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NASA NTRS2015

North American Extreme Temperature Events and Related Large Scale Meteorological Patterns: A Review of Statistical Methods, Dynamics, Modeling, and Trends

The objective of this paper is to review statistical methods, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends related to temperature extremes, with a focus upon extreme events of short duration that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The statistics, dynamics, and modeling sections of this paper are written to be autonomous and so can be read separately. Methods to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperature events are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplement more straightforward analyses. Various LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale structures, are associated with extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the synoptics and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the associated LSMPs is incomplete. Systematic studies of: the physics of LSMP life cycles, comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages, and LSMP properties are needed. Generally, climate models capture observed properties of heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreak frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Modeling studies have identified the impact of large-scale circulation anomalies and landatmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs to more specifically understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated. The paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.

Cold Spells↗

DOE OSTI2025

Large‐Scale Statistically Meaningful Patterns (LSMPs) Associated With Precipitation Extremes Over Northern California

Abstract We analyze large‐scale statistically meaningful patterns (LSMPs) that precede extreme precipitation (PEx) events over Northern California (NorCal). We find LSMPs by applying k‐means clustering to the two leading principal components of daily 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies two days before the onset, from October to March during 1948–2015. Statistical significance testing based on Monte Carlo simulations suggests a minimum of four statistically distinguished LSMP clusters. The four LSMP clusters are characterized as Northwest continental negative height anomaly, Eastward positive “Pacific‐North American Pattern (PNA),” Westward negative “PNA,” and Prominent Alaskan ridge. These four clusters, shown in multiple variables, evolve very differently and have differing links to the Arctic and tropical Pacific regions. Using binary forecast skill measures and a new copula‐based framework for predicting PEx events, we find LSMP indices that are useful predictors of NorCal PEx events, with moisture‐based variables being the best predictors of PEx events at least 6 days before the onset, and the lower atmospheric variables being better than their upper atmospheric counterparts any day in advance tested. To ensure statistical rigor, the LSMPs analyzed here (with the modified acronym) include local tests of both significance and consistency, which are not always featured in the literature on large‐scale meteorological patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Optimal Power Flow With State Estimation in the Loop for Distribution Networks

Here in this article, we propose a framework for running optimal control-estimation synthesis in distribution networks. Our approach combines a primal-dual gradient-based optimal power flow solver with a state estimation feedback loop based on a limited set of sensors for system monitoring, instead of assuming exact knowledge of all states. The estimation algorithm reduces uncertainty on unmeasured grid states based on certain online state measurements and noisy "pseudomeasurements." We analyze the convergence of the proposed algorithm and quantify the statistical estimation errors based on a weighted least-squares estimator. The numerical results on a 4521-node network demonstrate that this approach can scale to extremely large networks and provide robustness to both large pseudomeasurement variability and inherent sensor measurement noise.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2020

Large-Scale Influences on Atmospheric River Induced Extreme Precipitation Events Along the Coast of Washington State

Transient, narrow plumes of strong water vapor transport, referred to as AtmosphericRivers (ARs), are responsible for much of the precipitation along the west coast of the UnitedStates. The most intense precipitation events are almost always induced by an AR on the coast ofOregon and Washington and can result in detrimental impacts on society due to mudslides andflooding. In order to accurately predict AR events on numerical weather prediction, subseasonal,and seasonal timescales, it is important to understand the large-scale impacts on extreme ARevents. Here, characteristics of ARs that result in an extreme precipitation event are compared totypical ARs on the coast of Washington State. In addition to more intense water vapor transport,notable differences in the synoptic forcing are present during extreme precipitation events thatare not present during typical AR events. Subseasonal and seasonal teleconnection patterns areknown to influence the weather in the Pacific Northwest and are investigated here. The MaddenJulian Oscillation (MJO) plays a role in determining the strength of precipitation associated withan AR on the Washington Coast. Phase 5 of the MJO (convection centered over the maritimecontinent) is the most common phase during an extreme precipitation event, while phase 2(convection over the Indian Ocean) discourages an extreme event from occurring. Interactionsbetween El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the propagation speed of the MJO result inextreme events during phase 1 of the MJO and El Niño but phase 8 during neutral ESNOconditions.

Allison B Marquardt Collow↗

DOE OSTI2021

Constraining $\mathcal{f(R)}$ gravity with a $\mathcal{k}$-cut cosmic shear analysis of the Hyper Suprime-Cam first-year data

Here, using Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) year 1 data, we perform the first k-cut cosmic shear analysis constraining both Λ CDM and f(R) Hu-Sawicki modified gravity. To generate the f(R) cosmic shear theory vector, we use the matter power spectrum emulator trained on COLA (COmoving Lagrangian Acceleration) simulations [Phys. Rev. D 103, 123525 (2021)]. The k-cut method is used to significantly down-weight sensitivity to small scale (k > 1h Mpc -1 ) modes in the matter power spectrum where the emulator is less accurate, while simultaneously ensuring our results are robust to baryonic feedback model uncertainty. We have also developed a test to ensure that the effects of poorly modeled small scales are nulled as intended. For Λ CDM we find S 8 =σ 8 (Ω m /0.3) 0.5 =0.789$^{+0.039}_{-0.022}$, while the constraints on the f(R) modified gravity parameters are prior dominated. In the future, the k-cut method could be used to constrain a large number of theories of gravity where computational limitations make it infeasible to model the matter power spectrum down to extremely small scales.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Changing Degree of Convective Organization as a Mechanism for Dynamic Changes in Extreme Precipitation

Purpose of Review: What does recent work say about how changes in convective organization could lead to changes in extreme precipitation? Recent Findings: Changing convective organization is one mechanism that could explain variation in extreme precipitation increase through dynamics. In models, the effects of convective self-aggregation on extreme precipitation are sensitive to parameterization, among other factors. In both models and observations, whether or not convective organization influences extreme precipitation is sensitive to the time and space scales analyzed, affecting extreme precipitation on some scales but not others. While trends in observations in convective organization associated with mean precipitation have been identified, it has not yet been established whether these trends are robust or relevant for events associated with extreme precipitation. Summary: Recent work has documented a somewhat view of how changes in convective organization could affect extreme precipitation with warming, and it remains unclear whether or not they do.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2004

Neutral Middle Atmospheric Influences by the Extremely Large October 2003 Solar Proton Event

The huge coronal mass ejection (CME) on October 28,2003 caused an extremely large solar proton event (SPE) at the Earth, which impacted the middle atmospheric polar cap regions. The highly energetic protons produce ionizations, excitations, dissociations, and dissociative ionizations of the background constituents, which lead to the production of HOx (H, OH, HO2) and NOy (N, NO, NO2, NO3, N2O5, HNO3, HO2NO2, ClONO2, BrONO2). The total production of middle atmospheric NOy molecules by individual SPEs can be used to compare their sizes. Using this scale, the extremely large October 2003 SPE was the fourth largest in the past 40 years and the second largest of solar cycle 23. Only the October 1989, August 1972, and July 2000 SPEs were larger. The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Two-dimensional (2D) Model was used in computing the influence of this gigantic SPE. The NOy amount was increased by over two orders of magnitude in the mesosphere in both the GSFC 2D Model computations and Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) measurements as a result of this noteworthy SPE. The model also calculated polar middle mesospheric ozone decreases of over 70% during the SPE. Other atmospheric impacts from both model predictions and measurements as a result of this major SPE will be discussed in this paper.

Jackman, C. H.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Nanoscale Turing patterns in a bismuth monolayer

Turing’s reaction–diffusion theory of morphogenesis has been very successful for understanding macroscopic patterns within complex objects ranging from biological systems to sand dunes. However, Turing patterns on microscopic length scales are extremely rare. Here we show that a strained atomic bismuth monolayer assembled on the surface of NbSe 2 —and subject to interatomic interactions and kinetics—displays Turing patterns. Our reaction–diffusion model produces stripe patterns with a period of five atoms (approximately 2 nm) and domain walls with Y-shaped junctions that bear a striking resemblance to what has been experimentally observed. Our work establishes that Turing patterns can occur at the atomic scale in a hard condensed-matter setting.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Department of Energy’s Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Program’s Workshop on the Future of Atmospheric Large Eddy Simulation (LES): Workshop Report

Large-eddy simulation (LES) is used as a tool to understand physical processes such as turbulence, aerosols, clouds, precipitation, radiation, the interactions among all these, and their interactions with the underlying surface. Over the next 10 years, LES will drive fundamental progress in open scientific questions in these areas as LES is increasingly used to gain understanding of complex interacting physical processes involving atmospheric turbulence. This growth will be driven both by scientific demand and the expansion of computational resources needed to conduct LES, and the form that the growth takes will largely be determined by how computational resources are leveraged for scientific gain. In particular, we suggest that computational resources are likely to be leveraged in two separate but not necessarily distinct ways. On one hand, growth in computational resources will allow LES to be made more routine, that is, performed more frequently, while on the other hand, the computational expense (measured in total floating point operations) afforded to individual LES will expand dramatically, allowing simulations to increase in both domain size and resolution as well as physical detail. Current U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) projects such as LES ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation Activity (LASSO) are leading the way in conducting routine LES, building large, public databases that are accessible for data science, sensitivity studies, and training for machine learning. LES will also become more routine as it becomes more accessible for individual researchers to address their scientific questions of interest. Scientific questions addressed by LES over the next 10 years are likely to include cloud organization and aggregation; aerosol cloud interactions and atmospheric chemistry (including geo-engineering); urban-scale LES; atmospheric extreme events, ranging from small-scale severe weather to wildfires; and ocean-wave-atmosphere interactions. Further LES-related research will likely grow significantly in areas related to societal impact studies of air quality and extreme weather events, applications to renewable energy forecasting and resource assessment, and aid in decision-making processes. The growth in the use of LES in atmospheric science research will drive the need for better physical process representations (e.g., cloud aerosol microphysics, radiation, and atmospheric chemistry) at the scales resolved by LES. To date, many of the process representations used by LES have been taken directly from coarser-resolution models. Promising methods for LES process representations include superdroplet and quadrature methods for microphysics, 3D approaches for radiation, and better representation of chemistry and aerosol processes. At LES resolution, land-atmosphere interactions for complex terrains, land cover/types, biogeochemistry, and plant canopy models are needed as an improvement beyond traditional and widely used Monin-Obuhkov similarity theory.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2004

Neutral Middle Atmospheric Influences by the Extremely Large October 2003 Solar Proton

The huge coronal mass ejection (CME) on October 28, 2003 caused an extremely large solar proton event (SPE) 3t the Earth, which impacted the middle atmospheric polar cap regions. The highly energetic protons produce ionizations, excitations, dissociations, and dissociative ionizations of the background constituents, which lead to the production of HO(x) (H, OH, HO2) and NO(y) (N, NO, NO2, NO3, N2O5, HNO3, HO2NO2, ClONO2, BrONO2). The total production of middle atmospheric NO(y) molecules by individual SPEs can be used to compare their sizes. Using this scale, the extremely large October 2003 SPE was the fourth largest in the past 40 years and the second largest of solar cycle 23. Only the October 1989, August 1972, and July 2000 SPEs were larger. The Goddard Space Flight Center (CSFC) Two-dimensional (2D)) Model was used in computing the influence of this gigantic SPE The NO(y) amount was increased by over two orders of Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) measurements as a result of this noteworthy SPE. The model also calculated polar middle mesosphere ozone decreases of over 70% during the SPE. Other atmospheric impacts from both model predictions and measurements as a result of this major SPE will be discussed in this paper.

Jackman, C. H.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Department of Energy’s Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Program’s Workshop on the Future of Atmospheric Large Eddy Simulation (LES) (Workshop Report)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2020

Large-Scale Influences on Atmospheric River Induced Extreme Precipitation Events Along the Coast of Washington State

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are responsible for much of the precipitation along the west coast of the United States. In order to accurately predict AR events in numerical weather prediction, subseasonal and seasonal timescales, it is important to understand the large-scale meteorological influence on extreme AR events.Here, characteristics of ARs that result in an extreme precipitation event are compared to typical ARs on the coast of WashingtonState. In addition to more intense water vapor transport, notable differences in the synoptic forcing are present during extreme precipitation events that are not present during typical AR events.In particular, a negatively tilted low pressure system is positioned to the west in the Gulf of Alaska, alongside an upper level jet streak. Subseasonal and seasonal teleconnection patterns are known to influence the weather in the Pacific Northwest. The Madden JulianOscillation (MJO) is shown to be particularly important in determining the strength of precipitation associated with in AR ont he Washington coast.

Collow, Allison↗

DOE OSTI2021

The PetscSF Scalable Communication Layer

PetscSF, the communication component of the Portable, Extensible Toolkit for Scientific Computation (PETSc), is designed to provide PETSc's communication infrastructure suitable for exascale computers that utilize GPUs and other accelerators. PetscSF provides a simple application programming interface (API) for managing common communication patterns in scientific computations by using a star-forest graph representation. PetscSF supports several implementations based on MPI and NVSHMEM, whose selection is based on the characteristics of the application or the target architecture. An efficient and portable model for network and intra-node communication is essential for implementing large-scale applications. The Message Passing Interface, which has been the de facto standard for distributed memory systems, has developed into a large complex API that does not yet provide high performance on the emerging heterogeneous CPU-GPU-based exascale systems. Here, we discuss the design of PetscSF, how it can overcome some difficulties of working directly with MPI on GPUs, and we demonstrate its performance, scalability, and novel features.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1984

Spectrophotometry of extreme helium stars - Ultraviolet fluxes and effective temperatures

Ultraviolet flux distributions are presented for the extremely helium rich stars BD +10 deg 2179, HD 124448, LSS 3378, BD -9 deg 4395, LSE 78, HD 160641, LSIV -1 deg 2, BD 1 deg 3438, HD 168476, MV Sgr, LS IV-14 deg 109 (CD -35 deg 11760), LSII +33 deg 5 and BD +1 deg 4381 (LSIV +2 deg 13) obtained with the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE). Broadband photometry and a newly computed grid of line blanketed model atmospheres were used to determine accurate angular diameters and total stellar fluxes. The resultant effective temperatures are in most cases in satisfactory agreement with those based on broadband photometry and/or high resolution spectroscopy in the visible. For two objects, LSII +33 deg 5 and LSE 78, disagreement was found between the IUE observations and broadband photometry: the colors predict temperatures around 20,000 K, whereas the UV spectra indicate much lower photospheric temperatures of 14,000 to 15,000 K. The new temperature scale for extreme helium stars extends to lower effective temperatures than that of Heber and Schoenberner (1981) and covers the range from 8,500 K to 32,000 K. Previously announced in STAR as N83-24433

Heber, U.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Spectral photometry of extreme helium stars: Ultraviolet fluxes and effective temperature

Ultraviolet flux distributions are presented for the extremely helium rich stars BD +10 deg 2179, HD 124448, LSS 3378, BD -9 deg 4395, LSE 78, HD 160641, LSIV -1 deg 2, BD 1 deg 3438, HD 168476, MV Sgr, LS IV-14 deg 109 (CD -35 deg 11760), LSII +33 deg 5 and BD +1 deg 4381 (LSIV +2 deg 13) obtained with the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE). Broad band photometry and a newly computed grid of line blanketed model atmospheres were used to determine accurate angular diameters and total stellar fluxes. The resultant effective temperatures are in most cases in satisfactory agreement with those based on broad band photometry and/or high resolution spectroscopy in the visible. For two objects, LSII +33 deg 5 and LSE 78, disagreement was found between the IUE observations and broadband photometry: the colors predict temperatures around 20,000 K, whereas the UV spectra indicate much lower photospheric temperatures of 14,000 to 15,000 K. The new temperature scale for extreme helium stars extends to lower effective temperatures than that of Heber and Schoenberner (1981) and covers the range from 8,500 K to 32,000 K.

Drilling, J. S.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multiscale Porous High-temperature Heat Exchanger Using Ceramic Co-extrusion

In this project, our MIT, Purdue, and GE team aims to design, model, fabricate, and test a novel high temperature, compact, and durable ceramic heat exchanger to be operated under high temperature and pressure conditions for aerospace applications. Our approach is grounded in introducing multiscale porosity, i.e., centimeter-scale channels embedded with micrometer-scale channels, into the ceramic heat exchanger to significantly improve its heat transfer performance and mechanical strength while maintaining minimal pressure losses. We first developed high-fidelity thermal-fluid-mechanical model capable of precisely capturing the heat transfer rate, temperature profile, pressure drop, and mechanical stress throughout the entire heat exchanger design. Guided by our model, we identified the optimal design parameters for the SiC heat exchanger body and manifolds. Then, we established a completed fabrication procedure to create multiscale features in the ceramic heat exchanger, including co-extrusion, lamination, burnout, and sintering. We fabricated multiple heat exchanger bodies consisting of 6 × 6 and 3 × 3 centimeter-scale channels where each individual centimeter-scale channel comprises 625 crack-free microchannels with 90 μm × 90 μm opening. Owing to the multiscale features, our fabricated heat exchanger bodies exhibited desirable mechanical strength with 156 MPa flexural strength under 1300 Celsius degree. Despite the demonstrated highly tailorable microscopic features and superior mechanical strength, we identified delamination due to the complex interaction among ceramic, polymer, and gas species can be a critical challenge to create fully defect-free heat exchanger, which requires further fundamental investigations in future works. To test the heat exchanger performance, we constructed a high-temperature and high-pressure experimental apparatus that can be safely operated under 400 Celsius degree and 4 bar. With insights gained from mechanistic modeling, material development, and detailed characterization, a cost model was finally developed to understand the market potential of the developed technology, where a cost of $43,000 Celsius degree/kW was envisioned. This project developed a transformative approach to high-performance heat exchanger design. The thermal-fluid-mechanical design approach developed in this project can serve as a generic tool to guide the design of various heat-exchangers operated under high-temperature and high-pressure conditions. The material fabrication approach established in this project can be a useful guide for ceramic processing at extreme length scales.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of DED and LPBF Fe-based Alloys Process Application Envelopes based on Performance, Process Economics, Supply Chain Risks, and Reactor-specific Targeted Components

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program aims to develop extreme-environment materials solutions for use in the deployment of advanced nuclear reactors and the sustainment of the current fleet. To achieve this objective, a combination of experiment, a computational tool, and machine learning (ML) for the design of materials is adopted for the maturation of materials for nuclear technology. Through advanced manufacturing techniques such as laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) and laser powder direct energy deposition (LP-DED), components with complex geometries can be fabricated with reduced time and effort. Such advanced manufacturing methods can also provide the opportunity to improve materials performance through optimized microstructures and mechanical properties. However, existing engineering alloys are not always well suited for fabrication with additive manufacturing (AM), as their compositions have been tuned to optimize fabrication via conventional methods. Thus, similar alloys with modified compositions that are better suited for AM can be studied for improved performance. Over the past three years, the AMMT teams from Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) studied various known Fe-based alloys by evaluating their initial printability using LPBF, and an AMMT-developed down-selection and decision matrix reduced the number of alloys to be studied from six to three in fiscal year (FY) 2024. Additionally, in FY 2024, for parallel evaluation, these three alloys were studied using LPDED. While LPBF is better for small- to medium-sized components with high detail and internal features, LP-DED combines a material feed system to place the powder onto the exact spot where the laser will melt the material. This AM method can be easily scaled to extremely large components and provides high build rate speeds compared to those of conventional LPBF systems. Additionally, DED is a better choice for complex geometries and compositional gradients.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multi-scale structural analysis of swift heavy ion-irradiated ZrO 2 and HfO 2

The radiation-induced monoclinic-to-tetragonal phase transition in ZrO 2 and HfO 2 has been the subject of many investigations, but the transformation pathways and underlying structural mechanisms are still not well understood. In this study, microcrystalline powder samples of ZrO 2 and HfO 2 were irradiated with 946 MeV and 1470 MeV Au ions to a wide fluence range up to 3 × 10 13 ions/cm 2 . To characterize beam-induced structural modifications across all spatial length scales, complementary experimental techniques such as synchrotron X-ray diffraction and spallation neutron total scattering were used. The phase evolution of the tetragonal polymorph with increasing ion fluence is accurately described by a heterogeneous track-overlap model that incorporates both direct- and double-impact processes. These damage accumulation processes are an expression of a core-shell ion track morphology that depends on irradiation conditions and target material. Neutron pair distribution function analysis revealed that ion-beam-induced tetragonal ZrO 2 is merely a configurational average of short-range orthorhombic (Pbcn) domains stabilized by a dense network of domain walls. Furthermore, this knowledge is critical for a better understanding of how crystalline-to-crystalline phase transformations proceed at the atomic scale under extreme conditions.

Monoclinic-to-tetragonal phase transformation↗