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At least 199 records · Page 11

Environmental drivers of increased ecosystem respiration in a warming tundra

Abstract Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystems are large reservoirs of organic carbon 1,2 . Climate warming may stimulate ecosystem respiration and release carbon into the atmosphere 3,4 . The magnitude and persistency of this stimulation and the environmental mechanisms that drive its variation remain uncertain 5–7 . This hampers the accuracy of global land carbon–climate feedback projections 7,8 . Here we synthesize 136 datasets from 56 open-top chamber in situ warming experiments located at 28 arctic and alpine tundra sites which have been running for less than 1 year up to 25 years. We show that a mean rise of 1.4 °C [confidence interval (CI) 0.9–2.0 °C] in air and 0.4 °C [CI 0.2–0.7 °C] in soil temperature results in an increase in growing season ecosystem respiration by 30% [CI 22–38%] (n = 136). Our findings indicate that the stimulation of ecosystem respiration was due to increases in both plant-related and microbial respiration (n = 9) and continued for at least 25 years (n = 136). The magnitude of the warming effects on respiration was driven by variation in warming-induced changes in local soil conditions, that is, changes in total nitrogen concentration and pH and by context-dependent spatial variation in these conditions, in particular total nitrogen concentration and the carbon:nitrogen ratio. Tundra sites with stronger nitrogen limitations and sites in which warming had stimulated plant and microbial nutrient turnover seemed particularly sensitive in their respiration response to warming. The results highlight the importance of local soil conditions and warming-induced changes therein for future climatic impacts on respiration.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Real time monitoring of COVID-19 intervention effectiveness through contact tracing data

Communities worldwide have used vaccines and facemasks to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. When an individual opts to vaccinate or wear a mask, they may lower their own risk of becoming infected as well as the risk that they pose to others while infected. The first benefit–reducing susceptibility–has been established across multiple studies, while the second–reducing infectivity–is less well understood. Using a new statistical method, we estimate the efficacy of vaccines and facemasks at reducing both types of risks from contact tracing data collected in an urban setting. We find that vaccination reduced the risk of onward transmission by 40.7% [95% CI 25.8–53.2%] during the Delta wave and 31.0% [95% CI 19.4–40.9%] during the Omicron wave and that mask wearing reduced the risk of infection by 64.2% [95% CI 5.8–77.3%] during the Omicron wave. By harnessing commonly-collected contact tracing data, the approach can broadly provide timely and actionable estimates of intervention efficacy against a rapidly evolving pathogen.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Estimates of lithium mass yields from produced water sourced from the Devonian-aged Marcellus Shale

Abstract Decarbonatization initiatives have rapidly increased the demand for lithium. This study uses public waste compliance reports and Monte Carlo approaches to estimate total lithium mass yields from produced water (PW) sourced from the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania (PA). Statewide, Marcellus Shale PW has substantial extractable lithium, however, concentrations, production volumes and extraction efficiencies vary between the northeast and southwest operating zones. Annual estimates suggest statewide lithium mass yields of approximately 1160 (95% CI 1140–1180) metric tons (mt) per year. Production decline curve analysis on PW volumes reveal cumulative volumetric disparities between the northeast (median = 2.89 X 10 7 L/10-year) and southwest (median = 5.56 × 10 7 L/10-year) regions of the state, influencing lithium yield estimates of individual wells in southwest [2.90 (95% CI 2.80–2.99) mt/10-year] and northeast [1.96 (CI 1.86–2.07) mt/10-year] PA. Moreover, Mg/Li mass ratios vary regionally, where NE PA are low Mg/Li fluids, having a median Mg/Li mass ratio of 5.39 (IQR, 2.66–7.26) and SW PA PW is higher with a median Mg/Li mass ratio of 17.8 (IQR, 14.3–20.7). These estimates indicate substantial lithium yields from Marcellus PW, though regional variability in chemistry and production may impact recovery efficiencies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of the excitation spectra with diffusion Monte Carlo on an auxiliary bosonic ground state

We aim to improve upon the variational Monte Carlo (VMC) approach for excitations replacing the Jastrow factor by an auxiliary bosonic (AB) ground state and multiplying it by a fermionic component factor. The instantaneous change in imaginary time of an arbitrary excitation in the original interacting fermionic system is obtained by measuring observables via the ground-state distribution of walkers of an AB system that is subject to an auxiliary effective potential. The effective potential is used to (i) drive the AB system’s ground-state configuration space toward the configuration space of the excitations of the original fermionic system and (ii) subtract from a diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) calculation contributions that can be included in conventional approximations, such as mean-field and configuration interaction (CI) methods. In this novel approach, the AB ground state is treated statistically in DMC, whereas the fermionic component of the original system is expanded in a basis. The excitation energies of the fermionic eigenstates are obtained by sampling a fermion–boson coupling term on the AB ground state. We show that this approach can take advantage of and correct for approximate eigenstates obtained via mean-field calculations or truncated interactions. We demonstrate that the AB ground-state factor incorporates the correlations missed by standard Jastrow factors, further reducing basis truncation errors. Relevant parts of the theory have been tested in soluble model systems and exhibit excellent agreement with exact analytical data and CI and VMC approaches. In particular, for limited basis set expansions and sufficient statistics, AB approaches outperform CI and VMC in terms of basis size for the same systems. The implementation of this method in current codes, despite being demanding, will be facilitated by reusing procedures already developed for calculating ground-state properties with DMC and excitations with VMC.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Symptoms and Systemic Drug Reactions in Persons Receiving Weekly Rifapentine Plus Isoniazid (3HP) Treatment for Latent Tuberculosis Infection

Abstract Background Three months of weekly rifapentine plus isoniazid (3HP) therapy for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is recommended worldwide. The development of symptoms and systemic drug reactions (SDRs) on 3HP have not been fully characterized. We aimed to determine the patterns of symptom development and identify SDRs and associated factors in patients taking 3HP. Methods We analyzed symptoms data in participants receiving 3HP in the Tuberculosis Trials Consortium's iAdhere study (Study 33). We examined the patterns of symptom reporting across participants from baseline and 4 monthly visits. Bivariate analyses and multivariable regression models were used to identify factors associated with SDRs. Risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Results Among 1002 participants receiving 3HP, 768 (77%) reported at least 1 symptom; 97% of these symptoms were grade 1 (79%) or grade 2 (18%). Most symptoms developed in the first month and resolved. A total of 111 (11%) participants had symptoms that met criteria for SDRs; however, 53 (48%) of these participants completed therapy. Factors associated with SDRs and discontinuation included female sex (RR: 2.05; 95% CI: 1.19–3.54), age ≥45 years (RR: 1.99; 95% CI: 1.19–3.31), and use of concomitant medications (RR: 2.26; 95% CI: 1.15–4.42). Conclusions Although most patients receiving 3HP reported symptoms, most were mild, occurred early, and resolved without stopping treatment. Among patients experiencing SDRs, nearly half were able to complete therapy. Patient and provider education should focus on differentiating severe reactions where 3HP should be stopped from minor symptoms that will resolve. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT01582711.

Immunology↗

Lipoprotein(a) is associated with the onset but not the progression of aortic valve calcification

Abstract Aim Lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] is a potential causal factor in the pathogenesis of aortic valve disease. However, the relationship of Lp(a) with new onset and progression of aortic valve calcium (AVC) has not been studied. The purpose of the study was to assess whether high serum levels of Lp(a) are associated with AVC incidence and progression. Methods and results A total of 922 individuals from the population-based Rotterdam Study (mean age 66.0±4.2 years, 47.7% men), whose Lp(a) measurements were available, underwent non-enhanced cardiac computed tomography imaging at baseline and after a median follow-up of 14.0 [interquartile range (IQR) 13.9–14.2] years. New-onset AVC was defined as an AVC score >0 on the follow-up scan in the absence of AVC on the first scan. Progression was defined as the absolute difference in AVC score between the baseline and follow-up scan. Logistic and linear regression analyses were performed to evaluate the relationship of Lp(a) with baseline, new onset, and progression of AVC. All analyses were corrected for age, sex, body mass index, smoking, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, and creatinine. AVC progression was analysed conditional on baseline AVC score expressed as restricted cubic splines. Of the 702 individuals without AVC at baseline, 415 (59.1%) developed new-onset AVC on the follow-up scan. In those with baseline AVC, median annual progression was 13.5 (IQR = 5.2–37.8) Agatston units (AU). Lipoprotein(a) concentration was independently associated with baseline AVC [odds ratio (OR) 1.43 for each 50 mg/dL higher Lp(a); 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.15–1.79] and new-onset AVC (OR 1.30 for each 50 mg/dL higher Lp(a); 95% CI 1.02–1.65), but not with AVC progression (β: −71 AU for each 50 mg/dL higher Lp(a); 95% CI −117; 35). Only baseline AVC score was significantly associated with AVC progression (P < 0.001). Conclusion In the population-based Rotterdam Study, Lp(a) is robustly associated with baseline and new-onset AVC but not with AVC progression, suggesting that Lp(a)-lowering interventions may be most effective in pre-calcific stages of aortic valve disease.

Kaiser, Yannick (ORCID:0000000168690042)↗

Combining Machine Learning and Comparative Effectiveness Methodology to Study Primary Care Pharmacotherapy Pathways for Veterans With Depression

Our objective is to demonstrate an innovative method combining machine learning with comparative effectiveness research techniques and to investigate a hitherto unstudied question about the effectiveness of common prescribing patterns. For Operation Enduring Freedom/Operation Iraqi Freedom veterans with major depressive disorder, we generate pharmacotherapy pathways (of antidepressants) using process mining and machine learning. We select the medication episodes that were started at subtherapeutic doses by the first assigned primary care physician and observe the paths that those medication episodes follow. Using 2-stage least squares, we test the effectiveness of starting at a low dose and staying low for longer versus ramping up fast while balancing observable and unobservable characteristics of patients and providers through instrumental variables. We leverage predetermined provider practice patterns as instruments. We collected outpatient pharmacy data for selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and selective norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors, patient and provider characteristics (as control variables), and the instruments for our cohort. All data were extracted for the period between 2006 and 2020. There is a statistically significant positive effect (0.68, 95% CI 0.11–1.25) of “ramping up fast” on engagement in care. When we examine the effect of “ramping up slow”, we see an insignificant negative impact on engagement in care (−0.82, 95% CI −1.89 to 0.25). As expected, the probability of drop-out also seems to have a negative effect on engagement in care (−0.39, 95% CI −0.94 to 0.17). We further validate these results by testing with medication possession ratios calculated periodically as an alternative engagement in care metric. Our findings contradict the “Start low, go slow” adage, indicating that ramping up the dose of an antidepressant faster has a significantly positive effect on engagement in care for our population.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Relativistic configuration-interaction and many-body-perturbation-theory calculations of U i hyperfine constants

Neutral uranium (U i) is a very difficult atom for theoretical calculations due to a large number (six) of valence electrons, strong valence-valence and valence-core correlations, high density of states, and relativistic effects. Configuration-interaction many-body perturbation theory (CI-MBPT) can efficiently treat valence-core correlations and relativistic effects, but because the formalism was developed for a Dirac-Hartree-Fock (DHF) starting potential that does not contain valence electrons, quite large CI space is needed to compensate for the + 6 charge of such a potential. Much more efficient is the relativistic configuration-interaction (RCI) approach, which uses a relatively accurate starting DHF potential that includes some valence electrons to make the valence-electron Hamiltonian diagonally dominated for some states. Here we report calculations of U i hyperfine constants of several low-energy states using the RCI method with the starting potential that includes four f valence electrons. With this starting potential, it is possible to use the single-configuration approximation or small basis sets to obtain quite accurate results for hyperfine-structure constants. In fact, by scaling the nuclear magnetic moment, the agreement for five levels was within 5% and a new magnetic moment can be recommended, 0.43(2). When two states are mixed, it is difficult to predict the exact mixing fractions, so in this case we proposed a method in which the mixing fraction is found by optimization of one parameter in the MBPT correction to obtain correct g factors. The resulting hyperfine constants are significantly improved. Finally, the CI-MBPT approach was also tested, with some success for low-energy states, with the limited basis set. The methods investigated here can be further developed to include more extensive data sets to improve accuracy and can be applied to other atoms and for calculations of other properties, for example, relevant to fundamental symmetry tests.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Factors associated with treatment limitations in two Swedish intensive care units: Prevalence and patient involvement

Abstract The aim was to study the prevalence, documentation, and patient involvement in treatment limitations (TLs) in two Swedish intensive care units (ICUs). All patients admitted to the ICUs of two Swedish regional hospitals in 2019 were screened for inclusion. Exclusion criteria included postanesthesia care <24 h. Patients were identified using the Swedish Intensive Care Registry (SIR) and data were extracted from SIR and hospital charts. Uni‐ and multivariable logistic analysis was performed to investigate associations with the presence of TLs. A total of 3090 patients were admitted to the two ICUs in 2019. After exclusion, 1019 patients were included in the study. 45.5% were women and the mean age was 62.9 years. 26.5% of the patients had one or several TLs. Age (OR 1.04 per one year increase 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02–1.05), SAPS3‐score (OR 1.08 per one unit increase 95% CI 1.06–1.09) and ICU length of stay (OR 1.11 per one day increase 95% CI 1.05–1.17) were independently associated with an increased likelihood of receiving a TL. 17% of the patients were involved in the decision‐making process and in >30% of cases neither the patient nor next‐of‐kin were informed. Women were to a larger extent involved in the decision process than men (24.5 vs. 12.5% p < .05). When the intensivist documented why a TL was established, patient autonomy was four times more commonly stated as the motivation for the TL among women compared to men (15.5% vs. 3.8% p < .05). TLs were common in two Swedish ICUs but a substantial number of patients and next‐of‐kin were not involved in the decision‐making process or informed of the decision. Women were more often than men engaged in the decision to establish a TL.

Jönsson, Nino↗

MAFLD identifies patients with significant hepatic fibrosis better than NAFLD

Abstract Background & Aims Diagnostic criteria for metabolic associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) have been proposed, but not validated. We aimed to compare the diagnostic accuracy of the MAFLD definition vs the existing NAFLD criteria to identify patients with significant fibrosis and to characterize the impact of mild alcohol intake. Methods We enrolled 765 Japanese patients with fatty liver (median age 54 years). MAFLD and NAFLD were diagnosed in 79.6% and 70.7% of patients respectively. Significant fibrosis was defined by FIB‐4 index ≥1.3 and liver stiffness ≥6.6 kPa using shear wave elastography. Mild alcohol intake was defined as <20 g/day. Factors associated with significant fibrosis were analysed by logistic regression and decision‐tree analyses. Results Liver stiffness was higher in MAFLD compared to NAFLD (7.7 vs 6.8 kPa, P = .0010). In logistic regression, MAFLD (OR 4.401; 95% CI 2.144‐10.629; P < .0001), alcohol intake (OR 1.761; 95% CI 1.081‐2.853; P = .0234), and NAFLD (OR 1.721; 95%CI 1.009‐2.951; P = .0463) were independently associated with significant fibrosis. By decision‐tree analysis, MAFLD, but not NAFLD or alcohol consumption was the initial classifier for significant fibrosis. The sensitivity for detecting significant fibrosis was higher for MAFLD than NAFLD (93.9% vs 73.0%). In patients with MAFLD, even mild alcohol intake was associated with an increase in the prevalence of significant fibrosis (25.0% vs 15.5%; P = .0181). Conclusions The MAFLD definition better identifies a group with fatty liver and significant fibrosis evaluated by non‐invasive tests. Moreover, in patients with MAFLD, even mild alcohol consumption is associated with worsening of hepatic fibrosis measures.

Yamamura, Sakura↗

Mineralogy and petrology of fine‐grained samples recovered from the asteroid (162173) Ryugu

Abstract Samples returned from the carbonaceous asteroid (162173) Ryugu by the Hayabusa2 mission revealed that Ryugu is composed of materials consistent with CI chondrites and some types of space weathering. We report detailed mineralogy of the fine‐grained Ryugu samples allocated to our “Sand” team and report additional space weathering features found on the grains. The dominant mineralogy is composed of a fine‐grained mixture of Mg‐rich saponite and serpentine, magnetite, pyrrhotite, pentlandite, dolomite, and Fe‐bearing magnesite. These grains have mineralogy comparable to that of CI chondrites, showing severe aqueous alteration but lacking ferrihydrite and sulfate. These results are similar to previous works on large Ryugu grains. In addition to the major minerals, we also find many minerals that are rare or have not been reported among CI chondrites. Accessory minerals identified are hydroxyapatite, Mg‐Na phosphate, olivine, low‐Ca pyroxene, Mg‐Al spinel, chromite, manganochromite, eskolaite, ilmenite, cubanite, polydymite, transjordanite, schreibersite, calcite, moissanite, and poorly crystalline phyllosilicate. We also show scanning transmission electron microscope and scanning electron microscope compositional maps and images of some space‐weathered grains and severely heated and melted grains. Although our mineralogical results are consistent with that of millimeter‐sized grains, the fine‐grained fraction is best suited to investigate impact‐induced space weathering.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Electronic Absorption Spectroscopy and Photochemistry of Criegee Intermediates

Interest in Criegee intermediates (CIs), often termed carbonyl oxides, and their role in tropospheric chemistry has grown massively since the demonstration of laboratory-based routes to their formation and characterization in the gas phase. This article reviews current knowledge regarding the electronic spectroscopy of atmospherically relevant CIs like CH 2 OO, CH 3 CHOO, (CH 3 ) 2 COO and larger CIs like methyl vinyl ketone oxide and methacrolein oxide that are formed in the ozonolysis of isoprene, and of selected conjugated carbene-derived CIs of interest in the synthetic chemistry community. Of the aforementioned atmospherically relevant CIs, all except CH 2 OO and (CH 3 ) 2 COO exist in different conformers which, under tropospheric conditions, can display strikingly different thermal loss rates via unimolecular and bimolecular processes. Calculated photolysis rates based on their absorption properties suggest that solar photolysis will rarely be a significant contributor to the total loss rate for any CI under tropospheric conditions. Nonetheless, there is ever-growing interest in the absorption cross sections and primary photochemistry of CIs following excitation to the strongly absorbing 1 ππ* state, and how this varies with CI, with conformer and with excitation wavelength. Furthermore, the later part of this review surveys the photochemical data reported to date, including a range of studies that demonstrate prompt photo-induced fission of the terminal O–O bond, and speculates about possible alternate decay processes that could occur following non-adiabatic coupling to, and dissociation from, highly internally excited levels of the electronic ground state of a CI.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Ryugu's nucleosynthetic heritage from the outskirts of the Solar System

Little is known about the origin of the spectral diversity of asteroids and what it says about conditions in the protoplanetary disk. Here we show that samples returned from Cb­type asteroid Ryugu have Fe isotopic anomalies indistinguishable from Ivuna­type (CI) chondrites, which are distinct from all other carbonaceous chondrites. Iron isotopes, therefore, demonstrate that Ryugu and CI chondrites formed in a reservoir that was different from the source regions of other carbonaceous asteroids. Growth and migration of the giant planets destabilized nearby planetesimals and ejected some inwards to be implanted into the Main Belt. In this framework, most carbonaceous chondrites may have originated from regions around the birthplaces of Jupiter and Saturn, while the distinct isotopic composition of CI chondrites and Ryugu may reflect their formation further away in the disk, owing their presence in the inner Solar System to excitation by Uranus and Neptune

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Predicting variable gene content in Escherichia coli using conserved genes

Having the ability to predict the protein-encoding gene content of an incomplete genome or metagenome-assembled genome is important for a variety of bioinformatic tasks. In this study, as a proof of concept, we built machine learning classifiers for predicting variable gene content in Escherichia coli genomes using only the nucleotide k-mers from a set of 100 conserved genes as features. Protein families were used to define orthologs, and a single classifier was built for predicting the presence or absence of each protein family occurring in 10%–90% of all E. coli genomes. The resulting set of 3,259 extreme gradient boosting classifiers had a per-genome average macro F1 score of 0.944 [0.943–0.945, 95% CI]. We show that the F1 scores are stable across multi-locus sequence types and that the trend can be recapitulated by sampling a smaller number of core genes or diverse input genomes. Surprisingly, the presence or absence of poorly annotated proteins, including “hypothetical proteins” was accurately predicted (F1 = 0.902 [0.898–0.906, 95% CI]). Models for proteins with horizontal gene transfer-related functions had slightly lower F1 scores but were still accurate (F1s = 0.895, 0.872, 0.824, and 0.841 for transposon, phage, plasmid, and antimicrobial resistance-related functions, respectively). Finally, using a holdout set of 419 diverse E. coli genomes that were isolated from freshwater environmental sources, we observed an average per-genome F1 score of 0.880 [0.876–0.883, 95% CI], demonstrating the extensibility of the models. Overall, this study provides a framework for predicting variable gene content using a limited amount of input sequence data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Excess deaths reveal unequal impact of COVID-19 in Ecuador

Latin America has struggled to control the transmission of COVID-19. Comparison of excess death (ED) rates during the pandemic reveals that Ecuador is among the highest impacted countries. In this analysis, we update our previous findings with the most complete all-cause mortality records available for 2020, disaggregated by sex, age, ethnicity and geography. Our study shows that in 2020, Ecuador had a 64% ED rate (95% CI 63% to 65%) or 64% more deaths than expected. Men had a higher ED rate, 75% (95% CI 73% to 76%), than women’s 51% (95% CI 49% to 52%), and this pattern of higher EDs for men than women held for most age groups. The only exception was the 20–29 age group, where women had 19% more deaths, compared to 10% more deaths for men, but that difference is not statistically significant. The analysis provides striking evidence of the lack of COVID-19 diagnostic testing in Ecuador: the confirmed COVID-19 deaths in 2020 accounted for only 21% of total EDs. Our significant finding is that indigenous populations, who typically account for about 5% of the deaths, show almost four times the ED rate of the majority mestizo group. Indigenous women in each age group have higher ED rates than the general population and, in ages between 20 and 49 years, they have higher ED rates than indigenous men. Indigenous women in the age group 20–29 years had an ED rate of 141%, which is commensurate to the ED rate of indigenous women older than 40 years.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Trivalent mosaic or consensus HIV immunogens prime humoral and broader cellular immune responses in adults

Mosaic and consensus HIV-1 immunogens provide two distinct approaches to elicit greater breadth of coverage against globally circulating HIV-1 and have shown improved immunologic breadth in nonhuman primate models. This double-blind randomized trial enrolled 105 healthy HIV-uninfected adults who received 3 doses of either a trivalent global mosaic, a group M consensus (CON-S), or a natural clade B (Nat-B) gp160 env DNA vaccine followed by 2 doses of a heterologous modified vaccinia Ankara–vectored HIV-1 vaccine or placebo. We performed prespecified blinded immunogenicity analyses at day 70 and day 238 after the first immunization. T cell responses to vaccine antigens and 5 heterologous Env variants were fully mapped. Env-specific CD4 + T cell responses were induced in 71% of the mosaic vaccine recipients versus 48% of the CON-S recipients and 48% of the natural Env recipients. The mean number of T cell epitopes recognized was 2.5 (95% CI, 1.2–4.2) for mosaic recipients, 1.6 (95% CI, 0.82–2.6) for CON-S recipients, and 1.1 (95% CI, 0.62–1.71) for Nat-B recipients. Mean breadth was significantly greater in the mosaic group than in the Nat-B group using overall (P = 0.014), prime-matched (P = 0.002), heterologous (P = 0.046), and boost-matched (P = 0.009) measures. Overall T cell breadth was largely due to Env-specific CD4 + T cell responses. Priming with a mosaic antigen significantly increased the number of epitopes recognized by Env-specific T cells and enabled more, albeit still limited, cross-recognition of heterologous variants. Mosaic and consensus immunogens are promising approaches to address global diversity of HIV-1.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Large-Eddy Simulations of Convection Initiation over Heterogeneous, Low Terrain

Abstract Large-eddy simulations are conducted to investigate and physically interpret the impacts of heterogeneous, low terrain on deep-convection initiation (CI). The simulations are based on a case of shallow-to-deep convective transition over the Amazon River basin, and use idealized terrains with varying levels of ruggedness. The terrain is designed by specifying its power-spectral shape in wavenumber space, inverting to physical space assuming random phases for all wave modes, and scaling the terrain to have a peak height of 200 m. For the case in question, these modest terrain fields expedite CI by up to 2–3 h, largely due to the impacts of the terrain on the size of, and subcloud support for, incipient cumuli. Terrain-induced circulations enhance subcloud kinetic energy on the mesoscale, which is realized as wider and longer-lived subcloud circulations. When the updraft branches of these circulations breach the level of free convection, they initiate wider and more persistent cumuli that subsequently undergo less entrainment-induced cloud dilution and detrainment-induced mass loss. As a result, the clouds become more vigorous and penetrate deeper into the troposphere. Larger-scale terrains are more effective than smaller-scale terrains in promoting CI because they induce larger enhancements in both the width and the persistence of subcloud updrafts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The 6-minute walk test predicts mortality in a pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacteria-predominant bronchiectasis cohort

Background: Bronchiectasis is a chronic lung condition frequently associated with nontuberculous mycobacteria pulmonary (NTM) disease. Persons with these conditions are at increased risk of mortality. Patient reported outcome (PRO) instruments and the 6-minute walk test (6MWT) have been shown to predict mortality for several lung conditions, but these measures have not been fully evaluated for bronchiectasis and NTM. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among adult patients enrolled in a natural history study of bronchiectasis at the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. Electronic medical records were queried for demographic, clinical, microbiologic, radiographic, and PRO instrument data: St. George’s Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), Medical Research Council Dyspnea Scale, and the Pulmonary Symptom Severity Score (PSSS). The study baseline date was defined as the patient’s first visit after January 1st, 2015 with a SGRQ or 6MWT completed. Follow-up was defined as the interval between the study baseline visit and date of death or December 31st, 2019. Sex-stratified Cox proportional-hazards regression was conducted to identify predictors of mortality. Separate models were run for each PRO and 6MWT measure, controlling for age, body mass index (BMI), fibrocavitary disease status, and M. abscessus infection. Results: In multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression models, the PSSS-severity (aHR 1.29, 95% CI 1.04–1.59), the 6MWT total distance walked (aHR 0.938, 95% CI 0.896–0.981) and distance saturation product (aHR 0.930, 95% CI 0.887–0.974) independently predicted mortality. In addition, BMI was significantly predictive of mortality in all models. Conclusions: The 6MWT and a PRO instrument capturing symptom severity are independently predictive of mortality in our cohort of bronchiectasis patients.

6-minute walk test↗