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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

A Review of Recent Updates of Sea-Level Projections at Global and Regional Scales

Sea-level change (SLC) is a much-studied topic in the area of climate research, integrating a range of climate science disciplines, and is expected to impact coastal communities around the world. As a result, this field is rapidly moving, and the knowledge and understanding of processes contributing to SLC is increasing. Here, we discuss noteworthy recent developments in the projection of SLC contributions and in the global mean and regional sea-level projections. For the Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to SLC, earlier estimates have been confirmed in recent research, but part of the source of this contribution has shifted from dynamics to surface melting. New insights into dynamic discharge processes and the onset of marine ice sheet instability increase the projected range for the Antarctic contribution by the end of the century. The contribution from both ice sheets is projected to increase further in the coming centuries to millennia. Recent updates of the global glacier outline database and new global glacier models have led to slightly lower projections for the glacier contribution to SLC (7-17 cm by 2100), but still project the glaciers to be an important contribution. For global mean sea-level projections, the focus has shifted to better estimating the uncertainty distributions of the projection time series, which may not necessarily follow a normal distribution. Instead, recent studies use skewed distributions with longer tails to higher uncertainties. Regional projections have been used to study regional uncertainty distributions, and regional projections are increasingly being applied to specific regions, countries, and coastal areas.

glaciers↗
DOE OSTI2017

Grid Frequency Extreme Event Analysis and Modeling: Preprint

Sudden losses of generation or load can lead to instantaneous changes in electric grid frequency and voltage. Extreme frequency events pose a major threat to grid stability. As renewable energy sources supply power to grids in increasing proportions, it becomes increasingly important to examine when and why extreme events occur to prevent destabilization of the grid. To better understand frequency events, including extrema, historic data were analyzed to fit probability distribution functions to various frequency metrics. Results showed that a standard Cauchy distribution fit the difference between the frequency nadir and prefault frequency (f_(C-A)) metric well, a standard Cauchy distribution fit the settling frequency (f_B) metric well, and a standard normal distribution fit the difference between the settling frequency and frequency nadir (f_(B-C)) metric very well. Results were inconclusive for the frequency nadir (f_C) metric, meaning it likely has a more complex distribution than those tested. This probabilistic modeling should facilitate more realistic modeling of grid faults.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2014

Prediction of interest rate using CKLS model with stochastic parameters

The Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (CKLS) model is a popular one-factor model for describing the spot interest rates. In this paper, the four parameters in the CKLS model are regarded as stochastic. The parameter vector φ{sup (j)} of four parameters at the (J+n)-th time point is estimated by the j-th window which is defined as the set consisting of the observed interest rates at the j′-th time point where j≤j′≤j+n. To model the variation of φ{sup (j)}, we assume that φ{sup (j)} depends on φ{sup (j−m)}, φ{sup (j−m+1)},…, φ{sup (j−1)} and the interest rate r{sub j+n} at the (j+n)-th time point via a four-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a [4(m+1)+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. Treating the (j+n)-th time point as the present time point, we find a prediction interval for the future value r{sub j+n+1} of the interest rate at the next time point when the value r{sub j+n} of the interest rate is given. From the above four-dimensional conditional distribution, we also find a prediction interval for the future interest rate r{sub j+n+d} at the next d-th (d≥2) time point. The prediction intervals based on the CKLS model with stochastic parameters are found to have better ability of covering the observed future interest rates when compared with those based on the model with fixed parameters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Collection strategy, inner morphology, and size distribution of dust particles in ASDEX Upgrade

The dust collection and analysis strategy in ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) is described. During five consecutive operation campaigns (2007–2011), Si collectors were installed, which were supported by filtered vacuum sampling and collection with adhesive tapes in 2009. The outer and inner morphology (e.g. shape) and elemental composition of the collected particles were analysed by scanning electron microscopy. The majority of the ~50?000 analysed particles on the Si collectors of campaign 2009 contain tungsten—the plasma-facing material in AUG—and show basically two different types of outer appearance: spheroids and irregularly shaped particles. By far most of the W-dominated spheroids consist of a solid W core, i.e. solidified W droplets. A part of these particles is coated with a low-Z material; a process that seems to happen presumably in the far scrape-off layer plasma. In addition, some conglomerates of B, C and W appear as spherical particles after their contact with plasma. By far most of the particles classified as B-, C- and W-dominated irregularly shaped particles consist of the same conglomerate with varying fraction of embedded W in the B–C matrix and some porosity, which can exceed 50%. The fragile structures of many conglomerates confirm the absence of intensive plasma contact. Both the ablation and mobilization of conglomerate material and the production of W droplets are proposed to be triggered by arcing. The size distribution of each dust particle class is best described by a log-normal distribution allowing an extrapolation of the dust volume and surface area. The maximum in this distribution is observed above the resolution limit of 0.28 µm only for the W-dominated spheroids, at around 1 µm. The amount of W-containing dust is extrapolated to be less than 300 mg on the horizontal areas of AUG.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS2000

Possible Statistics of Two Coupled Random Fields: Application to Passive Scalar

We use the relativity postulate of scale invariance to derive the similarity transformations between two coupled scale-invariant random elds at different scales. We nd the equations leading to the scaling exponents. This formulation is applied to the case of passive scalars advected i) by a random Gaussian velocity field; and ii) by a turbulent velocity field. In the Gaussian case, we show that the passive scalar increments follow a log-Levy distribution generalizing Kraichnan's solution and, in an appropriate limit, a log-normal distribution. In the turbulent case, we show that when the velocity increments follow a log-Poisson statistics, the passive scalar increments follow a statistics close to log-Poisson. This result explains the experimental observations of Ruiz et al. about the temperature increments.

Dubrulle, B.↗
DOE OSTI2024

MENT-Flow: maximum-entropy phase space tomography using normalizing flows

Generative models can be trained to reproduce low-dimensional projections of high-dimensional phase space distributions. Normalizing flows are generative models that parameterize invertible transformations, allowing exact probability density evaluation and sampling. Consequently, flows are unbiased entropy estimators and could be used to solve the high-dimensional maximum-entropy tomography (MENT) problem. In this work, we evaluate a flow-based MENT solver (MENT-Flow) against exact maximum-entropy solutions and Minerbo's iterative MENT algorithm in two dimensions.

Hoover, Austin↗
DOE OSTI2015

Comparison of beam emission spectroscopy and gas puff imaging edge fluctuation measurements in National Spherical Torus Experiment

In this study, the close physical proximity of the Gas Puff Imaging (GPI) and Beam Emission Spectroscopy (BES) diagnostics on the National Spherical torus Experiment (NSTX) is leveraged to directly compare fluctuation measurements, and to study the local effects of the GPI neutral deuterium puff during H-mode plasmas without large Edge Localized Modes. The GPI and BES views on NSTX provide partially overlapping coverage of the edge and scrape-off layer (SOL) regions above the outboard midplane. The separation in the toroidal direction is 16°, and field lines passing through diagnostic views are separated by ∼20 cm in the direction perpendicular to the magnetic field. Strong cross-correlation is observed, and strong cross-coherence is seen for frequencies between 5 and 15 kHz. Also, probability distribution functions of fluctuations measured ∼3 cm inside the separatrix exhibit only minor deviations from a normal distribution for both diagnostics, and good agreement between correlation length estimates, decorrelation times, and structure velocities is found at the ±40% level. While the two instruments agree closely in many respects, some discrepancies are observed. Most notably, GPI normalized fluctuation levels exceed BES fluctuations by a factor of ∼9. BES mean intensity is found to be sensitive to the GPI neutral gas puff, and BES normalized fluctuation levels for frequencies between 1 and 10 kHz are observed to increase during the GPI puff.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

The evolution of galaxy shapes in CANDELS: from prolate to discy

In this study, we model the projected b/a – log a distributions of CANDELS star-forming main-sequence galaxies, where a (b) is the half-light semimajor (semiminor) axis of the galaxy images measured by GALFIT . We find that smaller a galaxies are rounder at all stellar masses M* and redshifts, so we include a when analysing b/a distributions. Approximating intrinsic shapes of the galaxies as triaxial ellipsoids and assuming a multivariate normal distribution of galaxy size and two shape parameters, we construct their intrinsic shape and size distributions to obtain the fractions of elongated (prolate), discy (oblate), and spheroidal galaxies in each redshift and mass bin. We find that galaxies tend to be prolate at low M* and high redshifts, and discy at high M* and low redshifts, qualitatively consistent with van der Wel et al., implying that galaxies tend to evolve from prolate to discy. These results are consistent with the predictions from simulations that the transition from prolate to oblate is caused by a compaction event at a characteristic mass range, making the galaxy centre baryon dominated. We give probabilities of a galaxy’s being elongated, discy, or spheroidal as a function of its M* , redshift, and projected b/a and a , which can facilitate target selections of galaxies with specific shapes at high redshifts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Exact and Near-Exact Distribution Approach to the Behrens–Fisher Problem

The Behrens–Fisher problem occurs when testing the equality of means of two normal distributions without the assumption that the two variances are equal. This paper presents approaches based on the exact and near-exact distributions for the test statistic of the Behrens–Fisher problem, depending on different combinations of even or odd sample sizes. We present the exact distribution when both sample sizes are odd and the near-exact distribution when one or both sample sizes are even. The near-exact distributions are based on a finite mixture of generalized integer gamma (GIG) distributions, used as an approximation to the exact distribution, which consists of an infinite series. The proposed tests, based on the exact and the near-exact distributions, are compared with Welch’s t-test through Monte Carlo simulations, in particular for small and unbalanced sample sizes. The results show that the proposed approaches are competent solutions to the Behrens–Fisher problem, exhibiting precise sizes and better powers than Welch’s approach for those cases. Numerical studies show that the Welch’s t-test tends to be a bit more conservative than the test statistics based on the exact or near-exact distribution, in particular when sample sizes are small and unbalanced, situations in which the proposed exact or near-exact distributions obtain higher powers than Welch’s t-test.

Hong, Serim↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long- and short-term temporal variability in cloud condensation nuclei spectra over a wide supersaturation range in the Southern Great Plains site

Abstract. When aerosol particles seed the formation of liquid water droplets in the atmosphere, they are called cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Different aerosols will act as CCN under different degrees of water supersaturation (relative humidity above 100 %), depending on their size and composition. In this work, we build and analyze a best-estimate CCN spectrum product, tabulated at ∼ 45 min resolution, generated using high quality data from seven independent instruments at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains site. The data product spans a large supersaturation range, from 0.0001 % to ∼ 30 %, and time period of 5 years, from 2009–2013, and is available on the ARM data archive. We leverage this added statistical power to examine relationships that are unclear in smaller datasets. Our analysis is performed in three main areas. First, probability distributions of many aerosol and CCN metrics are found to exhibit skewed log-normal distribution shapes. Second, clustering analyses of CCN spectra reveal that the primary drivers of CCN differences are aerosol number size distributions, rather than hygroscopicity or composition, especially at supersaturations above 0.2 %, while also allowing for a simplified understanding of seasonal and diurnal variations in CCN behavior. The predictive ability of using limited hygroscopicity data with accurate number size distributions to estimate CCN spectra is investigated, and the uncertainties of this approach are estimated. Third, the dynamics of CCN spectral clusters and concentrations are examined with cross-correlation and autocorrelation analyses. We find that CCN concentrations change rapidly on the timescale of 1–3 h, with some conservation beyond that which is greatest for the lower supersaturation region of the spectrum.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1981

Comparisons between Nimbus 6 satellite and rawinsonde soundings for several geographical areas

Good agreement between satellite and weighted (linearly interpolated) rawinsonde temperature and temperature derived parameters was found in most instances with the poorest agreement either near the tropopause region or near the ground. However, satellite moisture data are highly questionable. The smallest discrepancy between satellite and weighted mean rawinsonde temperature and parameters derived from temperature was found over water and the largest discrepancy was found over mountains. Cumulative frequency distributions show that discrepancies between satellite and rawinsonde data can be represented by a normal distribution except for dew point temperature.

Cheng, N. M.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Statistics of backscatter radar return from vegetation

The statistical characteristics of radar return from vegetation targets are investigated through a simulation study based upon the first-order scattered field. For simulation purposes, the vegetation targets are modeled as a layer of randomly oriented and spaced finite cylinders, needles, or discs, or a combination of them. The finite cylinder is used to represent a branch or a trunk, the needle for a stem or a coniferous leaf, and the disc for a decidous leaf. For a plane wave illuminating a vegetation canopy, simulation results show that the signal returned from a layer of disc- or needle-shaped leaves follows the Gamma distribution, and that the signal returned from a layer of branches resembles the log normal distribution. The Gamma distribution also represents the signal returned from a layer of a mixture of branches and leaves regardless of the leaf shapes. Results also indicate that the polarization state does not have a significant impact on signal distribution.

Karam, M. A.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Second-order statistical bootstrap for the uncertainty quantification of time-temperature-superposition analysis

Time-temperature superposition (TTS), which for decades has been a powerful method for long-term prediction from accelerated aging data, involves rigid-shifting isotherms in logarithmic time to produce a single master prediction curve. For simple thermo-rheological properties that accurately follow the TTS principle, the shifts can be easily determined, even manually by the eye. However, for many properties of interest, where the principle is obeyed only approximately, or the data is noisy, it is imperative to develop objective shifting techniques along with reliable uncertainty bounds. This work analyzes in detail the method of arclength-minimization as an unsupervised algorithm to determining optimum shifts and demonstrates that the method is nearly unbiased for all practical datasets with a variety of noise distributions. Moreover, if averaged over with-replacement (bootstrap) resamples, the predicted shifts follow a normal distribution, a fact that can be used to construct confidence interval for the master curve through a second-order bootstrap procedure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1977

Characterizations of linear sufficient statistics

A surjective bounded linear operator T from a Banach space X to a Banach space Y must be a sufficient statistic for a dominated family of probability measures defined on the Borel sets of X. These results were applied, so that they characterize linear sufficient statistics for families of the exponential type, including as special cases the Wishart and multivariate normal distributions. The latter result was used to establish precisely which procedures for sampling from a normal population had the property that the sample mean was a sufficient statistic.

Peters, B. C., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2016

MO-FG-CAMPUS-JeP3-01: A Statistical Model for Analyzing the Rotational Error of Single Iso-Center Technique

Purpose: To develop a generalized statistical model that incorporates the treatment uncertainty from the rotational error of single iso-center technique, and calculate the additional PTV (planning target volume) margin required to compensate for this error. Methods: The random vectors for setup and additional rotation errors in the three-dimensional (3D) patient coordinate system were assumed to follow the 3D independent normal distribution with zero mean, and standard deviations σx, σy, σz, for setup error and a uniform σR for rotational error. Both random vectors were summed, normalized and transformed to the spherical coordinates to derive the chi distribution with 3 degrees of freedom for the radical distance ρ. PTV margin was determined using the critical value of this distribution for 0.05 significant level so that 95% of the time the treatment target would be covered by ρ. The additional PTV margin required to compensate for the rotational error was calculated as a function of σx, σy, σz and σR. Results: The effect of the rotational error is more pronounced for treatments that requires high accuracy/precision like stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) or stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT). With a uniform 2mm PTV margin (or σx =σy=σz=0.7mm), a σR=0.32mm will decrease the PTV coverage from 95% to 90% of the time, or an additional 0.2mm PTV margin is needed to prevent this loss of coverage. If we choose 0.2 mm as the threshold, any σR>0.3mm will lead to an additional PTV margin that cannot be ignored, and the maximal σR that can be ignored is 0.0064 rad (or 0.37°) for iso-to-target distance=5cm, or 0.0032 rad (or 0.18°) for iso-to-target distance=10cm. Conclusions: The rotational error cannot be ignored for high-accuracy/-precision treatments like SRS/SBRT, particularly when the distance between the iso-center and target is large.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Slip band characteristics in the presence of grain boundaries in nickel-based superalloy

Shear strain profiles along slip bands in a modified Rolls-Royce nickel superalloy (RR1000) were analyzed for a tensile sample deformed by 2%. The strain increased with distance away from a grain boundary (GB), with maximum shear strain towards the center of the grain, indicating that dislocation nucleation generally occurred in the grain interior. The strain gradients in the neighborhood of the GBs were quantified and generally correlated with rotation about the active slip system line direction. This leads to an ability to determine the active slip system in these regions. The dislocation spacing and pileup stresses were inferred. The dislocation spacing closely follows an Eshelby analytical solution for a single ended pileup of dislocations under an applied stress. The distribution of pileup stress values for GBs of a given misorientation angle follows a log-normal distribution, with no correlation between the pileup stress and the GB misorientation angle. Furthermore, there is no observed correlation between various transmissivity factors and slip band pileup stress. Hence it appears that the obstacle strength of any of the observed GBs is adequate to facilitate the dislocation pileups present in the slip bands. However, slip band transmission does correlate with transmissivity factors, with the current study focusing on the Luster and Morris m’-factor. Observation of strain profiles of transmitted bands indicate dislocation nucleation locations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2010

X-Ray Variation Statistics and Wind Clumping in Vela X-1

We investigate the structure of the wind in the neutron star X-ray binary system Vela X-1 by analyzing its flaring behavior. Vela X-1 shows constant flaring, with some flares reaching fluxes of more than 3.0 Crab between 20-60 keV for several 100 seconds, while the average flux is around 250 mCrab. We analyzed all archival INTEGRAL data, calculating the brightness distribution in the 20-60 keV band, which, as we show, closely follows a log-normal distribution. Orbital resolved analysis shows that the structure is strongly variable, explainable by shocks and a fluctuating accretion wake. Analysis of RXTE ASM data suggests a strong orbital change of N. Accreted clump masses derived from the INTEGRAL data are on the order of 5 x 10(exp 19)-10(exp 21) g. We show that the lightcurve can be described with a model of multiplicative random numbers. In the course of the simulation we calculate the power spectral density of the system in the 20-100 keV energy band and show that it follows a red-noise power law. We suggest that a mixture of a clumpy wind, shocks, and turbulence can explain the measured mass distribution. As the recently discovered class of supergiant fast X-ray transients (SFXT) seems to show the same parameters for the wind, the link between persistent HMXB like Vela X-1 and SFXT is further strengthened.

Furst, Felix↗
DOE OSTI2017

Conductance distribution near the Anderson transition

Using a modification of the Shapiro approach, we introduce the two-parameter family of conductance distributions W(g), defined by simple differential equations, which are in the one-to-one correspondence with conductance distributions for quasi-one-dimensional systems of size L{sup d–1} × L{sub z}, characterizing by parameters L/ξ and L{sub z}/L (ξ is the correlation length, d is the dimension of space). This family contains the Gaussian and log-normal distributions, typical for the metallic and localized phases. For a certain choice of parameters, we reproduce the results for the cumulants of conductance in the space dimension d = 2 + ϵ obtained in the framework of the σ-model approach. The universal property of distributions is existence of two asymptotic regimes, log-normal for small g and exponential for large g. In the metallic phase they refer to remote tails, in the critical region they determine practically all distribution, in the localized phase the former asymptotics forces out the latter. A singularity at g = 1, discovered in numerical experiments, is admissible in the framework of their calculational scheme, but related with a deficient definition of conductance. Apart of this singularity, the critical distribution for d = 3 is well described by the present theory. One-parameter scaling for the whole distribution takes place under condition, that two independent parameters characterizing this distribution are functions of the ratio L/ξ.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗