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At least 199 records · Page 11

Goal Directed Model Inversion: Learning Within Domain Constraints

Goal Directed Model Inversion (GDMI) is an algorithm designed to generalize supervised learning to the case where target outputs are not available to the learning system. The output of the learning system becomes the input to some external device or transformation, and only the output of this device or transformation can be compared to a desired target. The fundamental driving mechanism of GDMI is to learn from success. Given that a wrong outcome is achieved, one notes that the action that produced that outcome "would have been right if the outcome had been the desired one." The algorithm makes use of these intermediate "successes" to achieve the final goal. A unique and potentially very important feature of this algorithm is the ability to modify the output of the learning module to force upon it a desired syntactic structure. This differs from ordinary supervised learning in the following way: in supervised learning the exact desired output pattern must be provided. In GDMI instead, it is possible to require simply that the output obey certain rules, i.e., that it "make sense" in some way determined by the knowledge domain. The exact pattern that will achieve the desired outcome is then found by the system. The ability to impose rules while allowing the system to search for its own answers in the context of neural networks is potentially a major breakthrough in two ways: 1) it may allow the construction of networks that can incorporate immediately some important knowledge, i.e. would not need to learn everything from scratch as normally required at present, and 2) learning and searching would be limited to the areas where it is necessary, thus facilitating and speeding up the process. These points are illustrated with examples from robotic path planning and parametric design.

Colombano, Silvano P.↗

Goal Directed Model Inversion: Learning Within Domain Constraints

Goal Directed Model Inversion (GDMI) is an algorithm designed to generalize supervised learning to the case where target outputs are not available to the learning system. The output of the learning system becomes the input to some external device or transformation, and only the output of this device or transformation can be compared to a desired target. The fundamental driving mechanism of GDMI is to learn from success. Given that a wrong outcome is achieved, one notes that the action that produced that outcome "would have been right if the outcome had been the desired one." The algorithm makes use of these intermediate "successes" to achieve the final goal. A unique and potentially very important feature of this algorithm is the ability to modify the output of the learning module to force upon it a desired syntactic structure. This differs from ordinary supervised learning in the following way: in supervised learning the exact desired output pattern must be provided. In GDMI instead, it is possible to require simply that the output obey certain rules, i.e., that it "make sense" in some way determined by the knowledge domain. The exact pattern that will achieve the desired outcome is then found by the system. The ability to impose rules while allowing the system to search for its own answers in the context of neural networks is potentially a major breakthrough in two ways: (1) it may allow the construction of networks that can incorporate immediately some important knowledge, i.e., would not need to learn everything from scratch as normally required at present; and (2) learning and searching would be limited to the areas where it is necessary, thus facilitating and speeding up the process. These points are illustrated with examples from robotic path planning and parametric design.

Colombano, Silvano P.↗

Frost prediction using machine learning and deep neural network models

This study describes accurate, computationally efficient models that can be implemented for practical use in predicting frost events for point-scale agricultural applications. Frost damage in agriculture is a costly burden to farmers and global food security alike. Timely prediction of frost events is important to reduce the cost of agricultural frost damage and traditional numerical weather forecasts are often inaccurate at the field-scale in complex terrain. In this paper, we developed machine learning (ML) algorithms for the prediction of such frost events near Alcalde, NM at the point-scale. ML algorithms investigated include deep neural network, convolution neural networks, and random forest models at lead-times of 6–48 h. Our results show promising accuracy (6-h prediction RMSE = 1.53–1.72°C) for use in frost and minimum temperature prediction applications. Seasonal differences in model predictions resulted in a slight negative bias during Spring and Summer months and a positive bias in Fall and Winter months. Additionally, we tested the model transferability by continuing training and testing using data from sensors at a nearby farm. We calculated the feature importance of the random forest models and were able to determine which parameters provided the models with the most useful information for predictions. We determined that soil temperature is a key parameter in longer term predictions (>24 h), while other temperature related parameters provide the majority of information for shorter term predictions. The model error compared favorable to previous ML based frost studies and outperformed the physically based High Resolution Rapid Refresh forecasting system making our ML-models attractive for deployment toward real-time monitoring of frost events and damage at commercial farming operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Nozzle material requirements and the status of intermetallic matrix composites

The HSCT exhaust nozzle must manage high temperature exhaust gases and pressure gradients while meeting HSCT economic and noise goals. The important features and requirements for an HSCT exhaust nozzle are shown for a 2DCD (two-dimensional convergent-divergent) design. The same requirements would apply to an axisymmetric design. Exhaust nozzle weight has an adverse effect on the overall aircraft range, payload, and engine specific fuel consumption and is therefore the primary driver for advanced exhaust nozzle materials. Because of the large airflow and pressure gradients, exhaust nozzles are extremely large and heavy when made from current materials. The use of advanced materials with higher specific strength will reduce the weight of exhaust nozzle components. In addition to the flow of high-temperature exhaust gases into the exhaust nozzle, ambient air is entrained to reduce gas exit velocities and suppress sound. This leads to components exposed to extremely high temperature gradients and, hence, high thermal stresses. Further, exhaust gases are highly oxidizing; material environmental resistance will be an important factor for long life. Several viable concepts have been identified to reduce noise through the mixture of exhaust and ambient air. Sound can be further suppressed by acoustic panels that absorb high-frequency noise.

Johnson, Andrew M.↗

A modified restricted Euler equation for turbulent flows with mean velocity gradients

The restricted Euler equation captures many important features of the behavior of the velocity gradient tensor observed in direct numerical simulations (DNS) of isotropic turbulence. However, in slightly more complex flows the agreement is not good, especially in regions of low dissipation. In this paper, it is demonstrated that the Reynolds-averaged restricted Euler equation violates the balance of mean momentum for virtually all homogeneous turbulent flows with only two major exceptions: isotropic and homogeneously-sheared turbulence. A new model equation which overcomes this shortcoming and is more widely applicable is suggested. This modele is derived from the Navier-Stokes equation with a restricted Euler type approximation made on the fluctuating velocity gradient field. Analytical solutions of the proposed modified restricted Euler equation appear to be difficult to obtain. Hence, a strategy for numerically calculating the velocity gradient tensor is developed. Preliminary calculations tend to indicate that the modified restricted Euler equation captures many important aspects of the behavior of the fluctuating velocity gradients in anisotropic homogeneous turbulence.

Girimaji, Sharath S.↗

Sub-pilot-scale Production of High-Value Products from U.S. Coals

Investigators from the University of Utah, University of Wyoming and Marshall University pursued a program to study the conversion of raw coal to high-value products of carbon fiber and silicon carbide. Team members also developed an initial framework for a data portal that can incorporate laboratory data on coal processing and product quality, and also work with tools for machine learning for data analysis, data visualization and economic assessment. Experimental R&D efforts focused on the conversion of raw coal to coal tar and other byproducts, and the resulting tar intermediates were upgraded to form anisotropic and isotropic pitch materials. These pitch materials were produced from coal using both thermal (pyrolysis) and chemical (mild solvolysis liquefaction) decomposition of raw coal. Four different coals were studied: Utah bituminous coal (Sufco), Wyoming PRB coal (Black Thunder), Illinois bituminous coal (Illinois #6), and West Virginia bituminous coal (Flying Eagle). Both metallurgical-grade coking coals and lower-grade steam coals were investigated, and controlled secondary gas-phase reactions were used during a two-stage pyrolysis process to induce cracking and condensation reactions among the pyrolytic tar species. This approach successfully improved the performance of the lower grade coals for yielding pitch materials, with properties more consistent with a commercial-grade pitch that had previously demonstrated success for quality carbon fiber production. The use of waste plastic materials was also studied, to help improve physical and chemical characteristics of the intermediate tars and final pitch product; in particular, for lowering the pitch softening point to an acceptable level for melt spinning carbon fiber. Mild solvolysis liquefaction was also used as a method for producing pitch for carbon fiber production. As expected, significantly higher pitch yields were obtained using this approach, and waste plastic materials were also successfully used to reduce pitch softening point to an acceptable level. The plastic materials were also utilized to create a solvent for the mild solvolysis process, and this plastic-derived solvent was shown to provide results consistent with more expensive commercial chemical solvents, and could thus avoid the need for costly recovery and recycle of a liquefaction solvent. Additional experimental R&D focused on the production of silicon carbide (β-SiC) from the residual char byproduct from pitch production, and also on the production of carbon fiber from the anisotropic pitch. SiC was successfully synthesized using a mixture of residual char and sandstone at a ratio of 1:1. Reaction temperature and residence time were optimized and yielded a product purity of 81%. For carbon fiber production, the most successful pitch samples were obtained from the mild solvolysis liquefaction approach, combined with the use of a plastic (HDPE)-derived solvent. Fiber properties improved over time as laboratory fiber production methodologies improved, and final yields of carbon fiber were obtained with a diameter of 12.14 ± 1.10 um, Modulus of 173.73 ± 15.25 GPa, and Tensile Strength of 1.04 ± 0.10 GPa. A proof-of-concept Modern Community Research Data Portal (MCRDP) was developed and deployed for coal and coal-derived pitch characterization, with the full support of (i) remote web-based access, (ii) distributed analysis, (iii) interactive visualization and exploration, (iv) shared and long-term data access, (v) advanced query capabilities and (vi) real-time collaboration. The Coal to Products Data Portal “coaltoproducts.org” provides researchers with space to store and share data within a project, tools for analyzing and understanding data for scientific investigation, and the ability to publish data to the broader community for reproducibility. The portal leverages the Material Commons 2.0 (MC) platform developed by the Center for PRedictive Integrated Structural Materials Science (PRISMS) of the University of Michigan, to achieve long-term longevity of data collections and, more importantly, collaborative science. A number of data visualization tools were also assessed and implemented for interrogating the experimental and modeling data. The machine learning portion of this project analyzed datasets from two different coal conversion processes performed on a diverse set of coal samples from both the coal pyrolysis experiments and the solvent liquefaction experiments. The work was initiated by exploring standard regression models on the pyrolysis data, aiming to understand the impact of sample characteristics and processing conditions on key product metrics. Over the course of the project, the focus expanded to include a variety of machine learning tools, delving into both supervised and unsupervised learning methods. Models tested on the pyrolysis data included linear, ridge, lasso, elastic-net, Gaussian process, random forest regression, and AutoSklearn, and the approach was continually refined to enhance predictive accuracy and model interpretability. Similar techniques were applied to the liquefaction data with an additional focus on feature engineering. Along with mesophase content, additional outputs of interest were the pitch yield, softening point, and QI content. Insights derived from these analyses are crucial in determining the factors influencing the quality and yield of coal-derived products. As the work progressed, the research evolved from foundational model comparisons to analyses of random forests, decision paths, and feature importance scores. A thorough market analysis was performed to examine the prospects of coal-based carbon fibers. The best opportunities for coal come from its lower and more stable price relative to petroleum, particularly for subbituminous coals, which is the primary advantage that a coal refinery may have over a petroleum refinery. Before a commercial CTP production facility can be modeled, however, several things need to be understood regarding the nature of the would-be coal refinery. These include the technology to be deployed, the size of facility, the volume(s) of co-product(s), and the waste and emissions profile of the plant. The volume of co-products and waste may be substantial and will require separate market analysis to ensure viability. In the near-term, the importance of coal tar pitch, in the form of carbon pitch, to the aluminum and steel industries is likely to overshadow the alternative use of this material as an input for carbon fiber. The importance of steel and aluminum in building materials, and the need for carbon materials in their manufacturing, will ensure that demand for these products remains for the long run. In addition, carbon fiber may also be the best substitute for steel and aluminum well into the future. While society will eventually be able to shift production of much of its electricity needs to renewables, it will not be able to shift away from fossil fuels for production of high-strength construction and vehicular materials. Demand for carbon fiber is expected to increase quickly, but the volume of carbon fiber and the amount of coal that would be needed to produce even a sizeable share of this market may still be relatively small compared to current coal production. Thus, other coal-based products like graphene, graphite, carbon foams, resins, and carbon-based building products will play important roles in sustaining coal production as coal-fired power generation continues to decline.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Prediction of hydration energies of adsorbates at Pt(111) and liquid water interfaces using machine learning

Aqueous phase heterogeneous catalysis is important to various industrial processes, including biomass conversion, Fischer–Tropsch synthesis, and electrocatalysis. Accurate calculation of solvation thermodynamic properties is essential for modeling the performance of catalysts for these processes. Explicit solvation methods employing multiscale modeling, e.g., involving density functional theory and molecular dynamics have emerged for this purpose. Although accurate, these methods are computationally intensive. This study introduces machine learning (ML) models to predict solvation thermodynamics for adsorbates on a Pt(111) surface, aiming to enhance computational efficiency without compromising accuracy. In particular, ML models are developed using a combination of molecular descriptors and fingerprints and trained on previously published water–adsorbate interaction energies, energies of solvation, and free energies of solvation of adsorbates bound to Pt(111). These models achieve root mean square error values of 0.09 eV for interaction energies, 0.04 eV for energies of solvation, and 0.06 eV for free energies of solvation, demonstrating accuracy within the standard error of multiscale modeling. Feature importance analysis reveals that hydrogen bonding, van der Waals interactions, and solvent density, together with the properties of the adsorbate, are critical factors influencing solvation thermodynamics. Furthermore, these findings suggest that ML models can provide rapid and reliable predictions of solvation properties. This approach not only reduces computational costs but also offers insights into the solvation characteristics of adsorbates at Pt(111)–water interfaces.

Adsorption↗

Feature extraction of event-related potentials using wavelets: an application to human performance monitoring

This report describes the development and evaluation of mathematical models for predicting human performance from discrete wavelet transforms (DWT) of event-related potentials (ERP) elicited by task-relevant stimuli. The DWT was compared to principal components analysis (PCA) for representation of ERPs in linear regression and neural network models developed to predict a composite measure of human signal detection performance. Linear regression models based on coefficients of the decimated DWT predicted signal detection performance with half as many free parameters as comparable models based on PCA scores. In addition, the DWT-based models were more resistant to model degradation due to over-fitting than PCA-based models. Feed-forward neural networks were trained using the backpropagation algorithm to predict signal detection performance based on raw ERPs, PCA scores, or high-power coefficients of the DWT. Neural networks based on high-power DWT coefficients trained with fewer iterations, generalized to new data better, and were more resistant to overfitting than networks based on raw ERPs. Networks based on PCA scores did not generalize to new data as well as either the DWT network or the raw ERP network. The results show that wavelet expansions represent the ERP efficiently and extract behaviorally important features for use in linear regression or neural network models of human performance. The efficiency of the DWT is discussed in terms of its decorrelation and energy compaction properties. In addition, the DWT models provided evidence that a pattern of low-frequency activity (1 to 3.5 Hz) occurring at specific times and scalp locations is a reliable correlate of human signal detection performance. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Evoked Potentials↗

Feature Extraction of Event-Related Potentials Using Wavelets: An Application to Human Performance Monitoring

This report describes the development and evaluation of mathematical models for predicting human performance from discrete wavelet transforms (DWT) of event-related potentials (ERP) elicited by task-relevant stimuli. The DWT was compared to principal components analysis (PCA) for representation of ERPs in linear regression and neural network models developed to predict a composite measure of human signal detection performance. Linear regression models based on coefficients of the decimated DWT predicted signal detection performance with half as many f ree parameters as comparable models based on PCA scores. In addition, the DWT-based models were more resistant to model degradation due to over-fitting than PCA-based models. Feed-forward neural networks were trained using the backpropagation,-, algorithm to predict signal detection performance based on raw ERPs, PCA scores, or high-power coefficients of the DWT. Neural networks based on high-power DWT coefficients trained with fewer iterations, generalized to new data better, and were more resistant to overfitting than networks based on raw ERPs. Networks based on PCA scores did not generalize to new data as well as either the DWT network or the raw ERP network. The results show that wavelet expansions represent the ERP efficiently and extract behaviorally important features for use in linear regression or neural network models of human performance. The efficiency of the DWT is discussed in terms of its decorrelation and energy compaction properties. In addition, the DWT models provided evidence that a pattern of low-frequency activity (1 to 3.5 Hz) occurring at specific times and scalp locations is a reliable correlate of human signal detection performance.

Trejo, Leonard J.↗

Local conservation of energy in fully implicit PIC algorithms

We consider the issue of strict, fully discrete local energy conservation for a whole class of fully implicit local-charge- and global-energy-conserving particle-in-cell (PIC) algorithms. Earlier studies demonstrated these algorithms feature strict global energy conservation. However, whether a local energy conservation theorem exists (in which the local energy update is governed by a flux balance equation at every mesh cell) for these schemes is unclear. In this study, we show that a local energy conservation theorem indeed exists. We begin our analysis with the 1D electrostatic PIC model without orbit-averaging, and then generalize our conclusions to account for orbit averaging, multiple dimensions, and electromagnetic models (Darwin). In all cases, a temporally, spatially, and particle-discrete local energy conservation theorem is shown to exist, proving that these formulations (as originally proposed in the literature), in addition to being locally charge conserving and globally energy conserving, are strictly locally energy conserving as well. In contrast to earlier proofs of local conservation in the literature, which only considered continuum time, our result is valid for the fully implicit time-discrete version of all models considered, including important features such as orbit averaging. We demonstrate the local-energy-conservation property numerically with a paradigmatic numerical example.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Using intrahost single nucleotide variant data to predict SARS-CoV-2 detection cycle threshold values

Over the last four years, each successive wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has been caused by variants with mutations that improve the transmissibility of the virus. Despite this, we still lack tools for predicting clinically important features of the virus. In this study, we show that it is possible to predict the PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values from clinical detection assays using sequence data. Ct values often correspond with patient viral load and the epidemiological trajectory of the pandemic. Using a collection of 36,335 high quality genomes, we built models from SARS-CoV-2 intrahost single nucleotide variant (iSNV) data, computing XGBoost models from the frequencies of A, T, G, C, insertions, and deletions at each position relative to the Wuhan-Hu-1 reference genome. Our best model had an R 2 of 0.604 [0.593–0.616, 95% confidence interval] and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 5.247 [5.156–5.337], demonstrating modest predictive power. Overall, we show that the results are stable relative to an external holdout set of genomes selected from SRA and are robust to patient status and the detection instruments that were used. This study highlights the importance of developing modeling strategies that can be applied to publicly available genome sequence data for use in disease prevention and control.

COVID19↗

Simulating fluxes from heterogeneous land surfaces: Explicit subgrid method employing the biosphere-atmosphere transfer scheme (BATS)

A vectorized version of the biosphere-atmosphere transfer scheme (VBATS) is used to study moisture, energy, and momentum fluxes from heterogeneous land surfaces st the scale of an atmospheric model (AM) grid cells. To incorporate subgrid scale inhomogeneity, VBATS includes two important features: (1) characterization of the land surface (vegetation and soil parameters) at N subgrid points within an AM grid cell and (2) explicit distribution of climate forcing (precipitation, clouds, etc.) over the subgrid. In this study, VBATS is used in stand-alone mode to simulate a single AM grid cell and to evaluate the effects of subgrid scale vegetation and climate specification on the surface fluxes and hydrology. It is found that the partitioning of energy can be affected by up to 30%, runoff by 50%, and surface stress in excess of 60%. Distributing climate forcing over the AM grid cell increases the Bowen ratio, as a result of enhanced sensible heat flux and reduced latent heat flux. The combined effect of heterogeneous vegetation and distribution of climate is found to be dependent on the dominat vegetation class in the AM grid cell. Development of this method is part of a larger program to explore the importance of subgrid scale processes in regional and global climate simulations.

Seth, Anji↗

Parametric Geometry, Structured Grid Generation, and Initial Design Study for REST-Class Hypersonic Inlets

Computational design and analysis of three-dimensional hypersonic inlets with shape transition has been a significant challenge due to the complex geometry and grid required for three-dimensional viscous flow calculations. Currently, the design process utilizes an inviscid design tool to produce initial inlet shapes by streamline tracing through an axisymmetric compression field. However, the shape is defined by a large number of points rather than a continuous surface and lacks important features such as blunt leading edges. Therefore, a design system has been developed to parametrically construct true CAD geometry and link the topology of a structured grid to the geometry. The Adaptive Modeling Language (AML) constitutes the underlying framework that is used to build the geometry and grid topology. Parameterization of the CAD geometry allows the inlet shapes produced by the inviscid design tool to be generated, but also allows a great deal of flexibility to modify the shape to account for three-dimensional viscous effects. By linking the grid topology to the parametric geometry, the GridPro grid generation software can be used efficiently to produce a smooth hexahedral multiblock grid. To demonstrate the new capability, a matrix of inlets were designed by varying four geometry parameters in the inviscid design tool. The goals of the initial design study were to explore inviscid design tool geometry variations with a three-dimensional analysis approach, demonstrate a solution rate which would enable the use of high-fidelity viscous three-dimensional CFD in future design efforts, process the results for important performance parameters, and perform a sample optimization.

Ferlemann, Paul G.↗

Probing the in situ volumes of Arabidopsis leaf plastids using three‐dimensional confocal and scanning electron microscopy

SUMMARY Leaf plastids harbor a plethora of biochemical reactions including photosynthesis, one of the most important metabolic pathways on Earth. Scientists are eager to unveil the physiological processes within the organelle but also their interconnection with the rest of the plant cell. An increasingly important feature of this venture is to use experimental data in the design of metabolic models. A remaining obstacle has been the limited in situ volume information of plastids and other cell organelles. To fill this gap for chloroplasts, we established three microscopy protocols delivering in situ volumes based on: (i) chlorophyll fluorescence emerging from the thylakoid membrane, (ii) a CFP marker embedded in the envelope, and (iii) calculations from serial block‐face scanning electron microscopy (SBFSEM). The obtained data were corroborated by comparing wild‐type data with two mutant lines affected in the plastid division machinery known to produce small and large mesophyll chloroplasts, respectively. Furthermore, we also determined the volume of the much smaller guard cell plastids. Interestingly, their volume is not governed by the same components of the division machinery which defines mesophyll plastid size. Based on our three approaches, the average volume of a mature Col‐0 wild‐type mesophyll chloroplasts is 93 μm 3 . Wild‐type guard cell plastids are approximately 18 μm 3 . Lastly, our comparative analysis shows that the chlorophyll fluorescence analysis can accurately determine chloroplast volumes, providing an important tool to research groups without access to transgenic marker lines expressing genetically encoded fluorescence proteins or costly SBFSEM equipment.

Knoblauch, Jan↗

MISR Observations of Etna Volcanic Plumes

In the last twelve years, Mt. Etna, located in eastern Sicily, has produced a great number of explosive eruptions. Volcanic plumes have risen to several km above sea level and created problems for aviation and the communities living near the volcano. A reduction of hazards may be accomplished using remote sensing techniques to evaluate important features of volcanic plumes. Since 2000, the Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) on board NASA s Terra spacecraft has been extensively used to study aerosol dispersal and to extract the three-dimensional structure of plumes coming from anthropogenic or natural sources, including volcanoes. In the present work, MISR data from several explosive events occurring at Etna are analyzed using a program named MINX (MISR INteractive eXplorer). MINX uses stereo matching techniques to evaluate the height of the volcanic aerosol with a precision of a few hundred meters, and extracts aerosol properties from the MISR Standard products. We analyzed twenty volcanic plumes produced during the 2000, 2001, 2002-03, 2006 and 2008 Etna eruptions, finding that volcanic aerosol dispersal and column height obtained by this analysis is in good agreement with ground-based observations. MISR aerosol type retrievals: (1) clearly distinguish volcanic plumes that are sulphate and/or water vapor dominated from ash-dominated ones; (2) detect even low concentrations of volcanic ash in the atmosphere; (3) demonstrate that sulphate and/or water vapor dominated plumes consist of smaller-sized particles compared to ash plumes. This work highlights the potential of MISR to detect important volcanic plume characteristics that can be used to constrain the eruption source parameters in volcanic ash dispersion models. Further, the possibility of discriminating sulphate and/or water vapor dominated plumes from ash-dominated ones is important to better understand the atmospheric impact of these plumes.

Scollo, S.↗

Sea State Based Estimation of White Cap Fraction: Implications for Primary Marine Aerosol Fluxes

Oceanic whitecaps (hereafter, W) or the characteristic whiteness of the sea foam is an important feature for predicting exchange of gases, sea spray aerosols (SSAs), heat and momentum transfer between the ocean and the atmosphere at the air-sea interface. Due to its increased surface emission and brightness temperature, whitecaps are critical for satellite retrievals of ocean albedo, ocean color, ocean surface wind vectors from satellite borne radiometer and microwave instruments. Most of the existing models predict W using wind speed and sea surface temperature (SST). However, numerous publications have pointed out that there are large uncertainties in the predicted W and using parameterizations based on wind-wave state can improve the precision of the predicted W. Here, we integrate the University of Miami Wave Model - 2.0 (UMWM) in Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and use wave diagnostics to predict W. We choose the year 2006 for our global UMWM/GEOS runs because of the availability of W dataset from satellite observations. We run UMWM/GEOS at 0.5o x 0.5o by replaying to MERRA2 meteorology and evaluate the wave diagnostics using measurements from fixed buoys and satellite altimeters. We use three different parameterizations for W based on: 1) Reynolds number, 2) wave dissipation energy, and 3) volume of air entrained by breaking waves. We compare our results of W with previous studies and also with the satellite based observational dataset. Predicting W is important for understanding the processes at the air-sea interface. Therefore, this work is a step further in improving the uncertainties in the aerosol and atmospheric chemistry modules of the global models.

Oceanic Whitecaps↗

Lunar Observer Laser Altimeter observations for lunar base site selection

One of the critical datasets for optimal selection of future lunar landing sites is local- to regional-scale topography. Lunar base site selection will require such data for both engineering and scientific operations purposes. The Lunar Geoscience Orbiter or Lunar Observer is the ideal precursory science mission from which to obtain this required information. We suggest that a simple laser altimeter instrument could be employed to measure local-scale slopes, heights, and depths of lunar surface features important to lunar base planning and design. For this reason, we have designed and are currently constructing a breadboard of a Lunar Observer Laser Altimeter (LOLA) instrument capable of acquiring contiguous-footprint topographic profiles with both 30-m and 300-m along-track resolution. This instrument meets all the severe weight, power, size, and data rate limitations imposed by Observer-class spacecraft. In addition, LOLA would be capable of measuring the within-footprint vertical roughness of the lunar surface, and the 1.06-micron relative surface reflectivity at normal incidence. We have used airborne laser altimeter data for a few representative lunar analog landforms to simulate and analyze LOLA performance in a 100-km lunar orbit. We demonstrate that this system in its highest resolution mode (30-m diameter footprints) would quantify the topography of all but the very smallest lunar landforms. At its global mapping resolution (300-m diameter footprints), LOLA would establish the topographic context for lunar landing site selection by providing the basis for constructing a 1-2 km spatial resolution global, geodetic topographic grid that would contain a high density of observations (e.g., approximately 1000 observations per each 1 deg by 1 deg cell at the lunar equator). The high spatial and vertical resolution measurements made with a LOLA-class instrument on a precursory Lunar Observer would be highly synergistic with high-resolution imaging datasets, and will allow for direct quantification of critical slopes, heights, and depths of features visible in images of potential lunar base sites.

Garvin, James B.↗

An Observational Comparison of Level of Neutral Buoyancy and Level of Maximum Detrainment in Tropical Deep Convective Clouds

Tropical deep convective clouds are important drivers of large-scale atmospheric circulation representing the main vertical transport pathway through the depth of the troposphere for heat, momentum, water, and chemical species. The strength and depth of this transport are impacted by the convective updraft size and intensity that are driven by buoyancy, dynamical forcing, and mixing of environmental air, i.e., entrainment. In this paper, we identify tropical deep convective systems with well-defined forward anvils using Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) ground-based profiling radars, at three ARM fixed-sites in the Tropical Western Pacific (TWP; i.e., Manus, Nauru, Darwin) and three ARM Mobile Facility deployments in Niamey, Niger; Gan Island, Maldives; and Manacapuru, Brazil. We use the difference between the level of neutral buoyancy (LNB) and the level of maximum detrainment (LMD) as a proxy for the effective bulk convective entrainment (εproxy). The LNB, the theoretical height that a parcel raised above the level of free convection would reach with no mixing, is calculated based on pre-convection radiosonde measurements using parcel theory. The LMD is the height of the maximum reflectivity observed in forward anvil clouds by profiling radars. Deep convective systems over the TWP show higher LNBs that extend to 16.3 km on average and larger εproxy (median LNB minus LMD up to 6.5 km) compared to their continental counterparts in the Amazon and West Africa. Oceanic conditions show larger convective available potential energy (CAPE) coupled with higher moisture at low levels which favors larger εproxy. In contrast, continental cases initiate and develop under high convective inhibition, steeper environmental lapse rate, and high wind shear conditions, which show smaller offset between LNB and LMD. Deep convective cases that promote significant cold pools at the surface experience less εproxy. Using a Random Forest regression algorithm, CAPE is associated with the highest feature importance score for predicting convective εproxy, followed by low-level relative humidity. For continental cases, the low-level wind shear also indicates higher importance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗