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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

Salvaging Data Records with Missing Data: Data Imputation using the Multivariate t Distribution

When doing multivariate data analysis, one commonobstacle is the presence of incomplete observations, i.e., observationsfor which one or more key fields are blank. Missing datais often countered by deleting entire observations that containmissing data. The negative effects of deleting entire observationsare multiple: deleting observations reduces sample size andcan also result in biased inferences even if data is missing atrandom. In addition, knowledge contained within incompleteobservations is knowledge lost when they are deleted– and theeffort spent collecting that knowledge is effort wasted. Data imputationmethods, or methods of statistically “filling-in” missingdata, can help combat small sample sizes by using the existinginformation in partially complete observations with the end goalof producing less biased and higher confidence inferences. Whena sample from a multivariate normal population is only partiallycomplete, and the missing data meets appropriate assumptions(missing at random), robust data imputation of the missing datacan be implemented with monotone data augmentation (MDA)using the multivariate t distribution.Missing data imputation is applied to data from the NASA InstrumentCost Model (NICM) using the MDA algorithm underthe assumption of having a multivariate t distribution with fixeddegrees of freedom. A sensitivity analysis to the degrees offreedom parameter is presented to demonstrate robustness ofthe multivariate t distribution when dealing with small samplesas compared to the multivariate normal distribution.

DiNicola, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multiphenomenology explosion monitoring (MultiPEM): a general framework for data interpretation and yield estimation

SUMMARY An underground nuclear explosion (UNE) couples mechanical energy into crustal rock, which propagates as seismic and acoustic waves. These different physical phenomena transport, by different pathways, to standoff detectors at varying distances. The transport pathways attenuate the original signal but in different ways. Enabled by correct statistical weighting, signal attenuation models can be used to combine these disparate sensor data to estimate the yield of an UNE. Contemporaneous statistical models, used in yield estimation, can be improved with an advanced partition of error for these physical signal propagation models. We present an advanced multivariate approach to error modelling of multiphenomenology physical signatures. In addition to measurement error, our error model represents physical model biases as random with a physics-based covariance structure. To illustrate this proposed framework, we demonstrate the estimation of explosion yield using openly available seismic and acoustic data from chemical single-point explosions.

Williams, Brian J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Measuring the electron Yukawa coupling via resonant s-channel Higgs production at FCC-ee

The Future Circular Collider (FCC-ee) offers the unique opportunity of studying the Higgs Yukawa coupling to the electron, \(y_\mathrm {e}\) , via resonant s -channel production, \(\mathrm {e^+e^-}\rightarrow \mathrm {H}\) , in a dedicated run at \(\sqrt{s} = m_\mathrm {H}\) . The signature for direct Higgs production is a small rise in the cross sections for particular final states, consistent with Higgs decays, over the expectations for their occurrence due to Standard Model (SM) background processes involving \(\mathrm {Z}^*\) , \(\gamma ^*\) , or t -channel exchanges alone. Performing such a measurement is remarkably challenging for four main reasons. First, the low value of the e \(^\pm \) mass leads to a tiny \(y_\mathrm {e}\) coupling and correspondingly small cross section: \(\sigma _\mathrm {ee\rightarrow H} \propto m_\mathrm {e}^2 = 0.57\) fb accounting for initial-state \(\gamma \) radiation. Second, the \(\mathrm {e^+e^-}\) beams must be monochromatized such that the spread of their centre-of-mass (c.m.) energy is commensurate with the narrow width of the SM Higgs boson, \(\varGamma _\mathrm {H} = 4.1\) MeV, while keeping large beam luminosities. Third, the Higgs mass must also be known beforehand with a few-MeV accuracy in order to operate the collider at the resonance peak, \(\sqrt{s} = m_\mathrm {H}\) . Last but not least, the cross sections of the background processes are many orders-of-magnitude larger than those of the Higgs decay signals. A preliminary generator-level study of 11 Higgs decay channels using a multivariate analysis, which exploits boosted decision trees to discriminate signal and background events, identifies two final states as the most promising ones in terms of statistical significance: \(\mathrm {H}\rightarrow gg\) and \(\mathrm {H}\rightarrow \mathrm {W}\mathrm {W}^*\!\rightarrow \ell \nu \) + 2 jets. For a benchmark monochromatization with 4.1-MeV c.m. energy spread (leading to \(\sigma _\mathrm {ee\rightarrow H} = 0.28\) fb) and 10 ab \(^{-1}\) of integrated luminosity, a \(1.3\sigma \) signal significance can be reached, corresponding to an upper limit on the e \(^\pm \) Yukawa coupling at 1.6 times the SM value: |y e | < 1.6|y e SM | at 95% confidence level, per FCC-ee interaction point per year. Directions for future improvements of the study are outlined.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Multivariate Time Series Prediction Techniques for Emulating Noah-LSM Soil Moisture Outputs

Land surface models are crucial tools for many earth science applications including numerical weather prediction, water resource and crop monitoring, and climatological analysis. Given a set of atmospheric forcings, seasonal data, and static parameters, models like Noah-LSM solve for land surface quantities including skin temperature, sensible heat flux, and soil moisture. While these calculations are theoretically robust, they are often computationally expensive. Since artificial neural networks (ANNs) are universal function approximators, they can learn to emulate the output of a deterministic numerical model given a time series of input forcings, with the learned ANN having substantially shorter execution time. The ANN could efficiently parameterize other models, generate ensembles, and provide first-guess inputs for retrievals. As such, with the goal of developing a model that efficiently mimics the output of Noah-LSM given NLDAS2 forcings on a region covering much of the central US, we examine and compare several neural network architectures for the multi-horizon multivariate time series forecasting problem. Recent literature includes a diverse set of approaches including autoregressive architectures like LSTM and GRU, parametric and non-parametric statistical predictors (ForecastNet and MQRNN), self-attention (LSTM-attention-LSTM), and temporal convovlution (DeepTCN). We implement several of these models for the Noah-LSM prediction task, highlighting the features and challenges for each and providing practical insight on the training process.

Mitchell Dodson↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-Driven Insights into the Structural Essence of Plasticity in High-Entropy Alloys

The heterogeneous mechanical response of a crystalline alloy with multiple principal elements was investigated using molecular dynamics simulations. The local configuration of the alloy in its quiescent state was characterized by the variables derived from the gyration tensor and the atomic electronegativity. A multivariate analysis identified the geometric and chemical factors that influenced the atomic packing variations. Further, upon straining, the non-affine displacement exhibited spatial heterogeneity. A statistical correlation was established between the local yield events and the specific features of the local configuration. Our findings, validated by the performance metrics analysis, provided a structural criterion for the instability mechanisms in high-entropy alloys (HEAs) and enhanced the understanding of their plasticity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Yet Another Discriminant Analysis (YADA): A Probabilistic Model for Machine Learning Applications

This paper presents a probabilistic model for various machine learning (ML) applications. While deep learning (DL) has produced state-of-the-art results in many domains, DL models are complex and over-parameterized, which leads to high uncertainty about what the model has learned, as well as its decision process. Further, DL models are not probabilistic, making reasoning about their output challenging. In contrast, the proposed model, referred to as Yet Another Discriminate Analysis(YADA), is less complex than other methods, is based on a mathematically rigorous foundation, and can be utilized for a wide variety of ML tasks including classification, explainability, and uncertainty quantification. YADA is thus competitive in most cases with many state-of-the-art DL models. Ideally, a probabilistic model would represent the full joint probability distribution of its features, but doing so is often computationally expensive and intractable. Hence, many probabilistic models assume that the features are either normally distributed, mutually independent, or both, which can severely limit their performance. YADA is an intermediate model that (1) captures the marginal distributions of each variable and the pairwise correlations between variables and (2) explicitly maps features to the space of multivariate Gaussian variables. Numerous mathematical properties of the YADA model can be derived, thereby improving the theoretic underpinnings of ML. Validation of the model can be statistically verified on new or held-out data using native properties of YADA. However, there are some engineering and practical challenges that we enumerate to make YADA more useful.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sampling Size Optimization for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

Planetary protection (PP) is a discipline that focuses on minimizing the biological contamination of spacecraft to ensure compliance with international policy. Precise estimation of bioburden - the total number of microbes in or on spacecraft hardware – and the bioburden density are of utmost importance for PP. Such estimation is the way concordance with requirements is demonstrated, and it is critical for quantifying the potential risk of inadvertently contaminating other planetary bodies. Although a suite of molecular techniques have been used to thoroughly characterize and profile the microbiome of various cleanroom environments and spacecraft, the gold standard remains the physical enumeration of microbes via culturing of samples directly taken from spacecraft and associated surfaces. However, due to technical, budgetary, and programmatic constraints, only a manageable portion (around 10%) of the entire spacecraft surface is directly sampled with cotton swabs or wipes. To generate the bioburden current best estimate (CBE) for components not directly verifiable, the accepted approach is to apply a NASA-defined bioburden estimate based on the components’ manufacturing or assembly environment. This approach utilizes a prespecified bioburden density estimation that applies a maximum value across the total surface area of the specified component. For hardware components that underwent similar assembly processes, an implied bioburden is adopted for all components, based on a direct verification of a representative component within the same lot. Once all components have a CBE, the bioburden estimates are generated. In previous publication [ 1], we have shown that statistical risks quantifying the accuracy of the estimates for sampled, prespecified, and implied components can be derived and ranked. For mean squared error (MSE) function, the risks are available analytically and hence a cost function can be obtained to optimize the risks with respect to the sampling area and sampling cost. Since the sampling area and sampling cost are two complimentary variables, their sum will have a well-defined minimum. This paper presents the multivariate optimization of the integrated risk of an empirical Bayes estimator to determine the optimal sampling schedule for a given number of components. It is assumed that given a number of components, N, the bioburden density for each component can either be sampled, implied, or prespecified. The multivariate optimization searches through different options to sample, imply or prespecify the bioburden density for a component, and account for the component’s surface area and cost of sampling. The idea of the optimization is based on the observation that the statistical risk of using an estimator is a monotonically decreasing function of the sampled area. The larger the sampled area, the lower the risk of using the estimator as the estimator becomes more and more accurate as the sampling area increases. On the other hand, the cost of sampling is monotonically increasing as the sampled surface grows. This makes the risk and total cost of sampling complimentary variables which can be counterbalanced to achieve an optimal overall value with respect to the sampled surface. In this paper, the integrated risk has been used to quantify the accuracy of the estimator. This risk has been selected because it depends on neither the true value of the parameter nor on the collected data. The cost of each sample was also available to obtain the total cost of sampling of N components. The paper will present the results based on computer-simulated data as well as the data collected during the InSight mission. The computer-simulated data have N components with randomly generated total areas and each component assigned to one of the three categories according to the method of estimating of bioburden density: sampled, implied, or prespecified. The cost of sampling is also available. The cost of sampling is estimated based on a cost model provided by the planetary protection group at JPL. For this paper, the overall cost was assumed to be a linear function of exposure. The optimization process finds the allocation of the components to the three categories that minimizes the tradeoff between integrated risk and total cost. For the InSight data, a set of components is selected representing all three categories, and optimization is performed to determine if the performed allocation was optimal or if a better allocation could have been obtained. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first attempt not only perform an accurate estimation of bioburden density but also do it in an optimal way.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1994

Control of maglev vehicles with aerodynamic and guideway disturbances

A modeling, analysis, and control design methodology is presented for maglev vehicle ride quality performance improvement as measured by the Pepler Index. Ride quality enhancement is considered through active control of secondary suspension elements and active aerodynamic surfaces mounted on the train. To analyze and quantify the benefits of active control, the authors have developed a five degree-of-freedom lumped parameter model suitable for describing a large class of maglev vehicles, including both channel and box-beam guideway configurations. Elements of this modeling capability have been recently employed in studies sponsored by the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT). A perturbation analysis about an operating point, defined by vehicle and average crosswind velocities, yields a suitable linearized state space model for multivariable control system analysis and synthesis. Neglecting passenger compartment noise, the ride quality as quantified by the Pepler Index is readily computed from the system states. A statistical analysis is performed by modeling the crosswind disturbances and guideway variations as filtered white noise, whereby the Pepler Index is established in closed form through the solution to a matrix Lyapunov equation. Data is presented which indicates the anticipated ride quality achieved through various closed-loop control arrangements.

Flueckiger, Karl↗
DOE OSTI2023

Incidence and predictors of tuberculosis among children receiving antiretroviral therapy in the Wolaita Zone: A retrospective cohort study

Tuberculosis is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality among children living with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), mainly in sub-Saharan Africa, including Ethiopia. Tuberculosis remains a significant health concern for HIV-positive children in Ethiopia. There is a paucity of data on the incidence and predictors of tuberculosis among children living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in the Wolaita zone. Hence, this study aimed to assess the incidence and predictors of tuberculosis among children living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in the Wolaita zone between January 2010 to December 2020. A retrospective cohort study was conducted among 389 children receiving antiretroviral therapy in Wolaita zone health facilities between January 2010 to December 2020. The checklist was adapted from the standardized antiretroviral treatment (ART) follow-up form currently used by the institutions’ ART clinics. The Kaplan-Meier survival function and Log-rank were used to estimate the survival for each categorical variable to compare the survival between different exposure groups. Both bivariable and multivariable parametric survival Gompertz models were fitted to identify predictors of tuberculosis among HIV-positive children. The association was summarized using an adjusted hazard ratio (AHR), and statistical significance was declared at 95% CI and p-value < 0.05. The goodness of the model fit was assessed using a Cox-Snell residual plot. The incidence rate of tuberculosis among children living with HIV was 3.5 (95% CI 2.7–4.5) per 100 child years. World Health Organization clinical stage III or IV (AHR = 2.31, 95% CI [1.26, 4.22]), hemoglobin level <10 g/dL (AHR = 2.87, 95% CI [1.51, 5.45]), fair or poor ART adherence (AHR = 4.4, 95% CI[2.18, 9.05]), underweight (AHR = 2.55, 95% CI [1.45, 4.51]), age >10 years (AHR = 3.62; 95% CI [1.29, 10.0]), and cotrimoxazole preventive therapy (AHR = 0.23; 95% CI [0.08, 0.60]) were among the independent predictors of TB occurrence. The incidence of tuberculosis among children on ART was high. HIV-positive children presenting with advanced disease staging (III and IV), anemia, “fair” and “poor” ART adherence, underweight, age above ten years, and not receiving cotrimoxazole preventive therapy were at higher risk of TB. Therefore, counseling on ART adherence, early diagnosis, and prompt treatment of anemia and malnutrition are recommended to avert tuberculosis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1994

Some rules for polydimensional squeezing

The review of the following results is presented: For mixed state light of N-mode electromagnetic field described by Wigner function which has generic Gaussian form, the photon distribution function is obtained and expressed explicitly in terms of Hermite polynomials of 2N-variables. The momenta of this distribution are calculated and expressed as functions of matrix invariants of the dispersion matrix. The role of new uncertainty relation depending on photon state mixing parameter is elucidated. New sum rules for Hermite polynomials of several variables are found. The photon statistics of polymode even and odd coherent light and squeezed polymode Schroedinger cat light is given explicitly. Photon distribution for polymode squeezed number states expressed in terms of multivariable Hermite polynomials is discussed.

Manko, Vladimir I.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Circulating levels of micronutrients and risk of osteomyelitis: a Mendelian randomization study

Background Few observational studies have investigated the effect of micronutrients on osteomyelitis, and these findings are limited by confounding and conflicting results. Therefore, we conducted Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to evaluate the association between blood levels of eight micronutrients (copper, selenium, zinc, vitamin B12, vitamin C, and vitamin D, vitamin B6, vitamin E) and the risk of osteomyelitis. Methods We performed the two-sample and multivariable Mendelian randomization (MVMR) to investigate causation, where instrument variables for the predictor (micronutrients) were derived from the summary data of micronutrients from independent cohorts of European ancestry. The outcome instrumental variables were used from the summary data of European-ancestry individuals ( n = 486,484). The threshold of statistical significance was set at p < 0.00625. Results We found a significant causal association that elevated zinc heightens the risk of developing osteomyelitis in European ancestry individuals OR = 1.23 [95% confidence interval (CI) [1.07, 1.43]; p = 4.26E-03]. Similarly, vitamin B6 showed a similar significant causal effect on osteomyelitis as a risk factor OR = 2.78 (95% CI [1.34, 5.76]; p = 6.04E-03; in the secondary analysis). Post-hoc analysis suggested this result (vitamin B6). However, the multivariable Mendelian randomization (MVMR) provides evidence against the causal association between zinc and osteomyelitis OR = 0.98(95% CI [−0.11, 0.07]; p = 7.20E-1). After searching in PhenoScanner, no SNP with confounding factors was found in the analysis of vitamin B6. There was no evidence of a reverse causal impact of osteomyelitis on zinc and vitamin B6. Conclusion This study supported a strong causal association between vitamin B6 and osteomyelitis while reporting a dubious causal association between zinc and osteomyelitis.

Zhang, Xu↗
DOE OSTI2020

Atmospheric condition identification in multivariate data through a metric for total variation

Identification of atmospheric conditions within a multivariable atmospheric data set is a necessary step in the validation of emerging and existing high-fidelity models used to simulate wind plant flows and operation.Atmospheric conditions relevant for wind energy research include stationary conditions, given the need for well-converged statistics for model validation, as well as conditions observed less frequently, such as extreme atmospheric events, which are used in wind turbine and wind plant design.Aggregation of observations without regard to covariance between time series discounts the dynamical nature of the atmosphere and is not sufficiently representative of atmospheric conditions.Identification and characterization of continuous time periods with atmospheric conditions that have a high value for analysis or simulation set the stage for more advanced model validation and the development of real-time control and operational strategies.The current work explores a single metric for variation in a multivariate data sample that quantifies variability within each channel as well as covariance between channels.The total variation is used to identify conditions of interest that conform to desired objective functions, such as stationary conditions, ramps or waves of wind speed, and changes in wind direction.Total variation is somewhat sensitive to the presence of outliers in the input data, and the method is best complemented by quality-control procedures to ensure reliable results.The direct detection and classification of events or conditions of interest within atmospheric data sets is vital to developing our understanding of wind plant response and to the formulation of forecasting and control models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1980

Predicting major element mineral/melt equilibria - A statistical approach

Empirical equations have been developed for calculating the mole fractions of NaO0.5, MgO, AlO1.5, SiO2, KO0.5, CaO, TiO2, and FeO in a solid phase of initially unknown identity given only the composition of the coexisting silicate melt. The approach involves a linear multivariate regression analysis in which solid composition is expressed as a Taylor series expansion of the liquid compositions. An internally consistent precision of approximately 0.94 is obtained, that is, the nature of the liquidus phase in the input data set can be correctly predicted for approximately 94% of the entries. The composition of the liquidus phase may be calculated to better than 5 mol % absolute. An important feature of this 'generalized solid' model is its reversibility; that is, the dependent and independent variables in the linear multivariate regression may be inverted to permit prediction of the composition of a silicate liquid produced by equilibrium partial melting of a polymineralic source assemblage.

Hostetler, C. J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Chemometrics and Experimental Design for the Quantification of Nitrate Salts in Nitric Acid: Near-Infrared Spectroscopy Absorption Analysis

Implementing remote, real-time spectroscopic monitoring of radiochemical processing streams in hot cell environments requires efficiency and simplicity. The success of optical spectroscopy for the quantification of species in chemical systems highly depends on representative training sets and suitable validation sets. Selecting a training set (i.e., calibration standards) to build multivariate regression models is both time- and resource-consuming using standard one-factor-at-a-time approaches. This study describes the use of experimental design to generate spectral training sets and a validation set for the quantification of sodium nitrate (0–1 M) and nitric acid (0.1–10 M) using the near-infrared water band centered at 1440 nm. Partial least squares regression models were built from training sets generated by both D- and I-optimal experimental designs and a one-factor-at-a-time approach. The prediction performance of each model was evaluated by comparing the bias and standard error of prediction for statistical significance. D- and I-optimal designs reduced the number of samples required to build regression models compared with one-factor-at-a-time while also improving performance. Models must be confirmed against a validation sample set when minimizing the number of samples in the training set. The D-optimal design performed the best when considering both performance and efficiency by improving predictive capability and reducing number of samples in the training set by 64% compared with the one-factor-at-a-time approach. The experimental design approach objectively selects calibration and validation spectral data sets based on statistical criterion to optimize performance and minimize resources.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
NASA NTRS2004

Multivariate Error Covariance Estimates by Monte-Carlo Simulation for Assimilation Studies in the Pacific Ocean

One of the most difficult aspects of ocean state estimation is the prescription of the model forecast error covariances. The paucity of ocean observations limits our ability to estimate the covariance structures from model-observation differences. In most practical applications, simple covariances are usually prescribed. Rarely are cross-covariances between different model variables used. Here a comparison is made between a univariate Optimal Interpolation (UOI) scheme and a multivariate OI algorithm (MvOI) in the assimilation of ocean temperature. In the UOI case only temperature is updated using a Gaussian covariance function and in the MvOI salinity, zonal and meridional velocities as well as temperature, are updated using an empirically estimated multivariate covariance matrix. Earlier studies have shown that a univariate OI has a detrimental effect on the salinity and velocity fields of the model. Apparently, in a sequential framework it is important to analyze temperature and salinity together. For the MvOI an estimation of the model error statistics is made by Monte-Carlo techniques from an ensemble of model integrations. An important advantage of using an ensemble of ocean states is that it provides a natural way to estimate cross-covariances between the fields of different physical variables constituting the model state vector, at the same time incorporating the model's dynamical and thermodynamical constraints as well as the effects of physical boundaries. Only temperature observations from the Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean array have been assimilated in this study. In order to investigate the efficacy of the multivariate scheme two data assimilation experiments are validated with a large independent set of recently published subsurface observations of salinity, zonal velocity and temperature. For reference, a third control run with no data assimilation is used to check how the data assimilation affects systematic model errors. While the performance of the UOI and MvOI is similar with respect to the temperature field, the salinity and velocity fields are greatly improved when multivariate correction is used, as evident from the analyses of the rms differences of these fields and independent observations. The MvOI assimilation is found to improve upon the control run in generating the water masses with properties close to the observed, while the UOI failed to maintain the temperature and salinity structure.

Borovikov, Anna↗
DOE OSTI2024

Long-Term Statistical Process Monitoring of an Ultrafiltration Water Treatment Process

As water treatment technology has improved, the amount of available process data has substantially increased, making real-time, data-driven fault detection a reality. One shortcoming of the fault detection literature is that methods are usually evaluated by comparing their performance on hand-picked, short-term case studies, which yields no insight into long-term performance. In this work, we first evaluate multiple statistical and machine learning approaches for detrending process data. Then, we evaluate the performance of a PCA-based fault detection approach, applied to the detrended data, to monitor influent water quality, filtrate quality, and membrane fouling of an ultrafiltration membrane system for indirect potable reuse. Based on two short case studies, the adaptive lasso detrending method is selected, and the performance of the multivariate approach is evaluated over more than a year. The method is tested for different sets of three critical tuning parameters, and we find that for long-term, autonomous monitoring to be successful, these parameters should be carefully evaluated. However, in comparison with industry standards of simpler, univariate monitoring or daily pressure decay tests, multivariate monitoring produces substantial benefits in long-term testing.

ammonia↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic Simulation of Daily Suspended Sediment Concentration Using Multivariate Copulas

Estimation of daily suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is required for water resources and environment management. In this paper, a copula-based stochastic method was proposed for daily SSC simulation. Here, the multivariate copula function, constructed based on a bivariate copula and two bivariate conditional probability distributions, was used to model the temporal and cross dependence structures in daily SSCs. Then, the daily SSCs were generated by sampling from the multivariate conditional distribution. As a result, synthetic long-term SSCs data beyond the limited observation period can be provided for water resources managers, which plays a critical role in accurately estimating frequency and magnitude of extreme SSCs events. The proposed method was under rigorous examination by applying to a case study at Pingshan station in the Jinsha River Basin, China. Results showed that the generated daily SSC sequences not only had a high degree of accuracy in preserving the statistical characteristics of the daily SSC observations, but also captured both the temporal correlation and the cross-correlation between the daily streamflow and daily SSC. Specifically, the average daily relative error values corresponding to mean, standard deviation, skewness, lag-1 temporal correlation, and cross correlation were 0.87%, 4.24%, 7.52%, 0.51% and 2.02%, respectively. The multivariate copula framework proposed here can accurately and efficiently generate long-term daily SSC data for water resources management such as frequency analysis and risk assessment of extreme SSC events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Toward The Development of Hailstorm Climatologies Derived From Reanalyses and Infared/Passive Microwave Satellite Imagers

Geostationary satellite imagers, such as those of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and Meteosat series, provide both historical and near-real-time observations of cloud top patterns that are commonly associated with severe convection. Environmental conditions favorable for severe weather are thought to be represented well by reanalyses. Predicting exactly where convection and costly storm hazards like hail will occur using models or satellite imagery alone, however, is extremely challenging. The multivariate combination of satellite-observed cloud patterns with reanalysis environmental parameters, linked to United States Next Generation Weather Radar- (NEXRAD-) estimated Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH) using a deep neural network (DNN), enables estimation of potentially severe hail likelihood for any observed storm cell. These estimates are specifically designed to make hail likelihood distinctions based on satellite-indicated points of deep convection within environments favorable for storm development. We seek an approach that can be used to estimate climatological hailstorm frequency and risk throughout the historical satellite data record. This presentation demonstrates that statistical distributions of convective parameters from satellite and reanalysis show separation between non-severe/severe hailstorm classes for predictors including overshooting cloud top temperature and area characteristics, convective available potential energy, vertical wind shear, 500 hPa temperature, mid-level lapse rate, precipitable water, and convective inhibition. These complex, multivariate predictor relationships are exploited within a DNN to produce a hail likelihood metric with a critical success index of 0.504 and Heidke skill score of 0.403, which is exceptional among recent analogous hail studies. Furthermore, applications of the DNN to select case studies demonstrate good qualitative agreement between hail likelihood and MESH. These hail classifications are aggregated across an 11-year GOES-12/13 image database to derive a hail frequency and severity climatology, which denotes the Central Plains, the Midwest, and northwestern Mexico as being the most hail-prone regions within the domain studied. Opportunities for training and applying DNN-based hailstorm predictions to recently developed GOES-8/10/12/13/16 and Meteosat Second Generation convective storm detection and characterization climatologies over South America and South Africa, respectively, will also be presented.

Kristopher Bedka↗