Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Cloud motion winds”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11

A two-dimensional model of plasma expansion in the ionosphere

A systematic parameter study is conducted of the motion of artificial plasma clouds across the geomagnetic field at ionospheric altitudes. The study is based on a two-dimensional numerical model. Taken into consideration are the effects solar cycle variations on the cloud evolution, as well as the effects of seasonal and geomagnetic activity conditions, and variations in the ionospheric release conditions. The effects of magnetospheric electric fields and thermospheric winds are also considered. The plasma cloud model and related assumptions are discussed, and numerical results are presented.

Ma, T.-Z.↗

Improving Global Analysis and Short-Range Forecast Using Rainfall and Moisture Observations Derived from TRMM and SSM/I Passive Microwave Instruments

The Global Precipitation Mission, a satellite project under consideration as a follow-on to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) by the National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA) in the United States, the National Space Development Agency (NASDA) in Japan, and other international partners, comprises an improved TRMM-like satellite and a constellation of 8 satellites carrying passive microwave radiometers to provide global rainfall measurements at 3-hour intervals. The success of this concept relies on the merits of rainfall estimates derived from passive microwave radiometers. This article offers a proof-of-concept demonstration of the benefits of using, rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) information derived from such instruments in global data assimilation with observations from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and 2 Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) instruments. Global analyses that optimally combine observations from diverse sources with physical models of atmospheric and land processes can provide a comprehensive description of the climate systems. Currently, such data analyses contain significant errors in primary hydrological fields such as precipitation and evaporation, especially in the tropics. We show that assimilating the 6-h averaged TMI and SSM/I surface rainrate and TPW retrievals improves not only the hydrological cycle but also key climate parameters such as clouds, radiation, and the upper tropospheric moisture in the analysis produced by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System, as verified against radiation measurements by the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument and brightness temperature observations by the TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) instruments. Typically, rainfall assimilation improves clouds and radiation in areas of active convection, as well as the latent heating and large-scale motions in the tropics, while TPW assimilation leads to reduced moisture biases and improved radiative fluxes in clear-sky regions. Ensemble forecasts initialized with analyses that incorporate TMI and SSM/I rainfall and TPW data also yield better short-range predictions of geopotential heights, winds, and precipitation in the tropics. This study offers a compelling illustration of the potential of using rainfall and TPW information derived from passive microwave instruments to significantly improve the quality of 4-dimensional global datasets for climate analysis and weather forecasting applications.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Research aircraft observations of the mesoscale and microscale structure of a cold front over the eastern Pacific Ocean

The structure of an oceanic cold front is described on the basis of research aircraft observations taken during the Ocean Storms field experiment. Synoptic and mesoscale analyses compare the structure of an upper-level jet-front system observed slightly downstream from the wind speed maximum to its structure in the upstream entrance region. Stratospheric potential vorticity and ozone were found within the frontal zone down to about 800 mb. Microscale analyses of the front near the sea surface were carried out for a portion of the front having the signature of a 'rope' cloud in satellite imagery. A narrow (less than 1 km) zone of upward motion (about 4 m/s) and of horizontal shear (about 0.01/s) characterized the front near the surface. Significant alongfront variability was found, including lateral displacements in the frontal zone where there were weaker updrafts.

Bond, Nicholas A.↗

Dynamics of the Venus atmosphere

The superrotation of the Venus atmosphere is a major unanswered problem in planetary science. At cloud-top levels (65-70 km altitude) the atmosphere rotates with a five-day period, corresponding to an equatorial wind speed of 90 m/s. Angular velocity is roughly constant on spherical shells, and decreases linearly with altitude to zero at the surface. The direction of rotation is the same as that of the solid planet, which is retrograde--opposite to the direction of orbital motion, but the 5-day period is short compared to the 243-day spin period of the solid planet or to the mean solar day, which is 117 Earth-days at the surface. The problem with the superrotation is that shearing stresses tend to transfer angular momentum downward, and would slow the atmosphere until it is spinning with the solid planet. Some organized circulation pattern is counteracting the tendency, but the pattern has not been identified. A simple Hadley-type circulation cannot do it because such a circulation is zonally symmetric and Hide's Theorem states that in an axisymmetric circulation an extremum in angular momentum per unit mass M can exist only at the surface. Venus violates the last condition, having a maximum of retrograde M on the equator at 70-80 km altitude. This leaves waves and eddies to maintain the superrotation but the length scales and forcing mechanisms for these motions need to be specified. Possible forcing mechanisms associated with waves, eddies and tides are discussed.

Ingersoll, A. P.↗

Formation of Large (Approximately 100 micrometers) Ice Crystals Near the Tropical Tropopause

Recent high-altitude aircraft measurements with in situ imaging instruments indicated the presence of relatively large (approx.100 microns length), thin (aspect ratios of approx.6:1 or larger) hexagonal plate ice crystals near the tropical tropopause in very low concentrations (<0.01/L). These crystals were not produced by deep convection or aggregation. We use simple growth-sedimentation calculations as well as detailed cloud simulations to evaluate the conditions required to grow the large crystals. Uncertainties in crystal aspect ratio leave a range of possibilities, which could be constrained by knowledge of the water vapor concentration in the air where the crystal growth occurred. Unfortunately, water vapor measurements made in the cloud formation region near the tropopause with different instruments ranged from <2 ppmv to approx.3.5 ppmv. The higher water vapor concentrations correspond to very large ice supersaturations (relative humidities with respect to ice of about 200%). If the aspect ratios of the hexagonal plate crystals are as small as the image analysis suggests (6:1, see companion paper (Lawson et al., 2008)) then growth of the large crystals before they sediment out of the supersaturated layer would only be possible if the water vapor concentration were on the high end of the range indicated by the different measurements (>3 ppmv). On the other hand, if the crystal aspect ratios are quite a bit larger (approx.10:1), then H2O concentrations toward the low end of the measurement range (approx.2-2.5 ppmv) would suffice to grow the large crystals. Gravity-wave driven temperature and vertical wind perturbations only slightly modify the H2O concentrations needed to grow the crystals. We find that it would not be possible to grow the large crystals with water concentrations less than 2 ppmv, even with assumptions of a very high aspect ratio of 15 and steady upward motion of 2 cm/s to loft the crystals in the tropopause region. These calculations would seem to imply that the measurements indicating water vapor concentrations less than 2ppmv are implausible, but we cannot rule out the possibility that higher humidity prevailed upstream of the aircraft measurements and the air was dehydrated by the cloud formation. Simulations of the cloud formation with a detailed model indicate that homogeneous freezing should generate ice concentrations larger than the observed concentrations (20/L), and even concentrations as low as 20/L should have depleted the vapor in excess of saturation and prevented growth of large crystals. It seems likely that the large crystals resulted from ice nucleation on effective heterogeneous nuclei at low ice supersaturations. Improvements in our understanding of detailed cloud microphysical processes require resolution of the water vapor measurement discrepancies in these very cold, dry regions of the atmosphere.

Jensen, E. J.↗

Distribution of tropical tropospheric water vapor

Utilizing a conceptual model for tropical convection and observational data for water vapor, the maintenance of the vertical distribution of the tropical tropospheric water vapor is discussed. While deep convection induces large-scale subsidence that constrains the turbulent downgradient mixing to within the convective boundary layer and effectively dries the troposphere through downward advection, it also pumps hydrometeors into the upper troposphere, whose subsequent evaporation appears to be the major source of moisture for the large-scale subsiding motion. The development of upper-level clouds and precipitation from these clouds may also act to dry the outflow, thus explaining the low relative humidity near the tropopause. A one-dimensional model is developed to simulate the mean vertical structure of water vapor in the tropical troposphere. It is also shown that the horizontal variation of water vapor in the tropical troposphere above the trade-wind boundary layer can be explained by the variation of a moisture source that is proportional to the amount of upper-level clouds. Implications for the nature of water vapor feedback in global warming are discussed.

Sun, De-Zheng↗

ERS-1 scatterometer estimates of annual variations of Atlantic ITCZ and Pacific NECC

A 10 m height wind vector data set, named CMODFD, from ERS-1 Active Microwave Instrument (AMI) measurements, was compared with moored buoy wind observations. The CMODFD wind vectors compared favorably with moored buoy wind observations at about 60 sites. Satisfactory results were obtained from intercomparisons between CMODFD and moored buoy estimates of horizontal wind divergence and wind stress curl. The CMODFD positions of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) at 28 deg west were nearly equal to those determined from satellite images of clouds. The CMODFD data were employed to compute the Ekman vertical velocity in the region of the Pacific North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC), and a correlative relation was found between the annual cycles and longitudinal variations of the NECC and Ekman vertical motion.

Halpern, D.↗

A composite study of Florida thunderstorms, using radar, cloud-to-ground lightning, and surface winds

Two thunderstorms occurring in Florida during the summer of 1987 are studied in order to determine the location of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning in terms of surface winds and radar reflectivity. Composites of radar, CG lightning locations, and surface winds during the development, mature, and dissipation stages of the storms are presented and analyzed. The relationship between lightning and radar reflectivity is examined. It is noted that the main CG lightning activity region is on the upshear side of the storm in the reflectivity gradient where upward motion is between the convergent gust front and reflectivity center, and lightning avoids areas of maximum reflectivity.

Watson, Andrew I.↗

Venus winds are zonal and retrograde below the clouds

Winds in the lower atmosphere of Venus, inferred from three-dimensional radio interferometric tracking of the descents of the Pioneer day and north probes, are predominantly easterly with speeds of about 1 M/sec near the surface, 50 at the bottom of the clouds, and more than 200 within the densest, middle cloud layer. Between about 25 and 55 km altitude the average flow was slanted equatorward, with superimposed wavelike motions and alternating layers of high and low shear

Counselman, C. C., III↗

Large Aperture Scanning Lidar Based on Holographic Optical Elements

Lidar remote sensing instruments can make a significant contribution to satisfying many of the required measurements of atmospheric and surface parameters for future spaceborne platforms, including topographic altimeters, atmospheric profiles of, wind, humidity, temperature, trace molecules, aerosols, and clouds. It is highly desirable to have wide measurement swaths for rapid coverage rather than just the narrow ribbon of data that is obtained with a nadir only observation. For most applications global coverage is required, and for wind measurements scanning or pointing is required in order to retrieve the full 3-D wind vector from multiple line-of-sight Doppler measurements. Conventional lidar receivers make up a substantial portion of the instrument's size and weight. Wide angle scanning typically requires a large scanning mirror in front of the receiver telescope, or pointing the entire telescope and aft optics assembly, Either of these methods entails the use of large bearings, motors, gearing and their associated electronics. Spaceborne instruments also need reaction wheels to counter the torque applied to the spacecraft by these motions. NASA has developed simplified conical scanning telescopes using Holographic Optical Elements (HOEs) to reduce the size, mass, angular momentum, and cost of scanning lidar systems. NASA has developed two operating lidar systems based on 40 cm diameter HOEs. The first such system, named Prototype Holographic Atmospheric Scanner for Environmental Remote Sensing (PHASERS) was a joint development between NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and the University of Maryland College Park. PHASERS is based on a reflection HOE for use at the doubled Nd:YAG laser wavelength of 532 nm and has recently undergone a number of design changes in a collaborative effort between GSFC and Saint Anselm College in New Hampshire. The next step was to develop IR transmission HOEs for use with the Nd:YAG fundamental in the Holographic Airborne Rotating Lidar Instrument Experiment (HARLIE). The HOE spins like a compact disk in a large ring ball bearing. In an aircraft the HOE faces down, looking out through a window at an angle of 45 degrees off-nadir. The HOE diffracts 85% of the incident 532 nm light into a 160 micron spot at a focal length of 1 meter. HARLIE is a field deployable lidar measuring aerosol, cloud, and boundary layer backscatter for atmospheric research. It has flown several times and is also used from a ground-based trailer in an upward-looking mode. The HOE generates a 45 degree conical scan pattern by rotating at speeds up to 30 rpm. Like PHASERS, the HOE in HARLIE serves both as the laser collimating lens as well as the receiver telescope primary optic. The telescope is coupled to the receiver package via fiber optic. The transmitter is a diode pumped Nd:YAG laser operating at 1064 nm, delivering 1 mJ pulses at a 5 KHz rep-rate. The receiver has a 200 microradian field-of-view and a 0.5 nm optical bandpass. The photon counting data system utilizes a single Geiger-mode silicon avalanche photodiode detector, This new technology has also presented us with new data visualization challenges as well as new measurement techniques. The backscatter data obtained from a stationary (i.e. ground-based) scanning HOE lidar is on the surface of a cone, which when viewed over many consecutive scans can reveal atmospheric motions on this surface over time as the atmosphere advects over the site. In a moving platform such as an airplane or satellite, the data from consecutive scans cover different areas under the flight path, revealing atmospheric structure in 3-dimensions. An example of a visualization of HARLIE ground-based data is presented, showing aerosol backscatter on a 90 degree conical surface generated from one 360 degree scan of the lidar during the HOLO-1 field campaign on the afternoon of 10 March 1999. Higher backscatter levels are rendered as lighter signal against a dark background. Breaking Kelvin-Helmholtz waves are evident on the north side of the scan at an altitude of 10-11 km. Time series of successive scans made at regular intervals render unique views of atmospheric motions, from which vertical profiles of atmospheric wind vectors can be obtained using a unique data analysis approach. Wind vectors obtained from the lidar were compared with co-located radiosonde wind profiles during an intensive operating period in September-October 2000 at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program's Southern Great Plains Central Facility.

Schwemmer, Geary K.↗

Insights of Boundary Layer Turbulence Over the Complex Terrain of Central Himalaya from GVAX Field Campaign

Limited observations hinder understanding of turbulent characteristics in mountainous terrain resulting from heating or cooling of slopes, wind, vertical motions, and heat or moisture advection, which disperse aerosols and other pollutants over the region. In this study, the 1290 MHz radar wind profiler data are utilized to compute the boundary layer height (BLH), the refractive index structure constant (C n 2 ), and the energy dissipation rate (ε) over the central Himalayan site for the period of November 2011 to March 2012, from the intense Ganges Valley Aerosol Experiment (GVAX) field measurements. The radar wind profiler (RWP) based estimation of BLH and ε is validated against the radiosonde, representing the effectiveness of the datasets for further investigation. The strong seasonal variation of log C n 2 and log ε, with average values of ≈ -12 m -2/3 and -2 m 2 s -3 , respectively, is associated with the mountain-induced local circulations and stability in the atmospheric boundary layer. The weak stratification during weak flow is found to be responsible for deep mixing, particularly in the nocturnal boundary layer in spring. Furthermore, the level of cloud cover significantly impacts the strength of turbulence, with the highest cloud cover resulting in a substantial increase in log C n 2 (approximately -11 m -2/3 ) due to intense updraft and downdraft motions compared to clear skies. Additionally, the distribution of aerosol loading across the site, coupled with the behavior of BLH, atmospheric stability, and orographic-induced circulations, implies distinctive seasonal mechanisms for transporting aerosols toward the mountains. This study offers valuable insights into the diurnal and seasonal patterns of turbulent mixing and the mechanisms behind the transport of pollutants through boundary layer processes over the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mesoscale meteorology - Theories, observations and models; Proceedings of the Advanced Study Institute, Bonas, Gers, France, July 13-31, 1982

Among the topics discussed are mesoscale processes and variability, regional and cyclonic scale motions and their prediction modeling, fronts, mesoscale instabilities, buoyancy (gravity) waves and topographic forcing, buoyant convection, boundary layers, and observational technology. The specific issues investigated include methods for initializing mesoscale forecast models, an energy theory for the propagation of gravity currents, a theory for rain bands within extratropical cyclones, the morning glory as a nonlinear wave phenomenon, cumulus clouds, the prediction of severe convection, planetary boundary layer parameterization, and three-dimensional wind field analysis from Doppler radar data.

Lilly, D. K.↗

Variational Assimilation of Global Microwave Rainfall Retrievals: Physical and Dynamical Impact on GEOS Analyses and Forecasts

Global microwave rainfall retrievals from a 5-satellite constellation, including TMI from TRMM, SSWI from DMSP F13, F14 and F15, and AMSR-E from EOS-AQUA, are assimilated into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS) using a 1-D variational continuous assimilation (VCA) algorithm. The physical and dynamical impact of rainfall assimilation on GEOS analyses and forecasts is examined at various temporal and spatial scales. This study demonstrates that the 1-D VCA algorithm, which was originally developed and evaluated for rainfall assimilations over tropical oceans, can effectively assimilate satellite microwave rainfall retrievals and improve GEOS analyses over both the Tropics and the extratropics where the atmospheric processes are dominated by different large-scale dynamics and moist physics, and also over the land, where rainfall estimates from passive microwave radiometers are believed to be less accurate. Results show that rainfall assimilation renders the GEOS analysis physically and dynamically more consistent with the observed precipitation at the monthly-mean and 6-hour time scales. Over regions where the model precipitation tends to misbehave in distinctly different rainy regimes, the 1-D VCA algorithm, by compensating for errors in the model s moist time-tendency in a 6-h analysis window, is able to bring the rainfall analysis closer to the observed. The radiation and cloud fields also tend to be in better agreement with independent satellite observations in the rainfall-assimilation m especially over regions where rainfall analyses indicate large improvements. Assimilation experiments with and without rainfall data for a midlatitude frontal system clearly indicates that the GEOS analysis is improved through changes in the thermodynamic and dynamic fields that respond to the rainfall assimilation. The synoptic structures of temperature, moisture, winds, divergence, and vertical motion, as well as vorticity are more realistically captured across the front. Short-term forecasts using initial conditions assimilated with rainfall data also show slight improvements. 1

Lin, Xin↗

Prevention of accretion onto white dwarfs by stellar winds

There is indirect observational evidence that hot white dwarfs may have weak stellar winds. In this paper, the interaction between such a wind and the flow of ISM material in the gravitational field of the white dwarf is investigated with the aim of finding limits on the mass-loss rate and terminal velocity of winds capable of preventing accretion from the ISM. The limiting cases of no relative motion of the star and the ISM and supersonic relative motion of the star through ISM are separately investigated. Each case is treated by generalizing models for the interaction between the solar wind and the local ISM to include the effects of gravity. It is found that, for wind velocities expected for radiatively driven winds, mass-loss rates as low as 10 exp -21 solar mass/yr are sufficient to prevent accretion from the hot phase of the ISM. To prevent accretion during passages through cold clouds, wind mass-loss rates of order 10 exp -18 to 10 exp -17 are required.

Macdonald, James↗

Analyzing the Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Cycle using GPM, TROPICS, and other Spaceborne Observations

Tropical cyclones (TCs) exhibit a distinct diurnal cycle of high clouds and rainfall, marked by an expansion of the TC cirrus canopy during the day and enhanced rainfall overnight. Recent modeling work also has uncovered a diurnal cycle of low-level radial and tangential winds in simulated storms, marked by an expansion of the surface wind field overnight and into the morning, along with increasing maximum wind speed in the eyewall. These results suggest that diurnal changes in radiative heating tendencies not only affect upper-level cirrus clouds and precipitating convection, but also the low-level circulation. This presentation will characterize expansions of the TC rain field using the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission’s Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) half-hourly precipitation estimates. The Level 3 IMERG-Final rainfall data are azimuthally averaged about TC center positions in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins, accounting for asymmetries due to vertical wind shear and storm motion. Preliminary results indicate that the TC rain field expands overnight and through the morning, reaching its maximum extent during the afternoon. This evolution is considerably asymmetric, however, with expansion favored downshear of the storm center. The results are broadly consistent with previous work that characterized the TC diurnal cycle using other observations and simulations. A similar analysis is performed using microphysical retrievals from the GPM Goddard Profiling algorithm and lightning data from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper to understand the relationship between the diurnal cycle, ice microphsyics, and lightning. Finally, with the ongoing Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats (TROPICS) mission, we will discuss our plans to leverage TROPICS for enhanced observation of the TC diurnal cycle.

Patrick Duran↗

Gravity Waves and Mesospheric Clouds in the Summer Middle Atmosphere: A Comparison of Lidar Measurements and Ray Modeling of Gravity Waves Over Sondrestrom, Greenland

We conducted gravity wave ray-tracing experiments within an atmospheric region centered near the ARCLITE lidar system at Sondrestrom, Greenland (67N, 310 deg E), in efforts to understand lidar observations of both upper stratospheric gravity wave activity and mesospheric clouds during August 1996 and the summer of 2001. The ray model was used to trace gravity waves through realistic three-dimensional daily-varying background atmospheres in the region, based on forecasts and analyses in the troposphere and stratosphere and climatologies higher up. Reverse ray tracing based on upper stratospheric lidar observations at Sondrestrom was also used to try to objectively identify wave source regions in the troposphere. A source spectrum specified by reverse ray tracing experiments in early August 1996 (when atmospheric flow patterns produced enhanced transmission of waves into the upper stratosphere) yielded model results throughout the remainder of August 1996 that agreed best with the lidar observations. The model also simulated increased vertical group propagation of waves between 40 km and 80 km due to intensifying mean easterlies, which allowed many of the gravity waves observed at 40 km over Sondrestrom to propagate quasi-vertically from 40-80 km and then interact with any mesospheric clouds at 80 km near Sondrestrom, supporting earlier experimentally-inferred correlations between upper stratospheric gravity wave activity and mesospheric cloud backscatter from Sondrestrom lidar observations. A pilot experiment of real-time runs with the model in 2001 using weather forecast data as a low-level background produced less agreement with lidar observations. We believe this is due to limitations in our specified tropospheric source spectrum, the use of climatological winds and temperatures in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere, and missing lidar data from important time periods.

LIDAR (LIGHT DETECTION AND RANGING)↗

Determining Spatial Scales of Soil Moisture—Cloud Coupling Pathways Using Semi-Idealized Simulations

The spatial scales of land-atmosphere interactions over heterogeneous, realistic soil moisture patterns are critical to improve our understanding of land-atmosphere interactions. However, these scales are poorly quantified. We use high-resolution numerical experiments to quantify the spatial scales for a selected day during the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) campaign in Oklahoma. A semi-idealized approach (removing background winds and surface topography while retaining the real-world data for other boundary conditions) enables examination of the local influence from the surface. Simulations that apply uniform surface, variable land cover with uniform soil moisture, and variable land cover with variable soil moisture are then compared. Land cover variations, especially water and urban surfaces, create two variance peaks in the surface sensible heat flux in the scales >10 km (meso-β) and <6 km (meso-γ). Both peaks are enhanced by the observation-based soil moisture distribution that has most of its variance in the meso-β scale. Atmospheric response in the meso-β scale is hydrostatic with weak vertical motion. The land cover variations induce secondary circulations in the scales of 2.5–6 km. The additional soil moisture variability intensifies extreme circulations over dry soil patches and sharp sensible heat flux gradients, slightly extending the characteristic scales to 2.5–9 km. While their areal coverage is small, soil moisture variations on such “hotspots” lead to substantially larger convective cloud structure and domain-mean rainfall, calling for a consideration of their non-linear effect in large-scale models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Utilization of satellite cloud information to diagnose the energy state and transformations in extratropical cyclones

An important component of the research was a continuing investigation of the impact of latent release on extratropical cyclone development. Previous efforts to accomplish this task have focused on the energy balance and the vertical motion field of an intense winter extratropical cyclone over the United States. During this fiscal year researchers turned their attention to a more fundamental diagnostic variable, the height tendency. Central to this effort is the use of a modified form of the quasi-geostrophic height tendency equation, in which geostrophic wind components have been replaced by observed winds and a latent heat release term has been added. This methodology was adopted to produce a simple diagnostic model which retains the essential mechanisms of quasi-geostrophic theory but more faithfully describes observed wave development when the Rossby Number approaches and exceeds 0.5. Results to date indicate that the new model yields height tendencies that are superior to those obtained from the quasi-geostrophic formulation and are sufficiently close to the observed tendencies to be a useful tool for diagnosing the principle large-scale forcing mechanisms in th e700-300 mb layer. Of the three forcing terms included in the new model, vortity advection is in general dominant. The most persistent challenge to this dominance is made by the thermal advection. On the whole, latent heat release plays a secondary role. Finally, during the rapid intensification observed for this cyclone, all three processes complement each other in forcing height falls.

Smith, P. J.↗