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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Beyond New START: Two Forecasts for Future Russian-US Arms Control

A world without the New START Treaty (NST) or treaty-based strategic arms control cannot simply be categorised as ‘unacceptable’.1 That world is possible. It has been increasing in likelihood for some time and thus it must be both understood and anticipated. Furthermore, the NST will expire on 5 February 2026 and it could disappear much sooner, depending on the actions of either Russia or the United States. No amount of positive thinking on the value of strategic arms control or talking points about the importance of the treaty can change its status as a hostage in the broader bilateral relationship.

Political science↗
DOE OSTI2022

Intentional and Responsible Energy Transitions: Integrating Design Choices in the Pursuit of Carbon-Neutral Futures

The transitions of energy systems to carbon neutrality are among is one of the most ambitious, complex, uncertain, significant, and transformative projects in human history. They will therefore demand extraordinarily thoughtful, informed, and careful leadership. In recent years, this project has reached an important turning point, with widespread agreement to decarbonize energy systems by 2050. We argue that the next step is to engage leaders in doing the work necessary to achieve that goal. Specifically, we argue that regional leaders, across sectors, should build collaborative initiatives to intentionally and responsibly design and advance regional energy transitions. These transitions will entail navigating uncertain and unknown terrain, requiring diverse organizations and communities to work together to chart and construct potential pathways, assess their implications, and collectively work to make progress. To address these challenges, we recommend adopting region-first, anticipatory, justice-oriented approaches. In such approachesthis process, regions can collaboratively identify, deliberate, design, and navigate toward endpoints along complex and shifting pathways that recognize that design will matter. Efuture energy systems will deeply shape and be shaped by the futures of both societies and economies. Transitions will therefore need to be inclusive, to provide broad public input into both how to proceed with transitions and the goals that guide their design.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

The 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Nuclear Supply Chains vs. Sanctions

The United States and European countries are unlikely to collectively approve of sanctions against Russian exports of nuclear fuel assemblies and uranium in the near term despite the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Rather than bearing the costs that cutting off Russian imports would have on domestic nuclear energy production, the United States and European countries are more likely to prefer developing alternative supply chains of nuclear fuel and enriched uranium to reduce dependence on Russian resources. This outlook is primarily based on two areas of evaluation: (1) comparison of the Russian-made reactor fuel supply chain within the European Union (EU) in 2014 following the annexation of Crimea and in 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine, and (2) the dependence of France and the United States on Russia’s exports of enriched uranium. Additionally, the potential impacts to Kazakh uranium exports if trade routes for nuclear resources through Russia became unavailable were considered as an additional factor in the push for disentanglement from Russian nuclear resources. This work utilized BACI, a database of harmonized international trade data at the product level drawn from the United Nations Comtrade Database and created by the French international economics research institute CEPII.1 Comparisons of imports and exports were based on the trade value in U.S. dollars as reported in BACI instead of the quantity of the traded product. This evaluation only considers import and export data up until 2021, since the trade data for 2022 is incomplete within the Comtrade Database for several of the key countries presented in this work, including Australia, Canada, Namibia, Niger, and Russia.

Political science↗