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At least 199 records · Page 11

Uncertainty quantification for competing failure mechanisms in unidirectionally reinforced carbon–carbon composites

Microstructure-informed finite element models play a key role in the carbon–carbon composite design process. Variability in manufacturing process parameters and experimental limitations introduce model parameter uncertainty. This study quantifies the effect of model parameter uncertainty on transverse tensile fracture behavior and proposes a methodology to predict the failure mode based on competing microscale damage mechanisms. Finite element simulations incorporate fiber–matrix interface debonding with cohesive zones and matrix damage with a smeared crack band approach in a unidirectional carbon–carbon composite. Results from a variance-based global sensitivity analysis identifies interfacial and matrix damage parameters as the primary source of variability in fracture behavior. Sobol’ indices indicate that matrix and cohesive zone strengths contribute 94% of the variance in the effective ultimate stress. A local analysis elucidates the relationship between these constituent strength parameters and failure mode by estimating the probability of cohesive, matrix, and mixed-mode dominated failure. Based on the results for 4000 simulations, 93% exhibit mixed-mode or interfacial dominated failure, which underscores the crucial role of fiber–matrix interface debonding in the transverse tensile failure of carbon–carbon composites. These uncertainty quantification results facilitate more efficient model calibration and provide a framework for microstructure-informed failure predictions in the face of manufacturing-induced uncertainty.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Boosting efficiency and reducing graph reliance: Basis adaptation integration in Bayesian multi-fidelity networks

The computational cost of high-fidelity numerical models makes outer-loop analysis, which requires repeated interrogation of the model such as uncertainty quantification, computationally demanding. Multi-fidelity methods, which construct a surrogate model using data from an ensemble of models of varying cost and accuracy, can substantially reduce the cost of outer-loop analysis. However, these methods can be difficult to apply when the model ensemble does not admit a clear hierarchy a priori and the correlations between models are low. Consequently, in this paper, we present a multi-fidelity method that leverages dimension reduction to enhance the correlation between models, thereby reducing the amount of data needed to train a surrogate from an unordered ensemble of models. Our method utilizes basis adaptation to build low-dimensional polynomial chaos expansions of each model and employs Multi-fidelity Networks to encode the relationships among models. We show that the resulting method exhibit two notable advantages over its counterpart: (1) enhanced accuracy (both reduced bias and variance); and (2) reduced dependency on the graph structure encoding relationships among models. We demonstrate the approach on an analytical test problem and a challenging finite element model for a spent nuclear fuel. Our method produces a surrogate model that is significantly more accurate than either a single-fidelity surrogate or a multi-fidelity surrogate constructed without basis adaptation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A statistical mechanics framework for polymer chain scission, based on the concepts of distorted bond potential and asymptotic matching

To design increasingly tough, resilient, and fatigue-resistant elastomers and hydrogels, the relationship between controllable network parameters at the molecular level (bond type, non-uniform chain length, entanglement density, etc.) to macroscopic quantities that govern damage and failure must be established. Many of the most successful constitutive models for elastomers have been rooted in statistical mechanical treatments of polymer chains. Typically, such constitutive models have used variants of the freely jointed chain model with rigid links. However, since the free energy state of a polymer chain is dominated by enthalpic bond distortion effects as the chain approaches its rupture point, bond extensibility ought to be accounted for if the model is intended to capture chain rupture. To that end, a new bond potential is supplemented to the freely jointed chain model (as derived in the u FJC framework of Buche and Silberstein (2021) and Buche et al. (2022)), which we have extended to yield a tractable, closed-form model of single chain behavior that should be amenable to continuum-level constitutive model development. Inspired by the asymptotically matched u FJC model response in both the low/intermediate chain force and high chain force regimes, a simple, quasi-polynomial bond potential energy function is derived. This bond potential exhibits harmonic behavior near the equilibrium state and anharmonic behavior for large bond stretches tending to a characteristic energy plateau (akin to the Lennard-Jones and Morse bond potentials). Using this bond potential, approximate yet highly-accurate analytical functions for bond stretch and chain force dependent upon chain stretch are established. Then, using this polymer chain model, a stochastic thermal fluctuation-driven chain rupture framework is developed. This framework is based upon a force-modified tilted bond potential that accounts for distortional bond potential energy, allowing for the derivation and subsequent calculation of the dissipated chain scission energy. Here, the cases of rate-dependent and rate-independent scission are accounted for throughout the rupture framework. The impact of Kuhn segment number on chain rupture behavior is also investigated. The model is fit to single chain mechanical response data collected from atomic force microscopy tensile tests for validation and to glean deeper insight into the molecular physics taking place. Due to their analytical nature, this polymer chain model and the associated rupture framework can in the future be implemented in finite element models accounting for fracture and fatigue in polydisperse elastomer networks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Analytical modeling for redox flow battery design

Deeper market penetration of redox flow batteries requires optimization of the cell performance. Though important for optimization, detailed analytical solutions have not been developed for electrolyte flow, mass and charge transport, and reaction kinetics within redox flow batteries. To this end, here we present analytical solutions to active species concentration and over-potential based on advection-diffusion transport for ions and Bulter-Volmer model for interface reaction kinetics. The solutions were validated with results from a finite element model. These solutions were then applied to investigate the relationship between over-potential and state of charge, current density, reaction rate constant, flow velocity, diffusivity, total active species concentration, and electrode structure. Explicit formulas were identified for minimum activation over-potential and limiting current density as well as their dependence on electrolyte properties, operation conditions, and electrode structure. With our new mathematical formulas, this work provides a theoretical framework for flow battery design.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Structural modeling and dynamic analysis of condensate storage tanks in nuclear power plants

Condensate storage tanks (CSTs) in nuclear power plants (NPPs) are classified as critical equipment capable of surviving strong shaking in a design basis earthquake to assure the ability to subsequently provide cooling water. Structural modeling and dynamic analysis of CSTs are complicated due to fluid-structure interaction (FSI) and coupling issues, which could have significant effects on seismic response. The capability of a number of approximate models to capture seismic response is investigated using dynamic analysis results from detailed finite element models. Modal analyses and time history analyses are carried out using both 2D and 3D models to predict the dynamic behavior of CSTs as a function of ground motion intensity. Although 2D simplified models can be used to quickly evaluate the dynamic response of CSTs when there is substantial margin to failure, a detailed 3D model is required when it is necessary to examine a limit state associated with the failure mode of the tank. The findings show good agreement between the natural frequencies of convective modes determined from the 2D and 3D CST models. The difference between the frequencies of impulsive modes were found to be equal to or less than 25%.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The Use of Machine Learning Models for Predicting the Dielectric Strength of Gases

Technological advancements in high voltage systems have pushed sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) to its operational limits. Furthermore, this gas has other drawbacks including a high liquefaction temperature and a high global warming potential. Therefore, there has been an urgent need to find alternative gases with high dielectric strength (DS). In this work, density functional theory (DFT) is used to calculate molecular descriptors that are fed into an artificial neural network (ANN) and a random forest (RF). These machine learning (ML) models are then used to predict the DS for hundreds of molecules. A finite element model (FEM) is also used to calculate the electric field profile of multiple simple electrode geometries as the applied voltage to the system is increased. Results indicate that the random forest model has better generalization to unseen data than the neural network. The highest DS value predicted by the RF was 2.16 relative to the experimental DS of SF6. The results also demonstrate how choosing a gas with a higher DS and a geometry with minimal edges and corners can significantly increase the operating voltage of an electrical system. Due to its superior generalization, the RF represents the most promising path toward an accurate DS predictor once sufficient experimental data are available.

Mileski, Matthew [AFIT]↗

Advancements in Constitutive Model Calibration: Leveraging the Power of Full‐Field DIC Measurements and In Situ Load Path Selection for Reliable Parameter Inference

Accurate material characterization and model calibration are essential for computationally supported high-consequence engineering decisions. Historically, characterization and calibration methods (1) use simplified test specimen geometries and global data, (2) cannot guarantee that sufficient characterization data are collected for a specific model of interest, (3) use deterministic methods that provide best-fit parameter values with no uncertainty quantification, and (4) are sequential, inflexible, and time-consuming. This work brings together several recent advancements into an improved workflow called interlaced characterization and calibration (ICC) that advances the state-of-the-art in constitutive model calibration. The ICC paradigm (1) employs tools to efficiently use full-field data to calibrate high-fidelity material models, (2) aligns the data needed with the data collected by adopting an optimal experimental design protocol, (3) quantifies parameter uncertainty through Bayesian inference and (4) incorporates these advancements into a quasi real-time feedback loop. The ICC framework is demonstrated here on the calibration of a material model using simulated full-field data for an aluminium cruciform specimen being deformed biaxially. The cruciform is actively driven through the myopically preferred load path using Bayesian optimal experimental design, which selects load steps that yield the maximum expected information gain (EIG). Principal component analysis (PCA) is performed on the model predictions of full-field displacements, and fast surrogate models are built to approximate the input-output relationships of the expensive finite element model. Furthermore, the tools developed and demonstrated here show that high-fidelity constitutive models can be efficiently and reliably calibrated with quantified uncertainty, thus supporting credible decision-making and potentially increasing the agility of solid mechanics modelling by enabling utilization of computational simulations at earlier stages of the design cycle.

Bayesian optimal experimental design↗

Pore-Scale Study on the Positive Feedback Between Stress and Porosity Caused by Pressure Solution in Porous Media

Pressure solution is an important process in the evolution of sedimentary rocks, which provide storage space for most of our petroleum resources. It directly influences the generation, migration, and storage of petroleum fluids in subsurface sedimentary rocks. Here, in this paper, we develop a pore-scale, mechanochemical model to demonstrate a possible positive feedback between the local porosity and pore surface stress, in which a higher local porosity causes a higher local pore surface stress, thus enhancing pressure solution and consequently further increasing the local porosity. Pore surface stress represents stress on a solid grain adjacent to a pore. Specifically, the pore-scale, mechanochemical model directly simulates the stress distribution over solid and pore surfaces using a finite element model. The dissolution of solids at the solid-pore interfaces under a far-from-equilibrium condition is simulated using a first-order kinetics model that accounts for the local stress distribution. The updated pore geometry, caused by pore surface dissolution, is then used in the stress simulation in the next numerical iteration. Two types of porous media, the Oriskany sandstone and an artificial porous medium with spherical pores, were tested in the mechanochemical simulation. The positive stress-porosity feedback during pressure solution was observed in both samples. In addition, the model quantitatively illustrated the distribution of local mineral dissolution rates on all pore surfaces, as well as its relation to the effective mineral dissolution rate of the entire sample. Based on the comparison between the two porous media, the local mineral dissolution was regulated by pore space distribution, geometry, and coalescence during pressure solution. This work is the first that uses direct, pore-scale numerical simulation to demonstrate the positive stress-porosity feedback during pressure solution, which has the potential to advance the understanding of the mechanical-chemical (MC) coupling in many geological processes that are relevant to subsurface energy systems, such as the recovery of petroleum hydrocarbons and geothermal energy.

CT scanning↗

Power Law Hardening Fit for Inconel 718 Material

The objective of this work is to create an accurate elastic-plastic J2 plasticity model calibration for the Inconel 718 material at room temperature for use in finite element models. This calibration was made using a power-law hardening model of form σ = σ y + $Aε^{n}_{p}$ where A and n are empirically determined constants, and σ y is the proportional limit.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A numerical study of the meso-structure variability in the compaction process of prepreg platelet molded composites

Compaction deformations in a thermoplastic composite system molded from chopped prepreg platelets were analyzed to obtain statistical distributions of local distortions that define the final consolidated meso-structure. This study provides an insight into and allows quantification of the intrinsic geometric variability of the composite meso-structure that controls the variability of the effective composite mechanical properties. A two-phase viscoelastic finite element model was utilized to treat the behavior of molten prepreg platelets, which were assumed to be incompressible and inextensible in the fiber direction during processing. A two-step simulation procedure with discretely modeled platelets and platelet-to-platelet contacts is proposed. The analysis begins with a drop simulation of the uncontrolled material deposition followed by a 3D finite element analysis of the preform compaction and bulk material flow. The proposed model provides a method for generating a composite meso-structure ab initio starting from a statistical sampling of the initial conditions for platelet deposition. The predicted platelet thickness distribution, intra-platelet fiber waviness and out-of-plane platelet undulations were found to be in good agreement with experimental measurements. An estimate of the volume of resin pockets was inferred from the compaction simulation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Design of High-Deflection Foils MHK Applications - FEA models

The Ocean Renewable Power Company's (ORPC's) goal is to design, develop, and test hydrofoils with large deflections. The effects of the deflections on cross-flow turbine performance would be evaluated in order to inform design considerations for full-scale water turbines and other marine hydrokinetic devices. Finite element models - NASTRAN files Model scale turbines tested in UNH tow tank Model loads from CFD models

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Thickness dependence of piezo-bimorph adaptive mirror bending

A new generation of adaptive x-ray optics (AXO) is being installed on high-coherent-flux x-ray beamlines worldwide to correct and control the optical wavefront with sub-nm precision. These ultra-smooth mirrors achieve high reflectivities at glancing angles of incidence and can be hundreds of mm long. One type of adaptive x-ray mirror relies on piezoelectric ceramic strips which are segmented into channels and actuated to induce local, longitudinal bending, generating one-dimensional shape changes in the mirror substrate. A recently described mirror model uses a three-layer geometry with parallel actuators on the front and back surfaces of a thicker mirror substrate. By analogy to a solved problem in the thermal actuation of a tri-metal strip, we show that the achievable bending radius varies approximately as the square of the substrate thickness. We provide an analytic solution and simulate bending using a finite-element model.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Nonlinear Interface Reduction for Time-Domain Analysis of Hurty/Craig-Bampton Superelements with Frictional Contact

Virtual prototyping in engineering design relies today on modern numerical models of contacting structures with accurate resolution of interface mechanics, which strongly affect the system-level stiffness and energy dissipation due to frictional losses. High-fidelity modeling within the localized interfaces is required to resolve local quantities of interest that may drive design decisions. The high-resolution finite element meshes necessary to resolve inter-component stresses tend to be computationally expensive, particularly when the analyst is interested in response time histories. The Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) transformation is a widely used method in structural dynamics for reducing the interior portion of a finite element model while having the ability to retain all nonlinear contact degrees of freedom (DOF) in physical coordinates. These models may still require many DOF to adequately resolve the kinematics of the interface, leading to inadequate reduction and computational savings. This study proposes a novel interface reduction method to overcome these challenges by means of system-level characteristic constraint (SCC) modes and properly orthogonal interface modal derivatives (POIMDs) for transient dynamic analyses. Both SCC modes and POIMDs are computed using the reduced HCB mass and stiffness matrices, which can be directly computed from many commercial finite element analysis software. Comparison of time history responses to an impulse-type load in a mechanical beam assembly indicate that the interface-reduced model correlates well with the HCB truth model. Localized features like slip and contact area are well-represented in the time domain when the beam assembly is loaded with a broadband excitation. The proposed method also yields reduced-order models with greater critical timestep lengths for explicit integration schemes.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Modeling Stress-Induced Pore Water Pressures in The Vadose Zone Beneath a Composite-Lined Landfill - 20029

A finite-element model was developed to evaluate mechanisms contributing to positive pore pressures measured with sealed pressure transducers in the geological buffer beneath the Environmental Management Waste Management Facility, a composite-lined mixed waste disposal facility operated by the US Department of Energy. The geological buffer is a 3-m-thick engineered fine-textured layer directly beneath the Environmental Management Waste Management Facility's composite liner, and above the groundwater table. The model accounts for changes in pore water pressure resulting from (i) loading imposed by waste placed on the overlying liner, (ii) moistening of the geological buffer due to equilibration with the underlying geological materials, and (iii) fluctuations in the elevation of the underlying groundwater table. Pore water pressures predicted by the model are in good agreement with pore water pressures measured in the field. The predictions confirm that positive pore water pressures recorded by the sealed pressure transducers in the geological buffer are excess pore water pressures induced by the vertical normal stress imposed by waste placed on the liner, and are not due to a rise in the groundwater table. Simulations also showed that two additional years of filling would further increase the pore water pressure without any change in elevation of the groundwater table. The geological buffer remained unsaturated during the simulation, with a B-coefficient (parameter indicative of the degree of saturation) similar to that computed from the field-measured pore water pressures and waste filling records. Larger increases in pore water pressure were observed when the geological buffer was assumed to have higher initial saturation, as was observed in the field data. Incorporating seasonal fluctuations in the groundwater table beneath the geological buffer in the model resulted in predictions of small seasonal oscillation in the pore water pressure at the measurement location, similar to seasonal oscillations observed in the field. Predictions made with the model indicate that the dissipation of the excess pore water pressures will occur over decades due to the low hydraulic conductivity of the geological buffer material. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Dynamically morphing microchannels in liquid crystal elastomer coatings containing disclinations

Liquid crystal elastomers (LCEs) hold a major promise as a versatile material platform for smart soft coatings, since their orientational order can be predesigned to program a desired dynamic profile. In this work, we introduce temperature-responsive dynamic coatings based on LCEs with arrays of singular defects-disclinations that run parallel to the surface. The disclinations form in response to antagonistic patterns of the molecular orientation at the top and bottom surfaces, imposed by the plasmonic mask photoalignment. Upon heating, an initially flat LCE coating develops linear microchannels located above each disclination. The stimulus that causes a non-flat profile of LCE coatings upon heating is the activation force induced by the gradients of molecular orientation around disclinations. To describe the formation of microchannels and their thermal response, we adopt a Frank-Oseen model of disclinations in patterned director field and propose a linear elasticity theory to connect the complex spatially-varying molecular orientation to the displacements of the LCE. The thermo-responsive surface profiles predicted by the theory and by the finite element modeling are in good agreement with the experimental data; in particular, higher gradients of molecular orientation produce a stronger modulation of the coating profile. The elastic theory and the finite element simulations allow us to estimate the material parameter that characterizes the elastomer coating’s response to the thermal activation. The disclinations containing LCEs show potential as soft dynamic coatings with a predesigned responsive surface profile.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Mechanical Loads on Spent Nuclear Fuel in the General 30 cm Package Drop Scenario

The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Spent Fuel and Waste Science & Technology (SFWST) research program is guided by the high-level goal of closing prioritized knowledge gaps related to spent nuclear fuel (SNF) storage and transportation, which are summarized by Saltzstein et al. (2020). One of the high-priority knowledge gaps is the identification and quantification of mechanical loads that are expected to affect SNF during normal conditions of transportation and storage to inform the range of physical SNF test programs. This report uses modeling and analysis methods to estimate the mechanical loads on spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in the general 30 cm package drop scenario. The drop scenario assumes impact limiters are in place in the transportation configuration and the impact surface is perfectly rigid. The goal of this analysis is to consider the universe of potential mechanical loading conditions that can happen to SNF and present the results in a manner that is useful for materials testing, decision making, and regulatory rule making purposes. This study uses validated finite element models and methods to perform a broad parametric study of key variables that can affect the mechanical loads on SNF during a hypothetical package free drop scenario. Physical drop test data from a cask and fuel assembly drop test campaign is the basis for model validation. Additionally, the results of the parametric study are used to inform a damage model, which uses multiple nonlinear regression to estimate the relationships between input variables and output response. The parametric finite element analyses consider thousands of input variable combinations, while the damage model estimates millions of combinations. The breadth of this study provides confidence that the potential range of mechanical loads that SNF might experience during the general 30 cm package drop scenario are characterized well enough to consider this knowledge gap closed. While this report documents the overall peak values calculated in this study, the 95 th percentile values, the histograms, and the observed trends are equally important. This study covered a large range of SNF temperatures, room temperature to 300°C, and burnups, 10 GWd/MTU to 62 GWd/MTU. Each temperature and burnup combination has a different cladding yield strain, so it is more meaningful to summarize the calculated cladding strain response as its factor of safety, which is defined relative to the yield strain. The factor of safety is calculated as the yield strain divided by the peak cladding strain. A factor of safety greater than unity indicates that the cladding remains below yield, whereas a value less than unity is indicative of plastic deformation. In all cases of this study a safety factor over 1.0 was calculated, although in the most limiting case at 300°C the safety factor was only 1.01, which suggests that yielding could occur when additional loads like rod internal pressure are included. When the temperature is restricted to 200°C the limiting safety factor increases to 1.28, which has significant margin to accommodate internal pressure and potential local cladding defects that could cause a local stress concentration. An important trend in the calculated fuel rod mechanical loads is that the 2 nd highest loaded fuel rod in an assembly tends to be significantly lower than the highest loaded rod. The implication is that even if one rod in an assembly experiences a failure the loads would have to be significantly higher to cause two or more rods to fail.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

PipeSight: A High-Performance Computing Platform for Pipeline Integrity Management

The Phase I feasibility study completed as part of this project has led to a number of innovative technologies being developed and has laid the foundation for a successful Phase II effort to commercialize a platform for managing the integrity of pipelines for the damage mechanisms of the new, hybrid-energy based economy. To ground the development efforts and direction of the project, an extensive market research and customer discovery effort was undertaken early in Phase I. Through this effort, a number of pipeline owners and operators were interviewed, and the following key findings were discovered about the pipeline industry: • Small pipeline operators do not have the central engineering groups necessary to perform their own independent analysis of inspection data, but instead rely on summarized tally sheets provided to them by inspection service providers. • The time it takes to go from an inspection to a completed engineering assessment, even for small segments of pipeline, can take anywhere from 30-120 days. During this delay, critical threats can (and have been known to) cause failures. • Uncertainty is often not accounted for in the assessment of pipeline integrity. The tally sheets provided by third-party service providers are almost always deterministic in nature, identifying threats that present a concern only to the current (not the future) integrity of the pipeline. • It is uncommon to apply the latest technologies to perform advanced assessments of damaged pipelines. There is a desire to use more advanced analysis capabilities to assess threats. Many pipeline operators indicated that they would often excavate a pipeline to perform an inspection and find that the damage was not as bad as they anticipated, thus using limited resources unnecessarily. Companies are not consistent in their use of inspection data to determine corrosion rates, and those that do only calculate deterministic corrosion rates. • The industry has prominently relied on time-based inspections but has recently started to transition to risk-based inspections. However, there appears to be no uniform guidance on how to do so while properly accounting for all sources of uncertainty. • Companies are not storing inspection data in a manner that allows for the ready determination of temporal trends. • Predictive maintenance principles and practices are beginning to be used by early adopters • Some pipelines are being re-purposed to transport different process fluids than they were designed for, e.g., H 2 and CO 2 rich process streams to serve the new hybrid-energy based economy, which are presenting new integrity concerns for the existing pipeline network that crisscrosses the United States. As a result of these discoveries, we were able to target the development efforts in Phase I to best serve the needs of the industry. In Phase I, we developed a way to correlate multiple large-scale scans of the pipeline to determine a probabilistic corrosion rate that accounts for all sources of error and uncertainty in the inspection process. This probabilistic corrosion rate can be used to predict the future thickness distribution of the pipe wall. We demonstrate how this analysis may be performed in an analytical fashion and has been implemented in such a manner that it can be readily distributed using GPU computing through integration of the Kokkos programming model. We also make a very novel extension of the analytical corrosion rate model to Bayesian Networks (an explainable AI technique) that can account for non-parametric distributions of corrosion rates. With the predictions made above for the probabilistic corrosion rate and corresponding future distribution of the pipe wall thickness, we can assess the integrity of the pipeline through the use of a probabilistic engineering assessment. We developed a novel screening data analysis approach that can rapidly identify ‘hotspots’ (local thin areas) where the integrity of the pipeline is a concern. Once more, we implemented this screening approach in C++ to leverage GPU computing via the Kokkos programming model. After the critical hotspots are identified, we developed a program that can automatically generate an advanced finite element model of the damaged regions. Since the number of damaged regions that require advanced analysis can number in the thousands, we integrated an open-source container-native workflow engine for orchestrating parallel jobs on the cloud. Initially, these advanced numerical models were only designed to account for loading due to internal pressure. However, in a slight pivot from the initial Phase I proposal, we developed a complete pipe stress analysis program (called Simflex) which can simulate the complete pipeline and its response to thermal expansion, pressure, thermal bowing, weight, wind, earthquake, support displacement, support friction and external forces. This pipe stress analysis program was written generically, to handle any piping system, but contains the features needed to model long pipelines (i.e., it incorporates a model for soil mechanics and can account for the nonlinear boundary conditions necessary to simulate long underground pipelines). This pipe stress analysis program can simulate any segment of the pipeline (simple or complex) under any set of conditions and loads, to determine the supplemental loads (axial forces and bending moments) at the location of damage. This enables the most accurate state of stress to be accounted for in the pipeline, which can prove critical when evaluating the integrity of a damaged region. In the process of developing the technologies to perform the integrity assessment of the pipeline, we also extended one of the industry standard approaches for performing the assessment of local thin areas that extend more in the circumferential direction than the longitudinal direction of the pipeline. This approach was presented to the API 579-1/AS ME FFS-1 steering committee in November 2021 for consideration in the next edition of the industry standard for Fitness-For-Service (expected to be released in 2023). To help pipeline operators make decisions with the results on any integrity assessment, we developed a new approach to the life-cycle management of pipelines which uses a Bayesian Decision Network. The network is designed to help pipeline operators plan and prioritize inspection activities and ultimately make smarter, more cost-effective decisions. The Bayesian approach accounts for all sources of uncertainty and carries them through to the final optimal decisions, providing a probabilistic framework for optimizing inspection intervals. The proof-of-concept networks developed in the feasibility study are complete, verified, and are focused on a subset of the pipeline. To expand this novel approach to the scale necessary for an entire network of pipelines in Phase II, we will leverage the DOE-funded Bengi solver for industrial-scale decision making with Bayesian Networks [22]. Once implemented, we will be able to provide the pipeline industry with a much-needed tool for optimal inspection planning using truly explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). To handle all of these advanced capabilities into a cloud-based platform, the architecture of the Equity Engineering Cloud (EEC) was extended to include Argo Workflows, a framework capable of distributing and managing a massive number of jobs that consume their own resources, such that thousands of serial finite element simulations can be run in parallel. As part of this substantial undertaking, we also integrated Argo Continuous Delivery (CD) into the EEC, to aid with the rapid prototyping and iterations that will be imperative to the success of the PipeSight platform’s Agile development process in Phase II. As part of the pipe stress analysis program, we also developed a custom visualizer that leverages the DOE-funded VTK visualization library. We added custom contouring capabilities and a means for interacting visually with both the inputs and outputs of the pipe stress analysis program. We also developed routines for automating the post-processing of the finite element simulations to determine if any failure criteria are met and to visualize the deformations, stresses and strains in ParaView using the exodus II file format (a subset of netCDF).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Analysis of thermal and mechanical properties with inventory level of the molten salt storage tank in central receiver concentrating solar power plants

Molten salt thermal energy storage (TES) tanks ensure steady power output of concentrating solar power (CSP) plants; however, recent tank failures have highlighted the need for further analysis. Current studies primarily focus on analyzing the molten salt flow, heat transfer, and thermal efficiency. Additionally, research on the latest tank structures is limited and lacks newest experimental validation. This study measures temperature and molten salt inventory levels in the high-temperature tank at a 50 MW central receiver CSP plant, connected to the power grid in 2019. A multi-physics model was developed to evaluate thermal and mechanical properties of TES tanks by combining computational fluid dynamics and finite element modeling using real plant data. Heat loss, temperature, displacement, and stress distribution of the tank at different inventory levels were investigated. Results show that ambient air velocity near the tank roof reaches 2.14 m/s, much higher than 0.2 m/s near the wall. The temperatures of inventory fluid and tank are close, varying slightly at different levels due to thermal conduction and radiation. Because the heat loss strongly depends on temperature, the total tank loss remains nearly constant across inventory levels. Larger temperature gradients and thermal stresses are primarily localized along the tank floor edge and the air-salt interface. Notably, the maximum thermal stress at the tank edge is three times higher than that at the interface. The magnitude of total stress changes by less than 5 MPa with and without thermal load, indicating that high temperatures exert only a minor impact on tank stress. In contrast, thermal load significantly affects tank deformation, particularly at the roof edge, where values exceed 150 mm. Despite the large variation in molten salt levels, tank wall temperatures and displacements present a minor change, suggesting a weak correlation with inventory levels. In conclusion, the findings obtained in this study provide important insights on the TES tank that could be used to optimize tank design and operation strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗