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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2001

Application of Remote Sensing to Assess the Impact of Short Term Climate Variability on Coastal Sedimentation

The University of Wisconsin and Louisiana State University have teamed to study the forcing of winter season cold frontal wind systems on sediment distribution patterns and geomorphology in the Louisiana coastal zone. Wind systems associated with cold fronts have been shown to modify coastal circulation and resuspend sediments along the microtidal Louisiana coast. The assessment includes quantifying the influence of cumulative winter season atmospheric forcing (through surface wind observations) from year to year in response to short term climate variability, such as El Nino events. A correlation between winter cyclone frequency and the strength of El Nino events has been suggested. The atmospheric forcing data are being correlated to geomorphic measurements along western Louisiana's prograding muddy coast. Remote sensing data is being used to map and track sediment distribution patterns for various wind conditions. Transferring a suspended sediment concentration (SSC) algorithm to EOS MODIS observations will enable estimates of SSC in case 2 waters over the global domain. Progress in Year 1 of this study has included data collection and analysis of wind observations for atmospheric forcing characterization, a field activity (TX-2001) to collect in situ water samples with co-incident remote sensing measurements from the NASA ER-2 based MODIS Airborne Simulator (MAS) and the EOS Terra based MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments, aerial photography and of sediment burial pipe field measurements along the prograding muddy Chenier Plain coast of western Louisiana for documenting coastal change in that dynamic region, and routine collection of MODIS 250 in resolution data for monitoring coastal sediment patterns. The data sets are being used in a process to transfer an SSC estimation algorithm to the MODIS platform. Work is underway on assessing coastal transport for the winter 2000-01 season. Water level data for use in a Geomorphic Impact Index, which relates wind energy, water level conditions, and geomorphic change along the microtidal western Louisiana coastline is being assembled.

Moeller, Christopher C.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of a Translational Model to Assess the Impact of Opioid Overdose and Naloxone Dosing on Respiratory Depression and Cardiac Arrest

In response to a surge of deaths from synthetic opioid overdoses, there have been increased efforts to distribute naloxone products in community settings. Prior research has assessed the effectiveness of naloxone in the hospital setting; however, it is challenging to assess naloxone dosing regimens in the community/first‐responder setting, including reversal of respiratory depression effects of fentanyl and its derivatives (fentanyls). Here, we describe the development and validation of a mechanistic model that combines opioid mu receptor binding kinetics, opioid agonist and antagonist pharmacokinetics, and human respiratory and circulatory physiology, to evaluate naloxone dosing to reverse respiratory depression. Validation supports our model, which can quantitatively predict displacement of opioids by naloxone from opioid mu receptors in vitro , hypoxia‐induced cardiac arrest in vivo , and opioid‐induced respiratory depression in humans from different fentanyls. After validation, overdose simulations were performed with fentanyl and carfentanil followed by administration of different intramuscular naloxone products. Carfentanil induced more cardiac arrest events and was more difficult to reverse than fentanyl. Opioid receptor binding data indicated that carfentanil has substantially slower dissociation kinetics from the opioid receptor compared with nine other fentanyls tested, which likely contributes to the difficulty in reversing carfentanil. Administration of the same dose of naloxone intramuscularly from two different naloxone products with different formulations resulted in differences in the number of virtual patients experiencing cardiac arrest. This work provides a robust framework to evaluate dosing regimens of opioid receptor antagonists to reverse opioid‐induced respiratory depression, including those caused by newly emerging synthetic opioids.

Pharmacology & Pharmacy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the Impact of Energy Transition Initiatives on the Policy Cost of Saudi Arabia's Net-Zero Ambition

Saudi Arabia's ambitious goal to achieve a net-zero economy by 2060 offers a unique opportunity to diversify away from fossil fuels while fostering long-term economic resilience and sustainability. Crucial to this transition are energy policies that guide the Kingdom from a fossil fuel-based economy toward carbon neutrality. This study uses GCAM-KSA, a multi-sectoral integrated assessment model tailored to Saudi Arabia's economic and energy systems, to evaluate the impact of early energy transition initiatives on the policy costs of achieving the Kingdom's net-zero target. These initiatives include ongoing and proposed energy efficiency measures, renewable energy deployment, and fuel displacement targets. The study highlights that early implementation of these initiatives can significantly reduce barriers to adopting low-carbon technologies, ultimately lowering the economic burden of achieving the net-zero goal. Compared to a delayed implementation scenario, early action reduces long-term policy costs by 38–72% over the period from 2025 to 2060, driven by accelerated energy system transformation. These findings provide valuable insights into how Saudi Arabia's energy policies can mitigate economic challenges, promote economic diversification, and contribute to global emission reductions, reinforcing the Kingdom's transition to a sustainable net-zero economy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2020

Assessing the Impact of Soil Layer Depth Specification on the Observability of Modeled Soil Moisture and Brightness Temperature

The utility of hydrologic land surface models (LSMs) can be enhanced by using information from observational platforms, but mismatches between the two are common.This study assesses the degree to which model agreement with observations (observability) is affected by two mechanisms in particular: 1) physical incongruities between the support volumes being characterized and 2) inadequateor inconsistent parameterizations of physical processes. The Noah and Noah-MP LSMs by default characterize surface soil moisture (SSM) in the top 10 cm of the soil column. This depth may be reasonable when comparing against soil moisture from in situ probes centered at 5 cm,but it is notably different from the 5 cm (or less) sensing depth of NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite mission. These depth inconsistencies are examined by using thinner model layers in the Noah and Noah-MP LSMs and comparing resultant simulations to in situ and SMAP soil moisture. In addition, a forward radiative transfer model to simulate microwave brightness temperatures (Tbs) is used to facilitate direct comparisons of LSM-based and SMAP-based L-band Tb retrievals. Observability is quantified using Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance values, calculated from empirical cumulative distribution functions of SSM and Tb time series. Experiment results depend on the particular subspace being analyzed (SSM or Tb). This study concludes that therole of increasedsoil layer discretizationon LSM observability is secondary to the influence of component parameterizations, the effects of which dominate systematic differences with observations

SMAP↗
NASA NTRS2010

CPO Prediction: Accuracy Assessment and Impact on UT1 Intensive Results

The UT1 Intensive results heavily depend on the celestial pole offset (CPO) model used during data processing. Since accurate CPO values are available with a delay of two to four weeks, CPO predictions are necessarily applied to the UT1 Intensive data analysis, and errors in the predictions can influence the operational UT1 accuracy. In this paper we assess the real accuracy of CPO prediction using the actual IERS and PUL predictions made in 2007-2009. Also, results of operational processing were analyzed to investigate the actual impact of EOP prediction errors on the rapid UT1 results. It was found that the impact of CPO prediction errors is at a level of several microseconds, whereas the impact of the inaccuracy in the polar motion prediction may be about one order of magnitude larger for ultra-rapid UT1 results. The situation can be amended if the IERS Rapid solution will be updated more frequently.

Malkin, Zinovy↗
NASA NTRS2016

Crop Model Improvement Reduces the Uncertainty of the Response to Temperature of Multi-Model Ensembles

To improve climate change impact estimates and to quantify their uncertainty, multi-model ensembles (MMEs) have been suggested. Model improvements can improve the accuracy of simulations and reduce the uncertainty of climate change impact assessments. Furthermore, they can reduce the number of models needed in a MME. Herein, 15 wheat growth models of a larger MME were improved through re-parameterization and/or incorporating or modifying heat stress effects on phenology, leaf growth and senescence, biomass growth, and grain number and size using detailed field experimental data from the USDA Hot Serial Cereal experiment (calibration data set). Simulation results from before and after model improvement were then evaluated with independent field experiments from a CIMMYT worldwide field trial network (evaluation data set). Model improvements decreased the variation (10th to 90th model ensemble percentile range) of grain yields simulated by the MME on average by 39% in the calibration data set and by 26% in the independent evaluation data set for crops grown in mean seasonal temperatures greater than 24 C. MME mean squared error in simulating grain yield decreased by 37%. A reduction in MME uncertainty range by 27% increased MME prediction skills by 47%. Results suggest that the mean level of variation observed in field experiments and used as a benchmark can be reached with half the number of models in the MME. Improving crop models is therefore important to increase the certainty of model-based impact assessments and allow more practical, i.e. smaller MMEs to be used effectively.

damage assessment↗
DOE OSTI2024

Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 degrees C or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Under baseline projections (i.e., no decarbonization goals), neither process reaches parity with the incumbent technology across several environmental metrics. Under the decarbonization scenarios, the underlying sectoral shifts result in declining impacts over time, compared to 2020 levels, except for metal depletion levels, which increase. The background shifts postulate a heavily decarbonized economy and energy system, which help technologies reach parity with SMR between 2040-2050 (RCP2.6) and 2030-2040 (RCP1.9) for global warming. Despite declines across several other metrics over time, neither PtH2 technology break even with SMR by 2100 besides for global warming.

decarbonizing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics. The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Under baseline projections (i.e., no decarbonization goals), neither process reaches parity with the incumbent technology across several environmental metrics. Under the decarbonization scenarios, the underlying sectoral shifts result in declining impacts over time, compared to 2020 levels, except for metal depletion levels, which increase. The background shifts postulate a heavily decarbonized economy and energy system, which help technologies reach parity with SMR between 2040-2050 (RCP2.6) and 2030-2040 (RCP1.9) for global warming. Despite declines across several other metrics over time, neither PtH2 technology break even with SMR by 2100 besides for global warming.

decarbonizing↗
DOE OSTI2024

LiAISON (Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models) [SWR-24-01]

We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE)7. We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Under baseline projections (i.e., no decarbonization goals), neither process reaches parity with the incumbent technology across several environmental metrics. Under the decarbonization scenarios, the underlying sectoral shifts result in declining impacts over time, compared to 2020 levels, except for metal depletion levels, which increase. The background shifts postulate a heavily decarbonized economy and energy system, which help technologies reach parity with SMR between 2040-2050 (RCP2.6) and 2030-2040 (RCP1.9) for global warming. Despite declines across several other metrics over time, neither PtH2 technology break even with SMR by 2100 besides for global warming. Scientific publication available here: https://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/acs.est.2c04246

Ghosh, Tapajyoti↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the impact of climate change on rainfall-triggered landslides: a case study in California

Landslides are widespread natural hazards which take a heavy toll on lives, property, and infrastructure each year. In January 2023 and 2024, widespread landslides occurred in California as a result of extreme winter precipitation. Estimating the regional evolution of landslide hazard in a changing climate is essential for adaptation planning and risk mitigation efforts. The complex effects of climate change on landslide hazard, however, are poorly understood. Here, we use climate and landslide observations to develop a novel data-driven approach for landslide susceptibility assessment under historical and future climate conditions. We apply this framework to investigate the evolution of landslide susceptibility in California and its impacts on the roadway system based on downscaled climate projections under moderate and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. On average, the results indicate an increase in landslide susceptibility through 2100 in regions where historical susceptibility is moderate to very high. Although the spatio-temporal variations in landslide susceptibility are sensitive to climate model uncertainties in predicting extreme rainfall, the direst impacts are largely circumvented in lower emission scenarios.

Climate Change↗
NASA NTRS2019

MultiLayer Clustered Sampling (MLCS) technique for near-earth asteroid impact hazard assessment

Because of planetary encounters, the motion of near-Earth asteroids is chaotic and small differences in the initial conditions tend to diverge exponentially. Linear approximations for propagating orbital uncertainties can lead to inaccurate estimates of the probability of an Earth collision. We present a novel fully nonlinear strategy for estimating the probability of an asteroid impact using sequential Monte Carlo layers. The method first explores a low-resolution layer to locate potentially relevant regions. Then, we conduct localized searches on deeper layers with higher resolution. The method retains the accuracy of brute-force Monte Carlo sampling while reducing the computational cost by only sampling relevant regions.

Farnocchia, Davide↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards Prospective LCA Using Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) Framework for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 Degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Additionally we compare our results by linking two other prospective models with LiAISON - GCAM(Global Change Assessment Model) and ReEDS (Regional Energy Deployment System) to analyze the effect of changing background scenarios using varying predictions in life cycle analysis.

emissions↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Isotopic, Chemical, and Molecular Studies of Insoluble Organic Matter and C-Rich Presolar Grains in Murchison and Sutter'S Mill: Assessing the Impact of XCT and Preparation for Bennu Samples

Spectral observations of B-type asteroid Bennu by the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft show affinities to CM-type carbonaceous chondrites, being organic-rich [1, 2] with abundant hydrated minerals [3-5]. Here we analyzed acid insoluble residues from Bennu analog chondrites Murchison (CM2) and Sutter’s Mill (C) to assess the effects of parent body alteration on the insoluble organic matter (IOM) chemistry and isotopic compositions, as well as abundances of C-rich presolar grains. Because Bennu samples may undergo X-ray computed tomography (XCT) imaging during preliminary examination, it is necessary to understand the effects of irradiation, if any, on IOM. We therefore also analyzed a residue produced from XCT-imaged Murchison powder to assess any X-ray damage.

A. N. Nguyen↗
NASA NTRS2006

Remote Sensing and Spatial Growth Modeling Coupled with Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 80 percent of the world s population will live in cities. Directly aligned with the expansion of cities is urban sprawl. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Strategies that can be directly or indirectly implemented to help remediate air quality problems in cities and that can be accepted by political decision makers and the general public are now being explored to help bring down air pollutants and improve air quality. The urban landscape is inherently complex and this complexity is not adequately captured in air quality models, particularly the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone pollutant levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to the meteorology component of the CMAQ model focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include "business as usual" and "smart growth" scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how ozone and air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the (CMAQ) modeling schemes. Use of these data have been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared with USGS 1km land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for future scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission, the regional planning agency for the area. This allows the State Environmental Protection agency to evaluate how these transportation plans will affect future air quality. The coupled SGM and air quality modeling approach provides insight on what the impacts of Atlanta s growth will be on the local and regional environment and exists as a mechanism that can be used by policy makers to make rationale decisions on urban growth and sustainability for the metropolitan area in the future.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Conclusion: Major Findings and Future Activities.

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) incorporates a number of major advances in the way that climate impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation are being simulated. At its core is a protocol approach that results in impact assessments being more scientifically credible and thus ultimately having greater value to the wide range of agricultural stakeholders. Moreover, the use of the protocol approach enables closer scrutiny and intercomparison of models and methods so that they can be improved over time. By creating a truly trans-disciplinary, systems-based approach, AgMIP impact assessments and evaluation of adaptations become useful to agricultural decision-makers at multiple scales. The chapters in this two-part set demonstrate the use of this approach and represent early steps towards the full realization of these new methods and their application.

damage assessment↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing the Impact of a Forest Canopy on Near-Surface Wind Statistics

Representing the forest canopy in atmospheric numerical models should improve simulated winds within and above the canopy up to a few hundred meters above the ground. Here, in this study, we implement a forest canopy parameterization into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model in a large-eddy simulation (LES) mode by applying drag forces across multiple layers within the canopy height. We use unique observations from the Lidar Experiments for Assessing Flow over Forests (LEAFF) field campaign at the Wind River Experimental Forest (WREF) in the U.S. Pacific Northwest to evaluate model performance. In a 2-day case study, the canopy parameterization improved wind predictions both within and above the canopy, particularly during the daytime and at finer grid resolution. Without it, winds were frequently overpredicted above the canopy. Similarly, derived quantities such as the wind shear index also yielded estimates closer to observations with the canopy parameterization implemented. These findings suggest that representing the canopy using drag forces alone can improve simulated mean winds up to 200 m above the surface. Furthermore, second-order statistical moments of wind were more sensitive to canopy density than first-order moments, especially during the daytime. This increased sensitivity and the improved daytime performance in wind speed—evidenced by the lowest bias from observations (3% compared to 20% over diurnal cycle)—imply that winds above the canopy layer are strongly influenced by how well turbulence above the canopy is modeled. The results of this study can serve as a foundation for parameterizing forest canopy effects in coarser weather forecast models.

Energy - Wind↗
NASA NTRS1986

Secondary impact hazard assessment

A series of light gas gun shots (4 to 7 km/sec) were performed with 5 mg nylon and aluminum projectiles to determine the size, mass, velocity, and spatial distribution of spall and ejecta from a number of graphite/epoxy targets. Similar determinations were also performed on a few aluminum targets. Target thickness and material were chosen to be representative of proposed Space Station structure. The data from these shots and other information were used to predict the hazard to Space Station elements from secondary particles resulting from impacts of micrometeoroids and orbital debris on the Space Station. This hazard was quantified as an additional flux over and above the primary micrometeoroid and orbital debris flux that must be considered in the design process. In order to simplify the calculations, eject and spall mass were assumed to scale directly with the energy of the projectile. Other scaling systems may be closer to reality. The secondary particles considered are only those particles that may impact other structure immediately after the primary impact. The addition to the orbital debris problem from these primary impacts was not addressed. Data from this study should be fed into the orbital debris model to see if Space Station secondaries make a significant contribution to orbital debris. The hazard to a Space Station element from secondary particles above and beyond the micrometeoroid and orbital debris hazard is categorized in terms of two factors: (1) the 'view factor' of the element to other Space Station structure or the geometry of placement of the element, and (2) the sensitivity to damage, stated in terms of energy. Several example cases were chosen, the Space Station module windows, windows of a Shuttle docked to the Space Station, the habitat module walls, and the photovoltaic solar cell arrays. For the examples chosen the secondary flux contributed no more than 10 percent to the total flux (primary and secondary) above a given calculated critical energy. A key assumption in these calculations is that above a certain critical energy, significant damage will be done. This is not true for all structures. Double-walled, bumpered structures are an example for which damage may be reduced as energy goes up. The critical energy assumption is probably conservative, however, in terms of secondary damage. To understand why the secondary impacts seem to, in general, contribute less than 10 percent of the flux above a given critical energy, consider the case of a meteoroid impact of a given energy on a fixed, large surface. This impact results in a variety of secondary particles, all of which have much less energy than the original impact. Conservation of energy prohibits any other situation. Thus if damage is linked to a critical energy of a particle, the primary flux will always deliver particles of much greater energy. Even if all the secondary particles impacted other Space Station structures, none would have a kinetic energy more than a fraction of the primary impact energy.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the Impact of Large Removable Beryllium Reflector Experiments on HFIR Performance and Safety Metrics

This study investigated the effect of various removable beryllium (RB) experiment configurations on High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) metrics to address increasing interest in these facilities for materials and fuels irradiation research. The RB reflector contains eight large and four small irradiation experiment facilities that offer excellent neutron flux conditions to perform fission and fusion reactor materials and fuels irradiation research. This work aims to outline acceptable RB configurations based on safety, performance, and programmatic metrics. This study assessed experiment effects on reactivity, cycle length, fission rate density distributions, and neutron flux distributions using the Shift, HFIRCON, and SCALE ORIGEN codes. Initial evaluations focused on generic experiment materials including aluminum plugs, stainless steel plugs, molybdenum plugs, and aluminum plugs with gadolinium shields. Subsequent analyses of MiniFuel experiments were performed to evaluate a heterogenous experiment, consisting of a more complex geometry and bearing several materials, and to test the correlations developed with the generic materials on a real experiment. Furthermore, the effects of neutron poison concentrations in the standard beryllium plugs were evaluated. When assuming a reference RB configuration with eight large fresh beryllium plugs, perturbed configurations with three aluminum plugs, one stainless steel plug, one molybdenum plug, one gadolinium-shielded aluminum plug, and one MiniFuel experiment resulted in a cycle length reduction of less than 1.3 days, the current threshold before requiring additional approvals. Configurations with five aluminum plugs, one stainless steel plug, one molybdenum plug, one gadolinium-shielded aluminum plug, and two MiniFuel experiments meet the 1.3 day limit if irradiated beryllium plugs are considered. Fuel element fission rate density distributions remained within safety limits, with maximum local increases under 9%. Neutron flux calculations revealed large thermal flux depressions inside and around the perturbed RB facilities, while epithermal and fast neutron fluxes increased because of reduced neutron moderation by the perturbed materials. These findings provide valuable guidance for optimizing RB configurations to balance safety and performance at HFIR.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗