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At least 199 records · Page 11

Ethical considerations in infectious disease modelling for public health policy: the case of school closures

Mathematical models of infectious diseases are frequently used as a tool to support public health policy and decisions around the implementation of interventions such as school closures. However, most publications on policy-relevant modelling lack an ethical framework and do not explicitly consider the ethical implications of the work. This creates a risk that the unintended consequences of interventions are overlooked or that models are used to justify decisions that are inconsistent with public health ethics. In this article, we focus on the case study of school closures as a commonly modelled intervention against pandemic influenza, COVID-19 and other infectious disease threats. We briefly review some of the key concepts in public health ethics and describe approaches to modelling the effects of school closures. We then identify a series of ethical considerations involved in modelling school closures. These include accounting for population heterogeneity and inequalities; including a diversity of viewpoints and expertise in model design; considering the distribution of benefits and harms; and model transparency and contextualization. Furthermore, we conclude with some recommendations to ensure that policy-relevant modelling is consistent with some key ethics values.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Observation of a periodic array of flux-closure quadrants in strained ferroelectric PbTiO 3 films

Nanoscale ferroelectrics are expected to exhibit various exotic domain configurations, such as the full flux-closure pattern that is well known in ferromagnetic materials. Here we observe not only the atomic morphology of the flux-closure quadrant but also a periodic array of flux closures in ferroelectric PbTiO 3 films, mediated by tensile strain on a GdScO 3 substrate. Using aberration-corrected scanning transmission electron microscopy, we directly visualize an alternating array of clockwise and counterclockwise flux closures, whose periodicity depends on the PbTiO 3 film thickness. In the vicinity of the core, the strain is sufficient to rupture the lattice, with strain gradients up to 10 9 per meter. We found engineering strain at the nanoscale may facilitate the development of nanoscale ferroelectric devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

An Improved Double-Gaussian Closure for the Subgrid Vertical Velocity Probability Distribution Function

Abstract The vertical velocity probability distribution function (PDF) is analyzed throughout the depth of the lower atmosphere, including the subcloud and cloud layers, in four large-eddy simulation (LES) cases of shallow cumulus and stratocumulus. Double-Gaussian PDF closures are examined to test their ability to represent a wide range of turbulence statistics, from stratocumulus cloud layers characterized by Gaussian turbulence to shallow cumulus cloud layers displaying strongly non-Gaussian turbulence statistics. While the majority of the model closures are found to perform well in the former case, the latter presents a considerable challenge. A new model closure is suggested that accounts for high skewness and kurtosis seen in shallow cumulus cloud layers. The well-established parabolic relationship between skewness and kurtosis is examined, with results in agreement with previous studies for the subcloud layer. In cumulus cloud layers, however, a modified relationship is necessary to improve performance. The new closure significantly improves the estimation of the vertical velocity PDF for shallow cumulus cloud layers, in addition to performing well for stratocumulus. In particular, the long updraft tail representing the bulk of cloudy points is much better represented and higher-order moments diagnosed from the PDF are also greatly improved. However, some deficiencies remain owing to fundamental limitations of representing highly non-Gaussian turbulence statistics with a double-Gaussian PDF.

Fitch, A. C.↗

Post-Closure Inspection and Monitoring Report for Corrective Action Unit 417: Central Nevada Test Area Surface, Hot Creek Valley, Nevada

This report presents results of data collected during the annual post-closure site inspections conducted at the Central Nevada Test Area surface Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 417 in May 2011 and July 2012. The annual post-closure site inspections included inspections of the UC-1, UC-3, and UC-4 sites in accordance with the Post-Closure Monitoring Plan provided in the CAU 417 Closure Report (NNSA/NV 2001). The annual inspections conducted at the UC-1 Central Mud Pit (CMP) indicated that the site and soil cover were in good condition. No new fractures or extension of existing fractures were observed and no issues with the fence or gate were identified. The vegetation on the cover continues to look healthy, but the biennial vegetation survey conducted during the 2012 inspection indicated that the total foliar cover was slightly higher in 2009 than in 2012. This may be indicative of a decrease in precipitation observed during the 2-year monitoring period. The precipitation totaled 9.9 inches from July 1, 2010, through June 30, 2011, and 5 inches from July 1, 2011, through June 30, 2012. This decrease in precipitation is also evident in the soil moisture data obtained from the time domain reflectometry sensors. Soil moisture content data show that the UC-1 cover is performing as designed, and evapotranspiration is effectively removing water from the cover.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Corrective Action Management Unit Report of Post-Closure Care Activities Calendar Year 2017.

The Corrective Action Management Unit (CAMU) at Sandia National Laboratories, New Mexico (SNL/NM) consists of a containment cell and ancillary systems that underwent regulatory closure in 2003 in accordance with the Closure Plan in Appendix D of the Class 3 Permit Modification (SNL/NM September 1997). The containment cell was closed with wastes in place. On January 27, 2015, the New Mexico Environment Department (NMED) issued the Hazardous Waste Facility Operating Permit (Permit) for Sandia National Laboratories (NMED January 2015). The Permit became effective February 26, 2015. The CAMU is undergoing post-closure care in accordance with the Permit, as revised and updated. This CAMU Report of Post-Closure Care Activities documents all activities and results for Calendar Year (CY) 2017 as required by the Permit. The CAMU containment cell consists of engineered barriers including a cover system, a bottom liner with a leachate collection and removal system (LCRS), and a vadose zone monitoring system (VZMS). The VZMS provides information on soil conditions under the cell for early leak detection. The VZMS consists of three monitoring subsystems, which include the primary subliner (PSL), a vertical sensor array (VSA), and the Chemical Waste Landfill (CWL) sanitary sewer (CSS) line. The PSL, VSA, and CSS monitoring subsystems are monitored quarterly for soil moisture concentration, the VSA is monitored quarterly for soil temperature, and the VSA and CSS monitoring subsystems are monitored annually for volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations in the soil vapor at various depths. Baseline data for the soil moisture, soil temperature, and soil vapor were established between October 2003 and September 2004.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Chemical Waste Landfill Annual Post-Closure Report Calendar Year 2017

The Chemical Waste Landfill (CWL) at SNL/New Mexico (SNL/NM) is a remediated hazardous waste landfill that underwent closure. The CWL Post-Closure Care Permit (PCCP), which became effective June 2, 2011 and as modified, defines all post-closure requirements. This sixth CWL Annual Post-Closure Care Report documents all activities and results as required by the PCCP Attachment 1, Section 1.12.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Closure Report for Corrective Action Unit 424: Area 3 Landfill Complex, Tonopah Test Range, Nevada, Revision 0. with ROTC 1

This Closure Report provides the documentation for closure of the Area 3 Landfill Complex Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 424. The site is located on the Tonopah Test Range, approximately 225 kilometers (140 miles) northwest of Las Vegas, Nevada. The purpose of this CR is to: Document the closure activities and provide the information collected, as recommended in the CADD. (DOE, 1998a) and proposed in the CAP (DOE~ 1998b ); Provide a Post-Closure Inspection Plan; Obtain a Notice of Completion from the NDEP; Recommend the movement of CAU 424 from Appendix III to Appendix IV of the FFACO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Corrective Action Management Unit Report of Post-Closure Care Activities Calendar Year 2019

The Corrective Action Management Unit (CAMU) at Sandia National Laboratories, New Mexico (SNL/NM) consists of a containment cell and ancillary systems that underwent closure in 2003 in accordance with the Closure Plan in Appendix D of the Class 3 Permit Modification (SNL/NM September 1997). The containment cell was closed with wastes in place. On January 27, 2015, the New Mexico Environment Department (NMED) issued the Hazardous Waste Facility Operating Permit (Permit) for Sandia National Laboratories (NMED January 2015) to the U.S. Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE/NNSA) and its Management and Operating (M&O) contractor. The current M&O contractor is National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC (NTESS). The Permit became effective February 26, 2015. The CAMU is undergoing post-closure care in accordance with the Permit, as revised and updated. This CAMU Report of Post-Closure Care Activities documents all activities and results for calendar year (CY) 2019, as required by the Permit.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Corrective Action Management Unit Report of Post-Closure Care Activities (CY 2018)

The Corrective Action Management Unit (CAMU) at Sandia National Laboratories, New Mexico (SNL/NM) consists of a containment cell and ancillary systems that underwent regulatory closure in 2003 in accordance with the Closure Plan in Appendix D of the Class 3 Permit Modification (SNL/NM September 1997). The containment cell was closed with wastes in place. On January 26, 2015, the New Mexico Environment Department (NMED) issued the Hazardous Waste Facility Operating Permit (Permit) for Sandia National Laboratories (NMED January 2015). The Permit became effective February 26, 2015. The CAMU is undergoing post-closure care in accordance with the Permit, as revised and updated. This CAMU Report of Post-Closure Care Activities documents all activities and results for calendar year (CY) 2018 as required by the Permit.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Corrective Action Management Unit Report of Post-Closure Care Activities. Calendar Year 2020

he Corrective Action Management Unit (CAMU) at Sandia National Laboratories, New Mexico (SNL/NM) consists of a containment cell and ancillary systems that underwent closure in 2003 in accordance with the Closure Plan in Appendix D of the Class 3 Permit Modification (SNL/NM September 1997). The containment cell was closed with wastes in place. On January 27, 2015, the New Mexico Environment Department issued the Hazardous Waste Facility Operating Permit (Permit) for Sandia National Laboratories (NMED January 2015) to the U.S. Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE/NNSA) and its Management and Operating (M&O) contractor. The current M&O contractor is National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC (NTESS). The Permit became effective February 26, 2015. The CAMU is undergoing post-closure care in accordance with the Permit, as revised and updated. This CAMU Report of Post-Closure Care Activities documents all activities and results for calendar year (CY) 2020, as required by the Permit.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Improvements to CTF Closure Models for Modelling of Two-Phase Flow

This report documents the efforts to improve the CTF prediction of void fraction and two-phase pressure drop by improving two-phase closure models. Previous validation activities have revealed that CTF tends to overpredict void fraction and two-phase pressure drop. In response to this, two approaches were taken to improve CTF’s predictive capabilities. Based on findings that the interfacial drag and subcooled boiling models significantly impact void prediction, alternative closure models for these physical effects were found and implemented into the code. An extensive assessment was performed by using the existing and newly added two-phase experimental data, which showed that void prediction, wall temperature, and two-phase pressure-drop results are improved by using the newly implemented models. A second approach for improving CTF modeling accuracy involved the use of a Bayesian calibration process that uses CTF validation data to optimize selected modeling coefficients and closure model multipliers to achieve a more accurate prediction of experimental results. A similar assessment was performed with calibrated models that improved the void and pressure-drop prediction for test cases that were both included and not included in the calibration dataset. Results of this study will be used to change the models used in CTF to achieve more accurate BWR analyses moving forward. This study also identified opportunities for improving additional closure models and other opportunities to use calibration techniques to improve CTF.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Post-Closure Inspection and Monitoring Report for Surface Corrective Action Unit 417 at the Central Nevada Test Area, Nevada, Site

This report presents results of data collected during the biennial post-closure site inspections conducted in July 2014 at the surface Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 417 at the Central Nevada Test Area, Nevada, site. The every-other-year post-closure site inspections included inspections of the UC-1, UC-3, and UC-4 sites in accordance with the Post-Closure Monitoring Plan provided in the CAU 417 Closure Report (NNSA/NV 2001). The biennial inspection conducted at the UC-1 Central Mud Pit (CMP) indicated that the site and soil cover were in good condition. No new fractures or extensions of existing fractures were observed and no issues with the fence or gate were identified. The vegetation on the cover continues to be healthy. Precipitation measured from July 1, 2012, through June 30, 2013, totaled 179.6 millimeters (mm) or 7.1 inches. Precipitation measured from July 1, 2013, through June 3, 2014, totaled 157.0 mm or 6.2 inches. Soil moisture content data show that the UC-1 CMP cover is performing as designed, and vapotranspiration is effectively removing water from the cover.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

COVID-19–Related School Closures, United States, July 27, 2020–June 30, 2022

As part of a multiyear project that monitored illness-related school closures, we conducted systematic daily online searches during July 27, 2020–June 30, 2022, to identify public announcements of COVID-19–related school closures (COVID-SCs) in the United States lasting ≥1 day. We explored the temporospatial patterns of COVID-SCs and analyzed associations between COVID-SCs and national COVID-19 surveillance data. COVID-SCs reflected national surveillance data: correlation was highest between COVID-SCs and both new PCR test positivity (correlation coefficient [r] = 0.73, 95% CI 0.56–0.84) and new cases (r = 0.72, 95% CI 0.54–0.83) during 2020–21 and with hospitalization rates among all ages (r = 0.81, 95% CI 0.67–0.89) during 2021–22. The numbers of reactive COVID-SCs during 2020–21 and 2021–22 greatly exceeded previously observed numbers of illness-related reactive school closures in the United States, notably being nearly 5-fold greater than reactive closures observed during the 2009 influenza (H1N1) pandemic.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Closure Learning for Nonlinear Model Reduction Using Deep Residual Neural Network

Developing accurate, efficient, and robust closure models is essential in the construction of reduced order models (ROMs) for realistic nonlinear systems, which generally require drastic ROM mode truncations. We propose a deep residual neural network (ResNet) closure learning framework for ROMs of nonlinear systems. The novel ResNet-ROM framework consists of two steps: (i) In the first step, we use ROM projection to filter the given nonlinear system and construct a spatially filtered ROM. This filtered ROM is low-dimensional, but is not closed. (ii) In the second step, we use ResNet to close the filtered ROM, i.e., to model the interaction between the resolved and unresolved ROM modes. We emphasize that in the new ResNet-ROM framework, data is used only to complement classical physical modeling (i.e., only in the closure modeling component), not to completely replace it. We also note that the new ResNet-ROM is built on general ideas of spatial filtering and deep learning and is independent of (restrictive) phenomenological arguments, e.g., of eddy viscosity type. The numerical experiments for the 1D Burgers equation show that the ResNet-ROM is significantly more accurate than the standard projection ROM. The new ResNet-ROM is also more accurate and significantly more efficient than other modern ROM closure models.

Xie, Xuping↗

Scientific machine learning for closure models in multiscale problems: A review

Here, closure problems are omnipresent when simulating multiscale systems, where some quantities and processes cannot be fully prescribed despite their effects on the simulation's accuracy. Recently, scientific machine learning approaches have been proposed as a way to tackle the closure problem, combining traditional (physics-based) modeling with data-driven (machine-learned) techniques, typically through enriching differential equations with neural networks. This paper reviews the different reduced model forms, distinguished by the degree to which they include known physics, and the different objectives of a priori and a posteriori learning. The importance of adhering to physical laws (such as symmetries and conservation laws) in choosing the reduced model form and choosing the learning method is discussed. The effect of spatial and temporal discretization and recent trends toward discretization-invariant models are reviewed. In addition, we make the connections between closure problems and several other research disciplines: inverse problems, Mori-Zwanzig theory, and multi-fidelity methods. In conclusion, much progress has been made with scientific machine learning approaches for solving closure problems, but many challenges remain. In particular, the generalizability and interpretability of learned models is a major issue that needs to be addressed further.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Effects of fineness and closure ratios on boattail drag of circular-arc-afterbody models with jet exhaust at Mach numbers up to 1.3

The effects of variations in fineness ratio and closure ratio on the boattail drag of circular-arc afterbody models were investigated at static conditions and at Mach numbers from 0.40 to 1.30. Jet total-pressure ratio was varied from jet off to about 6, depending on Mach number. Reynolds number based on model maximum diameter varied from about 1.2 million to 2.18 million. Angle of attack was varied from -4 deg to 8 deg. The results indicate that, at subsonic speeds before the drag rise and at a scheduled pressure ratio, the total drag (pressure plus calculated skin friction) is approximately equal for configurations with the same closure ratio. Also, for configurations with the same closure ratio, increasing fineness ratio results in an increased drag-rise Mach number; and for configurations with the same fineness ratio, increasing closure ratio results in an increased drag-rise Mach number.

Reubush, D. E.↗

A finite element analysis of fatigue crack closure

Experiments have shown that fatigue cracks close at positive loads during constant-amplitude load cycling. The crack-closure phenomenon is caused by residual plastic deformations remaining in the wake of an advancing crack tip. The present paper is concerned with the application of a two-dimensional, nonlinear, finite-element analysis for predicting crack-closure and crack-opening stresses during cyclic loading. A two-dimensional finite-element computer program, which accounts for both elastic-plastic material behavior and changing boundary conditions associated with crack extension and intermittent contact of the crack surfaces under cyclic loading, has been developed. An efficient technique to account for changing boundary conditions was also incorporated into the nonlinear analysis program. This program was subsequently used to study crack extension and crack closure under constant-amplitude and two-level block loading. The calculated crack-closure and crack-opening stresses were qualitatively consistent with experimental observations.

Newman, J. C., Jr.↗

Three-dimensional structures and turbulence closure of the wake developing in a wall shear layer

The turbulent wake interacting with the rotating wall shear layer is investigated analytically and numerically. The turbulent wakes of the rotating blades in a compressor which are interacting with the rotating hub-wall boundary layer are analyzed. A modified version of the closure model of the pressure-strain correlation term in the Reynolds stress transport equation is developed to predict the effect of rotation, which is appreciable for the present flow because the thick hub-wall boundary layer is interacting with the rotor wake. It is noted that the Poisson type equation for the pressure-strain correlation has an extra rotation term when the entire flow field is rotating. This extra rotation term is modeled to accommodate the effect of rotation. In addition, the standard correction for the wall effect is incorporated for the utilized Reynolds stress closure model. The rotation-modified Reynolds stress closure model is used to predict the present flow, and the predictions are compared with the experimental data. The experimental data reveal that the characteristics of the three-dimensional turbulent wake interacting with the wall shear layer are considerably altered by the effects of the wall and the rotation. These features are predicted with good accuracy by the turbulence closure model developed.

Hah, C.↗