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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Vegetation-induced asymmetric diurnal land surface temperatures changes across global climate zones

Unprecedented global vegetation greening during past decades is well known to affect annual and seasonal land surface temperatures (LST). However, the impact of observed vegetation cover change on diurnal LST across global climatic zones is not well understood. In this study, using global climatic time-series datasets, we investigated the long-term growing season daytime and nighttime LST changes globally and explored associated dominant contributors including vegetation and climate factors including air temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. Results revealed asymmetric growing season mean daytime and nighttime LST warming (0.16 °C/10a and 0.30 °C/10a, respectively) globally from 2003 to 2020, as a result, the diurnal LST range (DLSTR) declined at 0.14 °C/10a. The sensitivity analysis indicated the LST response to changes in LAI, precipitation, and SSRD mainly concentrated during daytime instead of nighttime, however, which showed comparable sensitivities for air temperature. Combining the sensitivities results and the observed LAI and climate trends, we found rising air temperature contributes to 0.24 ± 0.11 °C/10a global daytime LST warming and 0.16 ± 0.07 °C/10a nighttime LST warming, turns to be the dominant contributor to the LST changes. Increased LAI cooled global daytime LST (–0.068 ± 0.096 °C/10a) while warmed nighttime LST (0.064 ± 0.046 °C/10a); hence LAI dominates declines in DLSTR trends (–0.12 ± 0.08 °C/10a), despite some daynight process variations across climate zones. In Boreal regions, reduced DLSTR was due to nighttime warming from LAI increases. In other climatic zones, daytime cooling, and DLSTR decline, was induced by increased LAI. Biophysically, the pathway from air temperature heats the surface through sensible heat and increased downward longwave radiation during day and night, while the pathway from LAI cools the surface by enhancing energy redistribution into latent heat rather than sensible heat during the daytime. These empirical findings of diverse asymmetric responses could help calibrate and improve biophysical models of diurnal surface temperature feedback in response to vegetation cover changes in different climate zones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Vegetation Representation Influences Projected Streamflow Changes in the Colorado River Basin

Vegetation parameters for the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model were recently updated using observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Previous work showed that these MODIS-based parameters improved VIC evapotranspiration simulations when compared to eddy covariance observations. Due to the importance of evapotranspiration within the Colorado River basin, this study provided a basin-by-basin calibration of VIC soil parameters with updated MODIS-based vegetation parameters to improve streamflow simulations. Interestingly, while both configurations had similar historic streamflow performance, end-of-century hydrologic projections, driven by 29 downscaled global climate models under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario, differed between the two configurations. The calibrated MODIS-based configuration had an ensemble mean that simulated little change in end-of-century annual streamflow volume (+0.4%) at Lees Ferry, Arizona, relative to the historical period (1960–2005). In contrast, the previous VIC configuration, which is used to inform decisions about future water resources in the Colorado River basin, projected an 11.7% decrease in annual streamflow. Both VIC configurations simulated similar amounts of evapotranspiration in the historical period. However, the MODIS-based VIC configuration did not show as much of an increase in evapotranspiration by the end of the century, primarily within the upper basin’s forested areas. Differences in evapotranspiration projections were the result of the MODIS-based vegetation parameters having lower leaf area index values and less forested area compared to previous vegetation estimates used in recent Colorado River basin hydrologic projections. These results highlight the need to accurately characterize vegetation and better constrain climate sensitivities in hydrologic models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Systemic effects of rising atmospheric vapor pressure deficit on plant physiology and productivity

Abstract Earth is currently undergoing a global increase in atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD), a trend which is expected to continue as climate warms. This phenomenon has been associated with productivity decreases in ecosystems and yield penalties in crops, with these losses attributed to photosynthetic limitations arising from decreased stomatal conductance. Such VPD increases, however, have occurred over decades, which raises the possibility that stomatal acclimation to VPD plays an important role in determining plant productivity under high VPD. Furthermore, evidence points to more far‐ranging and complex effects of elevated VPD on plant physiology, extending to the anatomical, biochemical, and developmental levels, which could vary substantially across species. Because these complex effects are typically not considered in modeling frameworks, we conducted a quantitative literature review documenting temperature‐independent VPD effects on 112 species and 59 traits and physiological variables, in order to develop an integrated and mechanistic physiological framework. We found that VPD increase reduced yield and primary productivity, an effect that was partially mediated by stomatal acclimation, and also linked with changes in leaf anatomy, nutrient, and hormonal status. The productivity decrease was also associated with negative effects on reproductive development, and changes in architecture and growth rates that could decrease the evaporative surface or minimize embolism risk. Cross‐species quantitative relationships were found between levels of VPD increase and trait responses, and we found differences across plant groups, indicating that future VPD impacts will depend on community assembly and crop functional diversity. Our analysis confirms predictions arising from the hydraulic corollary to Darcy's law, outlines a systemic physiological framework of plant responses to rising VPD, and provides recommendations for future research to better understand and mitigate VPD‐mediated climate change effects on ecosystems and agro‐systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Surface Water Mass Transformation in the Southern Ocean: The Role of Eddies Revisited

The water mass transformation (WMT) framework describes how water of one class, such as a discrete interval of density, is converted into another class via air–sea fluxes or interior mixing processes. Here, this paper investigates how this process is modified at the surface when mesoscale ocean eddies are present, using a state-of-the-art high-resolution climate model with reasonable fidelity in the Southern Ocean. The method employed is to coarse-grain the high-resolution model fields to remove eddy signatures, and compare the results with those from the full model fields. This method shows that eddies reduced the WMT by 2–4 Sv (10%–20%; 1 Sv ≡ 10 6 m 3 s −1 ) over a wide range of densities, from typical values of 20 Sv in the smoothed case. The corresponding water mass formation was reduced by 40% at one particular density increment, namely, between 1026.4 and 1026.5 kg m −3 , which corresponds to the lighter end of the range of Indian Ocean Mode Water in the model. The effect of eddies on surface WMT is decomposed into three terms: direct modulation of the density outcrops, then indirectly, by modifying the air–sea density flux, and the combined effect of the two, akin to a covariance. It is found that the first and third terms dominate, i.e., smoothing the outcrops alone has a significant effect, as does the combination of smoothing both outcrops and density flux distributions, but smoothing density flux fields alone has little effect. Results from the coarse-graining method are compared to an alternative approach of temporally averaging the data. Implications for climate model resolution are also discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Raman Lidar (RL) Instrument Handbook

The Raman lidar at the ARM Climate Research Facility (ACRF) Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility (SGPRL) is an active, ground-based laser remote sensing instrument that measures height and time resolved profiles of water vapor mixing ratio and several cloud- and aerosol-related quantities. The system is a non-commercial custom-built instrument developed by Sandia National Laboratories specifically for the ARM Program. It is fully computer automated, and will run unattended for many days following a brief (~5-minute) startup period. The self-contained system (requiring only external electrical power) is housed in a climate-controlled 8’x8’x20’ standard shipping container.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Availability of state-level climate change projection resources for use in site-level risk assessment

In recent years, incorporating climate change considerations has become an important focus of organizations’ resilience planning and risk assessment efforts, including United States federal agencies. This has led to an increasing demand for higher-resolution and higher-quality climate projection information that is easy to understand for non-expert users. In particular, there is a demand for information about how climate change may affect high-impact, low-frequency (HILF) hazards that are central to risk assessments focused on infrastructure. While national-level resources like the National Climate Assessment provide information on climate impacts for different sectors and regions in the United States, downscaled information with location-specific context is often required for site-level resilience planning. As higher-resolution and higher-quality climate resources continue to be developed at the state level, it is imperative to understand ongoing and planned efforts, as well as key drivers for developing these state-level resources. Based primarily on stakeholder input from climate experts from 31 states, we identify key state-level climate resources, as well as drivers accelerating the development of these resources. We assess the availability of climate change resources, specifically those with information about HILF events that have been developed at the state level and can support users in conducting site-level resilience planning. We identify three key drivers or predictors for the development of climate change resources at the state level: (1) existence of state laws, mandates, Executive Orders, and other state policies, (2) existence of university partnerships; and (3) the makeup of the stakeholder groups (in terms of dominant discipline/expertise) participating in the effort. The diverse state strategies and resources surveyed in this study could support the incorporation of higher-resolution climate information into site-level planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Metrics for evaluating tropical cyclones in climate data

This manuscript describes a software suite that can be used for objective evaluation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in gridded climate data. Using cyclone trajectories derived from 6-hourly data, a comprehensive set of metrics is defined to systematically compare and contrast products to one another. In addition to annual TC climatologies, attention is paid to spatial and temporal patterns of storm occurrence and intensity. Assessment can be performed either on the global scale or regional domains. Simple to visualize ‘scorecards’ allow for rapid credibility assessment. We showcase three key findings enabled by this suite. First, we compare the representation of TCs in seven current-generation global reanalyses and conclude that higher resolution models and those with TC-specific assimilation contain more accurate storm climatologies. Second, using a free-running Earth system model (ESM) we find that full basin refinement is required in variable-resolution configurations to adequately simulate North Atlantic TC frequency. Furthermore, upstream refinement over northern Africa offers little benefit in simulating storm occurrence but spatial genesis patterns are improved. Finally, we show that TCs simulated by ESMs can be highly sensitive to individual parameterizations in climate models, with North Atlantic TC metrics varying greatly depending on version of the Morrison-Gettelman microphysics package.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inequality in the availability of residential air conditioning across 115 US metropolitan areas

Continued climate change is increasing the frequency, severity, and duration of populations’ high temperature exposures. Indoor cooling is a key adaptation, especially in urban areas, where heat extremes are intensified—the urban heat island effect (UHI)—making residential air conditioning (AC) availability critical to protecting human health. In the United States, the differences in residential AC prevalence from one metropolitan area to another is well understood, but its intra-urban variation is poorly characterized, obscuring neighborhood-scale variability in populations’ heat vulnerability and adaptive capacity. We address this gap by constructing empirically derived probabilities of residential AC for 45,995 census tracts across 115 metropolitan areas. Within cities, AC is unequally distributed, with census tracts in the urban “core” exhibiting systematically lower prevalence than their suburban counterparts. Moreover, this disparity correlates strongly with multiple indicators of social vulnerability and summer daytime surface UHI intensity, highlighting the challenges that vulnerable urban populations face in adapting to climate-change driven heat stress amplification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ectomycorrhizal and Dark Septate Fungal Associations of Pinyon Pine Are Differentially Affected by Experimental Drought and Warming

Changing climates can cause shifts in temperature and precipitation, resulting in warming and drought in some regions. Although each of these factors has been shown to detrimentally affect forest ecosystems worldwide, information on the impacts of the combined effects of warming and drought is lacking. Forest trees rely on mutualistic root-associated fungi that contribute significantly to plant health and protection against climate stresses. We used a six-year, ecosystem-scale temperature and precipitation manipulation experiment targeted to simulate the climate in 2100 in the Southwestern United States to quantify the effects of drought, warming and combined drought and warming on the root colonization (abundance), species composition and diversity of ectomycorrhizal fungi (EMF), and dark septate fungal endophytes in a widespread woodland tree, pinyon pine (Pinus edulis E.). Our results show that pinyon shoot growth after 6 years of these treatments was reduced more by drought than warming. The combined drought and warming treatment reduced the abundance and diversity of EMF more than either treatment alone. Individual ectomycorrhizal fungal taxa, including the drought tolerant Cenococcum geophilum, were present in all treatments but the combined drought and warming treatment. The combined drought and warming treatment also reduced the abundance of dark septate endophytes (DSE), but did not affect their diversity or species composition. The current year shoot growth of the trees correlated positively with ectomycorrhizal fungal diversity, highlighting the importance of diversity in mutualistic relationships to plant growth. Our results suggest that EMF may be more important than DSE to aboveground growth in P. edulis, but also more susceptible to the negative effects of combined climate stressors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Diminishing seasonality of subtropical water availability in a warmer world dominated by soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks

Global warming is expected to cause wet seasons to get wetter and dry seasons to get drier, which would have broad social and ecological implications. However, the extent to which this seasonal paradigm holds over land remains unclear. Here we examine seasonal changes in surface water availability (precipitation minus evaporation, P–E) from CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections. While the P–E seasonal cycle does broadly intensify over much of the land surface, ~20% of land area experiences a diminished seasonal cycle, mostly over subtropical regions and the Amazon. Using land–atmosphere coupling experiments, we demonstrate that 63% of the seasonality reduction is driven by seasonally varying soil moisture (SM) feedbacks on P–E. Declining SM reduces evapotranspiration and modulates circulation to enhance moisture convergence and increase P–E in the dry season but not in the wet season. Our results underscore the importance of SM–atmosphere feedbacks for seasonal water availability changes in a warmer climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Energy Justice Goals in the Power Sector: Developing and Using Metrics

New policy goals are explicitly guiding the future grid toward greater energy equity. At the same time, policy goals also guide the grid toward decarbonization and resilience, while maintaining cost, security, and reliability cornerstone requirements. In conclusion, these pressures create a dilemma: moving urgently to address climate change and respond to energy disruptions, but also slowly to engage communities on the climate frontlines in earnest.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Future of Supercells in the United States

A supercell is a distinct type of intense, long-lived thunderstorm that is defined by its quasi-steady, rotating updraft. Supercells are responsible for most damaging hail and deadly tornadoes, causing billions of dollars in losses and hundreds of casualties annually. This research uses high-resolution, convection-permitting climate simulations across 15-yr epochs that span the twenty-first century to assess how supercells may change across the United States. Specifically, the study explores how late-twentieth-century supercell populations compare with their late-twenty-first-century counterparts for two—intermediate and pessimistic—anthropogenic climate change trajectories. An algorithm identifies, segments, and tracks supercells in the simulation output using updraft helicity, which measures the magnitude of corkscrew flow through a storm’s updraft and is a common proxy for supercells. Results reveal that supercells will be more frequent and intense in future climates, with robust spatiotemporal shifts in their populations. Supercells are projected to become more numerous in regions of the eastern United States, while decreasing in frequency in portions of the Great Plains. Supercell risk is expected to escalate outside of the traditional severe storm season, with supercells and their perils likely to increase in late winter and early spring months under both emissions scenarios. Conversely, the latter part of the severe storm season may be curtailed, with supercells expected to decrease midsummer through early fall. These results suggest the potential for more significant tornadoes, hail, and extreme rainfall that, when combined with an increasingly vulnerable society, may produce disastrous consequences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A species’ response to spatial climatic variation does not predict its response to climate change

The dominant paradigm for assessing ecological responses to climate change assumes that future states of individuals and populations can be predicted by current, species-wide performance variation across spatial climatic gradients. However, if the fates of ecological systems are better predicted by past responses to in situ climatic variation through time, this current analytical paradigm may be severely misleading. Empirically testing whether spatial or temporal climate responses better predict how species respond to climate change has been elusive, largely due to restrictive data requirements. Here, we leverage a newly collected network of ponderosa pine tree-ring time series to test whether statistically inferred responses to spatial versus temporal climatic variation better predict how trees have responded to recent climate change. When compared to observed tree growth responses to climate change since 1980, predictions derived from spatial climatic variation were wrong in both magnitude and direction. This was not the case for predictions derived from climatic variation through time, which were able to replicate observed responses well. Future climate scenarios through the end of the 21st century exacerbated these disparities. These results suggest that the currently dominant paradigm of forecasting the ecological impacts of climate change based on spatial climatic variation may be severely misleading over decadal to centennial timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian characterization of uncertainties surrounding fluvial flood hazard estimates

Fluvial floods drive severe risk to riverine communities. There is strong evidence of increasing flood hazards in many regions around the world. The choice of methods and assumptions used in flood hazard estimates can impact the design of risk management strategies. In this study, we characterize the expected flood hazards conditioned on the uncertain model structures, model parameters, and prior distributions of the parameters. We construct a Bayesian framework for river stage return level estimation using a nonstationary statistical model that relies exclusively on the Indian Ocean Dipole Index. We show that ignoring uncertainties can lead to biased estimation of expected flood hazards. We find that the considered model parametric uncertainty is more influential than model structures and model priors. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating uncertainty in extreme flood stage estimates, and are of practical use for informing water infrastructure designs in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Active Layer and Moisture Measurements for Intensive Site 0 and 1, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska

Thaw depth, relative dielectric permittivity, and soil temperature were collected along three transects within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska. Measurements were acquired along the transect at 3 m intervals on 2011-09-25, 2011-09-26, 2012-07-18, 2012-09-30, 2014-07-02, 2014-08-15, and 2014-09-14 for the L2 transect (intensive site 0), which is about 470 m long. Similarly, measurements were collected every 3 m on 2012-09-30, 2013-09-30, 2014-07-02, 2014-08-14, and 2014-09-23, and every 1 m on 2013-09-30 along the AB transect (intensive site 1) which is about 500 m long. File types in the package are all csv spreadsheets, following the ESS-DIVE csv guidelines (ESS-DIVE CSV v1), organized by transect name, with accompanying data dictionary files containing the filename suffix "_dd" (also csv format). Data collection details can be found in the Methods description of the metadata record. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wide range of possible trajectories of North Atlantic climate in a warming world

Decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean impacts regional and global climate, yet changes in internal decadal variability under anthropogenic radiative forcing remain largely unexplored. Here we use the Community Earth System Model 2 Large Ensemble under historical and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3-7.0 future radiative forcing scenarios and show that the ensemble spread in northern North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) more than doubles during the mid-twenty-first century, highlighting an exceptionally wide range of possible climate states. Furthermore, there are strikingly distinct trajectories in these SSTs, arising from differences in the North Atlantic deep convection among ensemble members starting by 2030. We propose that these are stochastically triggered and subsequently amplified by positive feedbacks involving coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice interactions. Freshwater forcing associated with global warming seems necessary for activating these feedbacks, accentuating the impact of external forcing on internal variability. Further investigation on seven additional large ensembles affirms the robustness of our findings. By monitoring these mechanisms in real time and extending dynamical model predictions after positive feedbacks activate, we may achieve skillful long-lead North Atlantic decadal predictions that are effective for multiple decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Influence of Lake Ice Biases in Reanalysis Data on Downscaled Climate Simulations over the Great Lakes Region

This data package contains observation-based and model-simulated datasets (all provided in NetCDF format) for evaluating how wintertime lake-ice representation affects regional weather and climate over the Laurentian Great Lakes (freshwater lake ecosystem) during the high–ice-cover winter of 2009. The observational component includes: (1) Stage IV gridded precipitation at 4 km, hourly resolution for January–February 2009 over the Great Lakes region (radar–gauge multisensor precipitation analyses); (2) Great Lakes Surface Environmental Analysis (GLSEA) satellite-derived lake-ice coverage at 1.3 km, daily resolution for the 2009 winter months, providing ice coverage over Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario; and (3) in situ measurements at the Standard Rock site on Lake Superior from the Great Lakes Evaporation Network (GLEN) at hourly resolution, including near-surface atmospheric variables and sensible and latent heat fluxes (air–lake exchange) at a fixed point location. The modeling component provides corresponding fields from two simulations, both archived at 4 km, hourly resolution: a standalone Weather Research Forecasting model (WRF) run driven by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5 (ERA5), and a two-way coupled model using WRF and the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (WRF-FVCOM, a 3-D hydrodynamic lake model). These outputs include variables relevant to air–lake interaction and lake-effect processes (e.g., near-surface temperature, humidity, wind, precipitation, and surface turbulent fluxes), enabling direct comparison with the observational datasets. Users can analyze and visualize these NetCDF files with common tools such as Python (e.g., xarray, netCDF4, numpy, pandas), NCO/CDO, Panoply, or ncview; NetCDF variables can also be converted to other formats (e.g., CSV, GeoTIFF) using these utilities.

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATU↗
DOE OSTI2022

CO2 CH4 flux Air temperature Soil temperature and Soil moisture, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska 2013 ver. 1

This dataset consists of field measurements of CO2 and CH4 flux, as well as soil properties made during 2013 in Areas A-D of Intensive Site 1 at the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE) Arctic site near Barrow, Alaska. Included are i) measurements of CO2 and CH4 flux made from June to September (ii) Calculation of corresponding Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) and CH4 exchange (transparent minus opaque) between atmosphere and the ecosystem (ii) Measurements of Los Gatos Research (LGR) chamber air temperature made from June to September (ii) measurements of surface layer depth, type of surface layer, soil temperature and soil moisture from June to September. This data package contains two *.csv files and one *.pdf file. NGEE Arctic Project Summary: The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗