SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “DECISION”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing decision boundaries under uncertainty

In order to make design decisions, engineers may seek to identify regions of the design domain that are acceptable in a computationally efficient manner. A design is typically considered acceptable if its reliability with respect to parametric uncertainty exceeds the designer’s desired level of confidence. Despite major advancements in reliability estimation and in design classification via decision boundary estimation, the current literature still lacks a design classification strategy that incorporates parametric uncertainty and desired design confidence. To address this gap, this paper offers a novel interpretation of the acceptance region by defining the decision boundary as the hypersurface which isolates the designs that exceed a user-defined level of confidence given parametric uncertainty. This work addresses the construction of this novel decision boundary using computationally efficient algorithms that were developed for reliability analysis and decision boundary estimation. The approach proposed in this paper is verified on two physical examples from structural and thermal analysis using Support Vector Machines and Efficient Global Optimization-based contour estimation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Linear model decision trees as surrogates in optimization of engineering applications

Machine learning models are promising as surrogates in optimization when replacing difficult to solve equations or black-box type models. This work demonstrates the viability of linear model decision trees as piecewise-linear surrogates in decision-making problems. Linear model decision trees can be represented exactly in mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) and mixed-integer quadratic constrained programming (MIQCP) formulations. Furthermore, they can represent discontinuous functions, bringing advantages over neural networks in some cases. We present several formulations using transformations from Generalized Disjunctive Programming (GDP) formulations and modifications of MILP formulations for gradient boosted decision trees (GBDT). We then compare the computational performance of these different MILP and MIQCP representations in an optimization problem and illustrate their use on engineering applications. Importantly, we observe faster solution times for optimization problems with linear model decision tree surrogates when compared with GBDT surrogates using the Optimization and Machine Learning Toolkit (OMLT).

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2014

Effective dialogue: Enhanced public engagement as a legitimising tool for municipal waste management decision-making

Highlights: • A review of public engagement in waste management decision-making is undertaken. • Enhanced public engagement is explored as a means to legitimise waste decisions. • Analytical–deliberative processes are explored as a tool for effective dialogue. • Considerations for integrating public values with technical analysis are outlined. • Insights into the design of appropriate public engagement processes are provided. - Abstract: The complexity of municipal waste management decision-making has increased in recent years, accompanied by growing scrutiny from stakeholders, including local communities. This complexity reflects a socio-technical framing of the risks and social impacts associated with selecting technologies and sites for waste treatment and disposal facilities. Consequently there is growing pressure on local authorities for stakeholders (including communities) to be given an early opportunity to shape local waste policy in order to encourage swift planning, development and acceptance of the technologies needed to meet statutory targets to divert waste from landfill. This paper presents findings from a research project that explored the use of analytical–deliberative processes as a legitimising tool for waste management decision-making. Adopting a mixed methods approach, the study revealed that communicating the practical benefits of more inclusive forms of engagement is proving difficult even though planning and policy delays are hindering development and implementation of waste management infrastructure. Adopting analytical–deliberative processes at a more strategic level will require local authorities and practitioners to demonstrate how expert-citizen deliberations may foster progress in resolving controversial issues, through change in individuals, communities and institutions. The findings suggest that a significant shift in culture will be necessary for local authorities to realise the potential of more inclusive decision processes. This calls for political actors and civic society to collaborate in institutionalising public involvement in both strategic and local planning structures.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2014

Selecting Essential Information for Biosurveillance—A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

The National Strategy for Biosurveillancedefines biosurveillance as ‘‘the process of gathering, integrating, interpreting, and communicating essential information related to all-hazards threats or disease activity affecting human, animal, or plant health to achieve early detection and warning, contribute to overall situational awareness of the health aspects of an incident, and to enable better decision-making at all levels.’’ However, the strategy does not specify how ‘‘essential information’’ is to be identified and integrated into the current biosurveillance enterprise, or what the metrics qualify information as being ‘‘essential’’. Thequestion of data stream identification and selection requires a structured methodology that can systematically evaluate the tradeoffs between the many criteria that need to be taken in account. Multi-Attribute Utility Theory, a type of multi-criteria decision analysis, can provide a well-defined, structured approach that can offer solutions to this problem. While the use of Multi-Attribute Utility Theoryas a practical method to apply formal scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex, multi-criteria problems has been demonstrated in a variety of fields, this method has never been applied to decision support in biosurveillance.We have developed a formalized decision support analytic framework that can facilitate identification of ‘‘essential information’’ for use in biosurveillance systems or processes and we offer this framework to the global BSV community as a tool for optimizing the BSV enterprise. To demonstrate utility, we applied the framework to the problem of evaluating data streams for use in an integrated global infectious disease surveillance system.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRS1966

Sensory, Decision and Control Systems: April to July 1966

The quarter reported here for the NASA contract, and the longer period reported for the Air Force contract, saw the development of two system concepts for the transmission of video data from a remote location to Earth. In the simpler system, a stereoscopic outline together with other data such as reflectance and possibly the texture of objects will be transmitted to Earth. The objects considered are those larger than a predetermined size and within a predetermined range. From the stereoscopic outlines presented to the operator on Earth he will decide what objects he would like pictured in full TV frames and order these transmitted. In the more elaborate system, TV cameras will be carried on a vehicle and the direction in which the vehicle moves will be chosen by an onboard decision computer. Perceptual decisions may also be made to identify objects whose characteristics have been reported to Earth and whose value to the Earth observer has been communicated back to the perceptual computer. The assembly of cameras, perceptual computer, decision computer and vehicle is called a robot. Photosensors for this robot are television cameras, the first models of which have been tested under computer control. A model of both the perceptual computer and the decision computer has been simulated. It consists of 12 modules, each of which makes an initial guess as to what the response to incoming data should be. Each takes the data from all other modules and combines it in a nonlinear fashion with the data coming directly into it to arrive at a mixed guess as to what act should be performed. When 60% of the modules vote 0. 5 probability for one act, that act is performed. Convergence to a satisfactory decision took from 5 to 25 time steps. The model of the frog's retina previously reported is here extended to that part of the brain, called the tectum, where the frog begins to respond to objects detected by the retina.

Control system↗

DOE OSTI2015

D and D decision model and mobile application for selection of fixative, strippable coating, and decontamination gel products - 15696

Deactivation and decommissioning (D and D) is the process of taking an active/excess/abandoned facility to a final disposition end state. D and D presents unique hazards that must be addressed from a safety, programmatic, environmental, and technological standpoint. This definition is especially applicable to Savannah River Site's 235-F facility. The facility was constructed in the 1950's as part of the weapons complex materials production and fabrication. The most significant quantities of residual contamination remaining in 235-F building is in the form of Plutonium-238. A Decision Model was created using MatLab to work hand-in-hand with a product list containing commercially available D and D products. This model was created to further enhance and accelerate the decontamination process. It is envisioned that D and D engineers will be able to use this Decision Model in the field via a mobile device. It allows the user to select four inputs to match their situation. The model searches the database and returns the products that fit the criteria selected by the user. This Decision Model will be made available in a web-based application and as a mobile application to ensure end users can access it when needed. The MatLab code recognizes what position in the text box is selected and then this input is converted to the corresponding string. The string is then compared with the information in the product list in the specified column in order to reduce processing time. Then the products that contain the string inputted are displayed on the table and are separated by category. The web-based version of the model will receive three specified criteria and sub-criteria from the user and update the table with products that fit each criteria. A web-based version of this Decision Model is under way and will be set up on the D and D KM-IT platform. There will be two versions of this mobile application: for devices with internet connection and for those that do not have internet connection. This will ensure end users have access to the Decision application at any time or place during the D and D process. A mobile version of the model will also be developed in the near future.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2019

Quantitative Risk Management - Risk Informed Decision Making on High-Risk Waste Remediation Projects - 19022

For every $1 billion invested in projects, $97 million is wasted due to poor project performance. That means 9.7% of money spent on projects is wasted due to poor risk and uncertainty management. High-risk projects, similar to those in waste remediation, have the most to lose. A solid quantitative risk management program is one of the keys to increasing the likelihood that a project will succeed. A quantitative risk program solves two major problems that challenge the effective management of risk and uncertainty: 1. Risks arise at all levels of an organization; however, not all organizational levels have an effective way to identify and resolve them. This can lead to risks that, even if identified, are not reported. 2. Decision-makers are often forced to operate solely on intuition when implementing mitigation strategies, not fully understanding the effects that certain decisions have on the program's cost and schedule. A quantitative risk program uses a risk register and builds it into the project/program integrated schedule to assess the impact of these risks, typically at the 80% confidence contingency level for specific milestones and/or project completion. Implementing a quantitative risk program drives a forward-thinking, proactive mentality to problem solving into all levels of the organization. A healthy risk program for regular reporting and communication ensures that all members of an organization are thinking about risks and using their communication channels to resolve them. It gives a method of communication and incentive for all levels in the organization and helps to ensure that risks will be reported and resolved. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has developed tools and methods that provide a level of realism for analyzing different scenarios and estimating contingency that does not exist in the standard industry risk tool kit. These tools and methods provide decision-makers with actionable, quantitatively based information to guide their decision making. The first tool is a probabilistic branching risk model for mitigation strategies. Current quantitative risk analysis tools in the industry simulate two cases: fully mitigated and un-mitigated. In the fully mitigated case, the user assumes that every planned mitigation activity is successful. In the un-mitigated case, the user assumes that none are successful. The truth lies between these two extremes. The PNNL team has developed a probabilistic risk model for mitigation scenarios that includes a probability that a mitigation activity will succeed and a probability that a mitigation action will be funded. These probabilities are elicited from subject matter experts and ensure that the contingency calculations at the specified confidence are approaching reality. The second tool developed at PNNL is the Risk Box, which is a tool that integrates with different scenarios in the risk register. For example, say the user is faced with two different and mutually exclusive mitigation actions to reduce a risk. The Risk Box methodology performs the contingency calculations and then displays them on a time-phased graph that shows how each scenario reduces the risk contingency needed on the project/program. This graph then provides quantitative information to show decision-makers which mitigation action provides the greatest reduction (cost and schedule) in risk contingency for the program. Implementing these and other tools within a structured risk program increases the likelihood that a project will come in on schedule and budget, ensures that all personnel are proactively thinking about problems and resolutions, creates communication channels for all members to submit and resolve potential problems, produces a prioritized list of risk rankings to focus leadership on issues that may cause the biggest problems, and implements processes that drive updates to the risk program as the risk profile changes. PNNL has been developing these methods and using them on projects for over 20 years. They have been successfully applied on waste management projects, high-tech research and development projects, and construction projects, and they continue to be used on a number of U.S. Department of Energy projects today. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Opportunities and Challenges in the Visualization of Energy Scenarios for Decision-Making: Preprint

Scenario studies are a technique for representing a range of possible complex decisions through time, and analyzing the impact of those decisions on future outcomes of interest. It is common to use scenarios as a way to study potential pathways towards future build-out and decarbonization of energy systems. The results of these studies are often used by diverse energy system stakeholders - such as community organizations, power system utilities, and policymakers - for decision-making using data visualization. However, the role of visualization in facilitating decision-making with energy scenario data is not well understood. In this work, we review visualization designs employed in energy scenario studies found in the literature and publicly accessible online sources. We discuss the effectiveness of existing techniques particularly in regards to decision-making, and present opportunities and challenges in the visualization of energy system scenario data.

decision-making↗

DOE OSTI2015

Bayesian-information-gap decision theory with an application to CO 2 sequestration

Decisions related to subsurface engineering problems such as groundwater management, fossil fuel production, and geologic carbon sequestration are frequently challenging because of an overabundance of uncertainties (related to conceptualizations, parameters, observations, etc.). Because of the importance of these problems to agriculture, energy, and the climate (respectively), good decisions that are scientifically defensible must be made despite the uncertainties. We describe a general approach to making decisions for challenging problems such as these in the presence of severe uncertainties that combines probabilistic and non-probabilistic methods. The approach uses Bayesian sampling to assess parametric uncertainty and Information-Gap Decision Theory (IGDT) to address model inadequacy. The combined approach also resolves an issue that frequently arises when applying Bayesian methods to real-world engineering problems related to the enumeration of possible outcomes. In the case of zero non-probabilistic uncertainty, the method reduces to a Bayesian method. Lastly, to illustrate the approach, we apply it to a site-selection decision for geologic CO 2 sequestration.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Performance of a machine learning-based decision model to help clinicians decide the extent of lymphadenectomy (D1 vs. D2) in gastric cancer before surgical resection

Background: Controversy still exists on the optimal surgical resection for potentially curable gastric cancer (GC). Use of radiologic evaluation and machine learning algorithms might predict extent of lymphadenectomy to limit unnecessary surgical treatment. We purposed to design a machine learning-based clinical decision-support model for predicting extent of lymphadenectomy (D1 vs. D2) in local advanced GC. Methods: Clinicoradiologic features available from routine clinical assignments in 557 patients with GCs were retrospectively interpreted by an expert panel blinded to all histopathologic information. All patients underwent surgery using standard D2 resection. Decision models were developed with a logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM) and auto-encoder (AE) algorithm in 371 training and tested in 186 test data, respectively. The primary end point was to measure diagnostic performance of decision model and a Japanese gastric cancer treatment guideline version 4th (JPN 4th) criteria for discriminate D1 (pT1 + pN0) versus D2 (≥ pT1 + ≥ pN1) lymphadenectomy. Results: The decision model with AE analysis produced highest area under ROC curve (train: 0.965, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.948–0.978; test: 0.946, 95% CI 0.925–0.978), followed by SVM (train: 0.925, 95% CI 0.902–0.944; test: 0.942, 95% CI 0.922–0.973) and LR (train: 0.886, 95% CI 0.858–0.910; test: 0.891, 95% CI 0.891–0.952). By this improvement, overtreatment was reduced from 21.7% (121/557) by treat-all pattern, to 15.1% (84/557) by JPN 4th criteria, and to 0.7–0.9% (4–5/557) by the new approach. Conclusions: The decision model with machine learning analysis demonstrates high accuracy for identifying patients who are candidates for D1 versus D2 resection. Its approximate 14–20% improvements in overtreatment compared to treat-all pattern and JPN 4th criteria potentially increase the number of patients with local advanced GCs who can safely avoid unnecessary lymphadenectomy.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2018

Developing an Interactive Data Visualization Tool to Assess the Impact of Decision Support on Clinical Operations

Due to mandates from recent legislation, clinical decision support (CDS) software is being adopted by radiology practices across the country. This software provides imaging study decision support for referring providers at the point of order entry. CDS systems produce a large volume of data, providing opportunities for research and quality improvement. In order to better visualize and analyze trends in this data, an interactive data visualization dashboard was created using a commercially available data visualization platform. Following the integration of a commercially available clinical decision support product into the electronic health record, a dashboard was created using a commercially available data visualization platform (Tableau, Seattle, WA). Data generated by the CDS were exported from the data warehouse, where they were stored, into the platform. This allowed for real-time visualization of the data generated by the decision support software. The creation of the dashboard allowed the output from the CDS platform to be more easily analyzed and facilitated hypothesis generation. Integrating data visualization tools into clinical decision support tools allows for easier data analysis and can streamline research and quality improvement efforts.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty for a Digital Thread-Enabled Design Process

Abstract Digital thread is a data-driven architecture that links together information from all stages of the product lifecycle. Despite increasing application in manufacturing, maintenance/operations, and design related tasks, a principled formulation of analyzing the decision-making problem under uncertainty for the digital thread remains absent. The contribution of this article is to present a formulation using Bayesian statistics and decision theory. First, we address how uncertainty propagates in the product lifecycle and how the digital thread evolves based on the decisions we make and the data we collect. By using these mechanics, we explore designing over multiple product generations or iterations and provide an algorithm to solve the underlying multistage decision problem. We illustrate our method on an example structural design problem where our method can quantify and optimize different types and sequences of decisions, ranging from experimentation, manufacturing, and sensor placement/selection, to minimize total accrued costs.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2022

Properly Learning Decision Trees in almost Polynomial Time

We give an n O (log log n ) -time membership query algorithm for properly and agnostically learning decision trees under the uniform distribution over { ± 1} n . Even in the realizable setting, the previous fastest runtime was n O (log n ) , a consequence of a classic algorithm of Ehrenfeucht and Haussler. Our algorithm shares similarities with practical heuristics for learning decision trees, which we augment with additional ideas to circumvent known lower bounds against these heuristics. To analyze our algorithm, we prove a new structural result for decision trees that strengthens a theorem of O’Donnell, Saks, Schramm, and Servedio. While the OSSS theorem says that every decision tree has an influential variable, we show how every decision tree can be “pruned” so that every variable in the resulting tree is influential.

Computer Science↗

DOE OSTI2024

DAWN: Dashboard for Agricultural Water Use and Nutrient Management—A Predictive Decision Support System to Improve Crop Production in a Changing Climate

Abstract Climate change presents huge challenges to the already-complex decisions faced by U.S. agricultural producers, as seasonal weather patterns increasingly deviate from historical tendencies. Under USDA funding, a transdisciplinary team of researchers, extension experts, educators, and stakeholders is developing a climate decision support Dashboard for Agricultural Water use and Nutrient management (DAWN) to provide Corn Belt farmers with better predictive information. DAWN’s goal is to provide credible, usable information to support decisions by creating infrastructure to make subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts accessible. DAWN uses an integrated approach to 1) engage stakeholders to coproduce a decision support and information delivery system; 2) build a coupled modeling system to represent and transfer holistic systems knowledge into effective tools; 3) produce reliable forecasts to help stakeholders optimize crop productivity and environmental quality; and 4) integrate research and extension into experiential, transdisciplinary education. This article presents DAWN’s framework for integrating climate–agriculture research, extension, and education to bridge science and service. We also present key challenges to the creation and delivery of decision support, specifically in infrastructure development, coproduction and trust building with stakeholders, product design, effective communication, and moving tools toward use.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2014

Development of an Automated Decision-Making Tool for Supervisory Control System

This technical report was generated as a product of the Supervisory Control for Multi-Modular Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Plants project within the Instrumentation, Control and Human-Machine Interface technology area under the Advanced Small Modular Reactor (AdvSMR) Research and Development Program of the US Department of Energy. The report documents the definition of strategies, functional elements, and the structural architecture of a supervisory control system for multi-modular AdvSMR plants. This research activity advances the state of the art by incorporating real-time, probabilistic-based decision-making into the supervisory control system architectural layers through the introduction of a tiered-plant system approach. The report provides background information on the state of the art of automated decision-making, including the description of existing methodologies. It then presents a description of a generalized decision-making framework, upon which the supervisory control decision-making algorithm is based. The probabilistic portion of automated decision-making is demonstrated through a simple hydraulic loop example.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Virtual Reality for Shoot/No-Shoot Decision Training in Law Enforcement: A Literature Review and Research Agenda

Virtual reality (VR) can materially improve “shoot / no-shoot” (SNS) training by giving officers realistic, repeatable practice making high-stakes decisions under pressure. Traditional tools—live-fire ranges and video simulators—build basics, but they cannot adapt to each officer in real time or fully mirror the complexity of the field. VR closes that gap by creating immersive scenarios that are safer, more flexible, easier to scale across units, and able to capture objective performance data. SNS decisions are not just about marksmanship; they rely on perception, judgment, memory, and the ability to hold fire when a threat is uncertain. Effective training therefore needs realism, decision complexity, and branching outcomes that reflect the true consequences of choices. These elements strengthen recognition of hostile intent while reducing false positives and building the self-control required in ambiguous situations. VR brings specific advantages: dynamic environments, full-body interaction, and the ability to measure performance with precision—enabling targeted feedback and better transfer of learning to the street. At the same time, responsible deployment must address scenario quality (credible environments and behaviors), lawful decision models, and user wellbeing (appropriate stress levels, comfort, and safety). Sandia’s VIPER Lab is positioned to lead this work. The team combines human-performance science, AI/ML, and VR/AR development with a deep equipment bench (e.g., omnidirectional treadmill, eye-tracking, haptics, multiple HMDs). This ecosystem supports building and validating next-generation SNS training that is immersive, measurable, and trustworthy. Bottom line: Investment in VR-enabled SNS training that blends evidence-based design with careful validation and legal safeguards is expected to pay off in safer, more consistent decision-making and improved community trust, delivered through training that is practical to deploy at scale.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2020

Inferred inflow forecast horizons guiding reservoir release decisions across the United States

Abstract. Medium- to long-range forecasts often guide reservoir release decisions to support water management objectives, including mitigating flood and drought risks. While there is a burgeoning field of science targeted at improving forecast products and associated decision support models, data describing how and when forecasts are applied in practice remain undeveloped. This lack of knowledge may prevent hydrological modelers from developing accurate reservoir release schemes for large-scale, distributed hydrology models that are increasingly used to assess the vulnerabilities of large regions to hydrological stress. We address this issue by estimating seasonally varying, regulated inflow forecast horizons used in the operations of more than 300 dams throughout the conterminous United States (CONUS). For each dam, we take actual forward observed inflows (perfect foresight) as a proxy for forecasted flows available to the operator and then identify for each week of the year the forward horizon that best explains the release decisions taken. Resulting “horizon curves” specify for each dam the inferred inflow forecast horizon as a function of the week of the water year. These curves are analyzed for strength of evidence for contribution of medium- to long-range forecasts in decision making. We use random forest classification to estimate that approximately 80 % of large dams and reservoirs in the US (1553±50 out of 1927 dams with at least 10 Mm3 storage capacity) adopt medium- to long-range inflow forecasts to inform release decisions during at least part of the water year. Long-range forecast horizons (more than 6 weeks ahead) are detected in the operations of reservoirs located in high-elevation regions of the western US, where snowpack information likely guides the release. A simulation exercise conducted on four key western US reservoirs indicates that forecast-informed models of reservoir operations may outperform models that neglect the horizon curve – including during flood and drought conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1980

Clarification process: Resolution of decision-problem conditions

A model of a general process which occurs in both decisionmaking and problem-solving tasks is presented. It is called the clarification model and is highly dependent on information flow. The model addresses the possible constraints of individual indifferences and experience in achieving success in resolving decision-problem conditions. As indicated, the application of the clarification process model is only necessary for certain classes of the basic decision-problem condition. With less complex decision problem conditions, certain phases of the model may be omitted. The model may be applied across a wide range of decision problem conditions. The model consists of two major components: (1) the five-phase prescriptive sequence (based on previous approaches to both concepts) and (2) the information manipulation function (which draws upon current ideas in the areas of information processing, computer programming, memory, and thinking). The two components are linked together to provide a structure that assists in understanding the process of resolving problems and making decisions.

Dieterly, D. L.↗