Phase-selection algorithms to minimize cost and imbalance in U.S. synthetic distribution systems
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Postigo, Fernando↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Model selection”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Surrogate model evaluation and building energy benchmarking for commercial buildings
Building energy consumption benchmarking involves challenges associated with various energy patterns for different building types; heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system types; and climates. Given significant variation in energy use patterns, accurate prediction of long-term energy use using surrogate models remains challenging. Multiple linear regression (MLR) is commonly used for building energy benchmarking because of its simple structure; however, it lacks accuracy compared to other black-box models. Although many studies have compared surrogate models and offer guidance on model selection based on metrics, they do not provide detailed analysis on improving the surrogate model accuracy. In this paper, we implement a surrogate model using polynomial ridge regression (i.e., MLR with interaction terms combined with ridge regularization) for small office and retail strip mall buildings across six HVAC system types and all climate zones, for electricity and natural gas in baseline and proposed scenarios. A simulation workflow is developed using OpenStudio TM /EnergyPlus TM to generate simulation data using measures over a wide range of efficiency inputs. Enhancements based on statistical insights are used for improving the model accuracy using filters, input transformations, and change points. Surrogate models achieved average coefficient of variation of the root mean squared error (CVRMSE) values of 2.17, 1.06, 2.05, and 3.26 for proposed electricity, proposed natural gas, baseline electricity, and baseline natural gas, respectively, with enhancements reducing CVRMSE by an average of 14.9% across all combinations. We provide model interpretation via Shapley additive explanations to determine which input variables most influence energy consumption and provide supportive arguments for enhancements.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Global centroid moment tensor solutions in a heterogeneous earth: the CMT3D catalogue
SUMMARY For over 40 yr, the global centroid-moment tensor (GCMT) project has determined location and source parameters for globally recorded earthquakes larger than magnitude 5.0. The GCMT database remains a trusted staple for the geophysical community. Its point-source moment-tensor solutions are the result of inversions that model long-period observed seismic waveforms via normal-mode summation for a 1-D reference earth model, augmented by path corrections to capture 3-D variations in surface wave phase speeds, and to account for crustal structure. While this methodology remains essentially unchanged for the ongoing GCMT catalogue, source inversions based on waveform modelling in low-resolution 3-D earth models have revealed small but persistent biases in the standard modelling approach. Keeping pace with the increased capacity and demands of global tomography requires a revised catalogue of centroid-moment tensors (CMT), automatically and reproducibly computed using Green's functions from a state-of-the-art 3-D earth model. In this paper, we modify the current procedure for the full-waveform inversion of seismic traces for the six moment-tensor parameters, centroid latitude, longitude, depth and centroid time of global earthquakes. We take the GCMT solutions as a point of departure but update them to account for the effects of a heterogeneous earth, using the global 3-D wave speed model GLAD-M25. We generate synthetic seismograms from Green's functions computed by the spectral-element method in the 3-D model, select observed seismic data and remove their instrument response, process synthetic and observed data, select segments of observed and synthetic data based on similarity, and invert for new model parameters of the earthquake’s centroid location, time and moment tensor. The events in our new, preliminary database containing 9382 global event solutions, called CMT3D for ‘3-D centroid-moment tensors’, are on average 4 km shallower, about 1 s earlier, about 5 per cent larger in scalar moment, and more double-couple in nature than in the GCMT catalogue. We discuss in detail the geographical and statistical distributions of the updated solutions, and place them in the context of earlier work. We plan to disseminate our CMT3D solutions via the online ShakeMovie platform.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Constitutive modeling for isotropic materials (HOST)
This report presents the results of the second year of work on a problem which is part of the NASA HOST Program. Its goals are: (1) to develop and validate unified constitutive models for isotropic materials, and (2) to demonstrate their usefulness for structural analyses of hot section components of gas turbine engines. The unified models selected for development and evaluation are that of Bodner-Partom and Walker. For model evaluation purposes, a large constitutive data base is generated for a B1900 + Hf alloy by performing uniaxial tensile, creep, cyclic, stress relation, and thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) tests as well as biaxial (tension/torsion) tests under proportional and nonproportional loading over a wide range of strain rates and temperatures. Systematic approaches for evaluating material constants from a small subset of the data base are developed. Correlations of the uniaxial and biaxial tests data with the theories of Bodner-Partom and Walker are performed to establish the accuracy, range of applicability, and integability of the models. Both models are implemented in the MARC finite element computer code and used for TMF analyses. Benchmark notch round experiments are conducted and the results compared with finite-element analyses using the MARC code and the Walker model.
Lindholm, U. S.↗
A new database website for nuclear level densities
We introduce a new open-access, web-based database (http://nld.ascsn.net), Current Archive of Nuclear Density of Levels (CANDL), that hosts experimental nuclear level density (NLD) datasets from a variety of techniques and energy ranges. Built using the Dash framework in Python, the database is designed to be interactive and user-friendly, allowing researchers to search, visualize, fit, and export NLD data with minimal effort. This resource includes data extracted from evaporation spectra, Oslo method variants, and other experimental techniques that cover excitation energies beyond the neutron resonance region. The database supports on-the-fly fitting with two widely-used phenomenological models—the Constant Temperature (CT) model and the Back-Shifted Fermi Gas (BSFG) model—selected for their simplicity and computational efficiency. Future versions aim to include additional datasets and model types, as well as easy-to-use interfaces to data science techniques. Here, this platform offers a vital tool for the nuclear physics, astrophysics, medicine, and reactor design communities.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Improvement of two-phase closure models in CTF using Bayesian inference
Under the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) program, extensive capabilities have been developed in CTF to analyze light-water reactors (LWRs) for normal operating conditions, departure from nucleate boiling (DNB), and system transients. However, further improvements are required in the modeling and simulation of boiling water reactors (BWRs), which is a focus of the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. In this work, CTF validation results were used to optimize selected modeling coefficients by calibrating to experimental data using a Bayesian inference approach. Here, calibration studies were conducted to improve (vapor) void fraction prediction without worsening the two-phase pressure drop prediction, as well as to improve the two-phase pressure drop prediction. Calibration was performed for interfacial drag and wall shear models. Surrogates were developed to alleviate the computational expense required for sampling the parameter space using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). An assessment performed with calibrated models demonstrated an improvement of CTF in its prediction of key parameters such as void fraction and two-phase pressure drop.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Recent progress in microscale modeling of RF sheaths
The microscale properties of RF sheaths in the ion cyclotron range of frequencies (ICRF) are investigated by means of analytical theory, nonlinear fluid and particle-in-cell (PIC) code modeling. Previous work that parametrized RF sheath properties, specifically the RF sheath impedance and the rectified (DC) sheath potential, is generalized to include the effect of net DC current flow through the sheath. Analytical results are presented in the low frequency limit where the displacement current is negligible, and tested against results from a fluid numerical model. Here, it is shown that when the sheath draws DC electron current, the voltage rectification is reduced from the zero current case, and the electron admittance is increased. In separate but related work on the microscale model, selected cases have been simulated with PIC codes to validate, further illuminate and extend fluid model results and their parametrizations. Quantitative agreement in trends for voltage rectification and sheath admittance vs. RF driving voltage is found.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Parametric identification of human operator models
The accurate and efficient identification of the human operator is still a need in human factors engineering especially concerning multivariable control. Control theoretic identification methods need to be tested with human operator models under realistic boundary conditons. The requirements and criteria for the use of parametric methods, selected models as well as the Maximum Likelihood Method and the Extended Kalman Filter are displayed. The experiments and results are comparatively discussed from the point of practical engineering.
Ninz, N. R.↗
“Which Projections Do I Use?” Strategies for Climate Model Ensemble Subset Selection Based on Regional Stakeholder Needs
Climate model (or earth system model) projections are increasingly used for climate adaptation planning and impact assessments. As part of this process, many end‐users evaluate a subset of downscaled climate projections without being aware of the implications of downscaling methodology for statistics or event outcomes. Approaches for determining a subset of global climate models to use often focus on values from the raw models, rather than from their downscaled counterparts, in other words assuming that the statistical distribution of the multi‐model ensemble does not change post downscaling. This study demonstrates that a downscaled ensemble will typically retain the change distribution as a raw ensemble, but individual models can differ dramatically post‐downscaling. We recommend that subset‐selection methods account for this possibility and that decision‐relevant downscaled climate projections provide proper descriptions of fitness‐for‐purpose and essential caveats, so that non‐specialists can interpret the results with an appropriate level of confidence.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Open‐source photovoltaic model pipeline validation against well‐characterized system data
Abstract All freely available plane‐of‐array (POA) transposition models and photovoltaic (PV) temperature and performance models in pvlib‐python and pvpltools‐python were examined against multiyear field data from Albuquerque, New Mexico. The data include different PV systems composed of crystalline silicon modules that vary in cell type, module construction, and materials. These systems have been characterized via IEC 61853‐1 and 61853‐2 testing, and the input data for each model were sourced from these system‐specific test results, rather than considering any generic input data (e.g., manufacturer's specification [spec] sheets or generic Panneau Solaire [PAN] files). Six POA transposition models, 7 temperature models, and 12 performance models are included in this comparative analysis. These freely available models were proven effective across many different types of technologies. The POA transposition models exhibited average normalized mean bias errors (NMBEs) within ±3%. Most PV temperature models underestimated temperature exhibiting mean and median residuals ranging from −6.5°C to 2.7°C; all temperature models saw a reduction in root mean square error when using transient assumptions over steady state. The performance models demonstrated similar behavior with a first and third interquartile NMBEs within ±4.2% and an overall average NMBE within ±2.3%. Although differences among models were observed at different times of the day/year, this study shows that the availability of system‐specific input data is more important than model selection. For example, using spec sheet or generic PAN file data with a complex PV performance model does not guarantee a better accuracy than a simpler PV performance model that uses system‐specific data.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Calibrating Microscopic Car-Following Models for Adaptive Cruise Control Vehicles: Multiobjective Approach
Adaptive cruise control (ACC) vehicles are the first step toward comprehensive vehicle automation. However, the impacts of such vehicles on the underlying traffic flow are not yet clear. Therefore, it is of interest to accurately model vehicle-level dynamics of commercially available ACC vehicles so that they may be used in further modeling efforts to quantify the impact of commercially available ACC vehicles on traffic flow. Importantly, not only model selection but also the calibration approach and error metric used for calibration are critical to accurately model ACC vehicle behavior. In this work, we explore the question of how to calibrate car following models to describe ACC vehicle dynamics. Specifically, we apply a multi-objective calibration approach to understand the tradeoff between calibrating model parameters to minimize speed error vs. spacing error. Three different car-following models are calibrated for data from six vehicles. The results are in line with recent literature and verify that targeting a low spacing error does not compromise the speed accuracy whether the opposite is not true for modeling ACC vehicle dynamics.
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
Grid Topology Discovery Algorithm Evaluation of Suitability for Utility Deployment (CRADA 606 Final Report)
This work presents the results of a field-informed demonstration aimed at evaluating the practical suitability of a topology discovery algorithm for utility environments. We demonstrated an algorithm that uses a graph-theory-informed state estimation approach for model selection. In collaboration with Survalent and Peninsula Light Co., the algorithm was applied to real feeder models and field measurements from supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) and advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) systems to identify the operational topology of a power distribution system. The demonstration assessed the algorithm’s performance under realistic data conditions, including sparse and noisy measurements, and examined its ability to identify the most likely network configurations. The results confirmed that the approach can effectively narrow down feasible topologies, providing operators with improved situational awareness of network status. Key lessons learned emphasize the need for systematic data validation and strategic sensor placement to enhance observability. These insights inform future deployment strategies and guide refinements for broader adoption in utility operations.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Effects of scaled heatshield tile misalignment on Orbiter boundary-layer transition
The article addresses the problem of assessing the sensitivity of the heat transfer rate of a Space Orbiter windward surface and boundary-layer transition data to surface features, or 'roughness elements', characteristic of randomly misaligned heat shield tiles. Selected heat shield tiles were precision-formed on the surface of a 0.0175-scale Orbiter model. Selective electroless plating and selective electrochemical etching techniques were employed. Effects of roughness on the location of boundary-layer transition were markedly influenced by the wall-to-total temperature ratios, according to wind-tunnel test results.
Goodrich, W. D.↗
The backscattering and extinction of visible and infrared radiation by selected major cloud models.
Volume backscattering functions and optical extinction coefficients for visible and IR RADIATION and selected cloud models
BACKSCATTER↗
Machine learning-enhanced hybrid modeling approach for better identification of a building thermal network model and improved prediction
The gray-box modeling approach, which uses a semi-physical thermal network model, has been widely used in building prediction applications, such as model predictive control (MPC). However, unmeasured disturbances, such as occupants, lighting, and in/exfiltration loads, make it challenging to apply this approach to practical buildings. In this word, we propose a hybrid modeling approach that integrates the gray-box model with a model for unmeasured disturbance. After reviewing several system identification approaches, we systematically designed the unmeasured disturbance model with a model selection process based on statistical tests to make it robust. We generated data based on the building model calibrated by real operational data and then trained the hybrid model for two different weather conditions. The hybrid model approach demonstrates an RMSE reduction of approximately 0.2–0.9 °C and 0.3–2 °C on 1-day ahead temperature prediction compared to the Conventional approach for mild (Berkeley, CA) and cold (Chicago, IL) climates, respectively. In addition, this approach was applied to experimental data obtained from the laboratory building to be used for the MPC application, showing superior prediction performances.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
LOGOS
LOGOS is a software package which contains a set of discrete optimization models that can be employed for capital budgeting optimization problems. More specifically, provided a set of items (characterized by cost and reward values) and constraints, these models select the best combination of items which maximizes overall reward and satisfies the provided constraints. The developed models are based on different versions of the knapsack optimization algorithms. Two main classes of optimization models have been initially developed: deterministic and stochastic. Stochastic optimization models evolve deterministic models by explicitly considering data uncertainties (associated to constraints or item cost and reward). These models can be employed as stand-alone models or interfaced with the INL developed RAVEN code to propagate data uncertainties and analyze the generated data (i.e., sensitivity analysis).
Wang, Congjian↗
Improvements to CTF Closure Models for Modelling of Two-Phase Flow
This report documents the efforts to improve the CTF prediction of void fraction and two-phase pressure drop by improving two-phase closure models. Previous validation activities have revealed that CTF tends to overpredict void fraction and two-phase pressure drop. In response to this, two approaches were taken to improve CTF’s predictive capabilities. Based on findings that the interfacial drag and subcooled boiling models significantly impact void prediction, alternative closure models for these physical effects were found and implemented into the code. An extensive assessment was performed by using the existing and newly added two-phase experimental data, which showed that void prediction, wall temperature, and two-phase pressure-drop results are improved by using the newly implemented models. A second approach for improving CTF modeling accuracy involved the use of a Bayesian calibration process that uses CTF validation data to optimize selected modeling coefficients and closure model multipliers to achieve a more accurate prediction of experimental results. A similar assessment was performed with calibrated models that improved the void and pressure-drop prediction for test cases that were both included and not included in the calibration dataset. Results of this study will be used to change the models used in CTF to achieve more accurate BWR analyses moving forward. This study also identified opportunities for improving additional closure models and other opportunities to use calibration techniques to improve CTF.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Partnership Center for High-Fidelity Boundary Plasma Simulation (Final Report)
Within the Partnership Center for High-Fidelity Boundary Plasma Simulation (HBPS), work at UT-Austin was aimed at improved verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) for edge plasma simulations and on performing gyrokinetics simulations of pedestal instabilities and turbulence in order to expand foundational understanding of pedestal transport. Regarding VVUQ, the accomplishments can be summarized as follows. First, it was shown that the Moment Preserving Constrained Resampling technique, when applied periodically in particle-in-cell simulations in the XGC code, can dramatically improve the accuracy of the simulation at essentially equivalent computational cost. Second, a technique for estimating model correlations, which are required to solve the model selection and sample allocation problem in multifidelity UQ techniques, without sampling the highest fidelity, most computationally expensive model, was developed and demonstrated. Third, previously developed methods for estimating statistical and discretization errors were applied to numerical methods relevant to edge plasma simulations, namely in particle-in-cell-based approaches, and shown to work. Finally, benchmark studies for comparing gyrokinetic codes were developed and performed, leading to reasonable agreement between four commonly used codes. Regarding physics studies, gyrokinetic simulations to investigate microtearing modes in the DIII-D pedestal were performed using the GENE code.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗