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DOE OSTI2026

Wildfire-Power Grid Interactions: Feedback, Impacts, Monitoring, Modeling, and Mitigation Strategies

Wildfires are increasingly interacting with electric power systems through a two-way hazard chain: fires damage grid assets and trigger cascading outages, while grid faults can ignite new fires under hot, dry, and windy conditions. This review synthesizes the state of knowledge across five domains: (i) physical impacts of flames, heat, and smoke on lines, towers, insulators, and substations; (ii) power-infrastructure-initiated ignitions via conductor clash, high-impedance faults, and corona discharge; (iii) widespread blackouts and disproportionate societal impacts; (iv) multi-scale monitoring spanning laboratory tests, in-situ and grid-integrated sensors, and Earth observation; (v) coupled modeling that links fire behavior with grid operations; and (vi) technological and strategic mitigation pathways spanning prevention, response, and recovery. We integrate these domains into a novel 'feedback-aware' socio-technical framework. Through a longitudinal analysis (2005-2025) of global incidents, we identify that while vegetation contact remains the most frequent ignition source, aging infrastructure failure has emerged as a critical driver of catastrophic 'mega-fires'. We further identify persistent gaps, including limited interoperability of high-frequency grid and environmental data, scarce real-time data assimilation, and under-developed equity metrics for outage management. We conclude by outlining a research agenda to (1) deploy interoperable sensing architectures, (2) advance feedback-coupled fire-grid simulations, and (3) evaluate mitigation portfolios through techno-economic and fairness lenses. Recognizing wildfire-grid interactions as coupled socio-technical systems is essential for protecting infrastructure and communities and for ensuring reliable, sustainable electricity in a changing world.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

On the Nature of Recoater Damage Powder Spreading Mechanics

Laser powder bed fusion (PBF-LB) additive manufacturing gained popularity for the creation of high mix, low volume parts for defense and commercial applications. Parts made via PBF-LB can be difficult to qualify due to their variation in performance, even within the same build. During the build process, regions of the PBF-LB recoater blade could be subject to damage by spatter or superelevation in the powder bed. As a result, the worn recoater can potentially cause spreading defects in the localized topography profile, which could in turn cause porosity or form deviations. These process concerns are not well understood for their criticality and subsequent impact on part quality. This study will investigate the mechanics of recoater damage through two experimental builds. Post-mortem inspection of the failure region will be conducted with laser line profilometry and will help propose a better understanding of the criticality of extreme recoater damage.

In-Situ Monitoring↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Short-warning Mitigation via Intentional Robust Disruption of a Hypothetical Impact of Asteroid 2023 NT1

We investigate various short-warning mitigation scenarios via fragmentation for a hypothetical impact of asteroid 2023 NT1, a near-Earth object (NEO) that was discovered on 2023 July 15, two days after its closest approach to Earth on July 13. The asteroid passed by Earth within ∼0.25 lunar distances, with a closest approach of ∼1 × 10 5 km and a velocity of 11.27 km s −1 . Its size remains largely uncertain, with an estimated diameter range of 26–58 m and a most probable estimate of 34 m (JPL Sentry, 2023 September 15; weighted by the NEO size frequency distribution). If 2023 NT1 had collided with Earth, it could have caused significant local damage. Assuming a spherical asteroid with a diameter of 34 m, uniform density of 2.6 g cm −3 , and impact velocity of 15.59 km s −1 , a collision would have yielded an estimated impact energy of ∼1.5 Mt, approximately 3 times the energy of the Chelyabinsk airburst in 2013. We analyze the effectiveness of mitigation via intentional robust disruption for objects similar to 2023 NT1. We utilize Pulverize It (PI), a NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts study of planetary defense via fragmentation, to model potential mitigation scenarios through simulations of hypervelocity asteroid disruption and atmospheric ground effects in the case of a terminal defense mode. Simulations suggest that PI is an effective multimodal approach for planetary defense that can operate in extremely short interdiction modes, in addition to long interdiction timescales with extended warning. Our simulations support the proposition that threats like 2023 NT1 can be effectively mitigated with intercepts of 1 day (or less) prior to impact, yielding minimal to no ground damage.

Asteroids↗

DOE OSTI2020

Impact of Grain Size on Performance Degradation of TREAT LEU

We argue that radiation damage induced degradation of thermal conductivity does not set a lower limit on fuel grain sizes for the low enriched uranium fuel design of the Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT). Earlier work reports that smaller grains cause a larger degradation of thermal conductivity than larger grains constraining the smallest feasible size of fuel grains. This work assesses TREAT’s transient performance in the presence of radiation damage. The difference between the two studies is in treating damaged and fresh graphite as serial (this work) or parallel (previous) heat resistors. We use a multiphysics model of TREAT fuel grains to compute the reduction in transient capability measured by the total deposited energy as a function of irradiation dose. We find that radiation damage has a negligible effect on energy deposition.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Short Range Order in Disordered Spinel and the Impact on Cation Vacancy Transport

Spinels are important complex oxides for use in radiation damage environments and resulting from the corrosion of steels. It is known that, in these environments, normal spinels exist with some concentration of antisite cation pairs known as inversion. In this work we show that even in highly disordered states characterized by high levels of inversion, spinel still shows some short range order (SRO) that manifests itself in antisite chains. The propensity to form these antisite chains is confirmed through Monte Carlo simulations which find that the length of chains which can form depend on the spinel chemistry. We also consider the effect of antisite chains on the diffusivity of cation vacancies and find the effect strongly depends on the spinel chemistry. At the extremes, chains in FeCr2O4 significantly increase vacancy transport but in MgAl2O4 chains have the inverse effect of drastically reducing vacancy mobility. The explanation of these dramatically different effects results from the assessment of the thermodynamic stability of the antisite chains and contrasting attractive/repulsive interactions of vacancies with the chains.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multifunctional fiber-reinforced composites for passive sensing and energy harvesting with enhanced mechanical performance

Fiber-reinforced polymer composites (FRPCs) are valid alternatives to metals, especially in the aerospace industry, for their superior strength-to-weight ratio. FRPCs are generally manufactured by stacking layers of fibers and infusing them with epoxy-based adhesives to result in laminates. Such layer-by-layer structure often ensues a poor interlaminar property of the composites. Additionally, FRPCs can sustain complex damage modes because of their inherent anisotropic characteristics. For example, delamination can occur due to low-velocity impact at a subsurface level, which can result in premature catastrophic failures if undetected. Thus, structural monitoring is crucial to identify such damage. Point-based sensors (e.g., strain gauges, accelerometers, among many) can be embedded in the FRPCs for structural monitoring. However, their electrical power demand often embroils their usage. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to design and implement multifunctional composites that can simultaneously perform passive sensing and energy harvesting while exhibiting better mechanical performance. Previous research efforts have demonstrated that a continuous feed-through deposition of functional materials on fiber surfaces simultaneously enhanced the mechanical and sensing properties of the FRPCs. This study explores a similar approach to encode passive sensing and energy harvesting properties in the FRPCs by integrating ferroelectric microparticles on the fiber surfaces. Upon ensuring their superior interlaminar shear strength, sensing and energy harvesting properties were characterized through experimental studies. The outcome is a multifunctional composite fabricated by coating the fibers with functional microparticles through a high throughput, scalable, and low-cost approach that enables passive sensing, energy harvesting, and improved mechanical performance.

Gupta, Sumit↗

DOE OSTI2021

Few-shot Learning for Post-disaster Structure Damage Assessment

Automating post-disaster damage assessment with remote sensing data is critical for faster surveys of structures impacted by natural disasters. One significant obstacle to training state-of-the-art deep neural networks to support this automation is that large quantities of labelled data are often required. However, obtaining those labels is particularly unrealistic to support post-disaster damage assessment in a timely manner. Few-shot learning methods could help to mitigate this by reducing the amount of labelled data required to successfully train a model while achieving satisfactory results. To this end, we explore a feature reweighting method to the YOLOv3 object detection architecture to achieve few-shot learning of damage assessment models on the xBD dataset. Our results show that the feature reweighting approach yield improved mAP over the baseline with significantly fewer labelled samples. In addition, we use t-SNE to analyze the class-specific reweighting vectors generated by the reweighting module in order to evaluate their inter-class and intra-class similarity. We find that the vectors form clusters based on class, and that these clusters overlap with visually similar classes. Those results show the potential to employ this few-shot learning strategy for rapid damage assessment with post-event remote sensing images.

Bowman, Jordan↗

DOE OSTI2020

Projected changes to severe thunderstorm environments as a result of twenty-first century warming from RegCM CORDEX-CORE simulations

Hazardous weather related to the occurrence of severe thunderstorms including tornadoes, high-winds, and hail cause significant damage globally to life and property every year. Yet the impact on these storms from a warming climate remains a difficult task due to their transient nature. Here, we investigate the change in large-scale environments in which severe thunderstorms form during twenty-first century warming (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) in a group of RegCM CORDEX-CORE simulations. Severe potential is measured in terms of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and vertical wind-shear during the severe seasons in three regions which are known to currently be prone to severe hazards: North America, subtropical South America, and eastern India and Bangladesh. In every region, environments supportive for severe thunderstorms are projected to increase during the warm season months in both the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios during the twenty-first century. The number of days supportive for severe thunderstorms increases by several days per season over the vast majority of each region by the end of the century. Analyzing the CAPE and shear trends during the twenty-first century, we find seasonally and regionally specific changes driving the increased severe potential. Twenty-first century surface warming is clearly driving a robust increase in CAPE in all regions, however poleward displacement of vertical shear in the future leads to the displacement of severe environments over North America and South America. The results found here relate that severe impacts in the future cannot be generalized globally, and that regionally specific changes in vertical shear may drive future movement of regions prone to severe weather.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Summertime ozone pollution in China affected by stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation

In recent years, the near-surface ozone (O 3 ) level has been rising fast in China, with increasing damage to human health and ecosystems. In this study, the impact of stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on interannual variations in summertime tropospheric O 3 over China is investigated based on GEOS-Chem model simulations and satellite retrievals. QBO has a significant positive correlation with near-surface O 3 concentrations over central China (92.5–112.5° E, 26–38° N) when the sea surface temperature (SST) over the eastern tropical Pacific is warmer than normal, with a correlation coefficient of 0.53, but QBO has no significant effect on O 3 under the cold SST anomaly. Compared to the easterly phase of QBO, the near-surface O 3 concentrations have an increase of up to 3 ppb (5% relative to the average) over central China during its westerly phase under the warm SST anomaly. O 3 also increases above the surface and up to the upper troposphere, with a maximum increase of 2–3 ppb (3%–5%) in 850–500 hPa over central China when comparing westerly phase to easterly phase. Process-based analysis and sensitivity simulations suggest that the O 3 increase over central China is mainly attributed to the anomalous downward transport of O 3 during the westerly phase of QBO when a warm SST anomaly occurs in the eastern tropical Pacific, while the local chemical reactions and horizontal transport processes partly offset the O 3 increase. This work suggests a potentially important role of QBO and the related vertical transport process in affecting near-surface O 3 air quality, with an indication for O 3 pollution prediction and prevention.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic Properties of FeCrMnNi, a High Entropy Alloy

High entropy alloys (HEAs) represent a new class of materials that potentially possess an ideal combination of high strength and ductility and may be candidate materials that can withstand high amounts of damage before failure, especially under extreme conditions. To this end, a series of shock/spall loading experiments were conducted on an Fe/Cr/Mn/Ni HEA to assess not only its equation of state (EOS) but also its resistance to damage and failure. A single-stage light gas gun was used to conduct a series of flyer plate symmetric impact experiments coupled with recovery of the samples for post-mortem microstructural analysis to obtain fundamental understanding regarding the damage morphology. Our results show that the measured EOS for this alloy was in reasonable agreement with an estimated Hugoniot value. Additionally, the spall strength of these alloys was found to vary between 1.4 and 1.9 GPa within the same plate but was comparable to other iron-based conventional alloys. DOE/NV/03624--1059

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Lattice response to ambient self-irradiation of δ-phase 239 Pu-Ga alloys exposed to cryogenic temperatures

Self-irradiation in plutonium is a continuous process that introduces radiation damage ranging from point defects to nanoscale radiation damage as well as decay daughter product impurities that require to be accommodated by the host material. These changes are affecting the structure and properties of the material by lattice swelling, mechanical strengthening, and other alterations. X-ray diffraction and dilatometry studies have shown that the room temperature self-irradiation of δ-phase Pu-Ga alloys (2 and 7 at%Ga) results in swelling of the lattice that saturates after 0.1–0.2 displacement per atom (dpa) of accumulated lattice damage. Here, for a better understanding of these self- irradiation processes, defect accumulation and damage evolution, this time-of-flight neutron diffraction study investigates the impact of ambient self-irradiation effects on the structural evolution of δ-phase 239 Pu-Ga alloys exposed to cryogenic temperatures (<120 K), associated with a varied history of storage time and thermal treatments. Two key behaviors were observed in the lattice evolution after exposure to cryogenic temperatures with respect to room-temperature accumulated self-irradiation damage. Samples with no self- irradiation damage accumulation under ambient conditions showed swelling of the lattice at the end of the measurement, while samples that accumulated significant self-irradiation damage under ambient conditions showed only a partial recovery of the lattice parameter value upon completion of the measurements (cooling followed by heating back to room temperature). Possible causes of the behavior are proposed, and their associated effects are discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Towards the ionizing radiation induced bond dissociation mechanism in oxygen, water, guanine and DNA fragmentation: a density functional theory simulation

The radiation-induced damages in bio-molecules are ubiquitous processes in radiotherapy and radio-biology, and critical to space projects. In this study, we present a precise quantification of the fragmentation mechanisms of deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) and the molecules surrounding DNA such as oxygen and water under non-equilibrium conditions using the first-principle calculations based on density functional theory (DFT). Our results reveal the structural stability of DNA bases and backbone that withstand up to a combined threshold of charge and hydrogen abstraction owing to simultaneously direct and indirect ionization processes. We show the hydrogen contents of the molecules significantly control the stability in the presence of radiation. This study provides comprehensive information on the impact of the direct and indirect induced bond dissociations and DNA damage and introduces a systematic methodology for fine-tuning the input parameters necessary for the large-scale Monte Carlo simulations of radio-biological responses and mitigation of detrimental effects of ionizing radiation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Microscopic assessment of ASR-affected concrete under confinement conditions

The Damage Rating Index (DRI), a semi-quantitative microscopic procedure, has been successfully used to describe alkali-silica reaction (ASR) damage development of concrete under “free expansion” conditions. Yet, the confinement impact on ASR-induced cracks' generation and propagation has not been fully investigated. This work aims to understand the influence of confinement on ASR development through the DRI. Eighteen concrete blocks incorporating a highly reactive coarse aggregate and distinct reinforcement configurations were manufactured, stored in conditions enabling ASR development, and monitored over time. Two expansion levels were selected for analysis (0.08% and 0.15%) and once reached, cores were extracted from three different directions (longitudinal, transverse and vertical) and the DRI conducted on those. Results demonstrate that ASR-induced expansion and deterioration change according to the direction and confinement configuration. Moreover, distinct crack features and orientations are generated in confined concrete, which attests that ASR displays different damage mechanisms under free and confinement conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Radiation Damage Analysis of FNSF Components Using McCad and MCNP

The Fusion Energy System Studies Fusion Nuclear Science Facility (FESS-FNSF) concept represents a transitional step between ITER and a commercial fusion power plant. The FNSF is a conceptualized D-T fueled tokamak with 518 MW of fusion power that has been extensively used to explore and optimize design features. The energetic 14.1-MeV neutrons can produce significant localized heating and activations, and can cause damage to plasma-facing components, which can determine maintenance/outage scheduling needs and also impact the lifetime of the device as a whole. This study illustrates a neutronics analysis that was conducted on a 22.5-degree symmetric sector of the FNSF with the goal of understanding the neutron heating and radiation damage that can be characterized by quantifying the displacements per atom (dpa). Concurrently, this study also focused on the development of analysis capabilities by converting a three-dimensional computer-aided design model of the FNSF into MCNP6.2 input using the McCad code. Accordingly, some confirmatory results on tritium production and the tritium breeding ratio (TBR) are provided to support model validation. The results produced by MCNP6.2 simulations showed that the highest heating and damage occurred in the outboard region, which concentrated approximately 290 MW of the total nuclear heating, in contrast to 97 MW within the inboard region. These results are consistent with previous studies that employed earlier versions of the FNSF concept and different modeling approaches. Furthermore, this study also provides additional details on neutron wall loading, as well as total heating from neutrons and gammas, results which show the total heating of the device (16 sectors) is approximately 477.83 ± 0.80% MW, indicating a neutron energy multiplication factor of 1.15. Additionally, the capability to calculate hydrogen and helium production, as well as dpa, is illustrated. Finally, the neutronics effects of using alternative materials to tungsten carbide were evaluated for the vacuum vessel, low-temperature shield, and structural ring components, which showed that compounds like YH 2 , Mg(BH 4 ) 2 , and ZrH 2 could reduce the total heating on the magnet and also reduce the TBR.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Life cycle analysis of a hydrogen production system based on solid oxide electrolysis cells integrated with different energy and wastewater sources

Hydrogen production via water electrolysis is a promising and evolving technology. The solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) is one of the several technologies for this purpose. They are alternatives to the traditional hydrogen production from fossil fuels to enhance global energy decarbonization. However, in the bid for sustainability and a green economy, these technologies are not free from causing some environmental burdens. Using life cycle assessment (LCA), the greenhouse gas emission and degree of environmental impacts by these technologies can be identified and measured throughout their lifespan. This study addresses how to quantify these CO 2 emission impacts for an electrolytic system with different energy sources. The LCA of a novel integrated hydrogen production SOEC system with energy from solar photovoltaic and bituminous powerplant is performed using simaPro, the leading global LCA solution software. Measuring the environmental impact of the electrolytic operation in terms of weight, the bituminous powerplant poses damage which is, on average 700% more than solar PV. The thermal-to-hydrogen efficiency of the SOEC system is 56%, and a probable 28% reduction in carbon footprint with heat integration. The steam generation and the manufacturing of the SOEC have a very high environmental impact potential on the system. Here, we recommend LCA and net energy analysis is carried out for every new hydrogen technology and adequate comparison to enhance sustainable and green economy.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2023

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Recovery Tool)

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Restoration Tool): Each year hurricanes and tropical storms in the United States damage critical infrastructure assets, disrupt the services they provide, and cause millions to billions of dollars in economic impacts due to extended recovery times. The Storm-DEPART tool and analytical output enable more impactful data-driven decision-making capabilities and strengthen national-level disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. Storm-DEPART, built through multi-month collaboration between Entergy and INL, combines Entergy’s critical infrastructure inventory data with weather forecasts to predict damages to Electric utility’s assets due to natural disasters and the estimated recovery support needed, including time, materials, and resource allocation. In the event of an approaching hurricane, this innovative solution can assess potential damage to power generation capacity, transmission grids, distribution networks, and communications assets from wind bands, storm surge, and flooding. With more effective predictions, Entergy can more efficiently allocate resources to mitigate impacts and optimize recovery for customers. Storm-DEPART also allows Electric utilities the ability to apply a planning scenario and model expected damage to better inform infrastructure restoration needs leading to enhance system resiliency. The technology is fully transferrable to other electric utilities with the same damage estimating challenges. The INL team is working on the evolution of Storm-DEPART to include ice event damage prediction framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Recovery Tool)

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Linkages between riverine flooding risk and economic damage over the continental United States

Economic damages from riverine flooding are expected to grow because of climate change. Yet, there are few 7 studies analyzing flooding damages in the U.S. that clearly measure the roles of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability 8 separately and locally. A lack of this knowledge prohibits spatially detailed predictions of future damages. By being 9 able to separate into these three risk factors, we provide all necessary inputs for uncertainty analysis of the flooding-10 damages forecasts that can incorporate new predictive scenarios for each component. To analyze the flooding risk 11 factors of non-coastal counties within the contiguous U.S. between 1999-2018, we gathered information on (1) 12 property and human damages from flooding, (2) maximum annual river discharge, (3) the number of housing units 13 and the years in which they were built, and (4) the incidence of flooding events. We used the method of trimmed 14 least absolute deviated and trimmed least square estimators to obtain the individual impact of hazard, exposure, and 15 vulnerability in the context of censored flooding damages for panel data. The resulting estimates indicate that 16 exposure has been the main driver of flooding risk for most counties in the U.S. Here, we use these estimates to describe 17 the main source of flooding risk for non-coastal counties for the 1999-2018 period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗