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The massively parallel processor is used to perform Monte Carlo simulations for the two dimensional XY model on lattices of sizes up to 128 x 128. A parallel random number generator was constructed, finite size effects were studied, and run times were compared with those on a CRAY X-MP supercomputer.
The Monte Carlo method is used to perform averages over sink configurations in the present study of diffusion-controlled reactions occurring between solute particles and immobile spherical sinks. In order to determine the average steady state solute concentration profile in a locally perturbed solution for sink volume fractions phi of less than 0.3, the diffusion equation in the monopolar plus dipolar approximation of diffusive couplings between the sinks is solved numerically. The Monte Carlo method is shown to be the most accurate and efficient in the phi = 0.001-0.1 region, where a system of only 25 sinks suffices and the monopolar approximation alone is sufficiently accurate.
A computer model based on Monte Carlo techniques was developed to simulate the destruction of lunar rocks by 'catastrophic rupture' due to meteoroid impact. Energies necessary to accomplish catastrophic rupture were derived from laboratory experiments. A crater-production rate derived from lunar rocks was utilized to calculate absolute time scales. Calculated median survival times for crystalline lunar rocks are 1.9, 4.6, 10.3, and 22 m.y. for rock masses of 10, 100, 1000, and 10,000 g, respectively. Corresponding times of 6, 14.5, 32, and 68 million years are required before the probability of destruction reaches 0.99. These results are consistent with absolute exposure ages measured on returned rocks. Some results also substantiate previous conclusions that the catastrophic-rupture process is significantly more effective in obliterating lunar rocks than mass wasting by single-particle abrasion. The view is also corroborated that most rocks presently on the lunar surface either are exhumed from the regolith or are fragments of much larger boulders rather than primary ejecta excavated from pristine bedrock.
A program for analyzing the flowfield parameters in the neighborhood of the Space Shuttle Orbiter has been developed. The program uses the direct simulation Monte Carlo method, which is a completely probabilistic Monte Carlo technique capable of analyzing 3-dimensional steady or unsteady flow with prescribed internal and external boundary conditions. The freestream flux densities incident on the external flowfield boundaries are calculated from the drifting Maxwellian gas properties of the freestream. The flux entering the flowfield from the internal boundary is calculated from the outgassing flux density distribution over the Shuttle external surface and the prescribed discrete source fluxes. This technique produces a numerical flowfield solution which is the probabilistic equivalent of a complete solution of the time-dependent, 3-dimensional Boltzmann equation. Flowfield results are presented for the following configurations: (1) Shuttle angles of attack of 0 and 90 deg, (2) freestream density 10 to the 9th - 10 to the 11th per cu cm, (3) Shuttle outgassing flux density, and (4) operation of the aft downfiring vernier Reaction Control System (RCS) engine. Results are presented for column density distribution of outgassed and engine species and for the flux density of outgassed and engine species incident on the Shuttle bay and the windshield.
Monte Carlo methods are frequently applied to the evaluation of uncertainties in models with multiple inputs that themselves have associated imprecisions. In the case of photochemical models used to evaluate changes in O3 or OH, inputs analyzed include rate coefficients measured in the laboratory, and chemical and physical constituents measured in the atmosphere. The Monte Carlo method was used with the 1-dimensional GSFC tropospheric photochemical model to examine uncertainty propagation to calculation of NO(x) and the major oxidants (O3, OH) in the upper troposphere. In all cases chemical kinetics inputs are varied and the NO(x) perturbation of a subsonic fleet is simulated. A series of model runs is used to explore sensitivities of model-computed parameters to other parameters: heterogeneous processes, the uncertainty in upper tropospheric H2O vapor measurements, aircraft emissions at different latitudes.
This work proposes a fast Monte Carlo method to solve differential equations utilized in model-based prognostics. The methodology is derived from the theory of stochastic calculus, and the goal of such a method is to speed up the estimation of the probability density functions describing the independent variable evolution over time. In the prognostic scenarios presented in this paper, the stochastic differential equations describe variables directly or indirectly related to the degradation of a monitored system. The method allows the estimation of the probability density functions by solving the deterministic equation and approximating the stochastic integrals using samples of the model noise. By so doing, the prognostic problem is solved without the Monte Carlo simulation based on Euler's forward method, which is typically the most time consuming task of the prediction stage. Three different prognostic scenarios are presented as proof of concept: (i) life prediction of electrolytic capacitors, (ii) remaining time to discharge of Lithium-ion batteries, and (iii) prognostic of cracked structures under fatigue loading. The paper shows how the method produces probability density functions that are statistically indistinguishable from the distributions estimated with Euler's forward Monte Carlo simulation. However, the proposed solution is orders of magnitude faster when computing the time-to-failure distribution of the monitored system. The approach may enable complex real-time prognostics and health management solutions with limited computing power.
This work proposes a fast Monte Carlo method to solve differential equations utilized in model-based prognostics. The methodology is derived from the theory of stochastic calculus, and the goal of such a method is to speed up the estimation of the probability density functions describing the independent variable evolution over time. In the prognostic scenarios presented in this paper, the stochastic differential equations describe variables directly or indirectly related to the degradation of a monitored system. The method allows the estimation of the probability density functions by solving the deterministic equation and approximating the stochastic integrals using samples of the model noise. By so doing, the prognostic problem is solved without the Monte Carlo simulation based on Euler's forward method, which is typically the most time consuming task of the prediction stage. Three different prognostic scenarios are presented as proof of concept: (i) life prediction of electrolytic capacitors, (ii) remaining time to discharge of Lithium-ion batteries, and (iii) prognostic of cracked structures under fatigue loading. The paper shows how the method produces probability density functions that are statistically indistinguishable from the distributions estimated with Euler's forward Monte Carlo simulation. However, the proposed solution is orders of magnitude faster when computing the time-to-failure distribution of the monitored system. The approach may enable complex real-time prognostics and health management solutions with limited computing power.
The Liquid Propellant Fragment Overpressure Acceleration Model (L-FOAM) is a tool developed by Bangham Engineering Incorporated (BEi) that produces a representative debris cloud from an exploding liquid-propellant launch vehicle. Here it is applied to the Core Stage (CS) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Space Launch System (SLS launch vehicle). A combination of Probability Density Functions (PDF) based on empirical data from rocket accidents and applicable tests, as well as SLS specific geometry are combined in a MATLAB script to create unique fragment catalogues each time L-FOAM is run-tailored for a Monte Carlo approach for risk analysis. By accelerating the debris catalogue with the BEi blast model for liquid hydrogen / liquid oxygen explosions, the result is a fully integrated code that models the destruction of the CS at a given point in its trajectory and generates hundreds of individual fragment catalogues with initial imparted velocities. The BEi blast model provides the blast size (radius) and strength (overpressure) as probabilities based on empirical data and anchored with analytical work. The coupling of the L-FOAM catalogue with the BEi blast model is validated with a simulation of the Project PYRO S-IV destruct test. When running a Monte Carlo simulation, L-FOAM can accelerate all catalogues with the same blast (mean blast, 2 σ blast, etc.), or vary the blast size and strength based on their respective probabilities. L-FOAM then propagates these fragments until impact with the earth. Results from L-FOAM include a description of each fragment (dimensions, weight, ballistic coefficient, type and initial location on the rocket), imparted velocity from the blast, and impact data depending on user desired application. LFOAM application is for both near-field (fragment impact to escaping crew capsule) and far-field (fragment ground impact footprint) safety considerations. The user is thus able to use statistics from a Monte Carlo set of L-FOAM catalogues to quantify risk for a multitude of potential CS destruct scenarios. Examples include the effect of warning time on the survivability of an escaping crew capsule or the maximum fragment velocities generated by the ignition of leaking propellants in internal cavities.
Intense and complex instrumental backgrounds, against which the much smaller signals from celestial sources have to be discerned, are a notorious problem for low and intermediate energy gamma-ray astronomy (approximately 50 keV - 10 MeV). Therefore a detailed qualitative and quantitative understanding of instrumental line and continuum backgrounds is crucial for most stages of gamma-ray astronomy missions, ranging from the design and development of new instrumentation through performance prediction to data reduction. We have developed MGGPOD, a user-friendly suite of Monte Carlo codes built around the widely used GEANT (Version 3.21) package, to simulate ab initio the physical processes relevant for the production of instrumental backgrounds. These include the build-up and delayed decay of radioactive isotopes as well as the prompt de-excitation of excited nuclei, both of which give rise to a plethora of instrumental gamma-ray background lines in addition t o continuum backgrounds. The MGGPOD package and documentation are publicly available for download. We demonstrate the capabilities of the MGGPOD suite by modeling high resolution gamma-ray spectra recorded by the Transient Gamma-Ray Spectrometer (TGRS) on board Wind during 1995. The TGRS is a Ge spectrometer operating in the 40 keV to 8 MeV range. Due to its fine energy resolution, these spectra reveal the complex instrumental background in formidable detail, particularly the many prompt and delayed gamma-ray lines. We evaluate the successes and failures of the MGGPOD package in reproducing TGRS data, and provide identifications for the numerous instrumental lines.
Three-dimensional optical random access memories (3D ORAMs) are a new generation of high-density data storage devices. Binary information is stored and retrieved via a light induced reversible transformation of an ensemble of bistable photochromic molecules embedded in a polymer matrix. This paper describes the application of 3D ORAM materials to radiation dosimetry. It is shown both theoretically and experimentally, that ionizing radiation in the form of heavy charged particles is capable of changing the information originally stored on the ORAM material. The magnitude and spatial distribution of these changes are used as a measure of the absorbed dose, particle type and energy. The effects of exposure on 3D ORAM materials have been investigated for a variety of particle types and energies, including protons, alpha particles and 12C ions. The exposed materials are observed to fluoresce when exposed to laser light. The intensity and the depth of the fluorescence is dependent on the type and energy of the particle to which the materials were exposed. It is shown that these effects can be modeled using Monte Carlo calculations. The model provides a better understanding of the properties of these materials. which should prove useful for developing systems for charged particle and neutron dosimetry/detector applications. c2001 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.
We use Monte Carlo analysis to estimate the uncertainty in predictions of total O3 trends between 1979 and 1995 made by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) two-dimensional (2D) model of stratospheric photochemistry and dynamics. The uncertainty is caused by gas-phase chemical reaction rates, photolysis coefficients, and heterogeneous reaction parameters which are model inputs. The uncertainty represents a lower bound to the total model uncertainty assuming the input parameter uncertainties are characterized correctly. Each of the Monte Carlo runs was initialized in 1970 and integrated for 26 model years through the end of 1995. This was repeated 419 times using input parameter sets generated by Latin Hypercube Sampling. The standard deviation (a) of the Monte Carlo ensemble of total 03 trend predictions is used to quantify the model uncertainty. The 34% difference between the model trend in globally and annually averaged total O3 using nominal inputs and atmospheric trends calculated from Nimbus 7 and Meteor 3 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) version 7 data is less than the 46% calculated 1 (sigma), model uncertainty, so there is no significant difference between the modeled and observed trends. In the northern hemisphere midlatitude spring the modeled and observed total 03 trends differ by more than 1(sigma) but less than 2(sigma), which we refer to as marginal significance. We perform a multiple linear regression analysis of the runs which suggests that only a few of the model reactions contribute significantly to the variance in the model predictions. The lack of significance in these comparisons suggests that they are of questionable use as guides for continuing model development. Large model/measurement differences which are many multiples of the input parameter uncertainty are seen in the meridional gradients of the trend and the peak-to-peak variations in the trends over an annual cycle. These discrepancies unambiguously indicate model formulation problems and provide a measure of model performance which can be used in attempts to improve such models.
Last year we submitted and had accepted a paper entitled "The Far-Infrared Emission Line and Continuum Spectrum of the Seyfert Galaxy NGC 1068," by Spinoglio, L., Malkan, M., Smith. HA, Gonzalez-Alfonso, E., and Fischer, J. This analysis was based on the SWAS Monte Carlo code modeling of the OH lines in galaxies observed by ISO. Since that meeting last spring considerable effort has been put into improving the Monte Carlo code. A group of European astronomers, including Prof. Eduardo Gonzalez-Alfonso, had been performing Monte Carlo modeling of other molecules seen in ISO galaxies. We used portions of this grant to bring Prof. Gonzalez-Alfonso to Cambridge for an intensive working visit. A second major paper on the ISO IR spectroscopy of galaxies, "The Far Infrared Spectrum of Arp 220," Gonzalez-Alfonso, E., Smith. H., Fischer, J., and Cernicharo, J., is in press. Spitzer science development was the major component of this past year;s research. This program supported the development of five Early Release Objects for Spitzer observations on which Dr. Smith was Principal Investigator or Co-Investigator, and another five proposals for GO time. The early release program is designed to rapidly present to the public and the scientific community some exciting results from Spitzer in the first months of its operation. The Spitzer instrument and science teams submitted proposals for ERO objects, and a competitive selection process narrowed these down to a small group with exciting science and realistic observational parameters. This grant supported Dr. Smith's participation in the ERO process, including developing science goals, identifying key objects for observation, and developing the detailed AOR (observing formulae) to be use by the instruments for mapping, integrating, etc.). During this year Dr. Smith worked on writing up and publishing these early results. The attached bibliography includes six of Dr. Smith's articles. During this past year Dr. Smith also led or helped to develop proposals for ten Spitzer GO Programs, and three others. Appendix B lists the programs involved.
Reflected fluxes are calculated for stratocumulus cloud fields as a function of skycover, cloud aspect ratio, and cloud shape. Cloud liquid water volume is held invariant as cloud shape is varied so that the results can be utilized more effectively by general circulation models and climate models. On the basis of required accuracy in the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment program, an order of magnitude value of 10 W/sq m is used to estimate significant differences between plane parallel and broken cloudiness. This limit is exceeded for cloud covers between 10% and 90%, indicating that plane paralel calculations are not satisfactory at most values of cloud cover. The choice of cloud shape also leads to large differences in reflected fluxes. These differences are traced to the anisotropic intensity pattern out the cloud sides, to the size and shape of the holes between clouds, and to variations in cloud area as viewed from the solar direction. An empirical relationship for effective cloud cover is given at solar zenith angle of theta = 60 deg. This relationship allows for the relatively accurate (delta F = 10 - 15 W/sq m.) computation of broken cloud field reflected fluxes from plane parallel calculations.
The Center for Radiation Engineering and Science for Space Exploration (CRESSE) at Prairie View A&M University, Prairie View, Texas, USA, is establishing an integrated, multi-disciplinary research program on the scientific and engineering challenges faced by NASA and the international space community caused by space radiation. CRESSE focuses on space radiation research directly applicable to astronaut health and safety during future long term, deep space missions, including Martian, lunar, and other planetary body missions beyond low earth orbit. The research approach will consist of experimental and theoretical radiation modeling studies utilizing particle accelerator facilities including: 1. NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) at Brookhaven National Laboratory; 2. Proton Synchrotron at Loma Linda University Medical Center; and 3. Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Specifically, CRESSE investigators are designing, developing, and building experimental test beds that simulate the lunar and Martian radiation environments for experiments focused on risk assessment for astronauts and instrumentation. The testbeds have been designated the Bioastronautics Experimental Research Testbeds for Environmental Radiation Nostrum Investigations and Education (BERT and ERNIE). The designs of BERT and ERNIE will allow for a high degree of flexibility and adaptability to modify experimental configurations to simulate planetary surface environments, planetary habitats, and spacecraft interiors. In the nominal configuration, BERT and ERIE will consist of a set of experimental zones that will simulate the planetary atmosphere (Solid CO2 in the case of the Martian surface.), the planetary surface, and sub-surface regions. These experimental zones can be used for dosimetry, shielding, biological, and electronic effects radiation studies in support of space exploration missions. BERT and ERNIE are designed to be compatible with the experimental areas associated with the above facilities. CRESSE has broad expertise in space radiation in the areas of space radiation environment modeling, Monte-Carlo radiation transport modeling, space radiation instrumentation and dosimetry, radiation effects on electronics, and multi-functional composite shielding materials. The BERT and ERNIE testbeds will be utilized in individual and collaborative research incorporating this expertise. The research goal is to maximize the technical readiness level (TRL) of radiation instrumentation for human and robotic missions, optimizing the return value of CRESSE for NASA exploration and international co-operative missions. Outcomes and knowledge from research utilizing BERT and ERNIE will be applied to a variety of scientific and engineering disciplines vital for safe and reliable execution of future space exploration missions, which can be negatively impacted by the space radiation environment. The testbeds will be central to a variety of university educational activities and educational goals of NASA. Specifically, BERT and ERNIE will enhance educational opportunities in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) disciplines for engineering and science students at PVAMU, a historically black college/university. Preliminary data on prototype testbed configurations, including simulated lunar regolith (JSC-1A stimulant based on Apollo 11 samples), regolith/polyethylene composites, and dry ice, will be presented to demonstrate the usefulness of BERT and ERNIE in radiation beam line experiments.
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The constellation of Earth-observing satellites continuously collects measurements of scattered radiance, which must be transformed into geophysical parameters in order to answer fundamental scientific questions about the Earth. Retrieval of these parameters requires highly flexible, accurate, and fast forward and inverse radiative transfer models. Existing forward models used by the remote sensing community are typically accurate and fast, but sacrifice flexibility by assuming the atmosphere or ocean is composed of plane-parallel layers. Monte Carlo forward models can handle more complex scenarios such as 3D spatial heterogeneity, but are relatively slower. We propose looking to the computer graphics community for inspiration to improve the statistical efficiency of Monte Carlo forward models and explore new approaches to inverse models for remote sensing. In Part 2 of this work, we demonstrate that Monte Carlo forward models in computer graphics are capable of sufficient accuracy for remote sensing by extending Mitsuba 3, a forward and inverse modeling framework recently developed in the computer graphics community, to simulate simple atmosphere-ocean systems and show that our framework is capable of achieving error on par with codes currently used by the remote sensing community on benchmark results.
The mathematical derivations of various methods employed in the Monte Carlo particle-trajectory model (MCPTM) are presented, and the application of the MCPTM to the calculation of the photochemical heating of the inner coma through the partial thermalization of cometary hydrogen atoms produced by the photodissociation of water is discussed. This model is then used to explain the observed morphology of the spatially extended Ly-alpha comas of comets. The rocket and Skylab images of the Ly-alpha coma of Comet Kohoutek are examined.
Atomic oxygen is one of the predominant constituents of Earth's upper atmosphere. It is created by the photodissociation of molecular oxygen (O2) into single O atoms by ultraviolet radiation. It is chemically very reactive because a single O atom readily combines with another O atom or with other atoms or molecules that can form a stable oxide. The effects of atomic oxygen on the external surfaces of spacecraft in low Earth orbit can have dire consequences for spacecraft life, and this is a well-known and much studied problem. Much less information is known about the effects of atomic oxygen on the internal surfaces of spacecraft. This degradation can occur when openings in components of the spacecraft exterior exist that allow the entry of atomic oxygen into regions that may not have direct atomic oxygen attack but rather scattered attack. Openings can exist because of spacecraft venting, microwave cavities, and apertures for Earth viewing, Sun sensors, or star trackers. The effects of atomic oxygen erosion of polymers interior to an aperture on a spacecraft were simulated at the NASA Glenn Research Center by using Monte Carlo computational techniques. A two-dimensional model was used to provide quantitative indications of the attenuation of atomic oxygen flux as a function of the distance into a parallel-walled cavity. The model allows the atomic oxygen arrival direction, the Maxwell Boltzman temperature, and the ram energy to be varied along with the interaction parameters of the degree of recombination upon impact with polymer or nonreactive surfaces, the initial reaction probability, the reaction probability dependence upon energy and angle of attack, degree of specularity of scattering of reactive and nonreactive surfaces, and the degree of thermal accommodation upon impact with reactive and non-reactive surfaces to be varied to allow the model to produce atomic oxygen erosion geometries that replicate actual experimental results from space. The degree of erosion of various interior locations was compared with the erosion that would occur external to the spacecraft. Results of one cavity model indicate that, at depths into a two-dimensional cavity that are equal to 10 cavity widths, the erosion on the walls of the cavity is less than that on the top surface by over 2 orders of magnitude. Wall erosion near the surface of a cavity depends on which wall is receiving direct atomic oxygen attack. However, deep in the cavity little difference is present. Testing of various cavity models such as these gives spacecraft designers an indication of the level of threat to sensitive interior surfaces for different geometries. Even though the Monte Carlo model is two-dimensional, it can be used to provide qualitative information about spacecraft openings that are three-dimensional by offering reasonable insight as to the nature of the attenuation of damage that occurs within a spacecraft in low Earth orbit. As shown, there is more erosion on the side seeing direct atomic oxygen attack until a depth of approximately 5 times the width of the opening, where the erosion is the same on both sides.