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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Apollo Sample 64455: Petrologic and Geochemical Characterization of a Glass-Coated Impact Melt Rock

Introduction and Background: Impact melts are a key product of the impact cratering process. Impact melts can turbulently entrain pre-existing rock fragments, and melt part of those entrained materials until thermal equilibrium is achieved [1–3]. Lunar impact melt rocks are valuable for determining the precise ages of basin-forming and cratering events, which anchor the cratering chronology and dynamics of the entire solar system [4, and references therein]. Additionally, entrained clasts can inform on the petrology and age of crustal materials that predate the melt-forming impact. In lithologies where no pristine samples are available, entrained materials may hold the record of endogenous lunar volatiles, provided we can untangle their impact histories as high temperature impact melt can heat the clasts and may alter their native volatiles or isotopic signatures [5–6]. Here, we characterize an Apollo 16 sample, 64455,70B, in an effort to understand the physical, microstructural, and geochemical consequences of impact melt contact metamorphism. We acquired optical light and x-ray maps of the sample, as well as quantitative analyses via electron probe microanalysis (EPMA). These tasks allow us to better understand the interaction between impact melts and entrained clasts, ultimately closing knowledge gaps in high-temperature impact processing on planetary surfaces. Sample Description: Sample 64455 is an oblong crystalline rock encased in glass to form an egg-like shape [7–8]. The impact melt coating has altered the outer (1 to 2 mm) rind of the crystalline rock and has preserved schlieren. The interior crystalline rock is likely a crystalline impact melt rock based on its bulk Ir content of 2.25 parts per billion [9]. The composition of the impact melt glass rind cannot be solely derived from the crystalline interior, the glassy rind is more aluminous and less magnesian [10]. Neither the crystalline interior nor the glassy rind were radiometrically age dated, although several studies investigated its cosmogenic isotopes and exposure ages, which reveal the sample was exposed on the lunar surface for ~1–2 Ma [11–13]. Preliminary Results: The interior crystalline rock consists primarily of plagioclase with interstitial pyroxene and olivine. Plagioclase grains are zoned and compositions range from An97–89, while pyroxene compositions generally range from En68Fs19Wo13 to En82Fs15Wo3 and olivine are Fo77 to Fo85. Minor phases include Fe-Ni metal, Ca-phosphates, a K- and Si-rich phase, sulfides, and Fe-phosphides. The glass rind contains approximately 44 wt.% SiO2, 25 wt.% Al2O3, 6 wt.% FeO, 8 wt.% MgO, and 14 wt.% CaO, with other oxides at <1 wt.% each, although the composition of the glass becomes more variable closest to the crystalline rock. The rind consists of rounded plagioclase, pyroxene, and olivine crystals with interstitial melt. In some locations, the rounded crystals are surrounded by closely-packed, blade-like crystals, <5 µm in width. These results indicate that the crystalline interior has partially melted where in contact with the high-temperature impact melt and while further investigation is needed, pyroxene may have preferentially melted relative to olivine and plagioclase. Future Work: We plan to conduct electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) mapping in order to determine crystallinity and crystal orientation. Next using transmission electron microscopy (TEM) data in conjunction with EBSD and EPMA information, we will model the diffusion of moderately volatile elements between the melt and remnant crystals.

A C Stadermann↗

DOE OSTI2021

STOCHASTIC OPTIMAL POWER FLOW FOR REAL-TIME MANAGEMENT OF DISTRIBUTED RENEWABLE GENERATION AND DEMAND RESPONSE (Final Report)

To meet the grand challenge of a sustainable energy future, there has been a surge of interest in renewable energy. Today, the uncertainty associated with renewable resources is handled by using operating reserves. The high penetration of renewable resources, however, introduces difficult-to-control dynamics and challenges for power system operation. Decision support tools are necessary at the bulk system operational level to recognize and efficiently utilize renewable resources and distributed demand response products in concert with traditional grid resources. It is envisaged that responsive load can potentially have very significant cost advantages over either spinning or non-spinning ramping reserve. Critical decisions are made during hour(s)-ahead and real-time power system operation regarding the commitment and dispatch of generators to ensure power delivery is both reliable and economic. These decisions are typically made by a security constrained optimal flow, which determines future generator commitments, dispatches, and ensures adequate reserves are available in the event of a contingency (unexpected outage) or if future system conditions deviate from forecasts. However, security has been always based on a pre-specified subset of contingency constraints whose enforcement does not guarantee security under all possible future possibilities while also giving little or no weight to the likelihood of each contingent event or the severity of its consequences. Existing tools, which are based exclusively on deterministic optimization models, do not yield optimal operational decisions to address these new challenges, in terms of both reliability and cost-effectiveness. This project has focused on developing a stochastic optimal power flow (SOPF) framework, which integrates renewable resource uncertainty, load uncertainty, distributed storage (DS), demand response (DR) products, in a holistic manner to address the uncertainty associated with ever-increasing renewable resources, along with the inclusion of distributed demand response products in future power systems. A proof-of-concept problem was created using the Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland (PJM) power system network. Synthetic wind generation was added to the system to simulate 50% wind penetration. A 1-hour test of SOPF operation indicated more than 6% operational cost savings. The project continued by adding the Midwestern Independent System Operator (MISO) as a partner, with focus shifting from SOPF to Stochastic Look-Ahead Unit Commitment (SLAC). Unlike PJM, MISO is faced with significant renewable energy resources within its footprint and is challenged with substantial uncertainty in its operations. The SLAC distinguishes itself from existing tools that operators use. At best, today’s tools solve two to three cases independently, where one or two system parameters, such as forecasted load level (e.g., a low, base, and high forecast), are varied and the resulting scenarios are analyzed independently. The stochastic-based optimization of SLAC leverages statistical information from an ensemble of potential operational scenarios and their respective likelihood. The SLAC output can be translated into valuable information to the operator such as suggested commitments, optimal scheduling and dispatch of resources, reserve requirements at both locational and zonal resolutions, ramping availability and requirements, availability of demand response including operational guidance concerning the near-term and real-time coordination between distributed energy resources, and utilization of distributed storage resources. The developed SOPF/SLAC tool, a stand-alone tool compatible with existing EMSs, will provide system operators with unprecedented visibility, flexibility and predictability to these resources and operational guidance concerning the real-time coordination between DERs and DR/DS products. The game changing and practical impact of this disruptive technology will be dramatic and will usher in a new era in the electric power industry, wherein green energy concepts are fully embraced, and electric power costs are lowered throughout the nation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modulating Electron Beam–Sample Interactions in Imaging and Diffraction Modes by Dose Fractionation with Low Dose Rates

Abstract Technological opportunities are explored to enhance detection schemes in transmission electron microscopy (TEM) that build on the detection of single-electron scattering events across the typical spectrum of interdisciplinary applications. They range from imaging with high spatiotemporal resolution to diffraction experiments at the window to quantum mechanics, where the wave-particle dualism of single electrons is evident. At the ultimate detection limit, where isolated electrons are delivered to interact with solids, we find that the beam current dominates damage processes instead of the deposited electron charge, which can be exploited to modify electron beam-induced sample alterations. The results are explained by assuming that all electron scattering are inelastic and include phonon excitation that can hardly be distinguished from elastic electron scattering. Consequently, a coherence length and a related coherence time exist that reflect the interaction of the electron with the sample and change linearly with energy loss. Phonon excitations are of small energy (<100 meV), but they occur frequently and scale with beam current in the irradiated area, which is why we can detect their contribution to beam-induced sample alterations and damage.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

White Rabbit Time Synchronization for Radiation Detector Readout Electronics

As radiation detector arrays in nuclear physics applications become larger and physically more separated, the time synchronization and trigger distribution between many channels of detector readout electronics become more challenging. Clocks and triggers are traditionally distributed through dedicated cabling, but newer methods such as the IEEE 1588 Precision Time Protocol and White Rabbit allow clock synchronization through the exchange of timing messages over Ethernet. Consequently, we report here the use of White Rabbit in a new detector readout module, the Pixie-Net XL. Herein, the White Rabbit core, data capture from multiple digitizing channels, and subsequent pulse processing for pulse height and constant fraction timing are implemented in a Kintex 7 FPGA. The detector data records include White Rabbit time stamps and are transmitted to storage through the White Rabbit core's gigabit Ethernet data path or a slower diagnostic/control link using an embedded Zynq processor. The performance is characterized by time-of-flight style measurements and by time correlation of high energy background events from cosmic showers in detectors separated by longer distances. Software for the Zynq processor can implement "software triggering", for example to limit recording of data to events where a minimum number of channels from multiple modules detect radiation at the same time.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Integrated Issues and Risk Management: A Theoretical Framework Overview

The contractor requirements document for DOE O 226.1B, Implementation of Department of Energy Oversight Policy, requires DOE/NNSA contractors to establish an assurance system that includes, among other things, “Rigorous, risk-informed, and credible self-assessment and feedback and improvement activities. Assessment programs must be risk-informed, formally described and documented, and appropriately cover potentially high consequence activities” and “Contains an issues management process that is capable of categorizing the significance of findings based on risk and priority and other appropriate factors….” However, the term “risk-informed” is not defined in this or any other DOE order, and no formal guidance on how to integrate the two concepts currently exists. The Risk Management Guide for Defense Programs released by NA-18, Office of Systems Engineering and Integration (SE&I), states it is “a framework and general guidance to program office personnel on the effective management of program risks and issues”, however it then defines issues as “events with 100% likelihood of affecting program objectives” and states “unless specified otherwise, the term “risk” will also serve to represent issues for the remainder of this plan,” severally limiting its ability to provide adequate guidance on this topic. Outside of DOE scope, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S. NRC) imposes similar requirements. ASME NQA-1-2015 Requirement 16 states “Conditions adverse to quality shall be identified promptly and corrected as soon as practicable. In the case of a significant condition adverse to quality, the cause of the condition shall be determined, and corrective action taken to preclude recurrence. The identification, cause, and corrective action for significant conditions adverse to quality shall be documented and reported to appropriate levels of management. Completion of corrective actions shall be verified”. The purpose of this document is to provide a best-in-class framework for an integrated risk and issues management process. This process would provide a robust feedback loop between risk management and issues management to: Enhance risk identification and characterization, use risk handling principles to improve corrective action planning, and ensure regulatory compliance.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Dissect two-halo galactic conformity effect for central galaxies: the dependence of star formation activities on the large-scale environment

We investigate the two-halo galactic conformity effect for central galaxies, which is the spatial correlation of the star formation activities for central galaxies to several Mpcs, by studying the dependence of the star formation activities of central galaxies on their large-scale structure in our local Universe using the SDSS data. Here we adopt a novel environment metric using only central galaxies quantified by the distance to the nth nearest central galaxy. This metric measures the environment within an aperture from ∼1 to ≳ 10 Mpc, with a median value of ∼4 Mpc. We found that two kinds of conformity effects in our local Universe. The first one is that low-mass central galaxies are more quenched in high-density regions, and we found that this effect mainly comes from low-mass centrals that are close to a more massive halo. A similar trend is also found in the IllustrisTNG simulation, which can be entirely explained by backsplash galaxies. The second conformity effect is that massive central galaxies in low-density regions are more star-forming. This population of galaxies also possesses a higher fraction of spiral morphology and lower central stellar velocity dispersion, suggesting that their low quiescent fraction is due to less-frequent major merger events experienced in the low-density regions and, as a consequence, less-massive bulges and central black holes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

America Resilient Climate Conference

On April 14, 2021, scientists, policymakers, and other interested parties from research institutes, academia, and other organizations gathered together virtually at the America Resilient Climate Conference to discuss one of the most pressing challenges of the 21st century: building resilience to climate change. Climate change affects the security and health of all Americans. Coastal areas are enduring more frequent and severe flooding due to sea level rise and storm surge; western states and Alaska have experienced increasingly devastating wildfires, driven in part by hotter, drier, and longer fire seasons; and communities across the nation have suffered through extreme precipitation events and heat waves. Even if emissions are reduced aggressively in the near future, the world—and the United States—will continue to feel the impacts of climate change for decades to come, due to the continued accumulation of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. Consequently, it is essential to act now to protect natural and human assets from the gradual—as well as extreme—impacts of a changing climate. To build resilient communities, leaders and community members need science-based information about the potential impacts climate change will have decades into the future and for specific regions. Therefore, it is essential to develop high-resolution climate models that can project both various climate impacts and the interactions between earth system variables and humans down to regional and local scales. Collecting and curating data for such models and their computational requirements poses large challenges. In the future, artificial intelligence will be needed to increase their accuracy and reduce associated uncertainties. The investments in Earth system science and artificial intelligence made by the U.S. Department of Energy and other federal entities will be essential in addressing these challenges.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Coordination and control – limits in standard representations of multi-reservoir operations in hydrological modeling

Abstract. Major multi-reservoir cascades represent a primary mechanism for dealing with hydrologic variability and extremes within institutionally complex river basins worldwide. These coordinated management processes fundamentally reshape water balance dynamics. Yet, multi-reservoir coordination processes have been largely ignored in the increasingly sophisticated representations of reservoir operations within large-scale hydrological models. The aim of this paper is twofold, namely (i) to provide evidence that the common modeling practice of parameterizing each reservoir in a cascade independently from the others is a significant approximation and (ii) to demonstrate potential unintended consequences of this independence approximation when simulating the dynamics of hydrological extremes in complex reservoir cascades. We explore these questions using the Water Balance Model, which features detailed representations of the human infrastructure coupled to the natural processes that shape water balance dynamics. It is applied to the Upper Snake River basin in the western US and its heavily regulated multi-reservoir cascade. We employ a time-varying sensitivity analysis that utilizes the method of Morris factor screening to explicitly track how the dominant release rule parameters evolve both along the cascade and in time according to seasonal high- and low-flow events. This enables us to address aim (i) by demonstrating how the progressive and cumulative dominance of upstream releases significantly dampens the ability of downstream reservoir rules' parameters to influence flow conditions. We address aim (ii) by comparing simulation results with observed reservoir operations during critical low-flow and high-flow events in the basin. Our time-varying parameter sensitivity analysis with the method of Morris clarifies how independent single-reservoir parameterizations and their tacit assumption of independence leads to reservoir release behaviors that generate artificial water shortages and flooding, whereas the observed coordinated cascade operations avoided these outcomes for the same events. To further explore the role of (non-)coordination in the large deviations from the observed operations, we use an offline multi-reservoir water balance model in which adding basic coordination mechanisms drawn from the observed emergency operations is sufficient to correct the deficiencies of the independently parameterized reservoir rules from the hydrological model. These results demonstrate the importance of understanding the state–space context in which reservoir releases occur and where operational coordination plays a crucial role in avoiding or mitigating water-related extremes. Understanding how major infrastructure is coordinated and controlled in major river basins is essential for properly assessing future flood and drought hazards in a changing world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1981

Decameter studies of the 5 September 1973 flare

The spectra and positions of the meter-decameter wavelength radio sources associated with the flare of September 5, 1973 are discussed. The evolution of the size of the type II burst source is discussed and it is shown that it fluctuates by a factor of 10, or larger. Consequently, the potential and kinetic energies associated with the shock are uncertain by the same factor. By a comparison of the positions of the type II and type III sources, it is concluded that while the shock wave associated with the type II was guided along high loops, the type III electrons were injected along open field lines which diverged within a short height in the corona. The characteristics of a particularly interesting type III burst with a low-frequency cut-off are discussed. It is argued that nearby loops were not disrupted by the shock and that the energetic electrons produced during the event must have been injected at several sites and guided along open field lines at large distances from the flare to produce type III bursts.

Gergely, T. E.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Mercurian global tectonics - A consequence of tidal despinning

The surface of Mercury exhibits a global tectonic system consisting of an ancient set of NE and NW tending lineaments and a younger set of planimetrically arcuate escarpments interpreted as thrust of high-angle reverse faults. The trends, distribution, and age relations of these tectonic features can be explained by a combination of tidal despinning and global contraction of the planet. In our model, early tidal despinning resulted in conjugate shear fractures trending roughly N60 deg E and N60 deg W which were subsequently modified by a variety of surface processes to produce the presently visible set of lineaments. Continued despinning plus global contraction produced thrust faults with roughly north-south trends. Final contraction may have postdated despinning and produced randomly oriented thrust faults. All of these events predated the formation of Caloris basin, because basin-associated deposits blanket both lineaments and arcuate thrust faults.

Melosh, H. J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Framework for Quantitative Evaluation of Resilience Solutions: An Approach to Determine the Value of Resilience for a Particular Site

The paper provides the approach to providing a benefit cost analysis of energy and water alternatives to provide resilience to extreme events. The approach estimates the costs and returns of providing greater resilience of water and energy infrastructure. Extreme events are defined as high impact, low-frequency events such as, but not limited to, hurricanes, floods, storm surges and earthquakes. The provides justification for hardening water and energy infrastructure. Resilience is defined as “the ability to prepare for and to withstand an extreme event with little or no damage, or to recover more quickly from an extreme event.” The approach can be summarized as follows. The approach requires the development of a baseline with which to compare alternatives. The baseline is used to evaluate the baseline’s resilience to hazards through the probability of the hazard(s), the likelihood of damage from that the hazard through a vulnerability analysis, and the consequence to calculate a cost of the damage. The approach then evaluates proposed mitigation alternatives that would improve the resilience of the system. Each alternative is evaluated based on probability of the hazard, probability of vulnerability and consequence to determine the reduced damage that each alternative presents. The approach includes any monetary and non-monetary benefits that can quantified for each of the alternatives. Non-quantifiable benefits are evaluated based on the relative importance of each alternative to the criteria used to determine how well the alternative meets the goals and objectives of the site/facility. Then, a life cycle cost analysis should be conducted for the baseline and alternatives. Finally, the results of the life cycle analysis should be presented in a decision matrix with cost, net present value, benefit/cost ratios, and any non-monetary criteria ranked to show how well the alternatives met the criteria, weighted with the decision maker’s weights and the results presented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A New Method for High Resolution Surface Change Detection: Data Collection and Validation of Measurements from UAS at the Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, USA

The use of uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) increases the opportunities for detecting surface changes in remote areas and in challenging terrain. Detecting surface topographic changes offers an important constraint for understanding earthquake damage, groundwater depletion, effects of mining, and other events. For these purposes, changes on the order of 5–10 cm are readily detected, but sometimes it is necessary to detect smaller changes. An example is the surface changes that result from underground explosions, which can be as small as 3 cm. Previous studies that described change detection methodologies were generally not aimed at detecting sub-5-cm changes. Additionally, studies focused on high-fidelity accuracy were either computationally modeled or did not fully provide the necessary examples to highlight the usability of these workflows. Detecting changes at this threshold may be critical in certain applications, such as global security research and monitoring for high-consequence natural hazards, including landslides. Here we provide a detailed description of the methodology we used to detect 2–3 cm changes in an important applied research setting—surface changes related to underground explosions. This methodology improves the accuracy of change detection data collection and analysis through the optimization of pre-field planning, surveying, flight operations, and post-processing the collected data, all of which are critical to obtaining the highest output data resolution possible. We applied this methodology to a field study location, collecting 1.4 Tb of images over the course of 30 flights, and location data for 239 ground control points (GCPs). We independently verified changes with orthoimagery, and found that structure-from-motion, software-reported root mean square errors (RMSEs) for both control and check points underestimated the actual error. We found that 3 cm changes are detectable with this methodology, thereby improving our knowledge of a rock’s response to underground explosions.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of Solar Cycle Variation on Space Weather

We report on the solar cycle variation of solar eruptions and their space weather consequences during solar cycles 23-25. While the solar activity cycle is primarily expressed in terms of the Sunspot number (SSN), coronal mass ejections (CMEs) provide a different perspective on the solar cycle owing to their origin in sunspot regions as well as other non-spot magnetic regions such as quiescent filament regions. Weak solar activity observed in solar cycle 24 has been found to result in a weak heliospheric state, which backreacted on CME properties. The cycle resulted in mild space weather in that the number of large solar energetic particle events and geomagnetic storms decreased significantly. The occurrence of intense geomagnetic storms and high-energy SEP events was drastically reduced, much more than the reduction in the solar activity. The current status of solar cycle 25 indicates that it will be similar to solar cycle 24 or slightly stronger, which means a mild space weather in this cycle as well. We illustrate this using the data obtained during the rise phase of solar cycle 25 in comparison with the corresponding phases in cycles 23 and 24.

Nat Gopalswamy↗

NASA NTRS2015

Environmental Consequences of Big Nasty Impacts on the Early Earth

The geological record of the Archean Earth is spattered with impact spherules from a dozen or so major cosmic collisions involving Earth and asteroids or comets (Lowe, Byerly 1986, 2015). Extrapolation of the documented deposits suggests that most of these impacts were as big or bigger than the Chicxulub event that famously ended the reign of the thunder lizards. As the Archean impacts were greater, the environmental effects were also greater. The number and magnitude of the impacts is bounded by the lunar record. There are no lunar craters bigger than Chicxulub that date to Earth's mid-to-late Archean. Chance dictates that Earth experienced no more than approximately 10 impacts bigger than Chicxulub between 2.5 billion years and 3.5 billion years, the biggest of which were approximately 30-100 times more energetic, comparable to the Orientale impact on the Moon (1x10 (sup 26) joules). To quantify the thermal consequences of big impacts on old Earth, we model the global flow of energy from the impact into the environment. The model presumes that a significant fraction of the impact energy goes into ejecta that interact with the atmosphere. Much of this energy is initially in rock vapor, melt, and high speed particles. (i) The upper atmosphere is heated by ejecta as they reenter the atmosphere. The mix of hot air, rock vapor, and hot silicates cools by thermal radiation. Rock raindrops fall out as the upper atmosphere cools. (ii) The energy balance of the lower atmosphere is set by radiative exchange with the upper atmosphere and with the surface, and by evaporation of seawater. Susequent cooling is governed by condensation of water vapor. (iii) The oceans are heated by thermal radiation and rock rain and cooled by evaporation. Surface waters become hot and salty; if a deep ocean remains it is relatively cool. Subsequently water vapor condenses to replenish the oceans with hot fresh water (how fresh depending on continental weathering, which might be rather rapid under the circumstances). (iv) The surface temperature of dry land is presumed to be the same as the lower atmosphere. A thermal wave propagates into the land at a rate set by conduction. Impacts not greatly larger than Chicxulub can raise the surface temperature by tens, hundreds, or even thousands of degrees, and evaporate meters to hundreds of meters of water. The biggest should have vitrified exposed dry land. More results are for the talk, as here we have run out of space.

Archean Earth↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dominant Controls on Preferential Flow and Their Implications for Future Soil Water Fluxes

Abstract Soil water flow, particularly preferential flow (PF), is a critical control on hydrological and biogeochemical processes, including groundwater recharge, contaminant transport, and carbon cycling. However, it remains challenging to predict PF occurrence across large environmental gradients. Here, we developed a deep learning (DL) model to estimate event‐scale soil water flow velocity and the probability of PF occurrence using high‐frequency soil moisture and precipitation data from 33 sites across the National Ecological Observatory Network. The model demonstrated high skill in predicting the binary occurrence of PF (91% F1‐score; 85% accuracy) but the performance was limited in predicting soil water velocity ( R 2 = 0.31). We found that precipitation characteristics (duration, volume, and intensity) were the most important predictors for soil water velocity. Among the non‐precipitation event variables, sand content showed relatively high predictive skill, though differences among non‐event climate variables were generally modest. Lower sand content was associated with increased predicted soil water velocity, a finding that highlights the role of soil structure in producing more non‐uniform flow, which contrasts with traditional uniform flow models. Projecting a reduced DL model under both moderate and high‐emissions future climate scenarios (2060–2099 Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5), we found ∼7.3% increase under RCP4.5 and ∼15% under RCP8.5 of soil water velocities compared to the historical simulation, while modeled likelihood of PF changed little. These findings suggest climate change is not making PF more frequent, but it is making existing PF pathways more efficient with important consequences for associated nutrient and contaminant transport under climate change. Plain Language Summary Water movement in soil is critical for water quality. While often modeled as a uniform flow process, in reality water moves rapidly through cracks and burrows in what is called “preferential flow” (PF), which limits natural filtration and can transport pollutants. We developed a deep learning model, trained on data from 33 U.S. sites, to predict when and how fast this PF occurs based on precipitation, soil, and climate data. The model showed that precipitation characteristics (duration, intensity, volume) were the most important predictors of PF. Lower soil sand content/higher clay content was associated with faster water flow, likely due to clay soils forming aggregates and cracks that water moves through rather than infiltrating uniformly. Further analyses based on climate projections suggest that the speed at which PF occurs will become more rapid under future climate scenarios compared to historical simulation. This highlights the need to represent PF in soil water models when assessing future water quality. Key Points The effect of precipitation peak intensity on soil water velocities declined with increasing precipitation intensity Antecedent soil moisture failed to predict preferential flow (PF), contrasting the high predictive power of sand content Climate predictions suggest that soil water velocities through PF paths will increase ∼15% by 2099

Li, Bonan↗

NASA NTRS2022

Characteristics of Multi-scale Current Sheets in the Solar Wind at 1 au Associated with Magnetic Reconnection and the Case for a Heliospheric Current Sheet Avalanche

Wind spacecraft measurements are analyzed to obtain a current sheet (CS) normal width dcs-distribution of 3374 confirmed magnetic reconnection exhausts in the ecliptic plane of the solar wind at 1 AU. The dcs-distribution displays a nearly exponential decay from a peak at dcs=25 di to a median at dcs=85 di and a 95th percentile at dcs=905 di with a maximum exhaust width at dcs=8077 di. A magnetic field ϴ-rotation angle distribution increases linearly from a relatively few high-shear events toward a broad peak at 35o<ϴ<65o. The azimuthal φ-angles of the CS normal directions of 430 thick dcs≥500 di exhausts are consistent with a dominant Parker-spiral magnetic field and a CS normal along the ortho-Parker direction. The CS normal orientations of 370 kinetic-scale dcs<25 di exhausts are isotropic in contrast, and likely associated with Alfvénic solar wind turbulence. We propose that the alignment of exhaust normal directions from narrow dcs~15-25 di widths to well beyond dcs~500 di with an ortho-Parker azimuthal direction of a large-scale HCS is a consequence of CS bifurcation and turbulence within the HCS exhaust that may trigger reconnection of the adjacent pair of bifurcated CSs. The proposed HCS-31 avalanche scenario suggests that the underlying large-scale parent HCS closer to the Sun evolves with heliocentric distance to fracture into many, more or less aligned, secondary current sheets due to reconnection. A few wide exhaust-associated HCS-like CSs could represent a population of HCSs that failed to reconnect as frequently between the Sun and 1 AU as other HCSs.

Stefan Eriksson↗

DOE OSTI2021

AI-Guided Reasoning-Based Operator Support System for the Nuclear Power Plant Management

The Decision-making process in the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) control room faces some challenges: operator incomplete knowledge, insufficient time for responding to the highly dynamic events, and a large number of indicators to monitor. Because of the complexity of the NPP system, it is hard to pre-plan all the failures/mitigative actions. An intelligent operator support system is vital to mitigate these shortcomings. In this paper, an AI declarative approach (Answer Set Programming (ASP)) is employed to represent our knowledge of the nuclear power plant in the form of logic rules. This represented knowledge is structured to form a reasoning-based operator support system. When an incident occurs, this ASP-based reasoning support system is demonstrated to be capable of fault identification (diagnosis), informing the operator of different scenarios and consequences, and generating the control options (decision making).

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS1987

On the association of erupting magnetic fields with eruptive prominences and coronal mass ejections

A number of space and ground-based observations give evidence that the eruptive prominences, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and associated shocks are generated by a common cause, i.e., the eruption of the magnetic field on the Sun. Some 60% of the observed CMEs are associated with the eruptive prominences. It is believed that in reality a much better correlation should be between these events because of observational limitations and of the effect of partial eruption. Some recent results on the formation and evolution of the quiescent and the active region prominences give an idea on the early phase of eruption of the magnetic field with the prominence plasma frozen in. In the latter phase of eruption the magnetic field lifted high into the corona and is seen (as manifested by the cold plasma frozen in) as a system of huge loops - evidently the result of some reconnections at lower heights. The legs of these erupting loops interact sometimes with the local magnetic field, i.e., it often appears to be an active region. In consequence of this interaction the activation of prominences and generation of flares can take place on some occasions as well as ejection of surges and sprays.

Rompolt, Bogdan↗