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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Improving Performance of Multi-Area State Estimation Using Spectral Clustering

This paper investigates the problem of dividing a large power system into several areas to be solved by a state estimator which coordinates locally obtained decentralized estimates. By applying automatic partitioning to the utility system, the performance of the distributed state estimator can be improved as compared to the pre-defined utility control areas. The presented approach utilizes the spectral properties of the un-directed graph formed by assigning a vertex to every bus and an edge to every pair of buses connected by a line. The graph Laplacian matrix and associated eigenvectors and eigenvalues are used to cluster the graph vertices in such a way that each area has a large number of internal connections, but a small number of external connections. This approach is demonstrated using the IEEE 118 bus system.

Kelle, David↗
DOE OSTI2021

Distributional Deep Reinforcement Learning-Based Emergency Frequency Control

Emergency frequency control is one of the most critical approaches to maintain power system stability after major disturbances. With the increasing number of grid-connected renewable energy sources, existing model-based methods of frequency control are facing up with challenges of computational speed and scalability for large-scale systems. In this paper, the emergency frequency control problem is formulated as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) and solved through a novel Distributional Deep Reinforcement Learning (DDRL) method, namely the distributional soft actor critic (DSAC) method. Compared with other RL methods that only estimate the mean value, the proposed DSAC model estimates the distribution of value function over returns. This advancement can lead to more insights and knowledge for the agent, with the benefit of a much faster and more stable learning process, and the improved frequency control performance. Here, the simulation results on IEEE 39-bus and IEEE 118-bus systems demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of proposed models, as well as the advantage compared to other state-of-the-art DRL algorithms.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Equity-driven Planning of Distributed Solar PV using Optimal Transport

Typically, distribution system planning processes do not explicitly incorporate energy equity considerations, such as identifying consumers most affected by energy costs and determining how investments in the distribution system can address existing energy burden imbalances. This paper proposes a novel optimal transport (OT)-based method to improve the energy burden distribution of consumers. The approach involves the strategic siting and sizing of solar PV in order to assist customers with high energy burden and improve the overall energy burden distribution of the community. The desired energy burden distribution is defined using the equal distribution equivalent (EDE) concept. The OT-based method is then used to estimate the distributed solar PV capacity to be installed at various locations and the tariffs to be adjusted, all while improving the energy burden distribution and providing valuable insights into distributed generation (DG) planning. The results on IEEE 37 bus test system demonstrate how DG planning, considering EDE and OT, can help reduce the energy burden of low-income consumers. Additionally, the approach also reveals optimal tariff adjustments needed to ensure revenue neutrality for distribution utilities.

Optimal transport, equal distribution equivalent, ↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Adaptive-Importance-Sampling-Enhanced Bayesian Approach for Topology Estimation in an Unbalanced Power Distribution System

The reliable operation of a power distribution system relies on a good prior knowledge of its topology and its system state. Although crucial, due to the lack of direct monitoring devices on the switch statuses, the topology information is often unavailable or outdated for the distribution system operators for real-time applications. Apart from the limited observability of the power distribution system, other challenges are the nonlinearity of the model, the complicated, unbalanced structure of the distribution system, and the scale of the system. To overcome the above challenges, we, in this paper, propose a Bayesian-inference framework that allows us to simultaneously estimate the topology and the state of a three-phase, unbalanced power distribution system. Specifically, by using the very limited number of measurements available that are associated with the forecast load data, we efficiently recover the full Bayesian posterior distributions of the system topology under both normal and outage operation conditions. This is performed through an adaptive importance sampling procedure that greatly alleviates the computational burden of the traditional Monte-Carlo (MC)-sampling-based approach while maintaining a good estimation accuracy. The simulations conducted on the IEEE 123-bus test system and an unbalanced 1282-bus system reveal the excellent performances of the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Joint Estimation of Topology and Injection Statistics in Distribution Grids with Missing Nodes

Optimal operation of distribution grid resources relies on accurate estimation of its state and topology. Practical estimation of such quantities is complicated by the limited presence of real-time meters. This article discusses a theoretical framework to jointly estimate the operational topology and statistics of injections in radial distribution grids under limited availability of nodal voltage measurements. In particular, we show that our proposed algorithms are able to provably learn the exact grid topology and injection statistics at all unobserved nodes as long as they are not adjacent. The algorithm design is based on novel ordered trends in voltage magnitude fluctuations at node groups, that are independently of interest for radial physical flow networks. The complexity of the designed algorithms is theoretically analyzed and their performance is validated using both linearized and nonlinear ac power flow samples in test distribution grids.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Sequential Mitigation Solutions to Enable Distributed PV Grid Integration

This paper presents a method to assess the technical impacts of a series of distribution system mitigations for integrating increasing penetrations of distributed generation from solar photovoltaics (DGPV). Solutions considered include distribution grid upgrades and advanced control technologies. This study helps pave the way to estimate the distribution integration costs needed to reach various PV penetration levels. The approach uses three stream-lined, bounding scenarios for increased PV penetration patterns. It begins by studying the distribution impact of PV power and quantifying the PV hosting capacity. Then, it studies multiple mitigation solutions to increase PV penetration on distribution feeders. These mitigation solutions are implemented in a sequential manner according to their typical costs. The proposed technique is demonstrated on two representative distribution feeders.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Efficient First-Order Algorithms for Large-Scale, Non-Smooth Maximum Entropy Models with Application to Wildfire Science

Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models are a class of statistical models that use the maximum entropy principle to estimate probability distributions from data. Due to the size of modern data sets, MaxEnt models need efficient optimization algorithms to scale well for big data applications. State-of-the-art algorithms for MaxEnt models, however, were not originally designed to handle big data sets; these algorithms either rely on technical devices that may yield unreliable numerical results, scale poorly, or require smoothness assumptions that many practical MaxEnt models lack. In this paper, we present novel optimization algorithms that overcome the shortcomings of state-of-the-art algorithms for training large-scale, non-smooth MaxEnt models. Our proposed first-order algorithms leverage the Kullback–Leibler divergence to train large-scale and non-smooth MaxEnt models efficiently. For MaxEnt models with discrete probability distribution of n elements built from samples, each containing m features, the stepsize parameter estimation and iterations in our algorithms scale on the order of O(mn) operations and can be trivially parallelized. Moreover, the strong ℓ1 convexity of the Kullback–Leibler divergence allows for larger stepsize parameters, thereby speeding up the convergence rate of our algorithms. To illustrate the efficiency of our novel algorithms, we consider the problem of estimating probabilities of fire occurrences as a function of ecological features in the Western US MTBS-Interagency wildfire data set. Our numerical results show that our algorithms outperform the state of the art by one order of magnitude and yield results that agree with physical models of wildfire occurrence and previous statistical analyses of wildfire drivers.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Mean-Corrected Recursive Estimation-Based Optimal DER Dispatch for Distribution System Voltage Control

Recent advances in smart inverters offer opportunities to mitigate adverse grid impacts caused by high penetrations of distributed photovoltaics (PV) in distribution grids, such as voltage violations. Here, this paper proposes a novel measurement-driven optimal power flow (OPF)-based distributed energy resource management system (DERMS) voltage regulation via recursive sensitivity estimation informed coordinated control of distributed PV inverters. The proposed approach leverages available grid and controllable DER measurements, eliminating reliance on system model information while being adaptive and robust to volatile operating conditions. A mean-corrected recursive ridge regression (MCRRR) algorithm is proposed for sensitivity estimation, continuously refining the sensitivity model through a closed-form solution. It effectively manages varying grid operating conditions, such as changes in power injections and topology reconfiguration, to facilitate a time-varying update of the Load Sensitivity Factors (LSF). The proposed approach is formulated as a linear programming (LP) problem and is thus scalable to larger-scale distribution systems. Its effectiveness and efficiency are demonstrated on a realistic distribution feeder with high PV penetrations in Southern California, USA.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Formulation of Three-Phase State Estimation Problem Using a Virtual Reference

State Estimation (SE) is the backbone of modern Energy Management System (EMS) due its capability of processing real time measurements and provide reliable information to system operators. Since its introduction to power systems in the 70’s, SE has been widely used in transmission networks. Distribution grids on the other hand lack sufficient number of real time measurements, and for that reason SE has not been widely implemented on these systems. The recent increase in the number of renewable energy sources connected to the grid at lower voltage levels, the advent of Distribution Automation (DA) and Smart Grids necessitate closer monitoring of distribution networks and thus forcing utilities to upgrade their operations and deploy Advanced Distribution Management Sytems (ADMS). Therefore, Distribution System State Estimation (DSE) is paramount to provide real time monitoring of active distribution grids. This papers investigates the formulation of the three-phase distribution state estimation where in the most general case, none of the system buses may have balanced three phase voltages. In such a case, the choice and definition of the slack bus need to be revisited. Most of the existing work arbitrarily assign the root bus of the distribution feeder as the balanced three-phase reference which may not be realistic for today’s active distribution systems. This paper addresses this shortcoming of the existing SE formulations by introducing a virtual reference bus. Here, the proposed approach is effectively validated by simulations carried out on distribution test systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty Error Modeling for Non-Linear State Estimation With Unsynchronized SCADA and µPMU Measurements

Distribution systems of the future smart grid require enhancements to the reliability of distribution system state estimation (DSSE) in the face of low measurement redundancy, unsynchronized measurements, and dynamic load profiles. Micro phasor measurement units (µPMUs) facilitate co-synchronized measurements with high granularity, albeit at an often prohibitively expensive installation cost. Supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) measurements can supplement µPMU data, although they are received at a slower sampling rate. Further complicating matters is the uncertainty associated with load dynamics and unsynchronized measurements–not only are the SCADA and µPMU measurements not synchronized with each other, but the SCADA measurements themselves are received at different time intervals with respect to one another. This paper proposes a non-linear state estimation framework which models dynamic load uncertainty error by updating the variances of the unsynchronized measurements, leading to a time-varying system of weights in the weighted least squares state estimator. Case studies are performed on the 33-Bus Distribution System in MATPOWER, using Ornstein–Uhlenbeck stochastic processes to simulate dynamic load conditions.

Cooper, Austin↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimation of Aerosol Columnar Size Distribution from Spectral Extinction Data in Coastal and Maritime Environment

Aerosol columnar size distributions (SDs) are commonly provided by aerosol inversions based on measurements of both spectral extinction and sky radiance. These inversions developed for a fully clear sky offer few SDs for areas with abundant clouds. Here, we estimate SDs from spectral extinction data alone for cloudy coastal and maritime regions using aerosol refractive index (RI) obtained from chemical composition data. Our estimation involves finding volume and mean radius of lognormally distributed modes of an assumed bimodal size distribution through fitting of the spectral extinction data. We demonstrate that vertically integrated SDs obtained from aircraft measurements over a coastal site have distinct seasonal changes, and these changes are captured reasonably well by the estimated columnar SDs. We also demonstrate that similar seasonal changes occur at a maritime site, and columnar SDs retrieved from the combined extinction and sky radiance measurements are approximated quite well by their extinction only counterparts (correlation exceeds 0.9) during a 7-year period (2013–2019). The level of agreement between the estimated and retrieved SDs depends weakly on wavelength selection within a given spectral interval (roughly 0.4–1 µm). Since the extinction-based estimations can be performed frequently for partly cloudy skies, the number of periods where SDs can be found is greatly increased.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the Use of Smart Meter Data to Estimate the Voltage Magnitude on the Primary Side of Distribution Service Transformers

This paper develops a novel method to estimate the voltage magnitude on the primary side of distribution service transformers. The proposed method relies exclusively on smart meters, and therefore it is fully data-driven. This is an important feature because electric utilities have detailed models of only the primary network - that is, the network between the distribution substation and the primary side of service transformers that are installed closer to end-customer sites. The network that connects the secondary side of service transformers to end-customer sites, referred to as the secondary network, is simply represented by a lumped load. For each secondary network, the proposed method uses data acquired from only 2 smart meters: the closest and the farthest-in the sense of electrical distance - from the service transformer. As a reference to this feature, the proposed method is named SM2Vp. To our knowledge, this is the first time a method is shown to provide actionable information for realtime operation and control of power distribution grids using only two smart meters per secondary network. This is important because utilities have experienced barriers in managing and using large data sets for real-time operation and control. SM2Vp is primarily intended to provide pseudo-measurements for distribution system state estimation, but it can also be used directly for voltage control schemes. The performance of SM2Vp is demonstrated by numerical simulations carried out on three secondary network synthetic models and by using field data provided by a utility partner serving customers in southwestern California. A maximum relative error of approximately 3.9% or less is observed for the primary voltage magnitude estimates in all numerical experiments.

distribution service transformer↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bi-Level Linear Programming Model for Automatic Load Shedding: A Distributed Wide-Area Measurement System-based Solution

Load shedding is currently implemented as a two-step based approach. In the first step, manual load shedding is taken place, were system operators, using estimates, inform distribution utilities of predicted stressful conditions. Information provided include the potential use of energy reserves, as well as load shedding amount. In a second step, automatic load shedding is done. The latter is realized using protection relays. While considering frequency variation, pre-defined values of load to be shed and correspondent number of stages for such to be realized are transformed into relay settings. Under-frequency protection relays use only local measurements towards decision making, thus operate in a decentralized architecture. Decision making is done in milliseconds plus breaker time. While this approach has provided much system reliability, considering the new smart grid paradigm, where system dynamics are much faster due to increasing renewable resources penetration, in some operating conditions it will generate sub-optimal solutions, such as islanding. Phasor measurement units provide a source of information which can be useful for this problem. Centralized architecture-based solutions for automatic load shedding, as present in the state-of-the-art, require though total processing times which are not acceptable for real-life implementation. In this work, considering the above, a bi-level linear programming model is presented. The model is implemented considering a distributed architecture while leveraging phasor measurement units data. The upper-level model estimates the current system state. Results of this model are embedded in a lower-level model, which decision variables are the location and load value to be shed. Easy-to-implement model, built-on the classic weighted least squares solution, highlight potential aspects towards real-life applications.

Bretas, Arturo Suman↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimal Distribution System Voltage Regulation using State Estimation and DER Grid-Support Functions

Increasing solar energy penetrations may create challenges for distribution system operations because production variability can lead to large voltage deviations or protection system miscoordination. Instituting advanced management systems on distribution systems is one promising method for combating these challenges by intelligently controlling distribution assets to regulate voltage and ensure protection safety margins. While it is generally not the case today, greater deployment of power system sensors and interoperable distributed energy resources (DER)e.g., photovoltaic (PV) inverters, energy storage systems (ESS), electric vehicles (EVs)will enable situational awareness, control, and optimization of distribution systems. In this work, a control system was created which measures power system parameters to estimate the status of a feeder, forecasts the distribution state over a short-term horizon, and issues optimal set point commands to distribution-connected equipment to regulate voltage and protect the system. This two-year project integrated multiple research innovations into a management system designed to safely allow PV penetrations of 50% or greater. The integrated software was demonstrated through extensive real-time (RT) and power hardware-in-the-loop studies and a field demonstration on a live power system with a 684 kVA PV system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2018

Variance Estimation in Monte Carlo Eigenvalue Simulations Using Spectral Analysis Method

Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is widely used to solve the eigenvalue form of the Boltzmann transport equation that mathematically represents the neutron transport process through complex multiplying (fissionable) systems. Monte Carlo eigenvalue simulation starts with an assumed fission source distribution and uses the fission sites from the previous iteration (cycle) as the starting source in the current iteration. Important system parameters (MC tallies) such as fuel pin-power distribution are estimated over several cycles after the convergence of the fission source distribution to a stationary distribution. However, the MC fission source iteration algorithm that uses fission source sites from the previous cycle introduces a cycle-to-cycle correlation. Monte Carlo simulations that do not account for the cycle-to-cycle correlation systematically underestimate the variance of the estimated system parameters (sample mean). This paper presents the relationship between the spectral density in the frequency domain at frequency zero and the variance of the sample mean. This paper introduces a novel method in the frequency domain for the MC variance estimation. For the three test problems used in this paper, researchers have observed that the new method results in an improvement of more than one order of magnitude to the standard deviation of the sample mean. The new method also compares favorably with the previously introduced batch, bootstrap, and covariance-adjusted methods when applied to the three test problems investigated in this paper. This new method does not require modification of the MC eigenvalue algorithm (power iteration), is code agnostic, and is therefore easy to use when implementing in any existing MC code. In conclusion, the new estimate can be calculated without saving tally results of all active/stationary cycles.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Efficiency of Uncertainty Propagation Methods for Estimating Output Moments

Uncertainty propagation methods are used to estimate the distribution of model outputs resulting from a set of uncertain model outputs. There are a number of uncertainty propagation methods available in literature. This paper compares six non-intrusive uncertainty propagation methods, Latin Hypercube Sampling, Full Factorial Integration, Univariate Dimension Reduction, Halton series, Sobol series, and Polynomial Chaos Expansion, in terms of their efficiency for estimating the first four moments of the output distribution using computational experiments. Here, the results suggest employing FFNI if there are few uncertain inputs, up to three. Uncertainty propagation methods that utilize Halton and Sobol series are found to be robust for estimating output moments as the number of uncertain inputs increases. In general, higher order polynomial chaos expansion approximations (3rd-5th order) obtained accurate estimates of model outputs with fewer model evaluations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

PNNL DSSE Docker Image

This is the docker image for Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's DSSE (distribution system state estimator) used for the demo of OEDI-SI platform. To support the operation of modern distribution systems, operators require real-time visibility into system states. Due to a lack of measurements and unbalanced operation, the state estimation in distribution systems is challenging. This submission is related to an OEDI-SI use case which demonstrates the application of an extended Kalman filter-based state estimator on an IEEE-123 bus system. The state estimator uses the measurements to generate voltage estimates for the system.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2019

A two-step short-term probabilistic wind forecasting methodology based on predictive distribution optimization

With increasing wind penetrations into electric power systems, probabilistic wind forecasting becomes more critical to power system operations because of its capability of quantifying wind uncertainties. In this paper, a two-step probabilistic wind forecasting approach based on pinball loss optimization is developed. First, a multimodel machine learning-based ensemble deterministic forecasting framework is adopted to generate deterministic forecasts. The deterministic forecast is assumed to be the mean value of the predictive distribution at each forecasting time stamp. Then, the optimal unknown parameter (i.e., standard deviation) of the predictive distribution is estimated by a support vector regression surrogate model based on the deterministic forecasts. Lastly, probabilistic forecasts are generated from the predictive distribution. Numerical results of case studies at eight locations show that the developed two-step probabilistic forecasting methodology has improved the pinball loss metric score by up to 35% compared to a baseline quantile regression forecasting model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗