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At least 199 records · Page 11

Low-energy Electron-track Imaging for a Liquid Argon Time-projection-chamber Telescope Concept Using Probabilistic Deep Learning

The GammaTPC is an MeV-scale single-phase liquid argon time-projection-chamber gamma-ray telescope concept with a novel dual-scale pixel-based charge-readout system. It promises to enable a significant improvement in sensitivity to MeV-scale gamma rays over previous telescopes. The novel pixel-based charge readout allows for imaging of the tracks of electrons scattered by Compton interactions of incident gamma rays. The two primary contributors to the accuracy of a Compton telescope in reconstructing an incident gamma-ray’s original direction are its energy and position resolution. In this work, we focus on using deep learning to optimize the reconstruction of the initial position and direction of electrons scattered in Compton interactions, including using probabilistic models to estimate predictive uncertainty. We show that the deep-learning models are able to predict locations of Compton scatters of MeV-scale gamma rays from simulated 500 μm pixel-based data to better than 1 mm rms error and are sensitive to the initial direction of the scattered electron. We compare and contrast different deep-learning uncertainty estimation algorithms for reconstruction applications. Additionally, we show that event-by-event estimates of the uncertainty of the locations of the Compton scatters can be used to select those events that were reconstructed most accurately, leading to improvement in locating the origin of gamma-ray sources on the sky.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Datasets for characterizing extreme events relevant to hydrologic design over the conterminous United States

Despite the close linkage between extreme floods and snowmelt, particularly through rain-on-snow (ROS), hydrologic infrastructure is mostly designed based on standard precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves (PREC-IDF) that neglect snow processes in runoff generation. For snow-dominated regions, such simplification could result in substantial errors in estimating extreme events and infrastructure design risk. To address this long-standing problem, we applied the Next Generation IDF (NG-IDF) technique to estimate design basis extreme events for different durations and return periods in the conterminous United States (CONUS) to distinctly represent the contribution of rain, snowmelt, and ROS events to the amount of water reaching the land surface. A suite of datasets were developed to characterize the magnitude, trend, seasonality, and dominant mechanism of extreme events for over 200,000 locations. Infrastructure design risk associated with the use of PREC-IDF was estimated. Accuracy of the model simulations used in the analyses was confirmed by long-term snow data at over 200 Snowpack Telemetry stations. The presented spatially continuous datasets are readily usable and instrumental for supporting site-specific infrastructure design.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mesoscale evaluation of AMPS using AWARE radar observations of a wind and precipitation event over the Ross Island region of Antarctica

Surface, upper-air, and radar observations are used to assess the performance of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) in simulating the mesoscale aspects of a wind and precipitation event over the Ross Island region of Antarctica that spanned January 16–20, 2016. The observations, collected during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE), provide a unique dataset for evaluating AMPS, especially the radar observations that facilitate a three-dimensional depiction of winds and precipitation. Comparisons of AMPS forecast data with surface meteorology, balloon-sounding, and profiling radar observations at and above sites near McMurdo Station reveal a mixture of similarities and differences. A generally southerly flow is evident at low levels in both the AMPS simulations and observed Doppler radial velocities. AMPS winds are comparable to those observed at the surface and aloft in terms of magnitude, direction, and timing but the strongest simulated southerly flow is displaced eastward relative to the observations. AMPS-simulated reflectivity over the broader Ross Island region is more limited in areal extent and smaller in magnitude than observed by a scanning Doppler radar. Three episodes of surface precipitation are observed near McMurdo Station over the five-day event with peak rates of ~3 mm h -1 and a total accumulation of ~22 mm. However, AMPS produces no surface precipitation at that location over the five-day event due to a low-level dry bias in the forecasts. Herein, the results show the first observationally based three-dimensional understanding of meteorology in the Ross Island region.

AMPS↗

Improved Angular Uncertainty Estimation for Compton Imagers

Compton imaging is a method for localizing a photon source using Compton scatter events as measured by a position sensitive photon detector. Using the measured interaction positions and energy depositions for a Compton event, a cone can be back projected which represents all possible origin locations for that source photon. Given enough Compton events, the source can be localized via identifying the regions where many of these cones intersect. An illustration of this effect is given in the figure below. The region intersected by the three cones in this case is a likely origin point for the photon source.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Trends and meteorological drivers of extreme daily reservoir evaporation events in the western United States

Extreme daily evaporation from reservoir surfaces can lead to significant short-term water losses, affecting water quality, water supply, and reservoir operation strategies. Historical trends in daily reservoir evaporation events have eluded the scientific and operational communities, largely due to a lack of long-term, consistent data record. This study quantifies trends in extreme daily reservoir evaporation events at 165 major reservoirs located in the western U.S. Here, we use the place-based energy balance and aerodynamic Daily Lake Evaporation Model (DLEM) driven by multiple meteorological data products (RTMA, gridMET, Daymet) to estimate daily evaporation rates at these reservoirs from 1981 to 2022. The results—while are based on different meteorological forcing datasets—consistently indicate that the California, Lower Colorado, and Rio Grande hydrologic regions are more prone to higher daily evaporation extremes. Compared to the rest of western U.S, these three regions also experience a more pronounced increasing trend in the annual maximum daily evaporation rate, at about 0.3 mm day -1 decade -1 during 1981-2022. The results show that heat and dryness are the main drivers to the increasing trend of extreme evaporation, while extreme wind speed is the primary contributor to exceptionally high daily evaporation events across all regions. This phenomenon is particularly prominent in the arid Lower Colorado region, but less significant in the cold and humid Pacific Northwest region. We also find that the correlation between extreme wind speed and extreme evaporation degrades as the time scale increases from daily, to monthly and seasonal. Our findings have strong implications for the pattern and distribution of extreme evaporation events at the western U.S. reservoirs, and illustrate how various drivers influence extreme evaporation across different time scales.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Optimizing invader suppression to restore native species: Leveraging species traits to overcome collateral damage

Strategies to control ongoing biological invasions are often developed by modelling the invasive species' population and aiming to reduce its abundance. However, if the ultimate objective is to protect and restore native species, focussing solely on the invader may not be optimal because it does not account for (i) species interactions that can cause the invader's impacts to depend nonlinearly on its abundance, (ii) collateral damages to native species incurred due to nonspecific removal methods or (iii) native-invader trait differences. Here, to identify an invader suppression strategy that maximizes average native population size, we applied optimal control theory to a two-species model of a native species threatened by an invasive competitor. We examined trade-offs between iterative physical removals that selectively target invaders and intensifiable chemical control that is nonselective but has higher efficacy. We found that while iterative removals were capable of supporting large native populations when applied continuously, cost could be prohibitively high. In contrast, when favourable native-invader trait differences enabled native species to re-establish more quickly than invaders, intensifiable methods could achieve substantial restoration benefits at lower cost by focussing removal effort into periodic, high-efficacy events. In a metapopulation, removals that rotated among spatial patches were optimal when the native species had higher dispersal, whereas synchronous removals were preferred when native recovery was initiated locally and the invader could disperse. For a case study in Hawaiian streams, we compared how effective two alternative methods of removing invasive live-bearing fishes (poeciliids) might be at restoring the endemic freshwater goby Sicyopterus stimpsoni. We found that rotenone (a piscicidal chemical) offered superior benefits when the control budget was small and efficacy was high, but that electrofishing (use of electricity to manually collect target fish) was better with larger budgets and in many lower-efficacy scenarios. Synthesis and applications. Our findings demonstrate that, by accounting for species interactions and collateral damage, invasive species control strategies can be optimized in light of species traits. Choices about the timing, locations and types of removal events present opportunities to increase the efficiency with which invasive species suppression benefits native species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vertical distribution of boundary layer new particle formation and implications for nanoparticle growth mechanisms (Final Report)

New particles can form high above ground in the atmosphere before such formation events are observed by ground-based instruments. Once formed, these particles can take up significant amounts of water vapor, which has implications on the mechanisms by which nanoparticles grow and, ultimately, impact cloud formation processes. These observations motivated the research performed in this project using a combination of modeling, laboratory experiments, and the analysis of field observations. We hypothesized is that ground-based measurements do not always accurately represent the location and timing of new particle formation events, nor do they adequately characterize the dominant physical and chemical processes that are responsible for the subsequent growth of newly formed particles. Essentially, we wanted to study the new particle formation process under conditions that we expect may be more relevant to the actual location in the atmosphere where such events take place, which are often characterized by higher relative humidities, lower temperatures, and a broader range of precursors and oxidants compared to those observed at ground level. This project had two main objectives, each of which directly addressed our hypothesis. Our first is to investigate the timing, distribution, meteorological conditions, and nanoparticle properties associated with boundary layer new particle formation through the analysis of ARM field campaigns such as HI-SCALE and long-term observations and observations performed in other locales such as in China and India where atmospheric conditions could play a crucial role in determining the mechanisms of new particle formation. This activity provided a comprehensive description, both in time and in space, of the gases and nanoparticle properties that are responsible for these events. We also performed modeling studies to explore the vertical profile and timing of new particle formation events from these campaigns. Our second objective was to perform laboratory and process-level modeling studies to investigate the role that conditions such as low ambient temperature, high relative humidity, and different oxidants such as nitrate radical play in determining unique chemical pathways for nanoparticle growth. In doing so, we revisited the representation of nanoparticle growth in global models and updated assumptions of formation and growth based on the findings of the field, laboratory, and process-level-model work. Our research provides crucial insights into the most important regions of the atmospheric boundary layer for future observational and modeling studies. It also identifies the most relevant environmental conditions, precursors, and oxidants that are responsible for nanoparticle growth, which will aid in the design of laboratory studies and process-level model experiments. The unique pathways that we discovered can be incorporated into regional and global models, thereby improving predictions and attribution of the role of new particle formation in, e.g., air pollution formation and cloud properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Discovery of photosynthesis genes through whole-genome sequencing of acetate-requiring mutants of Chlamydomonas reinhardtii

Large-scale mutant libraries have been indispensable for genetic studies, and the development of next-generation genome sequencing technologies has greatly advanced efforts to analyze mutants. In this work, we sequenced the genomes of 660 Chlamydomonas reinhardtii acetate-requiring mutants, part of a larger photosynthesis mutant collection previously generated by insertional mutagenesis with a linearized plasmid. We identified 554 insertion events from 509 mutants by mapping the plasmid insertion sites through paired-end sequences, in which one end aligned to the plasmid and the other to a chromosomal location. Nearly all (96%) of the events were associated with deletions, duplications, or more complex rearrangements of genomic DNA at the sites of plasmid insertion, and together with deletions that were unassociated with a plasmid insertion, 1470 genes were identified to be affected. Functional annotations of these genes were enriched in those related to photosynthesis, signaling, and tetrapyrrole synthesis as would be expected from a library enriched for photosynthesis mutants. Systematic manual analysis of the disrupted genes for each mutant generated a list of 253 higher-confidence candidate photosynthesis genes, and we experimentally validated two genes that are essential for photoautotrophic growth, CrLPA3 and CrPSBP4 . The inventory of candidate genes includes 53 genes from a phylogenomically defined set of conserved genes in green algae and plants. Altogether, 70 candidate genes encode proteins with previously characterized functions in photosynthesis in Chlamydomonas , land plants, and/or cyanobacteria; 14 genes encode proteins previously shown to have functions unrelated to photosynthesis. Among the remaining 169 uncharacterized genes, 38 genes encode proteins without any functional annotation, signifying that our results connect a function related to photosynthesis to these previously unknown proteins. This mutant library, with genome sequences that reveal the molecular extent of the chromosomal lesions and resulting higher-confidence candidate genes, will aid in advancing gene discovery and protein functional analysis in photosynthesis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Sterile neutrinos and the global reactor antineutrino dataset

We present results from global fits to the available reactor antineutrino dataset, as of Fall 2019, to determine the global preference for a fourth, sterile neutrino. We have separately considered experiments that measure the integrated inverse-beta decay (IBD) rate from those that measure the energy spectrum of IBD events at one or more locations. The evidence that we infer from rate measurements varies between ≲ 3σ and negligible depending on the reactor antineutrino flux model employed. Moreover, we find that spectral ratios ostensibly imply ≳ 3σ evidence, consistent with previous work, though these measurements are known to be plagued by issues related to statistical interpretation; these results should therefore be viewed cautiously. The software used is the newly developed GLoBESfit tool set which is based on the publicly available GLoBES framework and will be released as open-source software.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Parameter estimation with maximal updated densities

A recently developed measure-theoretic framework solves a stochastic inverse problem (SIP) for models where uncertainties in model output data are predominantly due to aleatoric (i.e., irreducible) uncertainties in model inputs (i.e., parameters). The subsequent inferential target is a distribution on parameters. Another type of inverse problem is to quantify uncertainties in estimates of “true” parameter values under the assumption that such uncertainties should be reduced as more data are incorporated into the problem, i.e., the uncertainty is considered epistemic. A major contribution of this work is the formulation and solution of such a parameter identification problem (PIP) within the measure-theoretic framework developed for the SIP. The approach is novel in that it utilizes a solution to a stochastic forward problem (SFP) to update an initial density only in the parameter directions informed by the model output data. In other words, this method performs “selective regularization” only in the parameter directions not informed by data. Further, the solution is defined by a maximal updated density (MUD) point where the updated density defines the measure-theoretic solution to the PIP. Another significant contribution of this work is the full theory of existence and uniqueness of MUD points for linear maps with Gaussian distributions. Data-constructed Quantity of Interest (QoI) maps are also presented and analyzed for solving the PIP within this measure-theoretic framework as a means of reducing uncertainties in the MUD estimate. We conclude with a demonstration of the general applicability of the method on two problems involving either spatial or temporal data for estimating uncertain model parameters. The first problem utilizes spatial data from a stationary partial differential equation to produce a MUD estimate of an uncertain boundary condition. The second problem utilizes temporal data obtained from the state-of-the-art ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model to obtain a MUD estimate of uncertain wind drag coefficients for a simulated extreme weather event near the Shinnecock Inlet located in the Outer Barrier of Long Island, NY, USA.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Storylines for the 1997 New Year’s Flood: The role of watershed antecedent conditions and future warming in shaping discharge in the Truckee River watershed

The 1997 New Year’s flood was among the most devastating floods in the Truckee River watershed located in western Nevada. This event resulted from complex interactions of flood drivers, such as extreme precipitation, wet antecedent watershed conditions, warm temperatures and rapid snowmelt. We leveraged simulated forcings from the regionally refined mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM-E3SM) and a process-based hydrological model to recreate the 1997 New Year’s flood for the Truckee River watershed across four climate warming levels ranging from the current temperatures to + 4° C. For each scenario, we conducted ensemble simulations with the same forcing but with 100 different seasonal watershed antecedent conditions, which were randomly sampled from long-term hydrological simulations. The results show that the 1997 New Year’s flood can be reproduced or exceeded consistently only when the antecedent watershed conditions are wet, specifically when streamflows are above the 75th percentile of the climatological value. There is negligible change in ensemble mean peakflows for Truckee River near Reno; however, there are increases of 18% and 14% under the warming levels of + 3° C and + 4° C, respectively. The increases in peakflows under future climate warming are attributed to wetter antecedent watershed conditions and enhanced snowmelt. Furthermore, the largest increases in peakflows occur at small, high-elevation headwater basins along the Sierra Nevada crest. This study highlights that changes in extreme flood events will result from the complex interplay of multiple flood drivers. It also demonstrates the potential of storyline approaches to analyze future realizations of these extreme events under different climate scenarios.

Climate change impact study↗

The polarization sensitivity of GRETINA

Compton polarimeters have played an important role in the study of nuclear structure physics, but have often been limited in their applications because of relatively low -ray detection efficiency. With the advent of -ray tracking detector arrays, which feature nearly solid angle coverage and the ability to identify the location of Compton-scattering events to within a few millimeters, this limitation can be overcome. Here we present a characterization of the performance of the Gamma Ray Energy Tracking In-beam Nuclear Array (GRETINA) as a Compton polarimeter using the 24 Mg(p,p') reaction at 2.45 MeV proton energy. We also discuss a new capability added to the simulation package UCGretina to simulate the emission of polarized photons, and compare it to the measured data. Lastly, we use these simulations to predict the performance of the Gamma Ray Energy Tracking Array (GRETA).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Tidal disruption events and dark matter scatterings with neutrinos and photons

Stars can be tidally disrupted when passing near a black hole, and the debris can induce a flux of high-energy neutrinos. It has been discussed that there are hints in IceCube data of high-energy neutrinos produced in Tidal Disruption Events. The emitting region of neutrinos and photons in these astrophysical events is likely to be located in the vicinity of the central black hole, where the dark matter density might be significantly larger than in the outer regions of the galaxy. We explore the potential attenuation of the emitted neutrino and photon fluxes due to interactions with dark matter particles around the supermassive black hole of the host galaxies of AT2019dsg, AT2019fdr and AT2019aalc, and study the implications for some well-motivated models of dark matter-neutrino and dark matter-photon interactions. Furthermore, we discuss the complementarity of our constraints with values of the dark matter-neutrino scattering cross section proven to alleviate some cosmological tensions.

Fujiwara, Motoko↗

Cubic-meter scale laboratory fault re-activation experiments to improve the understanding of induced seismicity risks

Abstract To understand fluid induced seismicity, we have designed a large-scale laboratory experiment consisting of a one-cubic-meter sandstone with an artificial fault cut and fluid-injection boreholes. The sandstone block is assembled in a true triaxial loading frame and equipped with 38 piezoelectric sensors to locate and characterise acoustic emission events. The differential stress on the artificial fault is increased in stages to bring it towards a critically stressed state. After each stage of differential stress increase, fluids are injected at low pressures through boreholes to test the potential of fault re-activation. In addition, a high-pressure injection was conducted that created a hydraulic fracture from the injection borehole towards the artificial fault. The newly generated fluid pathway resulted in an activation of the complete block through a stick–slip movement. We compare acoustic emission measurements from the laboratory experiment with seismicity observations from the field-scale CO 2 injection at Decatur, Illinois, U.S., and conclude that the existence of fluid pathways plays a decisive role for the potential of induced seismicity.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

A Comprehensive Model for Analyzing the Effects of Power Outages on Customers

Power outages can cause significant inconveniences to critical services and substantial economic losses. Therefore, it is crucial to systematically analyze the impact on customers during power outages caused by various factors, such as severe thunderstorms, floods, vegetation, or mechanical problems, and to plan for reliable operation and control under such events. Power outages in different locations may exhibit varying characteristics regarding customer impact. In this paper, we present a mathematical model that captures the essential characteristics of customer impact during power outages. The parameters of our model include impact duration, recovery duration, maximum impact level, increase curve parameter, and decrease curve parameter. We demonstrate how historical power outage data can be fitted to our model, enabling a systematic comparison of outages caused by different factors in various locations.

Lee, Sangkeun (Matt) [ORNL] (ORCID:000000021317511↗

Research Introduction [Slides]

In the topic of Reverse Time Imaging, we proposed a new IC to reduce computation cost but reserve image resolution for distributed sensor networks. For Induced Seismicity in Oklahoma, we analyzed fault stress state analysis at state scale, and we applied machine learning techniques to polarity picking and seismicity rate forecasting. The results provide better understanding of fault properties, stress field, and the relationships among fault, stress state, injections, and potential seismic hazards. Lastly, for Microseismic Monitoring, we detected and located 770 low-frequency events (5-50 Hz): (1) Shallow events are highly clustered, consistent with the pathway from injection well 13-10A to monitoring well; moment tensor inversion shows dominant tensile cracking; (2) Deep events are scattered and show migration pattern to the basement; moment tensors show that most events are shear cracks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Understanding the Vertical Transport and Removal of Aerosols during Deep Convective Events

Atmospheric aerosols affect the global energy budget by scattering and absorbing sunlight (direct effects) and by changing the microphysical structure, lifetime, and coverage of clouds (indirect effects). Globally, the free troposphere is a major source of nucleation- and Aitken-mode aerosols due to the enhanced new particle formation rates at high altitudes. Recent studies have shown deep convective systems are capable of transporting these small aerosols from the free troposphere to the boundary layer by strong convective downdrafts and weaker downward motions in the stratiform regions. These vertically transported aerosols can grow into cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and play a significant role in the global climate. During the deep convective processes, existing accumulation-mode aerosols that act as coagulation sinks of smaller particles are also removed by wet scavenging. Compared to the vertical transport of these particles by entrainment mixing, which is slower but more prevalent, the deep convective downdraft processes may be more rapid and efficient in the vertical transport of aerosols. However, most of the current climate models do not include this mechanism as a source of CCN, mainly because the frequency of deep convective events varies significantly with geographic location and thus their contributions to CCN are unpredictable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗