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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2002

The Extreme Universe Space Observatory

This talk will describe the Extreme Universe Space Observatory (EUSO) mission. EUSO is an ESA mission to explore the most powerful energy sources in the universe. The mission objectives of EUSO are to investigate EECRs, those with energies above 3x10(exp 19) eV, and very high-energy cosmic neutrinos. These objectives are directly related to extreme conditions in the physical world and possibly involve the early history of the big bang and the framework of GUTs. EUSO tackles the basic problem posed by the existence of these extreme-energy events. The solution could have a unique impact on fundamental physics, cosmology, and/or astrophysics. At these energies, magnetic deflection is thought to be so small that the EECR component would serve as the particle channel for astronomy. EUSO will make the first measurements of EAS from space by observing atmospheric fluorescence in the Earth's night sky. With measurements of the airshower track, EUSO will determine the energy and arrival direction of these extreme-energy events. EUSO will make high statistics observations of CRs beyond the predicted GZK cutoff energy and widen the channel for high-energy neutrino astronomy. The energy spectra, arrival directions, and shower profiles will be analyzed to distinguish the nature of these events and search for their sources. With EUSO data, we will have the possibility to discover a local EECR source, test Z-burst scenarios and other theories, and look for evidence of the breakdown of the relativity principle at extreme Lorentz factors.

Adams, Jim↗
NASA NTRS2008

Extreme Space Weather Events and Charging Hazard Assessments in Lunar Environments

The sunlit lunar surface charges to positive potentials with mean values of a few tens of volts where photoelectron currents dominate the charging process. In contrast, surfaces in darkness may charge to negative potentials on the order of a few hundred volts when the charging process is dominated by hot electron populations in the absence of solar photons. Recently, observations of electron beams measured by instruments on spacecraft in low lunar orbit have been interpreted as evidence for extreme lunar surface potentials exceeding a few kilovolts suggesting that lunar orbital and surface plasma environments may contain charging risks similar to geostationary orbit during extreme space weather conditions. Space system design for successful operation in a wide range of lunar environments will therefore require evaluation of charging hazards during extreme space weather conditions. We present results from a study of space weather environments conducted to obtained credible extreme charging environments for use in charging hazard assessments for lunar missions including extreme conditions encountered when the Moon is in the solar wind, the magnetosheath, and the Earth's magnetotail.

Minow, Joseph I.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Electronic Components for use in Extreme Temperature Aerospace Applications

Electrical power management and control systems designed for use in planetary exploration missions and deep space probes require electronics that are capable of efficient and reliable operation under extreme temperature conditions. Space-based infra-red satellites, all-electric ships, jet engines, electromagnetic launchers, magnetic levitation transport systems, and power facilities are also typical examples where the electronics are expected to be exposed to harsh temperatures and to operate under severe thermal swings. Most commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) devices are not designed to function under such extreme conditions and, therefore, new parts must be developed or the conventional devices need to be modified. For example, spacecraft operating in the cold environment of deep space carry a large number of radioisotope heating units in order to maintain the surrounding temperature of the on-board electronics at approximately 20 C. At the other end, built-in radiators and coolers render the operation of electronics possible under hot conditions. These thermal measures lead to design complexity, affect development costs, and increase size and weight. Electronics capable of operation at extreme temperatures, thus, will not only tolerate the hostile operational environment, but also make the overall system efficient, more reliable, and less expensive. The Extreme Temperature Electronics Program at the NASA Glenn Research Center focuses on research and development of electronics suitable for applications in the aerospace environment and deep space exploration missions. Research is being conducted on devices, including COTS parts, for potential use under extreme temperatures. These components include semiconductor switching devices, passive devices, DC/DC converters, operational amplifiers, and oscillators. An overview of the program will be presented along with some experimental findings.

Patterson, Richard L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Characterization of Low Noise, Precision Voltage Reference REF5025-HT Under Extreme Temperatures

The performance of Texas Instruments precision voltage reference REF5025-HT was assessed under extreme temperatures. This low noise, 2.5 V output chip is suitable for use in high temperature down-hole drilling applications, but no data existed on its performance at cryogenic temperatures. The device was characterized in terms of output voltage and supply current at different input voltage levels as a function of temperature between +210 C and -190 C. Line and load regulation characteristics were also established at six load levels and at different temperatures. Restart capability at extreme temperatures and the effects of thermal cycling, covering the test temperature range, on its operation and stability were also investigated. Under no load condition, the voltage reference chip exhibited good stability in its output over the temperature range of -50 C to +200 C. Outside that temperature range, output voltage did change as temperature was changed. For example, at the extreme temperatures of +210 C and - 190 C, the output level dropped to 2.43 V and 2.32 V, respectively as compared to the nominal value of 2.5 V. At cryogenic test temperatures of -100 C and -150 C the output voltage dropped by about 20%. The quiescent supply current of the voltage reference varied slightly with temperature but remained close to its specified value. In terms of line regulation, the device exhibited excellent stability between -50 C and +150 C over the entire input voltage range and load levels. At the other test temperatures, however, while line regulation became poor at cryogenic temperatures of -100 C and below, it suffered slight degradation at the extreme high temperature but only at the high load level of 10 mA. The voltage reference also exhibited very good load regulation with temperature down to -100 C, but its output dropped sharply at +210 C only at the heavy load of 10 mA. The semiconductor chip was able restart at the extreme temperatures of -190 C and +210 C, and the limited thermal cycling did not influence its characteristics and had no impact on its packaging as no structural or physical damage was observed.

Patterson, Richard↗
NASA NTRS2015

Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.

Variability↗
NASA NTRS2016

Impacts of Extreme Events on Human Health

Increased Exposure to Extreme Events Key Finding 1: Health impacts associated with climate-related changes in exposure to extreme events include death, injury, or illness; exacerbation of underlying medical conditions; and adverse effects on mental health[High Confidence]. Climate change will increase exposure risk in some regions of the United States due to projected increases in the frequency and/or intensity of drought, wildfires, and flooding related to extreme precipitation and hurricanes [Medium Confidence].Disruption of Essential Infrastructure Key Finding 2: Many types of extreme events related to climate change cause disruption of infrastructure, including power, water, transportation, and communication systems, that are essential to maintaining access to health care and emergency response services and safeguarding human health [High Confidence].Vulnerability to Coastal Flooding Key Finding 3: Coastal populations with greater vulnerability to health impacts from coastal flooding include persons with disabilities or other access and functional needs, certain populations of color, older adults, pregnant women and children, low-income populations, and some occupational groups [High Confidence].Climate change will increase exposure risk to coastal flooding due to increases in extreme precipitation and in hurricane intensity and rainfall rates, as well as sea level rise and the resulting increases in storm surge.

floods↗
NASA NTRS2016

Heat-shield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) Development Status

The Heat shield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) Project is a NASA STMD and SMD co-funded effort. The goal is to develop and mission infuse a new ablative Thermal Protection System that can withstand extreme entry. It is targeted to support NASA's high priority missions, as defined in the latest decadal survey, to destinations such as Venus and Saturn in-situ robotic science missions. Entry into these planetary atmospheres results in extreme heating. The entry peak heat-flux and associated pressure are estimated to be between one and two orders of magnitude higher than those experienced by Mars Science Laboratory or Lunar return missions. In the recent New Frontiers community announcement NASA has indicated that it is considering providing an increase to the PI managed mission cost (PIMMC) for investigations utilizing the Heat Shield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) and in addition, NASA is considering limiting the risk assessment to only their accommodation on the spacecraft and the mission environment. The HEEET ablative TPS utilizes 3D weaving technology to manufacture a dual layer material architecture. The 3-D weaving allows for flat panels to be woven. The dual layer consists of a top layer designed to withstand the extreme external environment while the inner or insulating layer by design, is designed to achieve low thermal conductivity, and it keeps the heat from conducting towards the structure underneath. Both arc jet testing combined with material properties have been used to develop thermal response models that allows for comparison of performance with heritage carbon phenolic. A 50% mass efficiency is achieved by the dual layer construct compared to carbon phenolic for a broad range of missions both to Saturn and Venus. The 3-D woven flat preforms are molded to achieve the shape as they are compliant and then resin infusion with curing forms a rigid panels. These panels are then bonded on to the aeroshell structure. Gaps exist between the panels and these gaps have to be filled with seams. The seam material then has to be bonded on to adjacent panels and also to the structure. The heat-shield assembly is shown in Figure 1. One of the significant challenges we have overcome recently is the design, development and testing of the seam. HEEET material development and the seam concept development have utilized some of the unique test capabilities available in the US. The various test facilities utilized in thermal testing along with the entry environment for Saturn and Venus missions are shown in Figure 2. The HEEET project is currently in it's 3rd year of a four-year development. Figure 3 illustrates the key accomplishments to-date and the challenges yet to be overcome before the technology is ready for mission infusion. This proposed presentation will cover both progress that has been made in the HEEET project and also the challenges to be overcome that is highlighted in Figure 3. Objective of the HEEET project is to mature the system in time to support the next New Frontiers opportunity and we believe we are well along the way to mission infuse HEEET.

TPS↗
NASA NTRS2019

MERRA-2 Data and Analytic Services at NASA GES DISC for Climate Extremes Study

NASA's climate reanalysis datasets from the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) contains numerous long-term atmosphere, land, and ocean data products from 1980-present. MERRA-2 datasets, such as precipitation, soil moisture, and temperature, have been used widely to study extreme events. The native archived MERRA-2 data files are day-file (hourly time interval) and month-file, containing up to 125 parameters in one file. Due to the large number of data files and volumes, it is challenging for users, especially the applications research community, to handle the original hourly data files for long time periods to analyze extreme events. In this presentation, we review MERRA-2 data for studies of extreme conditions, and demonstrate analytic services at the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). One of the current operational services, 'subsetter', allows users to download only specific data of interest, i.e. data selected by parameter, region, and time period. New services are under development that will provide more 'on-the-fly' statistical calculations when downloading data; improve efficiency when accessing long time-series data. We will provide additional "How-to" resources that include step-by-step instructions on data access and usage. We have tested restructuring of day-files in an optimized data cube, which has significantly improved system performance for accessing long time-series. Overall performance is associated with cube size and structure, data compression method, and how the data are accessed. The optimized data cube structure will enable better online analytic services for statistical analysis and extreme events mining. To demonstrate the service, we use an extreme drought associated with the anomalous 2016 monsoon over southern Asia. This prototype time-series service may be augmented in the cloud infrastructure in the future.

data access↗
NASA NTRS2020

Near 40 Years MERRA-2 Data at NASA GES DISC -Opportunity and Challenge to Support Extremes Study

To the end of 2019, 40 years NASA climate reanalysis data sets from the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) will be available at NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). MERRA-2 consists atmosphere, land, and ocean data, which may be used for the studies ranging from the short scale weather events to the large scale decadal vulnerabilities. The hourly products, such as precipitation, soil moisture, temperature, and aerosols etc., have been used widely to study extreme events.In supporting users from broad communities, GES DISC have developed various data access services, including subsetter for downloading only data of interest with preferred format; OPeNDAP - for machine-to-machine data access; and Giovanni- for online visualization and analysis, etc. A big challenge for extreme study is to downloading and processing long-term hourly or daily data. The data downloading performance is not very satisfied by many users with current services and the native archived data structure. Late June 2019, many people in Europe had experienced extreme heat waves. The temperatures in several countries exceeded 40°C (104°F). For example, MERRA-2 shows that the near surface daily maximum temperature of June 28 2019 over Marseille, a city in southern France, reached 41.1 °C (106°F), which is the record breaking temperature in the last 40 years. GES DISC is working together with domain science experts to improve the performance of long time series access, making analysis ready data sets in supporting application researches, such as extreme study. In this presentation, using Europe heat wave as an example, we will show prototype of the in developing service for finding extremes from near 40 years MERRA-2 data at a given location. MERRA-2 data can be accessed from NASA GES DISC(https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/ ) by search keyword "MERRA-2".

Shen, Suhung↗
NASA NTRS2020

Large-Scale Influences on Atmospheric River Induced Extreme Precipitation Events Along the Coast of Washington State

Transient, narrow plumes of strong water vapor transport, referred to as AtmosphericRivers (ARs), are responsible for much of the precipitation along the west coast of the UnitedStates. The most intense precipitation events are almost always induced by an AR on the coast ofOregon and Washington and can result in detrimental impacts on society due to mudslides andflooding. In order to accurately predict AR events on numerical weather prediction, subseasonal,and seasonal timescales, it is important to understand the large-scale impacts on extreme ARevents. Here, characteristics of ARs that result in an extreme precipitation event are compared totypical ARs on the coast of Washington State. In addition to more intense water vapor transport,notable differences in the synoptic forcing are present during extreme precipitation events thatare not present during typical AR events. Subseasonal and seasonal teleconnection patterns areknown to influence the weather in the Pacific Northwest and are investigated here. The MaddenJulian Oscillation (MJO) plays a role in determining the strength of precipitation associated withan AR on the Washington Coast. Phase 5 of the MJO (convection centered over the maritimecontinent) is the most common phase during an extreme precipitation event, while phase 2(convection over the Indian Ocean) discourages an extreme event from occurring. Interactionsbetween El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the propagation speed of the MJO result inextreme events during phase 1 of the MJO and El Niño but phase 8 during neutral ESNOconditions.

Allison B Marquardt Collow↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Seasonal Prediction of an Extreme Temperature Index over the United States

Heat extremes have the potential to cause significant societal harm; advanced warming of the frequency of these events for a given season could help with planning and mitigation measures. While an individual temperature extreme event may not be predictable on seasonal time scales, the number of such events could be. In this study, we use an index representing the number of extreme days per summer to examine the ability of NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction system to predict summertime temperature extremes over the continental United States. The index is defined as the number of days per summer (June-August) where the daily mean temperature is above the calendar-day 90th percentile and is computed for 1991-2020 using the GEOS-S2S seasonal retrospective forecasts as well as the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2). Temporal correlations are assessed over this period at the grid point scale, indicating significant correlation between the retrospective forecasts and MERRA-2, particularly in the western half of the United States. Spatial correlations between the retrospective forecast and MERRA-2 indices are computed over the United States for each year revealing year-to-year variability in the forecast skill. We investigate local and remote processes associated with increased prediction skill of summertime temperature extremes in a given year.

Natalie Thomas↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-Level Impacts of Extreme Climate-Related Events on Food Supply Chain: Idaho Potato's Case Study

Background: The world is experiencing frequent extreme weather events like droughts, floods, snowstorms, and shifting of seasons due to climate change. Increasing frequencies and severity of these extreme weather events threaten food security because agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Higher temperature reduces overall yields of the desirable crops but proliferates weeds and harmful pests. Current data shows that every year U.S. farmers spend more than 11 billion USD to fight weeds and this number is expected to rise in the coming years due to climate change. Due to droughts, the water required for irrigation is becoming scarcer. Since many areas are becoming climatically unusable for crop production, the amount of farmland area is shrinking rapidly. In addition, changes in precipitation patterns are causing crop failures and negatively impacting expected yields. In this study, we investigated how different extreme climate events impact different stages of a food supply chain. Approach: As a case study, we chose Idaho’s potato supply chain (SC). Idaho is the top potato producing state in the U.S. and contributes around 30% of the nation’s potato production. Using the agent-based modeling (ABM) approach, we developed a multi-echelon potato supply chain computer simulation model with six types of agents – seed producers, farmers, shippers, processors, retailers, and logistics companies. In addition to the baseline scenario, we developed two additional climate-related disruption events – drought and snowstorm. We investigated how each of these disruption events impacts different stakeholders across the supply chain in terms of revenue and some other key performance metrics such as lead time, food waste, number of delayed orders, and order fulfillment rate. Results: Extreme climate events not only impact the growers but there is also cascading ripple effects downstream of the supply chain. The methodology developed in this study could be applied to other food and agricultural SC to understand the vulnerabilities of the different links. The findings would potentially help to adopt new policies for the well-being of the overall SC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analyzing at-scale distribution grid response to extreme temperatures

Threats against power grids continue to increase, as extreme weather conditions and natural disasters (extreme events) become more frequent. Hence, there is a need for the simulation and modeling of power grids to reflect realistic conditions during extreme events conditions, especially distribution systems. Herein, this paper presents a modeling and simulation platform for electric distribution grids which can estimate overall power demand during extreme weather conditions. The presented platform's efficacy is shown by demonstrating estimation of electrical demand for 1) Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) during winter storm Uri in 2021, and 2) alternative hypothetical scenarios of integrating Distributed Energy Resources (DERs), weatherization, and load electrification. In comparing to the actual demand served by ERCOT during the winter storm Uri of 2021, the proposed platform estimates approximately 34 GW of peak capacity deficit. These numbers are consistent with state-of-the-art prediction results published in the literature. For the case of the future electrification of heating loads, peak capacity of 78 GW (124% increase) is estimated, which would be reduced to 47 GW (38% increase) with the adoption of efficient heating appliances and improved thermal insulation. Integrating distributed solar PV and storage into the grid causes improvement in the local energy utilization and hence reduces the potential unmet energy by 31% and 40%, respectively.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extreme flood return levels in a U.S. mid-Atlantic estuary using 40-year fluvial-coastal model simulations

Using an integrated watershed-coastal modeling framework, we conducted long-term historical simulations (1980-2019) of fluvial and coastal flooding in the Delaware Bay and River, a vulnerable estuarine system in the U.S., at high spatial resolutions. By applying process-based models, we generated physically consistent and spatially detailed estimates of estuarine, riverine, and surge-driven extreme water level compared to previous studies that used field data only. We then evaluated changes in the magnitude of flood events using the 40-year simulations and detrended Floodwater Depth values with stationary extreme value analysis. Our detailed assessment of spatial-varying extreme values revealed how different flood-generation mechanisms can dominate various zones in the estuary. The datasets produced through this work will be valuable for long-term flood hazard mitigation planning in coastal communities in the Delaware Bay and River region. Additionally, this work will serve as a benchmark for other coastal flood hazard modeling communities worldwide, aiding them in systematically modeling long-term and continuous extreme flood events.

Coastal and Riverine Flooding↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of present-day extreme precipitation over the United States: an inter-comparison of convection and dynamic permitting configurations of E3SMv1

Abstract Accurate simulation of the present-day characteristics of mean and extreme precipitation at regional scales remains a challenge for Earth system models, which is due in part to deficiencies in model physics such as convective parameterization (CP), and coarse resolution. High horizontal resolution (HR, ∼25 km) and multiscale modeling framework (MMF, i.e. replacing conventional CP with embedded km-scale cloud-resolving models) are two promising directions that could help improve the interaction between subgrid-scale physical processes and large-scale climate. Here, we evaluate simulated extreme precipitation over the United States (US) across three configurations (i.e. low-resolution [LR], HR, and MMF) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) and intercompare them against two gridded observation datasets (climate prediction center daily US precipitation and integrated multi-satellite retrievals for global precipitation measurement). We assess the model’s ability to simulate very heavy seasonal precipitation (illustrated by the difference between the 99th and 90th percentile values) as well as the spatial distributions of several extreme precipitation indices defined by the expert team on climate change detection and indices. Our results show that both the dry (i.e. consecutive dry days (CDD)) and wet (i.e. consecutive wet days, maximum 5 day precipitation, and very wet days) extremes evaluated herein show some improvement as well as degradation with MMF and HR relative to LR. These results vary across seasons and US subregions. For instance, only the very heavy precipitation of winter is improved with MMF and HR. Both configurations alleviate the well-known drizzling bias evident in LR across both winter and summer in many parts of the US, largely due to the overall improvement in intensity and frequency of precipitation. Additionally, our results suggest that while E3SMv1-MMF has higher intensity rates when it does rain, it has too many CDD during the summer, contributing to a low mean precipitation bias.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Roadmap for the future of extreme wildfire events

Background Extreme wildfire events (EWEs) represent a growing threat globally, posing substantial risks to ecosystems, human communities, and infrastructure. Despite increased recognition of their ecological, social, and economic significance, current definitions of EWEs vary widely, reflecting disciplinary biases and regional contexts. This article emerges from an interdisciplinary workshop convened to reassess and refine the definition of EWEs, examine their impacts across ecological and social dimensions, and identify critical knowledge gaps impeding our understanding of these infrequent but important events. Results Our synthesis highlights significant limitations with existing definitions, particularly their reliance on subjective thresholds and their emphasis on extreme fire behavior alone. EWEs encompass a spectrum of complex, multi-dimensional phenomena that extend beyond immediate biophysical characteristics to include cumulative social, economic, and ecological impacts. These impacts often manifest over extended timeframes and include hazardous environmental contamination, severe geomorphic disturbances, ecosystem transformations, and unintended consequences of post-fire management actions. Current wildfire modeling frameworks inadequately capture these compounding factors, particularly the interactions among social systems, ecological conditions, and extreme fire behavior. To overcome these issues, we advocate for an interdisciplinary and context-sensitive approach to defining and studying EWEs. This revised definition emphasizes wildfires exhibiting anomalies in fire behavior, ecological outcomes, or social impacts relative to historically observed baselines, accommodating variability across different geographic regions and ecological settings. Conclusions Adopting an interdisciplinary framework that integrates biophysical and social sciences will enhance the predictive capability of wildfire models and improve resilience planning and response strategies. Filling identified knowledge gaps—such as limited high-quality empirical fire behavior data and insufficient integration of social dynamics into modeling—will better prepare communities and ecosystems to cope with and adapt to EWEs. This inclusive approach underscores the necessity for collaboration across disciplines and sectors, essential to managing extreme wildfires in an era of increasing climatic and ecological uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A valuation framework for customers impacted by extreme temperature-related outages

Extreme temperature outages can lead to not just economic losses but also various non-energy impacts (NEI), such as increased mortality rates, property damage, and reduced productivity, due to significant degradation of indoor operating conditions caused by service disruptions. However, existing resilience assessment approaches lack specificity for extreme temperature conditions. They often overlook temperature-related mortality and neglect the customer characteristics and grid response in the calculation, despite the significant influence of these factors on NEI-related economic losses. This paper aims to address these gaps by introducing a comprehensive framework to estimate the impact of resilience enhancement not only on the direct economic losses incurred by customers but also on potential NEI, including mortality and the value of statistical life during extreme temperature-related outages. The proposed resilience valuation integrates customer characteristics and grid response variables based on a scalable grid simulation environment. This study adopts a holistic approach to quantify customer-oriented economic impacts, utilizing probabilistic loss scenarios that incorporate health-related factors and damage/loss models as a function of exposure for valuation. The proposed methodology is demonstrated through comparative resilient outage planning, using grid response models emulating a Texas weather zone during the 2021 winter storm Uri. The case study results show that enhanced outage planning with hardened infrastructure can improve the system resilience and thereby reduce the relative risk of mortality by 16% and save the total costs related to non-energy impacts by 74%. In conclusion, these findings underscore the efficacy of the framework by assessing the financial implications of each case, providing valuable insights for decision-makers and stakeholders involved in extreme-weather related resilience planning for risk management and mitigation strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrated modeling analysis of estuarine responses to extreme hydrological events and sea-level rise

Estuaries are vulnerable to climate change and are particularly sensitive to extreme river discharge (RD) and sea-level rise (SLR). To understand the effects of extreme RD and SLR on estuaries, an integrated modeling approach is adopted to simulate hydrodynamic changes in the Yangtze River Estuary. Model results showed that SLR will intensify the estuarine hydrodynamics in water level, currents, and salinity. Water level, current speed, and salinity increased linearly with the magnitude of SLR. The hydrological model suggested a lower RD in the future. This will increase the saltwater intrusion, which will be more severe during the lower RD and drought extreme hydrological event (EHE) conditions. Model results also suggested that the saltwater intrusion is more sensitive to RD than SLR. In addition, the interplay between the RD and SLR will exacerbate the impacts of coastal oceans on estuarine hydrodynamics, especially during extremely low RD conditions. Moreover, the decrease of RD and deepening of the channel due to human activities will also amplify the effects of SLR on the Estuary, increasing the risk of coastal disasters.

3-D hydrodynamic model, extreme climate, draught, ↗