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DOE OSTI2024

The value of wake steering wind farm flow control in US energy markets

Abstract. Wind farm flow control represents a category of control strategies for achieving wind-plant-level objectives, such as increasing wind plant power production and/or reducing structural loads, by mitigating the impact of wake interactions between wind turbines. Wake steering is a wind farm flow control technology in which specific turbines are misaligned with the wind to deflect their wakes away from downstream turbines, thus increasing overall wind plant power production. In addition to promising results from simulation studies, wake steering has been shown to successfully increase energy production through several recent field trials. However, to better understand the benefits of wind farm flow control strategies such as wake steering, the value of the additional energy to the electrical grid should be evaluated – for example, by considering the price of electricity when the additional energy is produced. In this study, we investigate the potential for wake steering to increase the value of wind plant energy production by combining model predictions of power gains using the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) engineering wind farm flow control tool with historical electricity price data for 15 existing US wind plants in four different electricity market regions. Specifically, for each wind plant, we use FLORIS to estimate power gains from wake steering for a time series of hourly wind speeds and wind directions spanning the years 2018–2020, obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. The modeled power gains are then correlated with hourly electricity prices for the nearest transmission node. Through this process we find that wake steering increases annual energy production (AEP) between 0.4 % and 1.7 %, depending on the wind plant, with average increases in potential annual revenue (i.e., annual revenue of production, ARP) 4 % higher than the AEP gains. For most wind plants, ARP gain was found to exceed AEP gain. But the ratio between ARP gain and AEP gain is greater for wind plants in regions with high wind penetration because electricity prices tend to be relatively higher during periods with below-rated wind plant power production, when wake losses occur and wake steering is active; for wind plants in the Southwest Power Pool – the region with the highest wind penetration analyzed (31 %) – the increase in ARP from wake steering is 11 % higher than the AEP gain. Consequently, we expect the value of wake steering, and other types of wind farm flow control, to increase as wind penetration continues to grow.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Utility-Scale Solar, 2024 Edition: Empirical Trends in Deployment, Technology, Cost, Performance, PPA Pricing, and Value in the United States [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s “Utility-Scale Solar, 2024 Edition” presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC (PV plants of 5 MWAC or less, including residential rooftop systems, are covered separately in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Tracking the Sun). Key findings from this year’s report include: -18.5 GWAC of new utility-scale PV capacity came online in 2023, bringing cumulative installed capacity to more than 80.2 GWAC across 47 states. Installed costs continued to fall in 2023. Relative to 2022, capacity-weighted averages decreased by 8% to -$\$1.43$/WAC (or $\$1.08$/WDC). Costs, based on a 7.1 GWAC sample of 76 plants completed in 2023, have fallen by 75% (averaging 10% annually) since 2010. Plant-level capacity factors vary widely, from 6% to 36% (on an AC basis), with a sample median of 24%. -Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of new 2023 projects increased slightly to $\$46$/MWh prior to the application of tax credits but continued to fall to $\$31$/MWh when accounting for federal incentives. PPA prices have largely followed the decline in solar’s LCOE over time, but newly signed longer-term PPA prices have increased since 2021, to an average of $\$35$/MWh (levelized, in 2023 dollars). -Solar’s average energy and capacity value (i.e., ability to offset costs of other power generation sources) across the U.S. was $\$45$/MWh in 2023. Solar’s average market value was lowest in CAISO ($\$27$/MWh), the market with the greatest solar generation share, and highest in ERCOT ($\$67$/MWh). -Newer solar projects had greater market value in 2023 than their generation costs, yielding $\$1.1$ billion in benefits. Projects built in 2022 delivered on average $\$15$/MWh more market value than their costs in 2023. -Solar’s combined value from wholesale electricity markets, public health and climate damage reduction were greater than generation costs and incentives, yielding $\$13.7$ billion in net benefits in 2023. We estimate U.S. health benefits of $\$24$/MWh and reduced global climate damages of $\$101$/MWh. -Adding battery storage is one way to increase the value of solar. Deployment of 52 new PV+battery hybrid plants set a record with 5.3 GW installed in 2023. Our public data file tracks metadata and PPA prices from more than 100 PV+battery hybrid projects that are already online or that have secured offtake arrangements. -Looking ahead, a massive pipeline of at least 1,085 GW of solar capacity dominates the nation’s interconnection queues at the end of 2023. Nearly 571 GW, or 53%, of that total was paired with a battery – in CAISO it was a staggering 98%. Historically only 10% of the requested solar capacity is built. -For more information, and to explore related interactive data visualizations, go to utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Value of Nuclear Energy to the Reliability of the North American Power System: Results for Western and Eastern Interconnections

This report documents the fulfillment of a milestone for the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: completing a baseline study of regional impact of nuclear power plants and hydrogen production in maintaining grid services and power quality. Models have been comprehensively demonstrated for the Western Interconnection, or Western Electric Coordinating Council area, and in the Eastern Interconnection for scenarios representative of past extreme events (e.g., drought and heat waves). Understanding the impact on the reliability of the bulk electric system of any reduction in generation capacity from nuclear power, for any reason, is the motivation of this work. Factors that might lead to the premature or unplanned closure of nuclear plants, extended outages, or repurposing of nuclear power include: • Aging infrastructure: Many nuclear power plants in the U.S. are nearing the end of their designed operating lives. Upgrading aging infrastructure can be expensive, and some utilities may choose to retire plants rather than invest in costly upgrades. • Low wholesale electricity prices: The deregulation of the electricity market in many states has led to increased competition and driven down wholesale electricity prices, causing nuclear power operators to seek other revenue sources for their heat and power such as clean hydrogen production. • Renewables growth: The rapid growth of renewable energy sources like solar and wind power is posing a challenge to traditional generation sources like nuclear. While many see renewables as a key part of the clean energy transition, their intermittent nature requires additional grid solutions for reliable power supply. • The potential for regulatory decisions to be in conflict: In its 2021 rulemaking, EPA rule (86 FR 880), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) set a compliance date for the ban on processing and distribution in commerce of Decabromodiphenyl Ether (DecaBDE). Since DecaBDE is in many components, particularly wiring, of nuclear power plants which are deemed safety-related or important to safety, three plants would not have been able to restart after their 2023 spring outages, and numerous others would have faced issues in the near future. Fortunately, in this case, the EPA provided relief to the nuclear energy industry. The report provides a summary of the significant role nuclear energy plays in the United States’ power generation mix, supplying around 20% of the nation’s electricity generation, spread across 28 U.S. states. Nuclear power is reliable, mostly unaffected by weather and seasonal changes, and provides a consistent source of baseload power. In terms of capacity, nuclear power plants account for as much as 26% of balancing area power generation capacity. Nuclear power also provides a substantial contribution (e.g., 10% of the inertia in the Eastern Interconnection) of the synchronous spinning mass/inertia that buffers the rate at which frequency changes when a load and generation imbalance occurs (e.g., a large plant trips or a load is suddenly shed due to a transmission outage). This contribution is critical for maintaining grid stability during sudden changes in load or generation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Economics-by-Design Approach Applied to a Heat Pipe Microreactor Concept

Microreactors present a potential paradigm shift in the nuclear industry. Emphasis thus far has been on large-scale multi-billion-dollar projects that cater solely to grid electricity market. These projects can be challenging to finance and execute. On the other hand, microreactors are intended to target a wide variety of smaller niche markets and are expected to be factory-fabricated and more readily deployable. While diseconomies of scale for microreactors may tend to raise their costs per energy output (MWh) relative to large nuclear plants, offsetting gains can be expected from standardization, simplification, passive safety, lower radionuclide inventories, factory fabrication, fast installation, and low financing costs. To adequately assess these contributions, designers should have a different perspective on cost drivers than for large nuclear plants and can utilize novel approaches for systematic cost reduction. To account for these important aspects of microreactors, this report proposes an economics-by-design approach that places economic considerations at the center of the design process. The methodology builds on existing frameworks such as design-to-cost and value engineering, expanding them to new markets (beyond the grid), new attributes (beyond costs alone), and introducing the approach at earlier points in the design cycle. Design parameters and technical specifications are systematically evaluated until costs meet market entry points, while also providing the high-priority performance attributes of the particular use case. Determining first-order estimates for different components early in the process enables designers to focus R&D efforts on the biggest overall cost contributors and components with the most cost uncertainty. The analysis is always guided by market needs and threshold prices. In addition to microreactors, the approach is expected to be useful for other classes of nuclear reactors as well. The analysis was applied to a concept found in the open literature (the Design A heat-pipe reactor). A comprehensive bottom-up estimate was generated by leveraging a new microreactor-specific code of accounts and a range of cost equations. The initial estimate for levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) unsurprisingly exceeded market ranges since the use case had prioritized technological readiness over economic considerations in design choices. An alternate concept was then proposed, with various assumptions/targets made to reduce the largest cost contributors. Changes in the neutron spectrum, the power output, and building structures were found to make even the first-of-a-kind of this modified concept competitive with diesel generation in some remote communities. Learning rate (LR) assumptions indicated cost reductions achieved from sequential unit deployments could expand the range of competitiveness to include additional markets as deployments proceed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

RODeO (Revenue Operation and Device Optimization Model) [SWR 20-67]

The Revenue, Operation, and Device Optimization (RODeO) model explores optimal system design and operation considering different levels of grid integration, equipment cost, operating limitations, financing, and credits and incentives. RODeO is a price-taker model formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model in the GAMS modeling platform. The objective is to maximizes the net revenue for a collection of equipment at a given site. The equipment includes generators (e.g., gas turbine, steam turbine, solar, wind, hydro, fuel cells, etc.), storage systems (batteries, pumped hydro, gas-fired compressed air energy storage, long-duration systems, hydrogen), and flexible loads (e.g., electric vehicles, electrolyzers, flexible building loads). The input data required by RODeO can be classified into three bins: 1) utility service data, which refers to retail utility rate information (meter cost, energy and demand charges), 2) electricity market data, which include energy and reserve prices, 3) other inputs, which refer to additional electrical demand, product output demand, technological assumptions, financial properties, and operational parameters.

Guerra Fernandez, Omar Jose↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimized V1G and V2G Electric Vehicle Fleet Management and Grid Transaction at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in San Diego, CA

The overall technical goal of the project was to demonstrate an all-electric bi-directional non-tactical fleet at Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Miramar that was integrated and controlled with other distributed energy resources (DERs) (i.e., PV, stationary battery, and building loads) to provide resilience to critical electric loads in the event of grid outages, to minimize charging costs, and to provide economic energy resources to electricity markets. In this project, the specific, technical objectives were: 1. Demonstrate that bi-directional electric vehicles can provide critical complementary services to fixed storage batteries in microgrid applications while performing function as non-tactical vehicles. 2. Demonstrate participation of bi-directional (V2G) and unidirectional (V1G) PEVs for demand management and minimization of charging costs. 3. Demonstrate integration of multiple DERs for grid service participation. US Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Miramar in San Diego was the site of this electric vehicle-to-microgrid-utility grid test and demonstration project. Existing microgrid assets in this study included (1) a public works building; (2) a 30-kW rooftop photovoltaic (PV) system and (3) a separate 250 kW carport PV system. In this project, six bi-directional V2G vans were located at the MCAS Miramar’s showcase building-scale microgrid to develop and test technical capabilities that V2G can provide in microgrid applications (e.g., cost reduction and resiliency). These resources provided aggregated demand management and simulated participation in current retail DR programs. The vehicles used in this demonstration were selected because they provided functionality that MCAS Miramar needed, 15 passenger transport and facilities work cargo carrying capacity, and bi-directional charging capability that the research project required. All vehicles in this study were manufactured and distributed by VIA Motors, Inc. There were six vehicles total and each was VIA’s VTRUX eREV V2G model, a modified General Motors Chevrolet 2500 2WD van. Three of the vans were configured as passenger vans and the other three were configured as cargo vans. Each van had an on-board bi-direcrtional inverter/charger, Bel Power Solutions model 350INVCHGT150-120-240-8G nominally rated at +/-15 kW. The VIA van’s charging connector follows the J1772 charging protocol. The bi-directional EVSEs demonstrated in this study were manufactured by Coritech, Inc. Each VGI-80-AC charging station enabled enhanced V2G charging capability to a Clipper Creek CS-100 charging module. The enhanced capabilities included ethernet communication following the SEP2.0 protocol with a distributed energy resource function set and an operator screen displaying real-time SOC, voltage, and current. The VGI-80-AC charging stations are classified as level 2 with a maximum current output of 80 A or effectively 19 kW. The VIA van’s onboard charger limited the charging and discharging power to 15 kW in each direction. A control computer was installed in the EWOC and connected to an existing monitor. The V2G control communication network was a completely stand-alone closed system that did not have any connection to any other networks on the base. A cybersecure remote communication connection was created with a cellular modem, firewall hardware, and a virtual private network configuration.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Common Grid Services: Terms and Definitions Report

This document is prepared as part of the Department of Energy’s Grid Modernization Laboratory Consortium (GMLC) 2.5.2 project, whose goal is to develop and socialize a common set of grid service definitions relevant to grid-related interactions with distributed energy resources (DER: responsive generation, storage, and loads) and to advance the concept and requirements of the Energy Services Interface (ESI) to the point of launching related interface standards and guides that can be implemented in communication protocols and business process definitions. The notion of grid services is associated with the definition of an ESI because a key principle of the ESI is that it permits coordination between grid operators and DER facilities in a way that is service-oriented with an understanding of performance expectations. The project investigated the current state of North American grid service definitions from various market operators and utilities, as well as the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, actively used today (Liu et al. 2022). This document builds on that work to propose terms and definitions for a set of grid service types that address operational objectives commonly found in power system operations. These grid service types derive from existing grid services used in bulk electric market operations, recognizing that each operational authority uses somewhat different names with variations on service performance parameters. Finding commonality at the wholesale or bulk system operation level will hopefully engender progress in seeking agreement on grid services for DER engagement at the distribution level in the emerging retail marketplace.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Microreactor-liquid metal battery system in energy markets: An evaluation of potential costs, technology, and policy impacts

Microreactors represent an emerging innovation in the nuclear industry; yet have been overshadowed by their high capital costs. With the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA), new opportunities have emerged to improve the economics of microreactor systems. This work examines liquid metal batteries (LMB) as a value-adding technology as part of microreactor-LMB systems within three U.S. electricity markets: ERCOT, PJM, and MISO. Our investigation considers key uncertainties: the cost of microreactors, the performance of LMBs, and the eligible tax credit levels. To this end, we use a dispatch optimization to trace not only the changes in system economics but also to provide a granular picture of energy delivery within the systems. We find that even with favorable costs for microreactors, significant regional variations in the project sizing and returns exist across the markets. Our heuristic method identifies their non-electric application potentials beyond electricity and technical requirements to maximize returns. The results suggest that 12–39 % of reactor heat could be cost-effectively diverted to produce more valuable by-products in U.S. markets. Including the impacts of tax credits, we establish the outcomes of each provision with varying rates. Coupling an LMB to a microreactor consistently improves the net present value of a microreactor compared to its standalone operation. In conclusion, for reasonable assumed conditions, we quantify a heterogeneous impact of round-trip efficiency (RTE) and extended LMB service life across the three markets—a one-year extension in LMB service life is roughly equivalent to a 2.11 % improvement in RTE for ERCOT, 1.16 % for PJM, and 1.04 % for MISO.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Study of Emerging Ancillary Service Markets in Non-Restricted Regions of the Western Power Grid (CRADA Final Report)

Rising penetrations of renewable energy generation in the Western United States pose new requirements for ancillary services, which are the services required, in addition to energy service, in order to maintain the system reliability. This project combines the research capabilities of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the University of Colorado at Boulder (CU-Boulder) to provide more accurate information to market participants and regulators about the present and future size and composition of ancillary service markets in the non-restructured regions of the West. This information would provide market participants and state and federal regulators with a more transparent view of future ancillary service markets, and allow for more efficient system planning in both the private and public sectors of the electricity market.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Application of Banking Scoring and Rating for Coherent Risk Measures in Electricity Systems ABSCORES

This project developed a framework for asset and system risk management that can be incorporated into current electricity system operations to improve economic efficiency and establish an Electric Assets Risk Bureau. We leveraged scoring and ratings from banking and financial institutions alongside current optimization methods in dispatching power systems to help system operators and electricity markets schedule resources. This approach is based on the observation that there are major discrepancies between the power scheduled by a system operator and the actual power generated/consumed. These discrepancies—exacerbated by unplanned contingencies (e.g., natural disasters)—are caused by multiple factors, including the different financial, environmental and risk preferences of power producers, consumers, and aggregators. We developed a framework that counteracts two failures in electricity system operations: imperfect information and missing markets for products. The technical approach included five tasks. Tasks 1 and 2 supported the development of risk scores at the asset level with historical data collected for this project. Tasks 3, 4, and 5 incorporated scoring into decision-making at the system level. The proposed effort achieved PERFORM's Program Objectives because the proposed outputs and algorithms do not exist in the electricity industry and are an innovative approach to managing risk. Since the acknowledged need to better assess and act upon risk profiles for grid assets has not been met by the industry, this project will also impact ARPA-E's Mission Areas, including improving energy efficiency and giving the U.S. a technological lead in advanced energy technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydropower Market Game

SF-25-121 The Hydropower Market Game is an interactive educational software developed to teach fundamental concepts of hydropower generation, operations, and its role within electricity markets. Developed in Python and powered by Pygame, the game combines narrative-driven learning with progressive, hands-on levels where players explore topics such as the relationship between water flow and power generation, dam operations, pumped-storage systems, market interactions, and environmental constraints.Designed to support outreach and workforce development initiatives, the game provides an intuitive and engaging way to build energy literacy and raise awareness of hydropower’s contribution to the nation’s energy system.

Ploussard, Quentin [Argonne National Laboratory (A↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling and Market Design Considerations for Conventional and Decarbonized Resources

The following paper reviews various market design issues that will need to be reconsidered due to anticipated changes in the resources that supply energy in wholesale electricity markets. As the energy supply continues towards decarbonization, the change in resource technologies will affect the fundamentals of production scheduling and the policies to address supply variability and uncertainty. We show through simple numerical examples that the existing market design approach based on fuel costs will result in $0/MWh prices with intermittent price spikes during reserve shortages, but that incorporating more granular reserve pricing, energy storage participation, and price-responsive demand participation can restore efficient market clearing with reasonable pricing outcomes. The market design approach fundamentally shifts from fuel based to opportunity cost based. We briefly review alternative market design frameworks that can support this shift, including intraday markets, decentralized markets, flexibility options, and swing contracts. Market designs may also be required to accommodate or support various out-of-market policies and agreements; ideally, these external factors can be integrated into the market design to facilitate efficient exchanges across longer time scales, between other markets, and in support of public policy goals. The paper concludes by discussing how decarbonization trends may affect the design and use of production cost models for short term operations and long term planning studies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integration of Energy Storage in Fossil Energy Power Plants (ES-FE) Market Analysis

This analysis consists of identifying the economic signals for the integration of ES-FE concepts in major Independent System Operators (ISOs), such as Mid-Continent (MISO), Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), California (CAISO), and Pennsylvania, Jersey, Maryland Power Pool (PJM). This piece of work came from our interest in understanding how and at what level an electricity market would renumerate a fossil energy power plant that integrates energy storage, meaning a fossil power plant that adds any type of energy storage to their power plant.

Pena-Cabra, Ivonne A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling nuclear energy’s future role in decarbonized energy systems

Increased attention has been focused on the potential role of nuclear energy in future electricity markets and energy systems as stakeholders target rapid and deep decarbonization and reductions in fossil fuel use. This paper examines models of electric sector planning and broader energy systems optimization to understand the prospective roles of nuclear energy and other technologies. In this perspective, we survey modeling challenges in this environment, illustrate opportunities to propagate best practices, and highlight insights from the deep decarbonization literature on the range of visions for nuclear energy's role. Nuclear energy deployment is highest with combinations of stringent emissions policies, nuclear cost reductions, and constraints on the deployment of other technologies, which underscores model dimensions related to these areas. New modeling capabilities are needed to adequately address emerging issues, including representing characteristics and applications of nuclear energy in systems models, and to ensure the relevance of models for policy and planning as deeper decarbonization is explored.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Influences on hydrogen production at a wind farm

If an affordable infrastructure for low-carbon-intensity hydrogen can be developed, then hydrogen is expected to become a key factor in decarbonizing the atmosphere. This research focuses on factors an existing wind farm operator would consider when weighing participating in the electricity market, the hydrogen market, or both. The solutions depend on the state of technology, which is changing rapidly, the local market structures, the local natural resources, and the local pre-existing infrastructure. Consequently, this investigation used an assessment approach that examined the variation of net present value. The investigation identified profitability conditions under three different scenarios: 1) Make and sell what makes economic sense at the time of production, 2) Use electrolyzer and fuel cell to consume power from the grid at times of low net demand and to produce electricity at times of high net demand, 3) Same as #2 but also market hydrogen directly when profitable.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law on the U.S. Power System

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021, commonly referred to as the 'Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL),' collectively represent the largest commitment of the U.S. Federal Government to invest in the modernization and decarbonization of the U.S. energy system. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that total support for the broad range of climate and clean energy programs, tax credits, and other incentives authorized through the two laws will exceed $430 billion from 2022 through 2031 (CRS 2022; CBO 2021, 2022). While the climate and clean energy provisions are numerous and have the potential to impact all aspects of the U.S. energy system from fuel and electricity production to final consumption in industry, transportation, and buildings, the provisions relevant to the electricity sector - in particular the suite of tax credits for clean generation, storage, and carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) capture and storage - are expected to be some of the most consequential in terms of emissions reduction and clean energy deployment (Larsen et al. 2022; Jenkins, Mayfield, et al. 2022; Mahajan et al. 2022; Zhao et al. 2022). In this report, we detail the methods and results of a study estimating the potential impacts of key provisions of IRA and BIL on the contiguous U.S. power sector from present day through 2030. The analysis employs an advanced power system planning model, the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), to evaluate how major provisions from both laws impact investment in and operation of utility-scale generation, storage, and transmission, and, in turn, how those changes impact power system costs, emissions, and climate and health damages. While not exhaustive in capturing every provision, the analysis estimates the possible scale of power-sector impacts that could result from the modeled provisions in IRA and BIL. The study is structured around two scenarios to evaluate the potential impacts of both laws on the power sector: 1) No New Policy: A counter-factual scenario that reflects all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, with exception to IRA and BIL, and assumes load growth consistent with the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO22) Reference case (EIA 2022a); 2) IRA-BIL: A scenario reflecting all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, including key IRA and BIL provisions, most notably the investment and production tax credits for zero-carbon emitting electricity generation and storage (ITC and PTC), the tax credit for CO 2 capture and storage (45Q), and the tax credit for existing nuclear plants (described further in Section 2.3). To account for the impacts of IRA and BIL on electrification, assumes increased load growth consistent with a scaled version of the Medium Electrification scenario from the Electrification Futures Study (Mai et al. 2018). These scenarios are simulated across seven sets of assumptions with varying projected future electricity market conditions, including technology costs and performance, natural gas prices, and the degree of availability, feasibility, and cost of development of renewable resources, electricity transmission, and CO 2 pipeline, injection, and storage infrastructure. In addition, we simulate two sensitivities on the 'policy' treatment in which we vary key assumptions pertaining to the realized value of the clean electricity ITC and PTC: 1) the cost of monetization of tax credits, and 2) the level of bonus crediting realized by project developers. We demonstrate that IRA and BIL have the collective potential to drive substantial growth in clean electricity by 2030, while reducing costs for consumers, mitigating climate change, and decreasing the human health impacts of power sector emissions. However, we also demonstrate that if expected cost improvements of clean technologies are not realized and/or constraints on deployment driven by factors such as supply-chain challenges, regulatory hurdles, and the social acceptability of energy infrastructure development limit the rate of clean energy and associated infrastructure deployment (such as transmission), then the share of clean generation achieved and the associated emissions benefits realized may be substantively reduced.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Flexible Plant Operation and Generation Technical Program Plan for FY2023

This report presents the Technical Program Plan for Fiscal Years 2023-2027 (FY2023 to FY2027) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program—Flexible Plant Operation and Generation Research Pathway. The objective of this pathway is to carry out the research needed to help nuclear power plants diversify revenue generation for the life of these plants. The purpose of these research and development activities is two fold: (1) to reduce the technical and economic risks of implementing FPOG applications and (2) to provide guidance on relevant safety and environmental operating license reviews, amendments, and renewals. This pathway provides a clear understanding of the benefits of nuclear energy beyond electricity markets. A detailed description of the research and development activities that have been completed and that are planned for FY2023—FY2027 are presented in this report. These activities include completing the development of analysis tools to perform technical and economic assessments of realistic market opportunities for producing secondary energy products near nuclear power plants. They also include developing and demonstrating engineering systems and control concepts to dispatch thermal and electrical power to an industrial user. Additionally, this plan includes developing guidance for addressing potential regulatory and licensing requirements. In addition, the formation, purpose, and activities of a group referred to as the Hydrogen Regulatory Research and Review Group is discussed. An overview is also provided on the potential benefits of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) Bill that will support the commencement of Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubs, and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) that provides compelling production tax credits for nuclear electricity and clean hydrogen using nuclear energy.

08 HYDROGEN↗