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NASA NTRS1991

Aerosol backscatter measurements at 10.6 microns with airborne and ground-based CO2 Doppler lidars over the Colorado High Plains. II - Backscatter structure

Measurements of tropospheric aerosol volume backscatter coefficients at 10.6-microns wavelength were obtained with airborne continuous wave and ground-based pulsed CO2 Doppler lidars over the Colorado High Plains during a 20-day period in summer 1982. A persistent 'background' layer was found between 6- and 10-km altitude, with a generally uniform backscatter mixing ratio of about 10 to the -10th sq m/kg per sr. The upper boundary of this background layer varied with the tropopause height; the lower boundary varied with the strength and diurnal cycle of convective mixing in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). For quiescent meteorological conditions, the transition from the PBL to the background layer was usually very sharp, with backscatter decreases sometimes as large as 3 decades in about 70 m. Sharp gradients were also found at the boundaries of shallow (tens of meters) subvisible cirrus clouds. For less stable conditions, associated with vertical aerosol transport by deep cumuliform clouds, backscatter tended to decrease exponentially with altitude.

Bowdle, David A.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Remote Sensing by Spaceborne Lidar Aided by Surface Returns

Spaceborne lidar offers the possibility of global mapping of clouds and atmospheric aerosols. Mapping of cloud-top heights, multiple layers of thin clouds and the depth of the planetary boundary layer (PBL), given sufficient aerosols, are applications that should be fairly easy to accomplish from space with even a modest lidar system. However, the constraints imposed on spaceborne lidar by large ranging distances, limited available power/weight, and fast moving platforms present significant challenges to achieving more quantitative retrievals such as extracting aerosol extinction profiles, PBL optical depths and cloud optical depths. Ways to take advantage of the strong signals available from ground/sea reflections to improve upon atmospheric aerosol and cloud retrievals as well as to distinguish certain surface types are explored.

Reagan, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A physically based fractional cloudiness parameterization

A bulk PBL model with a simple internal vertical structure and a simple second-order closure has been developed for use as a PBL parameterization in a large-scale model. A method to determine the value of sigma, the fractional area covered by rising motion, is given. Large-eddy simulations of Moeng (1984, 1986) are used to validate various aspects of the parameterization.

Randall, David A.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Effects of biomass burning on summertime nonmethane hydrocarbon concentrations in the Canadian wetlands

Approximately 900 whole air samples were collected and assayed for selected C2-C10 hydrocarbons and seven halocarbons during the 5-week Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE) 3B conducted in eastern Canadian wetland areas. In more than half of the 46 vertical profiles flown, enhanced nonmethane hydrocarbon (NMHC) concentrations attributable to plumes from Canadian forest fires were observed. Urban plumes, also enhanced in many NMHCs, were separately identified by their high correlation with elevated levels of perchloroethene. Emission factors relative to ethane were determined for 21 hydrocarbons released from Canadian biomass burning. Using these data for ethane, ethyne, propane, n-butane, and carbon monoxide enhancements from the literature, global emissions of these four NMHCs were estimated. Because of its very short atmospheric lifetime and its below detection limit background mixing ratio, 1,3-butadiene is an excellent indicator of recent combustion. No statistically significant emissions of nitrous oxide, isoprene, or CFC 12 were observed in the biomass-burning plumes encountered during ABLE 3B. The presence of the short-lived biogenically emitted isoprene at altitudes as high as 3000 m implies that mixing within the planetary boundary layer (PBL) was rapid. Although background levels of the longer-lived NMHCs in this Canadian region increase during the fire season, isoprene still dominated local hydroxyl radical photochemistry within the PBL except in the immediate vicinity of active fires. The average biomass-burning emission ratios for hydrocarbons from an active fire sampled within minutes of combustion were, relative to ethane, ethene, 2.45; ethyne 0.57; propane, 0.25; propene, 0.73; propyne, 0.06; n-butane, 0.09; i-butane, 0.01; 1-butene, 0.14; cis-2-butene, 0.02; trans-2-butene, 0.03; i-butylene, 0.07; 1,3-butadiene, 0.12; n-pentane, 0.05; i-pentane, 0.03; 1-pentene, 0.06; n-hexane, 0.05; 1-hexene, 0.07; benzene, 0.37; toluene, 0.16.

Blake, D. R.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Reactive nitrogen oxides and ozone above a taiga woodland

Measurements of reactive nitrogen oxides (NO(x) and NO(y)) and ozone (O3) were made in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) above a taiga woodland in northern Quebec, Canada, during June-August, 1990, as part of NASA Artic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE) 3B. Levels of nitrogen oxides and O3 were strongly modulated by the synoptic scale meteorology that brought air from various source regions to the site. Industrial pollution from the Great Lakes region of the U.S. and Canada appears to be a major source for periodic elevation of NO(x), and NO(y) and O3. We find that NO/NO2 ratios at this site at midday were approximately 50% those expected from a simple photochemical steady state between NO(x) and O3, in contrast to our earlier results from the ABLE 3A tundra site. The difference between the taiga and tundra sites is likely due to much larger emissions of biogenic hydrocarbons (particularly isoprene) from the taiga vegetation. Hydrocarbon photooxidation leads to relatively rapid production of peroxy radicals, which convert NO to NO2, at the taiga site. Ratios of NO(x) to NO(y) were typically 2-3 times higher in the PBL during ABLE 3B than during ABLE 3A. This is probably the result of high PAN levels and suppressed formation of HNO3 from NO2 due to high levels of biogenic hydrocarbons at the ABLE 3B site.

Bakwin, Peter S.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Lidar Measurements of Tropospheric Wind Profiles with the Double Edge Technique

Research has established the importance of global tropospheric wind measurements for large scale improvements in numerical weather prediction. In addition, global wind measurements provide data that are fundamental to the understanding and prediction of global climate change. These tasks are closely linked with the goals of the NASA Earth Science Enterprise and Global Climate Change programs. NASA Goddard has been actively involved in the development of direct detection Doppler lidar methods and technologies to meet the wind observing needs of the atmospheric science community. A variety of direct detection Doppler wind lidar measurements have recently been reported indicating the growing interest in this area. Our program at Goddard has concentrated on the development of the edge technique for lidar wind measurements. Implementations of the edge technique using either the aerosol or molecular backscatter for the Doppler wind measurement have been described. The basic principles have been verified in lab and atmospheric lidar wind experiments. The lidar measurements were obtained with an aerosol edge technique lidar operating at 1064 nm. These measurements demonstrated high spatial resolution (22 m) and high velocity sensitivity (rms variances of 0.1 m/s) in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The aerosol backscatter is typically high in the PBL and the effects of the molecular backscatter can often be neglected. However, as was discussed in the original edge technique paper, the molecular contribution to the signal is significant above the boundary layer and a correction for the effects of molecular backscatter is required to make wind measurements. In addition, the molecular signal is a dominant source of noise in regions where the molecular to aerosol ratio is large since the energy monitor channel used in the single edge technique measures the sum of the aerosol and molecular signals. To extend the operation of the edge technique into the free troposphere we have developed a variation of the edge technique called the double edge technique. In this paper a ground based aerosol double edge lidar is described and the first measurements of wind profiles in the free troposphere obtained with this lidar will be presented.

Gentry, Bruce M.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Mesoscale Simulations of a Florida Sea Breeze Using the PLACE Land Surface Model Coupled to a 1.5-Order Turbulence Parameterization

A sophisticated land-surface model, PLACE, the Parameterization for Land Atmospheric Convective Exchange, has been coupled to a 1.5-order turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) turbulence sub-model. Both have been incorporated into the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) mesoscale model MM5. Such model improvements should have their greatest effect in conditions where surface contrasts dominate over dynamic processes, such as the simulation of warm-season, convective events. A validation study used the newly coupled model, MM5 TKE-PLACE, to simulate the evolution of Florida sea-breeze moist convection during the Convection and Precipitation Electrification Experiment (CaPE). Overall, eight simulations tested the sensitivity of the MM5 model to combinations of the new and default model physics, and initialization of soil moisture and temperature. The TKE-PLACE model produced more realistic surface sensible heat flux, lower biases for surface variables, more realistic rainfall, and cloud cover than the default model. Of the 8 simulations with different factors (i.e., model physics or initialization), TKE-PLACE compared very well when each simulation was ranked in terms of biases of the surface variables and rainfall, and percent and root mean square of cloud cover. A factor separation analysis showed that a successful simulation required the inclusion of a multi-layered, land surface soil vegetation model, realistic initial soil moisture, and higher order closure of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). These were needed to realistically model the effect of individual, joint, and synergistic contributions from the land surface and PBL on the CAPE sea-breeze, Lake Okeechobee lake breeze, and moist convection.

Lynn, Barry H.↗

NASA NTRS2002

An Intercomparison and Evaluation of Aircraft-Derived and Simulated CO from Seven Chemical Transport Models During the TRACE-P Experiment

Four global scale and three regional scale chemical transport models are intercompared and evaluated during NASA's TRACE-P experiment. Model simulated and measured CO are statistically analyzed along aircraft flight tracks. Results for the combination of eleven flights show an overall negative bias in simulated CO. Biases are most pronounced during large CO events. Statistical agreements vary greatly among the individual flights. Those flights with the greatest range of CO values tend to be the worst simulated. However, for each given flight, the models generally provide similar relative results. The models exhibit difficulties simulating intense CO plumes. CO error is found to be greatest in the lower troposphere. Convective mass flux is shown to be very important, particularly near emissions source regions. Occasionally meteorological lift associated with excessive model-calculated mass fluxes leads to an overestimation of mid- and upper- tropospheric mixing ratios. Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) depth is found to play an important role in simulating intense CO plumes. PBL depth is shown to cap plumes, confining heavy pollution to the very lowest levels.

Kiley, C. M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

New Challenges of Cloud Remote Sensing from Space

Clouds are recognized as a major source of uncertainties in predicting climate change. Lack of observational constraints on cloud processes has hindered the development of more reliable climate and weather models. With the advanced NASA EOS and A-Train sensors, we now have better knowledge about vertical distribution, water content, and occurrence frequency of global cloudiness. New ice water content (IWC) measurements from CloudSat and MLS have led to several improvements in model physics and parameterization schemes. MISR and GPS high-resolution data start to reveal deep insights on cloud processes and dynamicS in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). However, Earth sciences are still facing urgent needs to measure cloud microphysical properties, interactions between clouds and aerosol/precipitation, and processes that are coupled in 3-D space but not adequately sampled by the A-Train curtains or by the 2-D imageries. Submillimeter- wave, multi-angle imaging, and GPS radio occultation have emerged as promising remote sensing techniques to meet the challenges and enable new sciences for mid-tropospheric and PBL clouds.

Wu, Dong L.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Range Resolved CO2 Atmospheric Backscattering Measurements Using Fiber Lasers and RZPN Code Modulation

We report the use of a return-to- zero (RZPN) pseudo noise modulation technique for making range resolved measurements of CO2 within the planetary boundary layer (PBL) using commercial, off-the-shelf, components. Conventional, range resolved, DIAL measurements require laser pulse widths that are significantly shorter than the desired spatial resolution and necessitate using pulses whose temporal spacing is such that scattered returns from only a single pulse are observed by the receiver at any one time (for the PBL pulse separations must be greater than approximately 20 microseconds). This imposes significant operational limitations when using currently available fiber lasers because of the resulting low duty cycle (less than approximately 0.0005) and consequent low average laser output power. The RZPN modulation technique enables a fiber laser to operate at much higher duty cycles (approaching 0.04) thereby more effectively utilizing the amplifier's output. This increases the counts received by approximately two orders of magnitude. Our approach involves employing two distributed feedback lasers (DFB), each modulated by a different RPZN code, whose outputs are then amplified by a CW fiber amplifier. One laser is tuned to a CO2 absorption line; the other operates offline thereby permitting the simultaneous acquisition of both on and offline signals using independent RZPN codes. This minimizes the impact of atmospheric turbulence on the measurement. The on and offline signals are retrieved by deconvolving the return signal using the appropriate kernels.

Burris, John↗

NASA NTRS2012

Analysis of Satellite-Derived Arctic Tropospheric BrO Columns in Conjunction with Aircraft Measurements During ARCTAS and ARCPAC

We derive tropospheric column BrO during the ARCTAS and ARCPAC field campaigns in spring 2008 using retrievals of total column BrO from the satellite UV nadir sensors OMI and GOME-2 using a radiative transfer model and stratospheric column BrO from a photochemical simulation. We conduct a comprehensive comparison of satellite-derived tropospheric BrO column to aircraft in-situ observations ofBrO and related species. The aircraft profiles reveal that tropospheric BrO, when present during April 2008, was distributed over a broad range of altitudes rather than being confined to the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Perturbations to the total column resulting from tropospheric BrO are the same magnitude as perturbations due to longitudinal variations in the stratospheric component, so proper accounting of the stratospheric signal is essential for accurate determination of satellite-derived tropospheric BrO. We find reasonably good agreement between satellite-derived tropospheric BrO and columns found using aircraft in-situ BrO profiles, particularly when satellite radiances were obtained over bright surfaces (albedo> 0.7), for solar zenith angle < 80 and clear sky conditions. The rapid activation of BrO due to surface processes (the bromine explosion) is apparent in both the OMI and GOME-2 based tropospheric columns. The wide orbital swath of OMI allows examination of the evolution of tropospheric BrO on about hourly time intervals near the pole. Low surface pressure, strong wind, and high PBL height are associated with an observed BrO activation event, supporting the notion of bromine activation by high winds over snow.

Choi, S.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Translation of Land Surface Model Accuracy and Uncertainty into Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction

Land-atmosphere (L-A) Interactions playa critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (US-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF Simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

Santanello, Joseph A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Impact of Calibrated Land Surface Model Parameters on the Accuracy and Uncertainty of Land-Atmosphere Coupling in WRF Simulations

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Range-Specific High-resolution Mesoscale Model Setup

This report summarizes the findings from an AMU task to determine the best model configuration for operational use at the ER and WFF to best predict winds, precipitation, and temperature. The AMU ran test cases in the warm and cool seasons at the ER and for the spring and fall seasons at WFF. For both the ER and WFF, the ARW core outperformed the NMM core. Results for the ER indicate that the Lin microphysical scheme and the YSU PBL scheme is the optimal model configuration for the ER. It consistently produced the best surface and upper air forecasts, while performing fairly well for the precipitation forecasts. Both the Ferrier and Lin microphysical schemes in combination with the YSU PBL scheme performed well for WFF in the spring and fall seasons. The AMU has been tasked with a follow-on modeling effort to recommended local DA and numerical forecast model design optimized for both the ER and WFF to support space launch activities. The AMU will determine the best software and type of assimilation to use, as well as determine the best grid resolution for the initialization based on spatial and temporal availability of data and the wall clock run-time of the initialization. The AMU will transition from the WRF EMS to NU-WRF, a NASA-specific version of the WRF that takes advantage of unique NASA software and datasets. 37

Watson, Leela R.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Numerical Analysis Using WRF-SBM for the Cloud Microphysical Structures in the C3VP Field Campaign: Impacts of Supercooled Droplets and Resultant Riming on Snow Microphysics

Two distinct snowfall events are observed over the region near the Great Lakes during 19-23 January 2007 under the intensive measurement campaign of the Canadian CloudSat/CALIPSO validation project (C3VP). These events are numerically investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a spectral bin microphysics (WRF-SBM) scheme that allows a smooth calculation of riming process by predicting the rimed mass fraction on snow aggregates. The fundamental structures of the observed two snowfall systems are distinctly characterized by a localized intense lake-effect snowstorm in one case and a widely distributed moderate snowfall by the synoptic-scale system in another case. Furthermore, the observed microphysical structures are distinguished by differences in bulk density of solid-phase particles, which are probably linked to the presence or absence of supercooled droplets. The WRF-SBM coupled with Goddard Satellite Data Simulator Unit (G-SDSU) has successfully simulated these distinctive structures in the three-dimensional weather prediction run with a horizontal resolution of 1 km. In particular, riming on snow aggregates by supercooled droplets is considered to be of importance in reproducing the specialized microphysical structures in the case studies. Additional sensitivity tests for the lake-effect snowstorm case are conducted utilizing different planetary boundary layer (PBL) models or the same SBM but without the riming process. The PBL process has a large impact on determining the cloud microphysical structure of the lake-effect snowstorm as well as the surface precipitation pattern, whereas the riming process has little influence on the surface precipitation because of the small height of the system.

lake-effect↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Sensitivity of WRF Daily Summertime Simulations over West Africa to Alternative Parameterizations. Part 1: African Wave Circulation

The performance of the NCAR Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) as a West African regional-atmospheric model is evaluated. The study tests the sensitivity of WRF-simulated vorticity maxima associated with African easterly waves to 64 combinations of alternative parameterizations in a series of simulations in September. In all, 104 simulations of 12-day duration during 11 consecutive years are examined. The 64 combinations combine WRF parameterizations of cumulus convection, radiation transfer, surface hydrology, and PBL physics. Simulated daily and mean circulation results are validated against NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and NCEP/Department of Energy Global Reanalysis 2. Precipitation is considered in a second part of this two-part paper. A wide range of 700-hPa vorticity validation scores demonstrates the influence of alternative parameterizations. The best WRF performers achieve correlations against reanalysis of 0.40-0.60 and realistic amplitudes of spatiotemporal variability for the 2006 focus year while a parallel-benchmark simulation by the NASA Regional Model-3 (RM3) achieves higher correlations, but less realistic spatiotemporal variability. The largest favorable impact on WRF-vorticity validation is achieved by selecting the Grell-Devenyi cumulus convection scheme, resulting in higher correlations against reanalysis than simulations using the Kain-Fritch convection. Other parameterizations have less-obvious impact, although WRF configurations incorporating one surface model and PBL scheme consistently performed poorly. A comparison of reanalysis circulation against two NASA radiosonde stations confirms that both reanalyses represent observations well enough to validate the WRF results. Validation statistics for optimized WRF configurations simulating the parallel period during 10 additional years are less favorable than for 2006.

variability↗

NASA NTRS2014

Assessment of NASA GISS CMIP5 and Post-CMIP5 Simulated Clouds and TOA Radiation Budgets Using Satellite Observations. Part I: Cloud Fraction and Properties

Although many improvements have been made in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), clouds remain a significant source of uncertainty in general circulation models (GCMs) because their structural and optical properties are strongly dependent upon interactions between aerosol/cloud microphysics and dynamics that are unresolved in such models. Recent changes to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) turbulence and moist convection parameterizations in the NASA GISS Model E2 atmospheric GCM(post-CMIP5, hereafter P5) have improved cloud simulations significantly compared to its CMIP5 (hereafter C5) predecessor. A study has been performed to evaluate these changes between the P5 and C5 versions of the GCM, both of which used prescribed sea surface temperatures. P5 and C5 simulated cloud fraction (CF), liquid water path (LWP), ice water path (IWP), cloud water path (CWP), precipitable water vapor (PWV), and relative humidity (RH) have been compared to multiple satellite observations including the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System-Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (CERES-MODIS, hereafter CM), CloudSat- Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO; hereafter CC), Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E). Although some improvements are observed in the P5 simulation on a global scale, large improvements have been found over the southern midlatitudes (SMLs), where correlations increased and both bias and root-mean-square error (RMSE) significantly decreased, in relation to the previous C5 simulation, when compared to observations. Changes to the PBL scheme have resulted in improved total column CFs, particularly over the SMLs where marine boundary layer (MBL) CFs have increased by nearly 20% relative to the previous C5 simulation. Globally, the P5 simulated CWPs are 25 gm22 lower than the previous C5 results. The P5 version of the GCM simulates PWV and RH higher than its C5 counterpart and agrees well with the AMSR-E and AIRS observations. The moister atmospheric conditions simulated by P5 are consistent with the CF comparison and provide a strong support for the increase in MBL clouds over the SMLs. Over the tropics, the P5 version of the GCM simulated total column CFs and CWPs are slightly lower than the previous C5 results, primarily as a result of the shallower tropical boundary layer in P5 relative to C5 in regions outside the marine stratocumulus decks.

General circulation models↗

NASA NTRS2014

Using Ensemble Short-Term Initialized Coupled NASA GEOS5 Climate Model Integrations to Study Convective Bias Growth

The representation of convective processes, particularly deep convection in the tropics, remains a persistent problem in climate models. In fact structural biases in the distribution of tropical rainfall in the CMIP5 models is hardly different than that of the CMIP3 versions. Given that regional climate change at higher latitudes is sensitive to the configuration of tropical forcing, this persistent bias is a major issue for the credibility of climate change projections. In this study we use model output from integrations of the NASA Global Earth Observing System Five (GEOS5) climate modeling system to study the evolution of biases in the location and intensity of convective processes. We take advantage of a series of hindcast experiments done in support of the US North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) initiative. For these experiments a nine-month forecast using a coupled model configuration is made approximately every five days over the past 30 years. Each forecast is started with an updated analysis of the ocean, atmosphere and land states. For a given calendar month we have approximately 180 forecasts with daily means of various quantities. These forecasts can be averaged to essentially remove "weather scales" and highlight systematic errors as they evolve. Our primary question is to ask how the spatial structure of daily mean precipitation over the tropics evolves from the initial state and what physical processes are involved. Errors in parameterized convection, various water and energy fluxes and the divergent circulation are found to set up on fast time scales (order five days) compared to errors in the ocean, although SST changes can be non-negligible over that time. For the month of June the difference between forecast day five versus day zero precipitation looks quite similar to the difference between the June precipitation climatology and that from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). We focus much of our analysis on the influence of SST gradients, associated PBL baroclinicity enabled by turbulent mixing, the ensuing PBL moisture convergence, and how changes in these processes relate to convective precipitation bias growth over this short period.

Cohen, Charlie↗