Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “PROBABILITY”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11

Shadow Probability of Detection and False Alarm for Median-Filtered SAR Imagery

Median filtering reduces speckle in synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery while preserving edges, at the expense of coarsening the resolution, by replacing the center pixel of a sliding window by the median value. For shadow detection, this approach helps distinguish shadows from clutter more easily, while preserving shadow shape delineations. However, the nonlinear operation alters the shadow and clutter distributions and statistics, which must be taken into consideration when computing probability of detection and false alarm metrics. Depending on system parameters, median filtering can improve probability of detection and false alarm by orders of magnitude. Herein, we examine shadow probability of detection and false alarm in a homogeneous, ideal clutter background after median filter post-processing. Some comments on multi-look processing effects with and without median filtering are also made.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Analysis of Empirical Probability of Detection Data for Dissimilar Metal Welds

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC) Standard Review Plan (SRP) 3.6.3 describes leak-before- break (LBB) assessment procedures that can be used to assess compliance with the 10 CFR 50 Appendix A, General Design Criteria (GDC)-4 requirement that primary system pressure piping exhibit an extremely low probability of rupture. SRP 3.6.3 does not allow for assessment of piping systems with active degradation mechanisms, such as primary water stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC), which is currently occurring in systems that have been granted LBB approvals. To address those piping systems approved for LBB that are experiencing PWSCC, the NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) working cooperatively with the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) conducted a multi-year project to develop a probabilistic fracture mechanics code called eXtremely Low Probability of Rupture (xLPR) that can be used to assess compliance with the regulations. xLPR is a probabilistic computational tool capable of evaluating degradation in reactor coolant piping welds leading to rupture with extremely low probabilities of occurrence. This tool models the effects of active degradation mechanisms and the inspection and mitigation activities that are being undertaken to manage PWSCC degradation. Crack initiation and growth due to fatigue and primary water stress corrosion, along with mitigation methods (mechanical mitigation as well as chemical mitigation) and the effects of in-service inspection (ISI) and leak detection can be analyzed using this tool.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Probability Density Function for the spatial and intensity distribution of neutron-induced defects in Silicon

The ability to model semiconductor device degradation under neutron irradiation depends upon having a robust modeling capability for the neutron-induced collision cascades as well as a means to analytically fit the resulting probability distributions of defect production and ionizing energy deposition for purposes of extrapolation to low-probability, high-consequence scenarios. In this paper, the widely-utilized binary collision approximation codes MARLOWE and SRIM are deployed in conjunction with a critical examination of their parameterizations as benchmarked against higher-fidelity molecular dynamics simulations. A simple 3-parameter form described by the Generalized Logistic Distribution is shown to be a good fit to Frenkel pair and ionization intensity distributions in bulk silicon. The BCA codes are then applied to simulate cascades in 5 nm layers of a representative gate-all-around nanosheet transistor, where joint probability distributions of threshold levels of damage to multiple layers are evaluated.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

OSSOS. XXI. Collision Probabilities in the Edgeworth–Kuiper Belt

Here, we present results on the intrinsic collision probabilities, P {sub I}, and range of collision speeds, V {sub I}, as a function of the heliocentric distance, r, in the trans-Neptunian region. The collision speed is one of the parameters that serves as a proxy for a collisional outcome (e.g., disruption and scattering of fragments, or formation of a crater, as both processes are related to the impact energy). We utilize an improved and debiased model of the trans-Neptunian object (TNO) region from the “Outer Solar System Origins Survey” (OSSOS). It provides a well-defined model of TNO orbital distribution, based on multiple opposition observations of more than 1000 bodies. We compute collisional probabilities for the OSSOS models of the main classical, resonant, detached+outer, and scattering TNO populations. The intrinsic collision probabilities and collision speeds are computed using Öpik’s approach, as revised and modified by Wetherill for noncircular and inclined orbits. The calculations are carried out for each of the dynamical TNO groups, allowing for inter-population collisions as well as collisions within each TNO population, resulting in 28 combinations in total. Our results indicate that collisions in the trans-Neptunian region are possible over a wide range in (r, V {sub I}) phase space. Although collisions are calculated to happen within r ∼ 20–200 au and V {sub I} ∼ 0.1 km s{sup −1} to as high as V {sub I} ∼ 9 km s{sup −1}, most of the collisions are likely to happen at low relative velocities V {sub I} < 1 km s{sup −1} and are dominated by the main classical belt.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

GROWTH on S190426c: Real-time Search for a Counterpart to the Probable Neutron Star–Black Hole Merger using an Automated Difference Imaging Pipeline for DECam

The discovery of a transient kilonova following the gravitational-wave (GW) event GW170817 highlighted the critical need for coordinated rapid and wide-field observations, inference, and follow-up across the electromagnetic spectrum. In the southern hemisphere, the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) on the Blanco 4 m telescope is well suited to this task, as it is able to cover wide fields quickly while still achieving the depths required to find kilonovae like the one accompanying GW170817 to ~500 Mpc, the binary neutron star (NS) horizon distance for current generation of LIGO/Virgo collaboration (LVC) interferometers. Here, as part of the multi-facility follow-up by the Global Relay of Observatories Watching Transients Happen collaboration, we describe the observations and automated data movement, data reduction, candidate discovery, and vetting pipeline of our target-of-opportunity DECam observations of S190426c, the first possible NS-black hole merger detected in GWs. Starting 7.5 hr after S190426c, over 11.28 hr of observations, we imaged an area of 525 deg 2 ( r band) and 437 deg 2 ( z band); this was 16.3% of the total original localization probability, and nearly all of the probability visible from the southern hemisphere. The machine-learning-based pipeline was optimized for fast turnaround, delivering transients for human vetting within 17 minutes, on average, of shutter closure. We reported nine promising counterpart candidates 2.5 hr before the end of our observations. One hour after our data-taking ended (roughly 20 hr after the announcement of S190426c), LVC released a refined skymap that reduced the probability coverage of our observations to 8.0%, demonstrating a critical need for localization updates on shorter (~hour) timescales. Our observations yielded no detection of a bona fide counterpart to m z = 21.7 and m r = 22.2 at the 5σ level of significance, consistent with the refined LVC positioning. Here, we view these observations and rapid inferencing as an important real-world test for this novel end-to-end wide-field pipeline.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

On minimizing the probability of misclassification for linear feature selection

The use of techniques for feature selection permits treatment of classification problems in spaces of reduced dimensions. A method is considered of linear feature selection for n-dimensional observation vectors which belong to one of two populations, where each population is described by a known multivariate normal density function. More specifically, the problem of finding a 1xn transformation matrix B for which the probability of misclassification with respect to the one-dimensional transformed density functions was minimized was considered. Theoretical results are presented which give rise to a numerically tractable expression for the variation in the probability of misclassification with respect to B. Using this expression a computational procedure is discussed for obtaining a B which minimizes the probability of misclassification. Preliminary numerical results are discussed.

Guseman, L. F., Jr.↗

On the error probability of general tree and trellis codes with applications to sequential decoding

An upper bound on the average error probability for maximum-likelihood decoding of the ensemble of random binary tree codes is derived and shown to be independent of the length of the tree. An upper bound on the average error probability for maximum-likelihood decoding of the ensemble of random L-branch binary trellis codes of rate R = 1/n is derived which separates the effects of the tail length T and the memory length M of the code. It is shown that the bound is independent of the length L of the information sequence. This implication is investigated by computer simulations of sequential decoding utilizing the stack algorithm. These simulations confirm the implication and further suggest an empirical formula for the true undetected decoding error probability with sequential decoding.

Johannesson, R.↗

Vertex evoked potentials in a rating-scale detection task: Relation to signal probability

Vertex evoked potentials were recorded from human subjects performing in an auditory detection task with rating scale responses. Three values of a priori probability of signal presentation were tested. The amplitudes of the N1 and P3 components of the vertex potential associated with correct detections of the signal were found to be systematically related to the strictness of the response criterion and independent of variations in a priori signal probability. No similar evoked potential components were found associated with signal absent judgements (misses and correct rejections) regardless of the confidence level of the judgement or signal probability. These results strongly support the contention that the form of the vertex evoked response is closely correlated with the subject's psychophysical decision regarding the presence or absence of a threshold level signal.

Squires, K. C.↗

Sticking probabilities for the adsorption of hydrogen on clean Ni/111/, Ni/100/, Ni sheet and evaporated Ni films

Determination of the sticking probability for hydrogen adsorption on clean Ni(111), Ni(100), polycrystalline nickel sheet, and polycrystalline evaporated nickel films, using a modification of the reflection detector technique of Horgan and King (1970) for metal films. The initial sticking probability for hydrogen adsorption on a nickel film at 300 K by the proposed method is found to be 0.25 in comparison to 0.35 for hydrogen adsorption on a nickel film using the reflection detector technique. Also, the sticking probabilities on smooth single-crystal (111) and (100) planes and polycrystalline sheets are found to be lower than those on the rougher polycrystalline nickel films.

Horgan, A. M.↗

New methodology for assessing the probability of contaminating Mars

Methodology is proposed to assess the probability that the planet Mars will be contaminated by terrestrial microorganisms aboard a spacecraft. The present NASA methods are extended to permit utilization of detailed information on microbial characteristics, the lethality of release and transport mechanisms, and of other information about the Martian environment. Different types of microbial release are distinguished, and for each release mechanism a probability of growth is computed. Using this new methodology, an assessment was carried out for the 1975 Viking landings on Mars. The resulting probability of contamination for each Viking lander is 6 x 10 to the -6 power, and is amenable to revision as additional information becomes available.

North, D. W.↗

Forbidden transition probabilities for ground terms of ions with p or p5 configurations

Forbidden transition probabilities are given for ground term transitions of ions in the isoelectronic sequences with outer configurations 2s2 2p (B I), 2p5 (F I), 3s2 3p (Al I), and 3p5 (Cl I). Tables give, for each ion, the ground term interval, the associated wavelength, the quadrupole radial integral, the electric quadrupole transition probability, and the magnetic dipole transition probability. Coronal lines due to some of these ions have been observed, while others are yet to be observed. The tales for the Al I and Cl I sequences include elements up to germanium.

Kastner, S. O.↗

Solution to a gene divergence problem under arbitrary stable nucleotide transition probabilities

A nucleic acid chain, L nucleotides in length, with the specific base sequence B(1)B(2) ... B(L) is defined by the L-dimensional vector B = (B(1), B(2), ..., B(L)). For twelve given constant non-negative transition probabilities that, in a specified position, the base B is replaced by the base B' in a single step, an exact analytical expression is derived for the probability that the position goes from base B to B' in X steps. Assuming that each base mutates independently of the others, an exact expression is derived for the probability that the initial gene sequence B goes to a sequence B' = (B'(1), B'(2), ..., B'(L)) after X = (X(1), X(2), ..., X(L)) base replacements. The resulting equations allow a more precise accounting for the effects of Darwinian natural selection in molecular evolution than does the idealized (biologically less accurate) assumption that each of the four nucleotides is equally likely to mutate to and be fixed as one of the other three. Illustrative applications of the theory to some problems of biological evolution are given.

Holmquist, R.↗

The statistical significance of error probability as determined from decoding simulations for long codes

The very low error probability obtained with long error-correcting codes results in a very small number of observed errors in simulation studies of practical size and renders the usual confidence interval techniques inapplicable to the observed error probability. A natural extension of the notion of a 'confidence interval' is made and applied to such determinations of error probability by simulation. An example is included to show the surprisingly great significance of as few as two decoding errors in a very large number of decoding trials.

Massey, J. L.↗

Surface sticking probabilities for sputtered atoms of Nb-93 and Rh-103

The capture coefficient probabilities for sputtered atoms of Nb-93 and Rh-103 incident on Al2O3 surfaces were measured using the backscattering of MeV heavy ions. In the circumstance where the collecting surface is thickly covered, the sticking probabilities integrated over the energy distribution of sputtered atoms are 0.97 plus or minus 0.01 for Nb-93 and 0.95 plus or minus 0.01 for Rh-103 respectively. In the limit of negligible areal coverage of the collector, the accuracy is less; in this case the sticking probabilities are 0.97 + 0.03 or -0.08 and 0.95 + 0.05 or -0.08.

Weller, M. R.↗

Bivariate normal, conditional and rectangular probabilities: A computer program with applications

Some results for the bivariate normal distribution analysis are presented. Computer programs for conditional normal probabilities, marginal probabilities, as well as joint probabilities for rectangular regions are given: routines for computing fractile points and distribution functions are also presented. Some examples from a closed circuit television experiment are included.

Swaroop, R.↗

Tables of stark level transition probabilities and branching ratios in hydrogen-like atoms

The transition probabilities which are given in terms of n prime k prime and n k are tabulated. No additional summing or averaging is necessary. The electric quantum number k plays the role of the angular momentum quantum number l in the presence of an electric field. The branching ratios between stark levels are also tabulated. Necessary formulas for the transition probabilities and branching ratios are given. Symmetries are discussed and selection rules are given. Some disagreements for some branching ratios are found between the present calculation and the measurement of Mark and Wierl. The transition probability multiplied by the statistical weight of the initial state is called the static intensity J sub S, while the branching ratios are called the dynamic intensity J sub D.

Omidvar, K.↗

The dwarf spheroidal galaxy in Draco. III - Proper motion membership probabilities

PDS astrometry from photographic plates of the Draco dwarf galaxy is used to derive proper motion membership probabilities for stars measured in earlier photometric studies. It is found that removing probable foreground stars from the color-magnitude diagram of Draco tends to strengthen earlier conclusions about the structure of the giant and subgiant branches. The possible existence of an upper horizontal branch containing core helium-burning stars of more than one solar mass is still questionable. A reduced proper motion diagram for probable foreground stars is presented and discussed briefly.

Stetson, P. B.↗