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At least 199 records · Page 11

Assessment of risk due to the use of carbon fiber composites in commercial and general aviation

The development of a national risk profile for the total annual aircraft losses due to carbon fiber composite (CFC) usage through 1993 is discussed. The profile was developed using separate simulation methods for commercial and general aviation aircraft. A Monte Carlo method which was used to assess the risk in commercial aircraft is described. The method projects the potential usage of CFC through 1993, investigates the incidence of commercial aircraft fires, models the potential release and dispersion of carbon fibers from a fire, and estimates potential economic losses due to CFC damaging electronic equipment. The simulation model for the general aviation aircraft is described. The model emphasizes variations in facility locations and release conditions, estimates distribution of CFC released in general aviation aircraft accidents, and tabulates the failure probabilities and aggregate economic losses in the accidents.

Fiksel, J.↗

Integrating Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) graphics and extended memory packages with CLIPS

This paper addresses the question of how to mix CLIPS with graphics and how to overcome PC's memory limitations by using the extended memory available in the computer. By adding graphics and extended memory capabilities, CLIPS can be converted into a complete and powerful system development tool, on the other most economical and popular computer platform. New models of PCs have amazing processing capabilities and graphic resolutions that cannot be ignored and should be used to the fullest of their resources. CLIPS is a powerful expert system development tool, but it cannot be complete without the support of a graphics package needed to create user interfaces and general purpose graphics, or without enough memory to handle large knowledge bases. Now, a well known limitation on the PC's is the usage of real memory which limits CLIPS to use only 640 Kb of real memory, but now that problem can be solved by developing a version of CLIPS that uses extended memory. The user has access of up to 16 MB of memory on 80286 based computers and, practically, all the available memory (4 GB) on computers that use the 80386 processor. So if we give CLIPS a self-configuring graphics package that will automatically detect the graphics hardware and pointing device present in the computer, and we add the availability of the extended memory that exists in the computer (with no special hardware needed), the user will be able to create more powerful systems at a fraction of the cost and on the most popular, portable, and economic platform available such as the PC platform.

Callegari, Andres C.↗

The Aviation System Analysis Capability Air Carrier Cost-Benefit Model

To meet its objective of assisting the U.S. aviation industry with the technological challenges of the future, NASA must identify research areas that have the greatest potential for improving the operation of the air transportation system. Therefore, NASA is developing the ability to evaluate the potential impact of various advanced technologies. By thoroughly understanding the economic impact of advanced aviation technologies and by evaluating how the new technologies will be used in the integrated aviation system, NASA aims to balance its aeronautical research program and help speed the introduction of high-leverage technologies. To meet these objectives, NASA is building the Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC). NASA envisions ASAC primarily as a process for understanding and evaluating the impact of advanced aviation technologies on the U.S. economy. ASAC consists of a diverse collection of models and databases used by analysts and other individuals from the public and private sectors brought together to work on issues of common interest to organizations in the aviation community. ASAC also will be a resource available to the aviation community to analyze; inform; and assist scientists, engineers, analysts, and program managers in their daily work. The ASAC differs from previous NASA modeling efforts in that the economic behavior of buyers and sellers in the air transportation and aviation industries is central to its conception. Commercial air carriers, in particular, are an important stakeholder in this community. Therefore, to fully evaluate the implications of advanced aviation technologies, ASAC requires a flexible financial analysis tool that credibly links the technology of flight with the financial performance of commercial air carriers. By linking technical and financial information, NASA ensures that its technology programs will continue to benefit the user community. In addition, the analysis tool must be capable of being incorporated into the wide-ranging suite of economic and technical models that comprise ASAC. This report describes an Air Carrier Cost-Benefit Model (CBM) that meets these requirements. The ASAC CBM is distinguished from many of the aviation cost-benefit models by its exclusive focus on commercial air carriers. The model considers such benefit categories as time and fuel savings, utilization opportunities, reliability and capacity enhancements, and safety and security improvements. The model distinguishes between benefits that are predictable and those that occur randomly. By making such a distinction, the model captures the ability of air carriers to reoptimize scheduling and crew assignments for predictable benefits. In addition, the model incorporates a life-cycle cost module for new technology, which applies the costs of nonrecurring acquisitions, recurring maintenance and operation, and training to each aircraft equipment type independently.

Gaier, Eric M.↗

The application of remote sensing techniques to selected inter and intra urban data acquisition problems

The utility of remote sensing techniques to urban data acquisition problems in several distinct areas was identified. This endeavor included a comparison of remote sensing systems for urban data collection, the extraction of housing quality data from aerial photography, utilization of photographic sensors in urban transportation studies, urban change detection, space photography utilization, and an application of remote sensing techniques to the acquisition of data concerning intra-urban commercial centers. The systematic evaluation of variable extraction for urban modeling and planning at several different scales, and the model derivation for identifying and predicting economic growth and change within a regional system of cities are also studied.

Horton, F. E.↗

The Space Tug economic analysis study - What we learned

This paper summarizes the scope, analytical methods, and principal findings of a recently performed Space-Tug economic analysis. Both the Shuttle/Tug transportation system and its unmanned payloads were modeled in this study. A variety of upper-stage concepts capable of fulfilling the Tug mission were evaluated against this model, and the 'best' Tug concepts were identified for a range of economic measures.

Hopkins, C. V.↗

Thermal energy storage heat exchanger: Molten salt heat exchanger design for utility power plants

The use of thermal energy storage (TES) in the latent heat of molten salts as a means of conserving fossil fuels and lowering the cost of electric power was evaluated. Public utility systems provided electric power on demand. This demand is generally maximum during late weekday afternoons, with considerably lower overnight and weekend loads. Typically, the average demand is only 60% to 80% of peak load. As peak load increases, the present practice is to purchase power from other grid facilities or to bring older less efficient fossil-fuel plants on line which increase the cost of electric power. The widespread use of oil-fired boilers, gas turbine and diesel equipment to meet peaking loads depletes our oil-based energy resources. Heat exchangers utilizing molten salts can be used to level the energy consumption curve. The study begins with a demand analysis and the consideration of several existing modern fossil-fuel and nuclear power plants for use as models. Salts are evaluated for thermodynamic, economic, corrosive, and safety characteristics. Heat exchanger concepts are explored and heat exchanger designs are conceived. Finally, the economics of TES conversions in existing plants and new construction is analyzed. The study concluded that TES is feasible in electric power generation. Substantial data are presented for TES design, and reference material for further investigation of techniques is included.

Ferarra, A.↗

Potential for cogeneration of heat and electricity in California industry, phase 2

The nontechnical issues of industrial cogeneration for 12 California firms were analyzed under three categories of institutional settings: (1) industrial ownership without firm sales of power; (2) industrial ownership with firm sales of power; and (3) utility or third party ownership. Institutional issues were analyzed from the independent viewpoints of the primary parties of interest: the industrial firms, the electric utilities and the California Public utilities Commission. Air quality regulations and the agencies responsible for their promulgation were examined, and a life cycle costing model was used to evaluate the economic merits of representative conceptual cogeneration systems at these sites. Specific recommendations were made for mitigating measures and regulatory action relevant to industrial cogeneration in California.

Davis, H. S.↗

Geometric adjustment of simultaneous Doppler-derived range differences

A mathematical model for the use of simultaneous Doppler derived correlated ranges in the geometric mode is presented. The model was tested with data taken during the EDOC-2 campaign with different integration intervals. The results of this adjustment are compared with the EDOC-2 adopted solution and those from an uncorrelated model used earlier to provide more economical calculations. It is shown that the correlated mode is superior to the uncorrelated one when the optimum integration interval of 23 seconds is used.

Zhang, C.↗

The Large Deployable Reflector - A technology development challenge

The proposed Large Deployable Reflector (LDR) telescope is an astrophysical orbiting platform whose aperture is of the order of 20 m, and is dedicated to observations in the IR and sub-mm wavelengths. NASA is currently planning a 5-year technology development program that will allow the requisite hardware and software to reach the state required for economical and reliable implementation. A computer model simulation is envisioned toward this end that will encompass and integrate structural, thermal, control, optics, and systems program elements. Possession of the enabling technology is foreseen for the early 1990s.

Pittman, R. B.↗

Advanced nozzle and engine components test facility

A test facility for conducting scaled advanced nozzle and engine component research is described. The CE-22 test facility, located in the Engine Research Building of the NASA Lewis Research Center, contains many systems for the economical testing of advanced scale-model nozzles and engine components. The combustion air and altitude exhaust systems are described. Combustion air can be supplied to a model up to 40 psig for primary air flow, and 40, 125, and 450 psig for secondary air flow. Altitude exhaust can be simulated up to 48,000 ft, or the exhaust can be atmospheric. Descriptions of the multiaxis thrust stand, a color schlieren flow visualization system used for qualitative flow analysis, a labyrinth flow measurement system, a data acquisition system, and auxiliary systems are discussed. Model recommended design information and temperature and pressure instrumentation recommendations are included.

Beltran, Luis R.↗

Advanced nozzle and engine components test facility

A test facility for conducting scaled advanced nozzle and engine component research is described. The CE-22 test facility, located in the Engine Research Building of the NASA Lewis Research Center, contains many systems for the economical testing of advanced scale-model nozzles and engine components. The combustion air and altitude exhaust systems are described. Combustion air can be supplied to a model up to 40 psig for primary air flow, and 40, 125, and 450 psig for secondary air flow. Altitude exhaust can be simulated up to 48,000 ft, or the exhaust can be atmospheric. Descriptions of the multiaxis thrust stand, a color schlieren flow visualization system used for qualitative flow analysis, a labyrinth flow measurement system, a data acquisition system, and auxiliary systems are discussed. Model recommeded design information and temperature and pressure instrumentation recommendations are included.

Beltran, Luis R.↗

Upwelling-Induced Primary Productivity in Coastal Waters of the Black Sea: Impact on Algorithms for Remote Sensing

This research program was a collaborative effort to investigate the impact of rapid changes in the water column during coastal upwelling, on biological and optical properties. These properties are important for constructing region or event-specific algorithms for remote sensing of pigment concentration and primary productivity and for comparing these algorithms with those used for the development of large scale maps from ocean color. We successfully achieved the primary objective of this research project which was to study in situ the dynamics of rapid spatial and temporal changes in properties of the water column during, coastal upwelling off the Crimean Coast in the Black Sea. The work was a collaborative effort between a group of biological and physical oceanographers from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and from two oceanographic research institutions in the Crimea, Ukraine, located near the study site, the Marine Hydrophysical Institute (MHI) and the Institute of Biology of the Southern Seas (IBSS). The site was an ideal experimental model, both from a technical and economic standpoint, because of the predictable summer upwelling that occurs in the region and because of the availability of both a ship on call and laboratory and remote sensing facilities at the nearby marine institutes. We used a combination of shipboard measurements and remote sensing to investigate the physical evolution of rapid upwelling events and their impact on photoplankton and water column optical properties. The field work involved a two day cruise for mooring, deployment and a three day baseline survey cruise, followed by an eleven day primary cruise during, a summer upwelling event (anticipated by monitoring local winds and tracked by remote sensing imaging). An MHI ship was outfitted and used for these purposes.

Goldman, Joel C.↗

Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war

Nuclear war, beyond its devastating direct impacts, is expected to cause global climatic perturbations through injections of soot into the upper atmosphere. Reduced temperature and sunlight could drive unprecedented reductions in agricultural production, endangering global food security. However, the effects of nuclear war on marine wild-capture fisheries, which significantly contribute to the global animal protein and micronutrient supply, remain unexplored. We simulate the climatic effects of six war scenarios on fish biomass and catch globally, using a state-of-the-art Earth system model and global process-based fisheries model. We also simulate how either rapidly increased fish demand (driven by food shortages) or decreased ability to fish (due to infrastructure disruptions), would affect global catches, and test the benefits of strong pre-war fisheries management. We find a decade-long negative climatic impact that intensifies with soot emissions, with global biomass and catch falling by up to 18 ± 3% and 29 ± 7% after a US-Russia war under business-as-usual fishing – similar in magnitude to the end-of-century declines under unmitigated global warming. When war occurs in an overfished state, increasing demand increases short-term (1-2 year) catch by at most ~30% followed by precipitous declines of up to ~70%, thus offsetting only a minor fraction of agricultural losses. However, effective pre-war management that rebuilds fish biomass could ensure a short-term catch buffer large enough to replace ~43 ± 35% of today’s global animal protein production. This buffering function in the event of a global food emergency adds to the many previously-known economic and ecological benefits of effective and precautionary fisheries management.

food from the ocean↗

Economic Impact of Water Allocation on Agriculture in the Lower Chattahoochee River Basin

The relative value of irrigation water was assessed for three important crops (corn, cotton, and peanuts) grown in the southeastern United States. A decision tool was developed with the objective of allocating limited available water among competing crops in a manner that would maximize the economic returns to the producers. The methodology was developed and tested for a hypothetical farm located in Henry County, Alabama in the Chattahoochee river basin. Crop yield - soil moisture response functions were developed using Monte Carlo simulated data for cotton, corn, and peanuts. A hydrologic model was employed to simulate runoff over the period of observed rainfall the county to provide inflows to storage facilities that could be used as constraints for the optimal allocation of the available water in the face of the uncertainty of future rainfall and runoff. Irrigation decisions were made on a weekly basis during the critical water deficit period in the region. An economic optimization model was employed with the crop responses, and soil moisture functions to determine the optimum amount of water place on each crop subject to the amount of irrigation water availability and climatic uncertainty. The results indicated even small amounts of irrigation could significantly benefit farmers in the region if applied judiciously. A weekly irrigation sequence was developed that maintained the available water on the crops that exhibited the most significant combination of water sensitivity and cash value.

Limaye, Ashutosh S.↗

The economic impact of NASA R and D spending: Executive summary

An evaluation of the economic impact of NASA research and development programs is made. The methodology and the results revolve around the interrelationships existing between the demand and supply effects of increased research and development spending, in particular, NASA research and development spending. The INFORUM Inter-Industry Forecasing Model is used to measure the short-run economic impact of alternative levels of NASA expenditures for 1975. An aggregate production function approach is used to develop the data series necessary to measure the impact of NASA research and development spending, and other determinants of technological progress, on the rate of growth in productivity of the U. S. economy. The measured relationship between NASA research and development spending and technological progress is simulated in the Chase Macroeconometric Model to measure the immediate, intermediate, and long-run economic impact of increased NASA research and development spending over a sustained period.

Evans, M. K.↗

Modeling and Prediction of Wildfire Hazard in Southern California, Integration of Models with Imaging Spectrometry

Large urban wildfires throughout southern California have caused billions of dollars of damage and significant loss of life over the last few decades. Rapid urban growth along the wildland interface, high fuel loads and a potential increase in the frequency of large fires due to climatic change suggest that the problem will worsen in the future. Improved fire spread prediction and reduced uncertainty in assessing fire hazard would be significant, both economically and socially. Current problems in the modeling of fire spread include the role of plant community differences, spatial heterogeneity in fuels and spatio-temporal changes in fuels. In this research, we evaluated the potential of Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and Airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (AIRSAR) data for providing improved maps of wildfire fuel properties. Analysis concentrated in two areas of Southern California, the Santa Monica Mountains and Santa Barbara Front Range. Wildfire fuel information can be divided into four basic categories: fuel type, fuel load (live green and woody biomass), fuel moisture and fuel condition (live vs senesced fuels). To map fuel type, AVIRIS data were used to map vegetation species using Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA) and Binary Decision Trees. Green live biomass and canopy moisture were mapped using AVIRIS through analysis of the 980 nm liquid water absorption feature and compared to alternate measures of moisture and field measurements. Woody biomass was mapped using L and P band cross polarimetric data acquired in 1998 and 1999. Fuel condition was mapped using spectral mixture analysis to map green vegetation (green leaves), nonphotosynthetic vegetation (NPV; stems, wood and litter), shade and soil. Summaries describing the potential of hyperspectral and SAR data for fuel mapping are provided by Roberts et al. and Dennison et al. To utilize remotely sensed data to assess fire hazard, fuel-type maps were translated into standard fuel models accessible to the FARSITE fire spread simulator. The FARSITE model and BEHAVE are considered industry standards for fire behavior analysis. Anderson level fuels map, generated using a binary decision tree classifier are available for multiple dates in the Santa Monica Mountains and at least one date for Santa Barbara. Fuel maps that will fill in the areas between Santa Barbara and the Santa Monica Mountains study sites are in progress, as part of a NASA Regional Earth Science Application Center, the Southern California Wildfire Hazard Center. Species-level maps, were supplied to fire managing agencies (Los Angeles County Fire, California Department of Forestry). Research results were published extensively in the refereed and non-refereed literature. Educational outreach included funding of several graduate students, undergraduate intern training and an article featured in the California Alliance for Minorities Program (CAMP) Quarterly Journal.

Roberts, Dar A.↗

Development of a Land Use Mapping and Monitoring Protocol for the High Plains Region: A Multitemporal Remote Sensing Application

The purpose of this project was to develop a practical protocol that employs multitemporal remotely sensed imagery, integrated with environmental parameters to model and monitor agricultural and natural resources in the High Plains Region of the United States. The value of this project would be extended throughout the region via workshops targeted at carefully selected audiences and designed to transfer remote sensing technology and the methods and applications developed. Implementation of such a protocol using remotely sensed satellite imagery is critical for addressing many issues of regional importance, including: (1) Prediction of rural land use/land cover (LULC) categories within a region; (2) Use of rural LULC maps for successive years to monitor change; (3) Crop types derived from LULC maps as important inputs to water consumption models; (4) Early prediction of crop yields; (5) Multi-date maps of crop types to monitor patterns related to crop change; (6) Knowledge of crop types to monitor condition and improve prediction of crop yield; (7) More precise models of crop types and conditions to improve agricultural economic forecasts; (8;) Prediction of biomass for estimating vegetation production, soil protection from erosion forces, nonpoint source pollution, wildlife habitat quality and other related factors; (9) Crop type and condition information to more accurately predict production of biogeochemicals such as CO2, CH4, and other greenhouse gases that are inputs to global climate models; (10) Provide information regarding limiting factors (i.e., economic constraints of pumping, fertilizing, etc.) used in conjunction with other factors, such as changes in climate for predicting changes in rural LULC; (11) Accurate prediction of rural LULC used to assess the effectiveness of government programs such as the U.S. Soil Conservation Service (SCS) Conservation Reserve Program; and (12) Prediction of water demand based on rural LULC that can be related to rates of draw-down of underground water supplies.

Price, Kevin P.↗

A study of commuter airline economics

Variables are defined and cost relationships developed that describe the direct and indirect operating costs of commuter airlines. The study focused on costs for new aircraft and new aircraft technology when applied to the commuter airline industry. With proper judgement and selection of input variables, the operating costs model was shown to be capable of providing economic insight into other commuter airline system evaluations.

Summerfield, J. R.↗