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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Structural evolution of liquid silicates under conditions in Super-Earth interiors

Molten silicates at depth are crucial for planetary evolution, yet their local structure and physical properties under extreme conditions remain elusive due to experimental challenges. In this study, we utilize in situ X-ray diffraction (XRD) at the Matter in Extreme Conditions (MEC) end-station of the Linear Coherent Linac Source (LCLS) at SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory to investigate liquid silicates. Using an ultrabright X-ray source and a high-power optical laser, we probed the local atomic arrangement of shock-compressed liquid (Mg,Fe)SiO 3 with varying Fe content, at pressures from 81(9) to 385(40) GPa. We compared these findings to ab initio molecular dynamics simulations under similar conditions. Results indicate continuous densification of theO-O and Mg-Si networks beyond Earth’s interior pressure range, potentially altering melt properties at extreme conditions. This could have significant implications for early planetary evolution, leading to notable differences in differentiation processes between smaller rocky planets, such as Earth and Venus, and super-Earths, which are exoplanets withmasses nearly three times that of Earth.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive understanding of the surface tension and velocity of sound in ionic liquids using machine learning

Knowledge of the physical properties of ionic liquids (ILs), such as the surface tension and speed of sound, is important for both industrial and research applications. Unfortunately, technical challenges and costs limit exhaustive experimental screening efforts of ILs for these critical properties. Previous work has demonstrated that the use of quantum-mechanics-based thermochemical property prediction tools, such as the conductor-like screening model for real solvents, when combined with machine learning (ML) approaches, may provide an alternative pathway to guide the rapid screening and design of ILs for desired physiochemical properties. However, the question of which machine-learning approaches are most appropriate remains. In the present study, we examine how different ML architectures, ranging from tree-based approaches to feed-forward artificial neural networks, perform in generating nonlinear multivariate quantitative structure–property relationship models for the prediction of the temperature- and pressure-dependent surface tension of and speed of sound in ILs over a wide range of surface tensions (16.9–76.2 mN/m) and speeds of sound (1009.7–1992 m/s). The ML models are further interrogated using the powerful interpretation method, shapley additive explanations. We find that several different ML models provide high accuracy, according to traditional statistical metrics. The decision tree-based approaches appear to be the most accurate and precise, with extreme gradient-boosting trees and gradient-boosting trees being the best performers. However, our results also indicate that the promise of using machine-learning to gain deep insights into the underlying physics driving structure–property relationships in ILs may still be somewhat premature.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Remarkable low-energy properties of the pseudogapped semimetal Be 5 Pt

We report measurements and calculations on the properties of the intermetallic compound Be 5 Pt. High-quality polycrystalline samples show a nearly constant temperature dependence of the electrical resistivity over a wide temperature range. On the other hand, relativistic electronic structure calculations indicate the existence of a narrow pseudogap in the density of states arising from accidental approximate Dirac cones extremely close to the Fermi level. A small true gap of order ~ 3 meV is present at the Fermi level, yet the measured resistivity is nearly constant from low to room temperature. We argue that this unexpected behavior can be understood by a cancellation of the energy dependence of density of states and relaxation time due to disorder, and discuss a model for electronic transport. With applied pressure, the resistivity becomes semiconducting, consistent with theoretical calculations that show that the band gap increases with applied pressure. We further discuss the role of Be inclusions in the samples.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate hazard indices projections based on CORDEX-CORE, CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble

The CORDEX-CORE initiative was developed with the aim of producing homogeneous regional climate model (RCM) projections over domains world wide. In its first phase, two RCMs were run at 0.22° resolution downscaling 3 global climate models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 program for 9 CORDEX domains and two climate scenarios, the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The CORDEX-CORE simulations along with the CMIP5 GCM ensemble and the most recently produced CMIP6 GCM ensemble are analyzed, with focus on several temperature, heat, wet and dry hazard indicators for present day and mid-century and far future time slices. The CORDEX-CORE ensemble shows a better performance than the driving GCMs for several hazard indices due to its higher spatial resolution. For the far future time slice the 3 ensembles project an increase in all temperature and heat indices analyzed under the RCP8.5 scenario. The largest increases are always shown by the CMIP6 ensemble, except for Tx > 35 °C, for which the CORDEX-CORE projects higher warming. Extreme wet and flood prone maxima are projected to increase by the RCM ensemble over the la Plata basin in South America, the Congo basin in Africa, east North America, north east Europe, India and Indochina, regions where a better performance is obtained, whereas the GCM ensembles show small or negligible signals. Furthermore, compound hazard hotspots based on heat, drought and wet indicators are detected in each continent worldwide in region like Central America, the Amazon, the Mediterranean, South Africa and Australia, where a linear relation is shown between the heatwave and drought change signal, and region like Arabian peninsula, the central and south east Africa region (SEAF), the north west America (NWN), south east Asia, India, China and central and northern European regions (WCE, NEU) where the same linear relation is found for extreme precipitation and HW increases. Although still limited, the CORDEX-CORE initiative was able to produce high resolution climate projections with almost global coverage and can provide an important resource for impact assessment and climate service activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Boundary characterization using 3D mapping of geometrically necessary dislocations in AM Ta microstructure

Additive manufacturing (AM) of high strength metallic materials produces microstructures and defects that deviate substantially from those created through conventional manufacturing methods. It has recently been demonstrated that with application of extreme energy densities, a high-temperature refractory metal, tantalum (Ta), can be printed to a fully dense state with exceptionally low porosity. Here we employ a combination of three-dimensional electron backscattered diffraction (EBSD) TriBeam technology and crystallographic geometrically necessary dislocation (GND) theory to characterize the microstructure and defect boundaries of this unusual AM product. Two-dimensional (2D) EBSD and these three-dimensional (3D) measurements indicate that the microstructure of AM Ta is highly oriented <111> along the build direction, yet at the same time contains large crystallographic orientation gradients that span mm’s across the build. Crystallographic GND density analysis of the 3D microstructure reveals that highly misoriented subboundaries exist within this strongly textured microstructure that have large dislocation densities of 1×10 16 m –2 , just as large as those comprising the high-angle grain boundaries (HAGBs) in the same material. The 3D crystallographic GND density mapping reveals these subboundaries are part of a complex, finely spaced network that extends throughout the entire microstructure. Here, the orientation of these boundaries can be related to the scan strategy used during printing. TEM measurements corroborate an extremely high dislocation density at the microscale and indicate a cell-like dislocation network structure existing in the AM Ta at the sub-μm scale.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Design and execution of a verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification plan for a numerical model of left ventricular flow after LVAD implantation

Left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) are implantable pumps that act as a life support therapy for patients with severe heart failure. Despite improving the survival rate, LVAD therapy can carry major complications. Particularly, the flow distortion introduced by the LVAD in the left ventricle (LV) may induce thrombus formation. While previous works have used numerical models to study the impact of multiple variables in the intra-LV stagnation regions, a comprehensive validation analysis has never been executed. The main goal of this work is to present a model of the LV-LVAD system and to design and follow a verification, validation and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) plan based on the ASME V&V40 and V&V20 standards to ensure credible predictions. The experiment used to validate the simulation is the SDSU cardiac simulator, a bench mock-up of the cardiovascular system that allows mimicking multiple operation conditions for the heart-LVAD system. The numerical model is based on Alya, the BSC’s in-house platform for numerical modelling. Alya solves the Navier-Stokes equation with an Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) formulation in a deformable ventricle and includes pressure-driven valves, a 0D Windkessel model for the arterial output and a LVAD boundary condition modeled through a dynamic pressure-flow performance curve. The designed VVUQ plan involves: (a) a risk analysis and the associated credibility goals; (b) a verification stage to ensure correctness in the numerical solution procedure; (c) a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact of the inputs on the four quantities of interest (QoIs) (average aortic root flow $Q^{avg}_{Ao}$, maximum aortic root flow $Q^{max}_{Ao}$, average LVAD flow $Q^{avg}_{VAD}$, and maximum LVAD flow $Q^{max}_{VAD}$; (d) an uncertainty quantification using six validation experiments that include extreme operating conditions. Numerical code verification tests ensured correctness of the solution procedure and numerical calculation verification showed a grid convergence index (GCI)95% <3.3%. The total Sobol indices obtained during the sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the ejection fraction, the heart rate, and the pump performance curve coefficients are the most impactful inputs for the analysed QoIs. The Minkowski norm is used as validation metric for the uncertainty quantification. It shows that the midpoint cases have more accurate results when compared to the extreme cases. The total computational cost of the simulations was above 100 [core-years] executed in around three weeks time span in Marenostrum IV supercomputer. This work details a novel numerical model for the LV-LVAD system, that is supported by the design and execution of a VVUQ plan created following recognised international standards. We present a methodology demonstrating that stringent VVUQ according to ASME standards is feasible but computationally expensive.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Resolving extreme jet substructure

We study the effectiveness of theoretically-motivated high-level jet observables in the extreme context of jets with a large number of hard sub-jets (up to N = 8). Previous studies indicate that high-level observables are powerful, interpretable tools to probe jet substructure for N ≤ 3 hard sub-jets, but that deep neural networks trained on low-level jet constituents match or slightly exceed their performance. We extend this work for up to N = 8 hard sub-jets, using deep particle-flow networks (PFNs) and Transformer based networks to estimate a loose upper bound on the classification performance. A fully-connected neural network operating on a standard set of high-level jet observables, 135 N-subjetiness observables and jet mass, reach classification accuracy of 86.90%, but fall short of the PFN and Transformer models, which reach classification accuracies of 89.19% and 91.27% respectively, suggesting that the constituent networks utilize information not captured by the set of high-level observables. We then identify additional high-level observables which are able to narrow this gap, and utilize LASSO regularization for feature selection to identify and rank the most relevant observables and provide further insights into the learning strategies used by the constituent-based neural networks. The final model contains only 31 high-level observables and is able to match the performance of the PFN and approximate the performance of the Transformer model to within 2%.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Microstructures and mechanical properties of a modified 9Cr ferritic-martensitic steel in the as-built condition after additive manufacturing

A newly developed nano-structured high-Mn 9Cr ferritic-martensitic (FM) steel designed for additive manufacturing (Additive-manufactured Nanostructured Alloy, ANA) was fabricated via the direct energy deposition method. The as-printed ANA2 showed tensile properties (strength and elongation) and Charpy impact toughness (upper-shelf energy and ductile-brittle transition temperature) comparable to oxide-dispersion-strengthened (ODS) Eurofer and PM2000. Compared with wrought P91, the as-built ANA2 showed significantly higher yield strength but inferior Charpy impact toughness and ductility. Microstructural characterization revealed uniformly distributed sub-micron pores, an extremely high dislocation density, and a high density of ultrafine nano-structured precipitates in the matrix. The microstructures indicated the dislocations as the dominant strengthening element and the ultrafine precipitates as the primary contribution to estimated irradiation sink density. This work demonstrates the ability to exploit the unique consolidation properties of additive manufacturing to fabricate steels which marry the benefits of both ODS alloys and conventionally processed FM steels.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing Simulations of Forest Hurricane Disturbance and Recovery in Puerto Rico by ELM-FATES Using Field Measurements

In the past three decades, Puerto Rico (PR) experienced five hurricanes that met or exceeded category three, and they caused severe forest structural damage and elevated tree mortality. To improve our mechanistic understanding of hurricane impacts on tropical forests and assess hurricane-affected forest dynamics in Earth system models, we use in situ forest measurements at the Bisley Experimental Watersheds in Northeast PR to evaluate the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator coupled with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model (ELM-FATES). The observations show that before Hurricane Hugo, 77.3% of the aboveground biomass (AGB) is from the shade-tolerant plant function type (PFT). The Hugo-induced mortality rates are over ~50%, and they induce a ~39% AGB reduction, which recovers to a level like the pre-Hugo condition in 2014, following a second, lower intensity hurricane, Georges. We perform numerical experiments that simulate damage from Hugo and Georges on the forests, including defoliation, sapwood and structural biomass damage, and hurricane-induced mortality. ELM-FATES can reasonably represent coexistence between the two PFTs–light-demanding and shade-tolerant–for both the pre-Hugo and post-Hugo conditions. The model represents a reasonable size distribution of mid-and large-sized trees although it underestimates AGB, likely due to the overestimated nonhurricane mortality. ELM-FATES temporarily stimulated leaf biomass and diameter increment after Georges, an effect that should be tested with observations of future hurricane defoliation events. This research indicates that addressing model-data mismatches in tree mortality and understory dynamics are essential to simulation of more extreme hurricane effects under climate change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydraulically‐vulnerable trees survive on deep‐water access during droughts in a tropical forest

Summary Deep‐water access is arguably the most effective, but under‐studied, mechanism that plants employ to survive during drought. Vulnerability to embolism and hydraulic safety margins can predict mortality risk at given levels of dehydration, but deep‐water access may delay plant dehydration. Here, we tested the role of deep‐water access in enabling survival within a diverse tropical forest community in Panama using a novel data‐model approach. We inversely estimated the effective rooting depth (ERD, as the average depth of water extraction), for 29 canopy species by linking diameter growth dynamics (1990–2015) to vapor pressure deficit, water potentials in the whole‐soil column, and leaf hydraulic vulnerability curves. We validated ERD estimates against existing isotopic data of potential water‐access depths. Across species, deeper ERD was associated with higher maximum stem hydraulic conductivity, greater vulnerability to xylem embolism, narrower safety margins, and lower mortality rates during extreme droughts over 35 years (1981–2015) among evergreen species. Species exposure to water stress declined with deeper ERD indicating that trees compensate for water stress‐related mortality risk through deep‐water access. The role of deep‐water access in mitigating mortality of hydraulically‐vulnerable trees has important implications for our predictive understanding of forest dynamics under current and future climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Phase Stability of Yttrium Titanium Oxide

This proposed study aims at elevating Idaho National Laboratory (INL)’s portfolio in nuclear material research on two major fronts: 1) expanding INL’s material characterization capabilities to provide holistic microstructural and microchemical characterization ranging from atomic scale to millimeter scale, and 2) filling the knowledge gap on the effect of microstructural evolution on material phase stability at extreme conditions resembling those inside nuclear reactors, using Yttrium-Titanium-Oxide (YTO) as a model material. Previous research indicated the kinetics of phase transition of YTO materials varies between bulk samples and powder samples, suggesting that microstructural characteristics such as defect, micro-strain, and crystallite size could play a significant role in phase transition. The effect of crystallite size on the thermodynamics of phase transition has been well documented for other ceramic materials at nanometer crystallite size, with potential impacts from surface and strain energy and defects. In this proposed study, we will perform microstructural (micro-strain, crystallite size, defects, phase) and microchemical (elemental mapping) analyses through in-situ high temperature measurements using X-ray diffraction (XRD; at millimeter scale for powder and bulk samples) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM, at nanometer scale and atomic scale for powder and thin foil samples), to provide a comprehensive view of the effect of microstructural and microchemical evolution on phase transition and phase stability of YTO materials. These findings will also establish a roadmap and provide new insights on the phase stability of other materials that are critical to nuclear energy and other renewable energy infrastructure. Besides advancing our understanding of this fundamental material science question, this project will also enable the development of state-of-the-art material characterization capabilities at INL/MFC for microstructural and microchemical analysis at high temperature conditions. The new collaboration between the High-Resolution Materials Characterization group at INL and the Electron Microscopy group at the University of Florida (UF) in this project will open the possibilities for more fruitful and synergetic cutting-edge nuclear material research in the future.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Resilience Evaluation and Enhancement for Island City Integrated Energy Systems

Extreme natural hazards, such as hurricanes or earthquakes, have a high probability of threatening energy supply security and causing high-order contingencies to island city-integrated energy systems (IC-IESs). To better evaluate and enhance resilience, a novel approach is proposed in this work for IC-IESs. The resilience of an IC-IES is analyzed from both the system level and the component level. At the system level, the impacts of extreme natural disasters are quantified. At the component level, the importance of individual components is analyzed through pre-failure and post-failure indices. The pre-failure index identifies the system’s weak links before an energy interruption, and the post-failure index determines the optimal repair strategy to restore the service. The proposed indices are solved by the impact increment method (IIM), which significantly improves computational efficiency without much affecting result accuracy. Numerical simulation studies are conducted on the modified Barry Island IES and IES E123-G48-H32 test systems. Furthermore, the results validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Determination of Sodium Abundance Ratio from Low-resolution Stellar Spectra and Its Applications

We present a method to determine sodium abundance ratios ([Na/Fe]) using the Na i D doublet lines in low-resolution (R ~ 2000) stellar spectra. As stellar Na i D lines are blended with those produced by the interstellar medium, we developed a technique for removing the interstellar Na I D lines using the relationship between extinction, which is proportional to E(B – V), and the equivalent width of the interstellar Na i D absorption lines. When measuring [Na/Fe], we also considered corrections for nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) effects. Comparisons with data from high-resolution spectroscopic surveys suggest that the expected precision of [Na/Fe] from low-resolution spectra is better than 0.3 dex for stars with [Fe/H] > –3.0. We also present a simple application employing the estimated [Na/Fe] values for a large number of stellar spectra from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). After classifying the SDSS stars into Na-normal, Na-high, and Na-extreme, we explore their relation to stars in Galactic globular clusters (GCs). We find that while the Na-high SDSS stars exhibit a similar metallicity distribution function (MDF) to that of the GCs, indicating that the majority of such stars may have originated from GC debris, the MDF of the Na-normal SDSS stars follows that of typical disk and halo stars. As there is a high fraction of carbon-enhanced metal-poor stars among the Na-extreme stars, they may have a non-GC origin, perhaps due to mass-transfer events from evolved binary companions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Unusual electrical and magnetic properties in layered EuZn 2 As 2

Eu-based compounds often exhibit unusual magnetism, which is critical for nontrivial topological properties seen in materials such as EuCd 2 As 2 . The authors investigate the structure and physical properties of EuZn 2 As 2 through measurements of the electrical resistivity, Hall effect, magnetization, and neutron diffraction. Their data show that EuZn 2 As 2 orders antiferromagnetically with an A-type spin configuration below T N = 19 K. Surprisingly, there is strong evidence for dominant ferromagnetic fluctuations above T N , as reflected by positive Curie–Weiss temperature and extremely large negative magnetoresistance (MR) between T N and T fl ≈200 K. Furthermore, the angle dependence of the MRab indicates field-induced spin reorientation from the ab-plane to a direction ≈45° from the ab plane. Compared to EuCd 2 As 2 , the doubled T N and T fl make EuZn 2 As 2 a better platform for exploring nontrivial magnetic and electronic properties in both magnetic fluctuation (T N < T < T fl ) and ordered (T < T N ) regimes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

First-Principles Insights into the Thermocatalytic Cracking of Ammonia-Hydrogen Blends on Fe(110): 1. Thermodynamics

Ammonia (NH 3 ) is being considered as a practical means to transport hydrogen (H 2 ) because of its higher volumetric energy density for the same temperature and pressure. Thermodynamics suggest high temperature is needed to decompose NH 3 to nitrogen (N 2 ) and H 2 . Furthermore, overcoming decomposition kinetic barriers requires a catalyst. Via density functional theory, we study this reaction on a model catalyst: the close-packed (110) facet of α-Fe. Specifically, we predict detailed in-operando temperature- and pressure-dependent surface phase diagrams on this benchmark catalyst that offer insights for the design of optimal NH 3 decomposition catalysts. Here, we explore the equilibrium composition(s) of the Fe(110) surface when exposed to NH 3 –H 2 mixtures. Further, we predict that both N and NH partially cover the Fe(110) surface at 300–400 °C (far above the NH 3 decomposition-formation coexistence temperature at standard partial pressures of 1 bar: ~ 180 °C) and 2–4 bar of total reactor pressure. At the equilibrium N/NH coverage, these species inhibit coadsorption of H, indicating that direct H 2 production may occur. However, from thermodynamics alone, removal of N/NH as N 2 (g) is extremely unfavorable even at these elevated temperatures–effectively deactivating the surface toward further NH 3 decomposition. Thus, catalysts that remain active toward N–H bond breaking but with weakened N binding relative to Fe are needed to enable high-turnover catalytic NH 3 decomposition to release H 2 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

The global Sahel monsoon ocean-pressure index reconciles its regional and large-scale features

Monitoring Sahelian rainfall variability is increasingly critical as climate extremes intensify across the region. Here, we develop the Sahelian Monsoon Ocean-Pressure Index (SMOPI), a novel global synthetic indicator constructed from five dynamically coherent sea-level pressure regions statistically linked to June-September Sahel monsoon rainfall. SMOPI captures intra-seasonal and interannual variability, and crucially, reflects the influence of both regional processes and large-scale teleconnections on monsoon dynamics. It aligns with the dominant rainfall variability mode in reanalyses and 29 CMIP6 models. Strong/positive SMOPI phases coincide with wet years and are associated with enhanced convergence, favorable jet configurations, and robust Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean teleconnections. Conversely, weak/negative SMOPI phases correspond to drought conditions and divergent moisture fluxes. SMOPI exposes model failures in reproducing historical droughts and offers new physical insights into rainfall-driving mechanisms. It stands out as a scalable, potentially transferable diagnostic tool for monitoring/forecasting and evaluating Sahelian monsoon rainfall under global warming.

Tamoffo, Alain T. [Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon GmbH, ↗
DOE OSTI2020

A dynamic microbial sulfur cycle in a serpentinizing continental ophiolite

Summary Serpentinization is the hydration and oxidation of ultramafic rock, which occurs as oceanic lithosphere is emplaced onto continental margins (ophiolites), and along the seafloor as faulting exposes this mantle‐derived material to circulating hydrothermal fluids. This process leads to distinctive fluid chemistries as molecular hydrogen (H 2 ) and hydroxyl ions (OH − ) are produced and reduced carbon compounds are mobilized. Serpentinizing ophiolites also serve as a vector to transport sulfur compounds from the seafloor onto the continents. We investigated hyperalkaline, sulfur‐rich, brackish groundwater in a serpentinizing continental ophiolite to elucidate the role of sulfur compounds in fuelling in situ microbial activities. Here we illustrate that key sulfur‐cycling taxa, including Dethiobacter , Desulfitispora and ‘ Desulforudis ’, persist throughout this extreme environment. Biologically catalysed redox reactions involving sulfate, sulfide and intermediate sulfur compounds are thermodynamically favourable in the groundwater, which indicates they may be vital to sustaining life in these characteristically oxidant‐ and energy‐limited systems. Furthermore, metagenomic and metatranscriptomic analyses reveal a complex network involving sulfate reduction, sulfide oxidation and thiosulfate reactions. Our findings highlight the importance of the complete inorganic sulfur cycle in serpentinizing fluids and suggest sulfur biogeochemistry provides a key link between terrestrial serpentinizing ecosystems and their submarine heritage.

Sabuda, Mary C.↗
DOE OSTI2023

How Today's Hydropower Impacts Tomorrow's Grid: Counterfactual Scenarios Showing Grid Impacts if Hydropower Goes Away

Amidst ongoing discussions about hydropower removals, retirements, and reduced availability due to drought and other environmental considerations, it is important to understand the long-term effects of reduced hydropower resources on the U.S. electric grid. This analysis uses the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS™) grid planning model to compare several representative scenarios of retiring hydropower and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) capacity over time and explore the overall implications on the U.S. grid from present day through 2050. Reduced hydropower capacity and generation is replaced by a mix of both fossil and non-fossil resources, including natural gas, wind, solar, and battery technologies. Additional natural gas usage leads to an increase in cumulative national electric sector carbon dioxide and criteria pollutant operating emissions of less than 1% in many scenarios but up to 4-5.3% in some cases. Total electric sector costs also increase by <1% in many scenarios but up to 3.6% in the most extreme scenarios where nearly all the hydropower and PSH fleet retires, equating to $\$$340 billion in undiscounted costs. National results indicate that absent additional interventions, retiring hydropower and PSH capacity could increase electric sector emissions and direct capital and operating costs. However, more focused analysis is required to evaluate specific asset-level, local, and regional implications, and a broader scope is necessary to weigh these electric sector impacts alongside economic, ecological, water management, and other cross-sectoral effects that could be either negative or positive.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗