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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1978

Space ecosynthesis: An approach to the design of closed ecosystems for use in space

The use of closed ecological systems for the regeneration of wastes, air, and water is discussed. It is concluded that such systems, if they are to be used for the support of humans in space, will require extensive mechanical and physico-chemical support. The reason for this is that the buffering capacity available in small systems is inadequate, and that natural biological and physical regulatory mechanisms rapidly become inoperative. It is proposed that mathematical models of the dynamics of a closed ecological system may provide the best means of studying the initial problems of ecosystem closure. A conceptual and mathematical model of a closed ecosystem is described which treats the biological components as a farm, calculates the rates of flow of elements through the system by mass-balance techniques and control theory postulates, and can evaluate the requirements for mechanical buffering activities. It is suggested that study of the closure of ecosystems can significantly aid in the establishment of general principles of ecological systems.

Macelroy, R. D.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Daily Forecasting of Regional Epidemics of Coronavirus Disease with Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification, United States

To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policymaking, we formulated a mathematical model for coronavirus disease transmission within a regional population. This compartmental model accounts for quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, a nonexponentially distributed incubation period, asymptomatic persons, and mild and severe forms of symptomatic disease. We used Bayesian inference to calibrate region-specific models for consistency with daily reports of confirmed cases in the 15 most populous metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. We also quantified uncertainty in parameter estimates and forecasts. This online learning approach enables early identification of new trends despite considerable variability in case reporting.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mathematical model of broadly reactive plasma cell production

Strain-specific plasma cells are capable of producing neutralizing antibodies that are essential for clearance of challenging pathogens. These neutralizing antibodies also function as a main defense against disease establishment in a host. However, when a rapidly mutating pathogen infects a host, successful control of the invasion requires shifting the production of plasma cells from strain-specific to broadly reactive. In this study, we develop a mathematical model of germinal center dynamics and use it to predict the events that lead to improved breadth of the plasma cell response. We examine scenarios that lead to germinal centers that are composed of B-cells that come from a single strain-specific clone, a single broadly reactive clone or both clones. We find that the initial B-cell clonal composition, T-follicular helper cell signaling, increased rounds of productive somatic hypermutation, and B-cell selection strength are among the mechanisms differentiating between strain-specific and broadly reactive plasma cell production during infections. Understanding the contribution of these factors to emergence of breadth may assist in boosting broadly reactive plasma cells production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A multiscale model of the action of a capsid assembly modulator for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is strongly associated with increased risk of liver cancer and cirrhosis. While existing treatments effectively inhibit the HBV life cycle, viral rebound frequently occurs following treatment interruption. Consequently, functional cure rates of chronic HBV infection remain low and there is increased interest in a novel treatment modality, capsid assembly modulators (CAMs). Here, we develop a multiscale mathematical model of CAM treatment in chronic HBV infection. By fitting the model to participant data from a phase I trial of the first-generation CAM vebicorvir, we estimate the drug’s dose-dependent effectiveness and identify the physiological mechanisms that drive the observed biphasic decline in HBV DNA and RNA, and mechanistic differences between HBeAg-positive and negative infection. Finally, we demonstrate analytically and numerically that the relative change of HBV RNA more accurately reflects the antiviral effectiveness of a CAM than the relative change in HBV DNA.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Verifying infectious disease scenario planning for geographically diverse populations

In the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, the literature saw a spike in publications for epidemic models, and a renewed interest in capturing contact networks and geographic movement of populations. There remains a general lack of consensus in the modeling community around best practices for spatiotemporal epi-modeling, specifically as it pertains to the infection rate formulation and the underlying contact or mixing model. We mathematically verify several common modeling assumptions in the literature, to prove when certain choices can provide consistent results across different geographic resolutions, population densities and patterns, and mixing assumptions. The most common infection rate formulation, a computationally low cost per capita infection rate assumption, fails the consistency tests for heterogeneous populations and gravity-weighting assumptions. Future modeling efforts in spatiotemporal disease modeling should be wary of this limitation, particularly when working with more heterogeneous or sparse populations. Our results provide guidance for testing that a model preserves desirable properties even when model inputs mask potential problems due to symmetry or homogeneity. We also provide a recipe for performing this type of verification, strengthening decision support tools.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Genome-Scale Metabolic Modeling Enables In-Depth Understanding of Big Data

Genome-scale metabolic models (GEMs) enable the mathematical simulation of the metabolism of archaea, bacteria, and eukaryotic organisms. GEMs quantitatively define a relationship between genotype and phenotype by contextualizing different types of Big Data (e.g., genomics, metabolomics, and transcriptomics). In this review, we analyze the available Big Data useful for metabolic modeling and compile the available GEM reconstruction tools that integrate Big Data. We also discuss recent applications in industry and research that include predicting phenotypes, elucidating metabolic pathways, producing industry-relevant chemicals, identifying drug targets, and generating knowledge to better understand host-associated diseases. In addition to the up-to-date review of GEMs currently available, we assessed a plethora of tools for developing new GEMs that include macromolecular expression and dynamic resolution. Finally, we provide a perspective in emerging areas, such as annotation, data managing, and machine learning, in which GEMs will play a key role in the further utilization of Big Data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model certainty in cellular network-driven processes with missing data

Mathematical models are often used to explore network-driven cellular processes from a systems perspective. However, a dearth of quantitative data suitable for model calibration leads to models with parameter unidentifiability and questionable predictive power. Here we introduce a combined Bayesian and Machine Learning Measurement Model approach to explore how quantitative and non-quantitative data constrain models of apoptosis execution within a missing data context. We find model prediction accuracy and certainty strongly depend on rigorous data-driven formulations of the measurement, and the size and make-up of the datasets. For instance, two orders of magnitude more ordinal (e.g., immunoblot) data are necessary to achieve accuracy comparable to quantitative (e.g., fluorescence) data for calibration of an apoptosis execution model. Notably, ordinal and nominal (e.g., cell fate observations) non-quantitative data synergize to reduce model uncertainty and improve accuracy. Finally, we demonstrate the potential of a data-driven Measurement Model approach to identify model features that could lead to informative experimental measurements and improve model predictive power.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mathematical modeling of plus-strand RNA virus replication to identify broad-spectrum antiviral treatment strategies

Plus-strand RNA viruses are the largest group of viruses. Many are human pathogens that inflict a socio-economic burden. Interestingly, plus-strand RNA viruses share remarkable similarities in their replication. A hallmark of plus-strand RNA viruses is the remodeling of intracellular membranes to establish replication organelles (so-called “replication factories”), which provide a protected environment for the replicase complex, consisting of the viral genome and proteins necessary for viral RNA synthesis. In the current study, we investigate pan-viral similarities and virus-specific differences in the life cycle of this highly relevant group of viruses. We first measured the kinetics of viral RNA, viral protein, and infectious virus particle production of hepatitis C virus (HCV), dengue virus (DENV), and coxsackievirus B3 (CVB3) in the immuno-compromised Huh7 cell line and thus without perturbations by an intrinsic immune response. Based on these measurements, we developed a detailed mathematical model of the replication of HCV, DENV, and CVB3 and showed that only small virus-specific changes in the model were necessary to describe the in vitro dynamics of the different viruses. Our model correctly predicted virus-specific mechanisms such as host cell translation shut off and different kinetics of replication organelles. Further, our model suggests that the ability to suppress or shut down host cell mRNA translation may be a key factor for in vitro replication efficiency, which may determine acute self-limited or chronic infection. We further analyzed potential broad-spectrum antiviral treatment options in silico and found that targeting viral RNA translation, such as polyprotein cleavage and viral RNA synthesis, may be the most promising drug targets for all plus-strand RNA viruses. Moreover, we found that targeting only the formation of replicase complexes did not stop the in vitro viral replication early in infection, while inhibiting intracellular trafficking processes may even lead to amplified viral growth.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A consensus mathematical model of vaccine-induced antibody dynamics for multiple vaccine platforms and pathogens

Introduction: Vaccine platforms used in successful, licensed vaccines have varied among pathogens. However, antibody level is still the main clinical correlate of protection in most approved vaccines. Decisions as to the best vaccine platform to pursue for a given pathogen may be informed through improved understanding of the process of antibody generation and its temporal dynamics, as well as the relationship between these processes and the type of vaccine. Methods: We have analyzed the dynamics of antibody generation for different vaccine platforms against diverse pathogens, and developed a consensus mathematical model that captures antibody dynamics across these diverse systems. Initially, the model was fitted to a rich dataset of antibody and immune cell concentrations in a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine experiment. We then used concepts from machine learning, such as transfer learning, to apply the same model to a variety of systems, involving different pathogens, vaccine platforms, and booster dose use/timing, fixing most parameter values relating to the dynamics of the immune system. Results: The model includes B cell proliferation and differentiation, as well as the generation of plasma cells, which secrete large amounts of antibody, and memory B cells. Overall, the model describes antibody generation in all systems tested well and shows that the main differences across platforms are related to the dynamics of antigen presentation. Discussion: This model can be used to predict antibody generation in pairs of vaccine platform/pathogen, allowing for the use of in silico results to narrow down experimental burden in vaccine development.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mechanistic within-host mathematical model of inhalational anthrax

We present a mathematical model of the dynamics of Bacillus anthracis bacteria within the lymph nodes and blood of a host, following inhalation of an initial dose of spores. We also incorporate the dynamics of protective antigen, which is the binding component of the anthrax toxin produced by the bacteria. The model offers a mechanistic description of the early infection dynamics of inhalational anthrax, while its stochastic nature allows us to study the probabilities of different outcomes (for example, how likely it is that the infection will be cleared for a given inhaled dose of spores) in order to explain dose-response data for inhalational anthrax. The model is calibrated via a Bayesian approach, using in vivo data from New Zealand white rabbit and guinea pig infection studies, enabling within-host parameters to be estimated. We also leverage incubation-period data from the Sverdlovsk 1979 anthrax outbreak to show that the model can accurately describe human time-to-symptoms data under reasonable parameter regimes. Finally, we derive a simple approximate formula for the probability of symptom onset before time t, assuming that the number of inhaled spores has a Poisson distribution.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A 1D–0D–3D coupled model for simulating blood flow and transport processes in breast tissue

In this work, we present mixed dimensional models for simulating blood flow and transport processes in breast tissue and the vascular tree supplying it. These processes are considered, to start from the aortic inlet to the capillaries and tissue of the breast. Large variations in biophysical properties and flow conditions exist in this system necessitating the use of different flow models for different geometries and flow regimes. In total, we consider four different model types. First, a system of 1D nonlinear hyperbolic partial differential equations (PDEs) is considered to simulate blood flow in larger arteries with highly elastic vessel walls. Second, we assign 1D linearized hyperbolic PDEs to model the smaller arteries with stiffer vessel walls. The third model type consists of ODE systems (0D models). It is used to model the arterioles and peripheral circulation. Finally, homogenized 3D porous media models are considered to simulate flow and transport in capillaries and tissue within the breast volume. Sink terms are used to account for the influence of the venous and lymphatic systems. Combining the four model types, we obtain two different 1D–0D–3D coupled models for simulating blood flow and transport processes: The first model results in a fully coupled 1D–0D–3D model covering the complete path from the aorta to the breast combining a generic arterial network with a patient specific breast network and geometry. The second model is a reduced one based on the separation of the generic and patient specific parts. The information from a calibrated fully coupled model is used as inflow condition for the patient specific sub-model allowing a significant computational cost reduction. Several numerical experiments are conducted to calibrate the generic model parameters and to demonstrate realistic flow simulations compared to existing data on blood flow in the human breast and vascular system. Moreover, we use two different breast vasculature and tissue data sets to illustrate the robustness of our reduced sub-model approach.

multiscale blood flow models↗
DOE OSTI2024

Computational tools and algorithms for ion mobility spectrometry-mass spectrometry

Ion mobility spectrometry-mass spectrometry (IMS-MS or IM-MS) is a powerful analytical technique that combines the gas-phase separation capabilities of IM with the identification and quantification capabilities of MS. IM-MS can differentiate molecules with indistinguishable masses but different structures (e.g., isomers, isobars, molecular classes, and contaminant ions). The importance of this analytical technique is reflected by a staged increase in the number of applications for molecular characterization across a variety of fields, from different MS-based omics (proteomics, metabolomics, lipidomics, etc.) to the structural characterization of glycans, organic matter, proteins, and macromolecular complexes. With the increasing application of IM-MS there is a pressing need for effective and accessible computational tools. This article presents an overview of the most recent free and open-source software tools specifically tailored for the analysis and interpretation of data derived from IM-MS instrumentation. This review enumerates these tools and outlines their main algorithmic approaches, while highlighting representative applications across different fields. Finally, a discussion of current limitations and expectable improvements is presented.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Molecular basis for higher affinity of SARS-CoV-2 spike RBD for human ACE2 receptor

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused substantially more infections, deaths, and economic disruptions than the 2002-2003 SARSCoV. The key to understanding SARS-CoV-2's higher infectivity lies partly in its host receptor recognition mechanism. Experiments show that the human angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) protein, which serves as the primary receptor for both CoVs, binds to the receptor binding domain (RBD) of CoV-2's spike protein stronger than SARS-CoV's spike RBD. The molecular basis for this difference in binding affinity, however, remains unexplained from X-ray structures. To go beyond insights gained from X-ray structures and investigate the role of thermal fluctuations in structure, we employ all-atom molecular dynamics simulations. Microseconds-long simulations reveal that while CoV and CoV-2 spike-ACE2 interfaces have similar conformational binding modes, CoV-2 spike interacts with ACE2 via a larger combinatorics of polar contacts, and on average, makes 45% more polar contacts. Correlation analysis and thermodynamic calculations indicate that these differences in the density and dynamics of polar contacts arise from differences in spatial arrangements of interfacial residues, and dynamical coupling between interfacial and non-interfacial residues. Furthermore, these results recommend that ongoing efforts to design spike-ACE2 peptide blockers will benefit from incorporating dynamical information as well as allosteric coupling effects.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A hidden Markov model for population-level cervical cancer screening data

The Cancer Registry of Norway has been administrating a national cervical cancer screening program since 1992 by coordinating triennial cytology exam screenings for the female population between 25 and 69 years of age. Up to 80% of cancers are prevented through mass screening, but this comes at the expense of considerable screening activity and leads to overtreatment of clinically asymptomatic precancers. Here, we present a continuous-time, time-inhomogeneous hidden Markov model which was developed to understand the screening process and cervical cancer carcinogenesis in detail. By leveraging 1.7 million individual's multivariate time-series of medical exams performed over a 25-year period, we simultaneously estimate all model parameters. We show that an age-dependent model reflects the Norwegian screening program by comparing empirical survival curves from observed registry data and data simulated from the proposed model. The model can be generalized to include more detailed individual-level covariates as well as new types of screening exams. By utilizing individual screening histories and covariate data, the proposed model shows potential for improving strategies for cancer screening programs by personalizing recommended screening intervals.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Statistical learning for predicting density–matrix-based electron dynamics

In this study, we consider the problem of learning density-dependent molecular Hamiltonian matrices from time series of electron density matrices, all in the context of Hartree–Fock theory. Prior work developed a solution to this problem for small molecular systems with density and Hamiltonian matrices of size at most 6 × 6. Here, using a battery of techniques, we scale prior methods to larger molecular systems with, for example, 29 × 29 matrices. This includes systems that either have more electrons or are expressed in large basis sets such as 6-311++G**. Scaling the method to larger systems enhances its relevance for realistic applications in chemistry and physics. To achieve this scaling, we apply dimensionality reduction, ridge regression and analytic computation of Hessians. Through the combination of these techniques, we are able to learn Hamiltonians by minimizing an objective function that encodes local propagation error. Importantly, these learned Hamiltonians can then be used to predict electron dynamics for thousands of steps: When we use our learned Hamiltonians to numerically solve the time-dependent Hartree–Fock equation, we obtain predicted dynamics that are in close quantitative agreement with ground truth dynamics. This includes field-off trajectories similar to the training data and field-on trajectories outside of the training data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Corrected Score Function Framework for Modelling Circadian Gene Expression

Many biological processes display oscillatory behaviour based on an approximately 24 h internal timing system specific to each individual. One process of particular interest is gene expression, for which several circadian transcriptomic studies have identified associations between gene expression during a 24 h period and an individual's health. A challenge with analysing data from these studies is that each individual's internal timing system is offset relative to the 24 h day-night cycle, where day–night cycle time is recorded for each collected sample. Laboratory procedures can accurately determine each individual's offset and determine the internal time of sample collection. However, these laboratory procedures are labour-intensive and expensive. Here, in this paper, we propose a corrected score function framework to obtain a regression model of gene expression given internal time when the offset of each individual is too burdensome to determine. A feature of this framework is that it does not require the probability distribution generating offsets to be symmetric with a mean of zero. Simulation studies validate the use of this corrected score function framework for cosinor regression, which is prevalent in circadian transcriptomic studies. Illustrations with data from three circadian transcriptomic studies further demonstrate that the proposed framework consistently mitigates bias relative to using a score function that does not account for this offset.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Relativistic coupled‐cluster and equation‐of‐motion coupled‐cluster methods

Abstract The development of relativistic coupled‐cluster (CC) and equation‐of‐motion coupled‐cluster (EOM‐CC) methods is reviewed. An emphasis is placed on recent efforts to improve the computational efficiency of CC and EOM‐CC calculations with non‐perturbative treatments of spin‐orbit coupling (SO‐CC and EOM‐CC) by partially recovering spin symmetry in the formulations. Example calculations of electronic ground state as well as valence‐excited and core‐excited states for molecules containing heavy elements are presented to demonstrate the applicability and usefulness of the SO‐CC and EOM‐CC methods. Future directions for the development of the SO‐CC and EOM‐CC methods are also discussed. This article is categorized under: Electronic Structure Theory > Ab Initio Electronic Structure Methods

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗