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NASA NTRS2011

Probabilistic Solar Energetic Particle Models

To plan and design safe and reliable space missions, it is necessary to take into account the effects of the space radiation environment. This is done by setting the goal of achieving safety and reliability with some desired level of confidence. To achieve this goal, a worst-case space radiation environment at the required confidence level must be obtained. Planning and designing then proceeds, taking into account the effects of this worst-case environment. The result will be a mission that is reliable against the effects of the space radiation environment at the desired confidence level. In this paper we will describe progress toward developing a model that provides worst-case space radiation environments at user-specified confidence levels. We will present a model for worst-case event-integrated solar proton environments that provide the worst-case differential proton spectrum. This model is based on data from IMP-8 and GOES spacecraft that provide a data base extending from 1974 to the present. We will discuss extending this work to create worst-case models for peak flux and mission-integrated fluence for protons. We will also describe plans for similar models for helium and heavier ions.

Adams, James H., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Impacts of Extreme Events on Human Health

Increased Exposure to Extreme Events Key Finding 1: Health impacts associated with climate-related changes in exposure to extreme events include death, injury, or illness; exacerbation of underlying medical conditions; and adverse effects on mental health[High Confidence]. Climate change will increase exposure risk in some regions of the United States due to projected increases in the frequency and/or intensity of drought, wildfires, and flooding related to extreme precipitation and hurricanes [Medium Confidence].Disruption of Essential Infrastructure Key Finding 2: Many types of extreme events related to climate change cause disruption of infrastructure, including power, water, transportation, and communication systems, that are essential to maintaining access to health care and emergency response services and safeguarding human health [High Confidence].Vulnerability to Coastal Flooding Key Finding 3: Coastal populations with greater vulnerability to health impacts from coastal flooding include persons with disabilities or other access and functional needs, certain populations of color, older adults, pregnant women and children, low-income populations, and some occupational groups [High Confidence].Climate change will increase exposure risk to coastal flooding due to increases in extreme precipitation and in hurricane intensity and rainfall rates, as well as sea level rise and the resulting increases in storm surge.

floods↗

NASA NTRS2016

Defining Baconian Probability for Use in Assurance Argumentation

The use of assurance cases (e.g., safety cases) in certification raises questions about confidence in assurance argument claims. Some researchers propose to assess confidence in assurance cases using Baconian induction. That is, a writer or analyst (1) identifies defeaters that might rebut or undermine each proposition in the assurance argument and (2) determines whether each defeater can be dismissed or ignored and why. Some researchers also propose denoting confidence using the counts of defeaters identified and eliminated-which they call Baconian probability-and performing arithmetic on these measures. But Baconian probabilities were first defined as ordinal rankings which cannot be manipulated arithmetically. In this paper, we recount noteworthy definitions of Baconian induction, review proposals to assess confidence in assurance claims using Baconian probability, analyze how these comport with or diverge from the original definition, and make recommendations for future practice.

Graydon, Patrick J.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Chapter 8: Droughts, Floods, and Wildfires

Recent droughts and associated heat waves have reached record intensity in some regions of the United States; however, by geographical scale and duration, the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s remains the benchmark drought and extreme heat event in the historical record (very high confidence). While by some measures drought has decreased over much of the continental United States in association with long-term increases in precipitation, neither the precipitation increases nor inferred drought decreases have been confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. The human effect on recent major U.S. droughts is complicated. Little evidence is found for a human influence on observed precipitation deficits, but much evidence is found for a human influence on surface soil moisture deficits due to increased evapotranspiration caused by higher temperatures. Future decreases in surface (top 10 cm) soil moisture from anthropogenic forcing over most of the United States are likely as the climate warms under higher scenarios. Substantial reductions in western U.S. winter and spring snowpack are projected as the climate warms. Earlier spring melt and reduced snow water equivalent have been formally attributed to human-induced warming (high confidence) and will very likely be exacerbated as the climate continues to warm (very high confidence). Under higher scenarios, and assuming no change to current water resources management, chronic, long-duration hydrological drought is increasingly possible by the end of this century. Detectable changes in some classes of flood frequency have occurred in parts of the United States and are a mix of increases and decreases. Extreme precipitation, one of the controlling factors in flood statistics, is observed to have generally increased and is projected to continue to do so across the United States in a warming atmosphere. However, formal attribution approaches have not established a significant connection of increased riverine flooding to human-induced climate change, and the timing of any emergence of a future detectable anthropogenic change in flooding is unclear. The incidence of large forest fires in the western United States and Alaska has increased since the early 1980s and is projected to further increase in those regions as the climate warms, with profound changes to certain ecosystems.

Wehner, M. F.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Operator Trust Function for Predicted Drone Arrival

To realize the full benefit from autonomy, systems will have to react to unknown events and uncertain dynamic environments. The resulting number of behaviors is essentially infinite; thus, the system is effectively non-deterministic but an operator needs to understand and trust the actions of the autonomous vehicles. This research began to tackle non-deterministic systems and trust by beginning to develop a user trust function based on intent information displayed and the prescribed bounds on allowable behaviors/actions of the non-deterministic system. Linear regression shows promise on being able to predict a person’s confidence of the machine’s prediction. Linear regression techniques indicated that subject characteristics, scenario difficulty, the experience with the system, and confidence earlier in the scenario account for approximately 60% of the variation in confidence ratings. This paper details the specifics of the liner regression model – essentially a trust function – for predicting a person’s confidence.

Trujillo, Anna C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

FloodPlanet: High-Resolution Commercial Imagery for Training and Validation of Deep Learning-Based Models of Inundation Extent

Flooding events are becoming increasingly frequent worldwide and are known to cause extensive damage. Public optical and radar satellite imagery can be used to detect large areas of inundation in rural areas, however, long revisit times and coarse spatial resolution limit applications for short-lived events and urban areas. Commercial constellations such as those operated by Planet offer increased spatial and temporal resolution and can supplement mapping efforts to provide more information to disaster response, relief, and mitigation efforts. Deep learning requires high quality labeled data for training across coincident sensors. The FloodPlanet dataset presented here contains labeled surface water for 18 events across the world based on Planetscope imagery with coincident Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2 ( HLS) or Sentinel-1 and builds upon the previously existing Sen1Floods11, xBD, and NASA Sentinel-1 datasets. Sen1Floods11 includes 4,831 512x512 pixel overlapping tiles of coincident Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 data observing 11 flood events across the world from 2017-2019. The dataset contains a combination of automated and hand-labeled surface water for use in training and validation of inundation modeling efforts. The xBD dataset identifies flood-damaged buildings and indicates the scale of damage to each (none, minor, moderate, and major) from four flood events which occurred in the United States, India, Nepal, and Bangladesh from the same time period. The NASA dataset contains hand-labeled water bodies observed in Sentinel-1 imagery during five flood events within the 2017-2019 period. The effort presented here utilizes observations from these previously investigated flood events to generate labels of surface water at the 3-5m spatial resolution provided by Planetscope and facilitate the comparison between public and commercial data. A data pipeline was built which uses clustering algorithms to pick the most suitable overlapping chips between the public data and PlanetScope data for manual labeling. Labels were created manually using NASA’s ImageLabeler tool and include areas of high- and low-confidence water. The high confidence designation is reserved for areas of open, unobstructed water while low confidence is used for areas of suspected water beneath vegetation, clouds, or cloud shadows. Expected to be released in late 2022, the FloodPlanet dataset will include tiled imagery with a unique ID for each 1024x1024 pixel tile, 7 bands of HLS data, and high- and low-confidence flood labels in both shapefile and tiff formats. The authors will follow Spatial Temporal Access Catalog (STAC) guidelines to release FloodPlanet on the Radiant Earth ML hub, which hosts public datasets for machine learning.

Alexander Melancon↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Leveraging the 2024 Solar Eclipse to Enhance Science Learning through Citizen Science

The solar eclipse on April 8, 2024, provided a rare and compelling opportunity for educators and students to engage in hands-on citizen science. Two NASA Science Activation projects GLOBE Mission Earth (GME) and NASA Earth Science Education Collaborative (NESEC) partnered together to provide a unique professional development experience for educators interested in the eclipse. They invited educators to participate in a specialized 5-week online workshop designed to engage the educators in Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) citizen science about the eclipse. The workshop was designed to support their certification as GLOBE educators and develop their knowledge, skills, and confidence in conducting a GLOBE investigation. Over 60 educators from across the United States took part in this workshop, which focused on investigating the eclipse by collecting and analyzing atmospheric data. The GLOBE Program promotes environmental and scientific literacy by enabling participants to collect Earth science data and contribute it to a global database accessible for research. The 2024 GLOBE Eclipse workshop trained educators in specific GLOBE protocols—Clouds, Air Temperature, and Surface Temperature—using the GLOBE Eclipse tool integrated into the GLOBE Observer app. This training was supplemented with guidance on engaging students in authentic scientific research and creating research posters to present their findings. The workshop aimed to enhance educators’ skills and confidence in integrating GLOBE protocols into their teaching practices. It addressed several key areas outlined in the National Academies' report on Learning through Citizen Science, including scientific context, nature of participation, and project infrastructure. Educators learned about the atmospheric effects of solar eclipses and were trained to use scientific tools and data analysis methods relevant to their research. They also engaged in live sessions and asynchronous activities, practicing data collection and analysis with real-time feedback. Survey results from the workshop highlighted that participants were primarily motivated by the desire to better use data in their classrooms and improve their proficiency with the GLOBE Observer app. Post-workshop evaluations showed significant increases in educators' confidence regarding their ability to conduct and guide scientific research. Participants reported feeling well-prepared to use the GLOBE Observer app for data collection and were successful in integrating their eclipse observations into classroom activities. Participants also valued the opportunity to contribute to authentic science through GLOBE, which involved observing atmospheric changes such as air temperature fluctuations and cloud cover alterations during the eclipse. The success of the workshop is evident in the increased confidence and skill levels of educators, as well as the publication of research posters on the GLOBE Mission Earth Student Research webpage.This session will discuss how the GLOBE Eclipse workshop series effectively utilized the unique context of the solar eclipse to enhance science education through citizen science. By adhering to the principles outlined in the Learning through Citizen Science framework, the workshop successfully engaged educators and students in meaningful scientific practices, demonstrating the potential of citizen science to enrich science education and foster a deeper understanding of Earth systems.

Jessica Taylor↗

DOE OSTI2022

PI3NN: Out-of-distribution-aware Prediction Intervals from Three Neural Networks

We propose a novel prediction interval (PI) method for uncertainty quantification, which addresses three major issues with the state-of-the-art PI methods. First, existing PI methods require retraining of neural networks (NNs) for every given confidence level and suffer from the crossing issue in calculating multiple PIs. Second, they usually rely on customized loss functions with extra sensitive hyperparameters for which fine tuning is required to achieve a well-calibrated PI. Third, they usually underestimate uncertainties of out-of-distribution (OOD) samples leading to over-confident PIs. Our PI3NN method calculates PIs from linear combinations of three NNs, each of which is independently trained using the standard mean squared error loss. The coefficients of the linear combinations are computed using root-finding algorithms to ensure tight PIs for a given confidence level. We theoretically prove that PI3NN can calculate PIs for a series of confidence levels without retraining NNs and it completely avoids the crossing issue. Additionally, PI3NN does not introduce any unusual hyperparameters resulting in a stable performance. Furthermore, we address OOD identification challenge by introducing an initialization scheme which provides reasonably larger PIs of the OOD samples than those of the in-distribution samples. Benchmark and real-world experiments show that our method outperforms several state-of-the-art approaches with respect to predictive uncertainty quality, robustness, and OOD samples identification.

Liu, Siyan↗

DOE OSTI2023

Experimental and Phenomenological Investigations of the MiniBooNE Anomaly

This thesis covers a range of experimental and theoretical efforts to elucidate the origin of the $4.8\sigma$ MiniBooNE low energy excess (LEE). We begin with the follow-up MicroBooNE experiment, which took data along the BNB from 2016 to 2021. This thesis specifically presents MicroBooNE's search for $\nu_e$ charged-current quasi-elastic (CCQE) interactions consistent with two-body scattering. The two-body CCQE analysis uses a novel reconstruction process, including a number of deep-learning-based algorithms, to isolate a sample of $\nu_e$ CCQE interaction candidates with $75\%$ purity. The analysis rules out an entirely $\nu_e$-based explanation of the MiniBooNE excess at the $2.4\sigma$ confidence level. We next perform a combined fit of MicroBooNE and MiniBooNE data to the popular $3+1$ model; even after the MicroBooNE results, allowed regions in $\Delta m^2$-$\sin^2 2_{\theta_{\mu e}}$ parameter space exist at the $3\sigma$ confidence level. This thesis also demonstrates that the MicroBooNE data are consistent with a $\overline{\nu}_e$-based explanation of the MiniBooNE LEE at the $<2\sigma$ confidence level. Next, we investigate a phenomenological explanation of the MiniBooNE excess combining the $3+1$ model with a dipole-coupled heavy neutral lepton (HNL). It is shown that a 500 MeV HNL can accommodate the energy and angular distributions of the LEE at the $2\sigma$ confidence level while avoiding stringent constraints derived from MINER$\nu$A elastic scattering data. Finally, we discuss the Coherent CAPTAIN-Mills experiment--a 10-ton light-based liquid argon detector at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The background rejection achieved from a novel Cherenkov-based reconstruction algorithm will enable world-leading sensitivity to a number of beyond-the-Standard Model physics scenarios, including dipole-coupled HNLs.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mapping Rare Earths and Toxics in E-Waste via Hyperspectral Imaging and Machine Learning

Electronic waste (e-waste) presents a mounting challenge to environmental sustainability due to its complex composition, which includes high-value rare earth elements, hazardous organic compounds, and non-recyclable plastics. Accurate and scalable material classification is essential for enabling efficient resource recovery and safe recycling practices. This study introduces a confidence-aware classification pipeline that combines mid-infrared hyperspectral imaging (HSI), spectral angle mapping (SAM), and iterative machine learning to perform pixel-level material identification across e-waste devices. A curated spectral library encompassing artificial materials (e.g., plastic iron oxide, galvanized metals), minerals (e.g., allanite, hematite), and organic compounds (e.g., benzanthracene, toluene) was used to generate pseudo-labels, each assigned a confidence score based on SAM-derived spectral similarity. High-confidence samples from seven consumer electronics—digital cameras, keyboards, laptop fans, modems, motherboards, TV remotes, and speakers—were iteratively expanded and classified using models such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Classifier, Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis (PLSDA) and Logistic Regression. The best-performing classifiers achieved macro F1 scores approaching 1.0. Results revealed widespread plastic content (dominated by plastic iron oxide), the presence of rare earth-bearing minerals like cerium-containing allanite, and pervasive detection of hazardous organics such as benzanthracene. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) visualizations and confusion matrices confirmed high separability and robust classification performance. This methodology enables precise, non-destructive, and scalable classification of heterogeneous e-waste streams. It supports automated, hazard-aware sorting in recycling workflows, facilitating selective recovery of critical materials and compliance with circular economy goals. The confidence-aware framework provides a foundation for real-time deployment in industrial settings, offering significant implications for smart e-recycling infrastructure and policy-driven material stewardship.

Circular economy↗

DOE OSTI2021

A bootstrapping approach to social media quantification

Abstract This work considers the use of classifiers in a downstream aggregation task estimating class proportions, such as estimating the percentage of reviews for a movie with positive sentiment. We derive the bias and variance of the class proportion estimator when taking classification error into account to determine how to best trade off different error types when tuning a classifier for these tasks. Additionally, we propose a method for constructing confidence intervals that correctly adjusts for classification error when estimating these statistics. We conduct experiments on four document classification tasks comparing our methods to prior approaches across classifier thresholds, sample sizes, and label distributions. Prior approaches have focused on providing the most accurate point estimate while this work focuses on the creation of correct confidence intervals that appropriately account for classifier error. Compared to the prior approaches, our methods provide lower error and more accurate confidence intervals.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Operator Workload and Task Allocation in m:N Operational Architectures of Uncrewed Aerial Systems

Uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) show promise in urban air transport, package delivery, and emergency services. UAS efficiency can be significantly improved by having fewer operators (m) manage a greater number of vehicles (N), or the m:N architecture of operation. The current study investigates how workload affects operators’ task-allocation decision-making and potential effects of two crucial human factors: trust and self-confidence. In the context of a simulated UAS package-delivery task, 10 participants with expertise in UAS operation were recruited. Each participant reported their preferred task-allocation strategy for a set of five subtasks while watching two sets of videos with different workload levels. Perceived workload, trust, and self-confidence were also measured after each video session. Overall, participants indicated a preference for automation for most of the subtasks under the delivery mission. Trust, rather than workload and self-confidence, played a significant role in experts’ decisions of task-allocation and assignment methods. Higher trust led to higher preference for automation.

workload↗

DOE OSTI2021

Search for dark matter in association with an energetic photon in pp collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for dark matter is conducted in final states containing a photon and missing transverse momentum in proton-proton collisions at s√ = 13 TeV. The data, collected during 2015–2018 by the ATLAS experiment at the CERN LHC, correspond to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb -1 . No deviations from the predictions of the Standard Model are observed and 95% confidence-level upper limits between 2.45 fb and 0.5 fb are set on the visible cross section for contributions from physics beyond the Standard Model, in different ranges of the missing transverse momentum. The results are interpreted as 95% confidence-level limits in models where weakly interacting dark-matter candidates are pair-produced via an s-channel axial-vector or vector mediator. Dark-matter candidates with masses up to 415 (580) GeV are excluded for axial-vector (vector) mediators, while the maximum excluded mass of the mediator is 1460 (1470) GeV. In addition, the results are expressed in terms of 95% confidence-level limits on the parameters of a model with an axion-like particle produced in association with a photon, and are used to constrain the coupling g a Z γ of an axion-like particle to the electroweak gauge bosons.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing decision boundaries under uncertainty

In order to make design decisions, engineers may seek to identify regions of the design domain that are acceptable in a computationally efficient manner. A design is typically considered acceptable if its reliability with respect to parametric uncertainty exceeds the designer’s desired level of confidence. Despite major advancements in reliability estimation and in design classification via decision boundary estimation, the current literature still lacks a design classification strategy that incorporates parametric uncertainty and desired design confidence. To address this gap, this paper offers a novel interpretation of the acceptance region by defining the decision boundary as the hypersurface which isolates the designs that exceed a user-defined level of confidence given parametric uncertainty. This work addresses the construction of this novel decision boundary using computationally efficient algorithms that were developed for reliability analysis and decision boundary estimation. The approach proposed in this paper is verified on two physical examples from structural and thermal analysis using Support Vector Machines and Efficient Global Optimization-based contour estimation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Verification and benchmarking relativistic electron beam transport through a background gas

It is necessary to establish confidence in high-consequence codes containing an extensive suite of physics algorithms in the regimes of interest. Verification problems allow code developers to assess numerical accuracy and increase confidence that specific sets of model physics were implemented correctly in the code. The two main verification techniques are code verification and solution verification. In this work, we present verification problems that can be used in other codes to increase confidence in simulations of relativistic beam transport. Specifically, we use the general plasma code EMPIRE to model and compare with the analytical solution to the evolution of the outer radial envelope of a relativistic charged particle beam. Additionally, we also outline a benchmark test of a relativistic beam propagating through a vacuum and pressurized gas cell, and present the results between EMPIRE and the hybrid code GAZEL. Further, we discuss the subtle errors that were caught with these problems and detail lessons learned.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity and uncertainty of the IFR-1 BISON benchmark

The fuel performance code BISON is being used to evaluate metallic fuel for a new fast-spectrum test reactor called the Versatile Test Reactor, which is being considered for adoption by the US Department of Energy. To quantify the accuracy of BISON predictions, researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have been developing a series of benchmarks based on legacy metallic fuel experiments. As part of this effort, the sensitivity of BISON predictions to variations in model inputs and the uncertainties associated with BISON predictions must be established. This paper summarizes efforts to perform a comprehensive sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) on a benchmark based on the IFR-1 experiment.For the SA, at least one input was chosen from every BISON model and physics module used in the benchmark. The inputs were varied individually in a series of BISON simulations. Here, the resulting variations in benchmark predictions were normalized to calculate sensitivities. These sensitivities were then used to inform input selections for the UQ.The UQ was performed using the Monte Carlo UQ method. A literature review was conducted to estimate uncertainty distributions for the selected inputs, and values were sampled randomly from each distribution in a series of BISON simulations. Variations in the benchmark predictions were used to estimate uncertainty distributions and confidence intervals. It was found that nearly 100% of the benchmark predictions matched the corresponding legacy values within the confidence intervals. However, this is at least partially because the confidence intervals associated with benchmark predictions were wide. The uncertainty contributions of assumptions in the benchmark, experimental uncertainties, and BISON models were quantified. Some analysis was performed to identify inputs that contributed to the uncertainties. Finally, recommendations are made for future benchmark and future BISON development.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data Set Analysis to Reduce Uncertainty in Formula Assignments of Ultrahigh Resolution Mass Spectra

Environmental samples contain a vast array of organic compounds with diverse elemental compositions and heteroatom content. Molecular formula assignments of ultrahigh resolution mass spectra (HRMS) hold promise for elucidating the molecular composition of these compounds. However, the need to account for an assortment of heteroatoms increases the uncertainty associated with individual assignments – and ultimately the ecological, biological, and biogeochemical insights gleaned from the assignments. To address this challenge, we introduce a formula assignment strategy that leverages HRMS data sets to improve assignment confidence, filter false assignments, and mitigate bias in assignment routines. The strategy, implemented using CoreMS, first identifies the highest confidence assignment for a recurring ion in a data set by assessing the mass accuracy and isotopologue similarity of all assignments to the ion across the data set. The second component of the strategy examines the consistency of mass errors for an assigned ion throughout a data set and flags formulas with statistically unlikely deviations in mass error. Here, we illustrate the application and utility of the strategy by comparing its results against documented misassignment patterns within a set of oceanographic samples that were measured with 21 T Fourier Transform Ion Cyclotron Resonance Mass Spectrometry. Because the efficacy of our strategy improves with data set size, it is particularly useful for enhancing assignment confidence in large HRMS data sets common in studies of environmental systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessing Marginal Land Availability Based on Land Use Change Information in the Contiguous United States

Utilization of marginal land for growing dedicated bioenergy crops for second-generation biofuels is appealing to avoid conflicts with food production. This study develops a novel framework to quantify marginal land for the Contiguous United States (CONUS) based on a history of satellite-observed land use change (LUC) over the 2008–2015 period. Frequent LUC between crop and noncrop is assumed to be an indicator of economically marginal land; this land is also likely to have a lower opportunity cost of conversion from food crop to bioenergy crop production. We first present an approach to identify cropland in transition using the time series of Cropland Data Layer (CDL) land cover product and determine the amount of land that can be considered marginal with a high degree of confidence vs with uncertainty across the CONUS. We find that the biophysical characteristics of this land and its productivity and environmental vulnerability vary across the land and lie in between that of permanent cropland and permanent natural vegetation/bare areas; this land also has relatively low intrinsic value and agricultural profit but a high financial burden and economic risk. We find that the total area of marginal land with confidence vs with uncertainty is 10.2 and 58.4 million hectares, respectively, and mainly located along the 100th meridian. Only a portion of this marginal land (1.4–2.2 million hectares with confidence and 14.8–19.4 million hectares with uncertainty) is in the rainfed region and not in crop production and, thus, suitable for producing energy crops without diverting land from food crops in 2016. These estimates are much smaller than the estimates obtained by previous studies, which consider all biophysically low-quality land to be marginal without considering economical marginality. The estimate of marginal land for bioenergy crops obtained in this study is an indicator of the availability of economically marginal land that is suitable for bioenergy crop production; whether this land is actually converted to bioenergy crops will depend on the market conditions. Here, we note the inability to conduct field-level validation of cropland in transition and leave it to future advances in technology to ground-truth land use change and its relationship to economically marginal land.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗