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Probing intermediate temperature heat release in autoignition of C3-C4 iso-alcohol/gasoline blends
In this work, we report an experimental and modeling study on the blending effects of C3–C4 iso-alcohols, namely iso-propanol and iso-butanol, on the characteristics of intermediate temperature heat release (ITHR) for a research-grade gasoline (FACE-F) in a rapid compression machine operating at diluted/stoichiometric fuel loading, compressed pressure of 43 bar, and compressed temperatures from 700 to 970 K. Changes in ITHR behavior are characterized through ITHR extent and evolution at 0 to 30 vol% iso-alcohol blending levels. Experimental observations reveal the strong promoting and decelerating effects on ITHR extent and evolution, respectively, within the low-temperature regime for both iso-alcohols, with stronger effects seen for iso-propanol; within the intermediate-temperature regime, the influence of both iso-alcohols diminishes greatly. Comprehensive chemical kinetic modeling is undertaken using a recently developed gasoline surrogate/alcohol model in conjunction with a five-component gasoline surrogate (FGF-LLNL), with good agreement obtained with the experiments for all the blends. Sensitivity, rate of production and flux analyses highlight the importance of chemical kinetic interactions via both fuel-specific and non-fuel-specific reactions. Disabling all the chemical kinetic interactions between iso-alcohol and FGF-LLNL in carbonated/non-fuel-specific species leads to somewhat extended ITHR duration and reduced ignition reactivity. Direct comparison between FGF-LLNL/iso-propanol and FGF-LLNL/iso-butanol blends is also made, where iso-propanol and iso-butanol are found to influence ITHR characteristics via significantly different chemical kinetic interactions.
Best-estimate Modeling of the High Temperature Test Facility with RELAP5-3D
Prismatic HTGRs are a concept of interest for near-term deployment. While plenty of validation data exist for standalone neutronics or multiphysics modeling, the availability of integral effects thermal hydraulics validation data is more limited. The High Temperature Test Facility provides such data and is used as the basis for the High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor Thermal Hydraulics Benchmark. This presentation presents results of best-estimate modeling of HTTF experiments PG-27 and PG-29 using the RELAP5-3D ring model developed at Idaho National Laboratory.
Predicting Cement-Sheath Integrity with Consideration of Initial State of Stress and Thermoporoelastic Effects
In conventional wellbore-integrity analysis, the cement sheath’s initial state of stress and transient thermoporoelastic effects are often neglected. However, the initial state of stress is prerequisite information for accurately predicting the safe operating conditions that prevent a cemented well from being damaged. In addition, transient thermoporoelastic effects can have a profound effect on when damage will occur. Here in this paper, we propose a model that includes these effects to predict the safe operating pressures and temperatures that will prevent cement-sheath failure. For the initial state of stress, we proposed an empirical model using measurements. Subsequent stress changes are evaluated by a fully coupled transient thermoporoelastic model to analyze the mechanical behavior of the cement sheath. We predict the safe operating envelope (SOE) for shear, tensile, and debonding cement-sheath failures caused by pressure and temperature perturbations after the cement sets. Our model predicts that pore pressure is a key factor for cement failure, especially for rapid temperature changes. If the formation is low permeability, the transient pore pressures are amplified, causing the risk of damage to increase. Compared with conventional thermoelastic models, the thermoporoelastic model predicts a smaller SOE when heating the internal casing fluid and a larger envelope when cooling the internal casing fluid. Finally, the heating rate was considered with respect to field applications. The heating rate was also considered, and slower heating/cooling rates can prevent damage to the cement sheath. Finally, the thermoporoelastic model was applied to explain several laboratory and field experiments and achieved good matches.
Dataset for "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantification" Willard et al. (2025).
This data release provides all data and code used in the paper " "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantifications" Willard et al. (2025)" to model stream temperature, evaluate, and assess results. The associated manuscript explores the effect of different ensemble construction techniques across different common machine learning (ML) architectures for predictions in unmonitored basins. Modeling was done using long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), temporal convolution network (TCN), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models, and stream site coverage spans 1362 locations across the conterminous United States. The ensemble construction techniques investigated include ensemble by random weight initialization, differing hyperparameters, different random subsets of training data, different subselections of input features, different architectures, and Monte Carlo Dropout. The data is organized into these items items:Code repository and data for the paper " "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantifications" Willard et al. (2025).Code: stream_temp_ml_regionalization.zip contains the code repositoryData to run the code:- data_dir.zip -- contains all files that should be moved to the "DATA_DIR" variable defined in the "set_env_vars.sh" script in the code repository- metadata_dir.zip -- contains all files that should be moved to the "METADATA_DIR" variable defined in the "set_env_vars.sh" script in the code repositoryData produced by the code and used in the paper:- outputs_dir.zip - contains model output and results (outputs_dir/results), model weights (outputs_dir/models), and all other outputs used for the paper including feature importances.To cite this code, please use the following BibTeX or MLA entries:bibtex:@misc{willard2025streamensembles,author = {Jared Willard and Charuleka Varadharajan},title = {Dataset for "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantification"},year = {2024},doi = {10.15485/2527393},publisher = {ESS-DIVE Repository},url = {https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/2527393}}MLA: Willard, Jared, et al. Dataset for "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantification". 2025. ESS-DIVE Repository, doi:10.15485/2448016.
Bayesian analysis for estimating statistical parameter distributions of elasto-viscoplastic material models
High temperature design methods rely on constitutive models for inelastic deformation and failure typically calibrated against the mean of experimental data without considering the associated scatter. Variability may arise from the experimental data acquisition process, from heat-to-heat material property variations, or both and need to be accurately captured to predict parameter bounds leading to efficient component design. Applying the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to produce statistical models capturing the underlying uncertainty in the experimental data is an area of ongoing research interest. This work varies aspects of the Bayesian MCMC method and explores their effect on the posterior parameter distributions for a uniaxial elasto-viscoplastic damage model using synthetically generated reference data. From our analysis with the uniaxial inelastic model we determine that an informed prior distribution including different types of test conditions results in more accurate posterior parameter distributions. The parameter posterior distributions, however, do not improve when increasing the number of similar experimental data. Additionally, changing the amount of scatter in the data affects the quality of the posterior distributions, especially for the less sensitive model parameters. Moreover, we perform a sensitivity study of the model parameters against the likelihood function prior to the Bayesian analysis. The results of the sensitivity analysis help to determine the reliability of the posterior distributions and reduce the dimensionality of the problem by fixing the insensitive parameters. The comprehensive study described in this work demonstrates how to efficiently apply the Bayesian MCMC methodology to capture parameter uncertainties in high temperature inelastic material models. Quantifying these uncertainties in inelastic models will improve high temperature engineering design practices and lead to safer, more effective component designs.
Comparison of Results between the Legacy and Refined RELAP5-3D Models of the High Temperature Test Facility in Exercises 1 and 2 of the HTTF Benchmark
Work conducted in FY23 identified that RELAP5-3D was capable of reproducing trends in HTTF data during experiment PG-27 but was incapable of reproducing measured values. The primary cause of this discrepancy between RELAP5-3D results and experimental data was hypothesized to be a distortion in power density that was introduced by the radial nodalization of the model. We further hypothesized that a new model would provide better results when compared to the experiments PG-27 and PG-29. Work this FY developed a new model that is better capable of capturing local heat generation rates and contains a representation of each 1/6 azimuthal sector of the core. We used this model to develop a new set of solutions to Exercises 1 and 2 of Problems 2 and 3 in the benchmark. In this report, we present the first comprehensive comparison of the results between the two models. We see that in Exercise 1A, which is common between problems 2 and 3, the results are similar, though the results from the new model show greater detail than those from the legacy model. In Problem 2 Exercise 1B and Problem 3 Exercise 1B, we see that heat removal is slower in the new model than the legacy model. Problem 3 Exercise 1C shows temperatures that are lower in most places in the new model than the legacy model, but the area with active heat generation has higher block temperatures in the new model than the legacy model. Problem 3 Exercise 1D further shows that long-term heat removal is lower in the new model. Problem 2 Exercise 1C demonstrated that the new model observes higher temperatures in the core regions than the legacy model, justifying the need to preserve the power density in HTTF. The validation of PG-27 and PG-29 also demonstrated the improved temperature agreement in the core regions, particularly with a calibrated model that implements an effective thermal conductivity for the core material. Overall, PG-27 models show reasonable to excellent agreement for steady-state temperatures and minimal to reasonable agreement for transients. PG-29 models showed minimal to insufficient agreement with the data.
Quantum efficiency of InGaN–GaN multi-quantum well solar cells: Experimental characterization and modeling
InGaN-based multi-quantum well (MQW) solar cells are promising devices for photovoltaics (e.g., for tandem solar cells and concentrator systems), space applications, and wireless power transfer. In order to improve the efficiency of these devices, the factors limiting their efficiency and stability must be investigated in detail. Due to the complexity of a MQW structure, compared with a simple pn junction, modeling the spectral response of these solar cells is not straightforward, and ad hoc methodologies must be implemented. In this paper, we propose a model, based on material parameters and closed-formula equations, that describes the shape of the quantum efficiency of InGaN/GaN MQW solar cells, by taking into account the layer thickness, the temperature dependence of the absorption coefficient, and quantum confinement effects. We demonstrate (i) that the proposed model can effectively reproduce the spectral response of the cells; in addition, (ii) we prove that the bulk p-GaN layer absorbs radiation, but the carriers photogenerated in this region do not significantly contribute to device current. Finally, we show that (iii) by increasing the temperature, there is a redshift of the absorption edge due to bandgap narrowing, which can be described by Varshni law and is taken into account by the model, and a lowering in the extraction efficiency due to the increase in recombination (mostly Shockley–Read–Hall) inside the quantum wells, which is also visible by decreasing light intensity.
Non-linear relationships between daily temperature extremes and US agricultural yields uncovered by global gridded meteorological datasets
Global agricultural commodity markets are highly integrated among major producers. Prices are driven by aggregate supply rather than what happens in individual countries in isolation. Furthermore, estimating the effects of weather-induced shocks on production, trade patterns and prices hence requires a globally representative weather data set. Recently, two data sets that provide daily or hourly records, GMFD and ERA5-Land, became available. Starting with the US, a data rich region, we formally test whether these global data sets are as good as more fine-scaled country-specific data in explaining yields and whether they estimate similar response functions. While GMFD and ERA5-Land have lower predictive skill for US corn and soybeans yields than the fine-scaled PRISM data, they still correctly uncover the underlying non-linear temperature relationship. All specifications using daily temperature extremes under any of the weather data sets outperform models that use a quadratic in average temperature. Correctly capturing the effect of daily extremes has a larger effect than the choice of weather data. In a second step, focusing on Sub Saharan Africa, a data sparse region, we confirm that GMFD and ERA5-Land have superior predictive power to CRU, a global weather data set previously employed for modeling climate effects in the region.
TEMPEST (Thermo-Electric Model for Powering Energy Storage Technologies)
NREL's TEMPEST model combines electrical and thermal modeling for residential-scale battery systems. The model and default parameters are based off of two common commercial residential batteries. Key inputs to the model include house load, temperature of the battery location, and the solar profile. The key output of the TEMPEST model is the battery profile and internal battery temperature. If internal battery temperature exceeds limits, a derating will occur and this will be reflected in the battery profile. In addition to thermal modeling, the TEMPEST model uses realistic operating principals that are common in today's residential batteries. Mainly, the TEMPEST model incorporates "modes" of operation that constrain battery setpoint based on house load, solar output, and state of charge. The TEMPEST model can be used to analyze the effect of battery temperature, deratings, and mode setpoints on utility network loading and customer bills.
Microwave Heating-Induced Temperature Gradients in Liquid–Liquid Biphasic Systems
Microwaves (MWs) can enable the electrification and intensification of chemical manufacturing. They have been applied to various unit separations, such as drying, distillation, and extraction, entailing gas–liquid and solid–liquid systems. However, a limited quantitative understanding of MW-heated liquid–liquid biphasic systems related to extraction exists. This work measures the temporal and spatial temperature difference between an aqueous and an organic phase in batch and continuous microfluidic modes. We demonstrate permanent temperature differences between phases over 35 °C and spatiotemporal periodic and quasiperiodic oscillations modulated by the flow patterns. The temperature differences are primarily driven by the faster absorption rate of MW irradiation by the aqueous phase versus the slower heat transfer from the aqueous phase to the organic phase. These are amplified by low specific interfacial area and modifications of the electromagnetic field. We employ a multiphysics model to predict the temperature difference in a batch system. The model is in good agreement with the experiments. We demonstrate a strong effect of input power, dielectric properties of organic solvents, the volume of solvents, and the volume ratio between phases on the temperature difference. A simple analytical model describes the temperature difference and provides design principles. Furthermore, the combined approach offers new insights into the design and optimization of the MW-heated biphasic systems.
Modeling and design of a separate effects irradiation test targeting fission gas release from Cr-doped UO 2
Fission gas release (FGR) from nuclear fuel during operation can diminish heat transfer properties across the pellet-cladding gap and increase the fuel rod internal pressure, thereby posing a concern to fuel reliability and safety during an accident. Enlarging the fuel grain size, which has been shown to improve fission gas retention, can be achieved by doping the fuel feedstock prior to sintering. In this work, the BISON fuel performance code was used to predict FGR from undoped and chromia-doped UO 2 (referred to as Cr-doped UO 2 ) fuel specimens with different grain sizes and across various temperatures. The BISON models identified the irradiation conditions for which FGR is most significant, and a separate effects irradiation experiment in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) was then developed targeting those conditions. Further, the experiment leveraged the MiniFuel irradiation capability at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and consisted of 12 fuel specimens of varying grain size and Cr content. A coupling scheme between BISON FGR results and the ANSYS finite element thermal model used for experiment design was formulated to predict cumulative FGR from each fuel specimen based on expected irradiation temperature histories. The fuel samples were fabricated and characterized as a part of this work, and the fuel compositions modeled in BISON were representative of the specimens used in the experiment. This combined modeling and experimental effort aims to study the effect of fuel grain size and Cr content on FGR and to provide simulated BISON FGR results that can be used for future model validation activities.
Storms Are an Important Driver of Change in Tropical Forests
Tropical forest dynamics and composition have changed over recent decades, but the proximate drivers of these changes remain unclear. Investigations into these trends have focused on increasing drought stress, CO 2 , temperature, and fires, whereas convective storms are generally overlooked. We argue that existing literature provides clear support for the importance of storms as drivers of forest change. We reanalyze the largest plot-based study of tropical forest carbon dynamics to show that lightning frequency—an indicator of storm activity—strongly predicts forest carbon storage and residence time, and its inclusion improves model fit and weakens evidence for the effects of high temperatures. Convective storm activity has increased 5%–25% per decade over the past half century. Extrapolating from historic trends, we estimate that storms likely contribute ca. 50% of the reported increases in biomass mortality across Amazonia, with all realistic combinations of assumptions indicating a possible range of 12%–118%. Spatial variation in storm activity shows weak relationships with drought, demonstrating that forests can experience high drought stress, high storm activity, or both. Accordingly, we hypothesise that convective storms are among the most important drivers of tropical forest change, and as such, they require significant research investment to avoid misguiding science, policy, and management.
Spectral Radiative Properties of Ceramic Particles for Concentrated Solar Thermal Energy Storage Applications
This work investigates the spectral radiative properties of ceramic particles using a monochromator and a Fourier-transform infrared spectrometer (FTIR) with integrating spheres at wavelengths from 0.38 μm to 15 μm. Particles are encased between two transparent windows to obtain the directional-hemispherical reflectance of the particle bed. Two types of commercially available particles with three different sizes are examined. Integration over the solar spectrum reveals that the solar absorptance of the particle beds is between 0.940 and 0.957. The total emittance at 1000 K is also estimated by assuming the spectral emittance is independent of temperature. The optical constants of particles are modeled with effective medium approaches, considering the optical properties of individual constituent materials. The absorptance of the particle is estimated using the effective optical constants and compared with that of the particle bed from the measurement. Finally, this work facilitates the characterization of radiative properties of particles with a windowed method and provides a modeling scheme for approximating the radiative properties of composite ceramic materials.
Theoretical Investigation of Solvent Effects on the Hydrodeoxygenation of Propionic Acid over a Ni(111) Catalyst Model
The effect of two solvents, liquid water and 1,4-dioxane, has been studied from first principles on the hydrodeoxygenation of propionic acid over a Ni (111) catalyst surface model. A mean-field microkinetic model was developed to investigate these effects at a temperature of 473 K. Under all reaction conditions, a decarbonylation mechanism is favored significantly over a decarboxylation pathway. Although no significant solvent effects were observed on the decarbonylation rate, a substantial solvent stabilization of two key surface intermediates in the decarboxylation mechanism, CH 3 CCOO and CH 3 CHCOO, lead to a notable increase of the decarboxylation rate by two orders of magnitude in liquid water and by one order of magnitude in liquid 1,4-dioxane. Furthermore, a significant solvent stabilization of the transition state of C-H bond cleavage of the α-carbon of CH 3 CHCO, relative to the stabilization of the C-C bond cleavage of the α-carbon of CH 3 CHCO, leads to a change in dominant pathway in the liquid phase environments. Finally, a sensitivity analysis shows that the C-OH bond cleavage of propionic acid and C-C bond cleavage of the α-carbon of CH 3 CHCO are the most rate controlling states in the gas phase. In contrast, in solvents the dehydrogenation of CH 3 CHCO becomes the most influential step. This shift in rate controlling state is attributed to the solvent effect on the dehydrogenation of CH 3 CHCO, which is facilitated in aqueous phase. Altogether, it is likely that the investigated (111) facet of Ni is not active for the hydrodeoxygenation of propionic acid in neither the gas nor liquid phase and other Ni facets or phases must be responsible for the experimentally observed kinetics.
Phase mediated dynamics of self-propagating Co/Al nanolaminate reactions
The ignition of sputter deposited nanolaminate foils comprised of alternating Co and Al layers results in rapid, self-propagating formation reactions. The propagating waves present after ignition of 150 nm-thick foils are characterized in movie mode dynamic transmission electron microscopy where these are found to have reaction speeds and wave morphology that vary with bilayer thickness. High speed videography reveals different bilayer thickness-wave character relationships in 750 nm- and 7500 nm-thick Co/Al foils. The reaction speed dependencies on bilayer thickness are calculated for each total thickness by treating the effect of radiation loss as a perturbation from an analytical model described by the difference in the heat of reaction measured in calorimetry and the adiabatic heat of product formation. From this model, an effective activation energy, diffusion constant, and flame temperatures are obtained, which allows for an interpretation of the reaction phase variations with laminate design and their effects on propagating wave morphology.
Quantum phase transitions in long-range interacting hyperuniform spin chains in a transverse field
Hyperuniform states of matter are characterized by anomalous suppression of long-wavelength density fluctuations. While most of the interesting cases of disordered hyperuniformity are provided by complex many-body systems such as liquids or amorphous solids, classical spin chains with certain long-range interactions have been shown to demonstrate the same phenomenon. Such spin-chain systems are ideal models for exploring the effects of quantum mechanics on hyperuniformity. It is well-known that the transverse field Ising model shows a quantum phase transition (QPT) at zero temperature. Under the quantum effects of a transverse magnetic field, classical hyperuniform spin chains are expected to lose their hyperuniformity. High-precision simulations of these cases are complicated because of the presence of highly nontrivial long-range interactions. We perform an extensive analysis of these systems using density matrix renormalization group simulations to study the possibilities of phase transitions and the mechanism by which they lose hyperuniformity. Even for a spin chain of length 30, we see discontinuous changes in properties like the “τ order metric” of the ground state, the measure of hyperuniformity, and the second cumulant of the total magnetization along the x-direction, all suggestive of first-order QPTs. An interesting feature of the phase transitions in these disordered hyperuniform spin chains is that, depending on the parameter values, the presence of a transverse magnetic field may lead remarkably to an increase in the order of the ground state as measured by the “τ order metric,” even if hyperuniformity is lost. Therefore, it would be possible to design materials to target specific novel quantum behaviors in the presence of a transverse magnetic field. Our numerical investigations suggest that these spin chains can show no more than two QPTs. We further analyze the long-range interacting spin chains via the Jordan-Wigner mapping onto a system of spinless fermions, showing that under the pairwise-interaction approximation and a mean-field treatment, there can be at most two quantum phase transitions. Here, based on these numerical and theoretical explorations, we conjecture that for spin chains with long-range pair interactions that have convergent cosine transforms, there can be a maximum of two quantum phase transitions at zero temperature.
Ultrafast Renormalization of the On-Site Coulomb Repulsion in a Cuprate Superconductor
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