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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

Climate hazard indices projections based on CORDEX-CORE, CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble

The CORDEX-CORE initiative was developed with the aim of producing homogeneous regional climate model (RCM) projections over domains world wide. In its first phase, two RCMs were run at 0.22° resolution downscaling 3 global climate models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 program for 9 CORDEX domains and two climate scenarios, the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The CORDEX-CORE simulations along with the CMIP5 GCM ensemble and the most recently produced CMIP6 GCM ensemble are analyzed, with focus on several temperature, heat, wet and dry hazard indicators for present day and mid-century and far future time slices. The CORDEX-CORE ensemble shows a better performance than the driving GCMs for several hazard indices due to its higher spatial resolution. For the far future time slice the 3 ensembles project an increase in all temperature and heat indices analyzed under the RCP8.5 scenario. The largest increases are always shown by the CMIP6 ensemble, except for Tx > 35 °C, for which the CORDEX-CORE projects higher warming. Extreme wet and flood prone maxima are projected to increase by the RCM ensemble over the la Plata basin in South America, the Congo basin in Africa, east North America, north east Europe, India and Indochina, regions where a better performance is obtained, whereas the GCM ensembles show small or negligible signals. Furthermore, compound hazard hotspots based on heat, drought and wet indicators are detected in each continent worldwide in region like Central America, the Amazon, the Mediterranean, South Africa and Australia, where a linear relation is shown between the heatwave and drought change signal, and region like Arabian peninsula, the central and south east Africa region (SEAF), the north west America (NWN), south east Asia, India, China and central and northern European regions (WCE, NEU) where the same linear relation is found for extreme precipitation and HW increases. Although still limited, the CORDEX-CORE initiative was able to produce high resolution climate projections with almost global coverage and can provide an important resource for impact assessment and climate service activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Determination of aquatic hazard concentrations for the oil spill response product class of surface washing agents using species sensitivity distributions

Surface washing agents (SWAs) are a diverse class of oil spill response products intended to facilitate removal of stranded oil from shorelines. This class of agents has high application rates relative to other categories of spill response products, but global toxicity data is generally limited to two standard test species: inland silverside and mysid shrimp. Here, in this study, we provide a framework to maximize the utility of limited toxicity data across a product class. To characterize species sensitivity to SWAs, the toxicity of three agents spanning a range of chemical and physical properties were tested in eight species. The relative sensitivity of mysids shrimp and inland silversides as surrogate test organisms was determined. Toxicity normalized species sensitivity distributions (SSDn) were used to estimate fifth centile hazard concentration (HC5) values for SWAs with limited toxicity data. Chemical toxicity distributions (CTD) of SWA HC5 values were used to compute a fifth centile chemical hazard distribution (HD5) to provide a more comprehensive assessment of hazard across a spill response product class with limited toxicity data than traditional single species or single agent approaches can give.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging Radiofrequency Identification Success Beyond Hazardous Material Inventory Management at a National Laboratory

Effective inventory management can be overshadowed by conflicting priorities in organizational procedures, particularly in research-focused institutions such as national laboratories that handle expensive, delicate, and hazardous materials. Here, this study investigated the potential of radiofrequency identification (RFID) technology, currently used for hazardous chemical inventory, in applications with higher metal interference and absorption, specifically pressure release device (PRD) compliance and nuclear container management, at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). This study was done to document best practices to enhance inventory identification speeds for inventory reconciliation and inventory recall and to explore optimal configurations for RFID implementation compared to traditional manual methods of equipment management. Tests were conducted to determine the ideal RFID tag orientation (read at angles of 0°, 90°, and 270°), various container layouts (linear, separated, curved, operational), and ID methods such as manual, barcode, and RFID performing three trials per method per orientation. Results indicated that 0° was the optimal read angle for minimizing metallic interference, and the operational and curved arrangements significantly outperformed the linear and separated configurations in read speed. 3D printed mounts were developed and tested, increasing the read range of the RFID reader by up to 235% in cases of high metallic interference. The RFID technology demonstrated an average speed increase of 65% over a simplified manual identification, which supports the conclusion that RFID is a more efficient method for large hazardous inventory management and equipment reconciliation. Additionally, capturing meta-data, such as location and date, can be used to query for inventory recall and automated updating of record information.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian-Motivated Probabilistic Model of Hurricane-Induced Multimechanism Flood Hazards

Multimechanism floods (MMFs) are caused by the simultaneous occurrence of more than one flood mechanism such as storm surge, precipitation, tides, and waves. MMFs can lead to more severe or differing impacts than single-mechanism floods. As a result, comprehensive risk assessments require the ability to assess the multivariate probabilistic behaviors of hazards from MMFs. Here this study introduces a novel Bayesian-motivated approach for the probabilistic assessment of hurricane-induced hazards from the combination of the surge, precipitation, tides, and river antecedent flow. A Bayesian network (BN) is developed to capture the physical (conditional) relationship between variables and facilitate the generation of a hazard curve for river discharge that captures the contributions from multiple flood drivers. A case study located along the Delaware River is used to illustrate the proposed approach. Five computationally efficient representative predictive models are developed to estimate the conditional distributions required for the BN as a means of demonstrating the overall framework. The predictive models used in this study act as placeholders and can be replaced with more sophisticated and high-fidelity models depending on the desired accuracy level. While the predictive models are intended to be representative and illustrative, the model performance is evaluated using three historical storms that affected the area. Overall, the proposed framework is shown to be transparent, effective, and adaptable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Method for Measuring Coupled Individual and Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards

Although models of social vulnerability to environmental hazards are commonly developed to support policy interventions in emergencies and disasters, their utility is hindered by a lack of contextual information on individuals exposed to and affected by hazards. We develop a novel approach to model social vulnerability that couples individuals and their varying forms of protective capacity with the social fabric of the communities in which they reside. The backbone of our model is the Public-Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), a product of the U.S. Census Bureau that preserves a representative sample of completed responses to the American Community Survey (ACS). The PUMS enables us to understand the full range of individual protective capacities against a hazard in an exposed area, which we term individual vulnerability profiles (IVPs). In this case, we examine IVPs in the Coney Island-Brighton Beach section of New York City, which suffered severe impacts during Hurricane Sandy in 2012. To manage the large number of unique IVPs in Coney Island-Brighton Beach, we perform a segmentation analysis to generalize them into thematic cohort vulnerability profiles (CVPs) representing a typology of vulnerable people in Coney Island-Brighton Beach during Sandy. From synthetic populations of CVPs, we then estimate how individuals in varying housing types were coexposed to Sandy at the census tract level by classifying these areas into community social vulnerability profiles (SVPs). Our results provide a topology of social vulnerability that simultaneously links individual, community, and population-wide concerns, enabling a more holistic understanding of resources and interventions beneficial to human security during events like Sandy than is attainable with area-level metrics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Interference Moral Hazard in Large Multihop Networks

Cooperation between network nodes is critical for supporting services in ad hoc networks. Cooperation, however, is an idealized assumption that may not always be present. This assumption can fail because of moral hazard, a scenario in part caused by misaligned incentives between the requesting node and supporting node. In this paper, we characterize a moral hazard that perversely incentivizes nodes to increase their routing payments by transmitting interference into the multi-hop network. We refer to this as the interference moral hazard (IMH) problem which is inherent to strategyproof mechanisms with low overpayments. We investigate IMH as a non-cooperative game played by network nodes on a random graph. For large networks, we show that IMH can be solved in the network design space. Finally, we provide sufficient conditions on the network distribution that guarantee an equilibrium path with interference-free play. This is achieved by 1) lower-bounding the number of nodes and 2) bounding the network density slightly above the 2-connectedness threshold and below a proposed upper-bound. Simulations suggest that density plays a fundamental role in IMH.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

A geospatial risk analysis graphical user interface for identifying hazardous chemical emission sources

Background: Performing back trajectory and forward trajectory using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) is a reliable approach for assessing particle transport after release among mid-field atmospheric models. HYSPLIT has an externally facing online interface that allows non-expert users to run the model trajectories without requiring extensive training or programming. However, the existing HYSPLIT interface is limited if simulations have a large amount of meteorological data and timesteps that are not coincident. The objective of this study is to design and develop a more robust tool to rapidly evaluate hazard transport conditions and to perform risk analysis, while still maintaining an intuitive and user-friendly interface. Methods: HYSPLIT calculates forward and backward trajectories of particles based on wind speed, wind direction, and the corresponding location, timestamp, and Pasquill stability classes of the regions of the atmosphere in terms of the wind speed, the amount of solar radiation, and the fractional cloud cover. The computed particle transport trajectories, combined with the online Proton Transfer Reaction-Mass Spectrometry (PTR-MS) data (https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/ARL_Data_from_PROS_station_at_Hanford_site/19993964), can be used to identify and quantify the sources and affected area of the hazardous chemicals’ emission using the potential source distribution function (PSDF). PSDF is an improved statistical function based on the well-known potential source contribution function (PSCF) in establishing the air pollutant source and receptor relationship. Performing this analysis requires a range of meteorological and pollutant concentration measurements to be statistically meaningful. The existing HYSPLIT graphical user interface (GUI) does not easily permit computations of trajectories of a dataset of meteorological data in high temporal frequency. To improve the performance of HYSPLIT computations from a large dataset and enhance risk analysis of the accidental release of material at risk, a geospatial risk analysis tool (GRAT-GUI) is created to allow large data sets to be processed instantaneously and to provide ease of visualization. Results: The GRAT-GUI is a native desktop-based application and can be run in any Windows 10 system without any internet access requirements, thus providing a secure way to process large meteorological datasets even on a standalone computer. GRAT-GUI has features to import, integrate, and convert meteorological data with various formats for hazardous chemical emission source identification and risk analysis as a self-explanatory user interface. The tool is available at https://figshare.com/articles/software/GRAT/19426742.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2008

Automatic Hazard Detection for Landers

Unmanned planetary landers to date have landed 'blind'; that is, without the benefit of onboard landing hazard detection and avoidance systems. This constrains landing site selection to very benign terrain,which in turn constrains the scientific agenda of missions. The state of the art Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) technology can land a spacecraft on Mars somewhere within a 20-100km landing ellipse.Landing ellipses are very likely to contain hazards such as craters, discontinuities, steep slopes, and large rocks, than can cause mission-fatal damage. We briefly review sensor options for landing hazard detection and identify a perception approach based on stereo vision and shadow analysis that addresses the broadest set of missions. Our approach fuses stereo vision and monocular shadow-based rock detection to maximize spacecraft safety. We summarize performance models for slope estimation and rock detection within this approach and validate those models experimentally. Instantiating our model of rock detection reliability for Mars predicts that this approach can reduce the probability of failed landing by at least a factor of 4 in any given terrain. We also describe a rock detector/mapper applied to large-high-resolution images from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) for landing site characterization and selection for Mars missions.

hazard detection↗

NASA NTRS2015

Bundle Data Approach at GES DISC Targeting Natural Hazards

Severe natural phenomena such as hurricane, volcano, blizzard, flood and drought have the potential to cause immeasurable property damages, great socioeconomic impact, and tragic loss of human life. From searching to assessing the Big, i.e., massive and heterogeneous scientific data (particularly, satellite and model products) in order to investigate those natural hazards, it has, however, become a daunting task for Earth scientists and applications researchers, especially during recent decades. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Service Center (GES DISC) has served Big Earth science data, and the pertinent valuable information and services to the aforementioned users of diverse communities for years. In order to help and guide our users to online readily (i.e., with a minimum effort) acquire their requested data from our enormous resource at GES DISC for studying their targeted hazard event, we have thus initiated a Bundle Data approach in 2014, first targeting the hurricane event topic. We have recently worked on new topics such as volcano and blizzard. The bundle data of a specific hazard event is basically a sophisticated integrated data package consisting of a series of proper datasets containing a group of relevant (knowledge--based) data variables readily accessible to users via a system-prearranged table linking those data variables to the proper datasets (URLs). This online approach has been developed by utilizing a few existing data services such as Mirador as search engine; Giovanni for visualization; and OPeNDAP for data access, etc. The online Data Cookbook site at GES DISC is the current host for the bundle data. We are now also planning on developing an Automated Virtual Collection Framework that shall eventually accommodate the bundle data, as well as further improve our management in Big Data.

GES DISC↗

NASA NTRS2019

Hazards Analysis and Failure Modes and Effects Criticality Analysis (FMECA) of Four Concept Vehicle Propulsion Systems

The primary objective of this research effort is to identify failure modes and hazards associated with the concept vehicles and to perform functional hazard analyses (FHA) and failure modes and effects criticality analyses (FMECA) for each. Boeing also created a Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) for each of the concept vehicles, as the FTA contains the connectivity between systems and is an accepted, top-down method to analyze the safety of an air-vehicle. Conceptual design of notional powertrain configuration for each of four (4) NASA RVLT (Revolutionary Vertical Lift Technology) Concept Vehicles were developed in as much detail as was necessary to support the reliability and safety analysis for this project. Functional block diagrams from each of the conceptual powertrain configurations were created and used to order the FHA, FMECA, and FTA. Hazards were identified and the severity of each were categorized in the FHA for use in a follow-up FMECA. The FTA took inputs from the FMECA and the functional block diagrams to develop the connectivity and develop a quantitative architecture that could be used to perform sensitivity studies, as related to vehicle safety.Guidelines for reliability targets for both the air vehicle and the operation in the UAM (Urban Air Mobility) mission are discussed. An industry literature search was performed in order to assess gaps in existing government regulations and industry specifications. The industry literature search led to air-vehicle and operational reliability discussions, as related to Distributed Electric/Hybrid-Electric Propulsion (DE/HEP) system operating in the UAM role. A discussion of results and recommendations for future work is also provided.

Hazards Analysis↗

NASA NTRS2002

Descent-speed testing of a hazard detection system for safe landing on Mars

In a previous paper we described an approach for testing a prototype system designed to detect hazards during the terminal descent phase of a mission to Mars. The system under development at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) utilizes a scanning laser radar and an inertial measurement unit to map the landing zone, identify hazards, and thenguide the vehicle to a safe landing site. The test approach consisted of a placing this system on a rocket sled, accelerating the sled to typical descent speeds, and mapping a simulated Martian terrain. The data would then be processed to identify hazards and locate a safe landing site. Since ref. 1 was written several such tests have been performed. In this paper we provide an update on the testing methodology and we present preliminary results from one of the tests.

hazard↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Defining A Modelling Language to Support Functional Hazard Assessment

Functional Hazard Assessment (FHA) is a key early-stage engineering process that supports the incorporation of safety in design by identifying the high-level functional hazards the system may encounter. While many FHA-like methodologies have been proposed in the design engineering literature, many of these methodologies have had difficulty becoming accepted industry practice. Industry standards, on the other hand, either provide too little recommendation on how to represent the function of the system to perform FHA, or rely on existing design artefacts which insufficiently support the goals of the process. This paper presents some of the problems with current modeling languages (both proposed and used) for FHA which limit the scope, expressiveness, flexibility, and precision of the analysis. It then outlines desirable principles an FHA-supporting analysis language should embody, and introduces the Functional Reasoning Design Language (FRDL), a formal modeling language for describing the functional elements of a system and their interactions, which aims to satisfy these principles. To demonstrate the use of this language, the modeling and hazard analysis of a disaster response drone is presented. While this case study is limited in scope, it highlights how FRDL can represent system function while reducing the ambiguity present in typical FHA-supporting functional modeling languages

Hazard Assessment↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Defining A Modelling Language to Support Functional Hazard Assessment

Functional Hazard Assessment (FHA) is a key early-stage engineering process that supports the incorporation of safety in design by identifying the high-level functional hazards the system may encounter. While many FHA-like methodologies have been proposed in the design engineering literature, many of these methodologies have had difficulty becoming accepted industry practice. Industry standards, on the other hand, either provide little recommendation on how to represent the function of the system to perform FHA, or rely on readily-available models with little justification in design theory. This paper presents some of the problems with current modelling languages used for FHA which limit the scope, expressiveness, flexibility, and precision of the analysis, as well as desirable principles an FHA-supporting analysis language should embody. It further introduces the Functional Reasoning Design Language (FRDL), a formal modelling language for describing the functional behaviors of a system and their interactions which satisfies these principles. To demonstrate the use of this language, the modelling and hazard analysis of a disaster response drone is presented.

safety analysis↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Standalone Hazard Evaluation and Refinement From Instrument Findings (S.H.E.R.I.F.)

The Standalone Hazard Evaluation From Instrument Findings (SHERIF) system is a set of novel algorithms and associated framework designed to support the generation of Digital Elevation Maps (DEMs) from multiple LiDAR scans and perform Hazard Detection (HD) and Safe Site Identification (SSI) with no dependencies on other onboard systems. SHERIF can employ several techniques to perform robust 3D keypoint extraction and Point Cloud registration (PCR) on disparate LiDAR scans of a planetary surface to generate a DEM which evolves over the course of a trajectory. The framework also supports a variety of Hazard Detection and Safe Site Identification algorithms which can be applied to the evolving DEM being produced. SHERIF features a robust and modular construction, allowing the user a high degree of flexibility in selecting and implementing whichever keypoint identificaiton, PCR and HD/SSI algorithms they may prefer, while maintaining the data products and sensor independence of the core SHERIF framework. SHERIF was recently evaluated via simulation and hardware-in-the-loop experimental testing at NASA Johnson Space Center.

hazard detection↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Standalone Hazard Evaluation and Refinement From Instrument Findings (S.H.E.R.I.F.)

hazard detection↗

DOE OSTI2022

Flood hazard model calibration using multiresolution model output

Riverine floods pose a considerable risk to many communities. Improving flood hazard projections has the potential to inform the design and implementation of flood risk management strategies. Current flood hazard projections are uncertain, especially due to uncertain model parameters. Calibration methods use observations to quantify model parameter uncertainty. With limited computational resources, researchers typically calibrate models using either relatively few expensive model runs at high spatial resolutions or many cheaper runs at lower spatial resolutions. This leads to an open question: is it possible to effectively combine information from the high and low resolution model runs? We propose a Bayesian emulation–calibration approach that assimilates model outputs and observations at multiple resolutions. As a case study for a riverine community in Pennsylvania, we demonstrate our approach using the LISFLOOD-FP flood hazard model. Here, the multiresolution approach results in improved parameter inference over the single resolution approach in multiple scenarios. Results vary based on the parameter values and the number of available models runs. Our method is general and can be used to calibrate other high dimensional computer models to improve projections.

multiresolution↗

DOE OSTI2020

Limitations of traditional tools for beyond design basis external hazard PRA

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is being used increasingly by the nuclear industry for safety during normal operations as well as for the protection against external hazards. Computation of total risk in an external hazard PRA is dependent on hazard assessment, fragility assessment, and systems analysis. A systems analysis for propagation of component fragilities is conducted using event and fault trees. The event and fault trees for an actual power plant can be fairly large in size, which imposes computational challenges. Hence, certain assumptions are employed for computational efficiency. These assumptions typically represent the conditions imposed during the design basis (DB) scenario. The traditional PRA tools based on these assumptions are also widely applied to perform risk assessment in the context of beyond design basis (BDB) scenarios. However, some of these assumptions may not be valid for certain BDB scenarios. In addition, the probability of dependent failures also increases in BDB scenarios due to common cause failures (CCF) which usually results from design modifications, human errors, etc. In this manuscript, a simple and a relatively more complex illustrative examples are used to show the limitation of these assumptions in the numerical quantification of risk for the case of BDB conditions. Case studies with CCF events across multiple fault trees are also presented to illustrate the effect of these assumptions when traditional approach is used in BDB risk assessment. It is shown that the assumptions are valid for the case of DB conditions but may lead to excessively conservative risk estimates in the case of BDB conditions. Finally, a Bayesian network based top-down algorithm is proposed as an alternative tool for accurate numerical quantification of total risk in systems analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Database-wide hazard modelling of the onset of DIII-D tearing modes with field features

The rate of onset (hazard) of tearing modes is modelled probabilistically using statistical learning algorithms. Axisymmetric energy-density equilibrium fields are taken as raw high-dimensional input features which are reduced with principal component analysis. Signal processing of non-axisymmetric magnetics fluctuation array data provides the target information from which to learn. Model selection, visualization and calibration assessment procedures are detailed. Here, the analysis is deployed at large scale across the DIII-D tokamak database. Standard model selection criteria suggest that the energy-density post-processed feature is a better choice for modelling the onset rate compared to the non-processed equilibrium reconstruction solution. Two example applications of the learned rate function are demonstrated: (i) proximity-to-onset discharge monitoring and (ii) database analysis showing an (expected) observational global trend that the general hazard increases as a plasma performance metric increases. An important connection between the hazard function and its use as a conditional probability generator is reviewed in the Appendix.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗