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At least 199 records · Page 11

Discovering the Multisectoral Impacts of Global Energy Sector Outcomes Through Multiple Ensemble Aggregation Measures

Understanding complex human-Earth system interactions often involves analyzing large scenario ensembles that encompass a wide range of plausible futures. These ensembles often require aggregation to summarize information based on specific criteria or conditions. However, previous research using global change scenario ensembles has largely overlooked how the choice of aggregation method influences the interpretation of results. To address this gap, we leverage a large ensemble data set designed to capture broad energy system dynamics generated using the Global Change Analysis Model. We first explore how energy-related uncertainties are propagated to both global and regional water-energy-food sectors. We then conduct a rank correlation analysis across seven ensemble aggregation measures and demonstrate the need to consider multiple measures in global change scenarios. Our results suggest that global water and food sector outcomes in the 21st century vary widely depending on different scenario assumptions. The global energy productivity is projected to improve by the end of the century across all scenarios. Moreover, regions facing water scarcity challenges in 2100 do not always overlap with those facing extreme energy and food sector outcomes. Although rank correlations across seven aggregation measures are relatively stable across sectors, we identify cases where relying on a single measure leads to losing critical information in the full ensemble. Reliance on a single aggregation measure can distort the interpretation of global change scenario outcomes. Instead, adopting multiple ensemble aggregation measures provides a more holistic understanding of global change scenario ensembles.

Kim, Gijoo↗

Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection

The US Western Interconnection is facing unprecedented challenges in the form of less predictable peak demand, increasingly diverse generating resources, and fast-growing loads due to the onset of artificial intelligence, hyperscale computing, and electrification. Projecting where future generation may be developed is critical to maintaining a robust and resilient electric grid under this mounting uncertainty and variability. Using an integrated multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that links a human-Earth systems model, an hourly load model, a geospatial power plant siting model, and an hourly grid operations model, we evaluate the power plant landscape evolution under eight alternative futures between 2020 and 2055. These futures represent a wide but plausible range of atmospheric conditions, emissions constraints, and economic, technological, and population growth assumptions. We find that local-level development can vary substantially both by generation type and capacity buildout across these futures. Specific regions of the Western Interconnection are projected to see large amounts of capacity development regardless of the future scenario. We additionally determine that projected power plant locations are more heavily influenced by the cost to interconnect to the electric grid than the locational energy value.

Mongird, Kendall↗

Air pollution control strategies directly limiting national health damages in the US

Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) from fuel combustion significantly contributes to global and US mortality. Traditional air pollution control strategies typically focus on emission reductions for specific air pollutants or sectors to maintain air pollutant concentrations within acceptable levels. Here we directly set national PM 2.5 mortality cost reduction targets within a global human-earth system model with US state-level energy systems, identifying endogenously the control actions, sectors, and locations that most cost-effectively reduce PM 2.5 mortality. Our results show that substantial health benefits can be cost-effectively achieved by using electricity to replace sources with high primary PM 2.5 emission intensities, including industrial coal, building biomass, and industrial liquids. Increasing the stringency of PM 2.5 reduction targets expedites the phaseout of high emission intensity sources, leading to larger declines in major air pollutant emissions, but very limited co-benefits in reducing CO 2 emissions. Control strategies achieve the greatest mortality cost reductions in the East North Central and Middle Atlantic states.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The NIH Somatic Cell Genome Editing program

The move from reading to writing the human genome offers new opportunities to improve human health. The United States National Institutes of Health (NIH) Somatic Cell Genome Editing (SCGE) Consortium aims to accelerate the development of safer and more-effective methods to edit the genomes of disease-relevant somatic cells in patients, even in tissues that are difficult to reach. Here we discuss the consortium’s plans to develop and benchmark approaches to induce and measure genome modifications, and to define downstream functional consequences of genome editing within human cells. Central to this effort is a rigorous and innovative approach that requires validation of the technology through third-party testing in small and large animals. New genome editors, delivery technologies and methods for tracking edited cells in vivo, as well as newly developed animal models and human biological systems, will be assembled—along with validated datasets—into an SCGE Toolkit, which will be disseminated widely to the biomedical research community. We visualize this toolkit—and the knowledge generated by its applications—as a means to accelerate the clinical development of new therapies for a wide range of conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Activation of CBASS Cap5 endonuclease immune effector by cyclic nucleotides

The bacterial cyclic oligonucleotide-based antiphage signaling system (CBASS) is similar to the cGAS–STING system in humans, containing an enzyme that synthesizes a cyclic nucleotide on viral infection and an effector that senses the second messenger for the antiviral response. Cap5, containing a SAVED domain coupled to an HNH DNA endonuclease domain, is the most abundant CBASS effector, yet the mechanism by which it becomes activated for cell killing remains unknown. We present here high-resolution structures of full-length Cap5 from Pseudomonas syringae (Ps) with second messengers. Here, the key to PsCap5 activation is a dimer-to-tetramer transition, whereby the binding of second messenger to dimer triggers an open-to-closed transformation of the SAVED domains, furnishing a surface for assembly of the tetramer. This movement propagates to the HNH domains, juxtaposing and converting two HNH domains into states for DNA destruction. These results show how Cap5 effects bacterial cell suicide and we provide proof-in-principle data that the CBASS can be extrinsically activated to limit bacterial infections.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NUB1 traps unfolded FAT10 for ubiquitin-independent degradation by the 26S proteasome

The ubiquitin-like modifier FAT10 targets hundreds of proteins in the mammalian immune system to the 26S proteasome for degradation. This degradation pathway requires the cofactor NUB1, yet the underlying mechanisms remain unknown. Here, we reconstituted a minimal in vitro system with human components and revealed that NUB1 uses the intrinsic instability of FAT10 to trap its N-terminal ubiquitin-like domain in an unfolded state and deliver it to the 26S proteasome for engagement, allowing the degradation of FAT10-ylated substrates in a ubiquitin-independent and p97-independent manner. Using hydrogen–deuterium exchange, structural modeling and site-directed mutagenesis, we identified the formation of an intricate complex with FAT10 that activates NUB1 for docking to the 26S proteasome, and our cryo-EM studies visualized the highly dynamic NUB1 complex bound to the proteasomal Rpn1 subunit during FAT10 delivery and the early stages of ATP-dependent degradation. These findings identified a previously unknown mode of cofactor-mediated, ubiquitin-independent substrate delivery to the 26S proteasome that relies on trapping partially unfolded states for engagement by the proteasomal ATPase motor.

Arkinson, Connor↗

A high-fidelity residential building occupancy detection dataset

Abstract This paper describes development of a data acquisition system used to capture a range of occupancy related modalities from single-family residences, along with the dataset that was generated. The publicly available dataset includes: grayscale images at 32-by-32 pixels, captured every second; audio files, which have undergone processing to remove personally identifiable information; indoor environmental readings, captured every ten seconds; and ground truth binary occupancy status. The data acquisition system, coined the mobile human presence detection (HPDmobile) system, was deployed in six homes for a minimum duration of one month each, and captured all modalities from at least four different locations concurrently inside each home. The environmental modalities are available as captured, but to preserve the privacy and identity of the occupants, images were downsized and audio files went through a series of processing steps, as described in this paper. This dataset adds to a very small body of existing data, with applications to energy efficiency and indoor environmental quality.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Global peak water limit of future groundwater withdrawals

Over the past 50 years, humans have extracted the Earth’s groundwater stocks at a steep rate, largely to fuel global agro-economic development. Given society’s growing reliance on groundwater, we explore ‘peak water limits’ to investigate whether, when and where humanity might reach peak groundwater extraction. Using an integrated global model of the coupled human–Earth system, we simulate groundwater withdrawals across 235 water basins under 900 future scenarios of global change over the twenty-first century. Here we find that global non-renewable groundwater withdrawals exhibit a distinct peak-and-decline signature, comparable to historical observations of other depletable resources (for example, minerals), in nearly all (98%) scenarios, peaking on average at 625 km 3 yr -1 around mid-century, followed by a decline through 2100. The peak and decline occur in about one-third (82) of basins, including 21 that may have already peaked, exposing about half (44%) of the global population to groundwater stress. Most of these basins are in countries with the highest current extraction rates, including the United States, Mexico, Pakistan, India, China, Saudi Arabia and Iran. Furthermore, these groundwater-dependent basins will probably face increasing costs of groundwater and food production, suggesting important implications for global agricultural trade and a diminished role for groundwater in meeting global water demands during the twenty-first century.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Dynamic urban land extensification is projected to lead to imbalances in the global land-carbon equilibrium

Abstract Human-Earth System Models and Integrated Assessment Models used to explore the land-atmosphere implications of future land-use transitions generally lack dynamic representation of urban lands. Here, we conduct an experiment incorporating dynamic urbanization in a multisector model framework. We integrate projected dynamic non-urban lands from a multisector model with projected dynamic urban lands from 2015 to 2100 at 1-km resolution to examine 1 st -order implications to the land system, crop production, and net primary production that can arise from the competition over land resources. By 2100, future urban extensification could displace 0.1 to 1.4 million km 2 of agriculture lands, leading to 22 to 310 Mt of compromised corn, rice, soybean, and wheat production. When considering increased corn production required to meet demands by 2100, urban extensification could cut increases in yields by half. Losses in net primary production from displaced forest, grassland, and croplands ranged from 0.24 to 2.24 Gt C yr −1 , potentially increasing land emissions by 1.19 to 6.59 Gt CO 2 yr −1 . Although these estimates do not consider adaptive responses, 1 st -order experiments can elucidate the individual role of sub-sectors that would otherwise be masked by model complexity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reversible parts-per-trillion-level detection of perfluorooctane sulfonic acid in tap water using field-effect transistor sensors

Widespread, persistent and toxic per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) pose a major threat to water systems and human health. Current detection methods are relatively expensive, slow and complex, underscoring the need for more accessible alternatives to meet increasingly stringent PFAS regulations. Here, in this study, we present an ultrasensitive sensing platform for perfluorooctane sulfonic acid detection in tap water with a reporting limit ( ~ 250 parts per quadrillion) lower than the US Environmental Protection Agency’s regulatory standard (4 parts per trillion), using a remote gate field-effect transistor featuring β-cyclodextrin (β-CD)-modified reduced graphene oxide as the sensing membrane. The sensor exhibits excellent selectivity against common inorganic ions, natural organic matter and select organic pollutants in tap water. The reversible and rapid response ( < 2 min) indicates the potential of remote gate field-effect transistor for continuous in-line monitoring. Mechanistic studies using quartz crystal microbalance and molecular dynamics simulations reveal key roles of analyte adsorption and charge properties in sensing performance and offer insights for designing more selective PFAS capture probes.

Wang, Yuqin [University of Chicago, IL (United Sta↗

Assessing the future of global energy-for-water

This study incorporates the energy demands of water abstraction, treatment, distribution, and post-use (wastewater) treatment into the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated human-Earth systems model, and analyzes a range of scenarios that estimate the future evolution of this demand of energy. The study builds on prior research on the historical demands of energy-for-water, fitting these demands of energy into existing nation-level energy balances, where demands for energy-for-water have heretofore been aggregated with other energy use in the commercial and public services, industrial, agricultural, and/or electric power sectors. This development allows for improved projections of future energy demands in general, and in this study, allows for assessment of the energy implications of different scenarios of improvements in water access and water quality that are consistent with the Sustainable Development Goals. In our baseline scenario, energy-for-water approximately doubles from 2010 to 2050, and in the scenario with the greatest level of water access, standards for treatment of wastewater, and irrigation expansion, the consequent energy-for-water demands increase three-fold from 2010 to 2050. Note also that these increases do not consider future scarcity-driven increases in energy requirements per unit of water abstraction, treatment, and distribution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Long-term decarbonization impacts on residential energy security across income groups and US states

Abstract The impact of a transition to a net-zero economy on the residential energy sector across diverse income groups in the US remains uncertain. Here, we employ an integrated human-Earth system model, incorporating an expanded set of ten income groups in the residential energy sector, to examine the distributional impacts of long-term decarbonization scenarios on residential energy security at the state level through 2050. We use multiple metrics of energy security, including energy burden, energy satiation gap, and the distribution of energy service across income groups. Our findings show that the net-zero decarbonization scenarios affect residential energy security differently across income groups, with low-to-mid-income groups experiencing larger negative impacts on the dimensions studied here. Comparatively, climate change impact on residential energy security is minor through 2050 based on our model outcomes. Specifically, the net-zero decarbonization scenarios lead to increased energy burden across all income groups and states in 2050, where the lowest (highest) income group in each state shows an average of 0.6 (0.2) percentage point increase in energy burden, relative to the business-as-usual in 2050. The distribution of energy service consumption across income groups is also slightly more skewed under these scenarios. As incomes grow across all deciles in the future, residential energy security generally improves through 2050. Targeted interventions could mitigate the disproportionate impacts that some groups could incur under a transition to a net-zero economy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Systems of Radiological Protection for Ionizing and Non-Ionizing Radiation

This paper summarizes the presentations and panel discussion held at Plenary Session 1 of the 16th IRPA International Congress/69th Health Physics Society Annual Meeting, in Orlando, FL, in July 2024. Plenary Session 1 discussed the basics of the systems of radiological protection (RP) for ionizing radiation (IR) and non-ionizing radiation (NIR) and included five presentations and a panel discussion. Rodney Croft, Chair of the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP), delivered the first presentation. Croft introduced the System of RP for NIR and provided an overview of ICNIRP’s coverage and current areas of work. Werner Rühm, Chair of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), delivered the second presentation. He gave an overview of the System of RP for IR and covered the key principles of justification, optimization, and dose limitation, including the current plans of ICRP toward the envisaged revision of the System of RP. The third speaker, Sigurður Magnús Magnússon, from the International Radiation Protection Association (IRPA), provided the perspective of the RP professionals on the development of the Systems of RP for IR and NIR. Emilie van Deventer, from the World Health Organization (WHO), presented WHO’s views of both Systems of RP and discussed the relevant current activities of WHO with regard to IR and NIR. Kathryn Higley, President of the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP), delivered the final presentation. Higley outlined the history of NCRP, the differences between ICRP and NCRP, and discussed the role of the NCRP in the System of RP, including NCRP’s role to analyze mechanisms of interaction of NIR with biological systems, including humans. The session concluded with a fruitful panel discussion, where the audience had the opportunity to ask the five invited speakers questions.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Gaussian processes meet NeuralODEs: a Bayesian framework for learning the dynamics of partially observed systems from scarce and noisy data

We present a machine learning framework (GP-NODE) for Bayesian model discovery from partial, noisy and irregular observations of nonlinear dynamical systems. The proposed method takes advantage of differentiable programming to propagate gradient information through ordinary differential equation solvers and perform Bayesian inference with respect to unknown model parameters using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling and Gaussian Process priors over the observed system states. This allows us to exploit temporal correlations in the observed data, and efficiently infer posterior distributions over plausible models with quantified uncertainty. The use of the Finnish Horseshoe as a sparsity-promoting prior for free model parameters also enables the discovery of parsimonious representations for the latent dynamics. A series of numerical studies is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed GP-NODE method including predator–prey systems, systems biology and a 50-dimensional human motion dynamical system. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Data-driven prediction in dynamical systems’.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Real-Time Omnidirectional Stereo Rendering: Generating 360° Surround-View Panoramic Images for Comfortable Immersive Viewing

Surround-view panoramic images and videos have become a popular form of media for interactive viewing on mobile devices and virtual reality headsets. Viewing such media provides a sense of immersion by allowing users to control their view direction and experience an entire environment. When using a virtual reality headset, the level of immersion can be improved by leveraging stereoscopic capabilities. Stereoscopic images are generated in pairs, one for the left eye and one for the right eye, and result in providing an important depth cue for the human visual system. For computer generated imagery, rendering proper stereo pairs is well known for a fixed view. However, it is much more difficult to create omnidirectional stereo pairs for a surround-view projection that work well when looking in any direction. One major drawback of traditional omnidirectional stereo images is that they suffer from binocular misalignment in the peripheral vision as a user's view direction approaches the zenith / nadir (north / south pole) of the projection sphere. This paper presents a real-time geometry-based approach for omnidirectional stereo rendering that fits into the standard rendering pipeline. Our approach includes tunable parameters that enable pole merging - a reduction in the stereo effect near the poles that can minimize binocular misalignment. Results from a user study indicate that pole merging reduces visual fatigue and discomfort associated with binocular misalignment without inhibiting depth perception.

360° panorama↗

Twist again: Dynamically and reversibly controllable chirality in liquid crystalline elastomer microposts

Photoresponsive liquid crystalline elastomers (LCEs) constitute ideal actuators for soft robots because their light-induced macroscopic shape changes can be harnessed to perform specific articulated motions. Conventional LCEs, however, do not typically exhibit complex modes of bending and twisting necessary to perform sophisticated maneuvers. Here, we model LCE microposts encompassing side-chain mesogens oriented along a magnetically programmed nematic director, and azobenzene cross-linkers, which determine the deformations of illuminated posts. On altering the nematic director orientation from vertical to horizontal, the post’s bending respectively changes from light-seeking to light-avoiding. Moreover, both modeling and subsequent experiments show that with the director tilted at 45°, the initially achiral post reversibly twists into a right- or left-handed chiral structure, controlled by the angle of incident light. We exploit this photoinduced chirality to design “chimera” posts (encompassing two regions with distinct director orientations) that exhibit simultaneous bending and twisting, mimicking motions exhibited by the human musculoskeletal system.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Future bioenergy expansion could alter carbon sequestration potential and exacerbate water stress in the United States

The maximum future projected bioenergy expansion potential, in scenarios limiting warming to 2°C or below, is equivalent to half of present-day croplands. We quantify the impacts of large-scale bioenergy expansion against re/afforestation, which remain elusive, using an integrated human-natural system modeling framework with explicit representation of perennial bioenergy crops. The end-of-century net carbon sequestration due to bioenergy deployment coupled with carbon capture and storage largely depends on fossil fuel displacement types, ranging from 11.4 to 31.2 PgC over the conterminous United States. These net carbon sequestration benefits are inclusive of a 10 PgC carbon release due to land use conversions and a 2.4 PgC loss of additional carbon sink capacity associated with bioenergy-driven deforestation. Moreover, nearly one-fourth of U.S. land areas will suffer severe water stress by 2100 due to either reduced availability or deteriorated quality. These broader impacts of bioenergy expansion should be weighed against the costs and benefits of re/afforestation-based strategies.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Retina-inspired narrowband perovskite sensor array for panchromatic imaging

The retina is the essential part of the human visual system that receives light, converts it to neural signal, and transmits to brain for visual recognition. The red, green, and blue (R/G/B) cone retina cells are natural narrowband photodetectors (PDs) sensitive to R/G/B lights. Connecting with these cone cells, a multilayer neuro-network in the retina provides neuromorphic preprocessing before transmitting to brain. Inspired by this sophistication, we develop the narrowband (NB) imaging sensor combining R/G/B perovskite NB sensor array (mimicking the R/G/B photoreceptors) with a neuromorphic algorithm (mimicking the intermediate neural network) for high-fidelity panchromatic imaging. Compared to commercial sensors, we use perovskite “intrinsic” NB PD to exempt the complex optical filter array. In addition, we use an asymmetric device configuration to collect photocurrent without external bias, enabling a power-free photodetection feature. These results display a promising design for efficient and intelligent panchromatic imaging.

42 ENGINEERING↗