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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Particlization in fluid dynamical simulations of heavy-ion collisions: The IS3D module

The IS3D particlization module simulates the emission of hadrons from heavy-ion collisions via Monte-Carlo sampling of the Cooper–Frye formula which converts fluid dynamical information into local phase-space distributions for hadrons. The code package includes multiple choices for the non-equilibrium correction to these distribution functions: the 14-moment approximation, first-order Chapman–Enskog expansion, and two types of modified equilibrium distributions. This makes it possible to explore to what extent heavy-ion experimental data are sensitive to different choices for δf n , presently the main source of theoretical uncertainty in the particlization stage. Here, we validate our particle sampler with a high degree of precision by generating several million hadron emission events from a longitudinally boost-invariant hypersurface and comparing the event-averaged particle spectra and space–time distributions to the Cooper–Frye formula.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

First Observation of Neutrino Candidates in ProtoDUNE

The Neutrino Platform at CERN hosts two massive prototypes for the DUNE Far Detector to test the technology for the coming Horizontal Drift and Vertical Drift designs, almost perfectly on axis with the direction of the SPS beamline pointed towards the North Area. The 400 GeV/c SPS protons impacting on the T2 target area may produce exotic particles that could travel ~700 meters to the detectors, in addition to a substantial flux of neutrinos. Simulations of the neutrino flux demonstrate that thousands of neutrino interactions are expected per week in the active volume of NP04 spanning energies from a few GeV up to 180 GeV, constituting the main background for such search. The first step towards establishing a BSM physics program at the Neutrino Platform is therefore to observe neutrinos originating from the SPS beam. A sample of high-energy neutrino events in a DUNE FD-like LArTPC may also be of broader use to the DUNE collaboration. For example, by testing the performance of reconstruction algorithms on highly-energetic neutrino interactions with large hadronic showers. An initial neutrino search was performed by developing filters to remove cosmic events. After filtering, the remaining events were eye-scanned to identify neutrino candidates amongst the residual cosmic background. Over two of the available NP04 runs, 29 neutrino candidates were identified. A separate run taken with the SPS beam off yielded no neutrino candidates. An analysis is now under development that will use all available data, large Monte Carlo samples and full event reconstruction, with the aim of confirming whether NP04 is capable of observing feebly interacting particles originating from the SPS beam.

Pullia, Dario [CERN]↗
DOE OSTI2020

Monte Carlo simulation of order-disorder transition in refractory high entropy alloys: A data-driven approach

High entropy alloys (HEAs) are a series of novel materials that demonstrate many exceptional mechanical properties. To understand the origin of these attractive properties, it is important to investigate the thermodynamics and elucidate the evolution of various chemical phases. In this work, we introduce a machine learning approach to construct the effective Hamiltonian and study the thermodynamics of HEAs through canonical Monte Carlo simulation. The main characteristic of our method is to use pairwise interactions between atoms as the machine learning features and systematically improve the representativeness of the dataset using active learning from the Monte Carlo samples. We find this method produces highly robust and accurate effective Hamiltonians that give less than 0.1 mRy test error for all the three refractory HEAs: MoNbTaW, MoNbTaVW, and MoNbTaTiW. Using replica exchange to speed up the MC simulation, we calculated the specific heats and short-range order parameters in a wide range of temperatures. For all the studied materials, we find there are two major order-disorder transitions occurring respectively at T 1 and T 2 , where T 1 is near room temperature but T 2 is much higher. Further, we demonstrate that the transition at T 1 is caused by W and Nb while the one at T 2 is caused by the other elements. By comparing with experiments, the results demonstrate that the order-disorder transitions have a profound impact on the strength and ductility of HEAs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2013

Modeling Freedom From Progression for Standard-Risk Medulloblastoma: A Mathematical Tumor Control Model With Multiple Modes of Failure

Purpose: As pediatric medulloblastoma (MB) is a relatively rare disease, it is important to extract the maximum information from trials and cohort studies. Here, a framework was developed for modeling tumor control with multiple modes of failure and time-to-progression for standard-risk MB, using published pattern of failure data. Methods and Materials: Outcome data for standard-risk MB published after 1990 with pattern of relapse information were used to fit a tumor control dose-response model addressing failures in both the high-dose boost volume and the elective craniospinal volume. Estimates of 5-year event-free survival from 2 large randomized MB trials were used to model the time-to-progression distribution. Uncertainty in freedom from progression (FFP) was estimated by Monte Carlo sampling over the statistical uncertainty in input data. Results: The estimated 5-year FFP (95% confidence intervals [CI]) for craniospinal doses of 15, 18, 24, and 36 Gy while maintaining 54 Gy to the posterior fossa was 77% (95% CI, 70%-81%), 78% (95% CI, 73%-81%), 79% (95% CI, 76%-82%), and 80% (95% CI, 77%-84%) respectively. The uncertainty in FFP was considerably larger for craniospinal doses below 18 Gy, reflecting the lack of data in the lower dose range. Conclusions: Estimates of tumor control and time-to-progression for standard-risk MB provides a data-driven setting for hypothesis generation or power calculations for prospective trials, taking the uncertainties into account. The presented methods can also be applied to incorporate further risk-stratification for example based on molecular biomarkers, when the necessary data become available.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2015

Sensitivities and correlations of critical experiments due to uncertainties of system parameters and nuclear data - 14416

With increasing demand on accuracy of criticality calculations, correlations between benchmark experiments due to system parameter uncertainties become of interest in bias determination. The impact of different interpretations of system parameter uncertainties on the calculation of covariances and correlations of k{sub eff} is discussed in this article. Following the suggestion of the OECD/NEA EGUACSA Benchmark phase IV [1], 21 experiments from the ICSBEP international Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmarks [2] are used for this analysis (LEU-COMP-THERM series 07, exp. 01-04 and 39, exp. 01-17). The experiments share certain assembly and fuel features and were carried out in the same lab. Therefore, correlations in the calculation of k{sub eff} appear. Correlation coefficients between experiments due to nuclear data uncertainties are calculated with TSUNAMI [3] and show high values for most experiments. For the correlation analysis due to system parameter uncertainties mainly two scenarios are considered: In scenario A all uncertain parameters are varied mutually for all fuel rods, representing a systematic deviation of the actual experimental setup from the design value. This analysis is performed for all experiments listed above. In scenario E certain parameters like the outer cladding diameter are varied for each fuel rod individually, representing a random scattering of the varied parameter. Scenarios B, C and D represent intermediate scenarios between A and E, which are discussed shortly. Uncertainty and sensitivity calculations of k{sub eff} on the uncertain experimental parameters based on Monte Carlo sampling are presented and discussed. The calculations were performed with SUnCISTT (Sensitivities and Uncertainties in Criticality Inventory and Source Term Tool [4]) and SCALE 6.1.2 [3]. For the 21 EGUACSA proposed experiments the outer cladding diameter is the leading effect for the uncertainty of k{sub eff} for scenario A. In contrast, for scenario E the impact of the cladding diameter on k{sub eff} cancels out due to rod wise variations leaving the fuel diameter as the leading effect. The correlation analysis based on system parameter uncertainties indicates a significant dependence of the correlation coefficients on the interpretation of the uncertainties. It shows high values for scenario A, if the neutronic features are similar (EALF, H/U). For scenario E the overall correlations are significantly smaller and variations between experiments decrease. The impact of the determined correlations on bias calculations of application cases will be discussed by the authors in the accompanying paper 'Impact of correlated data in validation procedures'. (authors)

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Modelling the flux distribution function of the extragalactic gamma-ray background from dark matter annihilation

The one-point function (i.e., the isotropic flux distribution) is a complementary method to (anisotropic) two-point correlations in searches for a gamma-ray dark matter annihilation signature. Using analytical models of structure formation and dark matter halo properties, we compute the gamma-ray flux distribution due to annihilations in extragalactic dark matter halos, as it would be observed by the Fermi Large Area Telescope. Combining the central limit theorem and Monte Carlo sampling, we show that the flux distribution takes the form of a narrow Gaussian of 'diffuse' light, with an 'unresolved point source' power-law tail as a result of bright halos. We argue that this background due to dark matter constitutes an irreducible and significant background component for point-source annihilation searches with galaxy clusters and dwarf spheroidal galaxies, modifying the predicted signal-to-noise ratio. A study of astrophysical backgrounds to this signal reveals that the shape of the total gamma-ray flux distribution is very sensitive to the contribution of a dark matter component, allowing us to forecast promising one-point upper limits on the annihilation cross-section. We show that by using the flux distribution at only one energy bin, one can probe the canonical cross-section required for explaining the relic density, for dark matter of masses around tens of GeV.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

The incidence of low-metallicity Lyman-limit systems at z ∼ 3.5: Implications for the cold-flow hypothesis of baryonic accretion

Cold accretion is a primary growth mechanism of simulated galaxies, yet observational evidence of “cold flows” at redshifts where they should be most efficient (z = 2–4) is scarce. In simulations, cold streams manifest as Lyman-limit absorption systems (LLSs) with low heavy-element abundances similar to those of the diffuse intergalactic medium (IGM). Here we report on an abundance survey of 17 H i-selected LLSs at z = 3.2–4.4 which exhibits no metal absorption in Sloan Digital Sky Survey spectra. Using medium-resolution spectra obtained at Magellan, we derive ionization-corrected metallicities (or limits) with a Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling that accounts for the large uncertainty in N{sub H i} measurements typical of LLSs. The metal-poor LLS sample overlaps with the IGM in metallicity and can be described by a model where 71{sub −11}{sup +13}% are drawn from the IGM chemical abundance distribution. These represent roughly half of all LLSs at these redshifts, suggesting that 28%–40% of the general LLS population at z ∼ 3.7 could trace accreting gas. An ancillary sample of ten LLSs without any a priori metal-line selection is fit by a model having 48{sub −12}{sup +14}% of metallicities drawn from the IGM. We compare these results with regions of a moving-mesh simulation. The observed and simulated LLS metallicity distributions are in good agreement, after accounting for known uncertainties in both, with the fraction of simulated baryons in IGM-metallicity LLSs within a factor of two of the observed value. A statistically significant fraction of all LLSs have low metallicity and therefore represent candidates for accreting gas; large-volume simulations can establish what fraction of these candidates actually lie near galaxies and the observational prospects for detecting the presumed hosts in emission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accelerated statistical failure analysis of multifidelity TRISO fuel models

Statistical nuclear fuel failure analysis is critical for the design and development of advanced reactor technologies. Although Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) is a standard method of statistical failure analysis for fuels, the low failure probabilities of some advanced fuel forms and the correspondingly large number of required model evaluations limit its application to low-fidelity (e.g., 1-D) fuel models. In this paper, we present four other statistical methods for fuel failure analysis in Bison, considering tri-structural isotropic (TRISO)-coated particle fuel as a case study. The statistical methods considered are Latin hypercube sampling (LHS), adaptive importance sampling (AIS), subset simulation (SS), and the Weibull theory. Using these methods, we analyzed both 1-D and 2-D representations of TRISO models to compute failure probabilities and the distributions of fuel properties that result in failures. The results of these methods compare well across all TRISO models considered. Overall, SS and the Weibull theory were deemed the most efficient, and can be applied to both 1-D and 2-D TRISO models to compute failure probabilities. Moreover, since SS also characterizes the distribution of parameters that cause TRISO failures, and can consider failure modes not described by the Weibull criterion, it may be preferred over the other methods. Finally, a discussion on the efficacy of different statistical methods of assessing nuclear fuel safety is provided.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Particle-Based Conditional Sampling Scheme for the Simulation of Transport in Fractured Rock With Diffusion Into Stagnant Water and Rock Matrix

In situ experiments and field-scale characterization studies have pointed out that, in fractured crystalline media, groundwater flow is highly channelized. This implies that, at the scale of a single fracture, only part of the fracture surface area is in contact with flowing water, while the rest of in-plane water is essentially stagnant and can be accessed by solutes via molecular diffusion. Despite their importance for contaminant retention, to date, there are no numerical or analytical approaches that could be used to assess the implication of stagnant water zones on solute transport in realistic large-scale Discrete Fracture Network-based models. In this study, we present an efficient and flexible algorithm for the simulation of transport in fractured rock with diffusion into stagnant water and rock matrix. The algorithm is a generalization of a previously developed numerical framework for time domain particle tracking in sparsely fractured rock. The key of the generalization is that total time in fracture (τ f ) is first evaluated using a Monte Carlo sampling and then a second sampling is performed conditioned on τ f . The algorithm has been successfully validated against existing independent solutions and the implication of diffusion into stagnant water and secondary diffusion into the matrix has been assessed for a realistic modeling scenario. The results show that, due to diffusion into stagnant water, contaminants are more strongly retarded. This increased retention is more significant for sorbing species, as a larger number of sorption sites is accessible. A high sensitivity to the flowing channel/stagnant water zone geometry has also been observed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

SICK: THE SPECTROSCOPIC INFERENCE CRANK

There exists an inordinate amount of spectral data in both public and private astronomical archives that remain severely under-utilized. The lack of reliable open-source tools for analyzing large volumes of spectra contributes to this situation, which is poised to worsen as large surveys successively release orders of magnitude more spectra. In this article I introduce sick, the spectroscopic inference crank, a flexible and fast Bayesian tool for inferring astrophysical parameters from spectra. sick is agnostic to the wavelength coverage, resolving power, or general data format, allowing any user to easily construct a generative model for their data, regardless of its source. sick can be used to provide a nearest-neighbor estimate of model parameters, a numerically optimized point estimate, or full Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior probability distributions. This generality empowers any astronomer to capitalize on the plethora of published synthetic and observed spectra, and make precise inferences for a host of astrophysical (and nuisance) quantities. Model intensities can be reliably approximated from existing grids of synthetic or observed spectra using linear multi-dimensional interpolation, or a Cannon-based model. Additional phenomena that transform the data (e.g., redshift, rotational broadening, continuum, spectral resolution) are incorporated as free parameters and can be marginalized away. Outlier pixels (e.g., cosmic rays or poorly modeled regimes) can be treated with a Gaussian mixture model, and a noise model is included to account for systematically underestimated variance. Combining these phenomena into a scalar-justified, quantitative model permits precise inferences with credible uncertainties on noisy data. I describe the common model features, the implementation details, and the default behavior, which is balanced to be suitable for most astronomical applications. Using a forward model on low-resolution, high signal-to-noise ratio spectra of M67 stars reveals atomic diffusion processes on the order of 0.05 dex, previously only measurable with differential analysis techniques in high-resolution spectra. sick is easy to use, well-tested, and freely available online through GitHub under the MIT license.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2004

Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation

Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Non-NASA Center↗
DOE OSTI2017

Joint Bayesian Estimation of Quasar Continua and the Lyα Forest Flux Probability Distribution Function

We present a new Bayesian algorithm making use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling that allows us to simultaneously estimate the unknown continuum level of each quasar in an ensemble of high-resolution spectra, as well as their common probability distribution function (PDF) for the transmitted Lyα forest flux. This fully automated PDF regulated continuum fitting method models the unknown quasar continuum with a linear principal component analysis (PCA) basis, with the PCA coefficients treated as nuisance parameters. The method allows one to estimate parameters governing the thermal state of the intergalactic medium (IGM), such as the slope of the temperature–density relation γ−1, while marginalizing out continuum uncertainties in a fully Bayesian way. Using realistic mock quasar spectra created from a simplified semi-numerical model of the IGM, we show that this method recovers the underlying quasar continua to a precision of ≃7% and ≃10% at z = 3 and z = 5, respectively. Given the number of principal component spectra, this is comparable to the underlying accuracy of the PCA model itself. Most importantly, we show that we can achieve a nearly unbiased estimate of the slope γ−1 of the IGM temperature–density relation with a precision of ±8.6% at z = 3 and ±6.1% at z = 5, for an ensemble of ten mock high-resolution quasar spectra. Applying this method to real quasar spectra and comparing to a more realistic IGM model from hydrodynamical simulations would enable precise measurements of the thermal and cosmological parameters governing the IGM, albeit with somewhat larger uncertainties, given the increased flexibility of the model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Grid and basis adaptive polynomial chaos techniques for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

The demand for accurate and computationally affordable sensitivity and uncertainty techniques is constantly on the rise and has become especially pressing in the nuclear field with the shift to Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty methodologies in the licensing of nuclear installations. Besides traditional, already well developed methods – such as first order perturbation theory or Monte Carlo sampling – Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) has been given a growing emphasis in recent years due to its simple application and good performance. This paper presents new developments of the research done at TU Delft on such Polynomial Chaos (PC) techniques. Our work is focused on the Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection (NISP) approach and adaptive methods for building the PCE of responses of interest. Recent efforts resulted in a new adaptive sparse grid algorithm designed for estimating the PC coefficients. The algorithm is based on Gerstner's procedure for calculating multi-dimensional integrals but proves to be computationally significantly cheaper, while at the same it retains a similar accuracy as the original method. More importantly the issue of basis adaptivity has been investigated and two techniques have been implemented for constructing the sparse PCE of quantities of interest. Not using the traditional full PC basis set leads to further reduction in computational time since the high order grids necessary for accurately estimating the near zero expansion coefficients of polynomial basis vectors not needed in the PCE can be excluded from the calculation. Moreover the sparse PC representation of the response is easier to handle when used for sensitivity analysis or uncertainty propagation due to the smaller number of basis vectors. The developed grid and basis adaptive methods have been implemented in Matlab as the Fully Adaptive Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection (FANISP) algorithm and were tested on four analytical problems. These show consistent good performance both in terms of the accuracy of the resulting PC representation of quantities and the computational costs associated with constructing the sparse PCE. Basis adaptivity also seems to make the employment of PC techniques possible for problems with a higher number of input parameters (15–20), alleviating a well known limitation of the traditional approach. The prospect of larger scale applicability and the simplicity of implementation makes such adaptive PC algorithms particularly appealing for the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex systems and legacy codes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2013

THE PANCHROMATIC HUBBLE ANDROMEDA TREASURY. IV. A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH TO INFERRING THE HIGH-MASS STELLAR INITIAL MASS FUNCTION AND OTHER POWER-LAW FUNCTIONS

We present a probabilistic approach for inferring the parameters of the present-day power-law stellar mass function (MF) of a resolved young star cluster. This technique (1) fully exploits the information content of a given data set; (2) can account for observational uncertainties in a straightforward way; (3) assigns meaningful uncertainties to the inferred parameters; (4) avoids the pitfalls associated with binning data; and (5) can be applied to virtually any resolved young cluster, laying the groundwork for a systematic study of the high-mass stellar MF (M {approx}> 1 M {sub Sun }). Using simulated clusters and Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the probability distribution functions, we show that estimates of the MF slope, {alpha}, are unbiased and that the uncertainty, {Delta}{alpha}, depends primarily on the number of observed stars and on the range of stellar masses they span, assuming that the uncertainties on individual masses and the completeness are both well characterized. Using idealized mock data, we compute the theoretical precision, i.e., lower limits, on {alpha}, and provide an analytic approximation for {Delta}{alpha} as a function of the observed number of stars and mass range. Comparison with literature studies shows that {approx}3/4 of quoted uncertainties are smaller than the theoretical lower limit. By correcting these uncertainties to the theoretical lower limits, we find that the literature studies yield ({alpha}) = 2.46, with a 1{sigma} dispersion of 0.35 dex. We verify that it is impossible for a power-law MF to obtain meaningful constraints on the upper mass limit of the initial mass function, beyond the lower bound of the most massive star actually observed. We show that avoiding substantial biases in the MF slope requires (1) including the MF as a prior when deriving individual stellar mass estimates, (2) modeling the uncertainties in the individual stellar masses, and (3) fully characterizing and then explicitly modeling the completeness for stars of a given mass. The precision on MF slope recovery in this paper are lower limits, as we do not explicitly consider all possible sources of uncertainty, including dynamical effects (e.g., mass segregation), unresolved binaries, and non-coeval populations. We briefly discuss how each of these effects can be incorporated into extensions of the present framework. Finally, we emphasize that the technique and lessons learned are applicable to more general problems involving power-law fitting.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Sensitivity Analysis of Passive Heat Removal Capability of FHR Based on Efficient Surrogate Model and GenFlow

Code Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty Evaluation Methodology (CSAU) is used for quantifying reactor safety margins and works as an alternative method for licensing nuclear power plant. In the framework of CSAU, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis (SA and UA) should be performed. However, for large-scale complicated thermal hydraulics analysis simulated by code (e.g. RELAP5, CFD and subchannel analysis, the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is really time-consuming. Furthermore, sometimes it is not feasible to perform SA and UA. Specifically, the computation time for Monte Carlo sampling or advanced LHS sampling can be neglected, but the computation time for thermal hydraulics code makes up main part of time during SA and UA process. In order to accelerate the speed of SA and UA, thermal hydraulics code can be improved based on advanced mathematic algorithm or using parallel method. However, the development for new mathematic method needs long time and strict verification and validation process is needed for a new code, which usually takes a couple of years or even longer time to have an approved code that can be used in nuclear industry. An alternative way to improve the speed of SA and UA is using surrogate model. The surrogate model is derived from the input as well as output data of the original code, assuming the code as a black box. The most common method is using response surface method (RSM) as a surrogate for the code, the input parameters are then sampled from their assumed distribution and the corresponding value of the response surface function is calculated. However, a couple of input parameters need hundreds or even thousands of original code calculations. The large number of runs is an obvious disadvantage of this method. Besides, the second disadvantage is an appropriate response surface function must be selected (e.g. quadratic, cubic, quartic, with or without cross product terms, or using a non-polynomial form) to avoid the overfit and underfit problem. This process is time consuming and expensive. Polynomial chaos expansion method is a reasonably fast and attractive alternative, stochastic model. The chaos expansion provides an efficient high-order method of including non-linear effects in stochastic analysis. Usually, the information about the model parameters and their probability distribution is limited and the dependence between them is not known. However, if arbitrary polynomial chaos is used, instead of assuming probability distribution for input parameters which may introduces additional subjectivity into the analysis, the available information can directly and most purely be used in stochastic analysis based on arbitrary data distribution. Thus, it is not necessary to know the exact probability density functions to perform SA and UA based on arbitrary polynomial chaos (aPC). The aPC has been applied for uncertainty quantification in many fields (e.g. in solid mechanics, fluid flows, thermal sciences), and become widely used in nuclear industry recently. Mk1 PB-FHR is a small modular fluoride-salt-cooled, high-temperature reactors (FHRs) that is a concept design by University of California, Berkeley (UCB). It has inherently safe features like natural-circulation-driven systems (e.g. direct reactor auxiliary cooling system (DRACS)) to passively remove decay heat from the reactor core during design basis and beyond design. It is necessary to perform SA and UA, since the licensing process of this new kind of reactor is under way and there are many design parameters that have not been fixed. Current nuclear commercial codes, such as RELAP5, have mainly been developed for light water reactors, which require the use of comprehensive two-phase flow models. This capability is not required to simulate single-phase flow phenomena in FHRs, whose baseline coolant, flibe, remains liquid up to 1430 deg. C at atmospheric pressure. The FHR advanced natural circulation analysis (FANCY) code has been developed specifically for FHR technology modeling and validation work has been performed by using CIET data in UCB. The code has been renamed General Flow (GenFlow) because it has been further developed to have the capability to model complicated pipework system based on object-oriented concept for user friendly purpose. Besides, it can be used to simulate both the force circulation as well as natural circulation. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Sensitivity analysis of simulated SOA loadings using a variance-based statistical approach: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF SOA

We investigate the sensitivity of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) loadings simulated by a regional chemical transport model to 7 selected tunable model parameters: 4 involving emissions of anthropogenic and biogenic volatile organic compounds, anthropogenic semi-volatile and intermediate volatility organics (SIVOCs), and NOx, 2 involving dry deposition of SOA precursor gases, and one involving particle-phase transformation of SOA to low volatility. We adopt a quasi-Monte Carlo sampling approach to effectively sample the high-dimensional parameter space, and perform a 250 member ensemble of simulations using a regional model, accounting for some of the latest advances in SOA treatments based on our recent work. We then conduct a variance-based sensitivity analysis using the generalized linear model method to study the responses of simulated SOA loadings to the tunable parameters. Analysis of SOA variance from all 250 simulations shows that the volatility transformation parameter, which controls whether particle-phase transformation of SOA from semi-volatile SOA to non-volatile is on or off, is the dominant contributor to variance of simulated surface-level daytime SOA (65% domain average contribution). We also split the simulations into 2 subsets of 125 each, depending on whether the volatility transformation is turned on/off. For each subset, the SOA variances are dominated by the parameters involving biogenic VOC and anthropogenic SIVOC emissions. Furthermore, biogenic VOC emissions have a larger contribution to SOA variance when the SOA transformation to non-volatile is on, while anthropogenic SIVOC emissions have a larger contribution when the transformation is off. NOx contributes less than 4.3% to SOA variance, and this low contribution is mainly attributed to dominance of intermediate to high NOx conditions throughout the simulated domain. The two parameters related to dry deposition of SOA precursor gases also have very low contributions to SOA variance. This study highlights the large sensitivity of SOA loadings to the particle-phase transformation of SOA volatility, which is neglected in most previous models.

Shrivastava, Manish↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification of bank vegetation impacts on the flood flow field in the American River, California, using large‐eddy simulations

Bank vegetation plays a key role in both hydrodynamics and morphodynamics of natural rivers; however, these effects are often unaccounted for in the computational flow dynamics of natural waterways. Recent studies using the large‐eddy simulation (LES), however, have attempted to gain insights into the impacts of bank vegetation on the mean flow field of the natural rivers using a vegetation model, which applies a sink term to the momentum equations of motion. This approach accounts for the effects of the vegetation and provides a practical approach to account for the complex patches of bank vegetation in large‐scale rivers. To implement the vegetation model, a drag coefficient reflecting the overall resistance of vegetal structures to the flow is needed, but due to the lack of calibrated data and range of size, density and type of vegetation, this parameter can be a significant source of uncertainty in the model results. Here, in this study, we use uncertainty quantification (UQ) to investigate the hydrodynamics and bed shear results when a bank vegetation is incorporated in an LES model. To this end, we used the polynomial chaos expansion and Monte Carlo sampling techniques to determine the uncertainties associated with the drag coefficient in the vegetation model and from uncertainties in the bed roughness and inflow discharge. The UQ analysis provided spatially varying confidence levels for the spanwise and vertical distribution of velocity magnitude and for the bed shear stress distributions. In addition, Sobol indices were computed to indicate the relative influence that each parameter had on the overall uncertainty. In general, it was found that uncertainty in flow discharge was the dominant source of uncertainty; however, the drag coefficient in the vegetation model and the bed roughness parameter also made significant contribution to the uncertainty near the banks and bed, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Uncertainty Quantification for the Reliability of the Analytical Analysis for the Simplified Model of CO2 Geological Sequestration

A hydro-mechanical model with analytical solutions including pressure evolution and geomechanical deformation for geological CO2 injection and sequestration were introduced in our previous work. However, the reliability and accuracy of the hydro-mechanical model and the companion analytical solution are uncertain because of the assumptions and simplifications in the analytical model, though it was validated by a few example cases. This study introduce the method to efficiently measure the accuracy of the analytical model, and specify the acceptable input parameters range that can guarantee the accuracy and reliability of the analytical solution. A coupled hydro-geomechanical subsurface transport simulator STOMP was adopted as a reference to justify the reliability of the hydro-mechanical model and the analytical solution. A quasi-Monte Carlo sampling method was applied to efficiently sample the input parameter space.

analytical analysis↗