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At least 199 records · Page 11

A Monte Carlo Approach to Modeling the Breakup of the Space Launch System EM-1 Core Stage with an Integrated Blast and Fragment Catalogue

The Liquid Propellant Fragment Overpressure Acceleration Model (L-FOAM) is a tool developed by Bangham Engineering Incorporated (BEi) that produces a representative debris cloud from an exploding liquid-propellant launch vehicle. Here it is applied to the Core Stage (CS) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Space Launch System (SLS launch vehicle). A combination of Probability Density Functions (PDF) based on empirical data from rocket accidents and applicable tests, as well as SLS specific geometry are combined in a MATLAB script to create unique fragment catalogues each time L-FOAM is run-tailored for a Monte Carlo approach for risk analysis. By accelerating the debris catalogue with the BEi blast model for liquid hydrogen / liquid oxygen explosions, the result is a fully integrated code that models the destruction of the CS at a given point in its trajectory and generates hundreds of individual fragment catalogues with initial imparted velocities. The BEi blast model provides the blast size (radius) and strength (overpressure) as probabilities based on empirical data and anchored with analytical work. The coupling of the L-FOAM catalogue with the BEi blast model is validated with a simulation of the Project PYRO S-IV destruct test. When running a Monte Carlo simulation, L-FOAM can accelerate all catalogues with the same blast (mean blast, 2 σ blast, etc.), or vary the blast size and strength based on their respective probabilities. L-FOAM then propagates these fragments until impact with the earth. Results from L-FOAM include a description of each fragment (dimensions, weight, ballistic coefficient, type and initial location on the rocket), imparted velocity from the blast, and impact data depending on user desired application. LFOAM application is for both near-field (fragment impact to escaping crew capsule) and far-field (fragment ground impact footprint) safety considerations. The user is thus able to use statistics from a Monte Carlo set of L-FOAM catalogues to quantify risk for a multitude of potential CS destruct scenarios. Examples include the effect of warning time on the survivability of an escaping crew capsule or the maximum fragment velocities generated by the ignition of leaking propellants in internal cavities.

Richardson, Erin↗

Modern Monte Carlo methods for efficient uncertainty quantification and propagation: A survey

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) includes the characterization, integration, and propagation of uncertainties that result from stochastic variations and a lack of knowledge or data in the natural world. Monte Carlo (MC) method is a sampling-based approach that has widely used for quantification and propagation of uncertainties. However, the standard MC method is often time-consuming if the simulation-based model is computationally intensive. This article gives an overview of modern MC methods to address the existing challenges of the standard MC in the context of UQ. Specifically, multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) extending the concept of control variates achieves a significant reduction of the computational cost by performing most evaluations with low accuracy and corresponding low cost, and relatively few evaluations at high accuracy and corresponding high cost. Multifidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) accelerates the convergence of standard Monte Carlo by generalizing the control variates with different models having varying fidelities and varying computational costs. Multimodel Monte Carlo method (MMMC), having a different setting of MLMC and MFMC, aims to address the issue of UQ and propagation when data for characterizing probability distributions are limited. Multimodel inference combined with importance sampling is proposed for quantifying and efficiently propagating the uncertainties resulting from small data sets. All of these three modern MC methods achieve a significant improvement of computational efficiency for probabilistic UQ, particularly uncertainty propagation. Finally, an algorithm summary and the corresponding code implementation are provided for each of the modern MC methods. The extension and application of these methods are discussed in detail.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Verification of Flux Sensitivity Estimates Using the MCNP Tally Perturbation Tool

Nuclear data is commonly used in applications such as nuclear nonproliferation, safeguards, and criticality safety. More specifically, nuclear data is used in predictive simulation codes like the Monte-Carlo N-Particle (MCNP ® ) transport code, Serpent, and similar radiation transport codes. The improvement of nuclear data enables more precise and accurate simulations, which result in higher fidelity designs and reduced operational/procedural costs. Therefore, the improvement of nuclear data is of paramount importance across the nuclear community. Nuclear data is improved and validated through integral benchmark experiments. The design of benchmark experiments is an extensive process; therefore, these experiments are often optimized on multiple characteristics, including sensitivity to the nuclear data, during the design process. Sensitivity is a measure of how much a quantity changes due to changes in independent variables such as experimental configuration. An experimental design that has a larger sensitivity to the nuclear data of interest will have a larger impact on the accuracy and precision of the validated data. Past integral benchmark experiments have primarily used the effective multiplication factor ($k_{eff}$) as the predominant measured quantity; however, experiments designed with other quantities in mind would be able to optimize on validating different areas of the nuclear data. A primary goal of the EUCLID project is to design, constrain, and reduce compensating errors in experiments focused on quantities other than $k_{eff}$ to better validate nuclear data across the board. Currently, there is a capability in MCNP to easily calculate the sensitivity of $k_{eff}$ to specific nuclear data of numerous reactions types and isotopes (KSEN card); however, the sensitivity of other quantities must be estimated in more strenuous manners. For example, the perturbation feature (PERT card) of MCNP can be used to estimate first-order sensitivities of some response in fixed source simulations. A recent announcement revealed that the first- and second-order perturbation features in previous releases of MCNP contained a bug. It was identified that particles were being scored into the wrong energy bin. The bug is in the most recent public release (MCNP6.2); however, a patch has been added to the most up to date version (MCNP6.2.2) that has not been released publicly. A direct comparison of the PERT card results for an F4 (neutron flux averaged over a cell) tally before and after the patch are shown in figure 1. All simulations used in the sensitivity estimates in this report were performed with MCNP6.2.2. This work verifies the patched MCNP perturbation tool by comparing first order sensitivities made using the PERT card to estimates made using manual perturbation of the compact ENDF (ACE) files.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Enhanced Monte Carlo Simulations for Electron Energy Loss Mitigation in Real-Space Nanoimaging of Thick Biological Samples and Microchips

High-resolution imaging using Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) is essential for applications such as grain boundary analysis, microchip defect characterization, and biological imaging. However, TEM images are often compromised by electron energy spread and other factors. In TEM mode, where the objective and projector lenses are positioned downstream of the sample, electron–sample interactions cause energy loss, which adversely impacts image quality and resolution. This study introduces a simulation tool to estimate the electron energy loss spectrum (EELS) as a function of sample thickness, covering electron beam energies from 300 keV to 3 MeV. Leveraging recent advances in MeV-TEM/STEM technology, which includes a state-of-the-art electron source with 2-picometer emittance, an energy spread of 3 × 10 -5 , and optimized beam characteristics, we aim to minimize energy spread. By integrating EELS capabilities into the BNL Monte Carlo (MC) simulation code for thicker samples, we evaluate electron beam parameters to mitigate energy spread resulting from electron–sample interactions. Based on our simulations, we propose an experimental procedure for quantitively distinguishing between elastic and inelastic scattering. The findings will guide the selection of optimal beam settings, thereby enhancing resolution for nanoimaging of thick biological samples and microchips.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Tycho: Realistically Simulating Exoplanets within Stellar Clusters. I. Improving the Monte Carlo Approach

To fully understand the diverse population of exoplanets, we must study their early lives within open clusters, the birthplace of most stars with masses >0.5M {sub ⊙} (including those currently in the field). Indeed, when we observe planets within clustered environments, we notice highly eccentric and odd systems that suggest the importance of dynamical pathways created by interactions with additional bodies (as in the case of HD 285507b). However, it has proven difficult to investigate these effects, as many current numerical solvers for the multi-scale N-body problem are simplified and limited in scope. To remedy this, we aim to create a physically complete computational solution to explore the role of stellar close encounters and interplanetary interactions in producing the observed exoplanet populations for both open cluster stars and field stars. We present a new code, Tycho, which employs a variety of different computational techniques, including multiple N-body integration methods, close encounter handling, modified Monte Carlo scattering experiments, and a variety of empirically informed initial conditions. We discuss the methodology in detail, and its implementation within the AMUSE software framework. Approximately 1% of our systems are promptly disrupted by star-star encounters contributing to the rogue planets occurrence rate. Additionally, we find that close encounters which that perturb long-period planets lead to 38.3% of solar-system-like planetary systems becoming long-term unstable.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Stochastic evaluation of four-component relativistic second-order many-body perturbation energies: A potentially quadratic-scaling correlation method

A second-order many-body perturbation correction to the relativistic Dirac-Hartree-Fock energy is evaluated stochastically by integrating 13-dimensional products of four-component spinors and Coulomb potentials. The integration in the real space of electron coordinates is carried out by the Monte Carlo (MC) method with the Metropolis sampling, whereas the MC integration in the imaginary-time domain is performed by the inverse-CDF (cumulative distribution function) method. The computational cost to reach a given relative statistical error for spatially compact but heavy molecules is observed to be no worse than cubic and possibly quadratic with the number of electrons or basis functions. This is a vast improvement over the quintic scaling of the conventional, deterministic second-order many-body perturbation method. The algorithm is also easily and efficiently parallelized with demonstrated 92% strong scalability going from 64 to 4096 processors for a fixed job size.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Verification of Upcoming MCNP Features For Estimating Nuclear Data Sensitivities in Fixed Source Simulations [Abstract]

Predictive simulation codes, like the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) transport code, are used throughout the nuclear community. These simulations are based on nuclear data. Maximizing the accuracy and precision of nuclear data maximizes the accuracy and precision of the overall simulation. This is imperative to applications that rely on simulations. For example, improving nuclear data for special nuclear material improves simulation accuracy in stockpile stewardship applications, which results in larger safety margins and decreased operational costs. The improvement and validation of nuclear data is completed through integral benchmark experiments. Past benchmarks have primarily been limited to focus on the effective multiplication factor ($\kappa$ eff ); broadening the purview of benchmarks beyond $\kappa$ eff -dependent nuclear data addresses nuclear data deficiencies. Different response types depend on different areas of nuclear data. This dependence is quantified as nuclear data sensitivity: the change in response due to perturbation of a contributing parameter. The larger the nuclear data sensitivity of a response, the more the experiment is influenced by the uncertainties of the nuclear data. The optimization of nuclear data sensitivities in future benchmarks would result in more detailed validation of lesser studied areas of nuclear data. Currently, direct sensitivity capabilities are not easily found for all experiment types and parameters. An MCNP tool to directly estimate the cross section sensitivities of tallied values is under development. Additionally, updates have been made to the perturbation feature of MCNP, which can be used in a less direct approach to estimating sensitivities. This work verifies these features to estimate nuclear data sensitivities in fixed source simulations of a 4.5-kg sphere of alpha- phase weapons-grade plutonium surrounded by differing amounts of copper and polyethylene. Integrated estimates made using MCNP’s tools were found to statistically agree with integrated estimates made from manual perturbation of nuclear data proving the validity of the MCNP tools.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Dynamic Response of an Electron Gas: Towards the Exact Exchange-Correlation Kernel

Precise calculations of dynamics in the homogeneous electron gas (jellium model) are of fundamental importance for design and characterization of new materials. In this work, we introduce a diagrammatic Monte Carlo technique based on algorithmic Matsubara integration that allows us to compute frequency and momentum resolved finite temperature response directly in the real frequency domain using series of connected Feynman diagrams. The data for charge response at moderate electron density are used to extract the frequency dependence of the exchange-correlation kernel at finite momenta and temperature. These results are as important for development of the time-dependent density functional theory for materials dynamics as ground state energies are for the density functional theory.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Estimating value of information for heliostat washing operations at solar thermal plants

Concentrating solar power (CSP) plants depend on thousands of heliostats whose reflectance declines as dust accumulates. Operators routinely measure reflectance to estimate soiling and, in turn, inform cleaning schedules, but the value of collecting more frequent or more accurate data has not been formally quantified. This study introduces a Monte Carlo discrete event simulation framework that integrates stochastic models of soiling, weather, and measurement error with a dynamic cleaning dispatch policy to estimate annual energy production and operations costs. Applied to two representative central-receiver field configurations, the results show that both the frequency and accuracy of reflectance measurements can meaningfully impact plant performance. In both case studies, reducing measurement intervals yields significant returns, with the energy gains greatly exceeding the cost of more frequent data collection. The simulation framework serves as a decision-support tool for CSP operators, allowing them to input site-specific soiling conditions, measurement accuracy, and survey frequency to evaluate the tradeoffs between data collection cost and energy recovery, and to identify measurement strategies that maximize plant profit.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Ghent Hybrid model in NuWro: a new neutrino single-pion production model in the GeV regime

Neutrino-induced single-pion production constitutes an essential interaction channel in modern neutrino oscillation experiments, with its products building up a significant fraction of the observable hadronic final states. Frameworks of oscillation analyses strongly rely on Monte Carlo neutrino event generators, which provide theoretical predictions of neutrino interactions on nuclear targets. Thus, it is crucial to integrate state-of-the-art single-pion production models with Monte Carlo simulations to prepare for the upcoming systematics-dominated landscape of neutrino measurements. In this work, we present the implementation of the Ghent Hybrid model for neutrino-induced single-pion production in the NuWro Monte Carlo event generator. The interaction dynamics includes coherently-added contributions from nucleon resonances and a non-resonant background, merged into the pythia branching predictions in the deep-inelastic regime, as instrumented by NuWro. This neutrino-nucleon interaction model is fully incorporated into the nuclear framework of the generator, allowing it to account for the influence of both initial- and final-state nuclear medium effects. We compare the predictions of this integrated implementation with recent pion production data from accelerator-based neutrino experiments. The results of the novel model show improved agreement of the generator predictions with the data and point to the significance of the refined treatment of the description of pion-production processes beyond the ∆ region.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Optical Imaging and Radiometric Modeling and Simulation

OPTOOL software is a general-purpose optical systems analysis tool that was developed to offer a solution to problems associated with computational programs written for the James Webb Space Telescope optical system. It integrates existing routines into coherent processes, and provides a structure with reusable capabilities that allow additional processes to be quickly developed and integrated. It has an extensive graphical user interface, which makes the tool more intuitive and friendly. OPTOOL is implemented using MATLAB with a Fourier optics-based approach for point spread function (PSF) calculations. It features parametric and Monte Carlo simulation capabilities, and uses a direct integration calculation to permit high spatial sampling of the PSF. Exit pupil optical path difference (OPD) maps can be generated using combinations of Zernike polynomials or shaped power spectral densities. The graphical user interface allows rapid creation of arbitrary pupil geometries, and entry of all other modeling parameters to support basic imaging and radiometric analyses. OPTOOL provides the capability to generate wavefront-error (WFE) maps for arbitrary grid sizes. These maps are 2D arrays containing digital sampled versions of functions ranging from Zernike polynomials to combination of sinusoidal wave functions in 2D, to functions generated from a spatial frequency power spectral distribution (PSD). It also can generate optical transfer functions (OTFs), which are incorporated into the PSF calculation. The user can specify radiometrics for the target and sky background, and key performance parameters for the instrument s focal plane array (FPA). This radiometric and detector model setup is fairly extensive, and includes parameters such as zodiacal background, thermal emission noise, read noise, and dark current. The setup also includes target spectral energy distribution as a function of wavelength for polychromatic sources, detector pixel size, and the FPA s charge diffusion modulation transfer function (MTF).

Ha, Kong Q.↗

A detailed experimental and modeling comparison of molecular radiative heat loss in a spark-ignition engine

Radiative heat transfer has been chiefly considered negligible in internal combustion engines, except for Diesel engines where soot radiation was recognized as a significant radiative transfer source. Only more recently, detailed simulations have shown that molecular radiation can be substantial as well. In extension to this, molecular radiative heat transfer can reach detectable levels of about 5–10% of the total heat transfer in spark-ignited engines. The broadband radiative nature of the significant emitting molecules, carbon dioxide and water, makes it necessary to address whether radiative trapping plays a substantial role in either total heat loss or energy redistribution within the cylinder. An experimental setup that allows measurements of the infrared emissions at a 2-crank-angle-degree resolution was developed to determine the importance of radiative trapping by carbon dioxide and water. Measurements were conducted in the well-characterized and documented TCC-III engine at the University of Michigan. The engine operated on a stoichiometric propane/air mixture at a speed of 1,300 RPM. Large Eddy Simulations with added line-by-line photon Monte-Carlo simulations of the molecular radiation were an integral part of this study to plan and devise the measurements. Post-processing of the simulation data included an accurate representation of the experimental volume from where infrared signals are collected. Additionally, the experimental data were used for validation of the photon Monte-Carlo simulations. Joint analysis of experimental and simulated spectra allowed quantifying the significance of radiative trapping. Results show the significant role of radiative trapping when predicting radiative heat transfer in the TCC-III engine.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Unified Approach to Polarons and Phonon-Induced Band Structure Renormalization

Ab initio calculations of the phonon-induced band structure renormalization are currently based on the perturbative Allen-Heine theory and its many-body generalizations. These approaches are unsuitable to describe materials where electrons form localized polarons. Here, we develop a self-consistent, many-body Green’s function theory of band structure renormalization that incorporates localization and self-trapping. Here, we show that the present approach reduces to the Allen-Heine theory in the weak-coupling limit, and to total energy calculations of self-trapped polarons in the strong-coupling limit. To demonstrate this methodology, we reproduce the path-integral results of Feynman and diagrammatic Monte Carlo calculations for the Fröhlich model at all couplings, and we calculate the zero point renormalization of the band gap of an ionic insulator including polaronic effects.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Understanding Phase and Interfacial Effects of Spall Fracture in Additively Manufactured Ti-5Al-5V-5Mo-3Cr

Additive manufactured Ti-5Al-5V-5Mo-3Cr (Ti-5553) is being considered as an AM repair material for engineering applications because of its superior strength properties compared to other titanium alloys. Here, we describe the failure mechanisms observed through computed tomography, electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD), and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) of spall damage as a result of tensile failure in as-built and annealed Ti-5553. We also investigate the phase stability in native powder, as-built and annealed Ti-5553 through diamond anvil cell (DAC) and ramp compression experiments. We then explore the effect of tensile loading on a sample containing an interface between a Ti-6Al-V4 (Ti-64) baseplate and additively manufactured Ti-5553 layer. Post-mortem materials characterization showed spallation occurred in regions of initial porosity and the interface provides a nucleation site for spall damage below the spall strength of Ti-5553. Preliminary peridynamics modeling of the dynamic experiments is described. Finally, we discuss further development of Stochastic Parallel PARticle Kinteic Simulator (SPPARKS) Monte Carlo (MC) capabilities to include the integration of alpha (α)-phase and microstructural simulations for this multiphase titanium alloy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Origin of Intense Electron Heating in Relativistic Blast Waves

The modeling of gamma-ray burst afterglow emission bears witness to strong electron heating in the precursor of Weibel-mediated, relativistic collisionless shock waves propagating in unmagnetized electron–ion plasmas. In this Letter, we propose a theoretical model, which describes electron heating via a Joule-like process caused by pitch-angle scattering in the decelerating, self-induced microturbulence and the coherent charge-separation field induced by the difference in inertia between electrons and ions. The emergence of this electric field across the precursor of electron–ion shocks is confirmed by large-scale particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations. Integrating the model using a Monte Carlo-Poisson method, we compare the main observables to the PIC simulations to conclude that the above mechanism can indeed account for the bulk of electron heating.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Semiclassical theory of unimolecular dissociation induced by a laser field

A semiclassical nonperturbative theory of direct photodissociation in a laser field is developed in which photon absorption and dissociation are treated in a unified fashion. This is achieved by visualizing nuclear dynamics as a representative particle moving on electronic-field surfaces. Methods are described for calculating dissociation rates and probabilities by Monte Carlo selection of initial conditions and integration of classical trajectories on these surfaces. This unified theory reduces to the golden rule expression in the weak-field and short-time limits, and predicts nonlinear behavior, i.e., breakdown of the golden rule expression in intense fields. Field strengths above which lowest-order perturbation theory fails to work have been estimated for some systems. Useful physical insights provided by the electronic-field representation have been illustrated. Intense field effects are discussed which are amenable to experimental observation. The semiclassical methods used here are also applicable to multiple-surface dynamics in fieldfree unimolecular and bimolecular reactions.

Yuan, J.-M.↗

Water Raman normalization of airborne laser fluorosensor measurements - A computer model study

The technique for normalizing airborne lidar measurements of chlorophyll fluoresence by the water Raman scattering signal is investigated for laser-excitation wavelengths of 480 and 532 nm using a semianalytic Monte Carlo methodology (SALMON). The signal-integration depth for chlorophyll fluorescence Z(90,F), is found to be insensitive to excitation wavelength and ranges from a maximum of 4.5 m in clearest waters to less than 1 m at a chlorophyll concentration of 20 microgram/liter. For excitation at 532 nm, the signal-integration depth for Raman scattering, Z(90,R), is comparable to Z(90,F). For excitation at 480 nm, Z(90,R) is four times as large as Z(90,F) in clearest waters but nearly equivalent at chlorophyll concentrations greater than 2-3 microgram/liter. Absolute signal levels are stronger with excitation at 480 nm than with excitation at 532 nm, but this advantage must be weighed against potential ambiguities resulting from different integration depths for the fluorescence and Raman scattering signals in clearer waters. To the precision of the simulations, Raman normalization produces effectively linear response to chlorophyll concentration for both excitation wavelengths.

Poole, L. R.↗

Realistic Covariance Prediction For the Earth Science Constellations

Routine satellite operations for the Earth Science Constellations (ESC) include collision risk assessment between members of the constellations and other orbiting space objects. One component of the risk assessment process is computing the collision probability between two space objects. The collision probability is computed via Monte Carlo techniques as well as numerically integrating relative probability density functions. Each algorithm takes as inputs state vector and state vector uncertainty information for both objects. The state vector uncertainty information is expressed in terms of a covariance matrix. The collision probability computation is only as good as the inputs. Therefore, to obtain a collision calculation that is a useful decision-making metric, realistic covariance matrices must be used as inputs to the calculation. This paper describes the process used by NASA Goddard's Earth Science Mission Operations Project to generate realistic covariance predictions for three of the ESC satellites: Aqua, Aura, and Terra

Duncan, Matthew↗