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At least 199 records · Page 11

Evaluating Acoustic vs. AI-Based Satellite Leak Detection in Aging US Water Infrastructure: A Cost and Energy Savings Analysis

The aging water distribution system in the United States, constructed mainly during the 1970s with some pipes dating back 125 years, is experiencing significant deterioration leading to substantial water losses. Along with the potential for water loss savings, improvements in the distribution system by using leak detection technologies can create net energy and cost savings. In this work, a new framework has been presented to calculate the economic level of leakage within water supply and distribution systems for two primary leak detection technologies (acoustic vs. satellite). In this work, a new framework is presented to calculate the economic level of leakage (ELL) within water supply and distribution systems to support smart infrastructure in smart cities. A case study focused using water audit data from Atlanta, Georgia, compared the costs of two leak mitigation technologies: conventional acoustic leak detection and artificial intelligence–assisted satellite leak detection technology, which employs machine learning algorithms to identify potential leak signatures from satellite imagery. The ELL results revealed that conducting one survey would be optimum for an acoustic survey, whereas the method suggested that it would be expensive to utilize satellite-based leak detection technology. However, results for cumulative financial analysis over a 3-year period for both technologies revealed both to be economically favorable with conventional acoustic leak detection technology generating higher net economic benefits of USD 2.4 million, surpassing satellite detection by 50%. A broader national analysis was conducted to explore the potential benefits of US water infrastructure mirroring the exemplary conditions of Germany and The Netherlands. Achieving similar infrastructure leakage index (ILI) values could result in annual cost savings of $\$4$–$\$4.8$ billion and primary energy savings of 1.6–1.9 TWh. These results demonstrate the value of combining economic modeling with advanced leak detection technologies to support sustainable, cost-efficient water infrastructure strategies in urban environments, contributing to more sustainable smart living outcomes.

acoustic leak detection↗

A Technical-Economic Assessment of Brackish Water Treatment for Fossil Power Plant Cooling with Reduced Environmental Impact

The power sector accounts for approximately 40% of freshwater use in the U.S. Reusing non-traditional water resources is critical for alleviating water stress in the western United States. The purpose of this study is to conduct a techno-economic system analysis to evaluate the potential of brackish water treatment for wet cooling towers at existing thermo-electric generating units (EGUs). It aims to address current knowledge gaps in support of non-traditional water resources planning and the electric power industry's water decision- and policy making. An engineering-economic model was developed and combined with DuPont's water application value engine (WAVE) v1.82 to evaluate the viability of retrofitting reverse osmosis-based brackish water treatment systems to individual existing EGUs and then aggregating the unit-level results to the fleet level. In the base case, brackish water treatment can reduce freshwater consumption of electric generation units by 94–100% while increasing the cost of electric generation by approximately 10% and have marginal impacts on the units' parasitic loads. When zero liquid discharge systems are applied to brackish water brine treatment, the cost of electric generation and freshwater consumption savings and energy penalty to the power plant significantly increase. These costs are even higher than dry cooling deployment in lieu of wet cooling towers. The choice of freshwater savings between brackish water desalination and dry cooling deployment depends greatly on how the concentrated brines are managed. Multiple factors must be considered when supporting decision-making in water management and planning in power sectors, which include non-traditional water quantity and quality as well as trade-offs among technical performance, economics, and environmental impacts.

Wu, Zitao↗

Catalina Repower Feasibility Study: NREL Phases I & II Summary Report

Engineers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) supported Southern California Edison (SCE) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) by conducting technical and economic analyses for energy systems at Santa Catalina (Catalina) Island, which is located 22 miles off the coast of Long Beach, California. This effort was part of a broader Repower Catalina Feasibility Study that was also supported by NV5, an engineering consulting firm and project partner to NREL for this analysis. This document describes NREL’s techno-economic modeling and optimization analysis for the first two phases of this project which focus on supply-side generation and energy storage options for Catalina. SCE’s goal for this analysis is to determine a strategy for electricity generation on Catalina Island that results in lower energy costs, improved energy resiliency, and reduced air emissions. EPA goals for this effort are to reduce emissions of air pollution and encourage renewable energy development on contaminated and formerly contaminated lands when such development is aligned with the community’s vision for the site. Currently, an on-island SCE power plant serves the Catalina Island electrical load with 6 reciprocating diesel generators totaling 9.4 MW; 23 propane-fueled microturbines totaling 1.5 MW; and a 1-MW, 7.2-MWh sodium sulfur battery energy storage system (BESS). In 2017, the electricity consumption on the island was 29.1 GWh, with an average load of 3.3 MW and peak load of approximately 5.5 MW. Considering new environmental standards on diesel generator emissions from California’s South Coast Air Quality Management District, a 60% renewable energy target for 2030 laid out in California’s Senate Bill 100, SCE’s Clean Power Electrification Pathway, and the characteristics of the island’s existing diesel generators, SCE is seeking to evaluate the technical and economic implications of different energy technology options to determine a path forward. Phases I and II of the Repower Catalina Feasibility Study, summarized in this document, evaluated the following: Interconnection with the mainland via an undersea cable; On-island fossil fuel generation, including diesel, propane, and/or liquified natural gas (LNG); On-island renewable energy (RE) technologies, including solar photovoltaics (PV), wind turbines, and wave energy devices; BESS to support the above generation technologies; Initial analysis of the potential impacts of implementing energy efficiency measures. Results indicate strong techno-economic potential for a mix of on-island diesel and/or propane generators, solar PV, BESS, and energy efficiency measures to help SCE and Catalina achieve their goals compliant with California’s emissions and clean energy standards while minimizing electricity life cycle costs (LCC) over the 30-year analysis period. This document summarizes the considerations and findings of Phases I and II, focusing on high-level takeaways from Phase I and more detailed results from Phase II, and discusses a potential path forward for Phase III.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Critical Review of the Circular Economy for Lithium-Ion Batteries and Photovoltaic Modules: Status, Challenges, and Opportunities

To meet net-zero emissions and cost targets for power production, recent analysis indicates that photovoltaic (PV) capacity in the United States could exceed 1 TW by 2050 alongside comparable levels of energy storage capacity, mostly from batteries. For comparison, the total U.S. utility-scale power capacity from all energy sources in 2020 was 1.2 TW (EIA 2022), of which solar satisfied approximately 3% (DOE 2021). With such massive scales of deployment, questions have arisen regarding issues of material supply for manufacturing, end-of-life management of technologies, environmental impacts across the life cycle, and economic costs to both individual consumers and society at large. A set of solutions to address these issues center on the development of a circular economy - shifting from a take-make-waste linear economic model to one that retains the value of materials and products as long as possible, recovering materials at end of life to recirculate back into the economy. With limited global experience, scholars and practitioners have begun to investigate circular economy pathways, focusing on applying novel technologies and analytical methods to fast-growing sectors like renewable energy. This critical review aims to synthesize the growing literature to identify key insights, gaps, and opportunities for research and implementation of a circular economy for two of the leading technologies that enable the transition to a renewable energy economy: solar PV and lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). We apply state-of-the-science systematic literature review procedures to critically analyze over 3,000 publications on the circular economy of solar PV and LIBs, categorizing those that pass a series of objective screens in ways that can illuminate the current state of the art, highlight existing impediments to a circular economy, and recommend future technological and analytical research. We conclude that while neither PV nor LIB industries have reached a circular economy, they are both on a path towards increased circularity. Based on our assessment of the state of current literature and scientific understanding, we recommend research move beyond its prior emphasis on recycling technology development to more comprehensively investigate other CE strategies, more holistically consider economic, environmental and policy aspects of CE strategies, increase leveraging of digital information systems that can support acceleration towards a CE, and to continue to study CE-related aspects of LIB and PV markets.

circular economy↗

Offshore Wind Farm Turbine and Energy Storage Optimization

Abstract This paper evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of repurposing decommissioned offshore oil and gas platforms as electrical substations for offshore wind projects in the U.S. Gulf of America, a region characterized by relatively low and highly variable wind speeds, extensive legacy offshore infrastructure, and exposure to merchant electricity markets. A unified techno-economic framework is developed using the Repurposing Offshore Infrastructure for Continued Energy (ROICE) Economic Model (REM) to integrate Gulfspecific wind resource assessment, commercial wind turbine performance, offshore infrastructure cost modeling, and wholesale electricity market exposure. Gulf wind speed data are vertically extrapolated to turbine hub height and combined with manufacturer power curves to compute annual energy production and capacity factors across a broad portfolio of commercial turbines, enabling identification of turbine designs best suited for low-wind offshore environments. Hourly electricity price data from the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) day-ahead market are incorporated to characterize revenue potential, price volatility, and the temporal alignment between wind generation and market conditions. In addition, a conceptual framework for offshore battery energy storage system (BESS) integration is developed to support future investigation of market-responsive energy shifting at repurposed platforms. Results from the turbine evaluation demonstrate that machines with lower cut-in wind speeds and earlier ‘rated-power’ characteristics significantly outperform larger, industry-standard offshore turbines for the same net power under Gulf wind conditions, underscoring the need for region-specific technology selection. Market analysis further reveals substantial price variability and limited intrinsic alignment between wind production and high-price periods, motivating consideration of operational flexibility mechanisms. While storage optimization is not implemented in this study, the REM framework establishes a transparent and replicable foundation for co-evaluating turbine selection, infrastructure constraints, and market exposure, providing a practical pathway for assessing the potential role of repurposed offshore platforms in enabling economically viable offshore wind development in the Gulf of America.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Development of Additively Manufactured Complex Tools for Autoclave Cure Composites

IACMI Project 4.9, Tooling for Composites with Washout Features Produced by Additive Manufacturing, assembled a team including the industry lead, Ability Composites, NREL and Colorado State University (CSU). Ability Composites had originally expressed interest in alternate methods of producing tooling for composite parts. In follow-up discussions, it became clear that one of the bigger tooling challenges revolved around small production volume composite parts that were tooled on washout material due to the complex geometry. To build an understanding of the potential, both from a technology and a cost perspective, for replacing conventional washout tooling with 3D printed thermoplastic tooling, a number of commercially available dissolvable FDM printing materials were evaluated, leading to tooling representative of commercial articles of interest to Ability Composites. Ultimately, Ability Composites was able to directly compare autoclave processed prepreg composite parts produced on conventional washout tooling to composite parts molded on 3D printed dissolvable tooling produced at CSU. Small, laboratory test specimens were developed to investigate the structural performance of the candidate materials under autoclave processing conditions, which were nominally 121 °C (250 °F) and 345 kPa (50 psi). In addition, several internal structural configurations (infills) were evaluated under autoclave conditions using model materials. The results of these tests indicated that two materials, Stratasys ST 130 and Infinite Materials Solutions Aquasys 180 (AQ 180), were the best candidates, given the specified autoclave processing conditions. ST-130 was slightly more robust than AQ-180; however, the AQ-180 was carried forward as it was dissolvable in water, not requiring the basic solution needed to dissolve ST-130. Based on the preliminary material and 3D printed structures evaluations, larger tools with a truncated square pyramid geometry were created to produce prepreg composite test articles for 3D printed dissolvable tool evaluation under standard autoclave fabrication conditions. Two tools were manufactured using ST-130 and one tool using traditional ceramic washout tooling media. The tools were evaluated for geometric fidelity and surface roughness changes before and after carbon fiber/epoxy prepreg composites were manufactured on the tooling. The autoclave processing did not impact the geometry significantly and was completed at 121 °C and 345 kPa, indicating satisfactory tool performance. The results from surface roughness testing of both the resulting composite and the associated tooling indicated that an adequate surface resulted without the need for a surface sealing step, as was required for the conventional washout tooling. Based on results of the truncated pyramid tests as a basis, ST-130, AQ-120 and AQ-180 materials were carried forward to the tool geometry of interest to Ability Composites. These hollow rectangular bent ducts, which were complex in nature and not extractable after cure, were used to understand the impacts of tool material and thickness. One ST-130 tool was produced as a partially solid part, with an enclosed 40% dense infill region to reduce weight and material use. This was the same approach evaluated in the truncated pyramid portion of the study. This tool was to be envelope vacuum bagged and directly compared to a monolithic tool of conventional washout material. The traditional monolithic ceramic tool was manufactured by Ability composites using CNC-based subtractive methods. An additional five dissolvable polymer tools, manufactured from ST-130, AQ-120, and AQ-180, using a hollow design were 3D printed and used to produce carbon fiber/epoxy composite evaluation articles. These hollow dissolvable tools were expected to be less influenced by the autoclave conditions as the wall was solid and vacuum bagging was inside and outside the tool. This alternative geometry was also evaluated as an option in techno-economic modeling. Print times were reduced from in excess of 3 days to under 30 hours, while surface quality and and tool integrity were substantially improved in the transition from the partially solid tool to the hollow tooling concept. Ability Composites produced autoclave-cured prepreg ducts on each of these tools. The autoclave conditions utilized were more severe than those of the initial trials, reaching temperatures of 160 °C and a pressure of 414 kPa. Under these conditions, the partially solid 3D printed tool with skin and 40% dense infill crushed significantly; however, the thicker ST-130 hollow tool showed good promise, deforming only slightly. The thinner hollow tool walls were unsuccessful as were the other materials. Overall, the hollow tool manufacturing process saved significant amounts of time and material in manufacturing as compared to the solid ducts and produced composite surface quality improvements compared to the traditional washout tooling. The TEM was developed to allow direct comparisons between conventional washout tool manufacturing processes and those developed at CSU. It also allowed for two separate 3D printed tool geometries to be analyzed and compared. In this case, the square bent duct tool geometry was determined to be representative of common washout tools. This geometry was compared with a scaled-up version of it to assess differences in the two manufacturing processes based on tool size. The model was developed to make use of user input in the form of geometry details, process steps, manufacturing parameters, bulk material costs, capital equipment costs, and general costs to calculate overall labor, material, capital equipment, and energy costs per manufactured tool for the conventional and additive manufacturing processes for the two representative geometries. It was also able to estimate step-by-step process times for the manufacturing process and geometries. Based on significant input from Ability Composites and CSU from their knowledge gained from hands-on manufacturing of the 3D printed bent duct tool geometry, costs and process times were calculated for the two manufacturing processes. Results showed that the additive manufacturing techniques developed at CSU can substantially reduce the costs of tool manufacturing by reducing labor times and material usage. This is because additive manufacturing is a relatively hands-off process and allows for the tool design to be optimized to reduce material usage. The disadvantage, however, is that process times for additive manufacturing are significantly longer. The three-dimensional (3D) printing process is slow if tight tolerances are required, but the analysis did show that print times could be reduced with the hollow tool geometry. Also, further advances in additive manufacturing could expedite the process. Costs and process times for the tool washout process were calculated separately. They showed that costs are relatively insignificant when compared to the overall tool manufacturing processes, but with increases in tool size, costs for the conventional manufacturing approach are larger than for additive manufacturing. Again, the washout process for conventional tools is very hands-on, whereas for additively manufactured tools the print medium is dissolved in an automated detergent bath at the sacrifice of process time. The analysis showed that optimizing the additively manufactured tools may also reduce washout times. Overall, Project 4.9 demonstrated that commercially available dissolvable 3D printing materials exist that can be used to produce dissolvable tooling capable of surviving prepreg composites fabrication under autoclave conditions of 121 °C (250 °F) and 345 kPa (50 psi). An alternative hollow dissolvable tool design was developed which was structurally superior to the initial concept and was cost and time effective versus conventional washout tooling. The 3D printed sacrificial tool required no added surface sealing steps prior to composite part layup and cure, offering a significant advantage over the porous conventional washout tooling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Designing Cost‐Effective Carbon Payments to Induce Cellulosic Feedstock Production for Sustainable Aviation Fuel

Perennial bioenergy crops, such as miscanthus and switchgrass, and crop residues have the potential to scale up sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production and mitigate carbon emissions. However, high establishment costs, delayed returns, and risk–return profiles that diverge from those of conventional crops can hinder incentives to adopt bioenergy crops. We develop an economic model that incorporates spatially varying joint yield and price distributions for the multiple crop choices a farmer faces and apply it to examine the incentives for risk-averse, present-biased, and credit-constrained farmers to produce cellulosic feedstocks under various biomass prices. We link this model to a biogeochemical model to quantify the spatially varying carbon mitigation benefits from these feedstocks in the rainfed region of the United States. We also analyze the cost-effectiveness of two carbon payment policies: annual and upfront. We find that risk-averse, present-biased, or credit-constrained farmers prefer to grow the lower-yielding but less risky switchgrass and harvest corn stover instead of the lower carbon, higher-yielding but riskier feedstock miscanthus, resulting in lower SAF production. Upfront carbon payments incentivize higher quantities of less carbon-intensive SAF production by risk-averse, credit-constrained, and present-biased farmers because they offset a part of the establishment costs of miscanthus. We also find that when farmers are credit-constrained, upfront payments are more cost-effective in terms of carbon mitigation per dollar spent. In contrast, annual payments are more cost-effective when farmers can access credit.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Optimizing equity in energy policy interventions: A quantitative decision-support framework for energy justice

This paper presents a quantitative framework to support policy decision-making around equitable energy interventions. By combining sociodemographic and techno-economic models in the energy space, we propose a linear programming model to calculate the optimal portfolio of energy investments that explicitly minimizes the energy burden of a given population of energy insecure households. The model is formulated as a multi-objective optimization suitable to support the decisions on weatherization and deployment of distributed energy resources. We illustrate our methodology with a case study involving a population of 14,043 energy insecure households in Wayne County, Detroit, United States.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Advancing Pumped Thermal Energy Storage Performance and Cost Using Silica Storage Media

Pumped Thermal Energy Storage (PTES) is an electricity storage system that is suitable for long-duration energy storage (10-1000 h) due to its low marginal cost of energy capacity. We present a techno-economic model of a PTES system that uses particle thermal energy storage. Particles have low costs and can be operated over a wide temperature range leading to increased efficiency and reduced costs compared to other PTES designs. We show how the round-trip efficiency, specific power output, capital cost, and levelized cost of storage (LCOS) depend on parameters such as the pressure ratio, heat exchanger approach temperature and pressure loss, and maximum temperature. We compare particle-PTES (P-PTES) performance to PTES which uses liquid thermal energy storage - i.e. molten salt hot storage and methanol cold storage (MS-PTES). We find that using silica particles for storage advances PTES technology: P-PTES can be operated at higher maximum temperatures than MS-PTES. Furthermore, P-PTES can achieve lower approach temperatures in the heat exchangers than MS-PTES without increasing capital costs, because P-PTES uses direct-contact heat transfer in fluidized bed heat exchangers. As a result, we find that P-PTES systems achieve higher round-trip efficiency than MS-PTES (66 % versus 57 %) and lower LCOS (e.g. 0.115 +- 0.03 $/kWhe versus 0.171 +- 0.04 $/kWhe for 10 h discharge). The low cost of particles and containment means that P-PTES can provide long-duration energy storage at low capital cost per unit energy capacity. For example, the total capital cost per unit energy reduces from 245 $/kWhe at 10 h to 38 $/kWhe at 100 h. These costs are considerably lower than MS-PTES (72 $/kWhe at 100 h) and also outcompete current and future Li-ion battery system projections (100-265 $/kWhe).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A framework for challenges and solutions in biodesign research

The bioeconomy represents an advanced economic paradigm that builds upon previous agricultural, industrial, and digital economic models. It seeks to tackle critical global challenges such as resource scarcity, escalating healthcare demands, and environmental degradation. At the heart of the bioeconomy is biomanufacturing, which uses natural or engineered enzymes or cell factories built from ​biological components like promoters, terminators, regulatory sequences, reporters, and functional genes into various chassis hosts (including animal, microbial, plant, and de novo systems) to create products such as food, energy, medicine, materials, chemicals, and engineered tissue/organs. An enabler of biomanufacturing is biodesign – also known as biosystems design and closely related to synthetic biology or engineering biology. This interdisciplinary field aims to understand and predictably modify existing life forms or create entirely new biological entities/systems using rational engineering strategies and automated design tools. Through these capabilities, biodesign supports the discovery, optimization, and creation of efficient platforms for biomanufacturing.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A comprehensive techno-eco-assessment of CO 2 enhanced oil recovery projects using a machine-learning assisted workflow

Carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 -EOR) projects not only extract residual oil but also sequestrate CO 2 in the depleted reservoirs. Here, this study develops a machine-learning-based workflow to co-optimize the hydrocarbon recovery, CO 2 sequestration volume and project net present value (NPV) simultaneously. Considering the trade-off relationships among the objective functions, support vector regression with Gaussian kernel (Gaussian- SVR) proxies are coupled with multi-objective particle swarm optimization (PSO) protocol and generate Pareto optimal solutions. Taking advantage of the high computational efficacy of the proxy model, economic uncertainties introduced by tax credits, capital costs and oil price are investigated by this study. The results indicate that the tax incentive policy (Section 45Q) plays a vital role in enhancing the economic returns of CO 2 -EOR projects, especially under the depression of crude oil market. The proposed workflow has been successfully implemented to optimize a water alternative CO 2 (CO 2 -WAG) injection project in a depleted oil sand in the US. The optimization results yield an incremental oil production of 15.8 MM STB and 1.37 MM metric tons of CO 2 storage in a 20-year development strategy, with the highest project NPV to be 205.6 MM US dollars.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Comprehensive assessment of metrology techniques for heliostat efficiency and performance evaluation

Concentrating solar power plants, specifically central receiver type systems and their heliostat field, are struggling with negative reputation in the USA, due to perceived underperformance and reliability issues. This is in part due to a lack of standards for performance assessment as well as overly simplified techno-economical models. A better understanding of influences and losses along the solar radiation path from the sun, across the solar collector to the receiver, increases the fidelity of heliostat efficiency assessment as well as solar field performance predictions. Such data are currently scarce and require a complete set of metrology capabilities to evaluate direct solar irradiance, sun shape, atmospheric attenuation, reflectance, collector shape, slope errors and total beam dispersion. In preparation for establishing a 3rd party metrology platform in collaboration with Sandia National Labs, NLR conducted a scoping study on available metrology. We present an extensive overview of techniques and commercial systems for each category. Our work includes an analysis to increase understanding of strengths and limitations of the many techniques used for surface shape and slope measurement. This applies to a controlled, indoor or outdoor laboratory environment assessing a single heliostat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Future Spatially Explicit Patterns of Land Transitions in the United States With Multiple Stressors

Climate change, income and population growth, and changing diets are major drivers of the global food system with implications for land use change. Land use in the U.S. will be affected directly by local and regional forces and indirectly through international trade. In order to investigate the effects of several potential forces on land use changes in the U.S., we advanced capabilities in representing the interactions between natural and human systems by linking a multisectoral and multiregional socio-economic model of the world economy to a model that downscales land use to a 0.5°grid scale. This enables us to translate regional projections of future land use into higher-resolution representations of time-evolving land cover (effectively spatially explicit land use transitions). We applied the framework over the U.S., with a particular interest in the Mississippi River Basin and its four sub-basins, to consider how a range of global drivers affect land use and cover in the target regions. Our results show that under scenarios of high pressure on the world food system a comparative advantage in livestock production amplifies the recent trend toward less cropland and more pastures in the U.S. Under low pressures on the world food system agricultural land is used less intensively. However, there can be key differences among the various land-use transitions at the sub- basin scale. Overall, these results highlighted the need for high resolution details to explicitly understand the implications of land use change on environmental impacts such as carbon storage, soil erosion, chemical use, hydrology, and water quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Agrivoltaic Grazing Systems for a Sustainable Future: A Multi‐Disciplinary Review & Gap Analysis

Solar photovoltaics (PV) is the fastest growing source of electricity in the world, however, its expansion has raised concerns about the displacement of agriculture and the degradation of rangeland ecosystems. This has prompted research and development of multi-land-use systems that co-prioritize energy production alongside agriculture, commonly referred to as agrivoltaics. Currently, agrivoltaic grazing (also called solar grazing) is one of the most common forms of these systems. However, peer-reviewed research on these systems is limited. This review synthesizes research on agrivoltaic grazing systems, drawing upon literature addressing agrivoltaics broadly and considering relevant literature in adjacent fields of study. Based on this review, we identify six key gaps and priority directions for future research. These include foundational fieldwork to characterize the layered ecological impacts of solar PV and grazing and understand PV-livestock integration from both an animal welfare and a PV infrastructure perspective. This will facilitate the development of biogeochemical and economic models that improve our predictive capacity and ability to compare system designs. We also identify gaps in understanding the human aspects of these systems and emphasize the importance of utilizing collaborative research methods and increasing research on the social dimensions of agrivoltaic grazing systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Ozone pollution reduction partially offsets the negative impact of climate change mitigation efforts on global hunger

Studies warning of the potential negative effects of climate mitigation on food security through the competing use of land for bioenergy and afforestation have overlooked the impact of reduced ozone and its potential enhancement of crop yields. Here we use six global agro-economic models to compare the impacts of climate change with climate mitigation policy and ozone reduction on agriculture. We find that ozone reduction could reduce the negative impact of a 1.5 °C-consistent climate change mitigation policy on global hunger by 15% in 2050. Sub-Saharan Africa and India, where hunger is most severe, account for 56% of this global reduction. Our findings indicate that the negative effects of climate mitigation on global hunger could be partially offset by the ozone reduction impact.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Heat stress on agricultural workers exacerbates crop impacts of climate change

Abstract The direct impacts of climate change on crop yields and human health are individually well-studied, but the interaction between the two have received little attention. Here we analyze the consequences of global warming for agricultural workers and the crops they cultivate using a global economic model (GTAP) with explicit treatment of the physiological impacts of heat stress on humans’ ability to work. Based on two metrics of heat stress and two labor functions, combined with a meta-analysis of crop yields, we provide an analysis of climate, impacts both on agricultural labor force, as well as on staple crop yields, thereby accounting for the interacting effect of climate change on both land and labor. Here we analyze the two sets of impacts on staple crops, while also expanding the labor impacts to highlight the potential importance on non-staple crops. We find, worldwide, labor and yield impacts within staple grains are equally important at +3 ∘ C warming, relative to the 1986–2005 baseline. Furthermore, the widely overlooked labor impacts are dominant in two of the most vulnerable regions: sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. In those regions, heat stress with 3 ∘ C global warming could reduce labor capacity in agriculture by 30%–50%, increasing food prices and requiring much higher levels of employment in the farm sector. The global welfare loss at this level of warming could reach $136 billion, with crop prices rising by 5%, relative to baseline.

de Lima, Cicero Z. (ORCID:0000000297005435)↗

Supplementing biofuel mandates with a carbon mitigation policy can lead to water quality co-benefits

Biofuel mandates can impact the environment in multiple ways that may be positive or negative, including affecting life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by displacing fossil fuels, affecting soil carbon stocks due to accompanying land use change, and water quality due to changes in fertilizer requirements and the mix of crops used as feedstocks. To achieve desired environmental outcomes in the presence of a biofuel mandate, additional policy instruments must be adopted to supplement the mandate. We develop an integrated and spatially explicit ecosystem-economic modeling framework to analyze the cost-effectiveness of alternative policies to achieve desired targets for GHG emissions reduction from the agricultural and fuel sectors in the USA and nitrate leaching reduction in the Gulf of Mexico below the levels that would be achieved by a corn ethanol and/or a cellulosic ethanol mandate in the USA. We find that while a corn ethanol mandate lowers GHG emissions, it increases nitrate leaching due to the expansion of corn production; a cellulosic ethanol mandate lowers both GHG emissions and nitrate leaching relative to a corn ethanol mandate, but the additional carbon and nitrate prices are needed to achieve anticipated GHG reduction and nitrate reduction targets. We also find that accompanying a biofuel mandate with a GHG reduction target alone leads to substantial nitrate reduction co-benefits, but a nitrate reduction target alone is less effective in reducing GHG emissions. Combining a GHG standard with a nitrate standard can achieve GHG and nitrate reduction targets at lower carbon and nitrate prices as compared to implementing each of these policies independently. Furthermore, our findings show that disregarding policy co-benefits can overestimate the GHG and nitrate prices needed to achieve policy targets and higher policy costs.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗