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At least 199 records · Page 11

NAS Demand Predictions, Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) Compared with Other Forecasts

The current work incorporates the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) to predict the future demand for airline travel. TSAM is a multi-mode, national model that predicts the demand for all long distance travel at a county level based upon population and demographics. The model conducts a mode choice analysis to compute the demand for commercial airline travel based upon the traveler s purpose of the trip, value of time, cost and time of the trip,. The county demand for airline travel is then aggregated (or distributed) to the airport level, and the enplanement demand at commercial airports is modeled. With the growth in flight demand, and utilizing current airline flight schedules, the Fratar algorithm is used to develop future flight schedules in the NAS. The projected flights can then be flown through air transportation simulators to quantify the ability of the NAS to meet future demand. A major strength of the TSAM analysis is that scenario planning can be conducted to quantify capacity requirements at individual airports, based upon different future scenarios. Different demographic scenarios can be analyzed to model the demand sensitivity to them. Also, it is fairly well know, but not well modeled at the airport level, that the demand for travel is highly dependent on the cost of travel, or the fare yield of the airline industry. The FAA projects the fare yield (in constant year dollars) to keep decreasing into the future. The magnitude and/or direction of these projections can be suspect in light of the general lack of airline profits and the large rises in airline fuel cost. Also, changes in travel time and convenience have an influence on the demand for air travel, especially for business travel. Future planners cannot easily conduct sensitivity studies of future demand with the FAA TAF data, nor with the Boeing or Airbus projections. In TSAM many factors can be parameterized and various demand sensitivities can be predicted for future travel. These resulting demand scenarios can be incorporated into future flight schedules, therefore providing a quantifiable demand for flights in the NAS for a range of futures. In addition, new future airline business scenarios are investigated that illustrate when direct flights can replace connecting flights and larger aircraft can be substituted, only when justified by demand.

Viken, Jeff↗

Utilizing Traveler Demand Modeling to Predict Future Commercial Flight Schedules in the NAS

The current work incorporates the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) to predict the future demand for airline travel. TSAM is a multi-mode, national model that predicts the demand for all long distance travel at a county level based upon population and demographics. The model conducts a mode choice analysis to compute the demand for commercial airline travel based upon the traveler s purpose of the trip, value of time, cost and time of the trip,. The county demand for airline travel is then aggregated (or distributed) to the airport level, and the enplanement demand at commercial airports is modeled. With the growth in flight demand, and utilizing current airline flight schedules, the Fratar algorithm is used to develop future flight schedules in the NAS. The projected flights can then be flown through air transportation simulators to quantify the ability of the NAS to meet future demand. A major strength of the TSAM analysis is that scenario planning can be conducted to quantify capacity requirements at individual airports, based upon different future scenarios. Different demographic scenarios can be analyzed to model the demand sensitivity to them. Also, it is fairly well know, but not well modeled at the airport level, that the demand for travel is highly dependent on the cost of travel, or the fare yield of the airline industry. The FAA projects the fare yield (in constant year dollars) to keep decreasing into the future. The magnitude and/or direction of these projections can be suspect in light of the general lack of airline profits and the large rises in airline fuel cost. Also, changes in travel time and convenience have an influence on the demand for air travel, especially for business travel. Future planners cannot easily conduct sensitivity studies of future demand with the FAA TAF data, nor with the Boeing or Airbus projections. In TSAM many factors can be parameterized and various demand sensitivities can be predicted for future travel. These resulting demand scenarios can be incorporated into future flight schedules, therefore providing a quantifiable demand for flights in the NAS for a range of futures. In addition, new future airline business scenarios are investigated that illustrate when direct flights can replace connecting flights and larger aircraft can be substituted, only when justified by demand.

Viken, Jeff↗

Analysis of Convective Weather Impact on Pre-Departure Routing of Flights from Fort Worth Center to New York Center

In response to severe weather conditions, Traffic Managers specify flow constraints and reroutes to route air traffic around affected regions of airspace. Providing analysis and recommendations of available reroute options and associated airspace capacities would assist Traffic Managers in making more efficient decisions in response to convective weather. These recommendations can be developed by examining historical data to determine which previous reroute options were used in similar weather and traffic conditions. This paper describes the initial steps and methodology used towards this goal. The focus of this work is flights departing from Fort Worth Center destined for New York Center. Dominant routing structures used in the absence of convective weather are identified. A method to extract relevant features from the large volume of weather data available to quantify the impact of convective weather on this routing structure over a given time range is presented. Finally, a method of estimating flow rate capacity along commonly used routes during convective weather events is described. Results show that the flow rates drop exponentially as a function of the values of the proposed feature and that convective weather on the final third of the route was found to have a greater impact on the flow rate restriction than other portions of the route.

traffic flow management↗

Tools of the Future: How Decision Tree Analysis Will Impact Mission Planning

The universe is infinitely complex; however, the human mind has a finite capacity. The multitude of possible variables, metrics, and procedures in mission planning are far too many to address exhaustively. This is unfortunate because, in general, considering more possibilities leads to more accurate and more powerful results. To compensate, we can get more insightful results by employing our greatest tool, the computer. The power of the computer will be utilized through a technology that considers every possibility, decision tree analysis. Although decision trees have been used in many other fields, this is innovative for space mission planning. Because this is a new strategy, no existing software is able to completely accommodate all of the requirements. This was determined through extensive research and testing of current technologies. It was necessary to create original software, for which a short-term model was finished this summer. The model was built into Microsoft Excel to take advantage of the familiar graphical interface for user input, computation, and viewing output. Macros were written to automate the process of tree construction, optimization, and presentation. The results are useful and promising. If this tool is successfully implemented in mission planning, our reliance on old-fashioned heuristics, an error-prone shortcut for handling complexity, will be reduced. The computer algorithms involved in decision trees will revolutionize mission planning. The planning will be faster and smarter, leading to optimized missions with the potential for more valuable data.

Otterstatter, Matthew R.↗

Effect of flux penetration on the load capacity of passive superconducting bearings

A dramatic improvement has been made in the load capacity of a superconductor magnet pair. The measured load capacities that stood at 0.1 psi two years back were improved now to an impressive 40 psi. This improvement is mainly due to better processing techniques developed by the superconducting material processing community. The analysis indicates that, by using these processing techniques that efficiently prevent flux penetration, high load capacities were achieved. With these developments, it is possible to insert passive bearings into actual applications within the next few years.

Rao, Dantam K.↗

Control-structure-thermal interactions in analysis of lunar telescopes

The lunar telescope project was an excellent model for the CSTI study because a telescope is a very sensitive instrument, and thermal expansion or mechanical vibration of the mirror assemblies will rapidly degrade the resolution of the device. Consequently, the interactions are strongly coupled. The lunar surface experiences very large temperature variations that range from approximately -180 C to over 100 C. Although the optical assemblies of the telescopes will be well insulated, the temperature of the mirrors will inevitably fluctuate in a similar cycle, but of much smaller magnitude. In order to obtain images of high quality and clarity, allowable thermal deformations of any point on a mirror must be less than 1 micron. Initial estimates indicate that this corresponds to a temperature variation of much less than 1 deg through the thickness of the mirror. Therefore, a lunar telescope design will most probably include active thermal control, a means of controlling the shape of the mirrors, or a combination of both systems. Historically, the design of a complex vehicle was primarily a sequential process in which the basic structure was defined without concurrent detailed analyses or other subsystems. The basic configuration was then passed to the different teams responsible for each subsystem, and their task was to produce a workable solution without requiring major alterations to any principal components or subsystems. Consequently, the final design of the vehicle was not always the most efficient, owing to the fact that each subsystem design was partially constrained by the previous work. This procedure was necessary at the time because the analysis process was extremely time-consuming and had to be started over with each significant alteration of the vehicle. With recent advances in the power and capacity of small computers, and the parallel development of powerful software in structural, thermal, and control system analysis, it is now possible to produce very detailed analyses of intermediate designs in a much shorter period of time. The subsystems can thus be designed concurrently, and alterations in the overall design can be quickly adopted into each analysis; the design becomes an iterative process in which it is much easier to experiment with new ideas, configurations, and components. Concurrent engineering has the potential to produce efficient, highly capable designs because the effect of one subystem on another can be assessed in much more detail at a very early point in the program. The research program consisted of several tasks: scale a prototype telescope assembly to a 1 m aperture, develop a model of the telescope assembly by using finite element (FEM) codes that are available on site, determine structural deflections of the mirror surfaces due to the temperature variations, develop a prototype control system to maintain the proper shape of the optical elements, and most important of all, demonstrate the concurrent engineering approach with this example. In addition, the software used for the finite element models and thermal analysis was relatively new within the Program Development Office and had yet to be applied to systems this large or complex; understanding the software and modifying it for use with this project was also required. The I-DEAS software by Structural Dynamics Research Corporation (SDRC) was used to build the finite element models, and TMG developed by Maya Heat Transfer Technologies, Ltd. (which runs as an I-DEAS module) was used for the thermal model calculations. All control system development was accomplished with MATRIX(sub X) by Integrated Systems, Inc.

Thompson, Roger C.↗

Analysis of cryogenic propellant logistics.

Large launch vehicle cryogenic propellant logistics including storage and production capacity optimization, cost and heat loss analyses by computer simulation

PROPELLANT STORAGE↗

An analysis of bidirectional use of frequencies for satellite communications

The bi-directional use of frequencies allocated for space communications has the potential to double the orbit/spectrum capacity available. The technical feasibility of reverse band use (RBU) at C-band (4 GHz uplinks and 6 GHz downlinks) is studied. The analysis identifies the constraints under which both forward and reverse band use satellite systems can share the same frequencies with terrestrial, line of sight transmission systems. The results of the analysis show that RBU satellite systems can be similarly sized to forward band use (FBU) satellite systems. In addition, the orbital separation requirements between RBU and FBU satellite systems are examined. The analysis shows that a carrier to interference ratio of 45 dB can be maintained between RBU and FBU satellites separated by less than 0.5 deg., and that a carrier to interference ratio of 42 dB can be maintained in the antipodal case. Rain scatter propagation analysis shows that RBU and FBU earth stations require separation distances of less than 10 km at a rain rate of 13.5 mm/hr escalating to less than 100 km at a rain rate of 178 mm/hr for earth station antennas in the 3 to 10 m range.

Whyte, W. A., Jr.↗

Calorimetric determination of thermal parameters for the Li/BrCl in SOCl2 (BCX) chemistry

The heat capacity of a Li-BCX DD-cell was found to be dependent on its state of charge by drop calorimetry measurements. The method of drop calorimetry involves measuring the energy (joules) gained or lost from a sample that is transferred from a bath at temperature A to one at temperature B. The thermoneutral potential is defined as the cell potential where the cell electrochemical reactions are neither exothermic nor endothermic. A Hart scientific calorimeter system, Model No. S77XX, designed for heat conduction calorimetry and drop calorimetry was used. Calorimetric analysis yielded a thermoneutral potential of 4.14 volts and a cell heat capacity dependent on the state of charge.

Darcy, Eric C.↗

Short-Haul Revitalization Study Final Report

A feasibility study was performed for an advanced commercial short-haul aircraft to evaluate the potential for increased service for short-haul flights that operate out of regional and community airports. An analysis of potential origin-destination markets and trip distances resulted in a seat capacity selection of 48 passengers and a design range of 600 NM. A down-select of advanced technologies resulted in a hybrid-electric propulsion system being chosen as the primary enabling technology. A conceptual design of the advanced aircraft was developed, and a mission and sizing analysis was performed, comparing variants of the advanced aircraft with different levels of electrification. Fairly aggressive levels of electrification and battery specific energy are needed for the hybridelectric architecture to realize any benefit in terms of total energy cost for the 600 NM design mission. The development and operational costs were estimated for the advanced aircraft and compared to the baseline. This analysis demonstrated the negative effect of the cost to develop the hybrid-electric technology on the eventual operating cost. A market analysis was performed to determine possible passenger demand for the advanced shorthaul aircraft. According to the market analysis, there is potential demand for such an aircraft, but not necessarily in many of the smaller regional and community airports that were the intended beneficiaries of this new aircraft concept.

Marien, Ty V.↗

Microorganisms, Organic Carbon, and Their Relationship with Oxidant Activity in Hyper-Arid Mars-Like Soils: Implications for Soil Habitability

Soil samples from the hyper-arid region in the Atacama 23 Desert in Southern Peru (La Joya Desert) were analyzed for total and labile organic carbon (TOC & LOC), phospholipid fatty acids analysis (PLFA), quantitative real time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR), 4',6- diamidino-2-phenylindole (DAPI)-fluorescent microscopy, culturable microorganisms, and oxidant activity, in order to understand the relationship between the presence of organic matter and microorganisms in these types of soils. TOC content levels were similar to the labile pool of carbon suggesting the absence of recalcitrant carbon in these soils. The range of LOC was from 2 to 60 micro-g/g of soil. PLFA analysis indicated a maximum of 2.3 x 10(exp 5) cell equivalents/g. Culturing of soil extracts yielded 1.1 x 10(exp 2)-3.7 x 10(exp 3) CFU/g. qRT-PCR showed between 1.0 x 10(exp 2) and 8 x 10(exp 3) cells/g; and DAPI fluorescent staining indicated bacteria counts up to 5 x 104 cells/g. Arid and semiarid samples (controls) showed values between 10(exp 7) and 10(exp 11) cells/g with all of the methods used. Importantly, the concentration of microorganisms in hyper-arid soils did not show any correlation with the organic carbon content; however, there was a significant dependence on the oxidant activity present in these soil samples evaluated as the capacity to decompose sodium formate in 10 hours. We suggest that the analysis of oxidant activity could be a useful indicator of the microbial habitability in hyper-arid soils, obviating the need to measure water activity over time. This approach could be useful in astrobiological studies on other worlds.

Mars-like soils↗

Thermal/Pyrolysis Gas Flow Analysis of Carbon Phenolic Material

Provided in this study are predicted in-depth temperature and pyrolysis gas pressure distributions for carbon phenolic materials that are externally heated with a laser source. Governing equations, numerical techniques and comparisons to measured temperature data are also presented. Surface thermochemical conditions were determined using the Aerotherm Chemical Equilibrium (ACE) program. Surface heating simulation used facility calibrated radiative and convective flux levels. Temperatures and pyrolysis gas pressures are predicted using an upgraded form of the SINDA/CMA program that was developed by NASA during the Solid Propulsion Integrity Program (SPIP). Multispecie mass balance, tracking of condensable vapors, high heat rate kinetics, real gas compressibility and reduced mixture viscosity's have been added to the algorithm. In general, surface and in-depth temperature comparisons are very good. Specie partial pressures calculations show that a saturated water-vapor mixture is the main contributor to peak in-depth total pressure. Further, for most of the cases studied, the water-vapor mixture is driven near the critical point and is believed to significantly increase the local heat capacity of the composite material. This phenomenon if not accounted for in analysis models may lead to an over prediction in temperature response in charring regions of the material.

Clayton, J. Louie↗

An analysis of bi-directional use of frequencies for satellite communications

The bi-directional use of frequencies allocated for space communications has the potential to double the orbit/spectrum capacity available. The technical feasibility of reverse band use (RBU) at C-band (4 GHz uplinks and 6 GHz downlinks) is studied. The analysis identifies the constraints under which both forward and reverse band use satellite systems can share the same frequencies with terrestrial, line of sight transmission systems. The results of the analysis show that RBU satellite systems can be similarly sized to forward band use (FBU) satellite systems. In addition, the orbital separation requirements between RBU and FBU satellite systems are examined. The analysis shows that a carrier to interference ratio of 45 dB can be maintianed between RBU and FBU satellites separated by less than 0.5 deg., and that a carrier to interference ratio of 42 dB can be maintained in the antipodal case. Rain scatter propagation analysis shows that RBU and FBU Earth stations require separation distances fo less than 10 km at a rain rate of 13.5 mm/hr escalating to less than 100 km at a rain rate of 178 mm/hr for Earth station antennas in the 3 to 10 m range.

Whyte, W. A., Jr.↗

An analysis of bi-directional use of frequencies for satellite communications

The bi-directional use of frequencies allocated for space communications has the potential to double the orbit/spectrum capacity available. The technical feasibility of reverse band use (RBU) at C-band (4 GHz uplinks and 6 GHz downlinks) is studied. The analysis identifies the constraints under which both forward and reverse band use satellite systems can share the same frequencies with terrestrial, line of sight transmission systems. The results of the analysis show that RBU satellite systems can be similarly sized to forward band use (FBU) satellite systems. In addition, the orbital separation requirements between RBU and FBU satellite systems are examined. The analysis shows that a carrier to interference ratio of 45 dB can be maintained between RBU and FBU satellites separated by less than 0.5 deg, and that A carrier to interference ratio of 42 dB can be maintained in the antipodal case. Rain scatter propagation analysis shows that RBU and FBU earth stations require separation distances of less than 10 km at a rain rate of 13.5 mm/hr escalating to less than 100 km at a rain rate of 178 mm/hr for earth station antennas in the 3 to 10 m range.

Whyte, W. A., Jr.↗

Interactive data line study and experiment

The paper considers the utility of having remote terminals on a Landsat image processing system and the development of efficient data transfer strategies such as data compression. The approach is to link an image processing terminal (located in a mobile van) to a multiuser host computer via the Communications Technology Satellite and a leased phone line. The host computer will share time between the remote state users and local users. The terminal includes a minicomputer, a color video display, and a communications interface, and the user has access to all of the resources of the host facility via the data link. While at present the terminal acts in the display-only mode, the computing capability of the terminal can be varied from display-only up to a stand-alone image processing system. An analysis of trade-offs between data link and remote terminal capacities is described with attention to the evaluation of the system by state users and the selection of a system architecture suitable to unique needs.

Rasmussen, D. N.↗

Design and Fabrication of the NASA Decoupler Pylon for the F-16 Aircraft, Addendum 2

The decoupler pylons which were originally designed and assembled with bushings in the pivot joints were retrofitted with roller bearings. This retrofit, the supporting analyses and the fixture tests of the modified pylons are reported in this document. The loads and stress analysis was directed toward the redesigned parts which were the pylon links and pins. The loads and stress analysis indicates that the pylons with the bearing installation have reduced capacity with respect to the bushing design. Fixture tests of the redesigned pylons were conducted in the GD/FW facility. Breakout friction tests and vibration tests were conducted. The tests show that the joint friction is approximately one-half the level with bearings as compared with the bushing installation. The vibration test data was used to tune the pylon mathematical simulation and this revised pylon simulation was used to recompute airplane modes of vibration. These computed modes of vibration were used in complete airplane symmetric and antisymmetric flutter and aeroservoelastic analyses.

Clayton, J. D.↗