Results for “Prediction Accuracy” — Page 11

NASA NTRS1990

Acoustic results of the Boeing model 360 whirl tower test

An evaluation is presented for whirl tower test results of the Model 360 helicopter's advanced, high-performance four-bladed composite rotor system intended to facilitate over-200-knot flight. During these performance measurements, acoustic data were acquired by seven microphones. A comparison of whirl-tower tests with theory indicate that theoretical prediction accuracies vary with both microphone position and the inclusion of ground reflection. Prediction errors varied from 0 to 40 percent of the measured signal-to-peak amplitude.

Watts, Michael E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Enhancements to Linear Stability-Based, CFD-integrated Transition Prediction for High-Speed Flows

Combining linear stability calculations with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations has great potential for the automated modeling of high-speed flows, especially when adequate information about the configuration and the disturbance environment is available. However, a significant impediment to the applicability of this technique is the lack of an efficient method to calculate the crucial amplification ratio corresponding to the onset of transition in hypersonic flows. This ratio, also known as the "transition N-factor," is dependent upon the freestream disturbance environment as well as the surface properties of the test article. In response to the need for an engineering solution to predict the transition N-factor within conventional hypersonic wind tunnels, this paper presents a data-driven correlation that expands the existing correlations from straight circular cones with a narrow range of half angles to a broader array of axisymmetric configurations. Furthermore, when tested against a chosen dataset that was not used in its calibration, the suggested correlation shows good predictive accuracy with an RMS error of only 6.9%. Although similar accuracy may also be achieved via existing correlations based on similar datasets, predictions based on the proposed correlation have the advantage of not requiring an extensive amount of configuration-specific data. Practical applications often have access to the input parameters needed for this correlation, such as the freestream disturbance intensity, Mach number, and body-based slenderness Reynolds number. Additionally, this correlation outperforms the traditional assumption of a constant N-factor, particularly for configurations with blunted nose geometries. The development of this correlation is grounded in an extensive dataset encompassing conical models with body half-angles varying between 5 degrees and 16 degrees, Mach numbers ranging from 5 to 14, and nosetip-based Reynolds numbers approaching the transition reversal limit for blunt-nosed cones.

CFD↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flight Mechanics Analysis of Low-Earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator

The Low-Earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) successfully demonstrated the capability of an inflatable aeroshell. Prior to launch, flight mechanics analysis was conducted to better understand the predicted splashdown point of the re-entry vehicle and ejectable data recorder. Best estimated trajectory separation states were utilized to understand the LOFTID trajectory over the entire 36 minute launch window. Weather forecasting model were integrated into the simulation to improve trajectory prediction accuracy. Automation tools were developed to facilitate the rapid generation of trajectory predictions during operations. The resulting improvements to the flight mechanics modeling and simulation allowed for pre-launch splashdown point to be within 3 nautical miles of the actual splashdown point.

Rohan G Deshmukh↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Enhancements to Linear Stability-Based, CFD-integrated Transition Prediction for High-Speed Flows

Combining linear stability calculations with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations has great potential for the automated modeling of high-speed flows, especially when adequate information about the configuration and the disturbance environment is available. However, a significant impediment to the applicability of this technique is the lack of an efficient method to calculate the crucial amplification ratio corresponding to the onset of transition in hypersonic flows. This ratio, also known as the "transition N-factor," is dependent upon the freestream disturbance environment as well as the surface properties of the test article. In response to the need for an engineering solution to predict the transition N-factor within conventional hypersonic wind tunnels, this paper presents a data-driven correlation that expands the existing correlations from straight circular cones with a narrow range of half angles to a broader array of axisymmetric configurations. Furthermore, when tested against a chosen dataset that was not used in its calibration, the suggested correlation shows good predictive accuracy with an RMS error of only 6.9%. Although similar accuracy may also be achieved via existing correlations based on similar datasets, predictions based on the proposed correlation have the advantage of not requiring an extensive amount of configuration-specific data. Practical applications often have access to the input parameters needed for this correlation, such as the freestream disturbance intensity, Mach number, and body-based slenderness Reynolds number. Additionally, this correlation outperforms the traditional assumption of a constant N-factor, particularly for configurations with blunted nose geometries. The development of this correlation is grounded in an extensive dataset encompassing conical models with body half-angles varying between 5 degrees and 16 degrees, Mach numbers ranging from 5 to 14, and nosetip-based Reynolds numbers approaching the transition reversal limit for blunt-nosed cones.

CFD↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flight Mechanics Analysis of Low-Earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID)

The Low-Earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) successfully demonstrated the capability of an inflatable aeroshell. Prior to launch, flight mechanics analysis was conducted to better understand the predicted splashdown point of the re-entry vehicle and ejectable data recorder. Best estimated trajectory separation states were utilized to understand the LOFTID trajectory over the entire 36 minute launch window. Weather forecasting model were integrated into the simulation to improve trajectory prediction accuracy. Automation tools were developed to facilitate the rapid generation of trajectory predictions during operations. The resulting improvements to the flight mechanics modeling and simulation allowed for pre-launch splashdown point to be within 3 nautical miles of the actual splashdown point.

Rohan Deshmukh↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep learning with mixup augmentation for improved pore detection during additive manufacturing

In additive manufacturing (AM), process defects such as keyhole pores are difficult to anticipate, affecting the quality and integrity of the AM-produced materials. Hence, considerable efforts have aimed to predict these process defects by training machine learning (ML) models using passive measurements such as acoustic emissions. This work considered a dataset in which keyhole pores of a laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) experiment were identified using X-ray radiography and then registered both in space and time to acoustic measurements recorded during the LPBF experiment. Due to AM’s intrinsic process controls, where a pore-forming event is relatively rare, the acoustic datasets collected during monitoring include more non-pores than pores. In other words, the dataset for ML model development is imbalanced. Moreover, this imbalanced and sparse data phenomenon remains ubiquitous across many AM monitoring schemes since training data is nontrivial to collect. Hence, we propose a machine learning approach to improve this dataset imbalance and enhance the prediction accuracy of pore-labeled data. Specifically, we investigate how data augmentation helps predict pores and non-pores better. This imbalance is improved using recent advances in data augmentation called Mixup, a weak-supervised learning method. Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are trained on original and augmented datasets, and an appreciable increase in performance is reported when testing on five different experimental trials. When ML models are trained on original and augmented datasets, they achieve an accuracy of 95% and 99% on test datasets, respectively. We also provide information on how dataset size affects model performance. Lastly, we investigate the optimal Mixup parameters for augmentation in the context of CNN performance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep learning with mixup augmentation for improved pore detection during additive manufacturing

In additive manufacturing (AM), process defects such as keyhole pores are difficult to anticipate, affecting the quality and integrity of the AM-produced materials. Hence, considerable efforts have aimed to predict these process defects by training machine learning (ML) models using passive measurements such as acoustic emissions. This work considered a dataset in which keyhole pores of a laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) experiment were identified using X-ray radiography and then registered both in space and time to acoustic measurements recorded during the LPBF experiment. Due to AM’s intrinsic process controls, where a pore-forming event is relatively rare, the acoustic datasets collected during monitoring include more non-pores than pores. In other words, the dataset for ML model development is imbalanced. Moreover, this imbalanced and sparse data phenomenon remains ubiquitous across many AM monitoring schemes since training data is nontrivial to collect. Hence, we propose a machine learning approach to improve this dataset imbalance and enhance the prediction accuracy of pore-labeled data. Specifically, we investigate how data augmentation helps predict pores and non-pores better. This imbalance is improved using recent advances in data augmentation called Mixup, a weak-supervised learning method. Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are trained on original and augmented datasets, and an appreciable increase in performance is reported when testing on five different experimental trials. When ML models are trained on original and augmented datasets, they achieve an accuracy of 95% and 99% on test datasets, respectively. We also provide information on how dataset size affects model performance. Lastly, we investigate the optimal Mixup parameters for augmentation in the context of CNN performance.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Discovery of unconventional and nonintuitive self-assembling peptide materials using experiment-driven machine learning

Prediction of peptide secondary structure is challenging because of complex molecular interactions, sequence-specific behavior, and environmental factors. Traditional design strategies, based on hydrophobicity and structural propensity, can be biased and could indeed prevent discovery of interesting, diverse, and unconventional peptides with desired nanostructure assembly. Using β sheet formation in pentapeptides as a case study, we used an integrated high-throughput experimental workflow and an artificial intelligence–driven active learning framework to improve prediction accuracy of self-assembly. By focusing on sequences where machine learning (ML) predictions deviate from conventional design strategies, we synthesized and tested 268 pentapeptides, successfully finding 96 forming β sheet assemblies, including unconventional sequences (e.g., ILFSM, LMISI, MITIY, MISIW, and WKIYI) not predicted by traditional methods. Our ML models outperformed conventional β sheet propensity tables, revealing useful chemical design rules. A web interface is provided to facilitate community access to these models. This work highlights the value of ML-driven approaches in overcoming the limitations of current peptide design strategies.

Talluri, Y. Nissi [Indian Inst. of Technology (IIT↗

DOE OSTI2022

Flux balance analysis of the ammonia-oxidizing bacterium Nitrosomonas europaea ATCC19718 unravels specific metabolic activities while degrading toxic compounds

The ammonia-oxidizing bacterium Nitrosomonas europaea has been widely recognized as an important player in the nitrogen cycle as well as one of the most abundant members in microbial communities for the treatment of industrial or sewage wastewater. Its natural metabolic versatility and extraordinary ability to degrade environmental pollutants (e.g., aromatic hydrocarbons such as benzene and toluene) enable it to thrive under various harsh environmental conditions. Constraint-based metabolic models constructed from genome sequences enable quantitative insight into the central and specialized metabolism within a target organism. These genome-scale models have been utilized to understand, optimize, and design new strategies for improved bioprocesses. Reduced modeling approaches have been used to elucidate Nitrosomonas europaea metabolism at a pathway level. However, genome-scale knowledge about the simultaneous oxidation of ammonia and pollutant metabolism of N . europaea remains limited. Here, we describe the reconstruction, manual curation, and validation of the genome-scale metabolic model for N . europaea , i GC535. This reconstruction is the most accurate metabolic model for a nitrifying organism to date, reaching an average prediction accuracy of over 90% under several growth conditions. The manually curated model can predict phenotypes under chemolithotrophic and chemolithoorganotrophic conditions while oxidating methane and wastewater pollutants. Calculated flux distributions under different trophic conditions show that several key pathways are affected by the type of carbon source available, including central carbon metabolism and energy production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1979

Pioneer Venus Star Sensor

The design predictions and orbital performance verification of the solid state star scanner used in the Onboard Attitude Control of the Pioneer Venus Orbiter and Multiprobe are presented. The star sensor extended the scanner use to active despin control, and it differs from previous sensors in solid state detection, redundant electronics for reliability, larger field of view, and large dynamic spin range. The star scanner hardware and design performance based on the ability to predict all noise sources, signal magnitudes, and expected detection probability are discussed. In-flight data collected to verify sensor ground calibration are tabulated and plotted in predicted accuracy curves. It is concluded that the Pioneer Venus Star Sensor has demonstrated predictable star calibration in the range of .1 magnitude uncertainties and usable star catalogs of 100 stars with very high probabilities of detection, which were much better than expected and well within the mission requirements.

Gutshall, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Radio interferometric measurements for accurate planetary orbiter navigation

The use of narrowband delta-VLBI to achieve accurate orbit determination is presented by viewing a spacecraft from widely separated stations followed by viewing a nearby quasar from the same stations. Current analysis is examined that establishes the orbit determination accuracy achieved with data arcs spanning up to 3.5 d. Strategies for improving prediction accuracy are given, and the performance of delta-VLBI is compared with conventional radiometric tracking data. It is found that accuracy 'within the fit' is on the order of 0.5 km for data arcs having delta-VLBI on the ends of the arcs and for arc lengths varying from one baseline to 3.5 d. The technique is discussed with reference to the proposed Venus Orbiting Imaging Radar mission.

Poole, S. R.↗

DOE OSTI2022

A deep learning-based direct forecasting of CO 2 plume migration

Accurate and timely forecasts of CO 2 plume evolution in geological reservoirs are crucial for CO 2 migration detection, leakage risk assessment, and operation decision support. Conventional forecasting usually adopts a two-step strategy, first calibrating reservoir model parameters against observations using iterative inverse modeling (or history matching) and then applying the calibrated model for predictions. This method impedes real-time forecasts due to the heavy computational demand in inverse modeling and may suffer from poor prediction accuracy because of the limited observation data. In this work, we propose a deep learning-based latent space mapping framework to forecast CO 2 plume migration directly by avoiding the inverse modeling. We first use the convolutional autoencoder to map the high-dimensional complex plume extents onto low-dimensional latent space. Next, we use neural networks to learn the relationship between the observation variables and the prediction latent variables. And then for given observation data, we infer the prediction values directly. This one-step direct forecasting is computationally efficient which requires a few number of parallelizable reservoir simulations and it can provide accurate predictions with limited observations by learning the observation-prediction relationship in the reduced dimension. Therefore, our proposed method enables an in-time forecast of dynamic CO 2 plume distributions. In this work, we demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of our method in predicting the CO 2 plume migration using four metrics such as plume area, centroid movement distance, and plume spreading in the primary and secondary directions. And the spatio-temporal evolution patterns of plume migration under diverse geological complexities are also accurately quantified.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Privacy-preserving federated learning: Application to behind-the-meter solar photovoltaic generation forecasting

Here, the growing usage of decentralized renewable energy sources has made accurate estimation of their aggregated generation crucial for maintaining grid flexibility and reliability. However, the majority of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems are behind-the-meter (BTM) and invisible to utilities, leading to three challenges in obtaining an accurate forecast of their aggregated output. Firstly, traditional centralized prediction algorithms used in previous studies may not be appropriate due to privacy concerns. There is therefore a need for decentralized forecasting methods, such as federated learning (FL), to protect privacy. Secondly, there has been no comparison between localized, centralized, and decentralized forecasting methods for BTM PV production, and the trade-off between prediction accuracy and privacy has not been explored. Lastly, the computational time of data-driven prediction algorithms has not been examined. This article presents a FL power forecasting method for PVs, which uses federated learning as a decentralized collaborative modeling approach to train a single model on data from multiple BTM sites. The machine learning network used to design this FL-based BTM PV forecasting model is a multi-layered perceptron, which ensures privacy and security of the data. Comparing the suggested FL forecasting model to non-private centralized and entirely private localized models revealed that it has a high level of accuracy, with an RMSE that is 18.17% lower than localized models and 9.9% higher than centralized models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Framework for Parametric and Predictive Uncertainty Quantification in the E3SM Land Model: Assessing Site and Observable Generalizability

Quantifying parametric uncertainty using observations from individual sites provides a critical foundation for Earth system modeling, serving as a necessary first step before scaling up to regional or global applications. This study introduces a novel computational framework designed to enhance model predictability by reducing parametric uncertainty and assessing site and observable generalizability using various observational constraints. The framework integrates five components: Model Simulation, Statistical Emulation, Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA), Model Calibration, and Model Prediction. Using the E3SM land model, we simulated site-level land-atmosphere carbon and energy fluxes from 2003 to 2007 across five evergreen needleleaf FLUXNET sites, perturbing 26 vegetation-related model parameters. Gaussian process emulators were employed to expedite GSA and model calibration. Four critical parameters that strongly influence selected land-atmosphere fluxes were identified by GSA. Bayesian approaches were used to infer parameter probability distributions leveraging synthetic data and FLUXNET observations. The results reveal that posterior parameter distributions vary significantly across different sites and observables within the same plant functional type. Probabilistic predictions indicate that parameters calibrated at one site can enhance predictive accuracy at other sites, although site heterogeneity may sometimes outweigh parametric uncertainty. Additionally, the probabilistic predictions demonstrate that calibration for one variable can also improve predictability for other variables, thereby maximizing predictive capabilities with limited observations. This framework provides a powerful approach for reducing parametric uncertainty in Earth system models and deepening our understanding of carbon dynamics and energy cycles. Its adaptability makes it a valuable tool for broader applications in Earth system modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Examination of probability distribution of mixture fraction in LES/FDF modelling of a turbulent partially premixed jet flame

An accurate prediction of the probability density function (PDF) of the mixture fraction is crucial to the prediction of combustion since mixing plays an important role in turbulent non-premixed and partially premixed flames. This work provides an assessment of the large-eddy simulation (LES)/filtered density function (FDF) method for the prediction of the PDF of the mixture fraction. The advantage of the LES/FDF method is that it provides the full predictions of the statistical distribution of scalars including the mixture fraction. The predictive accuracy of the method for the PDF is yet to be fully validated. Assessing the prediction of the PDF of the mixture fraction, a conserved scalar, is an important starting point. The Sydney/Sandia inhomogeneous inlet jet flame is used as a test case. A quick comparison shows that the LES/FDF predicted PDF shapes of the mixture fraction deviate significantly from the commonly presumed Beta-PDF as well as from the experimental data in the flame. Here, to examine the source of the discrepancy, we clarify the different PDF definitions used in the comparison among the predictions, measurements, and the presumed shape PDFs. The discrepancy observed from the comparison is largely reconciled by clarifying the difference between the PDFs that are examined. The PDF of the resolved mixture fraction is shown to be close to the Beta-PDF in both the measurements and predictions, while the PDF directly deduced from the LES/FDF particles deviates significantly from the Beta-PDF. A multimodal PDF analysis and a pseudo convergence analysis are conducted to provide plausible evidence to support the predicted multimodal PDF shapes. The sub-filter scale FDF is shown to be close to the Beta-PDF too through the construction of a synthesized PDF, which supports the common presumed Beta-PDF assumption used in the presumed PDF methods when combined with LES.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1979

Parameter identification applied to analytic hingeless rotor modeling

It is known that dynamic rotor inflow has a substantial effect on rotor dynamic loads. Despite the complexity of the unsteady flow problem, simple analytical models can be made useful by identifying their parameters from transient response tests without performing flow measurements. Two analytical inflow models are studied: the first is based on an equivalent blade Lock number, the second is based on a time delayed unsteady momentum inflow. In preparation for the experimental data analysis, identifications from simulated test data and an eigenvalue analysis are performed. The experimental results show that the first analytical inflow model is accurate for rotor advance ratios of 0.4 and above. For lower advance ratios, the second inflow model provides better accuracy. Prediction studies with experimental data not used for the identification are performed to determine the accuracy of the mathematical models.

Banerjee, D.↗

NASA NTRS1982

The Development of a Handbook for Astrobee F Performance and Stability Analysis

An astrobee F performance and stability analysis is presented, for use by the NASA Sounding Rocket Division. The performance analysis provides information regarding altitude, mach number, dynamic pressure, and velocity as functions of time since launch. It is found that payload weight has the greatest effect on performance, and performance prediction accuracy was calculated to remain within 1%. In addition, to assure sufficient flight stability, a predicted rigid-body static margin of at least 8% of the total vehicle length is required. Finally, fin cant angle predictions are given in order to achieve a 2.5 cycle per second burnout roll rate, based on obtaining 75% of the steady roll rate. It is noted that this method can be used by flight performance engineers to create a similar handbook for any sounding rocket series.

Wolf, R. S.↗

NASA NTRS2016

A-Priori Tuning of Modified Magnussen Combustion Model

In the application of CFD to turbulent reacting flows, one of the main limitations to predictive accuracy is the chemistry model. Using a full or skeletal kinetics model may provide good predictive ability, however, at considerable computational cost. Adding the ability to account for the interaction between turbulence and chemistry improves the overall fidelity of a simulation but adds to this cost. An alternative is the use of simple models, such as the Magnussen model, which has negligible computational overhead, but lacks general predictive ability except for cases that can be tuned to the flow being solved. In this paper, a technique will be described that allows the tuning of the Magnussen model for an arbitrary fuel and flow geometry without the need to have experimental data for that particular case. The tuning is based on comparing the results of the Magnussen model and full finite-rate chemistry when applied to perfectly and partially stirred reactor simulations. In addition, a modification to the Magnussen model is proposed that allows the upper kinetic limit for the reaction rate to be set, giving better physical agreement with full kinetic mechanisms. This procedure allows a simple reacting model to be used in a predictive manner, and affords significant savings in computational costs for simulations.

Norris, A. T.↗