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At least 199 records · Page 11

Burden Versus Capability Statistical Analysis for Structural Probabilistic Risk Assessments

The purpose of the burden versus capability analysis is to analyze the ability of components to withstand the loads that they are subjected to. When designing a launch vehicle, there is always a trade-off for the strength of the components versus the weight of the vehicle. The vehicle needs to have some margin built in to the design, but this added margin should not add a significant amount of weight to the vehicle. When the material properties and limits are known, estimated loads can be used to ensure that the vehicle will survive launch loads. If the variation in the distributions can be quantified, the probability of failure can be estimated more accurately.

Green, Becky↗

Phytoplankton in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas: Distributions, Dynamics and Environmental Forcing

Time-series of remotely sensed distributions of phytoplankton, sea ice, surface temperature, albedo, and clouds were examined to evaluate the impact of the variability of environmental conditions and physical forcing on the phytoplankton distribution in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. Large-scale distributions of these parameters were studied for the first time using weekly and monthly composites from April 1998 through September 2002. The basic data set used in this study are phytoplankton pigment concentration derived from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), ice concentration obtained from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and surface temperature, cloud cover, and albedo derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). Seasonal variations of the sea ice cover was observed to be the dominant environmental factor as the ice edge blooms followed the retreating marginal ice zones northward. Blooms were most prominent in the southwestern Chukchi Sea, and were especially persistent immediately north of the Bering Strait in nutrient- rich Anadyr water and in some fronts. Chlorophyll concentrations are shown to increase from a nominal value during onset of melt in April to a maximum value in mid-spring or summer depending on location. Large interannual variability of ice cover and phytoplankton distributions was observed with the year 1998 being uniquely associated with an early season occurrence of a massive bloom. This is postulated to be caused in part by a rapid response of phytoplankton to an early retreat of the sea ice cover in the Beaufort Sea region. Correlation analyses showed relatively high negative correlation between chlorophyll and ice concentration with the correlation being highest in May, the correlation coefficient being -0.45. 1998 was also the warmest among the five years globally and the sea ice cover was least extensive in the Beaufort-Khukchi Sea region, partly because of the 1997-98 El Nino. Strong correlations were noted between ice extent and surface temperature, the correlation coefficient being highest at - 0.79 in April, during the onset of the bloom period

Wang, Jian↗

Vibration detection of component health and operability

In order to prevent catastrophic failure and eliminate unnecessary periodic maintenance in the shuttle orbiter program environmental control system components, some means of detecting incipient failure in these components is required. The utilization was investigated of vibrational/acoustic phenomena as one of the principal physical parameters on which to base the design of this instrumentation. Baseline vibration/acoustic data was collected from three aircraft type fans and two aircraft type pumps over a frequency range from a few hertz to greater than 3000 kHz. The baseline data included spectrum analysis of the baseband vibration signal, spectrum analysis of the detected high frequency bandpass acoustic signal, and amplitude distribution of the high frequency bandpass acoustic signal. A total of eight bearing defects and two unbalancings was introduced into the five test items. All defects were detected by at least one of a set of vibration/acoustic parameters with a margin of at least 2:1 over the worst case baseline. The design of a portable instrument using this set of vibration/acoustic parameters for detecting incipient failures in environmental control system components is described.

Baird, B. C.↗

Photovoltaics as a terrestrial energy source. Volume 2: System value

Assumptions and techniques employed by the electric utility industry and other electricity planners to make estimates of the future value of photovoltaic (PV) systems interconnected with U.S. electric utilities were examined. Existing estimates of PV value and their interpretation and limitations are discussed. PV value is defined as the marginal private savings accruing to potential PV owners. For utility-owned PV systems, these values are shown to be the after-tax savings in conventional fuel and capacity displaced by the PV output. For non-utility-owned (distributed) systems, the utility's savings in fuel and capacity must first be translated through the electric rate structure (prices) to the potential PV system owner. Base-case estimates of the average value of PV systems to U.S. utilities are presented. The relationship of these results to the PV Program price goals and current energy policy is discussed; the usefulness of PV output quantity goals is also reviewed.

Smith, J. L.↗

Properties of earthquakes generated by fault dynamics

A model for fault dynamics consisting of a uniform chain of blocks and springs pulled slowly across a rough surface is presented. The only nonlinear element of the model is a slip-stick friction force between the blocks and the surface. It is found that this model gives rise to events of all sizes. The numerical evaluation of the distribution of earthquake magnitudes results in a power-law spectrum similar to what is observed in nature. Like certain other dissipative dynamical systems, the observed large fluctuations in earthquake magnitude persist because the system is in a state of marginal stability.

Carlson, J. M.↗

Recent deformation rates on Venus

Constraints on the recent geological evolution of Venus may be provided by quantitative estimates of the rates of the principal resurfacing processes, volcanism and tectonism. This paper focuses on the latter, using impact craters as strain indicators. The total postimpact tectonic strain lies in the range 0.5-6.5%, which defines a recent mean strain rate of 10(exp -18)-10(exp -17)/s when divided by the mean surface age. Interpretation of the cratering record as one of pure production requires a decline in resurfacing rates at about 500 Ma (catastrophic resurfacing model). If distributed tectonic resurfacing contributed strongly before that time, as suggested by the widespread occurrence of tessera as inliers, the mean global strain rate must have been at least approximately 10(exp -15)/s, which is also typical of terrestrial active margins. Numerical calculations of the response of the lithosphere to inferred mantle convective forces were performed to test the hypothesis that a decrease in surface strain rate by at least two orders of magnitude could be caused by a steady decline in heat flow over the last billion years. Parameterized convection models predict that the mean global thermal gradient decreases by only about 5 K/km over this time; even with the exponential dependence of viscosity upon temperature, the surface strain rate drops by little more than one order of magnitude. Strongly unsteady cooling and very low thermal gradients today are necessary to satisfy the catastrophic model. An alternative, uniformitarian resurfacing hypothesis holds that Venus is resurfaced in quasi-random 'patches' several hundred kilometers in size that occur in response to changing mantle convection patterns.

Grimm, Robert E.↗

A source-sink model of the generation of plate tectonics from non-Newtonian mantle flow

A model of mantle convection which generates plate tectonics requires strain rate- or stress-dependent rheology in order to produce strong platelike flows with weak margins as well as strike-slip deformation and plate spin (i.e., toroidal motion). Here, we employ a simple model of source-sink driven surface flow to determine the form of such a rheology that is appropriate for Earth's present-day plate motions. In this model, lithospheric motion is treated as shallow layer flow driven by sources and sinks which correspond to spreading centers and subduction zones, respectively. Two plate motion models are used to derive the source sink field. As originally implied in the simpler Cartesian version of this model, the classical power law rheologies do not generate platelike flows as well as the hypothetical Whitehead-Gans stick-slip rheology (which incorporates a simple self-lubrication mechanism). None of the fluid rheologies examined, however, produce more than approximately 60% of the original maximum shear. For either plate model, the viscosity fields produced by the power law rheologies are diffuse, and the viscosity lows over strike-slip shear zones or pseudo-margins are not as small as over the prescribed convergent-divergent margins. In contrast, the stick-slip rheology generates very platelike viscosity fields, with sharp gradients at the plate boundaries, and margins with almost uniformly low viscosity. Power law rheologies with high viscosity contrasts, however, lead to almost equally favorable comparisons, though these also yield the least platelike viscosity fields. This implies that the magnitude of toroidal flow and platelike strength distributions are not necessarily related and thus may present independent constraints on the determination of a self-consistent plate-mantle rheology.

Bercovici, David↗

Design Considerations for a New Terminal Area Arrival Scheduler

Design of a terminal area arrival scheduler depends on the interrelationship between throughput, delay and controller intervention. The main contribution of this paper is an analysis of the above interdependence for several stochastic behaviors of expected system performance distributions in the aircraft s time of arrival at the meter fix and runway. Results of this analysis serve to guide the scheduler design choices for key control variables. Two types of variables are analyzed, separation buffers and terminal delay margins. The choice for these decision variables was tested using sensitivity analysis. Analysis suggests that it is best to set the separation buffer at the meter fix to its minimum and adjust the runway buffer to attain the desired system performance. Delay margin was found to have the least effect. These results help characterize the variables most influential in the scheduling operations of terminal area arrivals.

Thipphavong, Jane↗

Far infrared observations of crab-like supernova remnants

Using the Infrared Astronomy Satellite (IRAS) data, an investigation was begun of the far infrared properties of Crab-like supernova remnants and other synchrotron nebulae. Both the co-added scanning data and, where available, pointed observations were examined. To date infrared emission was found from two Crab-like remnants: G24.7+0.6 in which the infrared source near the center of the object was shown to be a compact HII region with EM greater than or approximately 10 to the 7th pc/cm(6); and G0.9+0.1 where a marginal detection of a 25 micron source coincident with the remnant core was used to set limits on the energetics of this synchrotron nebula. Further work, in progress under a second year of this program, should yield additional information concerning the distribution of initial pulsar spin periods and the evolution of synchrotron nebulae.

Helfand, David J.↗

Numerical flux formulas for the Euler and Navier-Stokes equations. 2: Progress in flux-vector splitting

The accuracy of various numerical flux functions for the inviscid fluxes when used for Navier-Stokes computations is studied. The flux functions are benchmarked for solutions of the viscous, hypersonic flow past a 10 degree cone at zero angle of attack using first order, upwind spatial differencing. The Harten-Lax/Roe flux is found to give a good boundary layer representation, although its robustness is an issue. Some hybrid flux formulas, where the concepts of flux-vector and flux-difference splitting are combined, are shown to give unsatisfactory pressure distributions; there is still room for improvement. Investigations of low diffusion, pure flux-vector splittings indicate that a pure flux-vector splitting can be developed that eliminates spurious diffusion across the boundary layer. The resulting first-order scheme is marginally stable and not monotone.

Coirier, William J.↗

Numerical flux formulas for the Euler and Navier-Stokes equations. II - Progress in flux-vector splitting

The accuracy of various numerical flux functions for the inviscid fluxes when used for Navier-Stokes computations is studied. The flux functions are benchmarked for solutions of the viscous, hypersonic flow past a 10 degree cone at zero angle of attack using first order, upwind spatial differencing. The Harten-Lax/Roe flux is found to give a good boundary layer representation, although its robustness is an issue. Some hybrid flux formulas, where the concepts of flux-vector and flux-difference splitting are combined, are shown to give unsatisfactory pressure distributions; there is still room for improvement. Investigations of low diffusion, pure flux-vector splittings indicate that a pure flux-vector splitting can be developed that eliminates spurious diffusion across the boundary layer. The resulting first-order scheme is marginally stable and not monotone.

Coirier, William J.↗

OGLE-2018-BLG-1185b: A Low-mass Microlensing Planet Orbiting a Low-mass Dwarf

We report an analysis of the planetary microlensing event OGLE-2018-BLG-1185, which was observed by a large number of ground-based telescopes and by the Spitzer Space Telescope. The ground-based light curve indicates a low planet–host star mass ratio ofq=(6.9±0.2)×10−5, which is near the peak of the wide-orbit exoplanet mass-ratio distribution. We estimate the host star and planet masses with a Bayesian analysis using the measured angular Einstein radius under the assumption that stars of all masses have an equal probability of hosting the planet. The flux variation observed by Spitzer is marginal, but still places a constraint on the microlens parallax. Imposing a conservative constraint that this flux variation should beΔfSpz<4 instrumental flux units yields a host mass of=-+MM0.37 host 0.210.35 and a planet mass of =-+ÅmM8.4p4.77.9. A Bayesian analysis including the full parallax constraint from Spitzer suggests smaller host star and planet masses of =-+MM0.091 host 0.0180.064 and =-+ÅmM2.1p0.41.5, respectively. Future high-resolution imaging observations with the Hubble Space Telescope or Extremely Large Telescope could distinguish between these two scenarios and help reveal the planetary system properties in more detail.

Gravitational microlensing↗

Relations between extensional tectonics and magmatism within the Southern Oklahoma aulacogen

Variations in the geometry, distribution and thickness of Cambrian igneous and sedimentary units within southwest Oklahoma are related to a late Proterozoic - early Paleozoic rifting event which formed the Southern Oklahoma aulacogen. These rock units are exposed in the Wichita Mountains, southwest Olkahoma, located on the northern margin of a Proterozoic basin, identified in the subsurface by COCORP reflection data. Overprinting of the Cambrian extensional event by Pennyslvanian tectonism obsured the influence of pre-existing basement structures and contrasting basement lithologies upon the initial development of the aulacogen.

Mcconnell, D. A.↗

The dust coma of Comet Austin (1989c1)

Thermal-infrared (10 and 20 micron) images of Comet Austin were obtained on UT 30.6 Apr., 1.8, 2.8, and 3.6 May 1990. The NASA-Marshall Space Flight Center 20 pixel bolometer array at the NASA 3 meter Infrared Telescope Facility in Hawaii was used. The 10.8 micron (FWHM = 5.3 microns) maps were obtained with maximum dimensions of 113 arcsec (57,500 km) in RA and 45 arcsec (23,000 km) in declination, with a pixel size of 4.2 x 4.2 arcsec. A smaller, 45 x 18 arcsec, map was obtained in the 19.2 micron (FWHM = 5.2 microns) bandpass. At the time of these observations Comet Austin's heliocentric and geocentric distances were 0.7 and 0.5 AU respectively. The peak flux density (within the brightest pixel) was 23 + or - 2 Janskys for the first three dates and only marginally lower the last day; i.e., within the observational uncertainties no evidence was found for day-to-day variability like that observed in Comet Halley. A dynamical analysis of the morphology of the extended dust emission is used to constrain the size distribution and production rate of the dust particles. The results of this analysis are compared with similar studies carried out on comets P/Giacobini-Zinner, P/Brorsen-Metcalf, P/Halley, P/Tempel 2, and Wilson (1987).

Campins, Humberto↗

The adverse aerodynamic impact of very small leading-edge ice (roughness) buildups on wings and tails

Systematic experimental studies were performed to establish the aerodynamic impact of very small leading-edge simulated ice (roughness) formations on lifting surfaces. The geometries studied include single element configurations (airfoil and 3-D tail) as well as multi-element high-lift airfoil geometries. Emphasis in these studies was placed on obtaining results at high Reynolds numbers to insure the applicability of the findings to full-scale situations. It was found that the well-known Brumby correlation for the adverse lift impact of discrete roughness elements at the leading edge is not appropriate for cases representative of initial ice build up (i.e., distributed roughness). It was also found that allowing initial ice formations of a size required for removal by presently proposed deicing systems could lead to maximum lift losses of approximately 40 percent for single-element airfoils. Losses in angle-of-attack margin to stall are equally substantial - as high as 6 degrees. Percentage losses for multi-element airfoils are not as severe as for single-element configurations, but degradations of the angle-of-attack-to-stall margin are the same for both.

Lynch, Frank T.↗

Solid Modeling of Crew Exploration Vehicle Structure Concepts for Mass Optimization

Parametric solid and surface models of the crew exploration vehicle (CEV) command module (CM) structure concepts are developed for rapid finite element analyses, structural sizing and estimation of optimal structural mass. The effects of the structural configuration and critical design parameters on the stress distribution are visualized, examined to arrive at an efficient design. The CM structural components consisted of the outer heat shield, inner pressurized crew cabin, ring bulkhead and spars. For this study only the internal cabin pressure load case is considered. Component stress, deflection, margins of safety and mass are used as design goodness criteria. The design scenario is explored by changing the component thickness parameters and materials until an acceptable design is achieved. Aluminum alloy, titanium alloy and an advanced composite material properties are considered for the stress analysis and the results are compared as a part of lessons learned and to build up a structural component sizing knowledge base for the future CEV technology support. This independent structural analysis and the design scenario based optimization process may also facilitate better CM structural definition and rapid prototyping.

Mukhopadhyay, Vivek↗

A statistical model for telecommunication link design

An evaluation is conducted of the current telecommunication link design technique and a description is presented of an alternative method, called the probability distribution method (PDM), which is free of the disadvantages of the current technique while retaining its advantages. The PDM preserves the simplicity of the design control table (DCT) format. The use of the DCT as a management design control tool is continued. The telecommunication link margin probability density function used presents the probability of achieving any particular value of link performance. It is, therefore, possible to assess the performance risk and other tradeoffs.

Yuen, J. H.↗

Detection of a weak gamma-ray burst from the direction of Ursa Major

An 80-second gamma-ray burst was detected over the energy range 42-205 keV by a balloon-borne gamma-ray telescope at 23:00:22 UT on May 11, 1988. Assuming a uniformly distributed source model, a 30 keV energy threshold, and a 3 delta detection threshold, it is estimated that the burst rate is 39,000 + 90,000 - 32,000/yr. It is found that the emission originated from the direction of Ursa Major. The event displays a marginal periodicity with a fundamental period 2.17 + or - 0.12 s.

Owens, Alan↗