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At least 199 records · Page 11

Development of lean, efficient, and fast physics-framed deep-learning-based proxy models for subsurface carbon storage

In this work, we present deep-learning-based surrogate models for CCUS developed with four different algorithms and a physics-framed two-phase flow problem involving displacement of water by CO 2 . The deep-learning models were trained using 3D datasets describing the pressure plume, CO 2 saturation plume, and water extraction rate generated by numerical simulation. The hyperparameters defining the architecture of the neural networks were optimized to determine the slimmest network size and training parameters that give the most efficient performance at the least training cost. To develop a robust model that closely mimics the governing physical laws, the discretized form of the two-phase fluid transport equation was used to formulate the supervised deep-learning task. The algorithms investigated in this study predicted the data to above 95% accuracy, with the multi-layer perceptron model demonstrating the best performance by balancing training speed, prediction time, and prediction accuracy with lean network capacity. Furthermore, the surrogate models simultaneously predict reservoir pressure and CO 2 saturation in every grid block, including the surface well extraction rate and bottomhole pressure, at all simulation times for a given static model realization in just a few seconds on a standard desktop computer. A key outcome of this study is that limits can be placed on network design parameters to avoid over designing neural networks, with associated efficiencies in training and prediction times. This is very useful because large volumes of data may be generated in CCUS projects and over-design of neural network architectures imposes penalties that are antithetical to the goal of near-real time forecasting.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Fire effects on the persistence of soil organic matter and long-term carbon storage

One paradigm in biogeochemistry is that frequent disturbance tends to deplete carbon (C) in soil organic matter (SOM) by reducing biomass inputs and promoting losses. However, disturbance by fire has challenged this paradigm because soil C responses to frequent and/or intense fires are highly variable, despite observed declines in biomass inputs. Here, we review recent advances to illustrate that fire-driven changes in decomposition, mediated by altered SOM stability, are an important compensatory process offsetting declines in aboveground biomass pools. Fire alters the stability of SOM by affecting both the physicochemical properties of the SOM and the environmental drivers of decomposition, potentially offsetting C lost via combustion, but the mechanisms affecting the SOM stability differ across ecosystems. Thus, shifting our focus from a top-down view of fire impacting C cycling via changes in plant biomass to a bottom-up view of changes in decomposition may help to elucidate counterintuitive trends in the response of SOM to burning. Finally, given that 70% of global topsoil C is in fire-prone regions, using fire to promote SOM stability may be an important nature-based climate solution to increase C storage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fiber optic system for direct detection of CO2 leakage in carbon storage wells

The feasibility study focused on the development of new fiber for distributed chemical sensing (DCS) that will allow direct detection of CO 2 leakages in the environment. This is particularly important for monitoring well integrity for carbon capture and storage (CSS), to provide early warning for an incoming well failure and potential CO 2 leaking through it. We proposed Raman or IR interrogation within gas-filled Holey Fibers (HoFs) interleaved with standard solid core fibers and Fiber Bragg Grating (FBG) sections, so that the location and concentration of the gases would be provided simultaneously by means of reflectometry. The methodology would overcome current roadblocks to using fiber optics for CO 2 (and other gases) detection in wells with direct in-situ measurements of concentration along with other important parameters such as temperature and pressure as the baseline of environment background.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Fiber optic system for direct detection of CO 2 leakage in carbon storage wells (Abbreviated Final Report)

The feasibility study focused on the development of new fiber for distributed chemical sensing that will allow direct detection of CO2 leakages in the environment. This is particularly important for monitoring well integrity for carbon capture and storage (CSS), which can provide early warning for an incoming well failure and potential CO2 leaking through it. We proposed Raman or IR interrogation within gas-filled Holey Fibers (HoFs) interleaved with Fiber Bragg Grating (FBG) sections, so that the location and concentration of the gases would be provided simultaneously. The methodology would overcome current roadblocks to using fiber optics for CO2 (and other gases) detection in wells with direct in-situ measurements of concentration along with other important parameters such as temperature and pressure. We were able to assess commercially available IR/Raman hollow core fiber and demonstrated detection of CO2 through them in our controlled environment setups at various pressure conditions. We have also established the ability of drilling precisely with fs-lases side holes to enable penetration of CO2 into the hollow core fiber and reduce diffusion rates. Open joint collars were also explored with double functionality: to obtain splice to solid core fiber critical for field deployment and create gas ingress locations. Both diffusion-only and pressurized fiber system have been constructed following COMSOL based semi-hybrid optical /fluidodynamics models. FBGs have been identified and procured and characterized. Along the work we leveraged internal modeling/design, photonics/laser characterization, optical fiber fabrication, and AM lab capabilities to design, develop and test in-house components or assemblies. Our results indicate the potential of HoF for CO2 downhole direct detection.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A trade-off between plant and soil carbon storage under elevated CO 2

Terrestrial ecosystems remove about 30 per cent of the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emitted by human activities each year, yet the persistence of this carbon sink depends partly on how plant biomass and soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks respond to future increases in atmospheric CO 2 . Although plant biomass often increases in elevated CO 2 (eCO 2 ) experiments, SOC has been observed to increase, remain unchanged or even decline. The mechanisms that drive this variation across experiments remain poorly understood, creating uncertainty in climate projections. In this study we synthesized data from 108 eCO 2 experiments and found that the effect of eCO 2 on SOC stocks is best explained by a negative relationship with plant biomass: when plant biomass is strongly stimulated by eCO 2 , SOC storage declines; conversely, when biomass is weakly stimulated, SOC storage increases. This trade-off appears to be related to plant nutrient acquisition, in which plants increase their biomass by mining the soil for nutrients, which decreases SOC storage. We found that, overall, SOC stocks increase with eCO 2 in grasslands (8 ± 2 per cent) but not in forests (0 ± 2 per cent), even though plant biomass in grasslands increase less (9 ± 3 per cent) than in forests (23 ± 2 per cent). Ecosystem models do not reproduce this trade-off, which implies that projections of SOC may need to be revised.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Peat Archives in the Hudson Estuary - Marsh Formation, Carbon Storage and Release, and Resilience

We target deep peat stores (at least 8 meters) of carbon in the lower Hudson Estuary, which formed as the glacial fjord became an estuary with mid-Holocene sea level rise. These deep marshes play an extremely important role in the estuary health and stability in a changing climate. Never before have we faced the threats to coastal marshes that we are facing today, and the resulting sedimentation rates, inorganic/organic component histories, pollen, macrofossil, isotopic, and XRF data reveal critical information about past vegetation and climate change. Long-term shifts in organic/inorganic storage appear to be linked to drought, as watershed erosion results in more sand, silt and clay in the marshes. Climatic shifts often result in regional watershed shifts in vegetation, both locally and regionally. Understanding how these marshes are linked to human impact (disturbance, invasive species, higher nitrogen, heavy metal pollution, dams) over the last four centuries is critical to providing management of these key ecosystems, and their preservation as sea level rises. Quantification of processes that cause carbon degradation and release from these wetlands to the estuary is also key to this investigation. Peat loss would contribute to heavy metal pollution in the estuary as well as carbon loss. Young investigators from secondary schools in New York City participated in much of the fieldwork as part of the NASA/GISS NYC Research Initiative and the LDEO Secondary School Field Research Carbon Team.

Peteet, Dorothy M.↗

Enhancing carbon storage through proactively managing fire-prone coniferous mountain forests

Mountain ecosystems typically serve as carbon (C) sinks. However, studies also suggest that they could be C sources due to climate warming, drought and insect-related mortality, wildfires, and management actions. We applied the Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS), a process-based dynamic vegetation-ecosystem model, to investigate the role of ecosystem management in C storage under Mediterranean climate over the 21 st century. We modified LPJ-GUESS to include implementing mechanical thinning by vegetation size classes, components, and types along with a new mechanistic fire-occurrence model that accounts for wind speed and lightning ignition. Simulations show that mechanical thinning or prescribed fire performed 5-20 years in advance of a high-severity wildfire reduced direct wildfire C emissions by 38-66 %. Our results also show that long-term management actions repeated every 5-20 years, including thinning relatively small trees (diameters up to 7 inches or ∼178 mm), can maintain stable C levels in the forest and lower dead-fuel amounts. We found that, although prescribed fire mitigated wildfire severity, ecosystem C storage from reduced wildfire emissions can be outweighed by the added emissions from the prescribed fire themselves. Thinning plus removing and sequestering the thinned biomass can ensure that forests act as net C sinks through the end of the 21 st century. However, addition of prescribed fire is needed to reduce understory and lower the projected extent of high-severity wildfire. Achieving the competing goals of reducing wildfire and making the Sierra Nevada long-term C sink can be advanced through carefully coordinated thinning, sequestration of thinned biomass, and prescribed fire.

Climate solutions↗

Assessing the Effect of a Deep‐Rooted Grass on Belowground Carbon Storage in Cultivated Land: Insights From a Multi‐Site US Study

Agriculture depletes soil organic carbon (SOC), partly due to the exclusion of deep-rooted perennials. Reintroducing deep-rooted perennials to cultivated land may help to mitigate SOC loss. We quantified the effect of deep roots on SOC by comparing 8 to 30 year-old stands of switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L .) with paired annual row crop fields at 12 sites across the central and eastern USA. We hypothesized that switchgrass would store more root C and SOC than neighboring shallow-rooted annual crops, and that these effects would extend deeper than 30 cm. We also evaluated whether switchgrass stimulates decomposition of SOC at depth using radiocarbon ( 14 C). Finally, we explored whether the effect of switchgrass on SOC is moderated by soil chemical and physical properties. While the effect of switchgrass on SOC in the surface 100 cm was positive at most sites, the average effect was not statistically significant (difference in SOC = 0.6 kg C m −2 [95% CI −0.8 to +1.9 kg C m −2 ]). By contrast, we found that root C was consistently more abundant under switchgrass, yielding an estimated additional 0.6 kg C m −2 in the surface 100 cm of soil [95% CI +0.5 to +0.7 kg C m −2 ]. 14 C measurements suggested that root C inputs were adding to existing SOC without stimulating decomposition. The effect of switchgrass on belowground C was not strongly related to any of the soil properties that we evaluated. Our observations show that root C can contribute substantially to belowground C stocks when deep-rooted perennials replace shallow-rooted crops.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Deforestation-induced climate change reduces carbon storage in remaining tropical forests

Abstract Biophysical effects from deforestation have the potential to amplify carbon losses but are often neglected in carbon accounting systems. Here we use both Earth system model simulations and satellite–derived estimates of aboveground biomass to assess losses of vegetation carbon caused by the influence of tropical deforestation on regional climate across different continents. In the Amazon, warming and drying arising from deforestation result in an additional 5.1 ± 3.7% loss of aboveground biomass. Biophysical effects also amplify carbon losses in the Congo (3.8 ± 2.5%) but do not lead to significant additional carbon losses in tropical Asia due to its high levels of annual mean precipitation. These findings indicate that tropical forests may be undervalued in carbon accounting systems that neglect climate feedbacks from surface biophysical changes and that the positive carbon–climate feedback from deforestation-driven climate change is higher than the feedback originating from fossil fuel emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Developing a Prototype Methodology to Rank CO2-EOR Wells and Assess Their Reuse Potential for Geologic Carbon Storage

This paper presents a prototype methodology to assess the possible transition of Class II carbon dioxide-enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) wells to Class VI wells. The focus is on wellbore construction materials—casing, cement, tubing, and the packer—and includes comprehensive workflows to evaluate these materials, with primary emphasis on compliance with Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Class VI well construction and conversion guidelines. These workflows systematically assess material properties and performance criteria to ensure regulatory compliance and optimize long-term wellbore integrity and functionality. Utilizing Python scripts and JavaScript Object Notation (JSON) representations, the study automates checks on digitized Texas Railroad Commission (TRRC) data to rank wells based on workflow criteria. By emphasizing critical factors such as casing integrity, cementing techniques, tubing compatibility, and packer selection, the methodology helps well owners and operators prioritize wells for potential reuse as CO2 injection wells. Given limitations in digitized data, manual user verification is required in some sections. Future improvements include integrating non-digitized data through web scraping and machine learning techniques. This research serves as a practical guide for stakeholders, supporting environmental compliance and sustainable well operations.

geologic carbon sequestration↗

Determining the extent of potential fugitive fluid migration from geologic carbon storage in hydrocarbon-bearing reservoirs: Insights from one-dimensional numerical modeling

Numerical modeling of Geologic Carbon Sequestration in permeable reservoirs initially containing hydrocarbons is conducted using the multi-phase, multi-component thermohydrologic simulator TOGA (TOUGH Oil, Gas, Aqueous; TOUGH stands for Transport Of Unsaturated Groundwater and Heat), to determine how phase and composition of the original fluids influence the extent of the zone where upward fugitive fluid migration could potentially occur, denoted R f . The area within R f comprises regions of substantially elevated pressure and free-phase CO 2 saturation, where a breach in reservoir sealing capacity would lead to upward fugitive fluid migration. The model examines the conditions within the storage reservoir that could lead to fugitive flow, but does not model the fugitive flow itself. A one-dimensional radial model of the storage reservoir is used, and three initial phase conditions are considered: single-phase aqueous, two-phase gas-aqueous, and three-phase oil-gas-aqueous. Components that may be present are H 2 O, CO 2 , CH 4 , C 4 H 10 , and C 10 H 22 . The most important factors controlling Rf are (1) the initial gas-phase saturation within the reservoir, and (2) the lateral extent of multi-phase initial conditions, particularly CO 2 . The composition of liquid and gas phases has a secondary effect. The impact of reservoir depth, thickness, injection rate, and hydrologic properties are also briefly examined, with thickness (or equivalently injection rate) having the biggest effect. These results can help to understand important trends in potential response of CO 2 -EOR fields being considered for dedicated CO 2 storage.

CO₂ plume migration↗

Effects of experimental nitrogen deposition on soil organic carbon storage in Southern California drylands

Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition is enriching soils with N across biomes. Soil N enrichment can increase plant productivity and affect microbial activity, thereby increasing soil organic carbon (SOC), but such responses vary across biomes. Drylands cover ~45% of Earth's land area and store ~33% of global SOC contained in the top 1 m of soil. Nitrogen fertilization could, therefore, disproportionately impact carbon (C) cycling, yet whether dryland SOC storage increases with N remains unclear. To understand how N enrichment may change SOC storage, we separated SOC into plant–derived, particulate organic C (POC), and largely microbially derived, mineral–associated organic C (MAOC) at four N deposition experimental sites in Southern California. Theory suggests that N enrichment increases the efficiency by which microbes build MAOC (C stabilization efficiency) if soil pH stays constant. But if soils acidify, a common response to N enrichment, then microbial biomass and enzymatic organic matter decay may decrease, increasing POC but not MAOC. We found that N enrichment had no effect on C fractions except for a decrease in MAOC at one site. Specifically, despite reported increases in plant biomass in three sites and decreases in microbial biomass and extracellular enzyme activities in two sites that acidified, POC did not increase. Furthermore, microbial C use and stabilization efficiency increased in a non–acidified site, but without increasing MAOC. Instead, MAOC decreased by 16% at one of the sites that acidified, likely because it lost 47% of the exchangeable calcium (Ca) relative to controls. Indeed, MAOC was strongly and positively affected by Ca, which directly and, through its positive effect on microbial biomass, explained 58% of variation in MAOC. Finally, long–term effects of N fertilization on dryland SOC storage appear abiotic in nature, such that drylands where Ca–stabilization of SOC is prevalent and soils acidify, are most at risk for significant C loss.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Combining organic amendments with enhanced rock weathering shifts soil carbon storage in croplands

Enhanced rock weathering (ERW) involves applying crushed silicate minerals to cropland soils to remove carbon dioxide and stabilize the global climate. If practiced widely, ERW has the potential to mitigate climate change and improve soil health and crop productivity. However, most ERW studies emphasize inorganic carbon (IC) chemistry, using model-based estimates and short-term mesocosms. Limited field data exist on how ERW interacts with organic amendments to affect organic carbon (C) cycling in soils. In a three-year field study in conventionally managed, irrigated maize fields, we monitored how key soil variables responded to crushed rock-alone, and in combination with compost and/or biochar. We measured weathering indicators (pH, major cations, and IC contents) and organic fractions, including particulate organic matter (POM), mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM), microbial biomass C, and water-extractable organic C. Rock-alone treatments increased weathering proxies (pH and IC) and showed an increasing trend in POM and MAOM, relative to control. In contrast, combining crushed rock with organic amendments resulted in lower soil organic C and nitrogen (N) concentrations (in both POM and MAOM) compared to organic amendments alone, though IC increased in the rock+compost treatment. Combining rock with both compost and biochar (compost/biochar) significantly lowered MAOM-N compared to compost/biochar alone. Overall, co-applying rock with organic inputs may promote weathering and C accrual but slow the accrual rate of organic C and N relative to organic amendments alone. Quantifying these trade-offs over multiple years and scales is critical to integrating ERW with existing soil health practices and climate mitigation strategies.

Biological and medical sciences↗

SMART Deliverable 6.1.2a: Application of the ORION tool to the IBDP Carbon Storage Site

Forecasting and managing potential induced seismic activity is one of the challenges facing commercialscale geologic carbon sequestration (GCS), as well as other geologic energy extraction and byproduct disposal technologies. Historically, the process to develop robust, science-based forecasts of induced seismicity has required an integrated effort from experts in seismology, geomechanics, and reservoir engineering to manage data, develop and evaluate models of subsurface processes, and to calibrate and interpret the results from a range of models to understand site behavior relative to prescribed standards and in the context of uncertainty in geologic characterization data, forecasting models, and operational scenario uncertainty. The Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity (ORION) toolkit is an open-source, observation-based forecasting toolkit that is being co-developed by two U.S. DOE-funded initiatives: the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) and the Scienceinformed Machine Learning for Accelerating Real Time Decisions in Subsurface Applications (SMART) Initiative. ORION is designed to provide functionality to support decision making about seismic hazard analysis and risk management for GCS stakeholders ranging from the public to site operators to expert seismologists. The tool, which is written as open-source code in the Python programming language, is composed of a desktop graphical user interface (GUI) and an underlying forecasting engine. The forecasting engine uses available reservoir properties, well and fluid injection scenario details, and observed seismic catalog data as inputs to produce a set of temporal and spatio-temporal seismic forecasts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗