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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Multimodal, microspectroscopic speciation of legacy phosphorus in two US mid-Atlantic agricultural soils

To understand phosphorus (P) mobility in agricultural soils and its potential environmental risk, it is essential to directly measure solid phase P speciation. Often, bulk P K-edge X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy followed by linear combination fitting (LCF) is utilized to determine the solid P phases in soil. However, this method may limit results to only a few major phases. Additionally, XANES spectra for different P species may have very similar features, leading to an over- or underestimate of their contribution to LCF. Here, an improved P speciation by pairing multimodal microbeam-X-ray fluorescence (µ-XRF) mapping coupled with µ-XANES (microbeam-X-ray absorption near edge structure) analysis to directly speciate major and minor P phases on the micron scale is provided. We combined maps of both tender (P, sulfur, aluminum, and silicon) and hard energy (calcium, iron [Fe], and manganese) elements to evaluate the elemental co-locations with P. To better account for uncertainty assigning XANES peaks to individual compounds, a more quantitative fingerprinting by “spectral feature analysis” was completed. With this analysis, an R-factor is reported for the fit. These results were compared to traditional LCF. Pre-edge fitting results revealed the presence of a two-component pre-edge feature for phosphate adsorbed to ferrihydrite. Additionally, phytate co-precipitated with ferrihydrite (Phytate-Fe-Cop) had a pre-edge feature, indicating direct association with Fe. Lastly, a unique P species associated with manganese oxide was identified in the soil via multimodal mapping and µ-XANES. These results allow for better prediction of P dissolution and mobility.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Studies of the decay $$ {\textrm{D}}_{\textrm{s}}^{+}\to {\textrm{K}}^{+}{\textrm{K}}^{-}{\mu}^{+}{\nu}_{\mu } $$

Abstract The$$ {D}_s^{+}\to {K}^{+}{K}^{-}{\mu}^{+}{\nu}_{\mu } $$ D s + → K + K − μ + ν μ decay is studied based on 7.33 fb −1 ofe + e − collision data collected with the BESIII detector at center-of-mass energies in the range from 4.128 to 4.226 GeV. The absolute branching fraction is measured as$$ \mathcal{B}\left({D}_s^{+}\to \phi {\mu}^{+}{\nu}_{\mu}\right)=\left(2.25\pm 0.09\pm 0.07\right)\times {10}^{-2} $$ B D s + → ϕ μ + ν μ = 2.25 ± 0.09 ± 0.07 × 10 − 2 , the most precise measurement to date. Combining with the world average of$$ \mathcal{B}\left({D}_s^{+}\to \phi {e}^{+}{\nu}_e\right) $$ B D s + → ϕ e + ν e , the ratio of the branching fractions obtained is$$ \frac{\mathcal{B}\left({D}_s^{+}\to \phi {\mu}^{+}{\nu}_{\mu}\right)}{\mathcal{B}\left({D}_s^{+}\to \phi {e}^{+}{\nu}_e\right)}=0.94\pm 0.08 $$ B D s + → ϕ μ + ν μ B D s + → ϕ e + ν e = 0.94 ± 0.08 , in agreement with lepton universality. By performing a partial wave analysis, the hadronic form factor ratios atq 2 = 0 are extracted, finding$$ {r}_V=\frac{V(0)}{A_1(0)}=1.58\pm 0.17\pm 0.02 $$ r V = V 0 A 1 0 = 1.58 ± 0.17 ± 0.02 and$$ {r}_2=\frac{A_2(0)}{A_1(0)}=0.71\pm 0.14\pm 0.02 $$ r 2 = A 2 0 A 1 0 = 0.71 ± 0.14 ± 0.02 , where the first uncertainties are statistical and the second are systematic. No significantS-wave contribution fromf 0 (980)→ K + K − is found. The upper limit$$ \mathcal{B}\left({D}_s^{+}\to {f}_0(980){\mu}^{+}{\nu}_{\mu}\right)\cdot \mathcal{B}\left({f}_0(980)\to {K}^{+}{K}^{-}\right)<5.45\times {10}^{-4} $$ B D s + → f 0 980 μ + ν μ ⋅ B f 0 980 → K + K − < 5.45 × 10 − 4 is set at 90% credibility level.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Macroscopic Traffic Modeling Using Probe Vehicle Data: A Machine Learning Approach

Abstract The macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD) captures an orderly relationship among traffic flow, density, and speed at the network level. It is a simple yet powerful tool for modeling traffic dynamics in large urban networks with broad application in traffic control and management. However, empirically derived MFDs in urban regions require high-resolution traffic data from the network. Having the network flow and vehicular density estimated at the (granular) census tract level using vehicle probe data, we apply machine learning methods to predict the MFDs across U.S. urban areas and capture the impacts of location-specific input features on the network flow–density relationships at a large scale. The results show that, among the four tested machine learning approaches (Random Forest, XGBoost, Support Vector Machine, and Neural Network), XGBoost delivers the best performance in predicting network traffic flow based on vehicular density and location attributes. Using interaction Shapley Additive explanation (SHAP) values and partial correlation analysis, we examine the factors influencing MFD shapes across different locations. Our empirical findings reveal that across U.S. urban areas, network topology, transportation infrastructure, and land use are primary factors shaping MFD curves, while demand and trip-related factors play a lesser role. Specifically, higher ranking roads, centrality, and development levels correlate positively with network capacity and critical density, whereas negative associations are observed for network connectivity, mixed-use development, and road roughness levels.

Jin, Ling↗
DOE OSTI2020

ECCI analysis of shear accommodations at grain boundaries in commercially pure alpha titanium

This study uses a novel approach that couples electron channeling contrast imaging (ECCI) with controlled removal of surface material to investigate the slip system/grain boundary interactions by assessing the geometry of slip planes and grain boundaries as a function of depth. The comparison of spacing, relative distributions, and correlations of slip bands across grain boundaries reveals surface biasing on the slip band behavior in the grain boundary region. Furthermore, using analysis of the compatibility factor m’, the Schmid factor of each slip system, and the angles θ between slip planes, a more comprehensive understanding of the details of the mechanisms of strain transfer and heterogeneous deformation is developed. In general, the misalignment of primary slip systems on the grain boundary planes necessitates the activation of secondary accommodating slip systems close to the grain boundary area that are better aligned (higher m’ and lower θ) with respect to the incoming slip system across the grain boundary. Such systems have the same Burgers vector as the primary slip systems within the respective grains, but are typically on low mobility slip planes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of process steady state with autoregressive models and Bayesian inference

To improve efficiency, separations engineers will typically design process circuits containing recirculating streams, which mix one or more of the process outputs with the feed material. Doing so can improve efficiency, but will cause a delay in the system reaching steady state conditions until the recirculating load mass flows stabilize. In testing separation circuits, engineers will often test a variety of factors and complete an analysis from sample results. Knowledge of if a process is at steady state, as well as the steady state conditions of a process, is essential for a valid techno-economic analysis. However, the definition of process steady state is often poorly defined, or does not include uncertainty quantification. If the performance of a process operating under two different sets of conditions are compared, an engineer who does not test for steady state or quantify steady state conditions risks producing a faulty analysis. In this work, a Bayesian statistical method for testing if all streams are at steady state is further motivated and then derived. Then after testing for steady state, the same model is used with a prior distribution that enforces a steady state assumption to estimate steady state conditions. Further, these methods were validated in a solvent extraction pilot plant where steady state conditions for all outflows were inferred with uncertainty quantification. Analysis is completed with functions available to the reader as part of the BayesMassBal (V 1.1.0) software package written in R.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling receiver flux of commercial power tower concentrating solar power plants using ray tracing: a round-robin comparison of SolTrace, Solstice, and TieSOL

This study presents a multi-stage, cross-validation comparison of three software packages for Monte Carlo ray tracing (MCRT) applied to central tower concentrating solar power (CSP) systems. The three packages evaluated are: (1) SolTrace, an open-source tool developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL); (2) Solstice, an open-source program created by CNRS-PROMES and Meso-Star, with enhancements for CSP applications (called solsticepy) from the Australian National University; and (3) TieSOL, a commercial software developed by Tietronix. This investigation extends previous ray tracing comparisons by incorporating models of multi-facet heliostats within a commercial-scale solar field, taking into account zoned focal lengths and canting configurations. Receiver flux distributions were compared across the tools using a series of case studies, including single-heliostat scenarios, isolated blocking situations, and comprehensive full-field simulations. The case studies were designed to diagnose differences across the models at varying levels of complexity, and to identify and resolve discrepancies as additional parameters were introduced. Key factors examined in the analysis include sun positions, heliostat location, facet and canting focus, and aimpoint strategies. The comparison aims to improve the accuracy and reliability of these tools while providing benchmark cases for validating future optical modeling tools.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Riders’ perceptions towards transit bus electrification: Evidence from Salt Lake City, Utah

While battery electric buses (BEBs) can lead to energy savings and reduced emissions, BEB adoption is developing slowly. Although BEBs offer quieter operations, better acceleration, and no smell of diesel or gas fumes, little focus has been placed on the user’s perspective. Here, this study investigates bus riders’ preferences toward BEBs. To achieve these objectives, a survey was designed and administered to solicit riders’ typical travel behaviors and patterns as well as preferences and opinions about BEBs’ performance in terms of emissions and noise. Statistical analysis showed that several factors influence rider perceptions towards transit bus electrification that include trip purpose, attitudes towards environmental issues and environmental impacts of BEBs, and certain non-instrumental ride factors such as ride comfort and social image. A better understanding of the importance of electrification to transit riders can help transit service providers adjust their marketing decisions and their systemwide operations to accommodate preferences towards BEBs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Diel dynamics of multi-omics in elkhorn fern provide new insights into weak CAM photosynthesis

Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) has high water-use efficiency (WUE) and is widely recognized to have evolved from C 3 photosynthesis. Different plant lineages have convergently evolved CAM, but the molecular mechanism that underlies C 3 -to-CAM evolution remains to be clarified. Platycerium bifurcatum (elkhorn fern) provides an opportunity to study the molecular changes underlying the transition from C 3 to CAM photosynthesis because both modes of photosynthesis occur in this species, with sporotrophophyll leaves (SLs) and cover leaves (CLs) performing C 3 and weak CAM photosynthesis, respectively. Here, we report that the physiological and biochemical attributes of CAM in weak CAM-performing CLs differed from those in strong CAM species. We investigated the diel dynamics of the metabolome, proteome, and transcriptome in these dimorphic leaves within the same genetic background and under identical environmental conditions. We found that multi-omic diel dynamics in P. bifurcatum exhibit both tissue and diel effects. Our analysis revealed temporal rewiring of biochemistry relevant to the energy-producing pathway (TCA cycle), CAM pathway, and stomatal movement in CLs compared with SLs. We also confirmed that PHOSPHOENOLPYRUVATE CARBOXYLASE KINASE (PPCK) exhibits convergence in gene expression among highly divergent CAM lineages. Gene regulatory network analysis identified candidate transcription factors regulating the CAM pathway and stomatal movement. Taken together, our results provide new insights into weak CAM photosynthesis and new avenues for CAM bioengineering.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Nanostructuring and Underscreening of Bisalt Electrolytes with Dual-Anion Effects: Insights from Small-Angle Scattering Prepeak Analysis

Using small-angle neutron scattering, we studied the nanostructure of a prototypical D(H)-bonded network electrolyte, alkaline sodium aluminate bisalt, at concentrations up to solute volume fraction of ~0.5. Analysis of the structure factor prepeak at 0.1 < Q < 1.0 Å-1 showed that its evolution is associated with nanoscopic species distribution in water-anion network., with differences in characteristic distance d between OD- and Al(OD)4- anions related to their distinct sizes and interactions. When the solute volume fraction approached 0.5, a common/maximum value of ~4.5 Å was found for the correlation length ? that characterizes the electrostatic force in concentrated electrolyte solution before precipitation occurred. This implies that the solutions’ morphology and behavior at high concentrations may be governed by geometric factors, rather than the chemistry of the specific anion. Furthermore, the scaling of ? with concentration yielded an exponent of 1.25(1), suggesting that ? is limited to a few Å. By combining the current observations of structural heterogeneity at the nanoscale, with dynamic heterogeneity at the microscopic scale from our previous quasi-elastic neutron scattering study, we have established a structural origin of local “caging” and restricted structural relaxation processes. These local solvent-solute interactions not only control dynamics heterogeneity in concentrated electrolytes but also are responsible for crystallization processes in industrial setting, such as aluminum production and radioactive waste treatment.

Wang, Hsiu-Wen↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probing Surface Plasmon Dynamics in Periodic Nanostructures through Ultrafast Electron Microscopy

Surface plasmon polaritons (SPPs) can be manipulated to localize and guide light in subwavelength distances, enabling them to find applications in a wide range of areas, from sensing to quantum computing. Among several methods of SPP excitation, periodic arrays of nano- and microstructures are of particular interest, as they enable engineering SPP properties through structural parameters. Here, in this study, using the photon-induced near-field electron microscopy (PINEM) technique, we investigated the mode formation, coupling, interference, and decay of SPPs in square and hexagonal arrays of circular nanoholes under both visible and near-infrared excitation. Polarization-resolved analysis revealed the key factors governing SPP localization and interference patterns, showing that the periodicity and symmetry of the array primarily determine the SPP interference patterns and their orientation, while pump polarization mainly modulates their intensity. Time-resolved PINEM measurements demonstrated the spatial dependence of the SPP temporal characteristics. In addition, cathodoluminescence (CL) spectroscopy was employed to examine the intrinsic plasmonic characteristics of the structure. Finite difference time domain (FDTD) simulations showed strong agreement with both PINEM and CL measurements on the spatial and spectral behavior of SPPs. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of SPPs on nanostructures beyond the diffraction limit is crucial for optimizing plasmonic structures for advanced photonic and quantum technologies.

Plasmonics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Aerosol Influences on Cloud Water: Insights From ARM EPCAPE Observations With Explainable Machine Learning

This study employs an explainable machine learning (ML) framework (XGBoost-SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis) to investigate controlling factors on cloud liquid water path (LWP) using EPCAPE observations near the California coast. Aerosols are found to be the dominant factor explaining LWP variability, surpassing meteorological factors (MFs). By isolating aerosol effects from meteorological influences, the ML reveals a negative linear relationship between LWP and cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) in log space, likely driven by entrainment drying via evaporation-entrainment feedback. This aligns with the negative regime of the inverted-V relationship reported in previous studies, while no positive LWP responses are found due to a limited number of precipitating cases in EPCAPE. Furthermore, the sensitivity of LWP to Nd shows a non-linear dependence on MFs like moisture contrast between surface and free troposphere and lower-tropospheric stability. This occurs due to the interplay between the MFs' direct effects on entrainment drying and indirect effects through LWP adjustments.

EPCAPE observations↗
DOE OSTI2023

Finalizing Transition to the New Data Center at BNL

Computational science, data management and analysis have been key factors in the success of Brookhaven National Laboratory's scientific programs at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC), the National Synchrotron Light Source (NSLS-II), the Center for Functional Nanomaterials (CFN), and in biological, atmospheric, and energy systems science, Lattice Quantum Chromodynamics (LQCD) and Materials Science, as well as our participation in international research collaborations, such as the ATLAS Experiment at Europe's Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN (Switzerland) and the Belle II Experiment at KEK (Japan). The construction of a new data center is an acknowledgement of the increasing demand for computing and storage services at BNL in the near term and enable the Lab to address the needs of the future experiments at the High-Luminosity LHC at CERN and the Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) at BNL in the long term. The Computing Facility Revitalization (CFR) project is aimed at repurposing the former National Synchrotron Light Source (NSLS-I) building as the new data center for BNL. The construction of the new data center was finished in 2021Q3, and it was delivered for production in early FY2022 for all collaborations supported by the Scientific Data and Computing Center (SDCC), including STAR, PHENIX and sPHENIX experiments at RHIC collider at BNL, the Belle II Experiment at KEK (Japan), and the Computational Science Initiative at BNL (CSI). This paper highlights the key mechanical, electrical, and networking components of the new data center in its final configuration as used in production since 2021Q4 and gives an overview for the extension of the central network systems into the new data center and the migration of a significant portion of IT load and services from the old data center to the new data center carried out in 20212023, with expected completion of the main phase of the gradual IT equipment replacement and migration from the old data center into the new one set to the end of FY2023 (Sep 30, 2023).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Conductivity space isotherm behavior in quantum anomalous Hall devices

The quantum Hall effect (QHE) has enhanced accessibility to measure and disseminate electrical units, owed in part to the recently redefined International System of Units in 2019. Graphene remains one of the preferred options to realize the ohm despite the limitations of high magnetic fields to produce a robust QHE. Topological insulators, on the other hand, show promise in providing quantized resistance via the quantum anomalous Hall effect, a phenomenon that removes the need for magnetic fields during operation. To optimize future devices for metrological applications, it is important to gain a better understanding of magnetically doped topological insulators like Cr-doped bismuth antimony telluride. The application of differential conductivity space analyses offers a more sensitive way to analyze the data and distinguish between 2D and 3D transport behaviors. This is particularly important in thin films, where the transition between 2D and 3D behavior can be subtle. The ability to confidently determine the dimensionality of the transport is crucial for selecting appropriate theoretical models for future device optimization. Furthermore, this work identifies variable range hopping as the dominant transport mechanism in the 2D regime using a rigorous statistical analysis (via the Bayes factor). These elements assist in the understanding of microscopic processes that govern charge transport in these materials.

Tran, N. T. M. [National Inst. of Standards and Te↗
DOE OSTI2024

Insights on seasonal solifluction processes in warm permafrost Arctic landscape using a dense monitoring approach across adjacent hillslopes

Solifluction processes in the Arctic are highly complex, introducing uncertainties in estimating current and future soil carbon storage and fluxes, and assessment of hillslope and infrastructure stability. This study aims to enhance our understanding of triggers and drivers of soil movement of permafrost-affected hillslopes in the Arctic. To achieve this, we established an extensive soil deformation and temperature sensor network, covering 48 locations across multiple hillslopes within a 1 km² watershed on the Seward Peninsula, AK. We report depth-resolved measurements down to 1.8 m depth for May to September 2022, a period conducive to soil movement due to deepening thaw layers and frequent rain events. Over this period, surface movements of up to 334 mm were recorded. In general, these movements occur close to the thawing front, and are initiated as thawing reaches depths of 0.4 to 0.75 m. The largest movements were observed at the top of the south-east facing slope, where soil temperatures are cold (mean annual soil temperatures averaging -1.13°C) and slopes are steeper than 15°. Our analysis highlights three primary factors influencing movements: slope angle, soil thermal conditions, and thaw depth. The latter two significantly impact the generation of pore water pressures at the thaw–freeze interface. Specifically, soil thermal conditions govern the liquid water content, while thaw depth influences both the height of the water column and, consequently, the pressure at the thawing front. These factors affect soil properties, such as cohesion and internal friction angle, which are crucial determinants of slope stability. This underscores the significance of a precise understanding of subsurface thermal conditions, including spatial and temporal variability in soil temperature and thaw depth, when assessing and predicting slope instabilities. Based on our observations, we developed a Factor of Safety proxy that consistently falls below the triggering threshold for all probes exhibiting displacements exceeding 50 mm. This study offers novel insights into patterns and triggers of hillslope movements in the Arctic and provides a venue to evaluate their impact on soil redistribution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Rubisco regulation in response to altered carbon status in the cyanobacterium Synechococcus elongatus PCC 7942

Abstract Photosynthetic organisms possess a variety of mechanisms to achieve balance between absorbed light (source) and the capacity to metabolically utilize or dissipate this energy (sink). While regulatory processes that detect changes in metabolic status/balance are relatively well studied in plants, analogous pathways remain poorly characterized in photosynthetic microbes. Here, we explored systemic changes that result from alterations in carbon availability in the model cyanobacterium Synechococcus elongatus PCC 7942 by taking advantage of an engineered strain where influx/efflux of a central carbon metabolite, sucrose, can be regulated experimentally. We observed that induction of a high-flux sucrose export pathway leads to depletion of internal carbon storage pools (glycogen) and concurrent increases in estimates of photosynthetic activity. Further, a proteome-wide analysis and fluorescence reporter-based analysis revealed that upregulated factors following the activation of the metabolic sink are concentrated on ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase-oxygenase (Rubisco) and auxiliary modules involved in Rubisco maturation. Carboxysome number and Rubisco activity also increased following engagement of sucrose secretion. Conversely, reversing the flux of sucrose by feeding exogenous sucrose through the heterologous transporter resulted in increased glycogen pools, decreased Rubisco abundance, and carboxysome reorganization. Our data suggest that Rubisco activity and organization are key variables connected to regulatory pathways involved in metabolic balancing in cyanobacteria.

Plant Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cross-scale dynamics and the evolutionary emergence of infectious diseases

When emerging pathogens encounter new host species for which they are poorly adapted, they must evolve to escape extinction. Pathogens experience selection on traits at multiple scales, including replication rates within host individuals and transmissibility between hosts. We analyze a stochastic model linking pathogen growth and competition within individuals to transmission between individuals. Our analysis reveals a new factor, the cross-scale reproductive number of a mutant virion, that quantifies how quickly mutant strains increase in frequency when they initially appear in the infected host population. This cross-scale reproductive number combines with viral mutation rates, single-strain reproductive numbers, and transmission bottleneck width to determine the likelihood of evolutionary emergence, and whether evolution occurs swiftly or gradually within chains of transmission. We find that wider transmission bottlenecks facilitate emergence of pathogens with short-term infections, but hinder emergence of pathogens exhibiting cross-scale selective conflict and long-term infections. Furthermore, our results provide a framework to advance the integration of laboratory, clinical, and field data in the context of evolutionary theory, laying the foundation for a new generation of evidence-based risk assessment of emergence threats.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transverse energy-energy correlators in the color-glass condensate at the electron-ion collider

We investigate the transverse energy-energy correlators (TEEC) in the small- x regime at the upcoming Electron-Ion Collider (EIC). Focusing on the back-to-back production of electron-hadron pairs in both e p and e A collisions, we establish a factorization formula given in terms of the hard function, quark distributions, soft functions, and TEEC jet functions, where the gluon saturation effect is incorporated. Numerical results for TEEC in both e p and e A collisions are presented, together with the nuclear modification factor R A . Our analysis reveals that TEEC observables in deep inelastic scattering provide a valuable approach for probing gluon saturation phenomena. Our findings underscore the significance of measuring TEEC at the EIC, emphasizing its efficacy in advancing our understanding of gluon saturation and nuclear modifications in high-energy collisions. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Considering the Variability of Soiling in Long-Term PV Performance Forecasting

This study presents the development of a methodology for evaluating the variability associated with soiling on long-term photovoltaic (PV) forecasting. Independent engineering firms typically build forecasts for large PV plants through the use of the PVsyst software, where monthly soiling losses are one of many inputs to the P50 model. Subsequently, long-term performance distributions are constructed through a Monte Carlo analysis that includes various factors, such as satellite irradiance modeling uncertainty, uncertainty in the PVsyst model, and long-term irradiance variability. Often the PVsyst model uncertainty is increased to account for sites with significant soiling concerns but no systematic method has been presented in the literature to specifically include soiling variability within long-term performance uncertainty. In this work soiling information from 16 sites in the U.S. Southwest are combined with 24 years of rainfall data to generate 24 years of energy production with soiling losses and then subsequently generate probability of exceedance values (e.g., P50, P90, P95…). The results show that the size of the 90% confidence interval (P5–P95) can increase from –0.7% to 10.1% when interannual soiling variability and soiling rate uncertainty is included.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗