Results for “Distributed model predictive control” — Page 11

DOE OSTI2022

Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Modulations by MJO and ENSO in CESM2

Subseasonal tropical cyclone (TC) reforecasts from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CAM6) subseasonal prediction system are examined in this study. Here, we evaluate the modeled TC climatology and the probabilistic forecast skill of basin-wide TC genesis at weekly temporal resolution. Prediction skill is calculated using the Brier skill score relative to a constant annual mean climatology and to a monthly varying seasonal climatology during TC season. The model captures the observed basin-wide climatological TC seasonality and spatial distributions at weeks 1–6, but TC genesis is largely underestimated from Week 2 onward. For some basins and lead times, the predicted TC genesis is primarily controlled by the number of TC “seeds” and the mean-state climate condition. The model has good prediction skill relative to the constant climatology across all the basins and lead times, but is only skillful in the eastern Pacific, North Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere at Week 1 when compared to the seasonal climatology, indicating limited skill in predicting deviations from the seasonal cycle. We find strong modulations of the predicted TC genesis at up to 3 weeks of forecast lead time by the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The interannual variability of predicted TC genesis and accumulated cyclone energy are skillfully predicted in the North Atlantic and the Northwestern Pacific, with a strong modulation by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Additive Molar Volumes in Amorphous Ca/Sr Carbonate Solid Solutions

The development of predictive models of minor element incorporation in crystalline carbonate end products requires an understanding of the fundamental controls on metastable intermediate phase composition. In this study, we used small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS), X-ray pair distribution function (PDF), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS), and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) to determine the composition-dependent density of an amorphous calcium–strontium carbonate (ACSC) solid solution. The amorphous calcium carbonate (ACC) and strontium carbonate (ASC) measured densities were ρ ACC = 2.19 ± 0.04 g/cm 3 and ρ ASC = 2.97 ± 0.05 g/cm 3 . Throughout our work, the experiments showed a dependence of the water content of the amorphous solid solution on the Sr mole fraction. An equation that relates the molar volume to the average cation radius, the carbonate ion radius, and the water volume was parameterized for hydrated crystalline carbonates and predicted well the molar volume of the ACSC solid solution. This finding indicates that, as for hydrated crystalline carbonates, the molar volumes of amorphous carbonates are additive and that water is a structural component of ACSC. Ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations of the ACSC solid solutions showed strong linear correlations between calculated molar volumes and Sr and H 2 O contents, thus supporting the experimental results. In conclusion, our findings highlight the need to consider the full CaCO 3 –MeCO 3 –H 2 O ternary when quantifying metal cation incorporation in ACC.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2015

COUPLING OF RELAP5-SCDAP MOD4.0 AND NEUTRONIC CODES

High-fidelity and accurate nuclear system codes play a key role in the design and analysis of complex nuclear power plants, which consist of multiple subsystems, such as the reactor core (and its fuel, burnable poisons, control elements, etc.), the reactor internal structures, the vessel, and the energy conversion subsystem and beyond to grid demand. Most commonly the interplay between these various subsystems is modeled using coupled codes, each of which represents one of the subsystems. And the most common direct coupling is that of thermal-hydraulics and neutronics codes. The subject of this paper is the coupling of codes that model not only thermal-hydraulics and neutronics, but also structural components damage. Furthermore, the neutronic component is not limited to the sole core solver. The coupled code system encompasses thermal-hydraulics, material performance of the fuel, neutronic solver, and neutronic data preparation. Thus, this paper presents a framework for coupling RELAP5/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 with a suite of neutron kinetics codes that includes NESTLE, DRAGON and a version of the ENDF library. The version of the RELAP5/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 code used in this work is one developed by Innovate System Software (ISS) as part of the international SCDAP Development and Training Program (SDTP) for best-estimate analysis to model reactor transients including severe accident phenomena. This RELAP5/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 code version is also capable of predicting nuclear fuel performance. It uses nodal power distributions to calculate mechanical and thermal parameters such as heat-up, oxidation and meltdown of fuel rods and control rods, the ballooning and rupture of fuel rod cladding, the release of fission products from fuel rods, and the disintegration of fuel rods into porous debris and molten material. On the neutronics side, this work uses the NESTLE and DRAGON codes. NESTLE is a multi-dimensional static and kinetic neutronic code developed at North Carolina State University. It solves up to four energy groups neutron diffusion equations utilizing the Nodal Expansion Method (NEM) in Cartesian or hexagonal geometry. The DRAGON code, developed at Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal, performs lattice physics calculations based on the neutron transport equation and is capable of using very fine energy group structures. In this work, we have developed a coupling approach to exchange data among the various modules. In the coupling process, the generated nuclear data (in fine multigroup energy structure) are collapsed down into two- or four-group energy structures for use in NESTLE. The neutron kinetics and thermal-hydraulics modules are coupled at each time step by using the cross-section data. The power distribution results of the neutronic calculations are transmitted to the thermal-hydraulics code. The spatial distribution of coolant density and the fuel-moderator temperature, which result from the thermal-hydraulic calculations, are transmitted back to the neutron kinetics codes and then the loop is closed using new neutronics results. Details of the actual data transfers will be described in the full length paper.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Evaluating temperature and fuel stratification for heat-release rate control in a reactivity-controlled compression-ignition engine using optical diagnostics and chemical kinetics modeling

We investigated the combustion process in a dual-fuel, reactivity-controlled compression-ignition (RCCI) engine using a combination of optical diagnostics and chemical kinetics modeling to explain the role of equivalence ratio, temperature, and fuel reactivity stratification for heat-release rate control. An optically accessible engine is operated in the RCCI combustion mode using gasoline primary reference fuels (PRF). A well-mixed charge of iso-octane (PRF = 100) is created by injecting fuel into the engine cylinder during the intake stroke using a gasoline-type direct injector. Later in the cycle, n-heptane (PRF = 0) is delivered through a centrally mounted diesel-type common-rail injector. This injection strategy generates stratification in equivalence ratio, fuel blend, and temperature. The first part of this study uses a high-speed camera to image the injection events and record high-temperature combustion chemiluminescence. Moreover, the chemiluminescence imaging showed that, at the operating condition studied in the present work, mixtures in the squish region ignite first, and the reaction zone proceeds inward toward the center of the combustion chamber. The second part of this study investigates the charge preparation of the RCCI strategy using planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF) of a fuel tracer under non-reacting conditions to quantify fuel concentration distributions prior to ignition. The fuel-tracer PLIF data show that the combustion event proceeds down gradients in the n-heptane distribution. The third part of the study uses chemical kinetics modeling over a range of mixtures spanning the distributions observed from the fuel-tracer fluorescence imaging to isolate the roles of temperature, equivalence ratio, and PRF number stratification. The simulations predict that PRF number stratification is the dominant factor controlling the ignition location and growth rate of the reaction zone. Equivalence ratio has a smaller, but still significant, influence. Lastly, temperature stratification had a negligible influence due to the NTC behavior of the PRF mixtures.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Comprehensive Northern Hemisphere Particle Microphysics Data Set From the Precipitation Imaging Package

Microphysical observations of precipitating particles are critical data sources for numerical weather prediction models and remote sensing retrieval algorithms. However, obtaining coherent data sets of particle microphysics is challenging as they are often unindexed, distributed across disparate institutions, and have not undergone a uniform quality control process. This work introduces a unified, comprehensive Northern Hemisphere particle microphysical data set from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration precipitation imaging package (PIP), accessible in a standardized data format and stored in a centralized, public repository. Data is collected from 10 measurement sites spanning 34° latitude (37°N–71°N) over 10 years (2014–2023), which comprise a set of 1,070,000 precipitating minutes. The provided data set includes measurements of a suite of microphysical attributes for both rain and snow, including distributions of particle size, vertical velocity, and effective density, along with higher-order products including an approximation of volume-weighted equivalent particle densities, liquid equivalent snowfall, and rainfall rate estimates. The data underwent a rigorous standardization and quality assurance process to filter out erroneous observations to produce a self-describing, scalable, and achievable data set. Case study analyses demonstrate the capabilities of the data set in identifying physical processes like precipitation phase-changes at high temporal resolution. Bulk precipitation characteristics from a multi-site intercomparison also highlight distinct microphysical properties unique to each location. This curated PIP data set is a robust database of high-quality particle microphysical observations for constraining future precipitation retrieval algorithms, and offers new insights toward better understanding regional and seasonal differences in bulk precipitation characteristics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modular Isolated Soft-Switching Medium Voltage String Inverter for Large-Scale PV Farm

This paper presents a single-stage modular isolated soft-switching medium voltage string inverter (MVSI) with tri-port configuration to interconnect PV and storage to medium voltage (MV) grid. The modular MVSI provides advanced functionalities such as energy storage elements integration without additional converters, connection to MV grid resulting in lower distribution losses in the PV farm, high-frequency galvanic isolation, independent control of PV, storage and grid power, high modularity and scalability. The topology of the MVSI, operation principle and model-predictive priority-switching (MPPS) control to achieve fast dynamic balancing across stacked modules are discussed. The independent power control is validated in PLECS simulation and the operation of stacked MVSI with MPPS control is verified through Hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulation. Here, the hardware prototype of 25 kVA MVSI building block is developed. 18 kW experimental results of single building block verifying tri-ports operation and 20 kW experimental results of two modules stacked operation are presented. A clean sinusoidal waveform with negligibly low THD in both tests is obtained. A low dv/dt of <; 1kV/us and soft-switching are achieved.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quantum-Inspired Bayesian Sampling for Uncertainty Quantification and Machine Learning (Final Technical Report)

With increasing simulation and measurement data, machine learning and artificial intelligence have been widely used in computational decision-making of complex engineering systems. The resulting tools, such as uncertainty quantification solvers, reinforcement learning, and physics-informed machine learning, have achieved great success in critical DOE tasks such as material discovery and design, energy system modeling and control, and numerical weather and climate prediction. A core topic in scientific machine learning and artificial intelligence is Bayesian inference: given an observed data set, people want to estimate the posterior distribution of a (possibly large) number of hidden parameters. Due to the flexibility and weak assumptions, Bayesian sampling has been the mainstream Bayesian inference solvers despite the rapid progress of approximate Bayesian inference. Classical Bayesian sampling methods such as Markov-chain Monte Carlo suffer from a low-acceptance rate due to the random walk nature, therefore state-of-the-art techniques use Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and its variants to efficiently draw posterior samples in a high dimension. The key idea of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and its variants is to simulate the Hamiltonian dynamics of a classical particle with a fixed mass, and their performance significantly degrades when the posterior distribution is highly spiky or has multiple modes. Leveraging the idea of quantum physics, this project has investigated new theory, algorithms and applications of Bayesian inference (especially Bayesian sampling). The main results include: (1) novel quantum-inspired Bayesian sampling methods that can lead to better accuracy for challenging multi-modal or spiky distributions, (2) more scalable machine learning framework leveraging tensor-compressed Bayesian inference, and (3) Bayesian and sampling approaches for verifying the robustness of continuous and binary neural networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantification of Load Flexibility in Residential Buildings Using Home Energy Management Systems

With increasing penetration of renewable energy resources, the flexibility of operating behind-the-meter (BTM) resources plays a key role in enhancing grid reliability and resilience. Residential buildings with home energy management systems (HEMS) can provide desired flexibility for the distribution system operator (DSO) while considering customer comfort and preferences. This paper discusses a methodology to quantify the flexibility of BTM resources of residential buildings using HEMS. First, we propose a model predictive control framework to formulate the flexibility band comprising nominal, upper, and lower demand profiles. Second, the paper proposes a dispatch method for HEMS to compute the control signals for each BTM resource (e.g., air conditioner, water heater, home battery system) upon receiving a flexibility service request from the DSO. The case study provides insight into the flexibility provided at the whole-home level with different user preferences and seasons. The results demonstrate that HEMS is capable of providing flexibility service at the request of the DSO while delivering primary services to the building occupants.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2018

Rational Design Principles for the Transport and Subcellular Distribution of Nanomaterials into Plant Protoplasts

The ability to control the subcellular localization of nanoparticles within living plants offers unique advantages for targeted biomolecule delivery and enables important applications in plant bioengineering. However, the mechanism of nanoparticle transport past plant biological membranes is poorly understood. Here, a mechanistic study of nanoparticle cellular uptake into plant protoplasts is presented. An experimentally validated mathematical model of lipid exchange envelope penetration mechanism for protoplasts, which predicts that the subcellular distribution of nanoparticles in plant cells is dictated by the particle size and the magnitude of the zeta potential, is advanced. The mechanism is completely generic, describing nanoparticles ranging from quantum dots, gold and silica nanoparticles, nanoceria, and single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNTs). In addition, the use of imaging flow cytometry to investigate the influence of protoplasts' morphological characteristics on nanoparticle uptake efficiency is demonstrated. Using DNA-wrapped SWNTs as model nanoparticles, it is found that glycerolipids, the predominant lipids in chloroplast membranes, exhibit stronger lipid–nanoparticle interaction than phospholipids, the major constituent in protoplast membrane. This work can guide the rational design of nanoparticles for targeted delivery into specific compartments within plant cells without the use of chemical or mechanical aid, potentially enabling various plant engineering applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Neural Networks-Based Inverter Control: Modeling and Adaptive Optimization for Smart Distribution Networks

The optimal voltage control of inverter-based resources, especially under the high penetration of solar photovoltaics, is critical to the stability of the distribution power system. However, the computational complexity as well as the coordinated operation performance of the voltage control optimization in the distribution power system limits the real-time applications. To mitigate this issue, a model-free based adaptive optimal control scheme for the smart inverter is proposed to maximize the active power generation, minimize the power loss, and maintain the bus voltages in smart distribution networks. An inverter-based optimization model for coordinated operation is first established, considering the uncertainties of renewable power generation. Subsequently, by collecting the data and control strategies, the neural networks (NNs) based algorithm is proposed to efficiently predict the best possible control strategy. The main objective of this scheme is to accurately predict candidate optimal solutions with near-negligible feasibility and optimization gaps, with the advantage of avoiding complicated iteration-based numerical algorithms. Thereafter, the co-simulation among OpenDSS, MATLAB, and Python is set up to fully take advantage of the three individual software. Experiments are conducted based on different control parameter characteristics and structures of NNs. Finally, the results reveal that an average mean squared error of 0.013 and 1 ms response time are achieved, which is lower than some state-of-the-art methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Learning and Fast Adaptation for Grid Emergency Control via Deep Meta Reinforcement Learning

As power systems are undergoing a significant transformation with more uncertainties, less inertia and closer to operation limits, there is increasing risk of large outages. Thus, there is an imperative need to enhance grid emergency control to maintain system reliability and security. Towards this end, great progress has been made in developing deep reinforcement learning (DRL) based grid control solutions in recent years. However, existing DRL-based solutions have two main limitations: 1) they cannot handle well with a wide range of grid operation conditions, system parameters, and contingencies; 2) they generally lack the ability to fast adapt to new grid operation conditions, system parameters, and contingencies, limiting their applicability for real-world applications. Here, in this paper, we mitigate these limitations by developing a novel deep meta-reinforcement learning (DMRL) algorithm. The DMRL combines the meta strategy optimization together with DRL, and trains policies modulated by a latent space that can quickly adapt to new scenarios. We test the developed DMRL algorithm on the IEEE 300-bus system. We demonstrate fast adaptation of the meta-trained DRL polices with latent variables to new operating conditions and scenarios using the proposed method, which achieves superior performance compared to the state-of-the-art DRL and model predictive control (MPC) methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2015

WE-B-304-01: Treatment Planning Evaluation and Optimization Should Be Dose/volume and Not Biologically Based

The ultimate goal of radiotherapy treatment planning is to find a treatment that will yield a high tumor control probability (TCP) with an acceptable normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). Yet most treatment planning today is not based upon optimization of TCPs and NTCPs, but rather upon meeting physical dose and volume constraints defined by the planner. It has been suggested that treatment planning evaluation and optimization would be more effective if they were biologically and not dose/volume based, and this is the claim debated in this month’s Point/Counterpoint. After a brief overview of biologically and DVH based treatment planning by the Moderator Colin Orton, Joseph Deasy (for biological planning) and Charles Mayo (against biological planning) will begin the debate. Some of the arguments in support of biological planning include: this will result in more effective dose distributions for many patients DVH-based measures of plan quality are known to have little predictive value there is little evidence that either D95 or D98 of the PTV is a good predictor of tumor control sufficient validated outcome prediction models are now becoming available and should be used to drive planning and optimization Some of the arguments against biological planning include: several decades of experience with DVH-based planning should not be discarded we do not know enough about the reliability and errors associated with biological models the radiotherapy community in general has little direct experience with side by side comparisons of DVH vs biological metrics and outcomes it is unlikely that a clinician would accept extremely cold regions in a CTV or hot regions in a PTV, despite having acceptable TCP values Learning Objectives: To understand dose/volume based treatment planning and its potential limitations To understand biological metrics such as EUD, TCP, and NTCP To understand biologically based treatment planning and its potential limitations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

WE-B-304-00: Point/Counterpoint: Biological Dose Optimization

The ultimate goal of radiotherapy treatment planning is to find a treatment that will yield a high tumor control probability (TCP) with an acceptable normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). Yet most treatment planning today is not based upon optimization of TCPs and NTCPs, but rather upon meeting physical dose and volume constraints defined by the planner. It has been suggested that treatment planning evaluation and optimization would be more effective if they were biologically and not dose/volume based, and this is the claim debated in this month’s Point/Counterpoint. After a brief overview of biologically and DVH based treatment planning by the Moderator Colin Orton, Joseph Deasy (for biological planning) and Charles Mayo (against biological planning) will begin the debate. Some of the arguments in support of biological planning include: this will result in more effective dose distributions for many patients DVH-based measures of plan quality are known to have little predictive value there is little evidence that either D95 or D98 of the PTV is a good predictor of tumor control sufficient validated outcome prediction models are now becoming available and should be used to drive planning and optimization Some of the arguments against biological planning include: several decades of experience with DVH-based planning should not be discarded we do not know enough about the reliability and errors associated with biological models the radiotherapy community in general has little direct experience with side by side comparisons of DVH vs biological metrics and outcomes it is unlikely that a clinician would accept extremely cold regions in a CTV or hot regions in a PTV, despite having acceptable TCP values Learning Objectives: To understand dose/volume based treatment planning and its potential limitations To understand biological metrics such as EUD, TCP, and NTCP To understand biologically based treatment planning and its potential limitations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

WE-B-304-03: Biological Treatment Planning

The ultimate goal of radiotherapy treatment planning is to find a treatment that will yield a high tumor control probability (TCP) with an acceptable normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). Yet most treatment planning today is not based upon optimization of TCPs and NTCPs, but rather upon meeting physical dose and volume constraints defined by the planner. It has been suggested that treatment planning evaluation and optimization would be more effective if they were biologically and not dose/volume based, and this is the claim debated in this month’s Point/Counterpoint. After a brief overview of biologically and DVH based treatment planning by the Moderator Colin Orton, Joseph Deasy (for biological planning) and Charles Mayo (against biological planning) will begin the debate. Some of the arguments in support of biological planning include: this will result in more effective dose distributions for many patients DVH-based measures of plan quality are known to have little predictive value there is little evidence that either D95 or D98 of the PTV is a good predictor of tumor control sufficient validated outcome prediction models are now becoming available and should be used to drive planning and optimization Some of the arguments against biological planning include: several decades of experience with DVH-based planning should not be discarded we do not know enough about the reliability and errors associated with biological models the radiotherapy community in general has little direct experience with side by side comparisons of DVH vs biological metrics and outcomes it is unlikely that a clinician would accept extremely cold regions in a CTV or hot regions in a PTV, despite having acceptable TCP values Learning Objectives: To understand dose/volume based treatment planning and its potential limitations To understand biological metrics such as EUD, TCP, and NTCP To understand biologically based treatment planning and its potential limitations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

WE-B-304-02: Treatment Planning Evaluation and Optimization Should Be Biologically and Not Dose/volume Based

The ultimate goal of radiotherapy treatment planning is to find a treatment that will yield a high tumor control probability (TCP) with an acceptable normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). Yet most treatment planning today is not based upon optimization of TCPs and NTCPs, but rather upon meeting physical dose and volume constraints defined by the planner. It has been suggested that treatment planning evaluation and optimization would be more effective if they were biologically and not dose/volume based, and this is the claim debated in this month’s Point/Counterpoint. After a brief overview of biologically and DVH based treatment planning by the Moderator Colin Orton, Joseph Deasy (for biological planning) and Charles Mayo (against biological planning) will begin the debate. Some of the arguments in support of biological planning include: this will result in more effective dose distributions for many patients DVH-based measures of plan quality are known to have little predictive value there is little evidence that either D95 or D98 of the PTV is a good predictor of tumor control sufficient validated outcome prediction models are now becoming available and should be used to drive planning and optimization Some of the arguments against biological planning include: several decades of experience with DVH-based planning should not be discarded we do not know enough about the reliability and errors associated with biological models the radiotherapy community in general has little direct experience with side by side comparisons of DVH vs biological metrics and outcomes it is unlikely that a clinician would accept extremely cold regions in a CTV or hot regions in a PTV, despite having acceptable TCP values Learning Objectives: To understand dose/volume based treatment planning and its potential limitations To understand biological metrics such as EUD, TCP, and NTCP To understand biologically based treatment planning and its potential limitations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Controlled Design of Phase- and Size-Tunable Monodisperse Ni 2 P Nanoparticles in a Phosphonium-Based Ionic Liquid through Response Surface Methodology

Nanoparticles of nickel phosphide are finding wide ranging utility as catalysts for hydrodesulfurization, hydrogen evolution reaction, and hydrodeoxygenation of bio-oils. Herein, we present a methodology to tailor monodisperse nickel phosphide nanoparticles in terms of size and phase through the use of a statistical response surface methodology. Colloidal nickel phosphide nanoparticles were synthesized by replacing octadecene (ODE), a commonly used organic solvent, by a more sustainable phosphonium-based ionic liquid (IL). The replacement of ODE with the phosphonium-based IL resulted in faster crystallization at lower temperatures to yield phase-pure, monodisperse Ni2P nanoparticles. Using a first-order design, the PPh3/Ni precursor ratio was identified as the most critical factor influencing the resulting size and phase of the nanoparticles. Optimization using a Doehlert matrix for second-order design yielded a second-degree polynomial equation used to predict the mean diameter of the nanoparticles (over a range of 4-12 nm) as a function of the PPh3/Ni precursor ratio and the temperature used during synthesis. The resulting model was validated by performing reactions using randomly chosen sets of conditions; the experimentally determined nanoparticle sizes were in excellent agreement with the theoretical sizes predicted by our model. This demonstrates the utility of a multivariate experimental design as a powerful tool in the development of synthetic strategies toward the preparation of colloidal nanoparticles with highly controlled size, size distribution, and phase.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Predicting the Evolution of Shallow Cumulus Clouds With a Lotka‐Volterra Like Model

Abstract In numerical weather prediction and climate models, boundary‐layer clouds are controlled by a wide range of subgrid‐scale processes. However, understanding the nature of these processes and their role in the evolution of the cloud size distribution as a whole has been elusive. To address this issue, we adopt a novel empirical framework from the field of population dynamics to model the evolution of cloud size statistics by using the shallow cumulus properties obtained from a large‐eddy simulation (LES). Our approach involves representing the cloud size distribution and the total cloud area using a revised Lotka‐Volterra model and ridge linear model, respectively. The physical interpretation of the total cloud area and coefficients obtained from the optimization of the models reveals three stages probably interpreted by dominant processes: the formation of new clouds, the growth of single clouds, and a steady state with organized transitions involving the growth and decay of multiple clouds. Furthermore, we showcase the potential of this framework to serve as a component of scale‐aware parameterizations of shallow‐convective clouds in atmospheric models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Restoring Distribution System Under Renewable Uncertainty Using Reinforcement Learning

Distributed energy resources (DERs) in distribution systems, including renewable generation, micro-turbine, and energy storage, can be used to restore critical loads following extreme events to increase grid resiliency. However, properly coordinating multiple DERs in the system for multi-step restoration process under renewable uncertainty and fuel availability is a complicated sequential optimal control problem. Due to its capability to handle system non-linearity and uncertainty, reinforcement learning (RL) stands out as a potentially powerful candidate in solving complex sequential control problems. Moreover, the offline training of RL provides excellent action readiness during online operation, making it suitable to problems such as load restoration, where in-time, correct and coordinated actions are needed. In this study, a distribution system prioritized load restoration based on a simplified single-bus system is studied: with imperfect renewable generation forecast, the performance of an RL controller is compared with that of a deterministic model predictive control (MPC). Our experiment results show that the RL controller is able to learn from experience, adapt to the imperfect forecast information and provide a more reliable restoration process when compared with the baseline controller.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗