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NASA NTRS2021

KMT-2019-BLG-0371 and the Limits of Bayesian Analysis

We show that the perturbation at the peak of the light curve of microlensing event KMT-2019-BLG-0371 is explained by a model with a mass ratio between the host star and planet of q ∼ 0.08. Due to the short event duration (t(sub E) ∼ 6.5 days), the secondary object in this system could potentially be a massive giant planet. A Bayesian analysis shows that the system most likely consists of a host star with a mass M(sub h) = 0.09(+0.14/-0.05) M⨀ and a massive giant planet with a mass = M(sub h) = 7.70(+11.34/-3.90) M(sub Jup). However, the interpretation of the secondary as a planet (i.e., as having M(sub p) < 13M(sub Jup)) rests entirely on the Bayesian analysis. Motivated by this event, we conduct an investigation to determine which constraints meaningfully affect Bayesian analyses for microlensing events. We find that the masses inferred from such a Bayesian analysis are determined almost entirely by the measured value of θ(sub E) and are relatively insensitive to other factors such as the direction of the event (l,b), the lens–source relative proper motion μ(sub rel), or the specific Galactic model prior.

Binary lens microlensing↗
DOE OSTI2026

Growth-controlled twinning and magnetic anisotropy in CeSb 2

Cerium diantimonide (CeSb 2 ) is a layered heavy-fermion Kondo lattice material that hosts complex magnetism and pressure-induced superconductivity. The interpretation of its in-plane anisotropy has remained unsettled due to structural twinning, which superimposes orthogonal magnetic responses. Here, in this study, we combine controlled crystal growth with magnetization and rotational magnetometry to disentangle the effects of twinning. Nearly untwinned high-quality single crystals reveal the intrinsic in-plane anisotropy: The in-plane easy axis saturates at 𝑀 easy ⁡(4 T) ≈ 1.8 𝜇 B /Ce, while the in-plane hard axis magnetization is strongly suppressed, nearly linear, and comparable to the out-of-plane response. These results resolve long-standing discrepancies in reported magnetic measurements, in which in-plane metamagnetic transition fields and saturation magnetization varied significantly across previous studies. Growth experiments demonstrate that avoiding the proposed 𝛼 𝛽 structural transition—through Sb-rich flux and slower cooling—systematically reduces twinning. However, powder x-ray diffraction and differential thermal analysis measurements show no clear evidence of a distinct 𝛽 phase. Our results establish a consistent magnetic phase diagram and provide essential constraints for crystal-electric field models, enabling a clearer understanding of the interplay between anisotropic magnetism and unconventional superconductivity in CeSb 2 .

Weber, Jan T. [Goethe University, Frankfurt (Germa↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stabilization of a Majorana zero mode through quantum frustration

We analyze a system in which a topological Majorana zero mode (tMZM) combines with a Majorana produced by quantum frustration (fMZM) to produce a novel ground state. The system that we study combines two parts, a grounded topological superconducting wire that hosts two tMZMs at its ends and an on-resonant quantum dot connected to two dissipative leads. The quantum dot with dissipative leads creates an effective two-channel Kondo (2CK) state in which quantum frustration yields an isolated fMZM at the dot. We find that coupling the dot to one end of the topological wire stabilizes the tMZM at the other end. Three routes are used to obtain these results: (i) calculation of the conductance through an auxiliary detector quantum dot, (ii) renormalization group (RG) arguments and the g theorem, and (iii) a fully nonequilibrium calculation of the I(V) curve and shot noise S(V) through the detector dot. In addition to providing a route to achieving an unpaired Majorana zero mode, this scheme provides a clear signature of the presence of the 2CK frustration-induced Majorana.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
NASA NTRS1995

Evolution of the solar wind acceleration region during 1990-1994

The single-station measurements of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) at 2 and 8 GHz have been made at the Kashima Space Research Center of the Communications Research Laboratory in the period from 1990 to 1994. These IPS data are used to study the radial distribution of solar wind velocity and density fluctuations near the sun (i.e. 10-70 Rs), and the long-term variation in these properties. The IPS co-spectrum technique is applied here to estimate the solar wind velocity. Derived velocities show that the solar wind gains a speed significantly in the radial range from 10 to 30 Rs (solar radii). which is much farther than the source surface of the thermally driven solar wind model. From the scintillation index analysis. it is found that the radial fall of density fluctuations is well described by the power-law function. A series of IPS observations reveals that a pronounced change in velocity and turbulence level for this radial range occurs at the polar region of the sun during 1990-1994. That is, the high speed wind and the reduced turbulence region develop there as the solar activity declines. On the other hand, little long-term variation is observed for the solar wind acceleration region at a low latitude. From the comparison with He 1O83 nm observations. it is demonstrated that the change of the solar wind structure is closely linked with the evolution of the coronal hole on the solar surface.

Tokumaru, M.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Rapidity distributions of Z = 1 isotopes and the nuclear symmetry energy from Sn+Sn collisions with radioactive beams at 270 MeV/nucleon

The rapidity distributions of hydrogen isotopes emitted from central collisions of neutron-rich 132 Sn+ 124 Sn and neutron-deficient 108 Sn+ 112 Sn systems at 270 MeV/nucleon were investigated at RIKEN-RIBF. The data are compared with antisymmetrized molecular dynamics (AMD) calculations and the rapidity distributions can be reproduced after adjusting the in-medium nucleon-nucleon cross sections. The double ratios between the two reaction systems taken for the relative yields of deuteron to proton (d/p) and triton to proton (t/p) are further examined in the midrapidity domain, where the adjustments in the AMD calculations do not affect much on them. The d/p and t/p double ratios at midrapidity agree well with the ratio of the system neutron numbers and its squared value, respectively, and the rapidity dependence of these double ratios is consistent with a picture of partial mixing of colliding nuclei. By comparing with the AMD model which shows a strong symmetry energy dependence of the t/p double ratio, the experimental result in the midrapidity domain favors the calculation with a symmetry-energy slope parameter around L = 46 MeV rather than L = 108 MeV.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Occasions for laughter and dementia risk: Findings from a six‐year cohort study

Aim Currently, there is little evidence on the relationship between laughter and the risk of dementia, and since laughter is mainly a social behavior, we aimed to examine the association between various occasions for laughter and the risk of dementia in Japanese older adults. Methods We draw upon 6‐year follow‐up data from the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study, including 12 165 independent older adults aged 65 years or over. Occasions for laughter were assessed using a questionnaire, while dementia was diagnosed using the standardized dementia scale of the long‐term care insurance system in Japan. Cox proportional hazards models were estimated, yielding hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results The multivariable hazard ratio of dementia incidence for all participants in the groups for high versus low variety of occasions for laughter was 0.84 (95% CI: 0.72–0.98, P for trend <0.001). A greater variety of occasions for laughter was associated with a lower risk of dementia 0.78 (95% CI: 0.63–0.96, P for trend <0.001) among women, but was less pronounced for men, with significant associations only for the medium group. Laughing during conversations with friends, communicating with children or grandchildren, and listening to the radio were primarily associated with decreased risk. Conclusion A greater variety of laughter occasions in individual and social settings was associated with a reduced risk of dementia. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2022; 22: 392–398 .

Wang, Yu↗
NASA NTRS2021

New giant planet beyond the snow line for an extended MOA exoplanet microlens sample

Characterizing a planet detected by microlensing is hard if the planetary signal is weak or the lens-source relative trajectory is far from caustics. However, statistical analyses of planet demography must include those planets to accurately determine occurrence rates. As part of a systematic modelling effort in the context of a >10-yr retrospective analysis of MOA’s survey observations to build an extended MOA statistical sample, we analyse the light curve of the planetary microlensing event MOA-2014-BLG-472. This event provides weak constraints on the physical parameters of the lens, as a result of a planetary anomaly occurring at low magnification in the light curve. We use a Bayesian analysis to estimate the properties of the planet, based on a refined Galactic model and the assumption that all Milky Way’s stars have an equal planet-hosting probability. We find that a lens consisting of a 1.9(+2.2,−1.2)M(J) giant planet orbiting a 0.31(+0.36,−0.19)Mꙩ host at a projected separation of 0.75±0.24au is consistent with the observations and is most likely, based on the Galactic priors. The lens most probably lies in the Galactic bulge, at 7.2(+0.6,−1.7)kpc from Earth. The accurate measurement of the measured planet-to-host star mass ratio will be included in the next statistical analysis of cold planet demography detected by microlensing.

Clément Ranc↗
NASA NTRS2022

An Isolated Mass-gap Black Hole or Neutron Star Detected with Astrometric Microlensing

We present the analysis of five black hole candidates identified from gravitational microlensing surveys. Hubble Space Telescope astrometric data and densely sampled light curves from ground-based microlensing surveys are fit with a single-source, single-lens microlensing model in order to measure the mass and luminosity of each lens and determine if it is a black hole. One of the five targets (OGLE-2011-BLG-0462/MOA-2011-BLG-191 or OB110462 for short) shows a significant >1 mas coherent astrometric shift, little to no lens flux, and has an inferred lens mass of 1.6–4.4 M ⨀ . This makes OB110462 the first definitive discovery of a compact object through astrometric microlensing and it is most likely either a neutron star or a low-mass black hole. This compact-object lens is relatively nearby (0.70–1.92 kpc) and has a slow transverse motion of <30 kms -1 . OB110462 shows significant tension between models well fit to photometry versus astrometry, making it currently difficult to distinguish between a neutron star and a black hole. Additional observations and modeling with more complex system geometries, such as binary sources, are needed to resolve the puzzling nature of this object. For the remaining four candidates, the lens masses are <2M ⨀ , and they are unlikely to be black holes; two of the four are likely white dwarfs or neutron stars. We compare the full sample of five candidates to theoretical expectations on the number of black holes in the Milky Way (∼10 8 ) and find reasonable agreement given the small sample size.

Astrophysical black holes↗
NASA NTRS2022

MOA-2019-BLG-008Lb: A New Microlensing Detection of an Object at the Planet/Brown Dwarf Boundary

We report on the observations, analysis and interpretation of the microlensing event MOA-2019-BLG-008. The observed anomaly in the photometric light curve is best described through a binary lens model. In this model, the source did not cross caustics and no finite-source effects were observed. Therefore, the angular Einstein ring radius θ E cannot be measured from the light curve alone. However, the large event duration, t E ∼ 80 days, allows a precise measurement of the microlensing parallax π E . In addition to the constraints on the angular radius θ* and the apparent brightness I s of the source, we employ the Besançon and GalMod galactic models to estimate the physical properties of the lens. We find excellent agreement between the predictions of the two galactic models: the companion is likely a resident of the brown dwarf desert with a mass M p ∼ 30 M Jup , and the host is a main-sequence dwarf star. The lens lies along the line of sight to the Galactic bulge, at a distance of ≤4 kpc. We estimate that in about 10 yr the lens and source will be separated by ∼55 mas, and it will be possible to confirm the exact nature of the lensing system by using high-resolution imaging from ground- or space-based observatories.

E. Bachelet↗
NASA NTRS2019

The 2L1S/1L2S Degeneracy for Two Microlensing Planet Candidates Discovered by the KMTNet Survey in 2017

We report two microlensing planet candidates discovered by the Korea Microlensing Telescope Network (KMTNet) survey in 2017. However, both events have the 2L1S/1L2S degeneracy, which is an obstacle to claiming the discovery of the planets with certainty unless the degeneracy can be resolved. For KMT-2017-BLG-0962, the degeneracy cannot be resolved. If the 2L1S solution is correct, KMT-2017-BLG-0962 might be produced by a super Jupiter-mass planet orbiting a mid-M-dwarf host star. For KMT-2017-BLG-1119, the light-curve modeling favors the 2L1S solution but higher-resolution observations of the baseline object tend to support the 1L2S interpretation rather than the planetary interpretation. This degeneracy might be resolved by a future measurement of the lens-source relative proper motion. This study shows that the problem of resolving 2L1S/1L2S degeneracy exists over a much wider range of conditions than those considered by the theoretical study of Gaudi (1998).

I.-G. Shin↗
NASA NTRS2021

KMT-2021-BLG-0322: Severe Degeneracy Between Triple-lens and Higher-order Binary-lens Interpretations

We investigate the microlensing event KMT-2021-BLG-0322, for which the light curve exhibits three distinctive sets of caustic-crossing features. It is found that the overall features of the light curve are approximately described by a binary-lens (2L1S) model, but the model leaves substantial residuals. We test various interpretations with the aim of explaining the residuals. Methods. We find that the residuals can be explained either by considering a nonrectilinear lens-source motion caused by the microlens-parallax and lens-orbital effects or by adding a low-mass companion to the binary lens (3L1S model). The degeneracy between the higher-order 2L1S model and the 3L1S model is very severe, making it difficult to single out a correct solution based on the photometric data. This degeneracy was known before for two previous events (MACHO-97-BLG-41 and OGLE-2013-BLG-0723),which led to the false detections of planets in binary systems, and thus the identification of the degeneracy for KMT-2021-BLG-0322illustrates that the degeneracy can be not only common but also very severe, emphasizing the need to check both interpretations of deviations from 2L1S models. Results. From the Bayesian analysis conducted with the measured lensing observables of the event timescale, angular Einstein radius, and microlens parallax, it was estimated that the binary lens components have masses(M1,M2)=(0.62+0.25−0.26M,0.07+0.03−0.03M), for both2L1S and 3L1S solutions, and the mass of the tertiary lens component according to the 3L1S solution isM3=6.40+2.64−2.78MJ.

Gravitational lensing: micro↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine-learning-based estimates of global natural vegetated wetland methane emissions (2000–2025)

Wetlands are the largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), yet comprehensive global budgets are typically delayed by years, preventing a timely understanding of CH 4 sources, sinks, and trends. To reduce this delay, we present a model emulator-driven framework and accompanying workflow that enable timely, continuous emission updates using a machine-learning emulator to reconstruct spatially explicit monthly emission fields at 1° × 1° resolution. We apply this framework to a global dataset of natural vegetated wetland CH 4 emissions to extend the most recent Global Methane Budget (GMB; Saunois et al., 2025) record that covers the 2000–2020 emissions through 2025. In the test data (∼ 30 % of the total dataset), the emulator achieved a global R 2 of 0.65 ± 0.003 (mean ± 95 % CI, hereafter) and an RMSE of 5.49 ± 0.12×10 -3 Tg CH 4 yr −1 . The emulator is trained on 35 GMB model estimates, including 22 process-based models and 13 atmospheric inversions, paired with 10 ensemble realizations of 11 gridded climate predictor variables from atmospheric reanalyses. Our results show that the global mean predicted wetland CH 4 emissions for 2021–2025 (157.8 ± 2.4 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) are not significantly higher (∼ 0.05 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) than the 2000–2020 baseline. However, this stability masks a significant hemispheric redistribution of emissions. We detect an increase in Northern Hemisphere (NH) emissions in 2021–2025, with mid- and high-latitudes increasing by 0.76 ± 0.07 and 0.35 ± 0.03 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , respectively, while the tropics and Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics show offsetting negative trends (−0.95 ± 0.19 and -0.11 ± 0.02 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , respectively). The predicted emissions are able to capture the low emissions in 2023 in South America linked to El Niño-related drought, as reported by recent studies (Ciais et al., 2026; Quinn et al., 2025). Furthermore, we identify a distinct seasonal amplification of global emission trends that peaks in late boreal summer. This new modeled dataset and operational framework bridge the gap between the latest updated budgets and low-latency monitoring, providing a scalable capacity to frequently update global emission estimates and critical early warnings of regional wetland feedback loops. The data are publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18870108 (Li et al., 2026).

Li, Mengze [National University of Singapore (Sing↗
DOE OSTI2022

Are Land‐Use Change Emissions in Southeast Asia Decreasing or Increasing?

Abstract Southeast Asia is a region known for active land‐use changes (LUC) over the past 60 years; yet, how trends in net CO 2 uptake and release resulting from LUC activities (net LUC flux) have changed through past decades remains uncertain. The level of uncertainty in net LUC flux from process‐based models is so high that it cannot be concluded that newer estimates are necessarily more reliable than older ones. Here, we examined net LUC flux estimates of Southeast Asia for the 1980s−2010s from older and newer sets of Dynamic Global Vegetation Model simulations (TRENDY v2 and v7, respectively), and forcing data used for running those simulations, along with two book‐keeping estimates (H&N and BLUE). These estimates yielded two contrasting historical LUC transitions, such that TRENDY v2 and H&N showed a transition from increased emissions from the 1980s to 1990s to declining emissions in the 2000s, while TRENDY v7 and BLUE showed the opposite transition. We found that these contrasting transitions originated in the update of LUC forcing data, which reduced the loss of forest area during the 1990s. Further evaluation of remote sensing studies, atmospheric inversions, and the history of forestry and environmental policies in Southeast Asia supported the occurrence of peak emissions in the 1990s and declining thereafter. However, whether LUC emissions continue to decline in Southeast Asia remains uncertain as key processes in recent years, such as conversion of peat forest to oil‐palm plantation, are yet to be represented in the forcing data, suggesting a need for further revision.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2019

OGLE-2017-BLG-1186: First Application of Asteroseismology and Gaussian Processes to microlensing

We present the analysis of the event OGLE-2017-BLG-1186 from the 2017 Spitzer microlensing campaign. This is a remarkable microlensing event because its source is photometrically bright and variable, which makes it possible to perform an asteroseismic analysis using ground-based data. We find that the source star is an oscillating red giant with average timescale of ∼9 d. The asteroseismic analysis also provides us source properties including the source angular size (∼27 μas) and distance (∼11.5 kpc), which are essential for inferring the properties of the lens. When fitting the light curve, we test the feasibility of Gaussian processes (GPs) in handling the correlated noise caused by the variable source. We find that the parameters from the GP model are generally more loosely constrained than those from the traditional χ(exp 2) minimization method. We note that this event is the first microlensing system for which asteroseismology and GPs have been used to account for the variable source. With both finite-source effect and microlens parallax measured, we find that the lens is likely a ∼0.045 Mʘ brown dwarf at distance ∼9.0 kpc, or a ∼0.073 Mʘ ultracool dwarf at distance ∼9.8 kpc. Combining the estimated lens properties with a Bayesian analysis using a Galactic model, we find a ∼ 35 per cent probability for the lens to be a bulge object and ∼ 65 per cent to be a background disc object.

S.-S. Li↗
DOE OSTI2020

OGLE-2017-BLG-0406: Spitzer Microlens Parallax Reveals Saturn-mass Planet Orbiting M-dwarf Host in the Inner Galactic Disk

We report the discovery and analysis of the planetary microlensing event OGLE-2017-BLG-0406, which was observed both from the ground and by the Spitzer satellite in a solar orbit. At high magnification, the anomaly in the light curve was densely observed by ground-based-survey and follow-up groups, and it was found to be explained by a planetary lens with a planet/host mass ratio of q=7.0×10{sup −4} from the light-curve modeling. The ground-only and Spitzer-“only” data each provide very strong one-dimensional (1D) constraints on the 2D microlens parallax vector π{sub E}. When combined, these yield a precise measurement of π{sub E} and of the masses of the host M{sub host}=0.56±0.07 M{sub ⊙} and planet M {sub planet} = 0.41 ± 0.05 M {sub Jup}. The system lies at a distance D {sub L} = 5.2 ± 0.5 kpc from the Sun toward the Galactic bulge, and the host is more likely to be a disk population star according to the kinematics of the lens. The projected separation of the planet from the host is a{sub ⊥}=3.5±0.3 au (i.e., just over twice the snow line). The Galactic-disk kinematics are established in part from a precise measurement of the source proper motion based on OGLE-IV data. By contrast, the Gaia proper-motion measurement of the source suffers from a catastrophic 10σ error.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2021

Are Land-Use Change Emissions in Southeast Asia Decreasing or Increasing?

Southeast Asia is a region known for active land-use changes (LUC) over the past 60 years; yet, how trends in net CO2 uptake and release resulting from LUC activities (net LUC flux) have changed through past decades remains uncertain. The level of uncertainty in net LUC flux from process-based models is so high that it cannot be concluded that newer estimates are necessarily more reliable than older ones. Here, we examined net LUC flux estimates of Southeast Asia for the 1980s−2010s from older and newer sets of Dynamic Global Vegetation Model simulations (TRENDY v2 and v7, respectively), and forcing data used for running those simulations, along with two book-keeping estimates (H&N and BLUE). These estimates yielded two contrasting historical LUC transitions, such that TRENDY v2 and H&N showed a transition from increased emissions from the 1980s to 1990s to declining emissions in the 2000s, while TRENDY v7 and BLUE showed the opposite transition. We found that these contrasting transitions originated in the update of LUC forcing data, which reduced the loss of forest area during the 1990s. Further evaluation of remote sensing studies, atmospheric inversions, and the history of forestry and environmental policies in Southeast Asia supported the occurrence of peak emissions in the 1990s and declining thereafter. However, whether LUC emissions continue to decline in Southeast Asia remains uncertain as key processes in recent years, such as conversion of peat forest to oil-palm plantation, are yet to be represented in the forcing data, suggesting a need for further revision.

land-use change↗
NASA NTRS2022

Precision Measurement of a Brown Dwarf Mass in A Binary System in the Microlensing Event OGLE-2019-BLG-0033/MOA-2019-BLG-035

Context. Brown dwarfs are transition objects between stars and planets that are still poorly understood, for which several competing mechanisms have been proposed to describe their formation. Mass measurements are generally difficult to carry out for isolated objects as well as for brown dwarfs orbiting low-mass stars, which are often too faint for a spectroscopic follow-up. Aims. Microlensing provides an alternative tool for the discovery and investigation of such faint systems. Here, we present an analysis of the microlensing event OGLE-2019-BLG-0033/MOA-2019-BLG-035, which is caused by a binary system composed of a brown dwarf orbiting a red dwarf. Methods. Thanks to extensive ground observations and the availability of space observations from Spitzer, it has been possible to obtain accurate estimates of all microlensing parameters, including the parallax, source radius, and orbital motion of the binary lens. Results. Following an accurate modeling process, we found that the lens is composed of a red dwarf with a mass of M(1) = 0:149 ± 0.010 M⊙ and a brown dwarf with a mass of M(2) = 0:0463 ± 0:0031 M at a projected separation of a⊥ = 0:585 au. The system has a peculiar velocity that is typical of old metal-poor populations in the thick disk. A percent-level precision in the mass measurement of brown dwarfs has been achieved only in a few microlensing events up to now, but will likely become more common in the future thanks to the Roman space telescope.

gravitational lensing↗
NASA NTRS2005

Influence of Nucleation Mechanisms on the Radiative Properties of Deep Convective Clouds and Subvisible Cirrus in CRYSTAL/FACE

During the past few years we have conducted work on several different topics, as reflected by our publications. As one of the Co-Project scientists for The Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers - Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL FACE) we worked to help design the mission and then conduct it in the field. Another major activity during the past two years has been to pull together various groups to formulate plans for follow on missions to CRYSTAL FACE. We organized a workshop at the University of Colorado during the summer of 2003 to assess the best locations for future missions. Working with a group of about 10 scientists from around the country we prepared a science-planning document (Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling Experiment (TC(sup 4)) that outlined the rationale, locations, strategy to accomplish the goals, and possible payloads for a set of three tropical missions. We also prepared background materials for various NRAs being prepared at NASA Headquarters for missions in Costa Rica, Darwin and Guam. In conjunction with the group at NASA Ames we have helped build a new numerical model for deep convection and have applied that model to simulate the CRYSTAL data. Our goal in particular has been to better understand how convection distributes water vapor isotopes. CRYSTAL observations of water isotopes are very different from those suggested by previous workers who assumed the isotopes would obey Rayleigh fractionation. The water isotope study has several implications. First it is a check on the realism of the deep convection model. Second, the isotopes are a measure of the precipitation removal in the atmosphere. Hence they provide a constraint on a parameter that is difficult to otherwise measure. Finally it has been suggested that isotopes may be the key to unraveling the water transport into the stratosphere and upper troposphere. Such transport is critical both for the radiation balance and for stratospheric chemistry. Ours is the first model that is able to treat this transport. Our initial results have just been submitted to Geophys. Res. Lett (Smith et al., 2005). Essentially we are able to explain the vertical profiles of isotopes in the tropical tropopause transition layer. We are also able to account for stratospheric humidity and isotope abundances with this model. We have also been heavily involved in trying to improve our understanding of nitric acid condensation on ice. Gao et al (2004) have shown that water supersaturations above ice occur when the atmosphere is supersaturated with respect to nitric acid trihydrate. As one of the co-authors of that work, we suggested the mechanism that may explain why this is occurring. Essentially, ice does not like to grow near unit supersaturation, but does so because the water molecules can find sites on the ice surface to attach themselves to before they fly off the ice surface. This phenomena was well known in the 1960s when it was a source of debate about whether condensation and evaporation coefficients for ice would be the same. Evaporation does not require any molecular orientation, while condensation does, so it was possible that the coefficients would differ. They don't differ because the water molecules rapidly move across the surface and find places to attach. Nitric acid may be occupying these preferred sites and therefore the water molecules can't find a desirable place to attach. We anticipate that this research will be the subject of laboratory work during the coming few years. Another possibility that has been suggested is that cubic ice is forming in clouds. We have measured the vapor pressure of cubic ice, and plan to publish that result in the next few months. We have also been working on additional aspects of the condensation of nitric acid on ice. With Y. Kondo we studied the condensation of NOy on ice using the SOLVE data. Gamblin et al. have continued this work. The CRYSTAL NOy and HNO, groups have shown th their data can be fit using standard Langmuir isotherms as suggested in some, but not all, laboratory studies. We have found in the SOLVE data set that this is not the case. Moreover some laboratory studies show there are important kinetic effects that may be occurring in the atmosphere limiting the transfer of nitric acid to the ice. The SOLVE data seem consistent with these studies. We are currently re-analyzing the CRYSTAL data to look for these kinetic effects. There are a number of implications of these studies. One of the more interesting is that the nitric acid coating on ice can be used as a cloud clock to determine how long the cloud parcel has been in existence. We have also been involved with several laboratory studies. We have worked to improve the database on ice optical constants, which are critical for remote sensing. We have also studied the ways in which ice nucleates on clays. We suspect now that the standard theories used for depositional ice nucleation are completely incorrect. Further work will be needed to develop a new theory.

Toon, Owen B.↗