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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic neural networks for fluid flow surrogate modeling and data recovery

We consider the use of probabilistic neural networks for fluid flow surrogate modeling and data recovery. This framework is constructed by assuming that the target variables are sampled from a Gaussian distribution conditioned on the inputs. Consequently, the overall formulation sets up a procedure to predict the hyperparameters of this distribution which are then used to compute an objective function given training data. We demonstrate that this framework has the ability to provide for prediction confidence intervals based on the assumption of a probabilistic posterior, given an appropriate model architecture and adequate training data. The applicability of the present framework to cases with noisy measurements and limited observations is also assessed. To demonstrate the capabilities of this framework, we consider canonical regression problems of fluid dynamics from the viewpoint of reduced-order modeling and spatial data recovery for four canonical data sets. The examples considered in this study arise from (i) the shallow-water equations, (ii) a two-dimensional cylinder flow, (iii) the wake of a NACA0012 airfoil with a Gurney flap, and (iv) the NOAA sea surface temperature data set. Furthermore, the present results indicate that the probabilistic neural network not only produces a machine-learning-based fluid flow surrogate model but also systematically quantifies the uncertainty therein to assist with model interpretability.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fingerprinting Brownian Motions of Polymers under Flow

Here, we present a quantitative approach to the self-dynamics of polymers under steady flow by employing a set of complementary reference frames and extending the spherical harmonic expansion technique to dynamic density correlations. Application of this method to nonequilibrium molecular dynamics simulations of polymer melts reveals a number of universal features. For both unentangled and entangled melts, the center-of-mass motions in the flow frame are described by superdiffusive, anisotropic Gaussian distributions, whereas the isotropic component of monomer self-dynamics in the center-of-mass frame is strongly suppressed. Spatial correlation analysis shows that the heterogeneity of monomer self-dynamics increases significantly under flow.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spin dynamics and a nearly continuous magnetic phase transition in an entropy-stabilized oxide antiferromagnet

In this work, the magnetic order and the spin dynamics in the antiferromagnetic entropy-stabilized oxide (Mg 0.2 Co 0.2 Ni 0.2 Cu 0.2 Zn 0.2 )O (MgO-ESO) have been studied using muon spin relaxation (μSR) and inelastic neutron scattering. We find that antiferromagnetic order develops gradually in the sample volume as it is cooled below 140 K, becoming fully ordered around 100 K. The spin dynamics show a critical slowing down in the vicinity of the transition, and the magnetic order parameter grows continuously in the ordered state. These results indicate that the antiferromagnetic transition is continuous but proceeds with a Gaussian distribution of ordering temperatures. Additionally, the magnetic contribution to the specific heat determined from inelastic neutron scattering likewise shows a broad feature centered around 120 K. High-resolution inelastic neutron scattering further reveals an initially gapped spectrum at low temperature which sees an increase in a quasielastic contribution upon heating until the ordering temperature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Designing an Intrusion Detection for an Adjustable Speed Drive System Controlling a Critical Process

In this article, we address the cyber-security problem of industrial control systems (ICSs) when their sensor measurements may be compromised due to an attacker who has intercepted those measurements via a network. We introduce a general-purpose method “Dynamic Watermarking (DW)” to detect potential cyber-intrusions on speed sensor measurements within industrial control systems, which deploy an adjustable speed drive (ASD) to control a critical process. The DW method is injecting a random private low-amplitude signal with a zero mean Gaussian distribution, “watermark”, into one of the input phase voltages powering the ASD system. The watermark signal propagates through the system including pulse width modulation (PWM) power conversion stage and motor, then ultimately appears in the speed sensor measurements. By deploying two statistical DW tests with two proper thresholds, the system can detect potential cyber-intrusions or unobservable cyber-attacks such as replay attacks and false data injection attacks (FDIA). The DW method tested on a laboratory-scale ASD system experimentally to protect the system against cyber-intrusions. This system, powered by a commercial PWM drive operating at 208 V, 3-phase, and 3.7 kW, served as our experimental platform.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Short-Term Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Reinforcement Learning over ECMWF

In this paper, we present an innovative reinforcement learning approach for short-term solar forecasting, leveraging data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The methodology begins with the application of the System Advisor Model (SAM) to transform various ECMWF numerical weather prediction members into predictive photovoltaic power generation. To enhance the precision of deterministic forecasting, we introduce a dynamic model selection algorithm based on Q-learning. This algorithm dynamically identifies and utilizes the most accurate ensemble member for forecasting purposes. Furthermore, we employ a support vector regression surrogate model with a Gaussian distribution to generate probabilistic forecasts, providing a holistic view of solar energy generation uncertainty. To expedite the training process and make it more practical for real-world applications, we integrate a rolling update workflow. This innovative workflow reduces the training period from months to a mere 19 days, making our method highly efficient. Numerical results of the case study show that in comparison to benchmark models, the proposed method improves the deterministic and probabilistic solar forecasting accuracy by up to 40.84% and 48.42%, respectively.

ensemble forecasting↗
DOE OSTI2026

Efficient Probabilistic Visualization of Local Divergence of 2D Vector Fields with Independent Gaussian Uncertainty

This work focuses on visualizing uncertainty of local divergence of two-dimensional vector fields. Divergence is one of the fundamental attributes of fluid flows, as it can help domain scientists analyze potential positions of sources (positive divergence) and sinks (negative divergence) in the flow. However, uncertainty inherent in vector field data can lead to erroneous divergence computations, adversely impacting downstream analysis. While Monte Carlo (MC) sampling is a classical approach for estimating divergence uncertainty, it suffers from slow convergence and poor scalability with increasing data size and sample counts. Thus, we present a two-fold contribution that tackles the challenges of slow convergence and limited scalability of the MC approach. (1) We derive a closed-form approach for highly efficient and accurate uncertainty visualization of local divergence, assuming independently Gaussian-distributed vector uncertainties. (2) We further integrate our approach into Viskores, a platform-portable parallel library, to accelerate uncertainty visualization. In our results, we demonstrate significantly enhanced efficiency and accuracy of our serial analytical (speed-up up to 1946×) and parallel Viskores (speed-up up to 19698×) algorithms over the classical serial MC approach. We also demonstrate qualitative improvements of our probabilistic divergence visualizations over traditional mean-field visualization, which disregards uncertainty. We validate the accuracy and efficiency of our methods on wind forecast and ocean simulation datasets.

Ouermi, Timbwaoga [University of Utah]↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ultrawide bandgap vertical β-(Al x Ga1 −x )2O3 Schottky barrier diodes on free-standing β-Ga2O3 substrates

Ultrawide bandgap β-(AlxGa1−x)2O3 vertical Schottky barrier diodes on (010) β-Ga2O3 substrates are demonstrated. The β-(AlxGa1−x)2O3 epilayer has an Al composition of 21% and a nominal Si doping of 2 × 1017 cm−3 grown by molecular beam epitaxy. Pt/Ti/Au has been employed as the top Schottky contact, whereas Ti/Au has been utilized as the bottom Ohmic contact. The fabricated devices show excellent rectification with a high on/off ratio of ∼109, a turn-on voltage of 1.5 V, and an on-resistance of 3.4 mΩ cm2. Temperature-dependent forward current-voltage characteristics show effective Schottky barrier height varied from 0.91 to 1.18 eV while the ideality factor from 1.8 to 1.1 with increasing temperatures, which is ascribed to the inhomogeneity of the metal/semiconductor interface. The Schottky barrier height was considered a Gaussian distribution of potential, where the extracted mean barrier height and a standard deviation at zero bias were 1.81 and 0.18 eV, respectively. A comprehensive analysis of the device leakage was performed to identify possible leakage mechanisms by studying temperature-dependent reverse current-voltage characteristics. At reverse bias, due to the large Schottky barrier height, the contributions from thermionic emission and thermionic field emission are negligible. By fitting reverse leakage currents at different temperatures, it was identified that Poole–Frenkel emission and trap-assisted tunneling are the main leakage mechanisms at high- and low-temperature regimes, respectively. Electrons can tunnel through the Schottky barrier assisted by traps at low temperatures, while they can escape these traps at high temperatures and be transported under high electric fields. This work can serve as an important reference for the future development of ultrawide bandgap β-(AlxGa1−x)2O3 power electronics, RF electronics, and ultraviolet photonics.

Materials Science↗
DOE OSTI2024

Low-temperature electrical properties and barrier inhomogeneities in ITO/β-Ga2O3 Schottky diode

This study reports the electronic properties of the indium tin oxide (ITO)/β-Ga2O3 Schottky diode through the temperature (50–320 K)-dependent current density–voltage, capacitance–voltage, and admittance spectroscopy experiments. The room-temperature turn-on voltage of the ITO/β-Ga2O3 diode was observed to be 0.83 V, and it exhibited a slow increase with decreasing temperature. The ITO/β-Ga2O3 diode's ideality factor (n) varied from 3.92 to 1.05, and the zero-bias Schottky barrier height (φbo) varied from 0.31 to 1.28 eV. The temperature-dependent n and φbo indicate the spatial inhomogeneities of the potential barrier at the Ga2O3-ITO interface. We exploit the Gaussian distribution model to explain the Schottky barrier inhomogeneities, which could be associated with the defects observed by the admittance spectroscopy method.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2021

Structure Perception in 3D Point Clouds

Understanding human perception is critical to the design of effective visualizations. The relative benefits of using 2D versus 3D techniques for data visualization is a complex decision space, with varying levels of uncertainty and disagreement in both the literature and in practice. This study aims to add easily reproducible, empirical evidence on the role of depth cues in perceiving structures or patterns in 3D point clouds. We describe a method to synthesize a 3D point cloud that contains a 3D structure, where 2D projections of the data strongly resemble a Gaussian distribution. We performed a within-subjects structure identification study with 128 participants that compared scatterplot matrices (canonical 2D projections) and 3D scatterplots under three types of motion: rotation, xy-translation, and z-translation. We found that users could consistently identify three separate hidden structures under rotation, while those structures remained hidden in the scatterplot matrices and under translation. This work contributes a set of 3D point clouds that provide definitive examples of 3D patterns perceptible in 3D scatterplots under rotation but imperceptible in 2D scatterplots.

data analysis↗
DOE OSTI2026

3D Gaussian Splatting for Volume Compression

This codebase uses machine learning to train a collection of 3D Gaussian distributions to approximate scientific volume data. Because this collection uses less memory than the original dataset, it can be used as a compressed model of the original data for applications such as visualization.

Dyken, Landon↗
DOE OSTI2024

Earth System Reanalysis in Support of Climate Model Improvements

Recent climate model developments, established through increased model resolution, have led to substantial improvements in model simulations of the time-evolving, coupled Earth system and its subcomponents. However, regardless of resolution, climate models will always produce climate features and variability that differ from the real world and will be prone to biases. This is due to many remaining uncertainties, such as in parametric and structural model uncertainty, in the initial conditions prescribed, and in the prescribed (scenario) forcing which varies on decadal to centennial timescales. Further model improvements are expected to arise specifically from improved representation of physical processes realized through model-data fusion. This will create an unprecedented opportunity to better exploit a large array of Earth observations, from in situ measurements to weather radars and satellite observations, as the resolved scales of the models approach those of the observations. For this, climate DA will be the central tool to bring models and observations into consistency, by improving initial conditions, inferring uncertain model parameters and structure, and quantifying uncertainty. Generally, there will be advantages and complementarities of adjoint-based smoother approaches, ensemble-based filter approaches, or new ML-inspired approaches. Yet, the ever-increasing model resolution will present growing challenges arising from computational cost, calling for new ways of performing data assimilation and model optimization. Using the complementarity in a hybrid approach, blending tools and concepts from variational, ensemble and ML methods might be what is required in the future. In this context ML could be important to handle non-linear responses, and to better approximate non-Gaussian distributions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiclass Classification Using Bayesian Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines

We present a new Bayesian model for the problem of multiclass classification. In this model, the probabilities of class membership of a given observation are determined by the mean of a latent Gaussian distribution. The mean functions of this latent distribution consist of combinations of highly flexible basis functions of the inputs: multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), first developed for multiple regression. We use reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo to make inference on the classification model, including the number of basis functions. We compare the probabilistic classification performance of our proposed approach to existing methods on simulated and benchmark data, and compare uncertainty estimates on simulated data. Our proposed method compares favorably with existing Bayesian and frequentist multiclass classification methods in out-of-sample probabilistic classification, and uncertainty estimation of these probabilistic classifications. We examine the fit of the proposed method to a data set of hurricane storm surge levels near Delaware Bay, US, and conclude that sea level rise is a key contributor to damage delivered by storm surge.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

On the Solution of ℓ 0 -Constrained Sparse Inverse Covariance Estimation Problems

The sparse inverse covariance matrix is used to model conditional dependencies between variables in a graphical model to fit a multivariate Gaussian distribution. Estimating the matrix from data are well known to be computationally expensive for large-scale problems. Sparsity is employed to handle noise in the data and to promote interpretability of a learning model. Although the use of a convex ℓ 1 regularizer to encourage sparsity is common practice, the combinatorial ℓ 0 penalty often has more favorable statistical properties. In this paper, we directly constrain sparsity by specifying a maximally allowable number of nonzeros, in other words, by imposing an ℓ 0 constraint. Here, we introduce an efficient approximate Newton algorithm using warm starts for solving the nonconvex ℓ 0 -constrained inverse covariance learning problem. Numerical experiments on standard data sets show that the performance of the proposed algorithm is competitive with state-of-the-art methods.

$\ell_0$-Constrained↗
DOE OSTI2021

Transverse Beam Tails and Beam Lifetime in the EIC Electron Storage Ring

For most storage ring design purposes it is sufficient to assume a Gaussian distribution of the electrons in a bunch. However, a more detailed knowledge of the population in the transverse tails beyond a few sigma is necessary to predict the beam lifetime and the synchrotron radiation load in the interaction region due to beam-gas scattering and the beam-beam interaction. This report presents simulations to determine the required vacuum level as well as to serve as input data for detailed synchrotron radiation simulations.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

PV-Finder: ML Based Algorithm for Primary Vertex Identification

he CMS detector at the High-Luminosity Large Hadron Collider (HL-LHC) will operate in challenging conditions with expected pile-up of up to 200 collisions per bunch crossing, necessitating the development of a more resilient primary vertex (PV) reconstruction method to ensure the integrity of data analysis and the efficiency of the CMS triggering system. This contribution describes preliminary studies on a new ML based PV-Finder method for PV identification. The method is based on a model trained using Kernel Density Estimations (KDEs) derived from the positions of reconstructed tracks at the beamline, incorporating uncertainties from track parameters. It also utilizes target histograms, modeled as Gaussian distributions centered on the actual ground truth values of specific primary vertices.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Analysis of Long-Term Degradation of Microwave Cavity Flow Sensor

We are investigating a microwave resonant cavity transducer for flow sensing in the vessel of a high temperature fluid advanced reactor (AR), such as a molten salt cooled reactor (MSCR) or a sodium fast reactor (SFR). This transducer is a hollow metallic cylindrical cavity, with the flat wall of the cylinder flexible enough to undergo microscopic deflection due to dynamic fluid pressure. Membrane deflection leads to a shift in the resonant frequency, which can be detected with a spectrum analyzer. We have performed a proof-of-concept experiment of flow sensing with the transducer in liquid sodium at 340°C in impinging liquid jet geometry. The transducer remained in liquid sodium for 70 days. After removal, no structural damage was observed, and the expected transducer response was verified in a water test. Because long-term (multi-year) experimental tests of transducer resilience to harsh environment are not practical, we have developed a probabilistic model of creep to estimate transducer resilience to the harsh environment. The probabilistic model considers diffusion creep under the condition of high temperature and low stress, where the stress and temperature are allowed to be random variables with Gaussian distributions. Using the probabilistic model, we estimate inelastic membrane deflections due to creep for several temperature ranges. We conclude that for temperatures less than 650°C, creep has negligible long-term effect on the transducer performance. Since a yellowish residue was observed on the transducer surface after 70 days of immersion in liquid sodium, we have investigated possible evidence of corrosion. Chromium depletion is a typical indicator of the corrosion process in stainless steel. Scraping off a residue from the transducer and performing scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with energy dispersive analysis (EDS) did not find any chromium in the residue. Approximately 60% of the residue consisted of copper, which can be attributed to contamination of sodium due to powder residue from machining of copper and brass components of the transducer.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Computing the Instantaneous Collision Probability between Satellites using Characteristic Function Inversion

The probability that two satellites overlap in space at a specified instant of time is called their instantaneous collision probability. Assuming Gaussian uncertainties and spherical satellites, this probability is the integral of a Gaussian distribution over a sphere. This paper shows how to compute the probability using an established numerical procedure called characteristic function inversion. The collision probability in the short-term encounter scenario is also evaluated with this approach, where the instant at which the probability is computed is the time of closest approach between the objects. Python and R code is provided to evaluate the probability in practice. Overall, the approach has been established for over fifty years, is implemented in existing software, does not rely on analytical approximations, and can be used to evaluate two and three dimensional collision probabilities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗