Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “COLLECTIVE MODEL”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Development of High Alumina Glass Property Data for Hanford High-Level Waste Glass Models - 16231

Roughly half of the projected Hanford high-level waste batches will have waste loadings limited by relatively high concentration of Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}. Individual glasses have been formulated and tested to demonstrate that it is possible to increase the loading of these high-Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} wastes in glass by as much as 50%. To implement such increases in waste loading in the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant, the impact of composition on the properties of high-Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} waste glasses must be quantified in the form of validated glass property-composition models. To collect the data necessary for glass property-composition models, a multi-phase experimental approach was developed. In the first phase of the study, a set of 46 glass compositions were statistically designed to most efficiently backfill existing data in the composition region for high-Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} (15 to 30 wt%) waste glasses. The glasses were fabricated and key glass properties were tested: - Product Consistency Test (PCT) on quench (Q) and canister centerline cooled (CCC) samples - Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure (TCLP) on Q and CCC samples - Crystallinity as a function of temperature (T) at equilibrium and of CCC samples - Viscosity and electrical conductivity as a function of T The measured properties of these glasses were compared to predictions from previously existing models developed over lower Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} concentration ranges. Areas requiring additional testing and modeling were highlighted. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of the Challenges in Developing Sample-Based Multi-fidelity Estimators for Non-deterministic Models

Multifidelity (MF) uncertainty quantification (UQ) seeks to leverage and fuse information from a collection of models to achieve greater statistical accuracy with respect to a single-fidelity counterpart, while maintaining an efficient use of computational resources. Despite many recent advancements in MF UQ, several challenges remain and these often limit its practical impact in certain application areas. In this manuscript, we focus on the challenges introduced by nondeterministic models to sampling MF UQ estimators. Nondeterministic models produce different responses for the same inputs, which means their outputs are effectively noisy. MF UQ is complicated by this noise since many state-of-the-art approaches rely on statistics, e.g., the correlation among models, to optimally fuse information and allocate computational resources. Here, we demonstrate how the statistics of the quantities of interest, which impact the design, effectiveness, and use of existing MF UQ techniques, change as functions of the noise. With this in hand, we extend the unifying approximate control variate framework to account for nondeterminism, providing for the first time a rigorous means of comparing the effect of nondeterminism on different multifidelity estimators and analyzing their performance with respect to one another. Numerical examples are presented throughout the manuscript to illustrate and discuss the consequences of the presented theoretical results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2012

Response of large area avalanche photodiodes to low energy x rays

For an experiment to study neutron radiative beta-decay, we operated large area avalanche photodiodes (APDs) near liquid nitrogen temperature to detect x rays with energies between 0.2 keV and 20 keV. Whereas there are numerous reports of x ray spectrometry using APDs at energies above 1 keV, operation near liquid nitrogen temperature allowed us to reach a nominal threshold of 0.1 keV. However, due to the short penetration depth of x rays below 1 keV, the pulse height spectrum of the APD become complex. We studied the response using monochromatic x ray beams and employed phenomenological fits of the pulse height spectrum to model the measurement of a continuum spectrum from a synchrotron. In addition, the measured pulse height spectrum was modelled using a profile for the variation in efficiency of collection of photoelectrons with depth into the APD. The best results are obtained with the collection efficiency model.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of benchmarking choices on inferred model skill of the Arctic–Boreal terrestrial carbon cycle

Abstract Land surface models require continuous validation against observations to improve and reduce simulation uncertainty. However, inferred model performance can be heavily influenced by subjective choices made in the selection and application of observational data products. A key area often misrepresented by models is the Arctic–Boreal region, which is a potential tipping point region in Earth’s climate system due to large permafrost carbon stocks that are vulnerable to release with climate warming. We use the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) framework to evaluate how the model skill of TRENDY-v9 models varies based on the choice of observational-based benchmark and how benchmarks are applied in model evaluation. This analysis uses global datasets integrated into ILAMB and new, regionally-specific observational products from the Arctic–Boreal Vulnerability Experiment. Our results cover the overall time period of 1979–2019 and show that model scores can vary substantially depending on the data product applied, with higher model scores indicating better model performance against observations. The lowest model scores occur when benchmarked against regional, compared to global, datasets. We also evaluate observed and modeled functional relationships between ecosystem respiration and air temperature and between gross primary production and precipitation. Here, we find that the magnitude and shape of the responses are strongly impacted by the choice of observational dataset and the approach used to construct the functional relationship benchmark. These results suggest that model evaluation studies could conclude a false sense of model skill if only using a single benchmark data product or if not applying regional data products when performing a regional model analysis. Collectively, our findings highlight the influence of benchmarking choices on model evaluation and point to the need for benchmarking guidelines when assessing model skill.

Poe, Jeralyn (ORCID:0000000318495278)↗
NASA NTRS2020

Algorithm Performance Dataset from NASA Open-Source Software

NASA Langley Research Center has recently developed and released the open-source software Multi Model Monte Carlo with Python (MXMCPy- LAR-19756-1) as a general capability for computing the statistics of outputs from an expensive, high-fidelity model by leveraging faster, low-fidelity models for speedup. Given a fixed computational budget and a collection of models with varying cost/accuracy, multi model Monte Carlo (MC) seeks a sample allocation strategy across the models that results in an estimator with optimal variance reduction. MXMCPy is a versatile tool that enables convenient access to many existing multi-model MC approaches (over a dozen algorithms available) within one modular and extensible package [1]. With MXMCPy, users can easily compare existing methods to determine the best choice for their particular problem,while developers have a basis for implementing and sharing new variance reduction approaches. However,there is currently very little understanding about which algorithm will perform best for a given problem (defined by the correlation between and relative cost of the available models) without a brute force search.

Geoffrey F Bomarito↗
DOE OSTI2019

LIVVkit 2.1: automated and extensible ice sheet model validation

A collection of scientific analyses, metrics, and visualizations for robustvalidation of ice sheet models is presented using the Land Ice Verificationand Validation toolkit (LIVVkit), version 2.1, and the LIVVkit Extensionsrepository (LEX), version 0.1. This software collection targets stand-aloneice sheet or coupled Earth system models, and handles datasets and analysesthat require high-performance computing and storage. LIVVkit aims to enableefficient and fully reproducible workflows for postprocessing, analysis, andvisualization of observational and model-derived datasets in a shareableformat, whereby all data, methodologies, and output are distributed to usersfor evaluation. Extending from the initial LIVVkit software framework, wedemonstrate Greenland ice sheet simulation validation metrics using thecoupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) as well as an idealizedstand-alone high-resolution Community Ice Sheet Model, version 2 (CISM2),coupled to the Albany/FELIX velocity solver (CISM-Albany or CISM-A). As oneexample of the capability, LIVVkit analyzes the degree to which modelscapture the surface mass balance (SMB) and identifies potential sources ofbias, using recently available in situ and remotely sensed data ascomparison. Related fields within atmosphere and land surface models, e.g.,surface temperature, radiation, and cloud cover, are also diagnosed. Appliedto the CESM1.0, LIVVkit identifies a positive SMB bias that is focusedlargely around Greenland's southwest region that is due to insufficientablation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Where, when, and why: Occurrence of fast-pairwise collective neutrino oscillation in three-dimensional core-collapse supernova models

Fast-pairwise collective neutrino oscillation represents a key uncertainty in the theory of core-collapse supernova (CCSN). Despite the potentially significant impact on CCSN dynamics, it is usually neglected in numerical models of CCSN because of the formidable technical difficulties of self-consistently incorporating this physics. In this paper, we investigate the prospects for the occurrence of fast flavor conversion by diagnosing electron neutrino lepton number (ELN) crossing in more than a dozen state-of-the-art three-dimensional CCSN models. ELN crossings provide a necessary condition for triggering flavor conversion. Although only zeroth and first angular moments are available from the simulations, our new method enables us to look into the angular distributions of neutrinos in momentum space and provide accurate insight into ELN crossings. Our analysis suggests that fast flavor conversion generally occurs in the postshock region of CCSNe, and that explosive models provide more favorable conditions for the flavor conversion than failed CCSNe. Here we also find that there are both common and progenitor-dependent characteristics. Classifying ELN crossings into two types, we analyze the generation mechanism of each case by scrutinizing the neutrino radiation field and matter interactions. We find key ingredients of CCSN dynamics driving the ELN crossings: proto-neutron star convection, asymmetric neutrino emission, neutrino absorptions, and scatterings. This study suggests that we need to accommodate fast flavor conversions in realistic CCSN models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Canonical Response in Rainfall Characteristics to Global Warming: Projections by IPCC CMIP5 Models

Changes in rainfall characteristics induced by global warming are examined based on probability distribution function (PDF) analysis, from outputs of 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), CMIP (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under various scenarios of increased CO2 emissions. Results show that collectively CMIP5 models project a robust and consistent global and regional rainfall response to CO2 warming. Globally, the models show a 1-3% increase in rainfall per degree rise in temperature, with a canonical response featuring large increase (100-250 %) in frequency of occurrence of very heavy rain, a reduction (5-10%) of moderate rain, and an increase (10-15%) of light rain events. Regionally, even though details vary among models, a majority of the models (>10 out of 14) project a consistent large scale response with more heavy rain events in climatologically wet regions, most pronounced in the Pacific ITCZ and the Asian monsoon. Moderate rain events are found to decrease over extensive regions of the subtropical and extratropical oceans, but increases over the extratropical land regions, and the Southern Oceans. The spatial distribution of light rain resembles that of moderate rain, but mostly with opposite polarity. The majority of the models also show increase in the number of dry events (absence or only trace amount of rain) over subtropical and tropical land regions in both hemispheres. These results suggest that rainfall characteristics are changing and that increased extreme rainfall events and droughts occurrences are connected, as a consequent of a global adjustment of the large scale circulation to global warming.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA 5.2%-Scale High Lift Common Research Model (CRM-HL) Test in the National Transonic Facility (NTF)

Problem: Predicting CL,max and assessing transition, turbulence models, and Reynolds number effect predictions in CFD requires wind tunnel data for comparison. Objective: Expand the CFD validation database by running multiple models designed using the same reference geometry in various wind tunnels around the world. The wind tunnel data and model geometry will be open source to allow for CFD validation use. Approach: Run the NASA 5.2%-scale High Lift Common Research Model (CRM-HL) semi-span model at the National Transonic Facility (NTF). Test the model at chord Reynolds numbers (Rec) between 1.6 million and 30 million and at varying Q/Es to assess Reynolds number effects and aeroelasticity affects on the model, while collecting force and moment, pressure and wing deformation data. Test the model with ice shapes installed on the leading edges. Results: Ran eight model configurations, including four landing, two landing with ice shapes installed, and two takeoff configurations. Ran in air (120°F) and nitrogen operations (-50°F, -180°F and -250°F) at 7 different chord Reynolds numbers. The data compare well with previous tests of the same model at DLR (The Germany Aerospace Center) and the 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel (14x22). Significance: Provided valuable high Reynolds number data on a high lift configuration to the worldwide research community. Provide icing data at flight Reynolds number to the research community.

CRM-HL↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lattice collective modes from a continuum model of magic-angle twisted bilayer graphene

Here, we show that the insulating states of magic-angle twisted bilayer graphene support a series of collective modes corresponding to local particle-hole excitations on triangular lattice sites. Our theory is based on a continuum model of the magic angle flat bands. When the system is insulating at moiré band filling ν = -3, our calculations show that the ground state supports seven low-energy modes that lie well below the charge gap throughout the moiré Brillouin zone, one of which couples strongly to THz photons. The low-energy collective modes are faithfully described by a model with a local SU(8) degree of freedom in each moiré unit cell that we identify as the direct product of spin, valley, and an orbital pseudospin. Apart from spin and valley-wave modes, the collective mode spectrum includes a low-energy intraflavor exciton mode associated with transitions between flat valence and conduction band orbitals.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Characterization of Collection Efficiency of the Common Research Model Midspan Wing Section in the IRT

This paper presents a preliminary study for the characterization of collection efficiency from icing tests conducted in the Icing Research Tunnel at NASA Glenn Research Center. A test method previously developed for measuring the attachment line maximum collection efficiency of a swept NACA 0012 airfoil model at zero angle of attack was applied to the leading-edge region of a 65%-scale version of the Common Research Model midspan wing section. A correlation for the stagnation line maximum collection efficiency as a function of the modified inertia parameter was obtained with LEWICE3D simulations utilizing a discrete number of drop diameters. It was then compared with the collection efficiency measurement data obtained in the IRT. For the experimental collection efficiency, two ice shape digitization procedures were utilized to extract 2-D chord-wise ice shape profiles, i.e., the Maximum Combined Cross Section or MCCS, and the Minimum Combined Cross Section or MinCCS, at selected span-wise locations from the 3-D scanned ice shapes. The preliminary result showed that the rime ice thickness method can be used to characterize the collection efficiency distribution, for conditions free of ice erosion, in the main ice shape region. However, a high-order statistical processing of the ice scan is needed for estimating the mean ice thickness in areas where feathers are prevalent. From the limited comparison of the experimental and LEWICE3D collection efficiency data in the CRM65 MS model leading edge area, it was shown that the attachment line maximum collection efficiency is reasonably estimated by the best curve-fit correlation in the range of modified inertia parameter tested. A tighter alignment control of the iced and cold clean model scans as well as the model angle of attack are needed to improve the comparison. Further evaluation of this correlation is recommended to assess its applicability for Common Research Model type swept wing icing scaling analysis.

Icing Scaling↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Characterization of Collection Efficiency of the Common Research Model Midspan Wing Section in the IRT

This paper presents a preliminary study for the characterization of collection efficiency from icing tests conducted in the Icing Research Tunnel at NASA Glenn Research Center. A test method previously developed for measuring the attachment line maximum collection efficiency of a swept NACA 0012 airfoil model at zero angle of attack was applied to the leading-edge region of a 65%-scale version of the Common Research Model midspan wing section. A correlation for the stagnation line maximum collection efficiency as a function of the modified inertia parameter was obtained with LEWICE3D simulations utilizing a discrete number of drop diameters. It was then compared with the collection efficiency measurement data obtained in the IRT. For the experimental collection efficiency, two ice shape digitization procedures were utilized to extract 2-D chord-wise ice shape profiles, i.e., the Maximum Combined Cross Section or MCCS, and the Minimum Combined Cross Section or Min CCS, at selected span-wise locations from the 3-D scanned ice shapes. The preliminary result showed that the rime ice thickness method can be used to characterize the collection efficiency distribution, for conditions free of ice erosion, in the main ice shape region. However, a high-order statistical processing of the ice scan is needed for estimating the mean ice thickness in areas where feathers are prevalent. From the limited comparison of the experimental and LEWICE3D collection efficiency data in the CRM65 MS model leading edge area, it was shown that the attachment line maximum collection efficiency is reasonably estimated by the best curve-fit correlation in the range of modified inertia parameter tested. A tighter alignment control of the iced and cold clean model scans is needed to improve the comparison. Further evaluation of this correlation is recommended to assess its applicability for Common Research Model type swept wing icing scaling analysis.

Ice Scailing↗
NASA NTRS2012

Adaptive Sampling of Time Series During Remote Exploration

This work deals with the challenge of online adaptive data collection in a time series. A remote sensor or explorer agent adapts its rate of data collection in order to track anomalous events while obeying constraints on time and power. This problem is challenging because the agent has limited visibility (all its datapoints lie in the past) and limited control (it can only decide when to collect its next datapoint). This problem is treated from an information-theoretic perspective, fitting a probabilistic model to collected data and optimizing the future sampling strategy to maximize information gain. The performance characteristics of stationary and nonstationary Gaussian process models are compared. Self-throttling sensors could benefit environmental sensor networks and monitoring as well as robotic exploration. Explorer agents can improve performance by adjusting their data collection rate, preserving scarce power or bandwidth resources during uninteresting times while fully covering anomalous events of interest. For example, a remote earthquake sensor could conserve power by limiting its measurements during normal conditions and increasing its cadence during rare earthquake events. A similar capability could improve sensor platforms traversing a fixed trajectory, such as an exploration rover transect or a deep space flyby. These agents can adapt observation times to improve sample coverage during moments of rapid change. An adaptive sampling approach couples sensor autonomy, instrument interpretation, and sampling. The challenge is addressed as an active learning problem, which already has extensive theoretical treatment in the statistics and machine learning literature. A statistical Gaussian process (GP) model is employed to guide sample decisions that maximize information gain. Nonsta tion - ary (e.g., time-varying) covariance relationships permit the system to represent and track local anomalies, in contrast with current GP approaches. Most common GP models are stationary, e.g., the covariance relationships are time-invariant. In such cases, information gain is independent of previously collected data, and the optimal solution can always be computed in advance. Information-optimal sampling of a stationary GP time series thus reduces to even spacing, and such models are not appropriate for tracking localized anomalies. Additionally, GP model inference can be computationally expensive.

Thompson, David R.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Global and regional modeling of clouds and aerosols in the marine boundary layer during VOCALS: the VOCA intercomparison

A diverse collection of models are used to simulate the marine boundary layer in the southeast Pacific region during the period of the October–November 2008 VOCALS REx (VAMOS Ocean Cloud Atmosphere Land Study Regional Experiment) field campaign. Regional models simulate the period continuously in boundary-forced free-running mode, while global forecast models and GCMs (general circulation models) are run in forecast mode. The models are compared to extensive observations along a line at 20° S extending westward from the South American coast. Most of the models simulate cloud and aerosol characteristics and gradients across the region that are recognizably similar to observations, despite the complex interaction of processes involved in the problem, many of which are parameterized or poorly resolved. Some models simulate the regional low cloud cover well, though many models underestimate MBL (marine boundary layer) depth near the coast. Most models qualitatively simulate the observed offshore gradients of SO 2 , sulfate aerosol, CCN (cloud condensation nuclei) concentration in the MBL as well as differences in concentration between the MBL and the free troposphere. Most models also qualitatively capture the decrease in cloud droplet number away from the coast. However, there are large quantitative intermodel differences in both means and gradients of these quantities. Many models are able to represent episodic offshore increases in cloud droplet number and aerosol concentrations associated with periods of offshore flow. Most models underestimate CCN (at 0.1% supersaturation) in the MBL and free troposphere. The GCMs also have difficulty simulating coastal gradients in CCN and cloud droplet number concentration near the coast. The overall performance of the models demonstrates their potential utility in simulating aerosol–cloud interactions in the MBL, though quantitative estimation of aerosol–cloud interactions and aerosol indirect effects of MBL clouds with these models remains uncertain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Parallel Simulation of Beam Dynamics in Particle Accelerators [Slides]

Particle accelerators are among the most versatile and important tools of scientific discovery. The Nation's accelerators are responsible for a wealth of advances in materials science, chemistry, the biosciences, particle physics, and nuclear physics. They also have important applications to national security, the environment, energy, medicine, and on the quality of people's lives. LANL has a long history of making pioneering contributions to Accelerator Science including key contributions to the field of Computational Accelerator Physics. These include the development of early beam dynamics codes with space charge (such as PARMILA and PARMELA), the development of rf cavity codes and magnet codes (including Poisson and Superfish), and the development and distribution of codes to the accelerator community through the Los Alamos Accelerator Code Group. LANL researchers also helped pioneer the development of massively parallel space-charge codes. In project t22_accelsim we have moved beyond electrostatic models of collective effects (i.e., solving the Poisson equation in the bunch frame) to fully electromagnetic models based on the Lienard-Wiechert formalism. This approach enables the large-scale simulation of radiation production and collective effects in high brightness electron beams. This is highly relevant to LANL given its future goal of developing an X-ray Free Electron Laser (XFEL). It also directly impacts a LANL LDRD project to develop an undulator-based non-invasive beam profile monitor for beams created in laser-plasma accelerator systems.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spectroscopic Online Monitoring: Using a Multi-Track Visible Spectrometer to Facilitate a Mass Balance Study in a Simulated TALSPEAK Process

Nuclear energy is a promising low-carbon energy candidate to meet the increased demand for green energy, where the integration of fuel recycling can have significant benefits for material usage and waste reduction. Utilizing in situ monitoring tools can provide ample opportunities to better control and safeguard nuclear material recycle processes while also offering knowledge and insight into real-time solution properties. The simultaneous measurement of analytical targets in multiple process locations can enable real-time mass balance and material accountancy calculations. This is demonstrated here with a mass balance study of Nd 3+ on countercurrent aqueous/organic metal extraction within a single centrifugal contactor. The Nd 3+ concentration was simultaneously monitored at the inlets and outlets of both aqueous and organic phases using a visible absorbance detector that allowed for the simultaneous measurement of up to six locations. The Nd 3+ concentration was calculated by using chemical data science algorithms, where model training sets were collected on a single track of the detector. The discussion includes addressing the challenges of using a model collected on a single track and applying it as a model across the other tracks on the detector. Each track of the detector corresponds to one measurement location on the contactor. The difference in the integrated moles of Nd 3+ between the inlet and outlet at the end of the experiment was near zero, indicating that the mass balance of this experiment was maintained. Overall, the online spectroscopic monitoring was able to follow changing solution conditions and accurately measure the concentration of Nd 3+ in different locations within the contactor system.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Daily operational impacts on battery degradation in heavy-duty electric drayage trucks

Battery aging is a critical factor influencing the performance, longevity, and cost of ownership of battery electric trucks (BETs). This paper presents a comprehensive evaluation of battery aging for two Li-ion battery chemistries, Nickel-Manganese-Cobalt (NMC) and Lithium-Iron-Phosphate (LFP), accounting for both cycling and calendar aging. In contrast to traditional methods that rely on simplified linear degradation models based on manufacturer-provided data, this study employs semi-empirical aging models calibrated to experimentally collected data. The models are integrated into a detailed vehicle simulation environment, enabling a comprehensive assessment of battery degradation under realistic operating conditions. A case study focusing on heavy-duty electric drayage truck operations in the Port of Savannah, GA, is presented to illustrate the impact on battery pack lifespan of: seasonal variations, daily operational activities, charging strategies, and battery storage conditions. The results illuminate the significance of the battery pack’s state of charge during stationary periods, such as overnight storage or weekend parking, on battery degradation and its potential implications for long-term vehicle viability. Additionally, the study explores how different operational and environmental factors affect battery degradation, offering critical insights into best battery charging and storage practices. Our results demonstrate that LFP outperforms NMC in terms of years of useful life; however, by utilizing charging strategies that minimize the amount of time the battery spends resting at high levels of state-of-charge, the lifespan of the battery pack that uses NMC can nonetheless be increased by more than a factor of two.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Facilitating the Use of Epidemiological Models for Infectious Disease Surveillance

1. To develop a comprehensive model characterization framework to describe epidemiological models in an operational context. 2. To apply the framework to characterize “operational” models for specific infectious diseases and provide a web-based directory, the biosurveillance analytics resource directory (BARD) to the global infectious disease surveillance community. Epidemiological modeling for infectious disease is useful for disease management and routine implementation needs to be facilitated through better description of models in an operational context. A standardized model characterization process that allows selection or making manual comparisons of available models and their results is currently lacking. Los Alamos National Laboratory(LANL) has developed a comprehensive framework that can be used to characterize an infectious disease model in an operational context. We offer this framework and an associated database to stakeholders of the infectious disease modeling field as a tool for standardizing model description and facilitating the use of epidemiological models. Such a framework could help the understanding of diverse models by various stakeholders with different preconceptions, backgrounds, expertise ,and needs, and can foster greater use of epidemiological models as tools in infectious disease surveillance. We define, “operational” as the application of an epidemiological model to a real-world event for decision support and can be used by experts and non-experts alike. The term “model” covers three major types, risk mapping, disease dynamics and anomaly detection. To develop a framework for characterizing epidemiological models we collected information via a three-step process: a literature search of model characteristics, a review of current operational infectious disease epidemiological models, and subject matter expert (SME)panel consultation. We limited selection of operational models to five infectious diseases: influenza, malaria, dengue, cholera and foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). These diseases capture a variety of transmission modes, represent high or potentially high epidemic or endemic burden, and are well represented in the literature. We also developed working criteria for what attributes can be used to comprehensively describe an operational model including a model’s documentation, accessibility, and sustainability. To apply the model characterization framework, we built the BARD, which is publicly available (http://brd.bsvgateway.org).A document was also developed to describe the usability requirements for the BARD; potential users (and non-users) and use cases are formally described to explain the scope of use. 1. Framework for model characterization. The framework is divided into six major components (Figure 1):Model Purpose, Model Objective, Model Scope, Biosurveillance(BSV) goals, Conceptual Model and Model Utility; each of which has several sub-categories for characterizing each aspect of a model.2. Application to model characterization Models for five infectious diseases—cholera, malaria, influenza, FMD and dengue were characterized using the framework and are included in the BARD database. Our framework characterized disparate models in a streamlined fashion. Model information could be binned into the same categories, allowing easy manual comparison and understanding of the models.3. Development of the BARD. Our model characterization framework was implemented into an actionable tool which provides specific information about a model that has been systematically categorized. It allows manual category-to-category comparison of multiple models for a single disease and while the tool does not rank models it provides model information in a format that allows a user to make a ranking or an assessment of the utility of the model. With the model characterization framework we hope to encourage model developers to start describing the many features of their models using a common format. We illustrate the application of the framework through the development of the BARD which is a scientific and non-biased tool for selecting an appropriate epidemiological model for infectious disease surveillance. Epidemiological models are not necessarily being developed with decision makers in mind. This gap between model developers and decision makers needs to be narrowed before modeling becomes routinely implemented in decision making. The characterization framework and the tool developed (BARD) area first step towards addressing this gap.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗