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DOE OSTI2024

A Eulerian three-fluid flow framework for the study of fuel dispersal behavior under loss-of-coolant accident conditions

As the nuclear industry explores new fuel designs to accommodate increased burnup, studying fuel behavior during loss-of-coolant accidents is essential for ensuring the safe operation of light-water reactors. Here, this study presents a computational model to simulate the intricate three-phase flow dynamics of fuel dispersal following cladding breach, where solid fuel particles and carrier fission gases interact with the surrounding liquid or gas medium. The model utilizes a Eulerian three-fluid framework to depict the phase interaction within interpenetrating continua, treating fragmented fuel as granular material. Closure relationships for bulk-flow properties of the solid phase and detailed interfacial exchange terms in high-temperature, high-speed gas-solid-liquid flow scenarios are proposed. The model was validated using adiabatic experimental results in the literature, focusing on characterizing fuel dispersal behavior during loss-of-coolant accidents conditions. Settlement characteristics of the solids, quantified by the probability distribution of equivalent particles, closely matched probability density functions reported in experimental studies. Key highlights of this study include the theoretical description of a coupled three-phase flow with phase change, interpretation of the high-pressure boundary conditions and insights into the transient behavior of gas-solid-liquid phase dynamics during a simulated high-speed dispersal event.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Discrete element modeling of granular hopper flow of irregular-shaped deformable particles

Many natural and engineered granular materials have relatively deformable particles. Besides particle size and shape, particle deformability is another salient factor that significantly impacts the material’s flow behavior. Here, in this work, the flow of irregular-shaped deformable particles in a wedge-shaped hopper is investigated using discrete element simulations. A bonded-sphere model is developed to simultaneously capture irregular particle shapes and particle-wise deformations (e.g., compression, deflection, and distortion). Quantitative analysis of the effects of irregular shapes and particle deformations shows that the increase in particle stiffness tends to increase initial packing porosity and decrease the flow rate in the hopper. Rigid particles tend to have clogging issues, whereas deformable particles have less chance to, indicating particle deformation reduces the critical bridging width in the hopper flow. Detailed analysis of stress fields is also conducted to provide insights into the mechanism of particle flow and clogging. Stresses and discharge rates calculated from numerical simulations are compared and show good agreement with Walker’s theory and the extended Beverloo formula. Simulations with various particle shape combinations are also performed and show that the initial packing porosity decreases with an increasing percentage of fibers while the discharge rate has a complex dependency on particle shapes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing biomass flowability for entrained flow Gasification: The role of densification and torrefaction

Gasification presents a key strategy in addressing future energy demands while minimizing environmental impact. This has been recognized as a promising method to convert biomass to higher value products such as biofuels or hydrogen. Among gasification technologies, high-temperature and high-pressure reactors, particularly the R-GAS® system, emerge as an advanced option boasting superior conversion efficiency. However, akin to conventional high-temperature and high-pressure gasifiers, R-GAS® necessitates small particle sizes for optimal carbon conversion, a requirement yet to be fully explored for biomass. Hence, this study investigated the effectiveness of combined mechanical and thermal preprocessing techniques in modifying the physicochemical properties of biomass to suit gasification systems. Mechanical techniques including densification and pulverization, alongside thermal techniques such as torrefaction and steam explosion, were examined. The results demonstrate that torrefaction fosters producing of uniform granular material, enhancing flowability and reducing energy requirements for pulverization compared to steam explosion. Notably, torrefied corn stover exhibited lower internal friction angles and effective cohesion (40.09 ± 0.22° and 0.56 ± 0.01 kPa, respectively) compared to steam exploded corn stover (41.87 ± 0.65° and 0.83 ± 0.06 kPa, respectively), indicative of improved flowability. Additionally, pulverization of torrefied corn stover required approximately 16 % less energy than steam exploded corn stover and 91 % less energy than raw corn stover. Furthermore, the torrefaction-induced alterations in particle size, shape, and packing densities emphasize its potential to optimize flow and handling processes for gasification. These findings underline that densification followed by torrefaction effectively addresses biomass variability, leading to more efficient and sustainable energy conversion.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Experimental and numerical investigation of fracture conductivity between non-smooth rock surfaces with and without proppant

The enhancement of fracture conductivity is vital for the efficient recovery of subsurface resources, such as geothermal energy and petroleum hydrocarbons. Proppants, granular materials injected into hydraulic fractures to maintain their conductivity, have been studied primarily in the context of smooth fractures (i.e., fractures between smooth rock surfaces). However, non-smooth fractures (i.e., fractures between rough rock surfaces) are common in geoenergy reservoirs and thus require further investigations. In this study, we conducted laboratory measurements of fracture conductivity on shale slabs with non-smooth surfaces and carried out numerical simulation using the lattice Boltzmann (LB) method, which aimed to investigate the conductivity of non-smooth fractures with and without proppants placement. When ceramic proppant with an areal concentration of 2 lb/ft 2 was placed in the fracture, the conductivity was enhanced by roughly 3-8 times compared to fractures without proppant. In fractures with proppant, gas-measured conductivity was higher than that measured with water due to proppant embedment caused by water. The experiments demonstrate the advantages of using proppant in fractures, even if the rock surface roughness can provide certain fracture conductivity via the self-propping mechanism. For fractures without proppants, high rock surface roughness is not necessarily favorable for enhancing fracture conductivity because the self-propping mechanism requires shear slip along the fracture surface. If there is no shear slip, high rock surface roughness can cause a detrimental effect on the fracture conductivity due to the interlocking effect. Utilizing advanced experimental equipment and LB modeling, this research explores the interplays between proppant placement, fracture geometry, and stress conditions to develop a comprehensive understanding of the productivity in non-smooth fractures. Further, the outcomes of this investigation indicate the importance of creating fractures with surface roughness during hydraulic fracturing and will contribute to the development of more efficient stimulation techniques for subsurface energy extraction.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

A simple and effective five-equation two-phase numerical model for liquid-vapor phase transition in cavitating flows

Numerical difficulties, notably the non-monotonic behavior of the Wood speed of sound and the volume fraction positivity, associated with the reduced five-equation two-phase flow model of Kapila et al. (2001) [A.K. Kapila, R. Menikoff, J.B. Bdzil, S.F. Son, D.S. Stewart, 2001. Two-phase modeling of deflagration-to-detonation transition in granular materials: reduced equations, Physics of Fluids 13(10), 3002–3024] have been resolved in the past through the introduction of a frozen speed of sound and an algebraic approach for mechanical relaxation afforded by a pressure non-equilibrium six-equation model proposed by [R. Saurel, F. Petitpas, R.A. Berry, 2009. Simple and efficient relaxation methods for interfaces separating compressible fluids, cavitating flows and shocks in multiphase mixture, J. Comput. Phys. 228, 1678–1712]. By contrast, it is explored and demonstrated in this work that these difficulties can in fact still be resolved within the numerical scheme for solving the reduced five-equation model by numerically replacing the Wood speed of sound for the estimates of wave speeds in the approximate Riemann solver HLLC with the monotonic mixture speed of sound for a transport five-equation model. For shock interface (artificial mixture separating pure or nearly pure fluids) interaction problems, with the apparent advantage of monotonic behavior of the speed of sound in the interface, the effect of the numerical replacement is also confined to the interface. Differences other than the behavior of the speed of sound within the interface in the solutions due to the replacement diminish with increasing resolution when reasonable solution can be obtained with Wood speed of sound. For cavitating/expansion problems in physical fluid mixture, it is pointed out and explained why acoustics in the numerical solutions still propagate at the Wood speed of sound (therefore consistent with the reduced five-equation model) even though in some cases a much higher speed of sound like the numerical replacement above for solving the reduced five-equation model or the frozen speed of sound for solving a six-equation model is used for the estimates of wave speeds in the HLLC scheme. A variant of the five-equation two-phase flow model by Saurel et al. (2008) [R. Saurel, F. Petitpas, R. Abgrall, 2008. Modelling phase transition in metastable liquids: application to cavitating and flashing flows, J. Fluid Mech. 607, 313–350] is then constructed for liquid-vapor phase transition in cavitating flows. The relaxation toward thermo-chemical equilibrium during phase transition is achieved by solving a simple system of algebraic equations for the equilibrium state variables for better efficiency, following Pelanti and Shyue (2014) [M. Pelanti, K.-M. Shyue, 2014. A mixture-energy-consistent six-equation two-phase numerical model for fluid with interfaces, cavitation and evaporation waves. J. Comput. Phys. 259, 331–357]. Therefore, the current model retains both the simplicity afforded by the five-equation model and the efficiency of the algebraic relaxation solver. An alternative algebraic approach for handling the non-conservative term (the so-called K∇ · u term) in the reduced five-equation model for mechanical equilibrium of a liquid-vapor mixture is also explored by enforcing the thermal equilibrium at the same time. Finally, numerical results of sample tests in both one and two dimensions in the literature as well as that in three dimensions demonstrate the effectiveness and ability of the proposed model to simulate cavitating flows. An interesting mechanism of shock generation by acoustics in water due to phase transition is then found by the numerical simulations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Densification of non-radioactive porous siliceous particles loaded with cesium potassium copper hexacyanoferrate by spark plasma sintering

In the development of a conditioning process for cesium-bearing sorbents from the decontamination of aqueous waste streams, the treatment of a granular material composed of (Cs,K) 2 CuFe(CN) 6 loaded onto mesoporous silica particles has been investigated in an additive-free two-step conditioning process involving (i) calcination at 1000 °C to remove volatile species and (ii) densification by spark plasma sintering. A 92.0 % dense pellet was obtained after 10 min sintering at 850 °C under 100 MPa. Density and microstructural measurements indicate that densification is first driven by the viscous flow of a vitreous phase containing Cs, formed during calcination. Additionally, the density of the sample then increases further during sintering by grain boundary diffusion. However, a limited but non negligible part of cesium is lost during densification.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Stress and Strain Heterogeneity and Persistence in Uniaxially‐ and Triaxially‐Loaded Sandstone

Two critical questions in brittle rock mechanics are how rocks developed localized strains and to what extent internal stress heterogeneity controls this localization and subsequent macroscopic failure. Definitive answers have not yet been found, but would provide insight into rock fracture mechanics as relevant to hydrocarbon extraction and sequestration. Here, we use synchrotron X‐ray tomography (XRT) and 3D X‐ray diffraction (3DXRD) during uniaxial and triaxial tests on Nugget and Bentheimer sandstones to examine strain and stress localization prior to mechanical failure. 3DXRD was used to measure intra‐granular lattice strains which were used to compute elastic stress tensors of each grain. Digital volume correlation (DVC) was applied to XRT images to determine the strain field in the sample. Both samples featured marked spatial heterogeneity, localization, and temporal persistence of elevated stresses and strains during their mechanical deformation toward failure. Both samples featured a majority of grains with at least one principal stress component that was tensile, a signature of the influence of heterogeneity on stress transmission. Measurements further revealed that compressive stress orientations and statistics evolved in a similar manner to those of inter‐particle forces in loose granular materials, with triaxially‐compressed rock exhibiting enhanced grain stress heterogeneity compared to uniaxially‐compressed rock. Our results complement recent work by others who employed XRT and scanning 3DXRD to study triaxially‐compressed sandstone, but extend those results to uniaxial compression, sandstones of varied porosity, and grain stress measurements throughout the 3D full extent of the samples rather than in a single layer examined with scanning 3DXRD.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Discrepancy in the Critical State Void Ratio of Poorly Graded Sand due to Shear Strain Localization

The critical state (CS) concept is a theoretical framework that models the constitutive behavior of soils, including sand and other granular materials. It supports the notion of a unique postfailure state, where the soil ultimately experiences continuous shearing with no change in the plastic volumetric strain. However, the published literature has frequently noted the nonconvergence of sand specimens with different initial densities to a unique CS in the compression plane due to many factors such as specimen fabric, particle morphology, breakage, and grain size distribution. This paper examines the CS for poorly graded (uniform) glass beads and 3 different types of silica sands using 50 conventional triaxial compression (CTC) experiments, 12 oedometer tests, and in situ synchrotron microcomputed tomography (SMT) scans for 10 CTC experiments. The results of the 50 CTC experiments revealed a diffused CS zone in the compression plane, which was further examined using the in situ SMT scans. A thorough three-dimensional image analysis of the SMT scans accurately quantified the evolution of the local void ratio (elocal) versus axial compression within zones of intensive shearing toward the center of the specimen. The evolution of the void ratio was also measured using the entire volume of the specimen (eglobal). At the CS, the elocal/eglobal ratio was assessed to be ~1.25 when a single shear band developed within the scanned specimens and ~1.1-1.15 for specimens that failed via external bulging that was internally manifested by the development of multiple shear bands. This finding suggests that the CS zone in the compression plane can be attributed to the common wrong consideration of eglobal evolution in lieu of elocal within the developing shear bands. Furthermore, the lack of shear band development in uniaxial compression has made the results of the oedometer test reliable in quantifying the CS parameters in the compression plane.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Influence of Pore Water on the Fracture of Silica Sand at Particle Scale

The fracture of particles has a significant influence on the engineering behavior of granular materials. There are no reported conclusive answers in the literature to explain the influence of pore water on the fracture of sand, gravel, railroad ballast rock, aggregates, rockfill, and so on. Here, in this paper, two novel techniques were adopted to investigate the influence of pore water on the fracture of natural silica sand at the particle scale. The three-dimensional (3D) synchrotron microcomputed tomography (SMT) imaging technique was used to acquire and analyze multiple 3D images of specimens composed of wetted silica sand that were subjected to confined one-dimensional (1D) compression loading up to the fracture stage. A few representative particles were identified and digitally separated from the liquid water and gas phases. The 3D SMT images offer clear experimental evidence of the phase transition of water from liquid to gas within the opening cracks. In addition, a computational fluid dynamics numerical simulation framework for water flow into an opening crack was adopted and the results show that the fast opening of the crack induced cavitation, water phase transition, and water hammer effects. The results of the numerical simulations agree with the confined 1D compression experiments where the onset of the bubbles (gas phase) within the crack is mainly generated during the secondary cavitation stage, and the generated bubble near the crack mouth opening resulted from the primary cavitation, which was directly caused by the crack expansion. The results reported in this paper present a new cavitation phenomenon that occurs during particle fracture, which offers a physics-based explanation of why water-wetted sand fractures at smaller stresses than dry and can pave the way for more in-depth future studies on the fracture of water-wetted sand.

cavitation↗

DOE OSTI2025

X-Ray Microtomography Measurements of Coevolving Particle Size and Shape

This study measures simultaneous changes in particle size and shape during grain crushing and proposes quantitative metrics to track their coevolving statistical distribution. Idealized granular materials with widely different initial particle shapes (i.e., spheres, quasi-ellipsoids, plates, and rods) are compressed oedometrically at vertical stress levels sufficient to induce particle breakage. X-ray microtomography and digital image analysis are then used to track changes in particle-scale characteristics. The observations indicate that more irregular particles tend to exhibit a higher degree of breakage compared to more spherical grains subjected to an equivalent stress level. Despite these differences, the measurements also indicate that all the tested particle sets approach a common attractor (expressed in terms of aspect ratio, flatness, and elongation), regardless of their initial morphology. A new shape evolution index is proposed to quantify such trends. With this new metric, it is shown that in all the tested materials, the particle shape evolves faster than size, especially for the more regular morphologies, thus implying that the shape tends to reach its attractor point before the grading reaches its ultimate particle size distribution. Furthermore, this finding underpins an ultimate stage of crushing-driven compression that occurs with particle size reduction but minimal shape changes (i.e., self-replicating shapes due to fractures).

Oedometric compression↗

DOE OSTI2021

Empty perovskites as Coulomb floppy networks: Entropic elasticity and negative thermal expansion

Floppy networks (FNs) provide valuable insight into the origin of anomalous mechanical and thermal properties in soft matter systems, from polymers, rubber, and biomolecules to glasses and granular materials. Here, we use the same FN concept to construct a quantitative microscopic theory of empty perovskites, a family of crystals with ReO 3 structure, which exhibit a number of unusual properties. One remarkable example is ScF 3 , which shows a near-zero-temperature structural instability and large negative thermal expansion (NTE). Furthermore, we trace these effects to an FN-like crystalline architecture formed by strong nearest-neighbor bonds, which is stabilized by net electrostatic repulsion that plays a role similar to osmotic pressure in polymeric gels. NTE in these crystalline solids, which we conceptualize as Coulomb floppy networks, emerges from the tension effect of Coulomb repulsion combined with the FN's entropic elasticity and has the same physical origin as in gels and rubber. Our theory provides an accurate, quantitative description of phonons, thermal expansion, compressibility, and structural phase diagram, all in excellent agreement with experiments. The entropic stabilization of critical soft modes, which play only a secondary role in NTE, explains the observed phase diagram. Significant entropic elasticity resolves the puzzle of a marked, ≈50% discrepancy between the experimentally observed bulk modulus and ab initio calculations. The Coulomb FN approach is potentially applicable to other important materials with markedly covalent bonds, from perovskite oxides to iron chalcogenides, whose anomalous vibrational and structural properties are still poorly understood.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2022

Large-scale frictionless jamming with power-law particle size distributions

Due to significant computational expense, discrete element method simulations of jammed packings of size-dispersed spheres with size ratios greater than 1:10 have remained elusive, limiting the correspondence between simulations and real-world granular materials with large size dispersity. Here, invoking a recently developed neighbor binning algorithm, we generate mechanically stable jammed packings of frictionless spheres with power-law size distributions containing up to nearly 4 000 000 particles with size ratios up to 1:100. By systematically varying the width and exponent of the underlying power laws, we analyze the role of particle size distributions on the structure of jammed packings. The densest packings are obtained for size distributions that balance the relative abundance of large-large and small-small particle contacts. Although the proportion of rattler particles and mean coordination number strongly depend on the size distribution, the mean coordination of nonrattler particles attains the frictionless isostatic value of six in all cases. The size distribution of nonrattler particles that participate in the load-bearing network exhibits no dependence on the width of the total particle size distribution beyond a critical particle size for low-magnitude exponent power laws. This signifies that only particles with sizes greater than the critical particle size contribute to the mechanical stability. However, for high-magnitude exponent power laws, all particle sizes participate in the mechanical stability of the packing.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Collisional-energy-cascade model for nonthermal velocity distributions of neutral atoms in plasmas

Nonthermal velocity distributions with much greater tails than a Maxwellian have been observed for radical atoms in plasmas for a long time. Historically, such velocity distributions have been modeled by a two-temperature Maxwell distribution. In this paper, I propose a model based on collisional energy cascade, which has been studied in the field of granular materials. In the collisional energy cascade, a particle ensemble undergoes energy input at the high-energy region, entropy production by elastic collisions among particles, and energy dissipation. For radical atoms, energy input may be caused by the Franck-Condon energy of molecular dissociation or charge-exchange collision with hot ions, and the input energy is eventually dissipated by collisions with the walls. Here, I show that the steady-state velocity distribution in the collisional energy cascade is approximated by the generalized Mittag-Leffler distribution, which is a one-parameter extension of the Maxwell distribution. This parameter indicates the degree of the nonthermality and is related to the relative importance of energy dissipation over entropy production. This model is compared with a direct molecular dynamics simulation for simplified gaseous systems with energy input, as well as some experimentally observed velocity distributions of light radicals in plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fractal dimensions of jammed packings with power-law particle size distributions in two and three dimensions

Static structure factors are computed for large-scale, mechanically stable, jammed packings of frictionless spheres (three dimensions) and disks (two dimensions) with broad, power-law size dispersity characterized by the exponent -β. Here, the static structure factor exhibits diverging power-law behavior for small wave numbers, allowing us to identify a structural fractal dimension d f . In three dimensions, d f ≈ 2.0 for 2.5≤ β ≤ 3.8, such that each of the structure factors can be collapsed onto a universal curve. In two dimensions, we instead find 1.0≲ d f ≲1.34 for 2.1≤ β ≤ 2.9. Furthermore, we show that the fractal behavior persists when rattler particles are removed, indicating that the long-wavelength structural properties of the packings are controlled by the large particle backbone conferring mechanical rigidity to the system. A numerical scheme for computing structure factors for triclinic unit cells is presented and employed to analyze the jammed packings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Micromechanical origin of heat transfer to granular flow

Heat transfer across a granular flow is comprised of two resistances in series : near the wall and within the bulk particle bed, neither of which is well understood due to the lack of experimental probes to separate their respective contribution. Here, we use a frequency modulated photothermal technique to separately quantify the thermal resistances in the near-wall and the bulk bed regions of particles in flowing states. Compared to the stationary state, the flowing leads to a higher near-wall resistance and a lower thermal conductivity of bulk beds. As a result, coupled with discrete element method simulation, we show that the near-wall resistance can be explained by particle diffusion in granular flows.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Coupled Dynamical Phase Transitions in Driven Disk Packings

Under the influence of oscillatory shear, a monolayer of frictional granular disks exhibits two dynamical phase transitions: a transition from an initially disordered state to an ordered crystalline state and a dynamic active-absorbing phase transition. Although there is no reason a priori for these to be at the same critical point, they are. Also, the transitions may also be characterized by the disk trajectories, which are nontrivial loops breaking time-reversal invariance.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2020

(U) PRAD0697 & PRAD0698: Complex Loading of CeO₂ Powder

Cerium(IV) oxide (CeO₂) powder is shock compressed using the Precision High Energy-density Liner Implosion eXperiment (PHELIX) platform. Experimental results are compared against several modeling approaches. Compaction behavior is best captured with a P-∝ model, which calculates CeO₂ powder bulk densities within 80-99% of experimental values but overpredicts densi cation at the cylindrical target's outer radius and center by up to 20%. Preliminary calculations suggest that accuracy could be increased with the inclusion of a coupled strength model. Several common computational modeling approaches for the shock compression response of granular materials and the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) force upon the impactor/liner in pulsed power compression experiments are investigated and analyzed for their validity. The Bi-linear Ramp, P-∝ PACXP, and P-∝ Menikoff-Kober continuum compaction models are calibrated to planar impact Hugoniot data for CeO₂ powder and used to predict the powder's shock compaction response under non-planar shock wave compression. MHD calculations of the PHELIX pulsed power driver are performed using an idealized resistor-inductor-capacitor (RLC) circuit calibrated to previous experiments. All simulations are performed using the LANL code FLAG. Two validation experiments are computationally designed using the calibrated compaction and circuit models, executed using the PHELIX platform on CeO₂ targets with initial porous densities of 3.95 and 4.03 g/cm³, measured with proton radiography, and analyzed against the model predictions. The two P-∝ models more accurately describe CeO₂ powder densi cation than the Bi-linear Ramp model. However, the two P-∝ models overpredict bulk density of the shock compressed CeO₂ powder by up to 20% when the appropriate impact velocities are applied. MHD calculations for both validation experiments underpredict liner impact velocities by 4-11% when using the idealized RLC circuit model calibrated to previous experiments. Compensating underpredictions of impact velocity and overpredictions of powder densication lead to a false accuracy in pre-shot calculations compared to experimental data. To improve correlation between simulations and experiments, the following improvements are suggested: 1. A coupled strength model for CeO₂ powder that updates strength as a function of porosity and applied stress. 2. An improved MHD circuit model that more accurately captures the PHELIX machine.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Represent precipitation-induced geological hazards in Earth system models using artificial intelligence

Precipitation-induced geological hazards, such as debris flow, landslides, mudflow and rockfalls (hereafter referred to as landslides), pose serious threats to public safety in many areas through the world. As residential properties and infrastructure in the US have increasingly expanded into landslide-prone areas and the drivers of landslides (e.g., wildfires and hurricanes) are predicted to intensify under climate warming, losses and fatalities from landslides are likely to increase in the future. Although our understanding of geoenvironmental factors and mechanisms contributing to landslides has greatly improved, only moderate progress has been made in predicting landslides out of well-studied watersheds. Furthermore, explicitly representing various landslide-related processes in Earth system models (ESMs), from the buckling of local bearing elements in granular materials, to frictional sliding between grains, formation of microcracks in the soil matrix, rupture of capillary bridges, or breakage of plant roots3 is still very unlikely within the next decade, even with the help of exascale computers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗