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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Melting curves of ice polymorphs in the vicinity of the liquid–liquid critical point

The possible existence of a liquid–liquid critical point in deeply supercooled water has been a subject of debate due to the challenges associated with providing definitive experimental evidence. The pioneering work by Mishima and Stanley [Nature 392, 164–168 (1998)] sought to shed light on this problem by studying the melting curves of different ice polymorphs and their metastable continuation in the vicinity of the expected liquid–liquid transition and its associated critical point. Based on the continuous or discontinuous changes in the slope of the melting curves, Mishima [Phys. Rev. Lett. 85, 334 (2000)] suggested that the liquid–liquid critical point lies between the melting curves of ice III and ice V. Herein we explore this conjecture using molecular dynamics simulations with a machine learning model based on ab initio quantum-mechanical calculations. We study the melting curves of ices III, IV, V, VI, and XIII and find that all of them are supercritical and do not intersect the liquid–liquid transition locus. We also find a pronounced, yet continuous, change in the slope of the melting lines upon crossing of the liquid locus of maximum compressibility. Finally, we analyze the literature in light of our findings and conclude that the scenario in which the melting curves are supercritical is favored by the most recent computational and experimental evidence. Although the preponderance of evidence is consistent with the existence of a second critical point in water, the behavior of ice polymorph melting lines does not provide strong evidence in support of this viewpoint, according to our calculations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fast and Flexible Inference Framework for Continuum Reverberation Mapping Using Simulation-based Inference with Deep Learning

Continuum reverberation mapping (CRM) of active galactic nuclei (AGN) monitors multiwavelength variability signatures to constrain accretion disk structure and supermassive black hole (SMBH) properties. The upcoming Vera Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time will survey tens of millions of AGN over the next decade, with thousands of AGN monitored with almost daily cadence in the deep drilling fields. However, existing CRM methodologies often require long computation time and are not designed to handle such large amounts of data. In this paper, we present a fast and flexible inference framework for CRM using simulation-based inference (SBI) with deep learning to estimate SMBH properties from AGN light curves. We use a long short-term memory summary network to reduce the high dimensionality of the light curve data and then use a neural density estimator to estimate the posterior of SMBH parameters. Using simulated light curves, we find SBI can produce more accurate SMBH parameter estimation with 10 3 –10 5 times speed up in inference efficiency compared to traditional methods. The SBI framework is particularly suitable for wide-field CRM surveys as the light curves will have identical observing patterns, which can be incorporated into the SBI simulation. We explore the performance of our SBI model on light curves with irregular-sampled, realistic observing cadence and alternative variability characteristics to demonstrate the flexibility and limitation of the SBI framework.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Three-dimensional super line-localization in low signal-to-noise microscope images via prior-apprised unsupervised learning (PAUL)

Biological processes such as processive enzyme turnover and intracellular cargo tracking involve the dynamic motion of a small "article" along a curvilinear biopolymer track. To understand these processes that occur across multiple length and time scales, one must acquire both the trajectory of the particle and the position of the track along which it moves, possibly by combining high-resolution single-particle tracking with conventional microscopy. Yet, usually there is a significant resolution mismatch between these modalities: while the tracked particle is localized with a precision of 10 nm, the image of the surroundings is limited by optical difraction, with 200 nm lateral and 500 nm axial resolutions. Compared to the particle's trajectory, the surrounding curvilinear structure appears as a blurred and noisy image. This disparity in the spatial resolutions of the particle trajectory and the surrounding curvilinear structure image makes data reconstruction, as well as interpretation, particularly challenging. Analysis is further complicated when the curvilinear structures are oriented arbitrarily in 3D space. Here, we present a prior-apprised unsupervised learning (PAUL) approach to extract information from 3D images where the underlying features resemble a curved line such as a filament or microtubule. This three-stage framework starts with a Hessian-based feature enhancement, which is followed by feature registration, where local line segments are detected on repetitively sampled subimage tiles. In the final stage, statistical learning, segments are clustered based on their geometric relationships. Principal curves are then approximated from each segment group via statistical tools including principal component analysis, bootstrap and kernel transformation. This procedure is characterized on simulated images, where sub-voxel medium deviations from true curves have been achieved. The 3D PAUL approach has also been implemented for successful line localization in experimental 3D images of gold nanowires obtained using a multifocal microscope. Lastly, this work not only bridges the resolution gap between two microscopy modalities, but also allows us to conduct 3D super line-localization imaging experiments, without using super-resolution techniques.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Different CT slice thickness and contrast‐enhancement phase in radiomics models on the differential performance of lung adenocarcinoma

Abstract Background To investigate the effects of computed tomography (CT) reconstruction slice thickness and contrast‐enhancement phase on the differential diagnosis performance of radiomic signature in lung adenocarcinoma. Methods A total of 187 patients who had been pathologically confirmed with lung adenocarcinoma and nonadenocarcinoma were divided into a training cohort ( n = 149) and validation cohort ( n = 38). All the patients underwent contrast‐enhanced CT and the images were reconstructed with different slice thickness. The radiomic features were extracted from different slice thickness and scan phase. The logistic regression (LR) algorithm was used to build a machine learning model for each group. The area under the curve (AUC) obtained from the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and DeLong test was used to evaluate its discriminating performance. Results Finally, 34 image features and five semantic features were selected to establish a radiomics model. Based on the three contrast‐enhanced CT phases and four reconstruction slice thickness, 12 groups of radiomics models showed good discrimination ability with the AUCs range from 0.9287 to 0.9631, sensitivity range from 0.8349 to 0.9083, specificity range from 0.825 to 0.925 in the training group. Similar results were observed in the validation group. However, there was no statistical significance between the different CT scan phase groups and different slice thickness ( p > 0.05). Conclusions The radiomic analysis of contrast‐enhanced CT can be used for the differential diagnosis of lung adenocarcinoma. Moreover, different slice thickness and contrast‐enhanced scan phase did not affect the discriminating ability in the radiomics models.

Wang, Yang↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantum adiabatic machine learning by zooming into a region of the energy surface

Recent work has shown that quantum annealing for machine learning, referred to as QAML, can perform comparably to state-of-the-art machine learning methods with a specific application to Higgs boson classification. Here, we propose QAML-Z, an algorithm that iteratively zooms in on a region of the energy surface by mapping the problem to a continuous space and sequentially applying quantum annealing to an augmented set of weak classifiers. Results on a programmable quantum annealer show that QAML-Z matches classical deep neural network performance at small training set sizes and reduces the performance margin between QAML and classical deep neural networks by almost 50% at large training set sizes, as measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The significant improvement of quantum annealing algorithms for machine learning and the use of a discrete quantum algorithm on a continuous optimization problem both opens a class of problems that can be solved by quantum annealers and suggests the approach in performance of near-term quantum machine learning towards classical benchmarks.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

AGNet: weighing black holes with deep learning

Supermassive black holes (SMBHs) are commonly found at the centres of most massive galaxies. Measuring SMBH mass is crucial for understanding the origin and evolution of SMBHs. Traditional approaches, on the other hand, necessitate the collection of spectroscopic data, which is costly. We present an algorithm that weighs SMBHs using quasar light time series information, including colours, multiband magnitudes, and the variability of the light curves, circumventing the need for expensive spectra. We train, validate, and test neural networks that directly learn from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Stripe 82 light curves for a sample of 38 939 spectroscopically confirmed quasars to map out the non-linear encoding between SMBH mass and multiband optical light curves. We find a 1σ scatter of 0.37 dex between the predicted SMBH mass and the fiducial virial mass estimate based on SDSS single-epoch spectra, which is comparable to the systematic uncertainty in the virial mass estimate. Our results have direct implications for more efficient applications with future observations from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory. Our code, AGNet, is publicly available at https://github.com/snehjp2/AGNet.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A surrogate-model-based approach for estimating the first and second-order moments of offshore wind power

Power curve, the functional relationship that governs the process of converting a set of weather variables experienced by a wind turbine into electric power, is widely used in the wind industry to estimate power output for planning and operational purposes. Existing methods for power curve estimation have three main limitations: (i) they mostly rely on wind speed as the sole input, thus ignoring the secondary, yet possibly significant effects of other environmental factors, (ii) they largely overlook the complex marine environment in which offshore turbines operate, potentially compromising their value in offshore wind energy applications, and (ii) they solely focus on the first-order properties of wind power, with little (or null) information about the variation around the mean behavior, which is important for ensuring reliable grid integration, asset health monitoring, and energy storage, among others. In light of that, this study investigates the impact of several wind-and wave-related factors on offshore wind power variability, with the ultimate goal of accurately predicting its first two moments. Further, our approach couples OpenFAST—a multi-physics wind turbine simulator—with Gaussian Process (GP) regression to reveal the underlying relationships governing offshore weather-to-power conversion. We first find that a multi-input power curve which captures the combined impact of wind speed, direction, and air density, can provide double-digit improvements, in terms of prediction accuracy, relative to univariate methods which rely on wind speed as the sole explanatory variable (e.g. the standard method of bins). Wave-related variables are found not important for predicting the average power output, but interestingly, appear to be extremely relevant in describing the fluctuation of the offshore power around its mean. Tested on real-world data collected at the New York/New Jersey bight, our proposed multi-input models demonstrate a high explanatory power in predicting the first two moments of offshore wind generation, testifying their potential value to the offshore wind industry.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Lockdown impacts on residential electricity demand in India: A data-driven and non-intrusive load monitoring study using Gaussian mixture models

This study evaluates the effect of complete nationwide lockdown in 2020 on residential electricity demand across 13 Indian cities and the role of digitalisation using a public smart meter dataset. We undertake a data-driven approach to explore the energy impacts of work-from-home norms across five dwelling typologies. Our methodology includes climate correction, dimensionality reduction and machine learning-based clustering using Gaussian Mixture Models of daily load curves. Results show that during the lockdown, maximum daily peak demand increased by 150-200% as compared to 2018 and 2019 levels for one room-units (RM1), one bedroom-units (BR1) and two bedroom-units (BR2) which are typical for low- and middle-income families. While the upper-middle- and higher-income dwelling units (i.e., three (3BR) and more-than-three bedroom-units (M3BR)) saw night-time demand rise by almost 44% in 2020, as compared to 2018 and 2019 levels. Our results also showed that new peak demand emerged for the lockdown period for RM1, BR1 and BR2 dwelling typologies. We found that the lack of supporting socioeconomic and climatic data can restrict a comprehensive analysis of demand shocks using similar public datasets, which informed policy implications for India's digitalisation. We further emphasised improving the data quality and reliability for effective data-centric policymaking.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

ForceFinder

SAND2025-11750O ForceFinder extends the Structural Dynamics Python Libraries (SDynPy) with comprehensive tools for inverse source estimation (ISE) tasks via frequency response function (FRF) matrix inversion. The software is designed for transfer path analysis and multiple-input/multiple-output (MIMO) vibration control problems. It allows users to estimate sources through various algorithms, from the basic Moore-Penrose pseudo-inverse to statistical learning methods such as Tikhonov regularization via an L-curve and elastic net regularization via an information criterion. ForceFinder uses an object-oriented framework, where all components of the ISE problem—such as FRFs, responses, and transformations—are stored in a "SourcePathReceiver" object. This software can be applied to any noise and vibration problem. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Carter, Steven [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Liv↗
NASA NTRS2015

Enhancements of Bayesian Blocks; Application to Large Light Curve Databases

Bayesian Blocks are optimal piecewise linear representations (step function fits) of light-curves. The simple algorithm implementing this idea, using dynamic programming, has been extended to include more data modes and fitness metrics, multivariate analysis, and data on the circle (Studies in Astronomical Time Series Analysis. VI. Bayesian Block Representations, Scargle, Norris, Jackson and Chiang 2013, ApJ, 764, 167), as well as new results on background subtraction and refinement of the procedure for precise timing of transient events in sparse data. Example demonstrations will include exploratory analysis of the Kepler light curve archive in a search for "star-tickling" signals from extraterrestrial civilizations. (The Cepheid Galactic Internet, Learned, Kudritzki, Pakvasa1, and Zee, 2008, arXiv: 0809.0339; Walkowicz et al., in progress).

Kepler light curve archive↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Artificial Intelligence-Assisted Method for Dementia Detection Using Images from the Clock Drawing Test

Background: Widespread dementia detection could increase clinical trial candidates and enable appropriate interventions. Since the Clock Drawing Test (CDT) can be potentially used for diagnosing dementia-related disorders, it can be leveraged to develop a computer-aided screening tool. Objective: To evaluate if a machine learning model that uses images from the CDT can predict mild cognitive impairment or dementia. Methods: Images of an analog clock drawn by 3,263 cognitively intact and 160 impaired subjects were collected during in-person dementia evaluations by the Framingham Heart Study. We processed the CDT images, participant’s age, and education level using a deep learning algorithm to predict dementia status. Results: When only the CDT images were used, the deep learning model predicted dementia status with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 81.3% ± 4.3%. A composite logistic regression model using age, level of education, and the predictions from the CDT-only model, yielded an average AUC and average F1 score of 91.9% ±1.1% and 94.6% ±0.4%, respectively. Conclusion: Our modeling framework establishes a proof-of-principle that deep learning can be applied on images derived from the CDT to predict dementia status. When fully validated, this approach can offer a cost-effective and easily deployable mechanism for detecting cognitive impairment.

Neurosciences & Neurology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Astronomical image time series classification using CONVolutional attENTION (ConvEntion)

Aims: The treatment of astronomical image time series has won increasing attention in recent years. Indeed, numerous surveys following up on transient objects are in progress or under construction, such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey for Space and Time (LSST), which is poised to produce huge amounts of these time series. The associated scientific topics are extensive, ranging from the study of objects in our galaxy to the observation of the most distant supernovae for measuring the expansion of the universe. With such a large amount of data available, the need for robust automatic tools to detect and classify celestial objects is growing steadily. Methods: This study is based on the assumption that astronomical images contain more information than light curves. In this paper, we propose a novel approach based on deep learning for classifying different types of space objects directly using images. We named our approach ConvEntion, which stands for CONVolutional attENTION. It is based on convolutions and transformers, which are new approaches for the treatment of astronomical image time series. Our solution integrates spatio-temporal features and can be applied to various types of image datasets with any number of bands. Results: In this work, we solved various problems the datasets tend to suffer from and we present new results for classifications using astronomical image time series with an increase in accuracy of 13%, compared to state-of-the-art approaches that use image time series, and a 12% increase, compared to approaches that use light curves.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A domain wall-magnetic tunnel junction artificial synapse with notched geometry for accurate and efficient training of deep neural networks

Inspired by the parallelism and efficiency of the brain, several candidates for artificial synapse devices have been developed for neuromorphic computing, yet a nonlinear and asymmetric synaptic response curve precludes their use for backpropagation, the foundation of modern supervised learning. Spintronic devices—which benefit from high endurance, low power consumption, low latency, and CMOS compatibility—are a promising technology for memory, and domain-wall magnetic tunnel junction (DW-MTJ) devices have been shown to implement synaptic functions such as long-term potentiation and spike-timing dependent plasticity. In this work, we propose a notched DW-MTJ synapse as a candidate for supervised learning. Using micromagnetic simulations at room temperature, we show that notched synapses ensure the non-volatility of the synaptic weight and allow for highly linear, symmetric, and reproducible weight updates using either spin transfer torque (STT) or spin–orbit torque (SOT) mechanisms of DW propagation. We use lookup tables constructed from micromagnetics simulations to model the training of neural networks built with DW-MTJ synapses on both the MNIST and Fashion-MNIST image classification tasks. Accounting for thermal noise and realistic process variations, the DW-MTJ devices achieve classification accuracy close to ideal floating-point updates using both STT and SOT devices at room temperature and at 400 K. Our work establishes the basis for a magnetic artificial synapse that can eventually lead to hardware neural networks with fully spintronic matrix operations implementing machine learning.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

pvOps: a Python package for empirical analysis of photovoltaic field data

The purpose of pvOps is to support empirical evaluations of data collected in the field related to the operations and maintenance (O&M) of photovoltaic (PV) power plants. pvOps presently contains modules that address the diversity of field data, including text-based maintenance logs, current-voltage (IV) curves, and timeseries of production information. The package functions leverage machine learning, visualization, and other techniques to enable cleaning, processing, and fusion of these datasets. These capabilities are intended to facilitate easier evaluation of field patterns and extraction of relevant insights to support reliability-related decision-making for PV sites. The open-source code, examples, and instructions for installing the package through PyPI can be accessed through the GitHub repository.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Constraints on the Physical Properties of GW190814 through Simulations Based on DECam Follow-up Observations by the Dark Energy Survey

On 2019 August 14, the LIGO and Virgo Collaborations detected gravitational waves from a black hole and a 2.6 solar mass compact object, possibly the first neutron star–black hole merger. In search of an optical counterpart, the Dark Energy Survey (DES) obtained deep imaging of the entire 90% confidence level localization area with Blanco/DECam 0, 1, 2, 3, 6, and 16 nights after the merger. Objects with varying brightness were detected by the DES Pipeline, and we systematically reduced the candidate counterparts through catalog matching, light-curve properties, host-galaxy photometric redshifts, Southern Astrophysical Research spectroscopic follow-up observations, and machine-learning-based photometric classification. All candidates were rejected as counterparts to the merger. To quantify the sensitivity of our search, we applied our selection criteria to full light-curve simulations of supernovae and kilonovae as they would appear in the DECam observations. Because the source class of the merger was uncertain, we utilized an agnostic, three-component kilonova model based on tidally disrupted neutron star (NS) ejecta properties to quantify our detection efficiency of a counterpart if the merger included an NS. We find that, if a kilonova occurred during this merger, configurations where the ejected matter is greater than 0.07 solar masses, has lanthanide abundance less than 10 -8.56 , and has a velocity between 0.18c and 0.21c are disfavored at the 2σ level. Furthermore, we estimate that our background reduction methods are capable of associating gravitational wave signals with a detected electromagnetic counterpart at the 4σ level in 95% of future follow-up observations.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS2009

Understanding the Scalability of Bayesian Network Inference using Clique Tree Growth Curves

Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to represent and efficiently compute with multi-variate probability distributions in a wide range of disciplines. One of the main approaches to perform computation in BNs is clique tree clustering and propagation. In this approach, BN computation consists of propagation in a clique tree compiled from a Bayesian network. There is a lack of understanding of how clique tree computation time, and BN computation time in more general, depends on variations in BN size and structure. On the one hand, complexity results tell us that many interesting BN queries are NP-hard or worse to answer, and it is not hard to find application BNs where the clique tree approach in practice cannot be used. On the other hand, it is well-known that tree-structured BNs can be used to answer probabilistic queries in polynomial time. In this article, we develop an approach to characterizing clique tree growth as a function of parameters that can be computed in polynomial time from BNs, specifically: (i) the ratio of the number of a BN's non-root nodes to the number of root nodes, or (ii) the expected number of moral edges in their moral graphs. Our approach is based on combining analytical and experimental results. Analytically, we partition the set of cliques in a clique tree into different sets, and introduce a growth curve for each set. For the special case of bipartite BNs, we consequently have two growth curves, a mixed clique growth curve and a root clique growth curve. In experiments, we systematically increase the degree of the root nodes in bipartite Bayesian networks, and find that root clique growth is well-approximated by Gompertz growth curves. It is believed that this research improves the understanding of the scaling behavior of clique tree clustering, provides a foundation for benchmarking and developing improved BN inference and machine learning algorithms, and presents an aid for analytical trade-off studies of clique tree clustering using growth curves.

Mengshoel, Ole Jakob↗
DOE OSTI2021

From calibration to parameter learning: Harnessing the scaling effects of big data in geoscientific modeling

Abstract The behaviors and skills of models in many geosciences (e.g., hydrology and ecosystem sciences) strongly depend on spatially-varying parameters that need calibration. A well-calibrated model can reasonably propagate information from observations to unobserved variables via model physics, but traditional calibration is highly inefficient and results in non-unique solutions. Here we propose a novel differentiable parameter learning (dPL) framework that efficiently learns a global mapping between inputs (and optionally responses) and parameters. Crucially, dPL exhibits beneficial scaling curves not previously demonstrated to geoscientists: as training data increases, dPL achieves better performance, more physical coherence, and better generalizability (across space and uncalibrated variables), all with orders-of-magnitude lower computational cost. We demonstrate examples that learned from soil moisture and streamflow, where dPL drastically outperformed existing evolutionary and regionalization methods, or required only ~12.5% of the training data to achieve similar performance. The generic scheme promotes the integration of deep learning and process-based models, without mandating reimplementation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗