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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

Thermosphere Global Time Response to Geomagnetic Storms Caused by Coronal Mass Ejections

We investigate, for the first time with a spatial superposed epoch analysis study, the thermosphere global time response to 159 geomagnetic storms caused by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed in the solar wind at Earth's orbit during the period of September 2001 to September 2011. The thermosphere neutral mass density is obtained from the CHAMP (CHAllenge Mini-Satellite Payload) and GRACE (Gravity Recovery Climate Experiment) spacecraft. All density measurements are intercalibrated against densities computed by the Jacchia-Bowman 2008 empirical model under the regime of very low geomagnetic activity. We explore both the effects of the pre-CME shock impact on the thermosphere and of the storm main phase onset by taking their times of occurrence as zero epoch times (CME impact and interplanetary magnetic field Bz southward turning) for each storm. We find that the shock impact produces quick and transient responses at the two high-latitude regions with minimal propagation toward lower latitudes. In both cases, thermosphere is heated in very high latitude regions within several minutes. The Bz southward turning of the storm onset has a fast heating manifestation at the two high-latitude regions, and it takes approximately 3 h for that heating to propagate down to equatorial latitudes and to globalize in the thermosphere. This heating propagation is presumably accomplished, at least in part, with traveling atmospheric disturbances and complex meridional wind structures. Current models use longer lag times in computing thermosphere density dynamics during storms. Our results suggest that the thermosphere response time scales are shorter and should be accordingly adjusted in thermospheric empirical models.

mass ejections↗
NASA NTRS2018

Forecasting the Arrival Time of Coronal Mass Ejections: Analysis of the CCMC CME Scoreboard

Accurate forecasting of the properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as they approach Earth is now recognized as an important strategic objective for both NOAA and NASA. The time of arrival of such events is a key parameter, one that had been anticipated to be relatively straightforward to constrain. In this study, we analyze forecasts submitted to the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center over the last 6 years to answer the following questions: (1) How well do these models forecast the arrival time of CME-driven shocks? (2) What are the uncertainties associated with these forecasts? (3) Which model(s) perform best? (4) Have the models become more accurate during the past 6 years? We analyze all forecasts made by 32 models from 2013 through mid-2018, and additionally focus on 28 events, all of which were forecasted by six models. We find that the models are generally able to predict CME-shock arrival times, in an average sense, to within ±10 hr, but with standard deviations often exceeding 20 hr. The best performers, on the other hand, maintained a mean error (bias) of 1 hr, a mean absolute error of 13 hr, and a precision (standard deviation) of 15 hr. Finally, there is no evidence that the forecasts have become more accurate during this interval. We discuss the intrinsic simplifications of thevarious models analyzed, the limitations of this investigation, and suggest possible paths to improve these forecasts in the future.

space weather↗
NASA NTRS2022

Coronal Polarimetry: Determining the Magnetic Origins of Coronal Mass Ejections

Synopsis: The mechanism for the release of stored magnetic energy in solar eruptions remains a major unsolved problem of Heliophysics. Choosing between triggers requires knowledge of pre-eruptive magnetic fields (B). Although linear polarization in visible/infrared (VIR) coronal emission lines reveals intriguing clues about coronal mass ejection (CME) precursor topology, small telescope apertures limit current capability for measuring vector field. Current coronal observations are insufficient to diagnose 3D coronal magnetic fields in CME precursors. Coronal cavities are the ideal candidates for CME precursor studies. BLOS in cavities is a direct measure of stored magnetic free energy, and the presence and location of topological X-points (reconnection locations) and O-points (circulation of B about axis) distinguish predictions of the flux rope-torus-instability and sheared-arcade-breakout CME models. - Finding: Coronal cavities are ubiquitous throughout the solar cycle, erupt as CMEs, and have coronal polarimetric signatures that distinguish between model predictions. - Recommendation: Coronal cavities should be targeted in a comprehensive multiwavelength study of CME precursors & associated eruption-driving mechanisms. Large ground-based VIR telescopes can measure both coronal magnetic field topology and strength through a combination of the saturated Hanle and BLOS -sensitive Zeeman effects. - Finding: The 4m Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope (DKIST) and proposed 1.5m Coronal Solar Magnetism Observatory Large Coronagraph (COSMO-LC) make a major leap forward in VIR coronal sensitivity, enabling measurement of vector B. - Recommendation: A dedicated coronal synoptic telescope with a large field-of-view (i.e., COSMO-LC) is needed to identify the dominant CME driving mechanisms, by measuring coronal magnetic fields from precursor state into eruption. In the UV, a new opportunity has arisen to make use of the strong H I Lyman-α coronal line, which obtains a measurement of B that is independent of the Zeeman effect. - Finding: Small-telescope spectropolarimetric capability in the unsaturated Hanle regime provides an independent and complementary coronal magnetic diagnostic to large ground-based telescope measurements. - Recommendation: The proposed 12-cm Coronal Lyman-α Resonance Observatory (CLARO) spectropolarimetric coronagraph demonstrates a path forward for space-based observations of the coronal magnetic field that should be incorporated into future missions away from the Sun-Earth line (e.g., COMPLETE).

magnetic energy↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Spectroscopic Measurement of High Velocity Spray Plasma from an M-Class Flare and Coronal Mass Ejection

The M1.5-class flare and associated coronal mass ejection (CME) of 16 February 2011 was observed with the Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer on board the Hinode spacecraft. Spray plasma associated with the CME is found to exhibit a Doppler blue-shift of 850 km s−1 – one of the largest values reported from spectroscopy of the solar disk and inner corona. The observation is unusual in that the emission line (Fe xii 193.51 Å) is not observed directly, but the Doppler shift is so large that the blue-shifted component appears in a wavelength window at 192.82 Å, intended to observe lines of O v, Fe xi and Ca xvii. The Fe xii 195.12 Å emission line is used as a proxy for the rest component of 193.51 Å. The observation highlights the risks of using narrow wavelength windows for spectrometer observations when observing highly-dynamic solar phenomena. The consequences of large Doppler shifts for ultraviolet solar spectrometers, including the upcoming Multi-slit Solar Explorer (MUSE) mission, are discussed.

Solar atmosphere↗
NASA NTRS2023

A Data-driven, Physics-based Transport Model of Solar Energetic Particles Accelerated by Coronal Mass Ejection Shocks Propagating through the Solar Coronal and Heliospheric Magnetic Fields

In an effort to develop computational tools for predicting radiation hazards from solar energetic particles (SEPs), we have created a data-driven physics-based particle transport model to calculate the injection, acceleration, and propagation of SEPs from coronal mass ejection (CME) shocks traversing through the solar corona and interplanetary magnetic fields. The model runs on an input of corona and heliospheric plasma and magnetic field configuration from a magnetohydrodynamic model driven by solar photospheric magnetic field measurements superposed with observed CME shocks determined from coronagraph images. SEP source particles are injected at the shock using the result of diffusive shock acceleration formulation from a characteristic obliquity-dependent injection from a heated solar wind thermal tail population. With several advanced computation techniques involving stochastic simulation and integration, the model obtains the particle intensity at any location in interplanetary space through the rigorous solution to the time-dependent 5D focus transport equation in the phase space that includes perpendicular diffusion. We apply the model to the 2011 November 3 CME event. The calculation results reproduce multispacecraft SEP observations at Earth and STEREO-B reasonably well without normalization of particle flux. The observations at STEREO-A can be reproduced by rescaling particle energy or modified energy dependence of particle diffusion coefficients. This circumsolar SEP event seen by spacecraft at Earth, STEREO-A, and STEREO-B at widely separated longitudes can be explained by diffusive shock acceleration by a single CME shock with a moderate speed.

Solar energetic particles↗
NASA NTRS2023

Type II Radio Bursts and Their Association With Coronal Mass Ejections in Solar Cycles 23 and 24

Context. Meter-wavelength type II solar radio bursts are thought to be the signatures of shock-accelerated electrons in the corona. Studying these bursts can give information about the initial kinematics, dynamics, and energetics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the absence of white-light observations. Aims. We investigate the occurrence of type II bursts in solar cycles 23 and 24 and their association with CMEs. We also explore whether type II bursts might occur in the absence of a CME. Methods. We performed a statistical analysis of type II bursts that occurred between 200 and 25 MHz in solar cycles 23 and 24 and determined the temporal association of these radio bursts with CMEs. We categorized the CMEs based on their linear speed and angular width and studied the distribution of type II bursts with fast (≥500 km s−1 ), slow (<500 km s−1), wide (≥60◦), and narrow (<60◦) CMEs. We explored the dependence of type II bursts occurrence on the phases of the solar cycle. Results. Our analysis shows that during solar cycles 23 and 24, 768 and 435 type II bursts occurred, respectively. Of these, 79% were associated with CMEs in solar cycle 23, and 95% were associated with CMEs in solar cycle 24. However, only 4% and 3% of the total number of CMEs were accompanied by type II bursts in solar cycle 23 and 24, respectively. Most of the type II bursts in both cycles were related to fast and wide CMEs (48%). We also determined the typical drift rate and duration for type II bursts, which is 0.06 MHz s−1 and 9 min. Our results suggest that type II bursts dominate at heights ≈1.7−2.3±0.3 R . A clear majority have an onset height around 1.7 ± 0.3 R assuming the four-fold Newkirk model. Conclusions. The results indicate that most of the type II bursts had a white-light CME counterpart, but a few type II bursts lacked a clear CME association. There were more CMEs in cycle 24 than in cycle 23. However, cycle 24 contained fewer type II radio bursts than cycle 23. The onset heights of type II bursts and their association with wide CMEs reported in this study indicate that the early lateral expansion of CMEs may play a key role in the generation of these radio bursts.

Sun: activity↗