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At least 199 records · Page 11

Communicating the Needs of Climate Change Policy Makers to Scientists

This chapter will describe the challenges that earth scientists face in developing science data products relevant to decision maker and policy needs, and will describe strategies that can improve the two-way communication between the scientist and the policy maker. Climate change policy and decision making happens at a variety of scales - from local government implementing solar homes policies to international negotiations through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Scientists can work to provide data at these different scales, but if they are not aware of the needs of decision makers or understand what challenges the policy maker is facing, they are likely to be less successful in influencing policy makers as they wished. This is because the science questions they are addressing may be compelling, but not relevant to the challenges that are at the forefront of policy concerns. In this chapter we examine case studies of science-policy partnerships, and the strategies each partnership uses to engage the scientist at a variety of scales. We examine three case studies: the global Carbon Monitoring System pilot project developed by NASA, a forest biomass mapping effort for Silvacarbon project, and a forest canopy cover project being conducted for forest management in Maryland. In each of these case studies, relationships between scientists and policy makers were critical for ensuring the focus of the science as well as the success of the decision-making.

Brown, Molly E.↗

Evaluating the efficacy and equity of environmental stopgap measures

Contemporary environmental policy is rife with measures that do not fully resolve a problem, but instead are proposed to “buy time” for the development and future implementation of more durable solutions. In this perspective, we define such measures as “stopgap measures,” and examine examples from wildfire risk management, hydrochlorofluorocarbon regulation, and Colorado River water management. We introduce an analytical framework to assess stopgaps, and apply this framework to solar geoengineering, a controversial stopgap for climate action. Studying stopgaps as a novel category of policy and management measures can help us understand the why stopgaps emerge, and weigh the equity and efficacy of stopgaps against other policy proposals

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Efficient learning of power grid voltage control strategies via model-based deep reinforcement learning

Here this article proposes a model-based deep reinforcement learning (DRL) method to design emergency control strategies for short-term voltage stability problems in power systems. Recent advances show promising results for model-free DRL-based methods in power systems control problems. But in power systems applications, these model-free methods have certain issues related to training time (clock time) and sample efficiency; both are critical for making state-of-the-art DRL algorithms practically applicable. DRL-agent learns an optimal policy via a trial-and-error method while interacting with the real-world environment. It is also desirable to minimize the direct interaction of the DRL agent with the real-world power grid due to its safety-critical nature. Additionally, the state-of-the-art DRL-based policies are mostly trained using a physics-based grid simulator where dynamic simulation is computationally intensive, lowering the training efficiency. We propose a novel model-based DRL framework where a deep neural network (DNN)-based dynamic surrogate model (SM), instead of a real-world power grid or physics-based simulation, is utilized within the policy learning framework, making the process faster and more sample efficient. However, having stable training in model-based DRL is challenging because of the complex system dynamics of large-scale power systems. We addressed these issues by incorporating imitation learning to have a warm start in policy learning, reward-shaping, and multi-step loss in surrogate model training. Finally, we achieved 97.5% reduction in samples and 87.7% reduction in training time for an application to the IEEE 300-bus test system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Evaluation of the performance of distributed and centralized biomass technologies in rural China

Biomass fermentation and gasification are two types of biomass utilization technologies for residential households. Government plays an essential role in the diffusion of improved technologies. Cost-effectiveness analysis can provide the cost and abatement potentials of each alternative under a single abatement strategy; however, it is difficult for policy-makers to make an integrated assessment when multiple objectives are involved. This paper evaluates the performance of three distributed alternatives and two centralized alternatives for residential biomass use in rural China, including centralized biogas and centralized gasifier systems. An integrated assessment approach is built, which combines cost-benefit analysis, an entropy-weighting method, and a preference-ranking organization method for enrichment evaluations using the PROMETHEE approach. A total of 686 sample households in three regions of China were surveyed in this study. The centralized gasifier system and distributed household biogas were the top two alternatives for further development to meet the government’s 2020 development goal for biogas technology. The overall biomass utilization amount in the prioritized scenario is about three times that of the business-as-usual scenario by 2020. Furthermore, this study can provide significant insights for China’s policy-makers to draft strategic policies and countermeasures that will promote the development of renewable energy in China.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Optimum equipment maintenance/replacement policy. Part 2: Markov decision approach

Dynamic programming was utilized as an alternative optimization technique to determine an optimal policy over a given time period. According to a joint effect of the probabilistic transition of states and the sequence of decision making, the optimal policy is sought such that a set of decisions optimizes the long-run expected average cost (or profit) per unit time. Provision of an alternative measure for the expected long-run total discounted costs is also considered. A computer program based on the concept of the Markov Decision Process was developed and tested. The program code listing, the statement of a sample problem, and the computed results are presented.

Charng, T.↗

Modeling the evolution of the US opioid crisis for national policy development

The opioid crisis remains one of the greatest public health challenges in the United States. The crisis is complex, with long delays and feedbacks between policy actions and their effects, which creates a risk of unintended consequences and complicates policy decision-making. We present SOURCE (Simulation of Opioid Use, Response, Consequences, and Effects), an operationally detailed national-level model of the opioid crisis, intended to enhance understanding of the crisis and guide policy decisions. Drawing on multiple data sources, SOURCE replicates how risks of opioid misuse initiation and overdose have evolved over time in response to behavioral and other changes and suggests how those risks may evolve in the future, providing a basis for projecting and analyzing potential policy impacts and solutions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring pluralism – Different stakeholder views of the expected and realised value of strategic environmental assessment (SEA)

This paper explores the concept of pluralism by evaluating different stakeholder views on the expected and realised value of strategic environmental assessment (SEA). The research followed a single embedded case study approach (of a national-level SEA for renewable energy planning in South Africa) and engaged with four different stakeholder groups, namely government, industry, conservation groups, and interested and affected parties (IAPs). A total of 21 different value expectations (VEs) across all four stakeholder groups were identified. However, stakeholder groups contrast significantly in terms of VEs, with government concerned more with process and mandate; industry with cost, efficiency and certainty; conservation groups with data and technical aspects; and the IAPs with local scale issues. In terms of realisation of VEs the results suggest that SEA does provide opportunities for learning; focussing project level EIA and providing spatial guidance on the location of projects. However, SEA was less successful in realising integration of decision making and alignment of policy within government. Recognition and better understanding of the pluralistic nature of expected and realised VEs could potentially improve the legitimacy of SEA processes and methodologies if they are designed and implemented to accommodate pluralism.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Innovative Separations Research and Development Needs for Advanced Fuel Cycles

Deployment of advanced nuclear reactors will inevitably introduce new challenges for devising and implementing an efficient, safe, and economical nuclear fuel cycle that meets society’s need for clean energy and expectations for environmental stewardship. The growing urgency for decarbonizing the US and global economies makes such technological challenges all the more compelling. The Office of Materials and Chemical Technologies within US Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy stewards the capabilities and knowledge relied upon by government policy makers to make informed decisions regarding nuclear fuel cycle options. Such decisions in turn rely on the development of efficient and economical separation methods that can accept the used nuclear fuel containing actinides and fission products (FPs) to recycle selected actinides, recover valuable by-products, and deliver waste streams that are suitable for disposal. To help guide the future direction of fuel cycle separations research, taking into account emerging technologies, the Office of Materials and Chemical Technologies sponsored the Innovative Separations R&D Needs for Advanced Fuel Cycles workshop, held virtually August 30–September 1, 2021. Based upon 60 contributed white papers, 6 plenary lectures, and 3 days of discussions, the outcome of the workshop and subsequent deliberations was the generation of this report identifying seven future research directions (FRDs) plus three crosscutting areas of research.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

The political economy of noncompliance in China: The case of industrial energy policy

One of the greatest challenges facing China today is the central government's ability to ensure that policies are implemented effectively at the local level, particularly policies that seek to make China's economic growth model more sustainable. These policies face resistance from local authorities and enterprises that benefit from the status quo. This raises a key research question: why do some provinces more fully implement these central policies? We argue the extent of local implementation is best conceptualized as a rational balance between economic and political incentives: localities with regulatory autonomy, low regulatory capacity and alternative interests will not fully implement policies that are at odds with local economic imperatives. By examining a critical case of central policy implementation—industrial energy intensity reduction in the eleventh five-year plan—this article demonstrates that, regardless of industrial makeup or economic development, provinces that have greater regulatory autonomy for noncompliance coupled with alternative economic interests do not, on average, perform as well. As a result, using a nested analysis approach this study illustrates this argument with both quantitative analysis and original case study evidence from fieldwork interviews.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Conceptual Framework for Developing Resilience Metrics for the Electricity, Oil, and Gas Sectors in the United States

This report has been written for the Department of Energy’s Energy Policy and Systems Analysis Office to inform their writing of the Quadrennial Energy Review in the area of energy resilience. The topics of measuring and increasing energy resilience are addressed, including definitions, means of measuring, and analytic methodologies that can be used to make decisions for policy, infrastructure planning, and operations. A risk-based framework is presented which provides a standard definition of a resilience metric. Additionally, a process is identified which explains how the metrics can be applied. Research and development is articulated that will further accelerate the resilience of energy infrastructures.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Reinforcement learning for adaptive maintenance policy optimization under imperfect knowledge of the system degradation model and partial observability of system states

Maintenance policy optimization usually is faced with challenges that arise from an imperfect knowledge of system degradation models and from the partial observability of system degradation states. Here, this paper proposes a reinforcement learning method to address these two challenges for a class of maintenance problems with Markov degradation processes. The reinforcement learning approach consists of a learning component and a planning component. Using sequentially collected observations, at each step of decision-making the learning component improves the knowledge of system degradation in terms of the probability distributions of the transition rates based on sequential Bayesian inference. Using the updated transition rates, at each step of decision-making the maintenance policy optimization problem is then formulated as a partially observable Markov decision problem, and the planning component computes the optimal maintenance policy that maximizes the expected cumulative reward. The proposed method is illustrated using a numerical example with repair and inspection maintenance actions. The result shows that as more observations are collected, the learning component progressively learns the true system degradation process, and the planning component adjusts the optimal maintenance policy accordingly as well, which leads to increased reward.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Potential Offshore Wind Energy Areas in California: An Assessment of Locations, Technology, and Costs

This report summarizes a study of possible offshore wind energy locations, technologies, and levelized cost of energy in the state of California between 2015 and 2030. The study was funded by the U.S. Department of the Interior's Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), the federal agency responsible for regulating renewable energy development on the Outer Continental Shelf. It is based on reference wind energy areas where representative technology and performance characteristics were evaluated. These reference areas were identified as sites that were suitable to represent offshore wind cost and technology based on physical site conditions, wind resource quality, known existing site use, and proximity to necessary infrastructure. The purpose of this study is to assist energy policy decision-making by state utilities, independent system operators, state government officials and policymakers, BOEM, and its key stakeholders. The report is not intended to serve as a prescreening exercise for possible future offshore wind development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Sustainable Development Tool Using Meta‐Analysis and DPSIR Framework — Application to Savannah River Basin, U.S.

Abstract The Savannah River Basin (SRB), a highly stressed southeastern river in United States is a conservation priority for State, Federal government, and nongovernment organizations. A four‐stage sustainable development tool was developed in this study using meta‐analysis and the drivers–pressures–state–impacts–responses (DPSIR) framework. Through the synthesis of ~150 references in the SRB this study addressed three research questions: (1) What were the drivers, pressures, state, impacts, and responses (components of DRSIR framework) in SRB (2) Can these components be grouped together from various studies in SRB (3) Can causal chain/loops be developed, and will they be useful for policy and decision making? First in the Stage 1, the state of the SRB was represented (S component of DPSIR), in Stage 2, the drivers–pressures–impacts–responses (DPIR components of DPSIR) were represented, in the third stage (Stage 3) the common units characterizing each DPSIR component were identified. Finally, in Stage 4, the causal chains/loops were developed and organized into scientific research at a level appropriate for building better understanding about SRB and helping stakeholders and policy makers in managing basin sustainability challenges. Although the tool was applied to SRB, the methodology is applicable to other river basins and ecosystems.

Pagan, Janeesa↗

Development of A Composite Drought Indicator for Operational Drought Monitoring in the MENA Region

This paper presents the composite drought indicator (CDI) that Jordanian, Lebanese, Moroccan, and Tunisian government agencies now produce monthly to support operational drought management decision making, and it describes their iterative co-development processes. The CDI is primarily intended to monitor agricultural and ecological drought on a seasonal time scale. It uses remote sensing and modelled data inputs, and it reflects anomalies in precipitation, vegetation, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration. Following quantitative and qualitative validation assessments, engagements with policymakers, and consideration of agencies’ technical and institutional capabilities and constraints, we made changes to CDI input data, modelling procedures, and integration to tailor the system for each national context. We summarize validation results, drought modelling challenges and how we overcame them through CDI improvements, and we describe the monthly CDI production process and outputs. Finally, we synthesize procedural and technical aspects of CDI development and reflect on the constraints we faced as well as trade-offs made to optimize the CDI for operational monitoring to support policy decision-making—including aspects of salience, credibility, and legitimacy—within each national context.

Karim Bergaoui↗

Optimizing equity in energy policy interventions: A quantitative decision-support framework for energy justice

This paper presents a quantitative framework to support policy decision-making around equitable energy interventions. By combining sociodemographic and techno-economic models in the energy space, we propose a linear programming model to calculate the optimal portfolio of energy investments that explicitly minimizes the energy burden of a given population of energy insecure households. The model is formulated as a multi-objective optimization suitable to support the decisions on weatherization and deployment of distributed energy resources. We illustrate our methodology with a case study involving a population of 14,043 energy insecure households in Wayne County, Detroit, United States.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Benefits of Incorporating Shipping Containers into the Climate Change Adaption Plans at NASA Wallops Flight Facility

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration has several centers and facilities located near the coast that are undoubtedly susceptible to climate change. One of those facilities is Wallops Flight Facility on the Eastern Shore of Virginia which is separated into three areas: Main Base, Mainland, and the Island. Wallops Island has numerous buildings and assets that are vulnerable to flood inundation, intense storms, and storm surge. The shoreline of Wallops Island is prone to beach erosion and is slated for another beach replenishment project in 2019. In addition, current climate projections for NASAs centers and facilities, conducted by the Climate Adaptation Science Investigators, warn of inevitable increases in annual temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, and extreme events such as heat waves. The aforementioned vulnerabilities Wallops Island faces in addition to the projections of future climate change reveal an urgency for NASA to adjust how new buildings at its centers and facilities near the coast are built to adapt to the inevitable effects of climate change. Although the agency has made strides to mitigate the effects of climate change by incorporating L.E.E.D. into new buildings that produce less greenhouse gas, the strides for the agency to institute clear climate adaptation policies for the buildings at its centers and facilities near the coast seem to lag behind. As NASA continues to formulate formidable climate change adaptation plans for its centers and facilities, an architectural trend that should be examined for its potential to replace several old buildings at Wallops Island is shipping containers buildings. Shipping containers or Intermodal Steel Building Units offer an array of benefits such as strength, durability, versatility, modular, and since they can be upcycled, they are also eco-friendly. Some disadvantages of shipping containers are they contain harmful chemicals, insulation must be added, fossil fuels must be used to transport them to the site, and multiple ISBUs are needed. However, the benefits of shipping container buildings could be utilized at NASA centers or facilities near the coast such as Wallops Island on new buildings that are designed to adapt to the impending effects of climate change. Thus, this Masters Research Project will explore how those benefits can be incorporated into the climate change adaptation plans at Wallops Island and make recommendations for policy guidelines and shipping container buildings specific to Wallops Island.

Sustainable Design↗

Is bigger better? An empirical analysis of waste management in New South Wales

Highlights: • We search for the most efficient cost structure for NSW household waste services. • We found that larger services are no longer efficient. • We found an optimal size for the range 12,000–20,000 inhabitants. • We found significant economies of output density for household waste collection. • We found economies of scope in joint provision of unsorted and recycling services. - Abstract: Across the world, rising demand for municipal solid waste services has seen an ongoing increase in the costs of providing these services. Moreover, municipal waste services have typically been provided through natural or legal monopolies, where few incentives exist to reduce costs. It is thus vital to examine empirically the cost structure of these services in order to develop effective public policies which can make these services more cost efficient. Accordingly, this paper considers economies of size and economies of output density in the municipal waste collection sector in the New South Wales (NSW) local government system in an effort to identify the optimal size of utilities from the perspective of cost efficiency. Our results show that – as presently constituted – NSW municipal waste services are not efficient in terms of costs, thereby demonstrating that ‘bigger is not better.’ The optimal size of waste utilities is estimated to fall in the range 12,000–20,000 inhabitants. However, significant economies of output density for unsorted (residual) municipal waste collection and recycling waste collection were found, which means it is advantageous to increase the amount of waste collected, but maintaining constant the number of customers and the intervention area.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The role of peer review and science for advancing public understanding

We live in a time of rapid change. The Covid-19 pandemic has united the world to understand and develop solutions to protect the health and wellbeing of society. At the same time, access to information on the internet and social media has exploded. People are exposed to information with many claims. Some of the information is relevant and accurate. A significant fraction may be inaccurate, biased, and potentially dangerous. With Covid-19, the information might point to cures that are toxic or risks that are not relevant. The scientific community has developed a process to develop and convey knowledge. The validation of results and their interpretation is critical to advancing knowledge. The core of the scientific process is based on developing a hypothesis-driven concept, designing and executing an experimental approach to prove or disprove the hypothesis, conducting a statistical analysis of the results to confirm their validity, and interpreting their meaning and impact. When their work is completed the scientist prepares to publish the work. Publication requires peer review. Hypotheses, experimental approaches, results, and interpretation of results are independently and anonymously reviewed by a scientific peer. The reviewers are selected based on their expertise in the field. The peer review process is essential for the integrity of the scientific process. Without a robust scientific process, society cannot discriminate between validated results and interpretations and biased, inaccurate, and potentially dangerous conjecture. With inaccurate science society and policy makers may make poor decisions that could hurt people and the world around them. While scientists should not censor information available to the public, scientists have a responsibility to inform the public. We must articulate what the scientific process is and why it is essential when considering the validity of information. Scientist are responsible for pointing out when public information has not been vetted through a scientific process and therefore cannot be considered conclusive. Scientists are responsible for highlighting information that has been generated and vetted with the scientific process. Over time, our goal is for the public to value the scientific process based on peer review. The public could become enlightened to the necessity for peer review to support decisions and action. Scientists need to contribute to advancing public knowledge. When invited to serve as a peer reviewer, scientists have a responsibility to contribute to the process. We all are extremely busy making peer review a distraction. While peer review does not directly benefit our own work and career, it benefits our chosen field of science. This is very important for the research area that our journal, Water-Energy Nexus, is focusing on. We cover the convergence of science and technology integrating across large spatial ranges (micro to global) in environmental pollution and the balance of remediation issues with energy use. Water-Energy Nexus wants to provide scientists with a platform for scientific debate and discussion on this rich and complicated topic. With the manuscripts submitted to WEN cover integrated research topics across a broad range of subjects from environment sciences through energy engineering, the role of peer review is essential. Peer review on a new submission to WEN should not be biased towards a specific science field. It should be done considering the complex nature of issues in the water-energy nexus. Scientists need to contribute to the public dialog. To accomplish these goals, we need to be honest, accurate, articulate, and use understandable language. The impact of WEN is very diverse affecting society in many ways. The scientific audience for WEN is diverse and readers may not fully understand the content of the papers outside their research expertise. Therefore, scientists, especially those who want to contribute to WEN, should work with communications specialists to convey message to benefit society. The audience includes the general public and researchers outside the author’s core specialty. While the peer-reviewed journal article is the cornerstone of our careers and critical for advancing scientific knowledge, a general interest story could benefit society even more. The author cannot lose sight that our work has two audiences, the science community, and more importantly, our family, friends, neighbors, and policy makers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗