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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life

Agent-based models (ABMs) in transportation modeling simulate activity and travel decisions at the disaggregate level of households and individuals. To do this, ABMs require detailed and realistic information on agents’ socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Various synthetic population generators have been proposed to address this need. However, most of those currently in practice are cross-sectional in nature and do not account for the dynamics within households and individuals as they progress through life events over time. This is a major shortcoming, as literature has shown that transportation decisions are affected by the transition between and co-occurrence of life cycle events. While some demographic evolution simulators have been proposed to address this issue, they are developed using cross-sectional data and capture only a small set of life cycle events and their interdependence. Addressing these drawbacks, we propose a demographic microsimulator (DEMOS) that captures the “continuum of life” by considering a range of household- and individual-level life cycle events. DEMOS is developed using the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, one of the world’s longest-running longitudinal surveys. The DEMOS submodels consider key life cycle events that are influenced by agents’ demographic variables. DEMOS is applied to evolve the population of the San Francisco Bay Area over a 9-year horizon. Results demonstrate how DEMOS generates life trajectories and how DEMOS outputs match the observed demographic trends. DEMOS is expected to enable longitudinal analysis in the context of ABMs and expand ABMs analyses relating to dynamic processes such as household-level vehicle transactions.

Demographic evolution↗
DOE OSTI2026

Alternating salt and freshwater floods of coastal soils impact soil structure, hydraulic properties, and oxygen dynamics

Coastal soils are increasingly impacted by hydrologic intensification in the form of rising sea level and flooding from storm surges and precipitation. Alternating saltwater (SW) and freshwater (FW) exposure has the potential to disperse colloids, which can lead to disintegration of soil structure, clogging of pore spaces, and reduction in ecologically and biogeochemically important functions like infiltration or gas exchange. To investigate how hydrologic intensification affects soil structure and oxygen dynamics, we conducted a series of laboratory-based flood simulations. Intact soil cores of the A and B horizons (22 total) from the toe slope of an upland coastal forest along the western shore of Chesapeake Bay. We subjected the cores to 24 h of saturation with either FW or alternating brackish SW and FW, with a 24-h draining event in between flood events. Oxygen diffusion into soil during draining was reduced by up to 30% for soils flooded alternating SW-FW compared to soils flooded only with FW. We attributed the reduced oxygen diffusion to clogging of smaller pores by colloids, with colloid redistribution observed as an increase in specific surface area down the core profile of up to 59%. After three SW-FW floods (six floods total), there were significant changes in pore size distribution, significant redistribution of colloids, and the A horizon became sodic. We concluded that a small number of SW flooding events can induce a measurable change in soil physical properties that directly impacts the biogeochemical dynamics.

Rod, Kenton A. [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2022

Combining Simulation and Optimization to Derive Operating Policies for a Concentrating Solar Power Plant

Optimizing short-term decisions over a rolling horizon and/or using deterministic penalties to capture system stochasticity can lead to myopic policies that fail to consider unplanned events and their long-term adverse effects. We present a methodology that integrates an off-line optimization model with a simulation procedure to determine the profitability of different operating strategies; specifically, the latter is used to generate additional constraints for the former when failures occur according to system component operating lifetimes that (i) are subject to exogenous uncertainty, and (ii) may degrade more quickly under specific operating conditions. We use the feedback provided by the simulation model in a parametric analysis to obtain penalties that can be used in short-term operations scheduling to maximize the long-term revenues obtained by the optimization model. We apply this research to a concentrating solar power plant; our results show that the methodology can be used to choose an operating policy that balances maximizing profit while accounting for maintenance costs. Integrating the optimization model with a simulation procedure reveals that aggressive prices for cycling yield about 55% fewer startups and 30% fewer failures compared to using a more typical start-up operating strategy, and can save hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars in repair costs over the lifetime of the plant.

concentrating solar power↗
DOE OSTI2023

Recursive Blind Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation and Consumer Load for Microgrids

Existing forecasting frameworks that predict time-series photovoltaic (PV) generation and consumer load for micro-grids' operation and control assume near-continuous availability of real-time predictors from the field. The incoming data are used to periodically re-train the models and update forecast snapshots over a moving horizon window. However, such frameworks are not resilient to disruptions in data availability caused by losses in communications between the field sensors and data loggers. This paper bridges the shortcoming by leveraging a previously proposed forecasting framework that is resilient to abrupt changes in data quality caused by communication losses. Assuming no availability of real-time field system data, which is typical in extreme weather events such as hurricanes, the framework uses lightweight recursive time-series models to independently forecast solar irradiance, ambient temperature, PV power, and consumer load for three horizon windows: 24 hours, 12 hours, and 1 hour. Four types of ensemble-based regression trees-simple gradient boosted trees (GBR), GBR with an adaptive component (A-GBR), random forests (RF), and extra trees (ExTR)-are leveraged and their performances are compared against a simple historical weekly mean. Numerical results show that A-GBR performs better on average by 32% for 24-hour horizon and 39% for 12-hour horizon, whereas ExTR outdoes the other models on average by 10% for 1-hour horizon.

Sundararajan, Aditya↗
NASA NTRS1992

Asteroids and Archaean crustal evolution: Tests of possible genetic links between major mantle/crust melting events and clustered extraterrestrial bombardments

Since the oldest intact terrestrial rocks of ca. 4.0 Ga and oldest zircon xenocrysts of ca. 4.3 Ga measured to date overlap with the lunar late heavy bombardment, the early Precambrian record requires close reexamination vis a vis the effects of megaimpacts. The identification of microtektite-bearing horizons containing spinals of chondritic chemistry and Ir anomalies in 3.5-3.4-Ga greenstone belts provides the first direct evidence for large-scale Archaean impacts. The Archaean crustal record contains evidence for several major greenstone-granite-forming episodes where deep upwelling and adiabatic fusion of the mantle was accompanied by contemporaneous crustal anatexis. Isotopic age studies suggest evidence for principal age clusters about 3.5, 3.0, and 2.7 (+/- 0.8) Ga, relics of a ca. 3.8-Ga event, and several less well defined episodes. These peak events were accompanied and followed by protracted thermal fluctuations in intracrustal high-grade metamorphic zones. Interpretations of these events in terms of internal dynamics of the Earth are difficult to reconcile with the thermal behavior of silicate rheologies in a continuously convecting mantle regime. A triggering of these episodes by mantle rebound response to intermittent extraterrestrial asteroid impacts is supported by (1) identification of major Archaean impacts from microtektite and distal ejecta horizons marked by Ir anomalies; (2) geochemical and experimental evidence for mantle upwelling, possibly from levels as deep as the transition zone; and (3) catastrophic adiabatic melting required to generate peridotitic komatites. Episodic differentiation/accretion growth of sial consequent on these events is capable of resolving the volume problem that arises from comparisons between modern continental crust and the estimated sial produced by continuous two-stage mantle melting processes. The volume problem is exacerbated by projected high accretion rates under Archaean geotherms. It is suggested that impact shock effects have been largely obscured by (1) outpouring of voluminous basic/ultrabasic lavas, inundating shock-deformed crust and extending beyond the perimeters of impact excavated basins; (2) gravity subsidence and downfaulting of terrestrial maria, accounting for the burial and anatexis of subgreenstone basement; and (3) extensive shearing and recrystallization at elevated temperatures of impact structure, breccias, and mineral deformation features beneath impact-excavated basins, relics of which may be retained in structural windows in high-grade metamorphic terranes.

Glikson, A. Y.↗
NASA NTRS2010

What Can Geolocated Sferics Tell Us About Terrestrial Gamma-Ray Flashes?

The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) has been detecting TGFs with increasing sensitivity over the past two years, owing to changes in flight software that have lowered its threshold for triggering and, recently, allowed a search for TGFs weaker than those which would cause an onboard trigger. Associations between TGFs detected in the first 18 months of operation and sferics detected using the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) show that TGF peaks and lightning discharges are simultaneous to within tens of microseconds, and that GBM triggered on TGFs that occurred up to a distance of 300 km from the sub-spacecraft position. In the work presented here, we look for associations between TGFs detected by the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) and WWLLN sferics over the same 18 months, and we compare the match rate and detection horizon of the two instruments. We also look for associations between WWLLN sferics and more recent GBM TGFs, both triggered events and weaker TGFs uncovered in our untriggered search. We discuss whether in this new mode, GBM is detecting TGFs that are more distant from the sub-spacecraft point than 300 km, or whether the weaker TGFs are instead indicative of a luminosity distribution, either because the weaker ones originate deeper in the atmosphere or because they are intrinsically dimmer.

Connaughton, V.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Neutrino Target-of-Opportunity Observations with Space-based and Suborbital Optical Cherenkov Detectors

Cosmic-ray accelerators capable of reaching ultra-high energies are expected to also produce very high energy neutrinos via hadronic interactions within the source or its surrounding environment. Many of the candidate astrophysical source classes are either transient in nature or exhibit flaring activity. Using the Earth as a neutrino converter, suborbital and space-based optical Cherenkov detectors, such as POEMMA and EUSO-SPB2, will be able to detect upward-moving extensive air showers induced by decaying tau-leptons generated from cosmic tau neutrinos with energies ∼ 10 PeV and above. Both EUSO-SPB2 and POEMMA will be able to quickly repoint, enabling rapid response to astrophysical transient events. We calculate the transient sensitivity and sky coverage for both EUSO-SPB2 and POEMMA, accounting for constraints imposed by the Sun and the Moon on the observation time. We also calculate both detectors’ neutrino horizons for a variety of modeled astrophysical neutrino fluences. We find that both EUSO-SPB2 and POEMMA will achieve transient sensitivities at the level of modeled neutrino fluences for nearby sources. We conclude with a discussion of the prospects of each mission detecting at least one transient event for various modeled astrophysical neutrino sources.

Tonia M Venters↗
NASA NTRS2005

Exploring the Feasibility of Electrostatic Shielding for Spacecrafts

NASA is moving forward towards the agency's new vision for space exploration in the 21st Century encompassing a broad range of human and robotic missions including missions to Moon, Mars and beyond. Exposure from the hazards of severe space radiation in deep space long duration missions is the show stopper. Langley has developed state-of-the-art radiation protection and shielding technology for space missions. The payload penalty demands a very stringent requirement on the design of the spacecrafts for human deep space missions. The exploration beyond low Earth orbit (LEO) to enable routine access to more interesting regions of space will require protection from the hazards of the accumulated exposures of space radiation, Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) and Solar Particle Events (SPE), and minimizing the production of secondary radiation is a great advantage. There is a need to look to new horizons for newer technologies. The present investigation explores the feasibility of using electrostatic shielding in concert with innovative materials shielding and protection technologies. The asymmetries of the radiation shielding problem would be exploited in the electrostatics shielding process. The goal is to repel enough positive charge ions so that they miss the spacecraft without attracting thermal electrons. Conclusions are drawn about the advantages the electrostatic shielding, should it be successful, would bring to the radiation protection design process.

Tripathi, R. K.↗
DOE OSTI2020

A 3-Year Sample of Almost 1,600 Elves Recorded Above South America by the Pierre Auger Cosmic-Ray Observatory

Elves are a class of transient luminous events, with a radial extent typically greater than 250 km, that occur in the lower ionosphere above strong electrical storms. We report the observation of 1,598 elves, from 2014 to 2016, recorded with unprecedented time resolution (100 ns) using the fluorescence detector (FD) of the Pierre Auger Cosmic-Ray Observatory. The Auger Observatory is located in the Mendoza province of Argentina with a viewing footprint for elve observations of 3∙10sup>6 km ₂, reaching areas above the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, as well as the Córdoba region, which is known for severe convective thunderstorms. Primarily designed for ultrahigh energy cosmic-ray observations, the Auger FD turns out to be very sensitive to the ultraviolet emission in elves. The detector features modified Schmidt optics with large apertures resulting in a field of view that spans the horizon, and year-round operation on dark nights with low moonlight background, when the local weather is favorable. The measured light profiles of 18% of the elve events have more than one peak, compatible with intracloud activity. Within the 3-year sample, 72% of the elves correlate with the far-field radiation measurements of the World Wide Lightning Location Network. The Auger Observatory plans to continue operations until at least 2025, including elve observations and analysis. To the best of our knowledge, this observatory is the only facility on Earth that measures elves with year-round operation and full horizon coverage.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2022

In Search of Short Gamma-ray Burst Optical Counterparts with the Zwicky Transient Facility

The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) triggers on-board in response to∼40 short gamma-ray bursts (SGRBs) per year; however, their large localization regions have made the search for optical counterparts a challenging endeavour. We have developed and executed an extensive program with the wide field of view of the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) camera, mounted on the Palomar 48 inch Oschin telescope (P48), to perform target-of-opportunity (ToO) observations on 10Fermi-GBM SGRBsduring 2018 and 2020-2021. Bridging the large sky areas with small field of view optical telescopesin order to track the evolution of potential candidates, we look for the elusive SGRB afterglows andkilonovae (KNe) associated with these high-energy events. No counterpart has yet been found, eventhough more than 10 ground based telescopes, part of the Global Relay of Observatories WatchingTransients Happen (GROWTH) network, have taken part in these efforts. The candidate selectionprocedure and the follow-up strategy have shown that ZTF is an efficient instrument for searchingfor poorly localized SGRBs, retrieving a reasonable number of candidates to follow-up and showingpromising capabilities as the community approaches the multi-messenger era. Based on the medianlimiting magnitude of ZTF, our searches would have been able to retrieve a GW170817-like event upto∼200 Mpc and SGRB afterglows to z = 0.16 or 0.4, depending on the assumed underlying energymodel. Future ToOs will expand the horizon to z = 0.2 and 0.7 respectively.

Tomas Ahumada↗
DOE OSTI2025

DEMOS (Demographic Microsimulator Tool for Longitudinal Synthetic Population) [SWR-25-135] related to NLR SWR-26-076

The Demographic Microsimulator (DEMOS) is an agent-based simulation framework used to model the evolution of population demographic characteristics and lifecycle events, such as education attainment, marital status, and other key transitions. DEMOS modules are designed to capture the interdependencies between short-term and long-term lifecycle events, which are often influential in downstream transportation and land-use modeling. A key feature of DEMOS is its ability to track changes in an agent’s demographic status from year t to year t + 1. This structure allows the model to evolve populations over any user-defined time horizon. As a result, DEMOS is well suited for analyzing medium- and long-term transportation-related decisions, including household vehicle transactions (e.g., purchasing, selling, or replacing vehicles) and work location choices. Core features of DEMOS include the modeling of more than ten lifecycle events, behaviorally realistic patterns informed by long-running panel data, explicit representation of interdependencies among lifecycle processes, and a flexible, modular simulation architecture. A technical memorandum describing DEMOS is available here. The memorandum provides an overview of the framework’s functionality, model structure, input and output data, and its applications in transportation planning and broader policy analysis contexts. Interested readers are also encouraged to consult the paper listed below for additional details on the DEMOS methodology. Sun, Bingrong, Shivam Sharda, Venu M. Garikapati, Mohamed Amine Bouzaghrane, Juan Caicedo, Srinath Ravulaparthy, Isabel Viegas de Lima, Ling Jin, C. Anna Spurlock, and Paul Waddell. "Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life." Transportation Research Record (2025): 03611981251333339.

Sun, Bingrong [National Laboratory of the Rockies ↗
NASA NTRS1991

Outline for a theory of intelligence

Intelligence is defined as that which produces successful behavior. Intelligence is assumed to result from natural selection. A model is proposed that integrates knowledge from research in both natural and artificial systems. The model consists of a hierarchical system architecture wherein: (1) control bandwidth decreases about an order of magnitude at each higher level, (2) perceptual resolution of spatial and temporal patterns contracts about an order-of-magnitude at each higher level, (3) goals expand in scope and planning horizons expand in space and time about an order-of-magnitude at each higher level, and (4) models of the world and memories of events expand their range in space and time by about an order-of-magnitude at each higher level. At each level, functional modules perform behavior generation (task decomposition planning and execution), world modeling, sensory processing, and value judgment. Sensory feedback control loops are closed at every level.

Albus, James S.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Distal Ejecta from Lunar Impacts: Extensive Regions of Rocky Deposits

Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Diviner Radiometer, Mini-RF, and LRO Camera data were used to identify and characterize rocky lunar deposits that appear well separated from any potential source crater. Two regions are described: 1) A approximate 18,000 sq km area with elevated rock abundance and extensive melt ponds and veneers near the antipode of Tycho crater (167.5 deg E, 42.5 deg N). This region has been identified previously, using radar and aging data. 2) A much larger and more diffuse region, covering approximately 730,000 sq km, centered near 310 deg E, 35 deg S, containing elevated rock abundance and numerous granular flow deposits on crater walls. The rock distributions in both regions favor certain slope azimuths over others, indicating a directional component to the formation of these deposits. The spatial distribution of rocks is consistent with the arrival of ejecta from the west and northwest at low angles (approximately 10-30 deg) above the horizon in both regions. The derived age and slope orientations of the deposits indicate that the deposits likely originated as ejecta from the Tycho impact event. Despite their similar origin, the deposits in the two regions show significant differences in the datasets. The Tycho crater antipode deposit covers a smaller area, but the deposits are pervasive and appear to be dominated by impact melts. By contrast, the nearside deposits cover a much larger area and numerous granular flows were triggered. However, the features in this region are less prominent with no evidence for the presence of impact melts. The two regions appear to be surface expressions of a distant impact event that can modify surfaces across wide regions, resulting in a variety of surface morphologies. The Tycho impact event may only be the most recent manifestation of these processes, which likely have played a role in the development of the regolith throughout lunar history

Bandfield, Joshua L.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spins of primordial black holes formed in different cosmological scenarios

Primordial black holes (PBHs) could account for all or part of dark matter, as well as for some LIGO events. We discuss the spins of primordial black holes produced in different cosmological scenarios, with the emphasis on recently discovered possibilities. PBHs produced as a horizon-size collapse of density perturbations are known to have very small spins. In contrast, PBHs resulting from assembly of matterlike objects (particles, Q-balls, oscillons, etc.) can have large or small spins depending on their formation history and the efficiency of radiative cooling. Here, we show that scalar radiation can remove the angular momentum very efficiently, leading to slowly rotating PBHs in those scenarios for which the radiative cooling is important. Gravitational waves astronomy offers an opportunity to determine the spins of black holes, opening a new window on the early Universe if, indeed, some black holes have primordial origin.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing Distribution Grid Resilience Through Model Predictive Controller Enabled Prioritized Load Restoration Strategy

Effective resilience improvement strategies enable the power grid to cope with disruptive extreme events. Most power grid outages are caused by disruptions in distribution grids. Motivated by the urgent need for power system resilience research, this paper proposes a priority-weighted optimal load restoration technique to enhance the resilience of distribution grids against extreme events. The proposed technique is based on smart distribution technology and framed as sequential multi-step decision process (MDP) and mixed integer linear program (MILP). It is formulated as optimal control problem with a model predictive control (MPC) approach. We applied the devised MILP-MPC-based load restoration technique to a simplified single-bus version of the IEEE 13-bus distribution system with integrated distributed energy resources (DERs) such as wind turbine, photovoitaic array, microturbine, and energy storage device. The technique executes a reducing and rolling horizon optimization in each control step in real-time using the forecasted information of the renewables, the fuel status of the microturbine and the state of charge of the energy storage device. We consider an extreme event which triggered outage of the upstream utility grid and caused islanded operation of the distribution grid. We demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed MPC approach in restoring the distribution grid loads based on their priority during the main grid outage-caused islanded operation.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing Distribution Grid Resilience Through Model Predictive Controller Enabled Prioritized Load Restoration Strategy: Preprint

Effective resilience improvement strategies enable the power grid to cope with disruptive extreme events. Most power grid outages are caused by disruptions in distribution grids. Motivated by the urgent need for power system resilience research, this paper proposes a priority-weighted optimal load restoration technique to enhance the resilience of distribution grids against extreme events. The proposed technique is based on smart distribution technology and framed as sequential multi-step decision process (MDP) and mixed integer linear program (MILP). It is formulated as optimal control problem with a model predictive control (MPC) approach. We applied the devised MILP-MPC-based load restoration technique to a simplified single-bus version of the IEEE 13-bus distribution system with integrated distributed energy resources (DERs) such as wind turbine, photovoltaic array, microturbine, and energy storage device. The technique executes a reducing and rolling horizon optimization in each control step in real-time using the forecasted information of the renewables, the fuel status of the microturbine and the state of charge of the energy storage device. We consider an extreme event which triggered outage of the upstream utility grid and caused islanded operation of the distribution grid. We demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed MPC approach in restoring the distribution grid loads based on their priority during the main grid outage-caused islanded operation.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing Distribution Grid Resilience Through Model Predictive Controller Enabled Prioritized Load Restoration Strategy

Effective resilience improvement strategies enable the power grid to cope with disruptive extreme events. Most power grid outages are caused by disruptions in distribution grids. Motivated by the urgent need for power system resilience research, this paper proposes a priority-weighted optimal load restoration technique to enhance the resilience of distribution grids against extreme events. The proposed technique is based on smart distribution technology and framed as sequential multi-step decision process (MDP) and mixed integer linear program (MILP). It is formulated as optimal control problem with a model predictive control (MPC) approach. We applied the devised MILP-MPC-based load restoration technique to a simplified single-bus version of the IEEE 13-bus distribution system with integrated distributed energy resources (DERs) such as wind turbine, photovoltaic array, microturbine, and energy storage device. The technique executes a reducing and rolling horizon optimization in each control step in real-time using the forecasted information of the renewables, the fuel status of the microturbine and the state of charge of the energy storage device. We consider an extreme event which triggered outage of the upstream utility grid and caused islanded operation of the distribution grid. We demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed MPC approach in restoring the distribution grid loads based on their priority during the main grid outage-caused islanded operation.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life

Agent-based models (ABMs) simulate activity and travel decisions at the disaggregate level of households, and individuals. To do this, ABMs require detailed information pertaining to socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of individuals. Various synthetic population generators (SPGs) have been proposed to address this need. However, most of the SPGs currently in practice are cross-sectional in nature, and do not account for the interrelationships among household's or individual's life progression. This is a major shortcoming of SPGs as literature has shown that transportation decisions are impacted by lifecycle events that unfold over a span of time. While some demographic evolution simulators have been proposed to address this shortcoming, they: i) are developed using cross-sectional data, ii) do not capture the full spectrum of lifecycle events and their interdependency. Overcoming these drawbacks, this paper proposes a Demographic Microsimulator (DEMOS) which captures the 'continuum of life' by accounting for a range of household-, and individual-level lifecycle events. DEMOS is developed using the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, which is one of the world's longest running longitudinal surveys. DEMOS sub-models consider key lifecycle events which are influenced by a host of demographic variables. The whole framework is applied to evolve the population of San Francisco Bay Area over a 9-year horizon. Results indicate that the household and individual evolution are tightly connected, and that the structural framework (i.e., model sequencing) is a key element in capturing the population trend accurately.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗