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Advanced Two-Moment Bulk Microphysics for Global Models. Part II: Global Model Solutions and Aerosol–Cloud Interactions*

A modified microphysics scheme is implemented in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5). The new scheme features prognostic precipitation. The coupling between the microphysics and the rest of the model is modified to make it more flexible. Single-column tests show the new microphysics can simulate a constrained drizzling stratocumulus case. Substepping the cloud condensation (macrophysics) within a time step improves single-column results. Simulations of mixed-phase cases are strongly sensitive to ice nucleation. The new microphysics alters process rates in both single-column and global simulations, even at low (200 km) horizontal resolution. Thus, prognostic precipitation can be important, even in low-resolution simulations where advection of precipitation is not important. Accretion dominates as liquid water path increases in agreement with cloud-resolving model simulations and estimates from observations. The new microphysics with prognostic precipitation increases the ratio of accretion over autoconversion. Additionally, the change in process rates appears to significantly reduce aerosol–cloud interactions and indirect radiative effects of anthropogenic aerosols by up to 33% (depending on substepping) to below 1 W m-2 of cooling between simulations with preindustrial (1850) and present-day (2000) aerosol emissions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Collaborative Research: Continuous Dynamic Grid Adaptation in a Global Atmospheric Model - Application and Refinement

This project had goals of advancing the performance capabilities of the numerical general circulation model EULAG and using it to produce a fully operational atmospheric global climate model (AGCM) that can employ either static or dynamic grid stretching for targeted phenomena. The resulting AGCM combined EULAG's advanced dynamics core with the "physics" of the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model (CAM). Effort discussed below shows how we improved model performance and tested both EULAG and the coupled CAM-EULAG in several ways to demonstrate the grid stretching and ability to simulate very well a wide range of scales, that is, multi-scale capability. We leveraged our effort through interaction with an international EULAG community that has collectively developed new features and applications of EULAG, which we exploited for our own work summarized here. Overall, the work contributed to over 40 peer-reviewed publications and over 70 conference/workshop/seminar presentations, many of them invited. 3a. EULAG Advances EULAG is a non-hydrostatic, parallel computational model for all-scale geophysical flows. EULAG's name derives from its two computational options: EULerian (flux form) or semi-LAGrangian (advective form). The model combines nonoscillatory forward-in-time (NFT) numerical algorithms with a robust elliptic Krylov solver. A signature feature of EULAG is that it is formulated in generalized time-dependent curvilinear coordinates. In particular, this enables grid adaptivity. In total, these features give EULAG novel advantages over many existing dynamical cores. For EULAG itself, numerical advances included refining boundary conditions and filters for optimizing model performance in polar regions. We also added flexibility to the model's underlying formulation, allowing it to work with the pseudo-compressible equation set of Durran in addition to EULAG's standard anelastic formulation. Work in collaboration with others also extended the demonstrated range of validity of soundproof models, showing that they are more broadly applicable than some had previously thought. Substantial testing of EULAG included application and extension of the Jablonowski-Williamson baroclinic wave test - an archetype of planetary weather - and further analysis of multi-scale interactions arising from collapse of temperature fronts in both the baroclinic wave test and simulations of the Held-Suarez idealized climate. These analyses revealed properties of atmospheric gravity waves not seen in previous work and further demonstrated the ability of EULAG to simulate realistic behavior over several orders of magnitude of length scales. Additional collaborative work enhanced capability for modeling atmospheric flows with adaptive moving meshes and demonstrated the ability of EULAG to move into petascale computing. 3b. CAM-EULAG Advances We have developed CAM-EULAG in collaboration with former project postdoc, now University of Cape Town Assistant Professor, Babatunde Abiodun. Initial study documented good model performance in aqua-planet simulations. In particular, we showed that the grid adaptivity (stretching) implemented in CAM-EULAG allows higher resolution in selected regions without causing anomalous behavior such as spurious wave reflection. We then used the stretched-grid version to analyze simulated extreme precipitation events in West Africa, comparing the precipitation and event environment with observed behavior. The model simulates fairly well the spatial scale and the interannual and intraseasonal variability of the extreme events, although its extreme precipitation intensity is weaker than observed. In addition, both observations and the simulations show possible forcing of extreme events by African easterly waves. 3c. Other Contributions Through our collaborations, we have made contributions to a wide range of outcomes. For research focused on terrestrial behavior, these have included (1) upwind schemes for gas dynamics, (2) a nonlinear perspective on the dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, (3) numerical realism of thermal convection, (4) extreme precipitation processes, (5) unstructured meshes, (6) porous-media analogies for simulating flow in urban environments, (7) Monge-Ampere enhancements of semi-Lagrangian methods and (8) further extensions of the generality of EULAG applications to geophysical problems. The generality of EULAG for multi-scale flow was also demonstrated through solar applications. Simulations of solar magnetohydrodynamics showed that EULAG produces the solar cycle fairly well. Although the model's solar cycle is significantly longer than observed, it shows remarkable agreement with observations in features of spatial evolution. These efforts in environments that are extreme from a geophysical perspective have helped to establish the robustness of EULAG as an all-scale code for geophysical applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Continuous Dynamic Grid Adaptation In A Global Atmospheric Model: Application And Refinement (Scientific Final Report)

This project had goals of advancing the performance capabilities of the numerical general circulation model EULAG and using it to produce a fully operational atmospheric global climate model (AGCM) that can employ either static or dynamic grid stretching for targeted phenomena. The resulting AGCM combined EULAG's advanced dynamics core with the 'physics' of the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model (CAM). Effort discussed below shows how we improved model performance and tested both EULAG and the coupled CAM-EULAG in several ways to demonstrate the grid stretching and ability to simulate very well a wide range of scales, that is, multi-scale capability. We leveraged our effort through interaction with an international EULAG community that has collectively developed new features and applications of EULAG, which we exploited for our own work summarized here. Overall, the work contributed to over 40 peer-reviewed publications and over 70 conference/workshop/seminar presentations, many of them invited.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Collaborative Research: Continuous Dynamic Grid Adaptation in a Global Atmospheric Model: Application and Refinement [Scientific Final Report]

This project had goals of advancing the performance capabilities of the numerical general circulation model EULAG and using it to produce a fully operational atmospheric global climate model (AGCM) that can employ either static or dynamic grid stretching for targeted phenomena. The resulting AGCM combined EULAG's advanced dynamics core with the physics of the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model (CAM). Effort discussed below shows how we improved model performance and tested both EULAG and the coupled CAM-EULAG in several ways to demonstrate the grid stretching and ability to simulate very well a wide range of scales, that is, multi-scale capability. We leveraged our effort through interaction with an international EULAG community that has collectively developed new features and applications of EULAG, which we exploited for our own work summarized here. Overall, the work contributed to over 40 peer- reviewed publications and over 70 conference/workshop/seminar presentations, many of them invited.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigation of Aerosol Indirect Effects using a Cumulus Microphysics Parameterization in a Regional Climate Model

A new Zhang and McFarlane (ZM) cumulus scheme includes a two-moment cloud microphysics parameterization for convective clouds. This allows aerosol effects to be investigated more comprehensively by linking aerosols with microphysical processes in both stratiform clouds that are explicitly resolved and convective clouds that are parameterized in climate models. This new scheme is implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is coupled with the physics and aerosol packages from the Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5). A test case of July 2008 during the East Asian summer monsoon is selected to evaluate the performance of the new ZM scheme and to investigate aerosol effects on monsoon precipitation. The precipitation and radiative fluxes simulated by the new ZM scheme show a better agreement with observations compared to simulations with the original ZM scheme that does not include convective cloud microphysics and aerosol convective cloud interactions. Detailed analysis suggests that an increase in detrained cloud water and ice mass by the new ZM scheme is responsible for this improvement. To investigate precipitation response to increased anthropogenic aerosols, a sensitivity experiment is performed that mimics a clean environment by reducing the primary aerosols and anthropogenic emissions to 30% of that used in the control simulation of a polluted environment. The simulated surface precipitation is reduced by 9.8% from clean to polluted environment and the reduction is less significant when microphysics processes are excluded from the cumulus clouds. Ensemble experiments with ten members under each condition (i.e., clean and polluted) indicate similar response of the monsoon precipitation to increasing aerosols.

aerosol indirect effects↗

Acceleration of the Parameterization of Unified Microphysics Across Scales (PUMAS) on the Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) With Directive-Based Methods

Cloud microphysics is one of the most time-consuming components in a climate model. In this study, we port the cloud microphysics parameterization in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), known as Parameterization of Unified Microphysics Across Scales (PUMAS), from CPU to GPU to seek a computational speedup. The directive-based methods (OpenACC and OpenMP target offload) are determined as the best fit specifically for our development practices, which enable a single version of source code to run either on the CPU or GPU, and yield a better portability and maintainability. Their performance is first examined in a PUMAS stand-alone kernel and the directive-based methods can outperform a CPU node as long as there is enough computational burden on the GPU. A consistent behavior is observed when we run PUMAS on the GPU in a practical CAM simulation. A 3.6× speedup of the PUMAS execution time, including data movement between CPU and GPU, is achieved at a coarse horizontal resolution (8 NVIDIA V100 GPUs against 36 Intel Skylake CPU cores). This speedup further increases up to 5.4× at a high resolution (24 NVIDIA V100 GPUs against 108 Intel Skylake CPU cores), which highlights the fact that GPU favors larger problem size. This study demonstrates that using GPU in a CAM simulation can save noticeable computational costs even with a small portion of code being GPU-enabled. Therefore, we are encouraged to port more parameterizations to GPU to take advantage of its computational benefit.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Final Report for UW-Madison Portion of DE-SC0005301, "Collaborative Project: Pacific Decadal Variability and Central Pacific Warming El Niño in a Changing Climate"

This project funded two efforts at understanding the interactions between Central Pacific ENSO events, the mid-latitude atmosphere, and decadal variability in the Pacific. The first was an investigation of conditions that lead to Central Pacific (CP) and East Pacific (EP) ENSO events through the use of linear inverse modeling with defined norms. The second effort was a modeling study that combined output from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmospheric Model (CAM4) with the Battisti (1988) intermediate coupled model. The intent of the second activity was to investigate the relationship between the atmospheric North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM), and ENSO. These two activities are described herein.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Freezing Processes in Southern Ocean Mixed Phase Clouds (Final Technical Report)

Southern Ocean (SO) low-level clouds remain a challenge for Earth system models to represent accurately. This project utilized DOE ARM observations and the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) to improve process-level understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions and cloud microphysics for SO mixed-phase clouds. Specifically, our efforts include two main topics: 1) investigate the SO aerosol, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and ice nucleating particle (INP) population based on observations and determine predictive skill of simulating SO INPs, and 2) assess the ice formation pathways, including ice nucleation and secondary ice production, in SO mixed phase clouds utilizing a combination of observations and modeling tools. Studies focused on SO aerosol and INP resulted four manuscripts. Ice formation pathways in SO mixed phase clouds were investigated, revealing observed evidence of SIP active across all mixed phase temperatures. However, a key finding of this project is that despite significant progress in predicting SO INPs, the role of INP variability in SO cloud phase, precipitation, and radiative properties remain unknown due to challenges in microphysics parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of the Accuracy of the Conventional Ray-Tracing Technique: Implications in Remote Sensing and Radiative Transfer Involving Ice Clouds.

A fundamental problem in remote sensing and radiative transfer simulations involving ice clouds is the ability to compute accurate optical properties for individual ice particles. While relatively simple and intuitively appealing, the conventional geometric-optics method (CGOM) is used frequently for the solution of light scattering by ice crystals. Due to the approximations in the ray-tracing technique, the CGOM accuracy is not well quantified. The result is that the uncertainties are introduced that can impact many applications. Improvements in the Invariant Imbedding T-matrix method (II-TM) and the Improved Geometric-Optics Method (IGOM) provide a mechanism to assess the aforementioned uncertainties. The results computed by the II-TMþIGOM are considered as a benchmark because the IITM solves Maxwell's equations from first principles and is applicable to particle size parameters ranging into the domain at which the IGOM has reasonable accuracy. To assess the uncertainties with the CGOM in remote sensing and radiative transfer simulations, two independent optical property datasets of hexagonal columns are developed for sensitivity studies by using the CGOM and the II-TMþIGOM, respectively. Ice cloud bulk optical properties obtained from the two datasets are compared and subsequently applied to retrieve the optical thickness and effective diameter from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) measurements. Additionally, the bulk optical properties are tested in broadband radiative transfer (RT) simulations using the general circulation model (GCM) version of the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTMG) that is adopted in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM, version 5.1). For MODIS retrievals, the mean bias of uncertainties of applying the CGOM in shortwave bands (0.86 and 2.13 micrometers) can be up to 5% in the optical thickness and as high as 20% in the effective diameter, depending on cloud optical thickness and effective diameter. In the MODIS infrared window bands centered at 8.5, 11, and 12 micrometers biases in the optical thickness and effective diameter are up to 12% and 10%, respectively. The CGOM-based simulation errors in ice cloud radiative forcing calculations are on the order of 10Wm(exp 2).

remote sensing↗

Performance analysis of fully explicit and fully implicit solvers within a spectral element shallow-water atmosphere model

In this study, explicit Runge–Kutta methods and implicit multistep methods utilizing a Newton–Krylov nonlinear solver are evaluated for a range of configurations of the shallow-water dynamical core of the spectral element community atmosphere model to evaluate their computational performance. These configurations are designed to explore the attributes of each method under different but relevant model usage scenarios including varied spectral order within an element, static regional refinement, and scaling to the largest problem sizes. This analysis is performed within the shallow-water dynamical core option of a full climate model code base to enable a wealth of simulations for study, with the aim of informing solver development within the more complete hydrostatic dynamical core used for climate research. The limitations and benefits to using explicit versus implicit methods, with different parameters and settings, are discussed in light of the trade-offs with Message Passing Interface (MPI) communication and memory and their inherent efficiency bottlenecks. Given the performance behavior across the configurations analyzed here, the recommendation for future work using the implicit solvers is conditional based on scale separation and the stiffness of the problem. For the regionally refined configurations, the implicit method has about the same efficiency as the explicit method, without considering efficiency gains from a preconditioner. The potential for improvement using a preconditioner is greatest for higher spectral order configurations, where more work is shifted to the linear solver. Finally, initial simulations with OpenACC directives to utilize a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) when performing function evaluations show improvements locally, and that overall gains are possible with adjustments to data exchanges.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Sources and pathways of the upscale effects on the Southern Hemisphere jet in MPAS-CAM4 variable-resolution simulations

Impacts of regional grid refinement on large-scale circulations (“upscale effects”) were detected in a previous study that used the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere coupled to the physics parameterizations of the Community Atmosphere Model version 4. The strongest upscale effect was identified in the Southern Hemisphere jet during austral winter. This study examines the detailed underlying processes by comparing two simulations at quasi-uniform resolutions of 30 and 120 km to three variable-resolution simulations in which the horizontal grids are regionally refined to 30 km in North America, South America, or Asia from 120 km elsewhere. In all the variable-resolution simulations, precipitation increases in convective areas inside the high-resolution domains, as in the reference quasi-uniform high-resolution simulation. With grid refinement encompassing the tropical Americas, the increased condensational heating expands the local divergent circulations (Hadley cell) meridionally such that their descending branch is shifted poleward, which also pushes the baroclinically unstable regions, momentum flux convergence, and the eddy-driven jet poleward. This teleconnection pathway is not found in the reference high-resolution simulation due to a strong resolution sensitivity of cloud radiative forcing that dominates the aforementioned teleconnection signals. The regional refinement over Asia enhances Rossby wave sources and strengthens the upper level southerly flow, both facilitating the cross-equatorial propagation of stationary waves. Evidence indicates that this teleconnection pathway is also found in the reference high-resolution simulation. Lastly, the result underlines the intricate diagnoses needed to understand the upscale effects in global variable-resolution simulations, with implications for science investigations using the computationally efficient modeling framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Technical descriptions of the experimental dynamical downscaling simulations over North America by the CAM–MPAS variable-resolution model

Abstract. Comprehensive assessment of climate datasets is important for communicating model projections and associated uncertainties to stakeholders. Uncertainties can arise not only from assumptions and biases within the model but also from external factors such as computational constraint and data processing. To understand sources of uncertainties in global variable-resolution (VR) dynamical downscaling, we produced a regional climate dataset using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS; dynamical core version 4.0) coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM; version 5.4), which we refer to as CAM–MPAS hereafter. This document provides technical details of the model configuration, simulations, computational requirements, post-processing, and data archive of the experimental CAM–MPAS downscaling data. The CAM–MPAS model is configured with VR meshes featuring higher resolutions over North America as well as quasi-uniform-resolution meshes across the globe. The dataset includes multiple uniform- (240 and 120 km) and variable-resolution (50–200, 25–100, and 12–46 km) simulations for both the present-day (1990–2010) and future (2080–2100) periods, closely following the protocol of the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment. A deviation from the protocol is the pseudo-warming experiment for the future period, using the ocean boundary conditions produced by adding the sea surface temperature and sea-ice changes from the low-resolution version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to the present-day ocean state from a reanalysis product. Some unique aspects of global VR models are evaluated to provide background knowledge to data users and to explore good practices for modelers who use VR models for regional downscaling. In the coarse-resolution domain, strong resolution sensitivity of the hydrological cycles exists over the tropics but does not appear to affect the midlatitude circulations in the Northern Hemisphere, including the downscaling target of North America. The pseudo-warming experiment leads to similar responses of large-scale circulations to the imposed radiative and boundary forcings in the CAM–MPAS and MPI-ESM-LR models, but their climatological states in the historical period differ over various regions, including North America. Such differences are carried to the future period, suggesting the importance of the base state climatology. Within the refined domain, precipitation statistics improve with higher resolutions, and such statistical inference is verified to be negligibly influenced by horizontal remapping during post-processing. Limited (≈50 % slower) throughput of the current code is found on a recent many-core/wide-vector high-performance computing system, which limits the lengths of the 12–46 km simulations and indirectly affects sampling uncertainty. Our experience shows that global and technical aspects of the VR downscaling framework require further investigations to reduce uncertainties for regional climate projection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Multiscale Methods for Accurate, Efficient, and Scale-Aware Models of the Earth System

The major goal of this project was to contribute improvements to the infrastructure of an Earth System Model in order to support research in the Multiscale Methods for Accurate, Efficient, and Scale-Aware models of the Earth System project. In support of this, the NCAR team accomplished two main tasks: improving input/output performance of the model and improving atmospheric model simulation quality. Improvement of the performance and scalability of data input and diagnostic output within the model required a new infrastructure which can efficiently handle the unstructured grids common in multiscale simulations. This allows for a more computationally efficient model, enabling more years of Earth System simulation. The quality of the model simulations was improved by reducing grid-point noise in the spectral element version of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM-SE). This was achieved by running the physics of the model using grid-cell data on a finite-volume grid.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NCAR Release of CAM‐SE in CESM2.0: A Reformulation of the Spectral Element Dynamical Core in Dry‐Mass Vertical Coordinates With Comprehensive Treatment of Condensates and Energy

Abstract It is the purpose of this paper to provide a comprehensive documentation of the new NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) version of the spectral element (SE) dynamical core as part of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2.0) release. This version differs from previous releases of the SE dynamical core in several ways. Most notably the hybrid sigma vertical coordinate is based on dry air mass, the condensates are dynamically active in the thermodynamic and momentum equations (also referred to as condensate loading), and the continuous equations of motion conserve a more comprehensive total energy that includes condensates. Not related to the vertical coordinate change, the hyperviscosity operators and the vertical remapping algorithms have been modified. The code base has been significantly reduced, sped up, and cleaned up as part of integrating SE as a dynamical core in the CAM (Community Atmosphere Model) repository rather than importing the SE dynamical core from High‐Order Methods Modeling environment as an external code.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Short ensembles: An Efficient Method for Discerning Climate-relevant Sensitivities in Atmospheric General Circulation Models

This paper explores the feasibility of an experimentation strategy for investigating sensitivities in fast components of atmospheric general circulation models. The basic idea is to replace the traditional serial-in-time long-term climate integrations by representative ensembles of shorter simulations. The key advantage of the proposed method lies in its efficiency: since fewer days of simulation are needed, the computational cost is less, and because individual realizations are independent and can be integrated simultaneously, the new dimension of parallelism can dramatically reduce the turnaround time in benchmark tests, sensitivities studies, and model tuning exercises. The strategy is not appropriate for exploring sensitivity of all model features, but it is very effective in many situations. Two examples are presented using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5. The first example demonstrates that the method is capable of characterizing the model cloud and precipitation sensitivity to time step length. A nudging technique is also applied to an additional set of simulations to help understand the contribution of physics-dynamics interaction to the detected time step sensitivity. In the second example, multiple empirical parameters related to cloud microphysics and aerosol lifecycle are perturbed simultaneously in order to explore which parameters have the largest impact on the simulated global mean top-of-atmosphere radiation balance. Results show that in both examples, short ensembles are able to correctly reproduce the main signals of model sensitivities revealed by traditional long-term climate simulations for fast processes in the climate system. The efficiency of the ensemble method makes it particularly useful for the development of high-resolution, costly and complex climate models.

atmospheric general circulation models↗

A new approach to modeling aerosol effects on East Asian climate: Parametric uncertainties associated with emissions, cloud microphysics, and their interactions

In this paper, we adopt a parametric sensitivity analysis framework that integrates the quasi-Monte Carlo parameter sampling approach and a surrogate model to examine aerosol effects on the East Asian Monsoon climate simulated in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5). A total number of 256 CAM5 simulations are conducted to quantify the model responses to the uncertain parameters associated with cloud microphysics parameterizations and aerosol (e.g., sulfate, black carbon (BC), and dust) emission factors and their interactions. Results show that the interaction terms among parameters are important for quantifying the sensitivity of fields of interest, especially precipitation, to the parameters. The relative importance of cloud-microphysics parameters and emission factors (strength) depends on evaluation metrics or the model fields we focused on, and the presence of uncertainty in cloud microphysics imposes an additional challenge in quantifying the impact of aerosols on cloud and climate. Due to their different optical and microphysical properties and spatial distributions, sulfate, BC, and dust aerosols have very different impacts on East Asian Monsoon through aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions. The climatic effects of aerosol do not always have a monotonic response to the change of emission factors. The spatial patterns of both sign and magnitude of aerosol-induced changes in radiative fluxes, cloud, and precipitation could be different, depending on the aerosol types, when parameters are sampled in different ranges of values. We also identify the different cloud microphysical parameters that show the most significant impact on climatic effect induced by sulfate, BC and dust, respectively, in East Asia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving Low‐Cloud Fraction Prediction Through Machine Learning

Abstract In this study, we evaluated the performance of machine learning (ML) models (XGBoost) in predicting low‐cloud fraction (LCF), compared to two generations of the community atmospheric model (CAM5 and CAM6) and ERA5 reanalysis data, each having a different cloud scheme. ML models show a substantial enhancement in predicting LCF regarding root mean squared errors and correlation coefficients. The good performance is consistent across the full spectrums of atmospheric stability and large‐scale vertical velocity. Employing an explainable ML approach, we revealed the importance of including the amount of available moisture in ML models for representing spatiotemporal variations in LCF in the midlatitudes. Also, ML models demonstrated marked improvement in capturing the LCF variations during the stratocumulus‐to‐cumulus transition (SCT). This study suggests ML models' great potential to address the longstanding issues of “too few” low clouds and “too rapid” SCT in global climate models.

Geology↗