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Argonne National Laboratory Site Environmental Report for Calendar Year 2021

This report discusses the status and the accomplishments of the environmental protection program at Argonne National Laboratory for calendar year 2021. The status of Argonne environmental protection activities with respect to compliance with the various laws and regulations is discussed, along with environmental management, sustainability efforts, environmental corrective actions, and habitat restoration. To evaluate the effects of Argonne operations on the environment, samples of environmental media collected on the site, at the site boundary, and off the Argonne site were analyzed and compared with applicable guidelines and standards. A variety of radionuclides were measured in air, surface water, groundwater, and bottom sediment samples. In addition, chemical constituents in surface water, groundwater, and wastewater were analyzed. External penetrating radiation doses were measured, and the potential for radiation exposure to off site population groups was estimated. Results are interpreted with respect to the origin of the radioactive and chemical substances (i.e., natural, Argonne, and other) and are compared with applicable standards intended to protect human health and the environment. A U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) dose calculation methodology, based on International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) CAP 88 Version 4.1 computer code, was used in preparing this report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Argonne National Laboratory Site Environmental Report for Calendar Year 2022

This report discusses the status and the accomplishments of the environmental protection program at Argonne National Laboratory for calendar year 2022. The status of Argonne environmental protection activities with respect to compliance with the various laws and regulations is discussed, along with environmental management, sustainability efforts, environmental corrective actions, and habitat restoration. To evaluate the effects of Argonne operations on the environment, samples of environmental media collected on the site, at the site boundary, and off the Argonne site were analyzed and compared with applicable guidelines and standards. A variety of radionuclides were measured in air, surface water, groundwater, and bottom sediment samples. In addition, chemical constituents in surface water, groundwater, and wastewater were analyzed. External penetrating radiation doses were measured, and the potential for radiation exposure to off site population groups was estimated. Results are interpreted with respect to the origin of the radioactive and chemical substances (i.e., natural, Argonne, and other) and are compared with applicable standards intended to protect human health and the environment. A U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) dose calculation methodology, based on International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) CAP 88 Version 4.1 computer code, was used in preparing this report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Levoglucosan data from five coastal streams impacted by the 2020 CZU Lightning Complex Fires, California, United States

This dataset includes levoglucosan data for five coastal California (United States) streams impacted by the 2020 CZU Lightning Complex Fires which burned from August 16th through September 22nd. Levoglucosan is a highly soluble and biolabile fraction of pyrogenic carbon. The five watersheds (San Lorenzo River, Pescadero Creek, Majors Creek, Laguna Creek, and Scott Creek) were impacted by the fires with watersheds experiencing a range of burn severity and extents. Grab samples were collected from each stream between October 2020 and May 2021, targeting both baseflow and event flow hydrologic conditions. Additional biogeochemistry data (i.e., organic and black carbon concentrations) can be found in a separate data package (https://doi.org/10.4211/hs.421c0226bb38460c8393d67fe0c4f802). This data package consists of one main data folder that contains (1) readme; (2) file-level metadata; (3) data dictionary; (4) field metadata with international generic sample numbers (IGSN); (5) methods codes; and (6) levoglucosan data. All files are .csv or .pdf.

2020 CZU Lightning Complex Fires↗

Argonne National Laboratory Site Environmental Report (CY2019)

This report discusses the status and the accomplishments of the environmental protection program at Argonne National Laboratory for calendar year 2019. The status of Argonne environmental protection activities with respect to compliance with the various laws and regulations is discussed, along with environmental management, sustainability efforts, environmental corrective actions, and habitat restoration. To evaluate the effects of Argonne operations on the environment, samples of environmental media collected on the site, at the site boundary, and off the Argonne site were analyzed and compared with applicable guidelines and standards. A variety of radionuclides were measured in air, surface water, groundwater, and bottom sediment samples. In addition, chemical constituents in surface water, groundwater, and wastewater were analyzed. External penetrating radiation doses were measured, and the potential for radiation exposure to off-site population groups was estimated. Results are interpreted with respect to the origin of the radioactive and chemical substances (i.e., natural, Argonne, and other) and are compared with applicable standards intended to protect human health and the environment. A U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) dose calculation methodology, based on International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) CAP-88 Version 4 computer code, was used in preparing this report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Gas breakthrough and emission through unsaturated compacted clay in landfill final cover

Highlights: • Explore feasibility of unsaturated clay as a gas barrier in landfill cover. • Gas breakthrough pressure increases with clay thickness and degree of saturation. • Gas emission rate decreases with clay thickness and degree of saturation. • A 0.6 m-thick clay layer may be sufficient to meet gas emission rate limit. - Abstract: Determination of gas transport parameters in compacted clay plays a vital role for evaluating the effectiveness of soil barriers. The gas breakthrough pressure has been widely studied for saturated swelling clay buffer commonly used in high-level radioactive waste disposal facility where the generated gas pressure is very high (in the order of MPa). However, compacted clay in landfill cover is usually unsaturated and the generated landfill gas pressure is normally low (typically less than 10 kPa). Furthermore, effects of clay thickness and degree of saturation on gas breakthrough and emission rate in the context of unsaturated landfill cover has not been quantitatively investigated in previous studies. The feasibility of using unsaturated compacted clay as gas barrier in landfill covers is thus worthwhile to be explored over a wide range of landfill gas pressures under various degrees of saturation and clay thicknesses. In this study, to evaluate the effectiveness of unsaturated compacted clay to minimize gas emission, one-dimensional soil column tests were carried out on unsaturated compacted clay to determine gas breakthrough pressures at ultimate limit state (high pressure range) and gas emission rates at serviceability limit state (low pressure range). Various degrees of saturation and thicknesses of unsaturated clay sample were considered. Moreover, numerical simulations were carried out using a coupled gas–water flow finite element program (CODE-BRIGHT) to better understand the experimental results by extending the clay thickness and varying the degree of saturation to a broader range that is typical at different climate conditions. The results of experimental study and numerical simulation reveal that as the degree of saturation and thickness of clay increase, the gas breakthrough pressure increases but the gas emission rate decreases significantly. Under a gas pressure of 10 kPa (the upper bound limit of typical landfill gas pressure), a 0.6 m or thicker compacted clay is able to prevent gas breakthrough at degree of saturation of 60% or above (in humid regions). Furthermore, to meet the limit of gas emission rate set by the Australian guideline, a 0.6 m-thick clay layer may be sufficient even at low degree of saturation (i.e., 10% like in arid regions)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Using CFD tools to model separate effects of HTR air ingress accident phenomena - 18508

The air ingress phenomena under the HTR conditions represent the important area of nuclear safety. Best practice guidelines for the use of CFD in nuclear safety applications are mainly based on water cooled reactors while in HTR the gas is used as a coolant. The ambition of this paper is to define the best recommendations and description of needed settings of CFD models solving the separate effects of air ingress accident phenomena. The JAERI experiments deal with phenomena of air ingress during the early stages of the accident. Experiments investigate the basic features of the flow behavior of the gas mixture and regard the phenomena of the molecular diffusion and the natural convection of the gas mixture with the graphite oxidation reaction. The separate effects simulations of air ingress accident were performed using CFD code ANSYS Fluent. Whole graphite oxidation process including all three main chemical reactions was successfully modeled. The new findings and useful information were gathered to be extrapolated to the integral effects level for the following phase. The role of the computational mesh and all important input parameters were discussed in detail and many in sensitivity studies were performed. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

SU-F-T-169: A Periodic Quality Assurance Program for a Spot-Scanning Proton Treatment Facility

Purpose: To develop daily and monthly quality assurance (QA) programs in support of a new spot-scanning proton treatment facility using a combination of commercial and custom equipment and software. Emphasis was placed on efficiency and evaluation of key quality parameters. Methods: The daily QA program was developed to test output, spot size and position, proton beam energy, and image guidance using the Sun Nuclear Corporation rf-DQA™3 device and Atlas QA software. The program utilizes standard Atlas linear accelerator tests repurposed for proton measurements and a custom jig for indexing the device to the treatment couch. The monthly QA program was designed to test mechanical performance, image quality, radiation quality, isocenter coincidence, and safety features. Many of these tests are similar to linear accelerator QA counterparts, but many require customized test design and equipment. Coincidence of imaging, laser marker, mechanical, and radiation isocenters, for instance, is verified using a custom film-based device devised and manufactured at our facility. Proton spot size and position as a function of energy are verified using a custom spot pattern incident on film and analysis software developed in-house. More details concerning the equipment and software developed for monthly QA are included in the supporting document. Thresholds for daily and monthly tests were established via perturbation analysis, early experience, and/or proton system specifications and associated acceptance test results. Results: The periodic QA program described here has been in effect for approximately 9 months and has proven efficient and sensitive to sub-clinical variations in treatment delivery characteristics. Conclusion: Tools and professional guidelines for periodic proton system QA are not as well developed as their photon and electron counterparts. The program described here efficiently evaluates key quality parameters and, while specific to the needs of our facility, could be readily adapted to other proton centers.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Argonne National Laboratory Site Environmental Report for Calendar Year 2013

This report discusses the status and the accomplishments of the environmental protection program at Argonne National Laboratory for calendar year 2013. The status of Argonne environmental protection activities with respect to compliance with the various laws and regulations is discussed, along with environmental management, sustainability efforts, environmental corrective actions, and habitat restoration. To evaluate the effects of Argonne operations on the environment, samples of environmental media collected on the site, at the site boundary, and off the Argonne site were analyzed and compared with applicable guidelines and standards. A variety of radionuclides were measured in air, surface water, on-site groundwater, and bottom sediment samples. In addition, chemical constituents in surface water, groundwater, and Argonne effluent water were analyzed. External penetrating radiation doses were measured, and the potential for radiation exposure to off-site population groups was estimated. Results are interpreted in terms of the origin of the radioactive and chemical substances (i.e., natural, Argonne, and other) and are compared with applicable standards intended to protect human health and the environment. A U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) dose calculation methodology, based on International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) CAP-88 Version 3 computer code, was used in preparing this report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Argonne National Laboratory Site Environmental Report for Calendar Year 2024

This report discusses the status and accomplishments of the environmental protection program at Argonne National Laboratory for calendar year 2024. The status of Argonne environmental protection activities with respect to compliance with the various laws and regulations is discussed, along with environmental management, efficiency efforts, environmental corrective actions, and habitat restoration. To evaluate the effects of Argonne operations on the environment, samples of environmental media collected on the site, at the site boundary, and off the Argonne site were analyzed and compared with applicable guidelines and standards. A variety of radionuclides were measured in air, surface water, groundwater, and bottom sediment samples. In addition, chemical constituents in surface water, groundwater, and wastewater were analyzed. External penetrating radiation doses were measured, and the potential for radiation exposure to off-site population groups and on-site members of the public was estimated. Results are interpreted with respect to the origin of radioactive and chemical substances (i.e., natural, Argonne, and other) and are compared with applicable standards intended to protect human health and the environment. A U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) dose calculation methodology, based on International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) CAP 88 computer code, was used in preparing this report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Practice Patterns Analysis of Ocular Proton Therapy Centers: The International OPTIC Survey

Purpose: To assess the planning, treatment, and follow-up strategies worldwide in dedicated proton therapy ocular programs. Methods and Materials: Ten centers from 7 countries completed a questionnaire survey with 109 queries on the eye treatment planning system (TPS), hardware/software equipment, image acquisition/registration, patient positioning, eye surveillance, beam delivery, quality assurance (QA), clinical management, and workflow. Results: Worldwide, 28,891 eye patients were treated with protons at the 10 centers as of the end of 2014. Most centers treated a vast number of ocular patients (1729 to 6369). Three centers treated fewer than 200 ocular patients. Most commonly, the centers treated uveal melanoma (UM) and other primary ocular malignancies, benign ocular tumors, conjunctival lesions, choroidal metastases, and retinoblastomas. The UM dose fractionation was generally within a standard range, whereas dosing for other ocular conditions was not standardized. The majority (80%) of centers used in common a specific ocular TPS. Variability existed in imaging registration, with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) rarely being used in routine planning (20%). Increased patient to full-time equivalent ratios were observed by higher accruing centers (P=.0161). Generally, ophthalmologists followed up the post–radiation therapy patients, though in 40% of centers radiation oncologists also followed up the patients. Seven centers had a prospective outcomes database. All centers used a cyclotron to accelerate protons with dedicated horizontal beam lines only. QA checks (range, modulation) varied substantially across centers. Conclusions: The first worldwide multi-institutional ophthalmic proton therapy survey of the clinical and technical approach shows areas of substantial overlap and areas of progress needed to achieve sustainable and systematic management. Future international efforts include research and development for imaging and planning software upgrades, increased use of MRI, development of clinical protocols, systematic patient-centered data acquisition, and publishing guidelines on QA, staffing, treatment, and follow-up parameters by dedicated ocular programs to ensure the highest level of care for ocular patients.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Effect of magnetic islands on profiles, flows, turbulence and transport in nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations

Neoclassical tearing modes have deleterious effects on plasma confinement and, if they grow large enough, they can lead to discharge termination. Therefore, they impose a major barrier in the development of operating scenarios of present-day tokamaks. Gyrokinetics offers a path toward studying multi-scale interactions with turbulence and the effect on plasma confinement. As a first step toward this goal, we have implemented static magnetic islands in nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations with the GENE code. We investigate the effect of the islands on profiles, flows, turbulence and transport and the scaling of these effects with respect to island size. We find a clear threshold island width, below which the islands have little or no effect while beyond this point the islands significantly perturb flows, increase turbulence and transport. Additionally, we study the effect of radially asymmetric islands on shear flows for the first time. We find that island induced shear flows can regulate turbulent fluctuation levels in the vicinity of the island separatrices. Throughout this work, we focus on experimentally relevant quantities, such as rms levels of density and electron temperature fluctuations, as well as amplitude and phasing of turbulence modulation. These simulations aim to provide guidelines for interpreting experimental results by comparing qualitative trends in the simulations with those obtained in tokamak experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

COMPASS-FME Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments (TEMPEST) Experiment Tree Inventory

This is the tree inventory (diameter, species, and live/dead status) data from the Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments (TEMPEST) experimental site. This manipulative, ecosystem-scale TEMPEST experiment is part of the COMPASS-FME (Coastal Observations, Mechanisms, and Predictions Across Systems and Scales: Field Measurements and Experiments; see https://compass.pnnl.gov/FME/COMPASSFME) project. It addresses the potential for freshwater and estuarine-water disturbance events to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes in a deciduous coastal forest in eastern Maryland, USA. The experiment uses a large-unit (2000 m2), un-replicated experimental design, with three 50 m × 40 m plots serving as control, freshwater, and estuarine-water treatments.This dataset includes:- An overall dataset README file.- The tree inventory data in both "wide" and "long" forms. These contain the same information but are structured differently, with the former more useful for human viewers and the latter more amenable for programmatic analyses.- A key to the species/genus codes used, which follow the U.S. Department of Agriculture's PLANTS schema (https://plants.usda.gov/).- A copy of the R code used to generate the wide- and long-form data files.All files are comma-separated value (CSV) and no special software is required to read them.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The use of copulas to practical estimation of multivariate stochastic differential equation mixed effects models

A system of stochastic differential equations (SDE) with mixed-effects parameters and multivariate normal copula density function were used to develop tree height model for Scots pine trees in Lithuania. A two-step maximum likelihood parameter estimation method is used and computational guidelines are given. After fitting the conditional probability density functions to outside bark diameter at breast height, and total tree height, a bivariate normal copula distribution model was constructed. Predictions from the mixed-effects parameters SDE tree height model calculated during this research were compared to the regression tree height equations. The results are implemented in the symbolic computational language MAPLE.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Monte Carlo Second- and Third-Order Many-Body Green’s Function Methods with Frequency-Dependent, Nondiagonal Self-Energy

We fully develop the Monte Carlo many-body Green’s function (MC-GF) method with the following enhancements: (1) The truncation order of the perturbation expansion of the Dyson self-energy is raised from the second order (MC-GF2) to the third order (MC-GF3) with the aid of a computerized procedure to enumerate and transform all 84 third-order Goldstone diagrams into Monte Carlo integrable expressions and then into central processing unit (CPU)/graphical processing unit (GPU)-parallel computer codes. (2) An efficient algorithm is proposed that computes all off-diagonal and diagonal elements of the MC-GF2 and MC-GF3 self-energy matrices by common subexpression elimination. (3) The frequency-independent approximation is lifted by introducing a method that computes frequency derivatives of the MC-GF2 and MC-GF3 self-energies up to any arbitrarily high order at nearly no additional computational cost. (4) The imaginary-time integration in the Laplace-transformed expressions of the self-energy is carried out stochastically (instead of using a quadrature in the previous implementations), resulting in a 50- to 200-fold speedup. (5) The efficiency of the redundant-walker convergence acceleration scheme is analyzed numerically, and the guidelines are established to select an optimal number of walkers for maximal efficiency. When such an optimal number is used, the cost per sample is constant of molecular size on either many CPUs or many GPUs. (6) The computational cost to obtain a binding energy within a given statistical uncertainty is observed to increase as (tentatively) O(n 4 ) and O(n 5 ) of molecular size (n is the number of electrons) with and without the diagonal approximation, respectively, as opposed to O(n 5 ) and O(n 6 ) of the corresponding deterministic algorithms. With this method applied to the electron binding energies of C 60 , we show that the third-order corrections to the self-energies are much greater in electron binding energies than in ground-state energies. As a result, they display a sign of oscillatory convergence toward experimental results, not necessarily improving the agreement with increasing perturbation order, justifying MC-GF3 and motivating even higher-order methods.

Algorithms↗

WE-AB-207B-01: Dose Tolerance for SBRT/SABR

Purpose: Stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) / stereotactic ablative body radiotherapy (SABR) is gaining popularity, but quantitative dose tolerance has still been lacking. To improve this, the April 2016 issue of Seminars in Radiation Oncology will have normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models for 10 critical structures: optic pathway, cochlea, oral mucosa, esophagus, chestwall, aorta, bronchi, duodenum, small bowel, and spinal cord. Methods: The project included more than 1500 treatments in 1–5 fractions using CyberKnife, Gamma Knife, or LINAC, with 60 authors from 15 institutions. NTCP models were constructed from the 97 grade 2–3 complications, predominantly scored using the common terminology criteria for adverse events (CTCAEv4). Dose volume histogram (DVH) data from each institutional dataset was loaded into the DVH Evaluator software (DiversiLabs, LLC, Huntingdon Valley, Pa) for modeling. The current state of the literature for the critical structures was depicted using DVH Risk Maps: comparative graphs of dose tolerance limits that can include estimated risk levels, reported complications, DVH data for study patients, as well as high- and low-risk dose tolerance limits. Results: For relatively acceptable toxicity like grade 1–3 rib fractures and chestwall pain, the high-risk limits have 50% risk and the low-risk limits have 5% risk. Emami et al (IJROBP 1991 May 15;21(1):109–22) used 50% and 5% risk levels for all structures, whereas this effort used clinically acceptable ranges for each: in structures like aorta or spinal cord where complications must be avoided, the high- and low-risk limits have about 3% and 1% risk, respectively, in this issue of Seminars. These statistically based guidelines can help ensure plan quality for each patient. Conclusion: NTCP for SBRT is now becoming available. Hypofractionated dose tolerance can be dramatically different than extrapolations of conventional fractionation so NTCP analysis of the SBRT/SBRT data is important to ensure safe clinical practice. Dr. Grimm, designed and holds intellectual property rights to the DVH Evaluator software tool which is an FDA-cleared product in commercial use, and was used to analyze the data.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

An evaluation of health risk to the public as a consequence of in situ uranium mining in Wyoming, USA

In the United States there is considerable public concern regarding the health effects of in situ recovery uranium mining. These concerns focus principally on exposure to contaminants mobilized in groundwater by the mining process. However, the risk arising as a result of mining must be viewed in light of the presence of naturally occurring uranium ore and other constituents which comprise a latent hazard. The United States Environmental Protection Agency recently proposed new guidelines for successful restoration of an in situ uranium mine by limiting concentrations of thirteen groundwater constituents: arsenic, barium, cadmium, chromium, lead, mercury, selenium, silver, nitrate (as nitrogen), molybdenum, radium, total uranium, and gross α activity. We investigated the changes occurring to these constituents at an ISR uranium mine in Wyoming, USA by comparing groundwater quality at baseline measurement to that at stability (post-restoration) testing. Of the groundwater constituents considered, only uranium and radium-226 showed significant (p < 0.05) deviation from site-wide baseline conditions in matched-wells. Uranium concentrations increased by a factor of 5.6 (95% CI 3.6–8.9 times greater) while radium-226 decreased by a factor of about one half (95% CI 0.42–0.75 times less). Change in risk was calculated using the RESRAD (onsite) code for an individual exposed as a resident-farmer; total radiation dose to a resident farmer decreased from pre-to post-mining by about 5.2 mSv y –1 . As a result, higher concentrations of uranium correspond to increased biomarkers of nephrotoxicity, however the clinical significance of this increase is unclear.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modelling feedbacks between human and natural processes in the land system

Abstract. The unprecedented use of Earth's resources by humans, in combination with increasing natural variability in natural processes over the past century, is affecting the evolution of the Earth system. To better understand natural processes and their potential future trajectories requires improved integration with and quantification of human processes. Similarly, to mitigate risk and facilitate socio-economic development requires a better understanding of how the natural system (e.g. climate variability and change, extreme weather events, and processes affecting soil fertility) affects human processes. Our understanding of these interactions and feedback between human and natural systems has been formalized through a variety of modelling approaches. However, a common conceptual framework or set of guidelines to model human–natural-system feedbacks is lacking. The presented research lays out a conceptual framework that includes representing model coupling configuration in combination with the frequency of interaction and coordination of communication between coupled models. Four different approaches used to couple representations of the human and natural system are presented in relation to this framework, which vary in the processes represented and in the scale of their application. From the development and experience associated with the four models of coupled human–natural systems, the following eight lessons were identified that if taken into account by future coupled human–natural-systems model developments may increase their success: (1) leverage the power of sensitivity analysis with models, (2) remember modelling is an iterative process, (3) create a common language, (4) make code open-access, (5) ensure consistency, (6) reconcile spatio-temporal mismatch, (7) construct homogeneous units, and (8) incorporating feedback increases non-linearity and variability. Following a discussion of feedbacks, a way forward to expedite model coupling and increase the longevity and interoperability of models is given, which suggests the use of a wrapper container software, a standardized applications programming interface (API), the incorporation of standard names, the mitigation of sunk costs by creating interfaces to multiple coupling frameworks, and the adoption of reproducible workflow environments to wire the pieces together.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Model evaluation guidelines for geomagnetic index predictions

Geomagnetic indices are convenient quantities that distill the complicated physics of some region or aspect of near–Earth space into a single parameter. Most of the best–known indices are calculated from ground–based magnetometer data sets, such as Dst, SYM–H, Kp, AE, AL, and PC. Many models have been created that predict the values of these indices, often using solar wind measurements upstream from Earth as the input variables to the calculation. This document reviews the current state of models that predict geomagnetic indices and the methods used to assess their ability to reproduce the target index time series. These existing methods are synthesized into a baseline collection of metrics for benchmarking a new or updated geomagnetic index prediction model. These methods fall into two categories: (1) fit performance metrics such as root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) that are applied to a time–series comparison of model output and observations; and (2) event detection performance metrics such as Heidke Skill Score and probability of detection (POD) that are derived from a contingency table that compares model and observation values exceeding (or not) a threshold value. Furthermore, a few examples of codes being used with this set of metrics are presented, and other aspects of metrics assessment best practices, limitations, and uncertainties are discussed, including several caveats to consider when using geomagnetic indices.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗