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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Radar-Based Bayesian Estimation of Ice Crystal Growth Parameters within a Microphysical Model

The potential for polarimetric Doppler radar measurements to improve predictions of ice microphysical processes within an idealized model–observational framework is examined. In an effort to more rigorously constrain ice growth processes (e.g., vapor deposition) with observations of natural clouds, a novel framework is developed to compare simulated and observed radar measurements, coupling a bulk adaptive-habit model of vapor growth to a polarimetric radar forward model. Bayesian inference on key microphysical model parameters is then used, via a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, to estimate the probability distribution of the model parameters. The statistical formalism of this method allows for robust estimates of the optimal parameter values, along with (non-Gaussian) estimates of their uncertainty. To demonstrate this framework, observations from Department of Energy radars in the Arctic during a case of pristine ice precipitation are used to constrain vapor deposition parameters in the adaptive habit model. The resulting parameter probability distributions provide physically plausible changes in ice particle density and aspect ratio during growth. A lack of direct constraint on the number concentration produces a range of possible mean particle sizes, with the mean size inversely correlated to number concentration. Consistency is found between the estimated inherent growth ratio and independent laboratory measurements, increasing confidence in the parameter PDFs and demonstrating the effectiveness of the radar measurements in constraining the parameters. Furthermore, the combined Doppler and polarimetric observations produce the highest-confidence estimates of the parameter PDFs, with the Doppler measurements providing a stronger constraint for this case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterization and Valuation of the Uncertainty of Calibrated Parameters in Microsimulation Decision Models

We evaluated the implications of different approaches to characterize the uncertainty of calibrated parameters of microsimulation decision models (DMs) and quantified the value of such uncertainty in decision making. We calibrated the natural history model of CRC to simulated epidemiological data with different degrees of uncertainty and obtained the joint posterior distribution of the parameters using a Bayesian approach. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) on all the model parameters with different characterizations of the uncertainty of the calibrated parameters. We estimated the value of uncertainty of the various characterizations with a value of information analysis. We conducted all analyses using high-performance computing resources running the Extreme-scale Model Exploration with Swift (EMEWS) framework. The posterior distribution had a high correlation among some parameters. The parameters of the Weibull hazard function for the age of onset of adenomas had the highest posterior correlation of -0.958. When comparing full posterior distributions and the maximum-a-posteriori estimate of the calibrated parameters, there is little difference in the spread of the distribution of the CEA outcomes with a similar expected value of perfect information (EVPI) of $\$$653 and $\$$685, respectively, at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $\$$66,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Ignoring correlation on the calibrated parameters’ posterior distribution produced the broadest distribution of CEA outcomes and the highest EVPI of $\$$809 at the same WTP threshold. Different characterizations of the uncertainty of calibrated parameters affect the expected value of eliminating parametric uncertainty on the CEA. Ignoring inherent correlation among calibrated parameters on a PSA overestimates the value of uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: calibration of lens sample redshift distributions using clustering redshifts with BOSS/eBOSS

ABSTRACT We present clustering redshift measurements for Dark Energy Survey (DES) lens sample galaxies used in weak gravitational lensing and galaxy clustering studies. To perform these measurements, we cross-correlate with spectroscopic galaxies from the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation Survey (BOSS) and its extension, eBOSS. We validate our methodology in simulations, including a new technique to calibrate systematic errors that result from the galaxy clustering bias, and we find that our method is generally unbiased in calibrating the mean redshift. We apply our method to the data, and estimate the redshift distribution for 11 different photometrically selected bins. We find general agreement between clustering redshift and photometric redshift estimates, with differences on the inferred mean redshift found to be below |Δz| = 0.01 in most of the bins. We also test a method to calibrate a width parameter for redshift distributions, which we found necessary to use for some of our samples. Our typical uncertainties on the mean redshift ranged from 0.003 to 0.008, while our uncertainties on the width ranged from 4 to 9 per cent. We discuss how these results calibrate the photometric redshift distributions used in companion papers for DES Year 3 results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Updimensioning strategy derived from synthetic equiaxed grain structures for approximating 3D grain size distributions from 2D visualizations with 1D parameters

We generated synthetic equiaxed grain structures using computer graphics software to explore the relationship between various grain size determination methods and true three-dimensional (3D) grain diameters. Mirroring grain measurement techniques, the synthetic 3D grain structures are imaged as 2D micrographs which are measured to yield 1D grain size parameters. Synthetic grain structures provide data at a mass scale and permit exploration of both polished and fractured surface micrographs, revealing one-to-one correspondence between exposed 2D grain cross-sections and individual 3D grains. Analysis of this correspondence yielded a procedure to approximate 3D equiaxed grain size and volume distributions based on the mode of the 2D fractograph grain size distribution. The 3D approximation procedure is shown to be less susceptible to different imaging conditions that affect small, undiscernible grains compared to the standard planimetric and linear intercept methods, which by design also tend to underestimate the 3D grain diameter. The procedure requires larger sample sizes to lower variance and a deeper analysis which could become more practical with machine learning (ML) models for grain boundary segmentation, which synthetic grain structures can help train. This work lays the foundation for analyzing other grain distributions such as columnar and composite grains in similar depth.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accelerating astronomical and cosmological inference with preconditioned Monte Carlo

ABSTRACT We introduce preconditioned Monte Carlo (PMC), a novel Monte Carlo method for Bayesian inference that facilitates efficient sampling of probability distributions with non-trivial geometry. PMC utilizes a Normalizing Flow (NF) in order to decorrelate the parameters of the distribution and then proceeds by sampling from the preconditioned target distribution using an adaptive Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) scheme. The results produced by PMC include samples from the posterior distribution and an estimate of the model evidence that can be used for parameter inference and model comparison, respectively. The aforementioned framework has been thoroughly tested in a variety of challenging target distributions achieving state-of-the-art sampling performance. In the cases of primordial feature analysis and gravitational wave inference, PMC is approximately 50 and 25 times faster, respectively, than nested sampling (NS). We found that in higher dimensional applications, the acceleration is even greater. Finally, PMC is directly parallelisable, manifesting linear scaling up to thousands of CPUs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimal experimental design for prediction based on push-forward probability measures

Incorporating experimental data is essential for increasing the credibility of simulation-aided decision making and design. This paper presents a method which uses a computational model to guide the optimal acquisition of experimental data to produce data-informed predictions of quantities of interest (QoI). Many strategies for optimal experimental design (OED) select data that maximize some utility that measures the reduction in uncertainty of uncertain model parameters, for example the expected information gain between prior and posterior distributions of these parameters. In this paper, we seek to maximize the expected information gained from the pushforward of an initial (prior) density to the push-forward of the updated (posterior) density through the parameter-to-prediction map. The formulation presented is based upon the solution of a specific class of stochastic inverse problems which seeks a probability density that is consistent with the model and the data in the sense that the push-forward of this density through the parameter-to-observable map matches a target density on the observable data. While this stochastic inverse problem forms the mathematical basis for our approach, we develop a one-step algorithm, focused on push-forward probability measures, that leverages inference-for-prediction to bypass constructing the solution to the stochastic inverse problem. A number of numerical results are presented to demonstrate the utility of this optimal experimental design for prediction and facilitate comparison of our approach with traditional OED.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Crystal Structure of Moganite and Its Anisotropic Atomic Displacement Parameters Determined by Synchrotron X-ray Diffraction and X-ray/Neutron Pair Distribution Function Analyses

The crystal structure of moganite from the Mogán formation on Gran Canaria has been re-investigated using high-resolution synchrotron X-ray diffraction (XRD) and X-ray/neutron pair distribution function (PDF) analyses. Our study for the first time reports the anisotropic atomic displacement parameters (ADPs) of a natural moganite. Rietveld analysis of synchrotron XRD data determined the crystal structure of moganite with the space group I2/a. The refined unit-cell parameters are a = 8.7363(8), b = 4.8688(5), c = 10.7203(9) Å, and β = 90.212(4)°. The ADPs of Si and O in moganite were obtained from X-ray and neutron PDF analyses. The shapes and orientations of the anisotropic ellipsoids determined from X-ray and neutron measurements are similar. The anisotropic ellipsoids for O extend along planes perpendicular to the Si-Si axis of corner-sharing SiO4 tetrahedra, suggesting precession-like movement. Neutron PDF result confirms the occurrence of OH over some of the tetrahedral sites. We postulate that moganite nanomineral is stable with respect to quartz in hypersaline water. The ADPs of moganite show a similar trend as those of quartz determined by single-crystal XRD. In short, the combined methods can provide high-quality structural parameters of moganite nanomineral, including its ADPs and extra OH position at the surface. This approach can be used as an alternative means for solving the structures of crystals that are not large enough for single-crystal XRD measurements, such as fine-grained and nanocrystalline minerals formed in various geological environments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of a Comprehensive Two-Phase Flow Database for the Validation of NEK-2P

Three-dimensional (3-D) two-phase Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes are emerging as a powerful and potentially practical tool for applications in which detailed local flow information is needed. However, two-phase flow models and associated closure relations are not well established for CFD applications, which is partly due to the lack of high-quality validation data. The main objective of this work is to develop a comprehensive database of two-phase flows that can be used to validate two-phase CFD codes such as NEK-2P. In this project, four advanced local measurement systems, including Particle Image Velocimetry and Planar Laser-Induced Fluorescence (PIV-PLIF), high-speed imaging, x-ray densitometry, and multi-sensor conductivity probe are employed to measure the local two-phase flow parameters of both gas and liquid phases. By combining these techniques, the local void fraction, bubble velocity, interfacial area concentration, bubble frequency, liquid velocity, turbulence intensity, etc., in various two-phase flow regimes can be obtained. These local measurement techniques are first used in a 25.4 mm circular pipe test section. Seven air-water two-phase flow conditions spanning the bubbly, slug, churn-turbulent, and annular flow regimes are measured in this facility. The obtained database contains the radial profiles of both gas- and liquid-phase parameters at three axial locations along the test section. The second facility used in this work contains a 30 mm × 10 mm rectangular test section, in which three two-phase flow and two single-phase flow conditions are measured. Two-dimensional distributions of local two-phase flow parameters in the cross-sectional plane are measured in this facility at three axial locations as well. A facility featuring a 3×3 electrically heated rod bundle is also designed and being constructed in this project. This facility is specially designed for optical measurements and is expected to provide high-quality boiling data in the future. Preliminary analyses have been performed for the data taken in the 25.4 mm circular pipe. Both center-peaked and wall-peaked void fraction profiles have been observed in the data depending on the two-phase flow conditions and/or developing lengths. The 1-D drift-flux model was evaluated with the newly obtained datasets, in which both gas- and liquid-phases data were directly measured. The distribution parameter model has been optimized based on a new void-profile classification method proposed in this study. The optimized drift-flux model shows a significant improvement in predicting both gas velocity and void fraction. The measured liquid-phase turbulence was used to benchmark Sato’s turbulence model considering the bubble-induced shear stress for the three tested bubbly flows. The benchmark results showed good agreement between the PIV measurements and model predictions. In the bubbly flows tested that have low void fractions less than 3%, the effect of the bubble-induced turbulence was found not significant. However, the bubble-induced shear stress becomes important with the increase of the void fraction. The Conjugate Heat Transfer (CHT) model was developed and implemented in NEK-2P. This model allows the coupled simulation of the solid domain and two-phase fluid domain, allowing the specification of realistic boundary conditions. The CHT implementation was verified first with non-boiling simulations. The predicted temperatures in the fluid domain were shown to be identical in simulations with or without the CHT model. The CHT model was then validated through simulations of three Becker benchmark CHF tests performed under both Dryout (DO) and Departure from Nucleate Boiling (DNB) conditions. Reasonably good agreement was obtained between calculated wall temperatures and corresponding experimental data.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fast Modular Reactor Nuclear Design Parameters of Fuel Cycle and Power Distributions

This paper describes conceptual design of a 112 MW thermal (50 MW electric) Fast Modular Reactor (FMR) system operating at 7 MPa with inlet/outlet temperatures of 509/800 ºC. The reactor system includes the reactor core, fuel assemblies, fuel rods, reactor internals, reflector, neutron control system, flow control, and structural components. The nuclear design and analysis were conducted to search for a baseline core with a cycle length greater than 8-year and the power peaking factor less than 1.5 by adjusting the fuel assembly, reactor core, and reflector configurations. The neutronics calculations of the baseline core showed that a refueling interval of 9-year is achieved with a total peaking factor of 1.47 and a fuel rod average linear power of 3.6 kW/m.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fast modular reactor nuclear design parameters of fuel cycle and power distributions

This paper describes conceptual design of a 112 MW thermal (50 MW electric) Fast Modular Reactor (FMR) system operating at 7 MPa with inlet/outlet temperatures of 509/800 Celsius degrees. The reactor system includes the reactor core, fuel assemblies, fuel rods, reactor internals, reflector, neutron control system, flow control, and structural components. The nuclear design and analysis were conducted to search for a baseline core with a cycle length greater than 8-year and the power peaking factor less than 1.5 by adjusting the fuel assembly, reactor core, and reflector configurations. The neutron transport calculations of the baseline core showed that a refueling interval of 9-year is achieved with a total peaking factor of 1.47 and a fuel rod average linear power of 3.6 kW/m. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven surrogate modeling of hPIC ion energy-angle distributions for high-dimensional sensitivity analysis of plasma parameters' uncertainty

In this work, we present a data-driven strategy for effective construction of a surrogate model in high-dimensional parameter space for the ion energy-angle distribution (IEAD) output of hPIC simulations of plasma-surface interactions. The methodology is based on a bin-by-bin least-squares fitting of the IEAD in the parameter space. The fitting is performed in a transformed coordinate system to normalize the IEAD, and it employs sparse grids for sampling the parameter space to overcome sampling challenges in high dimensions. The surrogate model is significantly cheaper computationally than direct hPIC simulations yet maintains high fidelity to them, providing a fast emulator for hPIC simulations. Sensitivity analysis based on the surrogate model is utilized to characterize the dependence of the ion impact angle and energy moments on the physical parameters.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Solving Stochastic Inverse Problems for Property–Structure Linkages Using Data-Consistent Inversion and Machine Learning

Determining process–structure–property linkages is one of the key objectives in material science, and uncertainty quantification plays a critical role in understanding both process–structure and structure–property linkages. In this work, we seek to learn a distribution of microstructure parameters that are consistent in the sense that the forward propagation of this distribution through a crystal plasticity finite element model matches a target distribution on materials properties. This stochastic inversion formulation infers a distribution of acceptable/consistent microstructures, as opposed to a deterministic solution, which expands the range of feasible designs in a probabilistic manner. Furthermore, to solve this stochastic inverse problem, we employ a recently developed uncertainty quantification framework based on push-forward probability measures, which combines techniques from measure theory and Bayes’ rule to define a unique and numerically stable solution. This approach requires making an initial prediction using an initial guess for the distribution on model inputs and solving a stochastic forward problem. To reduce the computational burden in solving both stochastic forward and stochastic inverse problems, we combine this approach with a machine learning Bayesian regression model based on Gaussian processes and demonstrate the proposed methodology on two representative case studies in structure–property linkages.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics consistent machine learning framework for inverse modeling with applications to ICF capsule implosions

In high energy density physics (HEDP) and inertial confinement fusion (ICF), predictive modeling is complicated by uncertainty in parameters that characterize various aspects of the modeled system, such as those characterizing material properties, equation of state (EOS), opacities, and initial conditions. Typically, however, these parameters are not directly observable. What is observed instead is a time sequence of radiographic projections using X-rays. In this work, we define a set of sparse hydrodynamic features derived from the outgoing shock profile and outer material edge, which can be obtained from radiographic measurements, to directly infer such parameters. Our machine learning (ML)-based methodology involves a pipeline of two architectures, a radiograph-to-features network (R2FNet) and a features-to-parameters network (F2PNet), that are trained independently and later combined to approximate a posterior distribution for the parameters from radiographs. We show that the machine learning architectures are able to accurately infer initial conditions and EOS parameters, and that the estimated parameters can be used in a hydrodynamics code to obtain density fields, shocks, and material interfaces that satisfy thermodynamic and hydrodynamic consistency. Finally, we demonstrate that features resulting from an unknown EOS model can be successfully mapped onto parameters of a chosen analytical EOS model, implying that network predictions are learning physics, with a degree of invariance to the underlying choice of EOS model. To the best of our knowledge, our framework is the first demonstration of recovering both thermodynamic and hydrodynamic consistent density fields from noisy radiographs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Uncertainties in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Hazard Modeling Using Synthetic Storms

Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall hazard assessment is subject to the bias in TC climatology estimation from climate simulations or synthetic downscaling. In this study, we investigate the uncertainty in TC rainfall hazard assessment induced by this bias using both rain gauge and radar observations and synthetic-storm-model-coupled TC rainfall simulations. We identify the storm’s maximum intensity, impact duration, and minimal distance to the site to be the three most important storm parameters for TC rainfall hazard, and the relationship between the important storm parameters and TC rainfall can be well captured by a physics-based TC rainfall model. The uncertainty in the synthetic rainfall hazard induced by the bias in TC climatology can be largely explained by the bias in the important storm parameters simulated by the synthetic storm model. Correcting the distribution of the most biased parameter may significantly improve rainfall hazard estimation. Bias correction based on the joint distribution of the important parameters may render more accurate rainfall hazard estimations; however, the general technical difficulties in resampling from high-dimensional joint probability distributions prevent more accurate estimations in some cases. The results of the study also support future investigation of the impact of climate change on TC rainfall hazards through the lens of future changes in the identified important storm parameters.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Structure refinement and anisotropic atomic displacement parameters of 1M Illite: Rietveld and pair distribution function analysis using synchrotron X-ray radiation

Illite, a widespread clay mineral, plays a pivotal role in geological processes, notably as an indicator in diagenetic and hydrothermal alteration environments, and possesses significant industrial relevance in applications including ceramics, construction and catalysis. However, challenges including its nanoscale crystallinity, structural disorder and frequent interstratification with other clay minerals have hindered detailed structural characterization using conventional X-ray diffraction (XRD) techniques. This study employs integrated synchrotron XRD and pair distribution function (PDF) analysis to elucidate the crystal structure of the 1M illite polytype, yielding the first determination of its anisotropic atomic displacement parameters (U aniso ). TheseU aniso parameters provide critical insights into atomic dynamics and static disorder within the structure, enabling a more refined understanding of structure–property relationships. This integrated approach, combining synchrotron XRD, Rietveld refinement and PDF analysis, yields a comprehensive structural characterization, capturing both average crystallographic and local atomic arrangements. Considering illite's widespread geological occurrence and industrial importance, this high-precision structural dataset, especially the determinedU aniso values, provides a crucial benchmark for future modeling and simulation efforts targeting accurate prediction of its physicochemical behavior.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Groundwater Modeling of the RDX Plume at Los Alamos National Laboratory to Support Risk Assessment - 20359

A plume of the contaminant hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) with concentrations greater than the New Mexico tap water drinking standard (9.66 ppb) is present in the regional aquifer near the southwestern boundary of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). A risk assessment is performed for exposure to regional aquifer groundwater, with long-term predictions of RDX concentrations provided by a calibrated, probabilistic, numerical fate and transport model. The structure of the model is hierarchical, with the RDX Regional Aquifer (RA) groundwater model acting as the primary tool for analysis of downgradient RDX concentrations. The RA model is deeply informed by the conceptual site model (CSM) and is calibrated using site RDX concentration data and hydraulic head measurements, along with other analyses. The model is calibrated using data through December 2019. Where data are scarce other lines of evidence are used to inform inputs, including the multiphase RDX Vadose Zone (VZ) model and Pipe and Disk analytical screening tool. Model inputs are described with informative prior distributions using a robust approach to development that incorporates all available lines of evidence for every parameter used as an input to the RA model. Calibration is performed using a classical nonlinear optimization routine, which is then used to initialize a Bayesian calibration. The Bayesian calibration constrains the uncertainty in the classical calibration, ultimately providing posterior distributions for all model parameters. The challenges of the calibration include high-dimensional parameter space, including spatially heterogeneous hydraulic conductivities, comparatively sparse data, and low RDX concentrations. Posterior parameter distributions developed in the calibration process are then used for stochastic predictive model runs into the future. The result of the forward runs is spatially and temporally explicit estimates of head and concentration with uncertainty at all points in space and time. The probabilistic modeling approach presented here includes innovative computational and statistical methods that leverage high-performance computing (HPC) resources. It makes use of prior modeling work performed at the chromium plume site in the central LANL area, with extensive updates. The risk assessment will ultimately be used to support decision-making at the site, using multiple appropriately weighted sources of information, as well as uncertainty, sensitivity, and value-of-information analyses. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Efficient Bayesian Approach to Learning Droplet Collision Kernels: Proof of Concept Using “Cloudy,” a New n -Moment Bulk Microphysics Scheme

The small-scale microphysical processes governing the formation of precipitation particles cannot be resolved explicitly by cloud resolving and climate models. Instead, they are represented by microphysics schemes that are based on a combination of theoretical knowledge, statistical assumptions, and fitting to data (“tuning”). Historically, tuning was done in an ad hoc fashion, leading to parameter choices that are not explainable or repeatable. Recent work has treated it as an inverse problem that can be solved by Bayesian inference. The posterior distribution of the parameters given the data—the solution of Bayesian inference—is found through computationally expensive sampling methods, which require over $\mathcal{O}$(10 5 ) evaluations of the forward model; this is prohibitive for many models. We present a proof of concept of Bayesian learning applied to a new bulk microphysics scheme named “Cloudy,” using the recently developed Calibrate-Emulate-Sample (CES) algorithm. Cloudy models collision-coalescence and collisional breakup of cloud droplets with an adjustable number of prognostic moments and with easily modifiable assumptions for the cloud droplet mass distribution and the collision kernel. The CES algorithm uses machine learning tools to accelerate Bayesian inference by reducing the number of forward evaluations needed to $\mathcal{O}$(10 2 ). It also exhibits a smoothing effect when forward evaluations are polluted by noise. In a suite of perfect-model experiments, we show that CES enables computationally efficient Bayesian inference of parameters in Cloudy from noisy observations of moments of the droplet mass distribution. In an additional imperfect-model experiment, a collision kernel parameter is successfully learned from output generated by a Lagrangian particle-based microphysics model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Initial development of a generic fluoride salt-cooled reactor model

Fluoride high-temperature reactors (FHRs) are high-temperature, low-pressure reactor concepts that use tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel and molten fluoride salt coolant. These reactors have the potential to provide both electrical power and high-temperature process heat. We used generic FHR parameters for a pebble-bed FHR to develop an initial model with fresh fuel for a generic FHR (gFHR) in MELCOR and SCALE (NEWT and KENO). In this paper, we present the development of our gFHR models, which will serve as the baseline for a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to quantify the range of possible source terms for FHRs in severe accidents. We present MELCOR results for fuel and coolant temperatures through the core, a nodalization study for the steady-state thermal hydraulic model, and development of reactor physics models in SCALE. As this work progresses, these models will be used to calculate source terms for a loss-of-forced-flow accident and to conduct a sensitivity study on this accident to establish a range of possible source terms. SCALE will provide reactor physics parameters like isotopic inventory, decay heat generation, and temperature coefficients of reactivity. Using the uncertainty quantification tools within SCALE, we will generate distributions for those parameters and will use the uncertainty quantification code RAVEN or DAKOTA to sample those distributions in MELCOR to quantify the impact of reactor physics and thermal hydraulic uncertainties on FHR source terms. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗