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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

Trend Detection of Atmospheric Time Series: Incorporating Appropriate Uncertainty Estimates and Handling Extreme Events

This paper is aimed at atmospheric scientists without formal training in statistical theory. Its goal is to, 1) provide a critical review of the rationale for trend analysis of the time series typically encountered in the field of atmospheric chemistry; 2) describe a range of trend-detection methods; and 3) demonstrate effective means of conveying the results to a general audience. Trend detections in atmospheric chemical composition data are often challenged by a variety of sources of uncertainty, which often behave differently to other environmental phenomena such as temperature, precipitation rate, or stream flow, and may require specific methods depending on the science questions to be addressed. Some sources of uncertainty can be explicitly included in the model specification, such as autocorrelation and seasonality, but some inherent uncertainties are difficult to quantify, such as data heterogeneity and measurement uncertainty due to the combined effect of short- and long-term natural variability, instrumental stability, and aggregation of data from sparse sampling frequency. Failure to account for these uncertainties might result in an inappropriate inference of the trends and their estimation errors. On the other hand, the variation in extreme events might be interesting for different scientific questions, for example, the frequency of extremely high surface ozone events and their relevance to human health. In this study we aim to, 1) review trend detection methods for addressing different levels of data complexity in different chemical species; 2) demonstrate that the incorporation of scientifically interpretable covariates can outperform pure numerical curve fitting techniques in terms of uncertainty reduction and improved predictability; 3) illustrate the study of trends based on extreme quantiles that can provide insight beyond standard mean or median based trend estimates; and 4) present an advanced method of quantifying regional trends based on the inter-site correlations of multi-site data. All demonstrations are based on time series of observed trace gases relevant to atmospheric chemistry, but the methods can be applied to other environmental data sets.

Trace gas↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deliverable 6.7-Final Technical Report: Development Summary and Evaluation of the Solar Uncertainty Integrator (SUNI) Software

The Data Quality and Uncertainty Integration Project was a three-year effort to address stakeholder needs for assessing solar radiation resource data quality based on existing tools for estimating radiometer measurement uncertainties and assessing post-measurement data quality. The annual research objectives for the project addressed a logical progression of effort needed to achieve the ultimate project goal of developing the Solar Uncertainty Integrator (SUNI) software. This final technical report summarizes the development process for achieving these key research objectives and addresses the outreach and code development efforts in the final year of the project to develop a new solar irradiance data uncertainty integration software package.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2012

Measuring Segmented Primary Mirror WFE in the Presence of Vibration and Thermal Drift on the Light-Weighted JWST

The light-weighted design of the Optical Telescope Element (OTE) of the James Webb Telescope (JWST) leads to additional sensitivity to vibration from the ground - an important consideration to the measurement uncertainty of the wavefront error (WFE) in the primary mirror. Furthermore, segmentation of the primary mirror leads to rigid-body movements of segment areas in the WFE. The ground vibrations are minimized with modifications to the test facility, and by the architecture of the equipment supporting the load. Additional special test equipment (including strategically placed isolators, tunable mass dampers, and cryogenic magnetic dampers) mitigates the vibration and the response sensitivity before reaching the telescope. A multi-wavelength interferometer is designed and operated to accommodate the predicted residual vibration. Thermal drift also adds to the measurement variation. Test results of test equipment components, measurement theory, and finite element analysis combine to predict the test uncertainty in the future measurement of the primary mirror. The vibration input to the finite element model comes from accelerometer measurements of the facility with the environmental control pumps operating. One of the isolators have been built and tested to validate the dynamic performance. A preliminary model of the load support equipment and the OTE with the Integrated Science Instrument Module (ISIM) is complete. The performance of the add-on dampers have been established in previous applications. And operation of the multi-wavelength interferometer was demonstrated on a scaled hardware version of the JWST in an environment with vibration and thermal drift.

Whitman, Tony L.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of DIII-D Pedestal Structure From Externally Controllable Parameters

The sharp increase of pressure at the edge of a high confinement mode (H-mode) plasma, the pedestal, strongly impacts overall plasma performance. Predicting the pedestal is a necessity to control and optimize tokamak operations. Here, an experimental data-driven machine learning (ML) approach is presented that predicts the pedestal heights and widths of electron density (n e ) and electron temperature (T e ) profiles as well as the separatrix ne from externally controllable parameters such as the plasma shape, heating method and power, and gas puff rate and integrated gas puff. The OMFIT framework was used with DIII-D data to efficiently, robustly, and automatically build a database of pedestal parameters to train machine learning models. Database creation was enabled by the search engine tool for DIII-D data, TokSearch, which parallelizes data fetching, enabling fast searches through basic signals of thousands of DIII-D shots and selection of relevant time intervals. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) separated the database into three clusters that represent classes of plasma shapes that are regularly used in DIII-D. The most important parameters for setting the pedestal structure were plasma current (I p ), toroidal magnetic field (B Φ ), neutral beam heating power (P NBI ) and shaping quantities. The Deep Jointly Informed Neural Networks (DJINN) algorithm was applied to identify suitable neural network (NN) architectures that appropriately capture the features of the pedestal database. Separate NNs were implemented for each pedestal parameter, and ensembling methods were used to improve the prediction accuracy and allowed estimation of the prediction uncertainty. The pedestal predictions of the test dataset lie within the measurement uncertainties of the pedestal parameters. The NN outperformed simple Linear Regression (LR) analysis, indicating non-linear dependencies in the pedestal structure. The presented achievements illustrate a promising path for future research, using feature extraction to infer experimental trends and thereby improve pedestal models as well as deploying NN for a fast pedestal prediction in DIII-D scenario development.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Rossi-alpha Uncertainty Quantification by Analytic, Bootstrap, and Sample Methods to Inform Fitting Best Practices

The prompt neutron period (the negative reciprocal of the prompt neutron decay constant) can be estimated using the Rossi-alpha technique that is predicated on fitting Rossi alpha histograms and of interest in nuclear criticality safety and nonproliferation. The histograms are traditionally fit with a one-exponential model; however, recent work has proposed a two-exponential model to account for reflector induced phenomenon. Until recently, the uncertainty quantification for either model was inadequate (inaccurate and demanded large measurement times). Measurement uncertainty quantification by sample and analytic methods was developed and validated in Ref. The purpose of this transaction is to (i) validate a new bootstrap method by comparing bin-by-bin error bar estimates and (ii) demonstrate how to choose bin widths and reset times to optimize precision and accuracy.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Prediction of DIII-D Pedestal Structure from Externally Controllable Parameters

The sharp increase of pressure at the edge of a high confinement mode (H-mode) plasma, the pedestal, strongly impacts overall plasma performance. Predicting the pedestal is a necessity to control and optimize tokamak operations. An experimental data-driven machine learning (ML) approach is presented that predicts the pedestal heights and widths of electron density (ne) and electron temperature (Te) profiles as well as the separatrix ne from externally controllable parameters such as the plasma shape, heating method and power, and gas puff rate and integrated gas puff. The OMFIT framework was used with DIII-D data to efficiently, robustly, and automatically build a database of pedestal parameters to train machine learning models. Database creation was enabled by the search engine tool for DIII-D data, TokSearch, which parallelizes data fetching, enabling fast searches through basic signals of thousands of DIII-D shots and selection of relevant time intervals. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) separated the database into three clusters that represent classes of plasma shapes that are regularly used in DIII-D. The most important parameters for setting the pedestal structure were plasma current (Ip), toroidal magnetic field (Bφ), neutral beam heating power (PNBI) and shaping quantities. The Deep Jointly Informed Neural Networks (DJINN) algorithm was applied to identify suitable neural network (NN) architectures that appropriately capture the features of the pedestal database. Separate NNs were implemented for each pedestal parameter, and ensembling methods were used to improve the prediction accuracy and allowed estimation of the prediction uncertainty. The pedestal predictions of the test dataset lie within the measurement uncertainties of the pedestal parameters. The NN outperformed simple Linear Regression (LR) analysis, indicating non-linear dependencies in the pedestal structure. The presented achievements illustrate a promising path for future research, using feature extraction to infer experimental trends and thereby improve pedestal models as well as deploying NN for a fast pedestal prediction in DIII-D scenario development.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2001

AMSD Alignment Sensitivity Analysis

A review of the optical layout for AMSD testing is presented. This includes all optical components from the point source to the mirror under test. The independent sources of error and uncertainty are discussed, and the approach to determining and reducing the measurement uncertainties is presented.

Reardon, Patrick↗
NASA NTRS2010

NASA Rotor 37 CFD Code Validation: Glenn-HT Code

In order to advance the goals of NASA aeronautics programs, it is necessary to continuously evaluate and improve the computational tools used for research and design at NASA. One such code is the Glenn-HT code which is used at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) for turbomachinery computations. Although the code has been thoroughly validated for turbine heat transfer computations, it has not been utilized for compressors. In this work, Glenn-HT was used to compute the flow in a transonic compressor and comparisons were made to experimental data. The results presented here are in good agreement with this data. Most of the measures of performance are well within the measurement uncertainties and the exit profiles of interest agree with the experimental measurements.

Ameri, Ali A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

High Ice Water Content at Low Radar Reflectivity near Deep Convection: Consistency of In Situ and Remote-Sensing Observations with Stratiform Rain Column Simulations - Part I

Occurrences of jet engine power loss and damage have been associated with flight through fully glaciated deep convection at -10 to -50 degrees Centigrade. Power loss events commonly occur during flight through radar reflectivity (Zeta (sub e)) less than 20-30 decibels relative to Zeta (dBZ - radar returns) and no more than moderate turbulence, often overlying moderate to heavy rain near the surface. During 2010-2012, Airbus carried out flight tests seeking to characterize the highest ice water content (IWC) in such low-radar-reflectivity regions of large, cold-topped storm systems in the vicinity of Cayenne, Darwin, and Santiago. Within the highest IWC regions encountered, at typical sampling elevations (circa 11 kilometers), the measured ice size distributions exhibit a notably narrow concentration of mass over area-equivalent diameters of 100-500 micrometers. Given substantial and poorly quantified measurement uncertainties, here we evaluate the consistency of the Airbus in situ measurements with ground-based profiling radar observations obtained under quasi-steady, heavy stratiform rain conditions in one of the Airbus-sampled locations. We find that profiler-observed radar reflectivities and mean Doppler velocities at Airbus sampling temperatures are generally consistent with those calculated from in situ size-distribution measurements. We also find that column simulations using the in situ size distributions as an upper boundary condition are generally consistent with observed profiles of radar reflectivity (Ze), mean Doppler velocity (MDV), and retrieved rain rate. The results of these consistency checks motivate an examination of the microphysical pathways that could be responsible for the observed size-distribution features in Ackerman et al. (2015).

Rain↗
NASA NTRS2023

Uncertainty Analysis of the NASA Glenn 8- by 6-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel 2019 Characterization Test 14-Foot, 5.8 Percent Test Section Porosity

This paper presents methods and results of a measurement uncertainty analysis that was performed for the 8- by 6-foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel located at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The uncertainty analysis is based on data collected during a characterization test following major structural modifications to the facility and upgrades to the facility’s data and control systems. The statistical methods and engineering judgments used to estimate elemental uncertainties are described in this report. The Monte Carlo method of propagating uncertainty was selected to determine the uncertainty of calculated variables of interest. A description of the Monte Carlo method as applied for this analysis is provided. The primary variable of interest (VOI) for this facility is free stream Mach number. In addition to determining the uncertainty in Mach number, the uncertainty in free stream values of static pressure, total pressure, dynamic pressure, total temperature, static temperature, Reynolds number, and air speed were also calculated. Uncertainty results are presented as random (unpredictable variation in repeated measurements), systematic (potential offset between observed and true value), and total (random and systematic combined) uncertainty for Mach number. Systematic uncertainty results are presented for the other VOIs. Individual uncertainty sources are presented both dimensionally and as percent contributions to uncertainty in all VOIs, to aid in the identification of primary uncertainty sources.

Uncertainty Analysis↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty Propagation from Flux to α and from Time to α in Reaction History

This report documents measurement uncertainty propagation from flux to α and from time to α in gamma reaction history. Analytical formulas are derived, and on the basis of them, their discrete versions are provided to serve for current reaction history software verification, and for development of the future versions of the software. The discrete version is provided for the general case: sparse data with varying time intervals between the data points.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Laser Doppler vibrometry for piezoelectric coefficient ($d_{33}$) measurements in irradiated aluminum nitride

Sensors used for experiments in advanced reactors must survive in harsh environments. Few material systems can be used to construct sensors viable for extreme conditions. Aluminum nitride (AlN) is one such material because it has high thermal stability and radiation resistance and sustains good piezoelectric and dielectric properties at high temperatures. In this work, the piezoelectric coefficient $d_{33}$ of the AlN single-crystal with thermal and irradiation damage was investigated using an indirect method with a laser Doppler vibrometer (LDV). Surface electrodes were deposited on the AlN samples, and the vibration response of the samples to an applied voltage was monitored using the LDV as a function of the excitation frequency. The $d_{33}$ estimation was based on the excitation voltage and the thickness-mode displacement extracted from the LDV measurements. Further, six AlN substrates were irradiated with 8 MeV Al 2+ at three fluences (10 15 , 10 16 , and 10 17 ions/cm 2 ) and two temperatures (300 °C and 500 °C). The $d_{33}$ for the six irradiated samples and one pristine sample were measured, and the measurement uncertainty was estimated based on five repeated tests. All samples were also measured by a commercial piezometer for comparison. The experimental results demonstrate that the piezoelectric coefficients obtained by LDV were about 0.8–1.16 pm/V lower than those obtained by the piezometer. With the compensation of the clamping effect, the corrected LDV values are similar to the piezometer results. Both show similar trends in all samples, which validates the feasibility of the proposed method for $d_{33}$ measurement. Based on the LDV results, the irradiated samples show a 12%–22% decrease in $d_{33}$ compared with the pristine samples. The samples irradiated under the same fluence at a higher temperature (500 °C) demonstrated a lower $d_{33}$ than those at 300 °C. The effect of the retro-reflective tape, sample temperature, and sample size on the $d_{33}$ measurement were also studied.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Prediction on X-ray output of free electron laser based on artificial neural networks

Abstract Knowledge of x-ray free electron lasers’ (XFELs) pulse characteristics delivered to a sample is crucial for ensuring high-quality x-rays for scientific experiments. XFELs’ self-amplified spontaneous emission process causes spatial and spectral variations in x-ray pulses entering a sample, which leads to measurement uncertainties for experiments relying on multiple XFEL pulses. Accurate in-situ measurements of x-ray wavefront and energy spectrum incident upon a sample poses challenges. Here we address this by developing a virtual diagnostics framework using an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict x-ray photon beam properties from electron beam properties. We recorded XFEL electron parameters while adjusting the accelerator’s configurations and measured the resulting x-ray wavefront and energy spectrum shot-to-shot. Training the ANN with this data enables effective prediction of single-shot or average x-ray beam output based on XFEL undulator and electron parameters. This demonstrates the potential of utilizing ANNs for virtual diagnostics linking XFEL electron and photon beam properties.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model Evaluation by Measurements from Collocated Remote Sensors in Complex Terrain

Model improvement efforts involve an evaluation of changes in model skill in response to changes in model physics and parameterization. When using wind measurements from various remote sensors to determine model forecast accuracy, it is important to understand the effects of measurement-uncertainty differences among the sensors resulting from differences in the methods of measurement, the vertical and temporal resolution of the measurements, and the spatial variability of these differences. Here we quantify instrument measurement variability in 80-m wind speed during WFIP2 and its impact on the calculated errors and the change in error from one model version to another. Here the model versions tested involved updates in model physics from HRRRv1 to HRRRv4, and reductions in grid interval from 3 km to 750 m. Model errors were found to be 2–3 m s –1 . Differences in errors as determined by various instruments at each site amounted to about 10% of this value, or 0.2–0.3 m s –1 . Changes in model skill due to physics or grid-resolution updates also differed depending on the instrument used to determine the errors; most of the instrument-to-instrument differences were ~0.1 m s –1 , but some reached 0.3 m s –1 . All instruments at a given site mostly showed consistency in the sign of the change in error. In two examples, though, the sign changed, illustrating a consequence of differences in measurements: errors determined using one instrument may show improvement in model skill, whereas errors determined using another instrument may indicate degradation. This possibility underscores the importance of having accurate measurements to determine the model error.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1991

Fuzzy geometry, entropy, and image information

Presented here are various uncertainty measures arising from grayness ambiguity and spatial ambiguity in an image, and their possible applications as image information measures. Definitions are given of an image in the light of fuzzy set theory, and of information measures and tools relevant for processing/analysis e.g., fuzzy geometrical properties, correlation, bound functions and entropy measures. Also given is a formulation of algorithms along with management of uncertainties for segmentation and object extraction, and edge detection. The output obtained here is both fuzzy and nonfuzzy. Ambiguity in evaluation and assessment of membership function are also described.

Pal, Sankar K.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Assessing Uncertainties of a Geophysical Approach to Estimate Surface Fine Particulate Matter Distributions from Satellite-Observed Aerosol Optical Depth

Health impact analyses are increasingly tapping the broad spatial coverage of satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) products to estimate human exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5). We use a forward geophysical approach to derive ground-level PM2.5 distributions from satellite AOD at 1 km2(exp) resolution for 2011 over the northeastern US by applying relationships between surface PM2.5 and column AOD (calculated offline from speciated mass distributions) from a regional air quality model (CMAQ; 12×12 km2(exp) horizontal resolution). Seasonal average satellite-derived PM2.5 reveals more spatial detail and best captures observed surface PM2.5 levels during summer. At the daily scale, however, satellite-derived PM2.5 is not only subject to measurement uncertainties from satellite instruments, but more importantly to uncertainties in the relationship between surface PM2.5 and column AOD. Using 11 ground-based AOD measurements within 10 km of surface PM2.5 monitors, we show that uncertainties in modeled PM2.5∕AOD can explain more than 70 % of the spatial and temporal variance in the total uncertainty in daily satellite-derived PM2.5 evaluated at PM2.5 monitors. This finding implies that a successful geophysical approach to deriving daily PM2.5 from satellite AOD requires model skill at capturing day-to-day variations in PM2.5∕AOD relationships. Overall, we estimate that uncertainties in the modeled PM2.5∕AOD lead to an error of 11 µg m−3(exp) in daily satellite-derived PM2.5, and uncertainties in satellite AOD lead to an error of 8 µg m−3(exp). Using multi-platform ground, airborne, and radiosonde measurements, we show that uncertainties of modeled PM2.5∕AOD are mainly driven by model uncertainties in aerosol column mass and speciation, while model representation of relative humidity and aerosol vertical profile shape contributes some systematic biases. The parameterization of aerosol optical properties, which determines the mass extinction efficiency, also contributes to random uncertainty, with the size distribution being the largest source of uncertainty and hygroscopicity of inorganic salt the second largest. Future efforts to reduce uncertainty in geophysical approaches to derive surface PM2.5 from satellite AOD would thus benefit from improving model representation of aerosol vertical distribution and aerosol optical properties, to narrow uncertainty in satellite-derived PM2.5.

aerosol optical depth↗
NASA NTRS1994

In Situ Measurements of the NO2/NO Ratio for Testing Atmospheric Photochemical Models

Simultaneous in situ measurements of NO2, NO, O3, ClO, pressure and temperature have been made for the first time, presenting a unique opportunity to test our current understanding of the photochemistry of the lower stratosphere. Data were collected from several flights of the ER-2 aircraft at mid-latitudes in May 1993 during NASA's Stratospheric Photochemistry, Aerosols and Dynamics Expedition (SPADE). The daytime ratio of NO2/NO remains fairly constant at 19 km with a typical value of 0.68 and standard deviation of +/- 0.17. The ratio observations are compared with simple steady-state calculations based on laboratory-measured reaction rates and modeled NO2 photolysis rates. At each measurement point the daytime NO2/NO with its measurement uncertainty overlap the results of steady-state calculations and associated uncertainty. However, over all the ER-2 flights examined, the model systematically overestimates the ratio by 40% on average. Possible sources of error are examined in both model and measurements. It is shown that more accurate laboratory determinations of the NO + O3 reaction rate and of the NO2 cross-sections in the 200-220 K temperature range characteristic of the lower stratosphere would allow for a more robust test of our knowledge of NO(x) photochemistry by reducing significant sources of uncertainties in the interpretation of stratospheric measurements. The present measurements are compared with earlier observations of the ratio at higher altitudes.

Jaegle, L.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Decision Science for Machine Learning (DeSciML)

The increasing use of machine learning (ML) models to support high-consequence decision making drives a need to increase the rigor of ML-based decision making. Critical problems ranging from climate change to nonproliferation monitoring rely on machine learning for aspects of their analyses. Likewise, future technologies, such as incorporation of data-driven methods into the stockpile surveillance and predictive failure analysis for weapons components, will all rely on decision-making that incorporates the output of machine learning models. In this project, our main focus was the development of decision scientific methods that combine uncertainty estimates for machine learning predictions, with a domain-specific model of error costs. Other focus areas include uncertainty measurement in ML predictions, designing decision rules using multiobjecive optimization, the value of uncertainty reduction, and decision-tailored uncertainty quantification for probability estimates. By laying foundations for rigorous decision making based on the predictions of machine learning models, these approaches are directly relevant to every national security mission that applies, or will apply, machine learning to data, most of which entail some decision context.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗